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Clifford

Has Rodgers Lost It?

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So i bought into the hype that last season was a fluke down year due to Jordy Nelson being out all season, but now I am thinking this is a trend. I spent a 2nd round pick on Rodgers in my start 2QB league.

After watching Rodgers struggle mightily with the Minnesota defense (and granted, he did lose about 100+ yards to constant PI penalties), seeing many of his throws miss his receivers badly, and looking forward to the playoff weeks (gets Houston week 13, Seattle week 14, Gets to feast on Bears week 15 but gets Minny again week 16) I am wondering if it might not be a bad idea to capitalize on the name now to get someone like Roethlisberger or Palmer.

Anyone else concerned that Rodgers is on the decline, or is this just a factor of gameplay and he and Nelson not yet being completely synced up?

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No. He played against one of the 2-3 best defenses in the league man. You know....sometimes you have to give a lot of credit to the defense. And also if he has on off night (he is human) against a defense of this caliber.....this is what happens.

 

 

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Am I reading the numbers wrong or is Rodgers currently on track for 40 combined TDs? I think it's a little early to write him off. 

Playing Seattle is a concern though. In 4 games against the Hawks over the past few years, Rodgers has averaged 212 passing yards and put up 4 passing TD with 3 INTs. Not great rushing the ball either (average of 13 rushing yards with no rushing TD).

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Jordy at home in 2014 was $$$$$, this will be the first home game for GB, they should roll this week.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Am I reading the numbers wrong or is Rodgers currently on track for 40 combined TDs? I think it's a little early to write him off. 

Playing Seattle is a concern though. In 4 games against the Hawks over the past few years, Rodgers has averaged 212 passing yards and put up 4 passing TD with 3 INTs. Not great rushing the ball either (average of 13 rushing yards with no rushing TD).

So what you're saying is by this time next week the thread will be on Page 5 and there will be a holy war about Rodgers' future. Then in a couple weeks he will light up someone and then all those folks will have egg on their faces. 

-I know what you typed but this is what I read. 

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Green Bay has 4 straight home games (with a bye week thrown in) before they go to Atlanta and come back home for Indianapolis. I'd hang on for a little while longer. The Packers have been prone to slower starts to seasons in recent years IIRC.

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1 minute ago, Ministry of Pain said:

So what you're saying is by this time next week the thread will be on Page 5 and there will be a holy war about Rodgers' future. Then in a couple weeks he will light up someone and then all those folks will have egg on their faces. 

-I know what you typed but this is what I read. 

I think we could just substitute PLAYER X in what you posted and you'd be spot on. People love to take a what have you done lately mentality, so players are either HOFers or total trash based on how they did last week. The media is no different.

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This is really about is last year a fluke or a trend...it's been 12 games since he topped 300 yards passing. If people feel Minny D is one of the better Ds in the league I'm fine with that, they certainly looked the part.

If fluke, then of course best course is to keep him and stomach the down games and hope he can perform well enough in 13 and 14 to get you to 15 where he typically blows up (against the Bears).

If trend, then you're looking at declining value and what you get in weeks 4-5 won't be as good as what you could get now with what appears to be a juicy matchup.

If 2015 had been a normal Aaron Rodgers year I would not be asking these questions.

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week 1 in FF many times is the exception to the rule.. 

and did you ever consider that maybe Minni's a decent defense?

it's only week two and as long as his WRs stay healthy Rodgers will be fine

 

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Like I said they looked the part. Trouble is if they are that good, he plays them in week 16.

Houston, Seattle, Chicago and Minnesota to finish the season

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Not Rodgers fault, it's the awful playcalling. Watched them for two weeks wondering what the hell they're doing out there. Don't know why they make it so complicated. One of the best QB's of all-time surrounded by a plethora of weapons and they run these wacky, high degree of difficulty plays. No flow in the playcalling. Just random formations that don't account for pass rush. What they were doing with Lacy on Sunday night remains a mystery. They line him up next to Rodgers in the gun on the weak side, he doesn't pick up the blitz, doesn't really do anything except run towards the D-line and turns around after rodgers is already in distress. On 4th and 2 they just run Starks, was was completely ineffective, up the middle and don't come close to converting. Then they take the backs off the field and line up Cobb in the backfield for a series.  Why?  Pound Lacy early to pinch the lbs up or keep throwing it to get the backers on their heels and then pound lacy. If Lacy has any success then Rodgers can spray it around wherever he wants, to whoever he wants. I'd be shocked if Cobb and Lacy don't get going this week. It's like these coaches have to outsmart themselves every week with the game plan because they want to be perceived as running complex offense. Stop overthinking it!

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If you remove the Packers' three hail mary plays (DET, 2x ARI) over Rodgers' past 10 gms... 231/406 (57%), 2275 yd, 5.60 YPA, 15 TD, 7 INT,

A 5.60 YPA would rank dead-last in the NFL right now (below Keenum). Worst in NFL last year was Nick Foles (6.09)

Oh my! And this had to be the year I drafted him. Hopefully this is a bump in the road.

 

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Rodgers over his last 16 games played (2 in 2016, 2 playoff games in 2015, last 12 games in 2015):

3709-27-10 passing with 302-3 rushing

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21 minutes ago, MrJimiT said:

Green Bay has 4 straight home games (with a bye week thrown in) before they go to Atlanta and come back home for Indianapolis. I'd hang on for a little while longer. The Packers have been prone to slower starts to seasons in recent years IIRC.

It's tough watching Mike McCarthy call plays sometimes.

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Better question should be:  

Are the Packers really going to have Favre/Rodgers for 25-ish years, and only get two Lombardis?

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Maybe he should put it on milk cartons and try to find it?

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It's the Munn effect.  There is definitely a difference in his pre/post performance since he started dating her.

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41 minutes ago, Clifford said:

Like I said they looked the part. Trouble is if they are that good, he plays them in week 16.

Houston, Seattle, Chicago and Minnesota to finish the season

check the numbers BUT Rodgers has Always done worse against the Vikings than against the rest of the league

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Seems to be an open question in the fantasy community...however his shine has not worn off. Given that playoff schedule it is tempting to think about trading him if I can get top-flight in return.

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Next 4 games at home, one of the easiest remaining QB schedules in the league, cake week 15 matchup (which is the most important playoff week, imo) ... he's actually a target of mine right now. I'm not worried at all. 

Take it easy guys... he played in the 105 heat in JAX with a game plan designed to slow the game down so they could conserve energy. They only ran 60 plays... that might be the lowest of any game in the last few years.  And the Vikings have a legitimately dominate defense. They ran two scores back week 1 and have a lot of top-round talent (with one of the best defensive minds in the game coaching them).

Rodgers is going to be just fine. If people are trading him away cheap you should be looking to buy.

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And while I have not been a fan of playcalling lately...Rodgers has a ton of leeway to audible (he audibled into the Starks run on 3rd and goal in the Jax game I believe I saw).  So, he has blame and input into such game plans as well.

 

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I know I'll get flamed and I am sure it is just a huge coincidence, but his significant drop off in play does coincide with the PSI rule changes.

Just sayin:whistle:

Edited by NE_REVIVAL
spelling

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Counting last year and the start of this year, Rodgers ranks 10 in fantasy PPG for QBs that played in at least 10 games. But he's only 1 ppg better than the #17 QB (Carr). I know people will point to Nelson being out for all but 2 of those games, but IMO people making a case for him as being the #1 or #2 fantasy QB (and potentially looking to trade him as such) are going to be disappointed.

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Nothing like playing detroit at home to fix ur ills

Tell that to the Indy Colts :(

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1 hour ago, YoUnG GuNz said:

Part of the problem is ZERO threat of a run game.  Eddie Lacy may be the least talented starter in the NFL. 

Totally disagree. Lacy might be the most underutilized talented player in the NFL. On the other hand--Starks might be the most over-utilized JAG in the NFL.  

Edited by jvdesigns2002
Added the Starks part.
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1 hour ago, Olaf said:

Yesterday, NFL on CBS posted the following comparison of Aaron Rodgers last eight games vs. Blaine Gabbert's last eight games...

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14344295_1172260462860216_3172127128991843649_n.jpg?oh=2152afb72639d66adad8253dfadf8ba6&oe=58397781

 

 

And this is what should concern people.

A few people here are specifically discussing the Viking D. However, the trend dating back to last season should be the bigger concern. McCarthy's teams usually do start slow. That said, I'm a worried Packer fan right now. He hasn't looked "right" in about a year. Here's to hoping he finds it.

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I get the feeling that a large part of the problem is his WR's.   Jordy doesn't seem to be 100% back yet and I don't think they have a #3 guy that Rodgers trusts (like James Jones used to be).   Adams is not that guy.

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After watching the game Sunday, my concern for Rodgers is more about his weapons.  Watch a replay of the game and see how little separation the WR were getting from the man coverage by Minnesota.  I know Minnesota has a good defense, but I never thought their DB were on the elite level in man coverage.  I think this is the same problem GB had last year without Nelson, no one could separate from the DBs.  Most of the game, the holes to throw to were really small.

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All last year we heard about Jordy Nelson, as though they had lost Don Hudson himself or something. Jordy is a nice WR1, but losing a receiver in the first week of preseason does not normally mean your QB is going to have a bad year. It's a small bump in the road at most for a superstar quarterback, right? There were numerous other excuses throughout the year - people spoke of an undisclosed injury, play-calling (of course), OL, running game, Olivia Munn. His body language was strange - seems pissed off all the time - almost Cutlerian.

No one blamed Rodgers when his poor game cost the Packers a Superbowl 18 months ago. Almost no one blamed him when he missed throws, the bizarre interceptions and, for the first time in his career, seemed almost careless with the ball, but ever so slowly the whispers started. The whispers are now a thing - people are finally trusting their eyes and the numbers in the box scores and stating the obvious - the QB is not playing well. As a fan, I can only hope he comes around and sets things right. He's still good for a moment of brilliance or two every time out, still makes a few plays or throws each game that no one else on the planet can make. His competitiveness is supposedly legendary, so we're all expecting him to snap out of this. Surely, he'd work things out over the offseason we thought. Then Sunday night came and he looked an awful lot like the guy we saw all last season. Please make it stop. Please come back Aaron, our savior.

 

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19 minutes ago, Man in the yellow hat said:

And this is what should concern people.

A few people here are specifically discussing the Viking D. However, the trend dating back to last season should be the bigger concern. McCarthy's teams usually do start slow. That said, I'm a worried Packer fan right now. He hasn't looked "right" in about a year. Here's to hoping he finds it.

Agreed...14 games in a row with a passer rating less than 100 has me concerned. Hopefully he can flip that switch soon.

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4 minutes ago, Ksquared said:

After watching the game Sunday, my concern for Rodgers is more about his weapons.  Watch a replay of the game and see how little separation the WR were getting from the man coverage by Minnesota.  I know Minnesota has a good defense, but I never thought their DB were on the elite level in man coverage.  I think this is the same problem GB had last year without Nelson, no one could separate from the DBs.  Most of the game, the holes to throw to were really small.

This is partially true but Rodgers had a couple of WTF? throws he used to make all the time.  I'm thinking of a dump off to a wide open Jared Cook that Rodgers fired at his feet.  And that inceptions Adams was open if Rodgers throwing it to the outside shoulder but he didn't.  I'm sure it's a little bit of the play calling, WR's and Rodgers just not playing well.

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Listening to Sean Salisbury on Denver Fan 104.3 yesterday and he had a good thought. Rodgers has been running around - or had to due to the OL - and he's winging it all over the place and has lost his fundamentals. He compared it to a golf swing that after always making these adjustments to his throwing motion while scrambling - off wrong foot, sidearm, etc.. He said Rodgers should get his fundamental "swing" back by making the kind of play calls that would fix it by getting back to basics.

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Just now, ffldrew said:

Listening to Sean Salisbury on Denver Fan 104.3 yesterday and he had a good thought. Rodgers has been running around - or had to due to the OL - and he's winging it all over the place and has lost his fundamentals. He compared it to a golf swing that after always making these adjustments to his throwing motion while scrambling - off wrong foot, sidearm, etc.. He said Rodgers should get his fundamental "swing" back by making the kind of play calls that would fix it by getting back to basics.

He seems like he's seeing ghosts as well.  There were times on Sunday where he bailed before he really needed to.  The Vikes did get some pressure but it didn't seem like he was under a constant barrage the entire game.

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24 minutes ago, Pipes said:

He seems like he's seeing ghosts as well.  There were times on Sunday where he bailed before he really needed to.  The Vikes did get some pressure but it didn't seem like he was under a constant barrage the entire game.

And rarely was it quick pressure of the OL just getting beat.  It happened...but often pressure is from these deep patterns waiting to develop.

There seems to be almost no timing routes any more in this offense.  Or very few.

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42 minutes ago, Ksquared said:

After watching the game Sunday, my concern for Rodgers is more about his weapons.  Watch a replay of the game and see how little separation the WR were getting from the man coverage by Minnesota.  I know Minnesota has a good defense, but I never thought their DB were on the elite level in man coverage.  I think this is the same problem GB had last year without Nelson, no one could separate from the DBs.  Most of the game, the holes to throw to were really small.

Yeah cobb seems average now. Jordy is still working back. And adams is terrible.

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For fantasy purposes,  I think he has lost the huge point scoring ability.  He is still an elite QB in the game,  but numbers will not be what they were. 

Mccarthy is really conservative which doesn't help at all, especially with him calling plays again.   Too often he's a run 3 times and punt while we are ahead type of coach. 

The defense is solid and the schedule is fairly easy,  which combined with Mccarthy being conservative is going to lead to a lesser fantasy output IMO. 

Taking a walk down narrative street... 

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

For fantasy purposes,  I think he has lost the huge point scoring ability.  He is still an elite QB in the game,  but numbers will not be what they were. 

Mccarthy is really conservative which doesn't help at all, especially with him calling plays again.   Too often he's a run 3 times and punt while we are ahead type of coach. 

The defense is solid and the schedule is fairly easy,  which combined with Mccarthy being conservative is going to lead to a lesser fantasy output IMO. 

Taking a walk down narrative street... 

I don't think McCarthy is as conservative as you think.  I think Rodgers most certainly is at times.  He is not going to risk throwing someone open very much (which has led to holding the ball and taking sacks...or looking downfield so much and not securing the ball).

The offense has been too many deep drops and long developing patterns.  That is not conservative at all.

I don't think he has run the ball enough to keep defenses honest at all.

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15 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

I don't think McCarthy is as conservative as you think.  I think Rodgers most certainly is at times.  He is not going to risk throwing someone open very much (which has led to holding the ball and taking sacks...or looking downfield so much and not securing the ball).

The offense has been too many deep drops and long developing patterns.  That is not conservative at all.

I don't think he has run the ball enough to keep defenses honest at all.

I agree with that and is certainly an example of how the Packers can be aggressive. 

Mccarthy seems to get conservative when the Packers have the lead.   I haven't quantified that so it's anecdotal, but they don't seem to try to put the game out of reach with points,  they seem to work on the clock instead. 

I would add that he is still very good,  just not so good he's going to be worth picking way above other QBs who will score comparable points.   Fantasy doesn't distinguish between garbage time and game on the line... 

Edited by kittenmittens

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Just now, kittenmittens said:

I agree with that and is certainly an example of how the Packers can be aggressive. 

Mccarthy seems to get conservative when the Packers have the lead.   I haven't quantified that so it's anecdotal, but they don't seem to try to put the game out of reach with points,  they seem to work on the clock instead. 

 

I think most teams with a lead try to milk clock and run the so-called 4 minute offense.

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Back to back roadies to start the year never easy. Jordy still getting back to form. O line issues, horrid play calling. None of this Rodgers fault. He'll be fine. Easy buy low if someone selling.

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4 hours ago, Clifford said:

So i bought into the hype that last season was a fluke down year due to Jordy Nelson being out all season, but now I am thinking this is a trend. I spent a 2nd round pick on Rodgers in my start 2QB league.

After watching Rodgers struggle mightily with the Minnesota defense (and granted, he did lose about 100+ yards to constant PI penalties), seeing many of his throws miss his receivers badly, and looking forward to the playoff weeks (gets Houston week 13, Seattle week 14, Gets to feast on Bears week 15 but gets Minny again week 16) I am wondering if it might not be a bad idea to capitalize on the name now to get someone like Roethlisberger or Palmer.

Anyone else concerned that Rodgers is on the decline, or is this just a factor of gameplay and he and Nelson not yet being completely synced up?

It's Jordy Nelson who's killing him. Seen him running wrong routes, not turning around for the ball...  in a bunch of 3rd down and red zone situations.

 

They only have one playmaker at wideout and it's Cobb. They made a big mistake not taking a WR early in the draft.

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