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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS

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1 minute ago, Tommy Collins said:

Based on your comments on the McCoy thread, I'm not surprised. You might want to wait to see what Kelley does this week before embarrassing yourself by offering such a ridiculous offer. Unless your other pieces are the QB 4-5, plus something else and Kelley, you're expecting to rape the other guy. I'm not commenting any further on your trades as it doesn't represent even a percentage Kelley's true value.

It's funny because you actually guessed my trade when you weren't being a sarcastic #####.

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Just guessing, but I'd expect Kelley to definitely get the role Jones had, and Mack Brown to mix in a little bit more than Kelley has been behind Jones. I believe a big problem for Mack Brown in preseason was pass blocking, so I'd expect Chris Thompson to be more of a true third down back and get mixed in on early downs too. I'm a Skins fan, and not overly excited about any of these guys for fantasy purposes. Kelley could come out and do great, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was exactly about as effective as Jones. The Bengals are a little weak against the run so far though, so it's a better matchup than some of the games they've had.

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37 minutes ago, avoiding injuries said:

What are people expecting out of him THIS week?

And so we've come full circle - whoever guesses this closest gets free hot sauce!  :excited:

And because 2 bottles ships for the same cost as 1, I'm doubling it to 2 bottles!  :pickle:

So guess right - seems a couple folks who were expecting Matt Jones to play may have outsmarted themselves with low projections. :sadbanana: But the good news is Fat Rob may still crap the bed with a terrible game!  :hifive:

USA Only, the person who's closest to Rob Kelley's RuYd, # of receptions, ReYd and TD wins. Ties decided by time-stamp, so check previous projections.

Go! 

 

ETA - never mind. You don't need # of receptions. I checked my original post and did not include that. I should have. :doh: 

 

next time. 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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7 minutes ago, crusty crab said:

Just guessing, but I'd expect Kelley to definitely get the role Jones had, and Mack Brown to mix in a little bit more than Kelley has been behind Jones. I believe a big problem for Mack Brown in preseason was pass blocking, so I'd expect Chris Thompson to be more of a true third down back and get mixed in on early downs too. I'm a Skins fan, and not overly excited about any of these guys for fantasy purposes. Kelley could come out and do great, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was exactly about as effective as Jones. The Bengals are a little weak against the run so far though, so it's a better matchup than some of the games they've had.

IMO the addition of Brown is an indication that Jones' injury may be worse than reported so far. Often that's the case. And news that he has pain cutting laterally screams MCL/ACL type injury. 

Only question to me is whether it's a sprain or worse. 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

And so we've come full circle - whoever guesses this closest gets free hot sauce!  :excited:

And because 2 bottles ships for the same cost as 1, I'm doubling it to 2 bottles!  :pickle:

So guess right - seems a couple folks who were expecting Matt Jones to play may have outsmarted themselves with low projections. :sadbanana: But the good news is Fat Rob may still crap the bed with a terrible game!  :hifive:

USA Only, the person who's closest to Rob Kelley's RuYd, ReYd and TD wins. Ties decided by time-stamp, so check previous projections.

Go! 

60 rush, 10 rec, 0 TD

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

IMO the addition of Brown is an indication that Jones' injury may be worse than reported so far. Often that's the case. And news that he has pain cutting laterally screams MCL/ACL type injury. 

Only question to me is whether it's a sprain or worse. 

It is a bit odd. As far as I know, there were no reports of anything until he showed up to practice with pain in his knee. If they start bringing RBs in for workouts on their bye, I think that will be a pretty good sign it might be more serious than they're letting on. 

Fat Rob: 85 rushing yards, 12 rec yds, 1 TD

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Sorry - my bad. I thought I'd had # receptions too, but did not. Just RuYd/ReYd + TD totals. 

 

All good., 

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2 minutes ago, hamsterdam said:

62 rushing, 7 rec, 1 TD

Not as many receptions with Thompson playing.  80 yards and 2 receptions for 15 yards.  Plus a score.  I'm a Skins homer and word on the various sports radio shows (including a number of past players) is that Kelley has been showing he's the better back by a significant margin.  Jones has missed a number of pass protections as well as gone the wrong way when something is blocked.  Kelley's going to be the "new Morris" for a while.  Jones has kept the job to this point because of his draft pedigree and McCloughan doesn't want to admit he was wrong.  Don't get me wrong.  McCloughan is the best thing that's happened to this team in a long time but he was wrong on Jones.

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2 minutes ago, Prinefan said:

Don't get me wrong.  McCloughan is the best thing that's happened to this team in a long time but he was wrong on Jones.

What's weird is that Jones has had some monster games. And some terrible ones.  The swings are dramatic. Could simply be that he takes what the defense & OL give him. 

I don't think anyone here would argue that he's a special talent, but he's had a 150 yard game this season, which is pretty rock solid. 

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15 minutes ago, Prinefan said:

Not as many receptions with Thompson playing.  80 yards and 2 receptions for 15 yards.  Plus a score.  I'm a Skins homer and word on the various sports radio shows (including a number of past players) is that Kelley has been showing he's the better back by a significant margin.  Jones has missed a number of pass protections as well as gone the wrong way when something is blocked.  Kelley's going to be the "new Morris" for a while.  Jones has kept the job to this point because of his draft pedigree and McCloughan doesn't want to admit he was wrong.  Don't get me wrong.  McCloughan is the best thing that's happened to this team in a long time but he was wrong on Jones.

I can see how it was misleading, but to be clear I meant 7 rec yards not receptions.

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4 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

I'd be legitimately excited about Kelley if he didn't have the worst remaining schedule that I've ever seen.

The head scratcher to me is that Kelley was that good, why did it take a MJones injury for him to get a shot at starting?  Looking back at the schedule there were certainly some clunker games by MJ where they could have made the move. 

I see this going one of 2 ways: 

1. Kelley's limited sample size has been hiding significant warts in his game - maybe it's pass protecting, maybe it's vision, maybe it's ball handling. 

2. Kelley blows up and WAS staff looks ignorant for not playing him more until now. 

Seems like the former is more likely, however stranger things have happened - maybe Kelley is hungry and takes his game to the next level.  

 

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2 minutes ago, hamsterdam said:

I can see how it was misleading, but to be clear I meant 7 rec yards not receptions.

I think my response (since deleted) was what led to the confusion - my bad.  I made a dumb joke about 0 yards on 7 receptions, as "rec" can be an abbreviation for reception.

Since so many people were including # of rec in their responses I thought that was in the contest, but looking back I see it was not. 

Apologies for creating the confusion between y'all's. My bad. 

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think my response (since deleted) was what led to the confusion - my bad.  I made a dumb joke about 0 yards on 7 receptions, as "rec" can be an abbreviation for reception.

Since so many people were including # of rec in their responses I thought that was in the contest, but looking back I see it was not. 

Apologies for creating the confusion between y'all's. My bad. 

Haha no worries man, I was going to put how many receptions until I noticed it wasn't part of the contest.

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Just now, hamsterdam said:

Haha no worries man, I was going to put how many receptions until I noticed it wasn't part of the contest.

You'd think I'd know my own contest. :doh: 

S'what I get for posting drunk. Oh, wait - it's only noon and I'm sober. OK, I have no excuse. 

Hmm.... 

:lol: 

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I'll play... 78 rushing yards; 7 receiving -- 85 combined yards with 1 TD

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12 carries for 38 yards, 2 receptions for 7 yards, 0 TDs - Rob Kelley, thanks for the memories.

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1. Player: Rob Kelley is a JAG. Nothing more. Using only his NFL tape, which is all that is relevant, he has proven to be the following: a plodder, who has no wiggle, no speed, is not dynamic in any way, and is a limited receiver. There is ample evidence that shows this to be the case.

2. Situation: The Gruden offense is predicated on the pass. OC Sean McVay has said, repeatedly, that if the offense is pumping on all cylinders, that the ideal ratio is 65% pass / 35% run. Similar to the 49'ers of the 80's, the run is a by-product of the passing game, and the ideal back for this offense resembles Roger Craig. That is not Rob Kelley.

3. Opponent: The Bengals are a tough matchup for the Redskins. On the spectrum of likely results, the least likely event that's going to happen on Sunday is the Redskins blowing the Bengals off the field. Much more likely that the game is going to be somewhat ugly (England games tilt that direction), hard-fought, and close. Either Team could win, but I think it's more likely the Bengals will. If that follows script and the Redskins are playing from behind much of the game, which I think is the most likely outcome, it doesn't script well for a pounder.

So, you have a JAG player, in an offense that doesn't favor the run, and prefers to utilize a dynamic halfback, playing in a game that will not likely script for heavy use of ground and pound scenario.

Roby Kelley is going to serve one purpose on Sunday: RB filler because Chris Thompson isn't built to handle a full load. His statistics will likely be very TD-dependant, which is random, with those touches coming inside the 5-yard line. I think those are going to be few and far between.

Guys who believe in him, I wish you luck. If you're scrounging the wire, there have to be better options out there.

 

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

12 carries for 38 yards, 2 receptions for 7 yards, 0 TDs - Rob Kelley, thanks for the memories.

Seems the most realistic honestly.

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1 minute ago, nittanylion said:

 

Guys who believe in him, I wish you luck. If you're scrounging the wire, there have to be better options out there.

 

This season, with all the byes this week? 

I picked up Kelley in a 10-teamer to block him from my opponent, who picked up and is starting Peyton Barber.

It's pretty grim out there right now for those who don't hoard RBs. Not saying I believe in him or not, but a starting RB would be an upgrade for some people this week.

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18 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

12 carries for 38 yards, 2 receptions for 7 yards, 0 TDs - Rob Kelley, thanks for the memories.

If this should come to pass, I'm curious as to what will happen to 1. FFB ownership, 2. this topic 

 

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6 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

I'm an Eagles fan, and have only seen Kelley one game so far... but damn did he look like a beast.

Compared to Ryan Matthews though, yeah. lol 

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16 minutes ago, Loipz said:

Seems the most realistic honestly.

On ‎8‎/‎31‎/‎2016 at 11:32 AM, Ilov80s said:

If this guy succeeds at all in the NFL it will be amazing. 1st percentile SPARQ athlete who never had more than 95 carries in 4 years of college, had 3.6 ypc as a 23 year old at Tulane. Man the Redskins botched this RB situation badly.

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Starting over an injured Matt Jones is not really succeeding yet. Let's see what he does with it. 

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Starting over an injured Matt Jones is not really succeeding yet. Let's see what he does with it. 

Sorry if you misunderstood, but I used your quote to show why I projected such low totals for him - not to call you out.

I was actually trying to show that this guy is the long shot of long shots (heck sometimes those work out so I don't fault anyone for picking him up) but wanted to give you full credit for showing the long odds stacked against him.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Sorry if you misunderstood, but I used your quote to show why I projected such low totals for him - not to call you out.

I was actually trying to show that this guy is the long shot of long shots (heck sometimes those work out so I don't fault anyone for picking him up) but wanted to give you full credit for showing the long odds stacked against him.

Oh got you. I didn't read any of the recent posts. I just got the notification. I don't think Kelley is going to be an awful play. He might score a TD. He's not a guy to depend on though.

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I'll play - 43 yards rushing , 7 receiving yards and 2TD (just because everyone else has gone with 0 or 1 TD )

 

I've always thought that Chris Thompson fits the mold of a Gruden RB and think he will be the much better play. 

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1 minute ago, Bombers411 said:

I'll play - 43 yards rushing , 7 receiving yards and 2TD (just because everyone else has gone with 0 or 1 TD )

 

I've always thought that Chris Thompson fits the mold of a Gruden RB and think he will be the much better play. 

Well if Kelley hits your projected stat line than he will for sure be the better play.

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This, from Evan Silva/Rotoworld: 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/66069/179/silvas-week-8-matchups

Quote

Due to three fumbles in Washington’s last five games, Matt Jones’ role was in danger of evaporating even before he was ruled out for Week 8 with a knee injury. Chris Thompson led Redskins backs in Week 7 playing time (58%), touches (19), and total yards (113), while UDFA Rob Kelley is next man up for early-down carries. As Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to clear 65 rushing yards against the Bengals over the past five weeks and Cincinnati has yielded the NFL’s fifth most receptions to running backs (40), Thompson is the strongest PPR bet in Washington's backfield. A two-down grinder averaging 6.1 yards on his first 17 NFL totes, Kelley should handle 13-17 carries and is playable as a non-PPR RB2/flex spot start.

 

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Interesting development in my league... I dropped R Kelley today and picked up CJ Anderson when I heard that he wasn't quite on IR yet. Then, right when word broke that CJ Anderson was indeed going to IR, the Matt Jones owner dropped Jones to pick up Kelley. And, I went ahead and picked up Jones.

Does Jones still have value going forward, or am I wasting my time here? I could pick up Perkins for instance, but the wire is fairly bare.

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This thread is one of the most insanely idiotic threads I have ever read.   At no point in this rambling,  incoherent thread were we even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought.   Everyone in this thread is now dumber for having read it.   I award us no points,  and may God have mercy on our souls. 

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6 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Does Jones still have value going forward, or am I wasting my time here? I could pick up Perkins for instance, but the wire is fairly bare.

Total crap shoot until:

1. the nature of his knee injury is reported

2. The Redskins see how Kelley performs

3. There is no 3, but it doesn't feel like a real list without a 3rd thing. 

 

 

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Just now, kittenmittens said:

This thread is one of the most insanely idiotic threads I have ever read.   At no point in this rambling,  incoherent thread were we even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought.   Everyone in this thread is now dumber for having read it.   I award us no points,  and may God have mercy on our souls. 

rofl - nice reference. :lol: 

 

On the other hand, someone is going to get 2 free bottles of award-winning hot sauce, so at least there's some redeeming qualities to it? 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Total crap shoot until:

1. the nature of his knee injury is reported

2. The Redskins see how Kelley performs

3. There is no 3, but it doesn't feel like a real list without a 3rd thing. 

 

 

LOL

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I could see him having some value as the goaline guy and someone who could get 10-15 touches

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5 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

You'd think I'd know my own contest. :doh: 

S'what I get for posting drunk. Oh, wait - it's only noon and I'm sober. OK, I have no excuse. 

Hmm.... 

:lol: 

There is ALWAYS an excuse.  It just might take more imaginitive thinking to inven find it!

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3 hours ago, tricky92 said:

Interesting development in my league... I dropped R Kelley today and picked up CJ Anderson when I heard that he wasn't quite on IR yet. Then, right when word broke that CJ Anderson was indeed going to IR, the Matt Jones owner dropped Jones to pick up Kelley. And, I went ahead and picked up Jones.

Does Jones still have value going forward, or am I wasting my time here? I could pick up Perkins for instance, but the wire is fairly bare.

No waivers?  That's a weird setup. 

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52 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

No waivers?  That's a weird setup. 

Blind bidding waivers on Wednesday and then total free agency until the games start up again. Players lock when their teams play until the bidding process again.

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16 hours ago, Saboo said:

I could see him having some value as the goaline guy and someone who could get 10-15 touches

Certainly. Any RB that gets touches and RZ work is worth rostering 

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17 hours ago, Saboo said:

I could see him having some value as the goaline guy and someone who could get 10-15 touches

I would love to see him get 15 touches.  Right now I am leaning towards him (Kelley) or Crowell.   I had Gillislee penciled in but the limited practices with a foot injury are scaring me away. 

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There's been a lot of touches to go around in this backfield in recent weeks. Even with Jones and Thompson touching the ball a lot, Kelley was still being utilized 5 times a game. I think the opportunity will no doubt be there this week. 

And yeah, Kelley is a plodder. But so is Asiata and he's probably a borderline RB1 this week. Opportunity is always going to supersede everything else in fantasy and Kelley is going to find himself with a fair amount this week.

We also are underselling his intangibles. Since the preseason he has consistently exhibited good vision and the willingness to fight for extra yards. Here's a paragraph from this article earlier in the year that I think sums it up nicely.

Quote

But Kelley has impressed me since the Atlanta game. A lot of it stems from his quick feet and vision, two terrific traits in a running back. He’s done an excellent job pressing the hole, too. He received good blocking versus the Falcons, but on his long run he pressed the hole, forcing the linebacker over and allowing the line to seal the cutback lane. The ability to press and cut back was noticeable with Kelley in each game; so, too, was his penchant for taking what could be a two-yard loss and turning it into a positive gain because of that vision.

Kelley showed he could pick up the blitz; his technique sometimes needed work, but the want-to was always there and he almost always stopped or slowed his man. The want-to is a must or else technique won’t matter.

Everything mentioned here has translated to the regular season, albeit on limited play/touches. 

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13 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

And yeah, Kelley is a plodder. But so is Asiata and he's probably a borderline RB1 this week. Opportunity is always going to supersede everything else in fantasy and Kelley is going to find himself with a fair amount this week

While I fundamentally agree, the comparison is a bit off since Asiata won't have competition for carries and has consistently been the GL & receiving back, whereas Kelley will lose receiving targets to Thompson and further complicating matters is a QB in cousins who loves to run in the red zone.

all opportunity isn't created equal - Asiata has a much better defined role, coveted short yardage work and receptions. 

So while they're both plodders, Kelley may have far less opportunity than Asiata.

Not saying Kelley won't have value - he may well exceed expectations and we don't currently know his workload.

But without receptions his value already plummets in PPR format, and if Cousins vultures the GL opportunities, I'm just not seeing anywhere near as much upside as Asiata. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

While I fundamentally agree, the comparison is a bit off since Asiata won't have competition for carries and has consistently been the GL & receiving back, whereas Kelley will lose receiving targets to Thompson and further complicating matters is a QB in cousins who loves to run in the red zone.

all opportunity isn't created equal - Asiata has a much better defined role, coveted short yardage work and receptions.

So while they're both plodders, Kelley may have far less opportunity than Asiata.

Not saying Kelley won't have value - he may well exceed expectations and we don't currently know his workload.

But without receptions his value already plummets in PPR format, and if Cousins vultures the GL opportunities, I'I just not seeing anywhere near as much upside as Asiata.

No doubt, which is why I said Asiata is a borderline RB1. I'm not treating Kelley as anything more than a flex in PPR.

I don't think we have to worry about Cousins vulturing GL opportunities though. Unless I'm mistaken, last week was Cousin's first rushing TD and it was on a read option on DET's 20 yard line. If you're a RB with the nickname Fat Rob, you're getting GL opportunites.

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