spider321

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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I'm looking for opinions on the dynasty value of a few players relative to each other, and I believe other posters would also like feedback on guys in their leagues.

Hopefully, we can use this thread to gauge one another's thoughts on the long-term potential of multiple guys.

Feel free to post yours, and maybe we can get some good long-term value discussion going.

How would you guys rank Jordan Howard and Kenneth Dixon, relative to each other, in a dynasty league?

How would you guys rank Bortles, Mariota, and Wentz, relative to each other, in a dynasty league?

 

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For myself I like Dixon a bit more than Howard but I'm a fan of both. I like Dixon's all around game better and Howard is a better between the tackles runner (not that he only can do that). For myself Dixon is currently in the upper 20's and Howard in the low 40's. Howard's value will change I feel starting this week now that Langford is hurt so we are about to find out what he has. If you are a believer you should buy now. I suspect Dixon will get his chance also in a few weeks

 

On the QB's for me it is Bortles, Mariotta, then Wentz. I tend to place a lot of value on their immediate situation and I think Bortles will continue to throw more so for me that puts him over Mariotta as they are more conservative. Talent wise I think they are close. Wentz has impressed and is moving up. I could be wrong for sure but I think he will be the best of the 3 as an nil qb but may never reach superstar fantasy status. For me, Bortles 7, Mariotta 10, Wentz 14

 

 

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Nice topic. 

Dixon over Howard for me. My reasoning is I do not like the opportunity at all in Chicago. i don't think the organization has seen its trough yet.  They just keep getting progressively worse and I think the league has passed John Fox by. On one hand I like Howard's all around game but I think his lack of speed just won't fit in the NFL given his surrounding team and philosophy.  

 

On the QBs, it would be a nice decision to have to have because all three look good long term. I think Bortles is the most likely to fall back a bit and given Mariotta's age and fantasy points to be gained running, I would push him up to the top. I can't remark on Went because admittedly I am a bit too caught up on his start and I don't think its fair or accurate to really comment 3 games in.  Too much distracting clutter there for me to think I can say clearly. 

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Glad to see a thread like this.

I expected more than what I've seen from Mariota and his recievers this year. Murray looks good but the passing attack continues to sputter.

Wentz and Bortles are in better situations with better weapons.

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Dixon over Howard.  Had them with clear separation after the draft, nothing has happened to alter that long-term analysis. 

 

Bortles for single-season, although Wentz is sneaking into that conversation.  Long term, he's at the bottom of the three for me.  I haven't seen the sort of development and year-to-year improvement from him that I want to see in a young QB.  Mariota isn't looking great, but I'm going to put some of the blame for that on coaches.  That said, if I was doing a startup today I'd have Wentz ahead of both Bortles and Mariota.  I'd also tend to wait on QB, so would likely miss out on Wentz...

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It's hard not to be impressed with Wentz. He seems to have chemistry with everyone including the quick RBs that can get big chunks. 

Will have see how he responds once he has a bad game but he looks pretty calm and can take a hit. I'd put Wentz in my top ten. 

Bortles has Robinson which can prop him up more than Matthews or whoever the best pass catcher on Tennessee can. But the Philly offense overall looks dynamic so far.

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How about some views on the disappointing group of young WRs everyone was high on coming in?

What are we thinking about long-term value for Floyd, Lockett, John Brown, Parker, Moncreif?  Let's throw Cobb in here too.

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I own Lockett and Brown. The Seattle offense and Arizona offense are both out of sorts, I think they'll be incorporated more as this season goes on but longterm I like Lockett a little more. Wilson over Palmer and Brown has concussion concerns. 

Is Cobb declining physically, not getting open? I don't get why GB is struggling. 

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51 minutes ago, Arodin said:

How about some views on the disappointing group of young WRs everyone was high on coming in?

What are we thinking about long-term value for Floyd, Lockett, John Brown, Parker, Moncreif?  Let's throw Cobb in here too.

Floyd worries me a bit, it may just be that there are too many mouthes to feed (same can be said of Brown), idk. He's obviously not bad. 5 of his last 8 games played last year he had 100+ yards. You don't do that by accident.

Parker is on the come up. He's going to be big time IMO. He just has everything you want in a WR, except the health. The health is the only reason I have doubts. I need to see him play this season out to annoint him.

Cobb like everyone else in GB is a result of a still bad O-line.

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10 minutes ago, aaj1997 said:

What is the value for Doctson? 

Is a late 2017 1st a reasonable trade offer?   

It's a good offer to purchase, but I don't see any Doctson owner letting him go for that unless they are desperate or have completely soured on him.

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11 minutes ago, aaj1997 said:

What is the value for Doctson? 

Is a late 2017 1st a reasonable trade offer?   

I think that is a fine offer.

Doctson due to his injury is basically going to be a rookie next season. I doubt Doctson would go in the top 9 of next years draft, and I really like Doctson. Seems like a fair deal for either side.

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46 minutes ago, aaj1997 said:

What is the value for Doctson? 

Is a late 2017 1st a reasonable trade offer?   

Agreed with tangfoot and biab that that is a reasonable offer (and I'm a Doctson owner).

A couple other things to keep in mind are:

- Both Garcon and Desean are free agents next year and could very well be gone.

- IIRC there were reports that an ideal Gruden offense would throw +60% of the time. Again, just my memory on various readings (could be wrong).

If both of the above turn out to be true this could very well be the ideal time to buy. And even if Garcon was kept around another year I would think Doctson's dynasty value would remain unchanged (under-rated at the moment).

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Agree with takes on Doctson and something that could also help his value at least a little is this years WR class has some solid looking depth but to me right now a little short on studs,  I see this draft being pretty light on first round draft pick WR's, real NFL draft I mean.

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Dez Bryant dynasty value...discuss :)

 

Part of me wants to sell him for a top 3 2017 1st, but we all know that even top 1 rookie picks don't pan out.

With Dez, we have a bit of a head case, a guy who's gotten a little dinged the past couple of years, but (besides a clunker or two) he has promise of a top10 WR.

(actually, in my non-ppr league, he's currently sitting at WR11 with 10.04 ppg).

I *want* to sell him but he feels like a "bird in the hand..." kind of player right now.

 

thoughts?

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15 minutes ago, joey said:

Dez Bryant dynasty value...discuss :)

 

Part of me wants to sell him for a top 3 2017 1st, but we all know that even top 1 rookie picks don't pan out.

With Dez, we have a bit of a head case, a guy who's gotten a little dinged the past couple of years, but (besides a clunker or two) he has promise of a top10 WR.

(actually, in my non-ppr league, he's currently sitting at WR11 with 10.04 ppg).

I *want* to sell him but he feels like a "bird in the hand..." kind of player right now.

 

thoughts?

I might be :loco: but I take 3 top 17 1sts for Dez fairly quickly.  While we obviously don't know where they land, if you're getting Mike Williams, Corey Davis and cook, chances are good at least one, probably two, work out well for the best decade.  

But can you actually get 3 top picks for Dez?

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32 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

I might be :loco: but I take 3 top 17 1sts for Dez fairly quickly.  While we obviously don't know where they land, if you're getting Mike Williams, Corey Davis and cook, chances are good at least one, probably two, work out well for the best decade.  

But can you actually get 3 top picks for Dez?

The pick is in the top-3, he's not getting 3 of them.

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52 minutes ago, joey said:

Dez Bryant dynasty value...discuss :)

 

Part of me wants to sell him for a top 3 2017 1st, but we all know that even top 1 rookie picks don't pan out.

With Dez, we have a bit of a head case, a guy who's gotten a little dinged the past couple of years, but (besides a clunker or two) he has promise of a top10 WR.

(actually, in my non-ppr league, he's currently sitting at WR11 with 10.04 ppg).

I *want* to sell him but he feels like a "bird in the hand..." kind of player right now.

 

thoughts?

I sell without hesitation.

I'll add I think he could be good next season but I have major concerns that he drops off a cliff in next 2-3 seasons. I just don't think he's a very cerebral player.  Just this morning I was listening to Mike Lombardi on a podcast say Dak's recent struggles are more related to Dez struggling. He added that Dez is a great WR but you have to make the game easy for him or he can't play fast. So he's not someone for example you can get overly creative with and move around, got to  keep it simple and he can play fast and use his dominant physical attributes to make plays. I agree with all of that which leads to two quick points.

First one is Dez was a top 5 fantasy WR on "only" 130 something targets a season two different years and another year with a little over 150. His fantasy production per target was off the charts, it's the kind of production the other elite WR's in the NFL are giving you but on 30-50 more targets.  So back up a few years I always wondered about his upside if he could ever get to that kind of target usage and now I understand the folly of my thinking. He can't get to that kind of usage because he's not versatile enough as a player.

So next point. Dez is now 28 and he's still a physical specimen but what about when he's not just able to rely on being the better athlete? What about two years from now when he's 30, has suffered some more wear and tear, and needs to start relying more on the cerebral part of the game. Will he be able to adapt? I have strong doubts.

There is a chance his stock can pick up next season with  Dak in year two and hopefully better health but he'll still be closing on on 29  by than and in leagues I'm in that usually will lower you value and if he does not pick up his production next year then you are really looking at a quickly sinking asset. So for me I don't take the chance on a rebound, I run and grab me a top pick if I can right now.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

The pick is in the top-3, he's not getting 3 of them.

:bag:

I still take it unless I have no vision of reloading or rebuilding.  (IOW, if I'm sticking around for a while)

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53 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I sell without hesitation.

I'll add I think he could be good next season but I have major concerns that he drops off a cliff in next 2-3 seasons. I just don't think he's a very cerebral player.  Just this morning I was listening to Mike Lombardi on a podcast say Dak's recent struggles are more related to Dez struggling. He added that Dez is a great WR but you have to make the game easy for him or he can't play fast. So he's not someone for example you can get overly creative with and move around, got to  keep it simple and he can play fast and use his dominant physical attributes to make plays. I agree with all of that which leads to two quick points.

First one is Dez was a top 5 fantasy WR on "only" 130 something targets a season two different years and another year with a little over 150. His fantasy production per target was off the charts, it's the kind of production the other elite WR's in the NFL are giving you but on 30-50 more targets.  So back up a few years I always wondered about his upside if he could ever get to that kind of target usage and now I understand the folly of my thinking. He can't get to that kind of usage because he's not versatile enough as a player.

So next point. Dez is now 28 and he's still a physical specimen but what about when he's not just able to rely on being the better athlete? What about two years from now when he's 30, has suffered some more wear and tear, and needs to start relying more on the cerebral part of the game. Will he be able to adapt? I have strong doubts.

There is a chance his stock can pick up next season with  Dak in year two and hopefully better health but he'll still be closing on on 29  by than and in leagues I'm in that usually will lower you value and if he does not pick up his production next year then you are really looking at a quickly sinking asset. So for me I don't take the chance on a rebound, I run and grab me a top pick if I can right now.

Agreed.  Fitz, smurf, Boldin, and others perform well into their 30s because of, as you call it, their cerebral ability.  Dez isn't the same caliber there.  

Fwiw, I'm not sure Mike Evans is better in that capacity (yet), but he has time to develop.  

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2 hours ago, joey said:

Dez Bryant dynasty value...discuss :)

 

Part of me wants to sell him for a top 3 2017 1st, but we all know that even top 1 rookie picks don't pan out.

With Dez, we have a bit of a head case, a guy who's gotten a little dinged the past couple of years, but (besides a clunker or two) he has promise of a top10 WR.

(actually, in my non-ppr league, he's currently sitting at WR11 with 10.04 ppg).

I *want* to sell him but he feels like a "bird in the hand..." kind of player right now.

 

thoughts?

 
 

I think there's a very good chance that the owners of the top 3 picks would not move them for Dez.  As an initial matter, it's only 3 owners (at most) so startup value, groupthink, message board consensus, etc. goes out the board.  It's what do those 3 owners want.  For those that "earned" the picks, I can't imagine that they would give up a shot at one of the top 3 (or 4 or 5) this year for a WR that's had character issues, injury issues, and is getting older.  Sure, the pick may bust but I think that someone in a rebuild is willing to risk that the pick becomes Zeke, Gurley, Cooper, etc. rather than TRich.  

So you really need to find someone who traded for the pick.  And, for those owners, they have specifically targetted that pick with the hope of getting one of the top players in this draft.  So you'll likely need to offer more than they gave up for the pick.  Your best hope is to find a team that just missed out on the playoffs or the championship who has a hole at WR but nowhere else.  Absent that type of match, I think that you'll find it hard to get a top 3 1st for Dez.

Now, with that being said, I view Dez as being worth more than the picks.  And would be open to a deal like this or for another top player if I had one of the picks.

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all GREAT feedback on Dez value. Much appreciated.

Through trades and my own mediocrity this year, I currently own picks 2, 5 and 6 in the 2017 draft. So, I'll be targeting the 1st, 3rd and 4th pick owners to see if a deal can be made.

He's frustrating enough for me, with the knucklehead factor, to make me totally buy into menobrown's take on this to push me over the edge.

Of course, as wakelawyer said, it takes two to tango. We'll see. Just wanted to get a sanity check that I wasn't selling way low on Dez.

 

thanks guys.

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So how do you guys value the older stud WRs (AJG, Julio, Brown)?  I have a wealth of riches at WR and have looked to trade a player like AJG. But people seem flabbergasted that I won't take a late 1st and some 2nds for him. 

When I inquired about David Johnson I was told it would take AJG, Cooper and the 1.04. 

So are these older WRs worth a top 6 first?  Multiple 1sts?  

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4 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

So how do you guys value the older stud WRs (AJG, Julio, Brown)?  I have a wealth of riches at WR and have looked to trade a player like AJG. But people seem flabbergasted that I won't take a late 1st and some 2nds for him. 

When I inquired about David Johnson I was told it would take AJG, Cooper and the 1.04. 

So are these older WRs worth a top 6 first?  Multiple 1sts?  

Older?  Damn I'm getting old when these guys are "older".   Ok, but brown is 28 and one of the smarter players.  I see him having another 5 good years.  I'm less enthralled with green and Julio long term.  I won't trade brown for less than 3 top 5 picks and I'm not sure I'd do it then  (I have one of the top teams in a 32 team league with him).  Maybe if I was building but I think he has a career similar to jerry rice, for longevity.  

All 3 warrant more than one top 6 pick. 

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You guys are going about it wrong. You have players you want to trade but you don't offer them. You let the other owners identify who they are interested in.  Then go from there. Everybody is available as far as they know but you know who you want to get rid of. 

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53 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

So how do you guys value the older stud WRs (AJG, Julio, Brown)?  I have a wealth of riches at WR and have looked to trade a player like AJG. But people seem flabbergasted that I won't take a late 1st and some 2nds for him. 

When I inquired about David Johnson I was told it would take AJG, Cooper and the 1.04. 

So are these older WRs worth a top 6 first?  Multiple 1sts?  

That's crazy for David Johnson, but true stud RBs are such a scarce commodity that their value is just through the roof. I have L Bell and wouldn't move him for any WR, not because he's "better" than Beckham or A Brown but because there are only a couple of these type of RBs in the league, and Johnson is one of them, so you have to wildly overpay to get them. 

AJ is worth a top 6 for me, but it depends on the guy holding the pick; if they're rebuilding they may not want to give away a shot at a young stud for a guy getting a bit up there in age. 

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9 hours ago, wakelawyer said:

I think there's a very good chance that the owners of the top 3 picks would not move them for Dez.  As an initial matter, it's only 3 owners (at most) so startup value, groupthink, message board consensus, etc. goes out the board.  It's what do those 3 owners want.  For those that "earned" the picks, I can't imagine that they would give up a shot at one of the top 3 (or 4 or 5) this year for a WR that's had character issues, injury issues, and is getting older.  Sure, the pick may bust but I think that someone in a rebuild is willing to risk that the pick becomes Zeke, Gurley, Cooper, etc. rather than TRich.  

So you really need to find someone who traded for the pick.  And, for those owners, they have specifically targetted that pick with the hope of getting one of the top players in this draft.  So you'll likely need to offer more than they gave up for the pick.  Your best hope is to find a team that just missed out on the playoffs or the championship who has a hole at WR but nowhere else.  Absent that type of match, I think that you'll find it hard to get a top 3 1st for Dez.

Now, with that being said, I view Dez as being worth more than the picks.  And would be open to a deal like this or for another top player if I had one of the picks.

Agreed. I would be surprised if dez can net a top 3 pick in most leagues. 

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Brown will probably retire on my rosters, or at least stay there until he's no longer producing at a high level.  Letting players decline on my roster isn't something I usually do, but he's such a game changer that I'll make an exception for Brown.

As for guys like Julio/AJG/Dez, realistically we've already passed the prime sell-high window for them. Age is a huge deal in dynasty (warranted or not), and WR is so deep that owners just aren't going to pay big for WRs that are 28-29yo. If you wanted to truly play the value game, these players should have been sold 1-2 years ago.  Situation played a large role in his fall,  but DT was proof of this over the course of this past off-season.  Having said all that,  if you continually sell your studs in their prime then you're really hurting your chances of winning, so it's a bit of a catch 22.

The whole notion of cashing out on veteran WRs like Julio/Dez/AJG by trading them for picks during the off-season just strikes me as a terrible idea.  Picks/youth rule in the off-season, so you'd be selling low on the players and buying high on the inflated picks.  I think a much better way to go about it is waiting until the summer, after drafts are over and picks turn into players,  then trying to sell your vets for a package of players and future picks.  Sometimes it doesn't take long for owners to disconnect a rookie from the actual pick they used to draft the player, and it can become easier to buy that player after the draft than it would to trade for the pick prior to the draft. 

Ideally though ,  you'd want to sell productive vets during the season. The downside to that is it sometimes means you have to forgo making a title push that year, but selling in-season gives you the chance to pounce on the best opportunity when it arises.  It also gives you the opportunity to get the best return as you can take on injured/underperforming young players at a substantial discount,  and you're more likely to find an owner who will be willing to forget about "value" and be willing to give a bit more to get a deal done because they're trying to win a title.  In the off-season, nobody's forced to field a competitive roster or put points in their lineups, so they're much less likely to trade for a player unless the trade is on their terms and in their favor.

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Allen Robinson - does he rebound next year? I feel like we should be trying to buy him everywhere for peanuts if possible.

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4 hours ago, branch0095 said:

Brown will probably retire on my rosters, or at least stay there until he's no longer producing at a high level.  Letting players decline on my roster isn't something I usually do, but he's such a game changer that I'll make an exception for Brown.

As for guys like Julio/AJG/Dez, realistically we've already passed the prime sell-high window for them. Age is a huge deal in dynasty (warranted or not), and WR is so deep that owners just aren't going to pay big for WRs that are 28-29yo. If you wanted to truly play the value game, these players should have been sold 1-2 years ago.  Situation played a large role in his fall,  but DT was proof of this over the course of this past off-season.  Having said all that,  if you continually sell your studs in their prime then you're really hurting your chances of winning, so it's a bit of a catch 22.

The whole notion of cashing out on veteran WRs like Julio/Dez/AJG by trading them for picks during the off-season just strikes me as a terrible idea.  Picks/youth rule in the off-season, so you'd be selling low on the players and buying high on the inflated picks.  I think a much better way to go about it is waiting until the summer, after drafts are over and picks turn into players,  then trying to sell your vets for a package of players and future picks.  Sometimes it doesn't take long for owners to disconnect a rookie from the actual pick they used to draft the player, and it can become easier to buy that player after the draft than it would to trade for the pick prior to the draft. 

Ideally though ,  you'd want to sell productive vets during the season. The downside to that is it sometimes means you have to forgo making a title push that year, but selling in-season gives you the chance to pounce on the best opportunity when it arises.  It also gives you the opportunity to get the best return as you can take on injured/underperforming young players at a substantial discount,  and you're more likely to find an owner who will be willing to forget about "value" and be willing to give a bit more to get a deal done because they're trying to win a title.  In the off-season, nobody's forced to field a competitive roster or put points in their lineups, so they're much less likely to trade for a player unless the trade is on their terms and in their favor.

I was able to land AJ Green and Dez (back in week 5 when he was hurt) for Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry and a 2017 2nd Round Rookie Pick from a team who was in a rebuild and I am trying to 3 peat.

Edited by BearsFan4Life

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On 9/28/2016 at 6:59 PM, Arodin said:

Dixon over Howard.  Had them with clear separation after the draft, nothing has happened to alter that long-term analysis. 

I know this is an old post, but I still feel the same way despite what Howard has done this year. I expect in a few year Dixon will be a household name while Howard will be backing somebody up.

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

Allen Robinson - does he rebound next year? I feel like we should be trying to buy him everywhere for peanuts if possible.

Agreed, but nobody is going to sell him for peanuts. I think 2015 is likely his career year, though. I'm also interested in acquiring Hurns who really can be had for peanuts. He's only 25. I think he probably has several 1000 yard seasons in his future.

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8 hours ago, branch0095 said:

Brown will probably retire on my rosters, or at least stay there until he's no longer producing at a high level.  Letting players decline on my roster isn't something I usually do, but he's such a game changer that I'll make an exception for Brown.

As for guys like Julio/AJG/Dez, realistically we've already passed the prime sell-high window for them. Age is a huge deal in dynasty (warranted or not), and WR is so deep that owners just aren't going to pay big for WRs that are 28-29yo. If you wanted to truly play the value game, these players should have been sold 1-2 years ago.  Situation played a large role in his fall,  but DT was proof of this over the course of this past off-season.  Having said all that,  if you continually sell your studs in their prime then you're really hurting your chances of winning, so it's a bit of a catch 22.

The whole notion of cashing out on veteran WRs like Julio/Dez/AJG by trading them for picks during the off-season just strikes me as a terrible idea.  Picks/youth rule in the off-season, so you'd be selling low on the players and buying high on the inflated picks.  I think a much better way to go about it is waiting until the summer, after drafts are over and picks turn into players,  then trying to sell your vets for a package of players and future picks.  Sometimes it doesn't take long for owners to disconnect a rookie from the actual pick they used to draft the player, and it can become easier to buy that player after the draft than it would to trade for the pick prior to the draft. 

Ideally though ,  you'd want to sell productive vets during the season. The downside to that is it sometimes means you have to forgo making a title push that year, but selling in-season gives you the chance to pounce on the best opportunity when it arises.  It also gives you the opportunity to get the best return as you can take on injured/underperforming young players at a substantial discount,  and you're more likely to find an owner who will be willing to forget about "value" and be willing to give a bit more to get a deal done because they're trying to win a title.  In the off-season, nobody's forced to field a competitive roster or put points in their lineups, so they're much less likely to trade for a player unless the trade is on their terms and in their favor.

Great post.  I agree with everything except the notion of trading for a player just after they were drafted rather than trading for the pick.  I've never had any luck with that at all.  I think when it's still a pick, even if they're pretty sure who they're going to pick with it, there is still some amount of waffling/openness.  They're still, at least to some extent, entertaining the notion that they may get an offer for the pick they like, or decide to take someone different, etc.  Once they've made the pick there is some finality to it.  They've accepted that this is their guy and I think they're less likely to move them.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy (at least not a guy with good value like a 1st rounder) traded in any of my dynasty leagues between the time they were selected in the rookie draft and the start of their rookie season.  And I have certainly tried buying.

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7 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Allen Robinson - does he rebound next year? I feel like we should be trying to buy him everywhere for peanuts if possible.

I'm holding out hope for A-Rob.  A lot of people have soured on him, but as an owner, I'm holding.  I've only been offered a late first for him, or some vets who aren't in the same caliber as him (closer if it was redraft).  I think that if there's a coaching change this offseason and someone can force Bortles to improve his mechanics back to where they were last year, then A-Rob has a chance to regain his greatness.

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6 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I know this is an old post, but I still feel the same way despite what Howard has done this year. I expect in a few year Dixon will be a household name while Howard will be backing somebody up.

Respect the call, but disagree.  I think Howard is going to stick.  I don't have a strong opinion on Dixon either way, but I'd happily bet against him being a household name.  

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8 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Allen Robinson - does he rebound next year? I feel like we should be trying to buy him everywhere for peanuts if possible.

I tried but the guy thinks he will be a WR1 next year, so the price was too high.  But I'd be a buyer if I could get him at WR2/3 prices. 

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