32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Rank these assets and expected compensation.
AP
Theo Riddick
Crabtree
Ware/Charles
AP
Theo Riddick
Crabtree
Ware/Charles
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Miller is a hold for me. I will also try to acquire him elsewhere if the price is reasonable. I believe a lot of his issues are related to the oline and to a lesser degree the QB play. The Texans lost Nick Martin in preseason, and played without Duane Brown for several weeks.
Martin will return and I expect the Texans will bolster the oline thru FA and the draft.
matttyl
Footballguy
I have the 1.1 (and 1.4). What would fair value be for the #1, honestly? I already own Zeke. Maybe Beckham, Evans, Bell, David Johnson, Cooper, Brown, or Julio? Honestly don't know if I'd move it for AJ Green alone. If I didn't have Reed and Ebron then maybe I'd do it for Gronk? Anything else would be a combo of stuff.
Maybe I move the #4 first, and then ask for more if I were to move the 1.
Milkman
Footballguy
Dak is my #4 rated QB. There's only 3 QB's I'd take in front of him. Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. He's got an elite WR that is 28 years old, his OL is the best in football, and a good RB but all that alone is not what pushes him into that elite tier.......he's got 6 rushing TD's this year. He's going to run for 5-8 TD's a year for the next 4-5 years. Couple that with 30+ passing TD potential and you can see him having a year or two like Cam had last year. Cam got a lot of people into the playoffs with his monster year......32 Counter Pass said:
It's close between Cam and Dak but Cam isn't running anymore. Non running Cam is just mediocre......plus Dak is Cam just 4 years younger.......
****edit****
I might even rank him in front of Rodgers.....it's close. Dak is 10 years younger than Rodgers so if I was rebuilding I'd rather have Dak. If I was a contender than I'd rather have Rodgers.
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In the NFL, I would expect teams to put a premium on OL after seeing DAL draft success. They built an OL and then drafted the RB for the OL. INDY just added 3 guys in 2016 trying to fix their disastrous OL. You can't fix your running game by drafting a RB. You do it by fixing the OL.Hankmoody said:
ATL fixed theirs. Mack was a helluva signing. Wash fixed theirs as well.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Kind of proves my point. I wouldn't give any of those for #1 right now. There is no Dallas OLine in the picture for these guys. Oakland is the next best landing spot but they won't see Fournette or Cook and after those tow there's a talent deficit to weigh (as of today). One of the things I loved about Chubb and Mixon is that both could have been in play for them, but kiss that goodbye.matttyl said:
Fournette is probably situation-proof, as anyone drafting him is going to clear the path for him, but he's still not going to get the team factor EZE did. Cook in Indy or Green Bay would be very interesting. Under no circumstances are David Johnson, Bell, Gurley (coach resolution aside, if they clown that up he moves down), Gordon, OBJ, Evans, AB, AJG, or Julio in the conversation straight up. That next tier is where it gets fun - Hyde, Freeman, Shady, Dez, DT, guys with some level of age/injury/consistency concern.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
By the time the draft rolls around i expect the 1.01 to pull some first tier players. You'd have to be very shortsighted to trade it for the old and/or injured. Only automatic no's imo are Zeke, OBJ and Evans.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
This and I think 1.02 will also pull the same as long as both Fournette and Cook don't wind up in total timeshares.
kutta
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
What sort of compensation should I expect for Dak? Full disclosure I also hold Rodgers.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hes an older back already. 26 during next season. I could see a rebuilding team moving him for the 1.01 and bit more.
Milkman
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade him if I owned both. I'd trade Rodgers right now for peak peak return.
If you still want to trade a duel threat rookie QB that has outperformed everybody's expectations then I would say you should be able to get lower end WR2 you like or mid round 1st.
He should be valued in the same tier as Luck but isn't yet. He's a strong buy and hold not an asset you should be looking to sell.
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Spike
Footballguy
In one non-PPR dyno I am in, I have Luck, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins and Alex Smith. Just before the trade deadline, I couldn't get a thing for Prescott or Cousins or Smith. Nothing.
Maybe I'm in the wrong (ie, "non-active") leagues?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hard trading QBs in anything but very large or start 2QB leagues
Milkman
Footballguy
yeah but DJ is a duel threat RB that is amazing in the passing game. I could easily see a scenario where Arizona wanted to keep him fresh through the year as he gets older so they brought in a thumper to run in between the tackles. This would be a death sentence for most RB but DJ is averaging nearly 8 targets a game. If he only got 10 carries a game to go along with those 8 targets and the GL carries he's still a strong RB1. Lets take his floor for instance if he found himself in a time share. 60 catches for 700 and 2 TD's plus 160 carries 680 yards and 6 TD's. Admittedly I'm doing this quickly but you get the point. That's 250 points roughly if he was in a time share. That would put him at RB7 in my league this year. His floor is RB1 for as long as he can play 3rd downs and be an effective GL back. How long do we anticipate him being able to do that? The early down thumper work is the least valuable work he does for us playing in PPR leagues.
Nah I'm going to keep him until at least age 29 and I might just keep him until the wheels fall off.
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Milkman
Footballguy
I'm higher on him than most. I tried to trade him for Rivers before news broke that Romo was not the starter anymore. He then continued to play better than anybody expected and is now going downfield more which was the thing he supposedly couldn't do. I'm not against taking risks and I also own Rodgers. I will be actively shopping him to see if I can get into the first part of this draft......I have no issues going into next year with Prescott as my QB1.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah agreed. Luck and Rodgers (maybe with his play of late) seem like the only ones right now that would get any return.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Sounds about right, except my QB tier 2 is dak, Russell, Mariota, carr, cam and Winston. I'm biased and like cheering for players I like so I'd take Mariota but there's not a clear top dog in that group.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Ware, Crabtree, AP, Riddick, Charles?32 Counter Pass said:
Buy: Crabtree
Sell: Ware
Hold: AP, Riddick, Charles
A legit NFL WR1 or a legit fantasy WR1? Because he already pulled off the latter. His reception total might be kind of high for a career average, but I think he can probably touch on the other numbers regularly, even with a mediocre QB. Reminds me of Chad 85 a little bit on the field.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think Dak has the upside that his rookie production might suggest. It will be interesting to see the volume/efficiency trade off moving forward. I'd be looking to move him for Wentz+, if at all possible.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
NFL WR1. His target volume is higher than his target share, based on the system. Can he demand those targets as the top option on a team throwing the ball 36 times a game? Swap places with Dez or Green and what is/will he be? I'm having a hard time making that call.
Milkman
Footballguy
I disagree but this is why FF is so fun and trading in the offseason can be huge for your team. Watch that last cowboy game. He was throwing dimes all over the field. He's like a combination of a bigger Russell Wilson and a splash of Big Ben and running Cam. He'll be taking the Cowboys to the playoffs long after Elliot is out of the league.
If this is how other leagues value him I would trade for him across the board.
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Thomas is averaging 7.6 targets a game. I think if he swapped places with Dez or Green he'd probably see more.
I think if you're selling him for a pick you have the luxury of waiting until preseason at the earliest to see how things shake out with the prospect. Thomas just did what you're praying a pick can do, and it seems that there's room for more upside. It's hard for me to gamble with that but I can see him falling from low end 1/high end WR2 to a high WR3 type next year.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's only averaging 18 rushing yards a game. That just doesn't measure up to Newton or even Wilson. The 6 TDs are nice, but they can be fluky and I'm not counting on him getting 6 a year. 300 rushing yards and 4 TDs feels like a good baseline to me.
I don't see Ben or Cam, but Russell Wilson feels like a good comp. I'm just not expecting 34 passing TDs or 800 rushing yards from Prescott anytime soon. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll be a very good NFL QB and a solid fantasy starter--I just don't see a difference maker. Perhaps in a 4 pt passing league if he starts running a bit more.
I am a Cowboys fan, so I do hope you're right.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Dez has a catch rate of 52.6%. Michael Thomas is at 76%. What do you that number is in Dallas? Not to fault you, as I used targets as the measurement, but it's more than that. Can he demand and reward WR1 targets in a vacuum of a situation? I don't know that. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I'm not as confident.
Tyrell Williams is doing what I'm praying a pick can do. I'm not sure situation doesn't play a major factor in both cases.
I'm not very confident either, I did just say I could see him slipping into WR3 range (like Allen Robinson and Hopkins). But I'm even less confident in my ability to figure out dynasty RB landscape before the combine/draft. I'm a bird in the hand kind of guy there.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Zeke over Cooper is a no-brainer, right, even in PPR formats? I'm surprised to see Cooper being valued as a top 3 asset by DLF--both ADP and rankings.
Andrew74
Footballguy
Yes, but it's very close in PPR for me. As a Cooper dynasty owner, I think the DLF data is baffling.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am pretty sure Cooper was being drafted ahead of Elliot last spring and I drafted Cooper ahead of Elliot in a mock in April myself. Looking back at that draft, the whole thing is a mistake with so many WR being drafted by all of the owners (including me) that Elliot fell to pick 3.01
I still like Cooper a lot and I don't think he has reached his full potential yet. The Raiders are still a young and developing team. In the long run I could see Cooper and some of the other WR being top players longer than Elliot will, but the scarcity at the RB position and that I think his numbers go up from what he did this season, at least the receptions will in years ahead. Similar thinking with Cooper going into the 2016 season, that he would build on his numbers significantly in year two, which he did do in terms of receptions and his catch percentage improved from 55.4% as a rookie to 62.9% which is pretty solid for a WR who is also a deep threat and sees some lower percentage targets frequently.
I do feel like my rookie rankings are still disconnected from start up rankings and I would like to fix that. I did draft Elliot 10th overall in May, so I was adjusting but I cannot really explain why he fell as far as he did in that April draft.
In any case after seeing Elliot produce at a high level, he should be considered with David Johson and Bell as a top 3 RB that you might draft before any WR or at least draft after Beckham and Brown are gone.
In a start up it still makes sense to favor the WR who have potentially double the career that a RB will and to make that the foundation of your team. That is the strategy over the actual player value I think.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yeah but that was excusable at that time. Elliot was an unknown and Cooper was coming off of a very nice rookie season. Cooper at a minimum didn't progress this year at all, arguably he regressed, and Elliot busted out. EZE is a no-brainer top 3 right now and I don't see how Cooper is even a top 5 WR let alone overall.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah ill take 7-8 years of what I'm going to get from Cooper over the 4-5 years of what I'm going to get from Zeke. I believe Cooper is more talented and Zeke is in the better situation but situations are close. Really the only thing Zeke has over Cooper imo is positional scarcity.
In 5 years Cooper will be 27 and you can get a kings ransom for him but EE will be 26 and worth half as much.
In 5 years Cooper will be 27 and you can get a kings ransom for him but EE will be 26 and worth half as much.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I wouldn't say Cooper regressed. He's an interesting player in that he's faded harshly down the stretch in each of his two years. He was a big breakout early this year. After week 11 he was on pace for something like 100+ catches and 1500 receiving yards.
Had he kept that pace for the last month and a half he would probably be in the conversation for #1 overall dynasty asset right now. But for the second straight year he ended up on the injury report down the stretch and his production suffered mightily. He had 130+ receiving yards in 4 of his first 8 games and then barely broke 60 receiving yards once in his last 8. Maybe it's just bad luck with injuries. Maybe he's just not the kind of guy that can play strong through nagging injuries. His career could still go either way but it's hard to complain TOO much about him finishing 8th in the NFL in receiving yards in his 2nd year after coming into the league as a young rookie.
He just finished his first 2 years with almost identical numbers to Mike Evans' first 2 years (155-2223-11 vs. 142-2257-15), yet people seemed to excited for those numbers from Evans and disappointed with them from Cooper. Sure an ODB start would have been great but that's certainly the exception, not the rule.
Had he kept that pace for the last month and a half he would probably be in the conversation for #1 overall dynasty asset right now. But for the second straight year he ended up on the injury report down the stretch and his production suffered mightily. He had 130+ receiving yards in 4 of his first 8 games and then barely broke 60 receiving yards once in his last 8. Maybe it's just bad luck with injuries. Maybe he's just not the kind of guy that can play strong through nagging injuries. His career could still go either way but it's hard to complain TOO much about him finishing 8th in the NFL in receiving yards in his 2nd year after coming into the league as a young rookie.
He just finished his first 2 years with almost identical numbers to Mike Evans' first 2 years (155-2223-11 vs. 142-2257-15), yet people seemed to excited for those numbers from Evans and disappointed with them from Cooper. Sure an ODB start would have been great but that's certainly the exception, not the rule.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I find it helpful to look back on these things and try to learn from them.
Cooper did not increase his targets much from his rookie season, 130 in 2015 to 132 in 2016. So that is somewhat a disappointment from what I was hoping for, something more like 150 targets, which Cooper could get next season, and possibly in several seasons to come or perhaps Crabtree continues to get more targets than Cooper next season as well.
The Raiders did run the ball a lot more in 2016 (434 times compared to 370 in 2015) so this is another limiting factor on the type of opportunity Cooper and all of the receivers get in the offense. I still think Cooper has 150 target upside in years ahead.
I think people can make a strong argument for the top 3 RB ahead of any WR although I would likely still prefer to take Beckham, Brown and likely Evans ahead of them. It is hard to argue against Johnsons 120 targets as a RB and Bell has similar upside as a receiver as well. I do think Elliot can be more involved as a receiver than he was as a rookie, but I somewhat doubt he will see this many targets. It is pretty unique occurrence. For example Tomlinson had one season like this when all of their other WR were injured, which is somewhat the case for Johnson in Az this season. Johnson so good in this area that it seems more likely to be a repeat occurrence because of his talent, and not just the circumstances however.
That difference could be significant, even if Elliot starts catching 50 a year for the next few seasons if Bell and Johnson are catching 70-80
After the 3 RB Beckham, Brown, Jones, Evans so a tier of seven (that has a few tiers in that top 7) then I start thinking about Cooper or Watkins. So yes outside of the top 5 but still in the top 10 for me.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's interesting to me to see Brown on this list because he lacks the main thing that normally propels the WRs ahead of the RBs....longevity. At 29 before the start of next season, age will become a limiting factor in his value long before it will for the RBs, especially Elliot. Really he's about a year, maybe two away from a precipitous decline in his value. Even if he keeps playing at a high level this may very well be the last offseason where he can be traded for a real premium.
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jeaton6
Footballguy
Same issue here. Start 1 QB. I own Rodgers, Winston, Wilson, Dak and Tanny. Zero interest in them. Just have to hold til you find the right owner that has aging QB and/or finally realizes Dak/Winston are next Luck/Cam.
djmich
Footballguy
I dont agree with this, unless Elliot fails. A 26yr old stud RB is still worth a ransom. I go with Eliot easily here with so few stud RB's.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well as I mentioned I do think Elliots number can improve from his rookie season as happens with most good RB historically. So I would expect him to hold top value for longer than just this season. He could be a top asset for at least 3 seasons if he keeps performing well. At the same time, I don't know if he has the same upside as Bell or Johnson who I have in a mini tier ahead of Elliot in terms of what they can do for my team in 2017 and 2018. Elliot will not be reaching the dreaded 27 year old RB landmark (where people devalue based on age early) quite as soon as Bell or Johnson. I have issues with Bells off the field stuff that makes me nervous, which sort of dings him for me,
The perspective that the WR have more seasons than the RB does become less applicable to Jones and Brown because of their age being closer to the end of their careers. They do not have as many potential top 12 seasons as they did when they were a few years younger, such as Beckham, Cooper, Evans, Cooks, Watkins the whole 2014 WR draft class still has potentially another 8 good fantasy seasons left of their careers, while Brown and Johnson might only have three to five top seasons left, which is more similar to expected career length of the RB, thus giving the WR less of an advantage.
I don't want to say either perspective is wrong. I think you need to consider this from as many angles as you can. Some may prefer a more proven WR such as Brown or Jones who have had top 12 seasons repeatedly, and hope they continue playing at that level for the next 3 or more seasons, over a younger WR who could give them another 3 or 4 seasons of their career, but maybe not as sure to perform at a high level repeatedly. So that would make Beckham and Evans a different tier than Brown and Jones, even though I would rank them pretty evenly, despite this difference.
jeaton6
Footballguy
So when a RB hits his athletic prime at 26 his value is half of what it is at 21? So, DJ and Bell should be sold now because after 2017 their value will drop dramatically? Not sure why you're counting on only 4-5 years of elite production out of Zeke.
jeaton6
Footballguy
So when a RB hits his athletic prime at 26 his value is half of what it is at 21? So, DJ and Bell should be sold now because after 2017 their value will drop dramatically? Not sure why you're counting on only 4-5 years of elite production out of Zeke.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Anyone see AP moved lately? Have never owned him anywhere, and its one of my greater regrets since I started playing dynasty. Wondering if this is a decent "buy low" time for a 1-2 year run with him (fully acknowledging that he didn't look like a world beater last time he was healthy and I don't know if he's a Viking next year or what).
What's his value?
What's his value?
Milkman
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
If you're not a win now team I would sell. DJ is a little different because of how elite he is in the passing game. Bell comes with a ton of risk.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Pretty sure Peterson won't be with the Vikings next season.
I am not sure about his landing spot. Connections with Texas has me wondering if the Texans might be interested, but he could be matched with a number of different teams I suppose.
As Peterson will be 32 years old and has already shown some signs of decline, I don't think you will be getting the Peterson of old, although I could see him having over 200 carries and 10 TD type season(s) with a new team, I am not really expecting him to get 300 a year anymore, and to split time with a receiving RB who can pass block, as these are a couple areas that have not really been strengths of his, despite his claims to be working on improving in these areas year after year.
Peterson fumbles a lot, which makes me think he would not fit with the Patriots.
His value would be whatever you place a 200ish rushing attempts 800-1000 yards and 10 TD at. For a RB who will likely retire in the next few seasons and be worth nothing.
I suppose there is always the chance that Peterson (or Chalres) have a renaissance performance with a new team, but I wouldn't want to be counting on that. If it does happen you win the trade for a year but the other shoe is going to drop soon after.
As a buyer I wouldn't want to pay more than a 2nd round 2017 pick for Peterson based on this expectation, but there are plenty of players that might be worth parting with for the chance of that big season in 2017 I suppose. As a Vikings fan my attitude is set on letting him go, so I maybe do not have the most optimistic point of view regarding him. If he stays with the Vikings I would expect him to split time with McKinnon and not get quite as many carries.
