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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)

Faust said:
I thought that you were giving him the Taylor Swift treatment (aka your roster was never ever getting back together with Lockett).

 I was worried that I was going to need to be persuasive in having you give Lockett one more chance.

jk
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Fell to the 6.05 spot. What a flex player. :o  

it’s more like Rick Ashley - “never gonna give you up 🎶 “

 
DocHolliday said:
Hope that you are correct.  I've never been a fan of Lockett but not for a particular reason.  Will be fun to own this season as a change of pace. 
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His slot efficiency is just nutty. But that was where Baldwin lived.

now they’ve got Jaron Brown & (hopefully) Metcalf on the perimeter & Lockett will live in the slot. 

That offense will run through Carson & Lockett. He was one of the best WR values this year IMO. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
His slot efficiency is just nutty. But that was where Baldwin lived.

now they’ve got Jaron Brown & (hopefully) Metcalf on the perimeter & Baldwin will live in the slot. 

That offense will run through Carson & Lockett. He was one of the best WR values this year IMO. 
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I think Brown was cut.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
His slot efficiency is just nutty. But that was where Baldwin lived.

now they’ve got Jaron Brown & (hopefully) Metcalf on the perimeter & Baldwin will live in the slot. 

That offense will run through Carson & Lockett. He was one of the best WR values this year IMO. 
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?

 
Lockett - targets up, catches up, yards up, YPC down, catch % down, TD's about the same.  I hate seeing him returning kicks & punts.  Are you kidding me?  Putting your WR1 at risk is not smart, unless your name is Devin Hester or Deion Sanders.

 
TheWinz said:
Lockett - targets up, catches up, yards up, YPC down, catch % down, TD's about the same.  I hate seeing him returning kicks & punts.  Are you kidding me?  Putting your WR1 at risk is not smart, unless your name is Devin Hester or Deion Sanders.
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From a football fan perspective I couldn’t agree more. It’s dumb. 

From the perspective of a guy who has him in an IDP format where I’ll get all those KR/PR yards, it makes me a little happy. 

Still - would prefer not to have him exposed like that. 

 
Lockett's efficiency has been incredible.  But why is he targeted so little?  He has been efficient his whole career yet Wilson has chosen to never target him much.  Maybe it is his lack of physicality that makes Russell only throw to him when he is wide open.  He had 51 catches as a rookie and only 57 catches last year.  He has been targeted between 66 and 71 times each of his 4 seasons.   He had way less competition for targets last year than previously and still didn't see an increase in targets.  Why is this year going to be any different?

I used my 4th and 5th round picks on wide receivers in most of my drafts this year.  I had a very difficult time deciding between Godwin, Ridley, Boyd, and Lockett.  I ended up putting Lockett at the bottom.  He might have the best situation of the four but he has had already had that situation and not done much with it.  The other 3 look like they have the physical tools to become truly elite.  Their situations might not be as ideal as Lockett's situation but talent has a way asserting itself regardless of circumstances.

 
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I used my 4th and 5th round picks on wide receivers in most of my drafts this year.  I had a very difficult time deciding between Godwin, Ridley, Boyd, and Lockett.  I ended up putting Lockett at the bottom.  He might have the best situation of the four but he has had already had that situation and not done much with it.  The other 3 look like they have the physical tools to become truly elite.  Their situations might not be as ideal as Lockett's situation but talent has a way asserting itself regardless of circumstances.
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Those (bolded) are different values though. I would never look at Lockett in the 4th. I did look at him at 5.08, but I’d gone WR-heavy so I passed. When he fell to me at 6.04 I just couldn’t pass that up. 

But like you, I had Lockett ranked after Godwin as well and Ridley & Boyd. 

So I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. - I think most folks had them ranked in roughly the same order, with Locket a tier below those others. 

But in his tier of WRs, his circumstances indicate he’s the most likely to break out & arguably has greater potential upside because he’s now a WR1, where the others in his tier are mostly Wr2s.

He’s going to be in the slot close to 100% of the time now & I expect his targets to increase. 

As for the totals, they’ll still be lower than many other WR1s because the Seahawks run the ball more than almost anyone. They don’t want to sling the ball around all Willy nilly. 

i see Lockett’s upside at around 75-80 catches. So in PPR he’s a bit capped. But if his yards & TDs increase as the same %, then he’s a solid WR2 at a WR3 price. 

Or in my case, a WR4/Flex.  :pickle:

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Those (bolded) are different values though. I would never look at Lockett in the 4th. I did look at him at 5.08, but I’d gone WR-heavy so I passed. When he fell to me at 6.04 I just couldn’t pass that up. 

But like you, I had Lockett ranked after Godwin as well and Ridley & Boyd. 

So I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. - I think most folks had them ranked in roughly the same order, with Locket a tier below those others. 

But in his tier of WRs, his circumstances indicate he’s the most likely to break out & arguably has greater potential upside because he’s now a WR1, where the others in his tier are mostly Wr2s.

He’s going to be in the slot close to 100% of the time now & I expect his targets to increase. 

As for the totals, they’ll still be lower than many other WR1s because the Seahawks run the ball more than almost anyone. They don’t want to sling the ball around all Willy nilly. 

i see Lockett’s upside at around 75-80 catches. So in PPR he’s a bit capped. But if his yards & TDs increase as the same %, then he’s a solid WR2 at a WR3 price. 

Or in my case, a WR4/Flex.  :pickle:
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Not sure if the bolded is accurate.  Looking at the Football Guys blended rankings (16 of their staff members rankings averaged) they have Locket 16, Godwin 20, Ridley 22, and Boyd 24.

Thats about how I would have it too.  I hear what you guys are saying.  I dont think they will be as run heavy this year as last though.  They used a 2 a 4 and a 7 drafting WRs, and they just paid Wilson huge money.  I can see how the drafted WRs could be an argument against Lockett, but they're rookies.  I read it as more of an indication that Pete knows he has one of the best QBs in the league and he knows he will have to pass to win in today's NFL.  Locket is as clearly the number one option this year for Seattle as any WR in the NFL is to their team.  Those other guys are clear 2s so even if their team has more attempts it does not mean more targets for them as the second option.  Also, their secondary looks like it might suck so they may not have a choice but to pass more.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
He’s going to be in the slot close to 100% of the time now & I expect his targets to increase. 
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Lockett was only targeted on 12.4% of his slot routes last year.  That was the 7th worst percentage in the league.  Doug Baldwin wasn't on the field for most of those snaps.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Not sure if the bolded is accurate.  Looking at the Football Guys blended rankings (16 of their staff members rankings averaged) they have Locket 16, Godwin 20, Ridley 22, and Boyd 24.

Thats about how I would have it too.  I hear what you guys are saying.  I dont think they will be as run heavy this year as last though.  They used a 2 a 4 and a 7 drafting WRs, and they just paid Wilson huge money.  I can see how the drafted WRs could be an argument against Lockett, but they're rookies.  I read it as more of an indication that Pete knows he has one of the best QBs in the league and he knows he will have to pass to win in today's NFL.  Locket is as clearly the number one option this year for Seattle as any WR in the NFL is to their team.  Those other guys are clear 2s so even if their team has more attempts it does not mean more targets for them as the second option.  Also, their secondary looks like it might suck so they may not have a choice but to pass more.
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I agree. Most people have Lockett above those other guys and I certainly do. I own Boyd but would not trade Lockett for Boyd.  He is set for a borderline WR1 year.

 
Don Hutson said:
Lockett's efficiency has been incredible.  But why is he targeted so little?  He has been efficient his whole career yet Wilson has chosen to never target him much.  Maybe it is his lack of physicality that makes Russell only throw to him when he is wide open.  He had 51 catches as a rookie and only 57 catches last year.  He has been targeted between 66 and 71 times each of his 4 seasons.   He had way less competition for targets last year than previously and still didn't see an increase in targets.  Why is this year going to be any different?

I used my 4th and 5th round picks on wide receivers in most of my drafts this year.  I had a very difficult time deciding between Godwin, Ridley, Boyd, and Lockett.  I ended up putting Lockett at the bottom.  He might have the best situation of the four but he has had already had that situation and not done much with it.  The other 3 look like they have the physical tools to become truly elite.  Their situations might not be as ideal as Lockett's situation but talent has a way asserting itself regardless of circumstances.
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Lockett has been behind Doug Baldwin all 4 yrs of his career... until now.  I think you are forgetting that.

2015 - Baldwin (103 targets), Lockett (69 targets)

2016 - Baldwin (125 targets), Lockett (66 targets)

2017 - Baldwin (116 targets), Lockett (71 targets)

2018 - Baldwin (73 targets - limited), Lockett (70 targets)

2019 - Lockett 100+ targets, 70+ catches - write it with a sharpie

 
az_prof said:
I agree. Most people have Lockett above those other guys and I certainly do. I own Boyd but would not trade Lockett for Boyd.  He is set for a borderline WR1 year.
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I guess I thought I was higher on Lockett than most. 

Certainly from this forum Godwin & Boyd are the darlings of the FF community. 

I could have sworn Lockett was lower in the rankings, but then my drafts were weeks ago.  :shrug:

 
Lockett - #1 for highest paid QB/player in NFL history

Boyd - #1/eventually #2 for Red Rifle

Godwin - #2 for Jaymarcus

Sometimes, it's just that simple. Draft accordingly.

 
Don Hutson said:
Lockett's efficiency has been incredible.  But why is he targeted so little?  He has been efficient his whole career yet Wilson has chosen to never target him much.  Maybe it is his lack of physicality that makes Russell only throw to him when he is wide open.  He had 51 catches as a rookie and only 57 catches last year.  He has been targeted between 66 and 71 times each of his 4 seasons.   He had way less competition for targets last year than previously and still didn't see an increase in targets.  Why is this year going to be any different?
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I'll take "things that were said about Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate before they were thrust into the #1 role, Alex". 

 
az_prof said:
So I watched his highlights from last year and I agree that I don't see him ever being a top 10 WR in the NFL. But do I see him leading the Seahawks in receiving in 2019? Yes.  

Strengths: Runs good routes; great hands and concentration.

Weakness: Goes down with an arm tackle and doesn't have great RAC skills.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8OUOpBniX0
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I'm not sure about RAC skills, that run against the Rams was silly with running with the ball skills. Besides how much RAC do you need when you consistently get 5 yards behind DBs? 😉

What I definitely see is that he seems to have a good sense of where defenders are and smartly gets down or OOB instead of taking unnecessary punishment. He's too small to try and shake off multiple tacklers. But if there is only one defender he seems to show some ability to get some YAC.

But his ability to make contested catches, or lay out for the ball was very surprising to me in that video. That's not something I would have associated with any WR his size. The TD vs Chicago in the back corner was 😲.

Lockett's adjustment to the Baldwin role will be one of the more interesting stories for me to follow this season. It's much different than what he has been asked to do in the past. 

 
Lockett's adjustment to the Baldwin role will be one of the more interesting stories for me to follow this season. It's much different than what he has been asked to do in the past. 
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He did play some slot. The results were excellent. So we have a small, yet pretty informative sample size. It’s posted above but I believe he was 26/29 targets from the slot? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
He did play some slot. The results were excellent. So we have a small, yet pretty informative sample size. It’s posted above but I believe he was 26/29 targets from the slot? 
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Wilson had a perfect QB rating when throwing to Lockett last season.

That's a crazy stupid stat. It has to regress this year.

I think Locket, and Mike Williams (SD) also have the distinction of being the only two receivers in NFL history to have 10 TD catches on fewer than 75 targets. Or something equally stupid like that.

Again, something you have to expect to regress.  Locket is going to have to get much more volume and still be efficient if he is going to exceed last year's season ending numbers.

Personally I think he will end up at something like 80, 1,100 & 8

 
Chaka said:
Wilson had a perfect QB rating when throwing to Lockett last season.

That's a crazy stupid stat. It has to regress this year.

I think Locket, and Mike Williams (SD) also have the distinction of being the only two receivers in NFL history to have 10 TD catches on fewer than 75 targets. Or something equally stupid like that.

Again, something you have to expect to regress.  Locket is going to have to get much more volume and still be efficient if he is going to exceed last year's season ending numbers.

Personally I think he will end up at something like 80, 1,100 & 8
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So last things first, our projections are nearly identical. I put Lockett more at the 10-12 TD range merely because when passing in the red zone he’s likely to be their most trusted/reliable target. 

That said, I agree - the efficiency is unsustainable. But with increased targets that’s offset by volume. 

So I’ll go high and say he’s 85/1200/12

if it’s anywhere in the range between your & my projections, he’s an absolute bargain as a WR3 for FF purposes. 

 
biju said:
Just Win Baby said:
I'll take the under on both numbers
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Baldwin had 100+ targets and 75+ receptions from 2015-2017 and nearly had 1,000+ yards in all three years (2017: 991).  If Lockett is going to take over Doug's role I wouldn't bet against either of those numbers.
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Seattle averaged 537 pass attempts in those seasons. They had 427 last year - #32 in the league.

Seattle averaged 1829 rushing yards in those seasons. They had 2560 last year - #1 in the league.

Those changes were clearly by design and make comparing the 2015-2017 Seattle offenses to the 2018-beyond offenses suspect.

Now, they have replaced veteran WR Baldwin with rookies. Not really an incentive to pass more frequently.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Seattle averaged 537 pass attempts in those seasons. They had 427 last year - #32 in the league.

Seattle averaged 1829 rushing yards in those seasons. They had 2560 last year - #1 in the league.

Those changes were clearly by design and make comparing the 2015-2017 Seattle offenses to the 2018-beyond offenses suspect.

Now, they have replaced veteran WR Baldwin with rookies. Not really an incentive to pass more frequently.
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Good post and good points.  Regarding the bolded...they also used 3 picks on WRs including a 2nd, and made their QB the highest paid player in NFL history (right?).  In a vacuum, that would indicate a more pass-friendly lean.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Good post and good points.  Regarding the bolded...they also used 3 picks on WRs including a 2nd, and made their QB the highest paid player in NFL history (right?).  In a vacuum, that would indicate a more pass-friendly lean.
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I don't think so. They had to replace Baldwin.

As for Wilson, he is the same guy this year as last year, it just so happened that this offseason was the timing for a new contract.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I'm skeptical. Lockett has just 6 career red zone TDs on 21 career red zone targets. His stature doesn't help him in the red zone. 
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Baldwin wasn’t exactly a giant at 5’10 & he did pretty well. Playing out of the slot helps. 

:shrug:

But you do have a point & I’d expect much of Lockett’s production to come from a little deeper. I still think 10-12 is his upside. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Baldwin wasn’t exactly a giant at 5’10 & he did pretty well. Playing out of the slot helps. 

:shrug:

But you do have a point & I’d expect much of Lockett’s production to come from a little deeper. I still think 10-12 is his upside. 
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Well, you didn't actually say you saw 10-12 as his upside the first time. I agree that is a reasonable upside, he just had 10 last year. Upside is different from what you are projecting, which is what I thought you meant.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I don't think so. They had to replace Baldwin.

As for Wilson, he is the same guy this year as last year, it just so happened that this offseason was the timing for a new contract.
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You very well could be right.  Logically to me, if you are going to be one of the the run-heaviest teams in the league, you dont make a QB the highest paid player in the league and you dont use 3 of your 7 picks on WRs.  Especially since they probably could have gotten 3 first round picks for Wilson (if not more) - he is certainly worth more than Laremy Tunsil who essentially fetched 2 ones and a two.  If I am going to only let my QB throw 450 passes, I dont need him to be the highest paid in the NFL and I would rather allocate that cash toward my OL and defense, and accumulate 3 first round picks - especially with all of the highly rated inexpensive QBs about to enter the league. 

But I understand that this is just my logic.  I would take the over on 500 pass attempts for the team this year though.  The 427 from last season was way too low.  

ETA The 427 was Wilson's attempts, not team attempts.  I didnt check that stat.

ETA Now I did check it.  Apparently only Wilson attempted a pass for the Hawks last season.  Team total was 427.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
So last things first, our projections are nearly identical. I put Lockett more at the 10-12 TD range merely because when passing in the red zone he’s likely to be their most trusted/reliable target. 

That said, I agree - the efficiency is unsustainable. But with increased targets that’s offset by volume. 

So I’ll go high and say he’s 85/1200/12

if it’s anywhere in the range between your & my projections, he’s an absolute bargain as a WR3 for FF purposes. 
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Unless of course you drafted him as your #1 WR... :unsure:

 
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