What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson Saints (4 Viewers)

matuski said:
Love the player, not ready to pay his price in redraft/auction.
Click to expand...
LOL yeah well the price is going up. He should be the 3rd player off the board in PPR drafts. I anticipate 12-15 carries a game which is on the low side for a RB1 but his targets in the passing game are going to more than make up for it. 70 catches easy in that offense.......

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If Ellington if finally healthy... he's always hurt...but he looks faster and very capable of taking it the distance... its a better football idea to rotate all backs and not run DJ into the ground .. people are gonna be pissed when they realized they over paid for DJ... DRE is going to eat into those RB1 dream stats you guys are envisioning 

 
I know its just one preseason game, but it makes me nervous when DJ is pulled for CJ2K as soon as they get in the red zone.  The rest of the ones were still out there, so looks like they either wanted to see CJ with the 1's or CJ is the red zone back like BA did with Ellington and Mendenhall a couple years ago.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I know its just one preseason game, but it makes me nervous when DJ is pulled for CJ2K as soon as they get in the red zone.  The rest of the ones were still out there, so looks like they either wanted to see CJ with the 1's or CJ is the red zone back like BA did with Ellington and Mendenhall a couple years ago.
Click to expand...
I believe dj pulled himself out after torching the defense

 
abbottjamesr said:
I know its just one preseason game, but it makes me nervous when DJ is pulled for CJ2K as soon as they get in the red zone.  The rest of the ones were still out there, so looks like they either wanted to see CJ with the 1's or CJ is the red zone back like BA did with Ellington and Mendenhall a couple years ago.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I'd read too much in to DJ leaving the field after his third carry. He'd made short work of the defense already and my first thought when he ran off to the sideline was "yeah, he's not coming back on again, they've seen enough".

 
oswizzle said:
If Ellington if finally healthy... he's always hurt...but he looks faster and very capable of taking it the distance... its a better football idea to rotate all backs and not run DJ into the ground .. people are gonna be pissed when they realized they over paid for DJ... DRE is going to eat into those RB1 dream stats you guys are envisioning 
Click to expand...
Have you followed the Cardinals/Arians/Ellington closely? Arians is not a big fan of Ellington and sees him as a situational player. He's not going to steal meaningful touches from DJ.

 
kutta said:
Have you followed the Cardinals/Arians/Ellington closely? Arians is not a big fan of Ellington and sees him as a situational player. He's not going to steal meaningful touches from DJ.
Click to expand...
I watched All or Nothing (the whole season) and it didn't seem like Arians liked that Ellington couldn't stay on the field due to injury. 

Johnson had them on skates last night, as somebody so eloquently put it. 

He looks like a big-time pro, though I'm not sure about where he goes in fantasy redraft.  

 
kutta said:
Have you followed the Cardinals/Arians/Ellington closely? Arians is not a big fan of Ellington and sees him as a situational player. He's not going to steal meaningful touches from DJ.
Click to expand...
He was the starter all 12 games he played in 2014 and played hurt for most of them.  Maybe Arians doesn't trust Ellington to stay healthy but if he didn't like Ellington you would have thought they would have either added someone or drafted someone following the 2013 season.  Ellington and CJ were the two starters last year to begin the season as well.  

It will be interesting to see how the next preseason games play out.  I don't disagree that DJ is talented, I just don't think Ellington and CJ are that much if any worse.  I didn't see anything DJ did that CJ or Ellington couldn't have done in that game.  

I worry we may be a year early on DJ as a top 5 fantasy player.  

 
abbottjamesr said:
He was the starter all 12 games he played in 2014 and played hurt for most of them.  Maybe Arians doesn't trust Ellington to stay healthy but if he didn't like Ellington you would have thought they would have either added someone or drafted someone following the 2013 season.  Ellington and CJ were the two starters last year to begin the season as well.  

It will be interesting to see how the next preseason games play out.  I don't disagree that DJ is talented, I just don't think Ellington and CJ are that much if any worse.  I didn't see anything DJ did that CJ or Ellington couldn't have done in that game.  

I worry we may be a year early on DJ as a top 5 fantasy player.  
Click to expand...
Huh? Ellington played well in his limited role in 2013, then he looked like garbage with an expanded role in 2014, which prompted them to sign C. and draft D. Johnson.

The bolded is just silly IMO. Those guys are certainly going to get some touches this year (no RB gets close to all of them), but DJ is head and shoulders better than they are.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Explain to me again how teams like to leave their best player on the sideline because that gives them the best chance to win???

 
Way too much overthinking in this thread. This guy is a pure stud in one of the best Offenses in the league.  You should be drooling over that, not making excuses or trying to pick nits.  

When I see posts like I am seeing from the naysayers in this thread, it only solidifies it more to me: it's just the majority who know they can't touch him in their leagues so they downplay it.  Not saying that to be snarky, just being honest.  I think we all do it.

 
Milkman said:
It means there is no shot David Johnson isn't going to be on the field enough to put up RB1 numbers this year. Not a chance because he gives them the best chance to win. David Johnson is Arizona's best player.
Click to expand...
Arizona has incredible depth at the rb position.   DJ should be a complete beast. No rb dominates all the touches. I expect DJ to get the lions share though

 
I might a got a bit ahead of my self on the Ellington is as good as DJ.  But both CJ and Ellington are serviceable backs and I think it limits the upside of DJ enough that he is not worth a first round pick to me.  I think DJ is going to be a stud, but I worry it's not going to be this year.  

 
As others have mentioned, no RB is going to get all the touches.

Arians said that DJ can carry the ball 25 times and catch the ball another 15, but he doesn't want to run him into the ground. So let's say he gets 20-22 carries and 3-5 catches a game. That's as much as just about any other RB out there. With Arizona's offense and defense, the touches should more than be there for DJ.

And when the games are close/running out the clock, or the team is at the stripe, DJ rather than the more diminutive CJ and Ellington is likely going to get the ball.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
zamboni said:
As others have mentioned, no RB is going to get all the touches.

Arians said that DJ can carry the ball 25 times and catch the ball another 15, but he doesn't want to run him into the ground. So let's say he gets 20-22 carries and 3-5 catches a game. That's as much as just about any other RB out there. With Arizona's offense and defense, the touches should more than be there for DJ.

And when the games are close/running out the clock, or the team is at the stripe, DJ rather than the more diminutive CJ and Ellington is likely going to get the ball.
Click to expand...
I'm projecting more like 15 carries and 3 rec a game.  

 
abbottjamesr said:
I might a got a bit ahead of my self on the Ellington is as good as DJ.  But both CJ and Ellington are serviceable backs and I think it limits the upside of DJ enough that he is not worth a first round pick to me.  I think DJ is going to be a stud, but I worry it's not going to be this year.  
Click to expand...
Gotta disagree......I think the depth actually helps him stay fresh......let's not forget what he did last season with limited touches.......this dude is electric.

 
DJ averaged 6.25 targets the last 4 games......and he had 57 receptions last year in a part time roll. Barring injury he's in line for 70+ catches. 

It's time to get excited. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
zamboni said:
As others have mentioned, no RB is going to get all the touches.

Arians said that DJ can carry the ball 25 times and catch the ball another 15, but he doesn't want to run him into the ground. So let's say he gets 20-22 carries and 3-5 catches a game. That's as much as just about any other RB out there. With Arizona's offense and defense, the touches should more than be there for DJ.

And when the games are close/running out the clock, or the team is at the stripe, DJ rather than the more diminutive CJ and Ellington is likely going to get the ball.
Click to expand...
A RB getting 368 or more touches has happened 2.3 times per season since 1960 and 3.2 times per season since 2005.  I guess DJ has as much chance as anyone of hitting that mark but I wouldn't count on it.

A RB getting 432 or more touches has happened 12 times since 1960 and only three times since 2005.  I think it is highly unlikely that DJ joins that club.  Arians doesn't want to do that to him and has explicitly stated that point. 

 
If Ellington and CJ play well in whatever role they're given.. it makes much more football sense to keep DJ fresh for late season and playoff .. A healthy Ellington can take it to the house on any play.. isnt he also UFA after this season? those guys tend to play hard :)

 
abbottjamesr said:
I might a got a bit ahead of my self on the Ellington is as good as DJ.  But both CJ and Ellington are serviceable backs and I think it limits the upside of DJ enough that he is not worth a first round pick to me.  I think DJ is going to be a stud, but I worry it's not going to be this year.  
Click to expand...
Chester Taylor lives!!

 
abbottjamesr said:
I might a got a bit ahead of my self on the Ellington is as good as DJ.  But both CJ and Ellington are serviceable backs and I think it limits the upside of DJ enough that he is not worth a first round pick to me.  I think DJ is going to be a stud, but I worry it's not going to be this year.  
Click to expand...
He was a stud last year. 

 
zamboni said:
So let's say he gets 20-22 carries and 3-5 catches a game.
Click to expand...
This is where I think people are overestimating usage.

How many games did he even get 10 carries last year?  3 or 4 maybe. We are making the jump from that to 23-27 touches per game?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Is it nuts to consider this guy #1 overall in standard? I drew number one in my local league (standard scoring) and i'm considering him even over Brown. It's really between the 2 of them. Simply because there are a lot of nice WR options available at the 2/3 turn like Marshall, Cooks, DT, Evans, Hilton etc but the RB's there make me green and they only get worse after that. I may change my mind several times before draft night but right now, DJ+Marshall/Cooks looks better to me than Brown+CJA/Marshall. I guess if I knew Ingram or McCoy would definitely be there, might be different.

 
matuski said:
This is where I think people are overestimating usage.

How many games did he even get 10 carries last year?  3 or 4 maybe. We are making the jump from that to 23-27 touches per game?
Click to expand...
During the games he was the starter, he received 24, 24, 33, 12, 14, 21, 24 touches (includes the 2 playoff games). That is an average of 21.7 During the weeks where CJ was the healthy starter, he averaged 20 touches per game. The interesting part of the equation is Andre Ellington. CJ's touches went from 20 to 17 when AE was playing. The Cards barely used AE during the 2 playoff games. He touched the ball 3 times the whole playoffs so you saw DJ get 21 and 24 touches in those games. For some reason in wee 16, AE saw 8 touches to DJ's 12. Not sure why the even split. I think it is fair to expect the Cards to use their RBs a lot and for DJ to be the primary guy. However, I don't think we see DJ average 20+ touches as long as AE and CJ are healthy. 

 
Milkman said:
Tough choice but best offense in the league or worst. You're picking the worst. 
Click to expand...
They have Gurley,  so they're not the worst. And Cardinals aren't the best.  I can see reasons behind taking either one.  I don't like spending a first round pick on a rb much anyway, especially one who hasn't done much.  He could turn out and blow up,  though. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
matuski said:
This is where I think people are overestimating usage.

How many games did he even get 10 carries last year?  3 or 4 maybe. We are making the jump from that to 23-27 touches per game?
Click to expand...
Ok then - maybe an exaggeration. Figure around 18-20 touches a week, more when the Cards are grinding it out late in the game and likely the goal line looks. Even if CJ and Ellington get some touches, there's a lot of upside there for DJ.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s said:
During the games he was the starter, he received 24, 24, 33, 12, 14, 21, 24 touches (includes the 2 playoff games). That is an average of 21.7 During the weeks where CJ was the healthy starter, he averaged 20 touches per game. The interesting part of the equation is Andre Ellington. CJ's touches went from 20 to 17 when AE was playing. The Cards barely used AE during the 2 playoff games. He touched the ball 3 times the whole playoffs so you saw DJ get 21 and 24 touches in those games. For some reason in wee 16, AE saw 8 touches to DJ's 12. Not sure why the even split. I think it is fair to expect the Cards to use their RBs a lot and for DJ to be the primary guy. However, I don't think we see DJ average 20+ touches as long as AE and CJ are healthy. 
Click to expand...
If I recall Ellington had a foot injury in the playoffs?  Regardless, I get projecting a large increase in carries, I'm just leery of projecting that much.

 
flapgreen said:
They have Gurley,  so they're not the worst. And Cardinals aren't the best.  I can see reasons behind taking either one.  I don't like spending a first round pick on a rb much anyway, especially one who hasn't done much.  He could turn out and blow up,  though. 
Click to expand...
Yeah it was a little bit of hyperbole but you get the idea. Gurley is a great talent though.....

 
zamboni said:
Ok then - maybe an exaggeration. Figure around 20 touches a week, more when the Cards are grinding it out late in the game and likely the goal line looks. Even if CJ and Ellington get some touches, there's a lot of upside there for DJ.
Click to expand...
Even 18 touches when 4-5 are catches will make him the #1 RB in PPR. 

 
msudaisy26 said:
Unless there are major injuries to the receivers and running backs there is no way Johnson is catching 65 to 80 passes. 
Click to expand...
I disagree. He caught 57 playing part time last year and he is Arizona's best player by far. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Milkman said:
Yeah it was a little bit of hyperbole but you get the idea. Gurley is a great talent though.....
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be surprised if either one of them came out on top.  I just feel there is a lot more value with ppr rbs in middle rounds and nothing near the wrs you can get in top 10 later. 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JohnnyU
Is the 2024 RB Class really that bad?
2 3
Replies
116
Views
5K
Soulfly3
Soulfly3
Joe Bryant
Ben Johnson - Bobby Slowik and "Hope"
Replies
24
Views
729
GregR
GregR
Max Power
NFL Teams asking for Forensic Accounting of NIL Money
Replies
27
Views
717
Bri
B

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 5 (members: 0, guests: 5)
Top