M.Sanu (1 Viewer)

I acquired Sanu in dynasty and am intrigued by his situation. Sanu is a sub par Wr but he is in the perfect spot. He is built for a wr2 role and can perhaps flourish in his new position starting opposite Julio. Matt Ryan throws a ton and is an above average qb. 

Any projections? 

outside of one year where White had an OK year, the #2 wr in shannys O has never had a big target share.

i predict he will be fairly pedestrian mid level wr3 at best

I actually don't think Sanu is as untalented as many make him out to be. He is a tough runner after the catch, smart and has strong hands (though he had some concentration drops in 2014). There was a reason why he got over $30M in FA and had teams like the Patriots very interested in him as well.

But I agree with pwingles that WR2 in Atlanta (and specifically with OC Shanahan) is not an attractive target for fantasy. Hard to see him getting more than 100 targets (probably even less than that) and Sanu's a possession guy, so he's not going to do a whole lot of fantasy damage with 5-6 targets per game. The FBG staff all have him in the 55-60  catch, 650-700 yards receiving range. Seems reasonable to me and those type of numbers aren't of much use for fantasy. 

We don't talk about handcuffs for WRs, but that may be where there is a little bit of weekly upside with Sanu. He had some big games in 2014 when AJ Green was out and would be a startable option if Julio missed games, which isn't an uncommon occurrence. 

Dan Hindery said:

I actually don't think Sanu is as untalented as many make him out to be. He is a tough runner after the catch, smart and has strong hands (though he had some concentration drops in 2014). There was a reason why he got over $30M in FA and had teams like the Patriots very interested in him as well.

But I agree with pwingles that WR2 in Atlanta (and specifically with OC Shanahan) is not an attractive target for fantasy. Hard to see him getting more than 100 targets (probably even less than that) and Sanu's a possession guy, so he's not going to do a whole lot of fantasy damage with 5-6 targets per game. The FBG staff all have him in the 55-60  catch, 650-700 yards receiving range. Seems reasonable to me and those type of numbers aren't of much use for fantasy. 

We don't talk about handcuffs for WRs, but that may be where there is a little bit of weekly upside with Sanu. He had some big games in 2014 when AJ Green was out and would be a startable option if Julio missed games, which isn't an uncommon occurrence. 

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is Sanu a lock to start over Hardy all year?  Or to get more receptions?  I know he's the veteran they brought in and paid well, but Hardy seems like he could rise.

FUBAR said:

is Sanu a lock to start over Hardy all year?  Or to get more receptions?  I know he's the veteran they brought in and paid well, but Hardy seems like he could rise.

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a lock? no

but they did give him enough  money to guarantee opportunity to be able to prove himself

FUBAR said:

is Sanu a lock to start over Hardy all year?  Or to get more receptions? 

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Yes and barring injury yes.

Pwingles said:

outside of one year where White had an OK year, the #2 wr in shannys O has never had a big target share.

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That's what people used to say about the #2 WR in the Kubiak offense and Sanders did fine last year despite terrible QB play. Same offense. Same offense his daddy ran when Rod Smith and Easy Ed were both producing. Point is when that system has had good WR#2's they've done just fine.

Sanu carried a team of mine in 2014 for several weeks so I've got some fondness for him but also know he can do somethings if given a chance. That year he had 40 catches on 68 targets at halfpoint of season. I don't think he gets 8 targets a game but he should be extremely efficient with the coverage Julio is going to help provide for him. I think he's just a WR3 but a solid PPR WR3. I'm seeing around 110 targets/70 catch type season for him. Nice guy to grab late when everyone else is going zero RB theory and you are steady value picking RB's early in the draft.

I agree with Dan Hindery that Sanu has been systematically marginalized by folks in FF community. I think he is better than people give him credit for. At the same time some of the criticism is justified, Sanu has not really broken out by NFL WR standards. He has mostly been used as a slot guy and some occasional constraint plays going his way. He is similar to Pharoh Cooper in that regard being a big WR who plays slot and is used on trick plays and misdirection. 

The Bengals have been a run heavy lower volume passing offense under Hue Jackson that had 2 1st round picks at TE for a bit of his time with the Bengals, he also had to compete with Hawkins for slot looks earlier on in his career. I think people may have been looking for a year two break out for him in 2013 when OC Jay Gruden had the Bengals throwing the ball more frequently. He was surpassed by Marvin Jones that season who was also in his second year, which contributes to peoples perceptions about him not being very good.

He got some opportunity in 2014 with Marvin Jones out and AJ Green missing 3 games. In this situation he almost got 100 targets. He was used more outside and as a downfield threat which led to an increase in his yards per reception but also a decline in his catch rate below 60% His numbers with increased opportunity were 98 targets 56 receptions 790 yards 5 TD also 51 yards rushing on 7 attempts. These are not good numbers for a WR 1  (which he was for 3 games and I think parts of others with Green injured) but they are good enough for a NFL WR 2.

The Falcons passing offense and Matt Ryan were underwhelming last season despite playing a very favorable schedule that certainly benefited Cam Newton, Drew Brees and even rookie Jameis Winston last year. 

Justin Hardy is a player Sanu will compete with for looks in the passing offense,

I think Sanu could pretty easily get the 70 targets Roddy White had in this offense last season and possibly close to 100 targets if he is playing well. I don't see more upside than this however. At 60% catch rate (career numbers throwing out the rookie season) this would be 42-60 receptions at 12 yards per reception would be 504-720 yards. He could add another 50 or so yards rushing if the Falcons use him in this way as he has with the Bengals.

That isn't all that exciting but he could be useful as a spot starter on favorable match up I suppose.