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1.1
Dalvin Cook
Nothing wrong with that trade, Evans is a player I have always valued a bit more than Robinson though, same tier I guess but Evans likely closer to the 11 tier than tier one. The 2014 draft was fantastic and I waved between Evans and Watkins as the best of that great group. I had Robinson in tier 2 before I watched more of him. To be honest some of Ryan Riddles comments opened my eyes about him and after watching some more I decided to move him into the tier one group that was already very deep.
I know he was part of the 2014 draft class. Did I say something confusing that suggests otherwise? If so not intentionally.
No worries, but yea you said "What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside.", and also "Robinson might have hit his career mark in TD as a rookie".
My bad talking about a bunch of different time frames and perspectives here.Easy to get some wires crossed.FreeBaGeL said:
I completely agree with you here too. It's definitely not something that happens with regularity, but with certain owners it is possible. I think for there to be a real opportunity to pull off moves like this, you need to find owners that tend to overreact to off-season news blurbs.
Well, my opinion is admittedly strongly influenced by Waldman on RBs and he said before the draft and recently reiterated that Dixon is still the one to own. My takeaway from reading all his stuff is that Howard is good, not great, whereas Dixon is more of a special talent. Also, as someone who has owned both and has watched many a one year wonder, I just don't feel that confident about Howard. I mainly drafted him bc I thought Langford sucked, but don't like the direction the Bears are going. It kind of reminds me of Doug Martin a bit in that his stats were better than he was (not that he was bad, just not that good), but also the team itself crumbled around him.Concept Coop said:
I respect the hell out of Waldman. But at a certain point in the process, what a player is actually doing has to supersede what anyone thought they would do. Waldman was making a projection on how Howard would do in the NFL. He didn't have the luxury that we have today: We've seen him in the NFL. Howard has already outperformed the article's projected ceiling. Based on that, I think he's an asset where Dixon is still a maybe. There's still some Bryce Butler flame out potential, and I'm not sure he's completely safe from a timeshare, but I like his odds.
2012 Larry Fitzgerald. He was too old to be a top 10 asset after bouncing back, but he did bounce back.
Some other WRs with similar patterns: Randy Moss in Oakland (he was in his late 20s by then, but he had 3 huge NE years left). Steve Smith whenever Delhomme was out, including most of the 2007 season. Isaac Bruce at age 25 in 1997 (although he missed some games). Anquan Boldin's second season (although he also missed some games). Reggie Wayne was a late-career thing, but he put up basically the same totals in his last Manning season and his first Luck season with a huge dip in between.Concept Coop said:
I haven't paid enough attention to GB this year to feel good about my call, but I think he's a mid WR2. I can't put him in the Hopkins/Robinson or even Cooks range, but he's in the conversation after that. I will say that a good deal of that price is situational. I'm not sold on him as an NFL WR1, but again, I am not the most informed on the topic ATM.
Right now, most would probably pick Thomas over Adams but if Adams continues to develop as he has this year, Cobb continues to remain JAG, and Nelson eventually retires, I'm hoping they're in the same tier below the uber-stud WRs.
And yet DT sits at WR 9 in PPR, with a legit chance to move to WR 6 or 7 over the last week or two. And that's with a bum hip for a few games. No one believes in this guy but he continues to put up very good numbers no matter who the QB is. If he gets a legit QB next year, I see no reason why he can't be top 5.
And yet? Why do you lead off with "and yet"? That was weird. And from there you managed to get really defensive about DT and not answer the question. Anyway, in regular ol' 1ppr he sits at 10th, not 9th, behind Crabtree. So if this was one of those 10 times you picked him over the Crabman, you missed. But congrats on being part of the consensus opinion. It's a long and lonely branch.
Good topic and I think the correct answer is (mostly) name value. I'd throw Dez Bryant into that conversation as well. I have no issue with anyone preferring DT or Dez to Crabtree, but the gulf, as you put it, is greatly exaggerated. In that context, Crabtree is a clear buy.
At this point, I think I'd take the draft picks, then rank it Hopkins, Robinson, Gurley. QB situations and coaching flux are all factors that devalue those guys.
Crabtree has been dealing with an ankle injury for like 5 weeks, so I'm not buying that DT's health has greatly set him back this year. Currently, DT has 9.3 targets/game and a 64% catch rate which is pretty good. While the QB situation could get better next year, it could also get worse. Crabtree at least has continuity going for him at QB. You'd think that would count for something.ThreeThousand said:
I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that. Simply put, they're more talented. But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO. And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.ThreeThousand said:
Yeah, Dez is a year younger so I figured DT made for a better comp. But with Dez's injury history, his ranking is really based on a personal preference for injury risk. When healthy, he's one of the few guys that can be top 5 in points without being top 5 in targets.Concept Coop said:
I think they should be ranked very similarly, but if we want to get into the nitty gritty of it, I think Crabtree will age better than DT. His strengths are route running and hands and those items have a longer expiration date than speed. I don't think anyone will want to count on either player as their WR3 at age 35, but if we were to place a bet right now as to which one will still be in the league at age 35, I'd take Crabtree over DT. So I expect them to put up similar fantasy stats for the next 2 years, but DT's cliff will come faster and fall off harder. Vincent Jackson-esque. Crabtree is more like a poor man's Fitzgerald.
Who's defensive here? Geez.FF Ninja said:
I'll agree that Crabtree should be a little higher. I think DT is ranked about right.
You keep looking backwards. We're talking about dynasty rankings. Had Crabtree played on that Denver team with Peyton as his QB, then I'm sure things would be different. His early years were spent on SF teams where he didn't have crazy volume like DT (even with mediocre QBs, he's propped up by volume). He's only had two seasons in Oakland and they've both been good. He's got 3 more seasons in Oakland. How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?
All we have is the past to look at to see how guys perform, so it's very relevant.
Sure, the past can help predict future performance but the problem is that a WR's performance is largely tied to the system he's in. So basing future predictions off of Crabtree's SF days is stupid. He's not in SF anymore. He's got two years with Derek Carr under his belt and he'll have three more. Ignore SF, just look at the relevant years. As for DT, I'm sorry but the days of 4500 yards and 45 TDs passing in Denver are gone. Ignore those years because they aren't relevant anymore. Peyton isn't coming back. Look at the last two years. That's about what's he'll have going forward. Denver's aggregate QB last year was 12th in attempts and 14th in passing yards, so it's not like Old Peyton + Oz = absolutely horrible as you say. That many yards and attempts still produces WR points in a PPR format. That range of QB performance is probably what DT will be dealing with for the next few years, so 2015 and 2016 should be pretty good predictors for him. (so far this season, DEN QB = 18th in yards and 16th in attempts)
I'd move him for 1.02 or 1.03 if you could (assuming not a Devy league). I'd rather have Fournette, Cook, or Michael Williams.
Why do you think Michael Williams will be better than Thomas?
I don't have a lot of confidence in my perspective here, so take it with a grain of salt, but my feeling is that he's a sell high. And I wouldn't really want Cooks, either. I think both are inflated by Brees' ability and the system Sean Payton runs. IIRC, Matt Harmon's reception perception wasn't particularly glowing for either of those two players. With Brees getting older, I'd try to move both of those guys. Maybe see if you can find a disgruntled AR15 owner, or give up his youth for a better, older WR.
I don't necessarily think he'll be as good as a rookie, but I think he has more long-term potential (depending on what team he goes to). He's 1.5 years younger and I don't trust any Saint to put up reliable numbers and who knows what will happen when Brees leaves (which could happen this offseason).
NO, they can't. Because Bell is every bit as situation dependent as Zeke. They're still either the top 2 or 2 of the top few RBs in the league, but they rely heavily on their teammates. Pretty much the same as every RB not named Barry (maybe LT and AD in their prime) does.
I think this last week is a good example of what you are pointing out. While DT has performed well with bad QB's over the past two years, Siemian was awful Sunday, and it followed that DT was bad too. I'm not going to change my thoughts on DT on one game, but it's pretty easy to see how DT could start declining if the QB play in Denver doesn't improve. I personally don't think they will stick with Siemian next year, and I could see them bringing in a vet like Romo, but we'll see. If that happens, I think DT's value goes up and he's easily a top 8 WR.
I ended up with 1.04 and 1.07. The guys with the top two picks have shown no desire to even talk trades. I am loaded at WR in my dyno; wondering if I trade back from 1.04, pick up extra picks and let other take a WR? But will everyone go RB crazy in the top 6?
Hard to say Cooper had a down year when he's only played 2 years and this year was better than last year. Sure, Cooper could develop and steal some targets, but there are plenty of targets to go around on that offense and it is no guarantee that Cooper will actually take that step. Through week 16 (in 1ppr) Crabtree is WR9, DT is WR13, and Cooper is WR14 (in standard they are 11, 16, 13 respectively). Cooper is the deep threat while Crabtree is better at the goal line. On the whole, I think they complement each other pretty well, so one should not negatively impact the other very much if at all. 
