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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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On 8/6/2019 at 8:28 PM, hispeedthinmint said:

So what's D. Henry's value in PPR in relation to guys like AR15?

I don't want Robinson. 

They'll keep running the ball and spreading the wealth.  Between injuries and what have you, I fear he's doomed to be an 850 and 5 TD guy the rest of his career.  

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Where do people put the value of Henderson and Corey Davis this year?

I was offered verbally Henderson for Davis + "I think I'd need a little more." We never got into what more he would need because I immediately shot that down. 

Maybe I'm higher on Dsvis than some. Everyone knows I do like Henderson (although after week 1 preseason I'm glad he declined my counter of Davis and Carson for Guice and Henderson)

Just trying to grt a feel where people see Davis this year. Make or break season for Mariota, and maybe Davis gets 1 more year as a pass if TEN moves onto another qb in 2020. Personally I see him as a 3rd year breakout candidate. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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I don't even know what team Corey Davis plays for. Is it Tennesee? If so, I'm going to continue not knowing who he is. Love Henderson though, think he can average 5-6 catches a game. No problem throwing him out in the FLEX as early as Week 1.

Think he's gonna score a lot of 4th Quarter touchdowns when the game is out of reach.

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22 minutes ago, Raptors409 said:

I don't even know what team Corey Davis plays for. Is it Tennesee? If so, I'm going to continue not knowing who he is. Love Henderson though, think he can average 5-6 catches a game. No problem throwing him out in the FLEX as early as Week 1.

Think he's gonna score a lot of 4th Quarter touchdowns when the game is out of reach.

Henderson with between 80-96 catches?  Umm, yeah, not even a remote possibility unless Gurley is out for the year.  Even then, highly unlikely.

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2 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Henderson with between 80-96 catches?  Umm, yeah, not even a remote possibility unless Gurley is out for the year.  Even then, highly unlikely.

You're right. Make that 4-5.

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On 8/8/2019 at 4:44 PM, jm192 said:

I don't want Robinson. 

They'll keep running the ball and spreading the wealth.  Between injuries and what have you, I fear he's doomed to be an 850 and 5 TD guy the rest of his career.  

ARob may only have that, but IMO that would be Trubisky failing to develop more than on Robinson. 

2nd year removed from the ACL & 2nd year in that offense he could easily be more of a 1000+/8 guy. But IMO that is 100% on the QB. It was Trubisky’s shortcomings that washed the Bears out of the playoffs IIRC. 

We’ll see what happens, but it feels a bit like recency bias with AR-15 at this point. He’s a talented receiver - I think he’s going to be the steal of a lot of drafts, and still a solid dynasty buy. 

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23 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It was Trubisky’s shortcomings that washed the Bears out of the playoffs IIRC. 

It was their terrible kicker.

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It was their terrible kicker.

If Trubisky was better the K wouldn’t have mattered. 

He didn't exactly light up the scoreboard the game before that. 103 yards and shoulda been picked on 3 easy ducks.

cmon. they were lucky to even advance to the game that the K mattered after that. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

ARob may only have that, but IMO that would be Trubisky failing to develop more than on Robinson. 

2nd year removed from the ACL & 2nd year in that offense he could easily be more of a 1000+/8 guy. But IMO that is 100% on the QB. It was Trubisky’s shortcomings that washed the Bears out of the playoffs IIRC

We’ll see what happens, but it feels a bit like recency bias with AR-15 at this point. He’s a talented receiver - I think he’s going to be the steal of a lot of drafts, and still a solid dynasty buy. 

Their best playmaker got the ball 4 times. That's on the coach. I agree Robinson's fate is tied to Trubisky's development though.

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22 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

If Trubisky was better the K wouldn’t have mattered. 

He didn't exactly light up the scoreboard the game before that. 103 yards and shoulda been picked on 3 easy ducks.

cmon. they were lucky to even advance to the game that the K mattered after that. 

The Bears only played in one playoff game - they had a bye. Trubisky threw for 303 yards and a TD in the game they lost when the kicker missed the easy FG that would have won the game.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The Bears only played in one playoff game - they had a bye. Trubisky threw for 303 yards and a TD in the game they lost when the kicker missed the easy FG that would have won the game.

Maybe I’m thinking of the 1st half of that game. Ok, fair enough. He still wasn’t good. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The Bears only played in one playoff game - they had a bye. Trubisky threw for 303 yards and a TD in the game they lost when the kicker missed the easy FG that would have won the game.

They didn't have a bye it was the wild card round. But it was the only playoff game and Trubisky did just what you said. But as a Bears fan I didn't give a #### about the kicker. I was furious at the coach for only getting Cohen 4 touches. It was the biggest difference in the game to me. 

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10 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

They didn't have a bye it was the wild card round. 

Yeah my bad. They won the division but they were the 3 seed. 

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yeah my bad. They won the division but they were the 3 seed. 

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an internet discussion where two people made simple mistakes, each owned up to them, and everyone moved on harmoniously. 😳

Well done gentlemen. We may want to call  The Guinness book of world records to inform them of this first. :lol:  

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Price check TY Hilton. Trying to get Metcalf. I'm thinking they're about even but not really sure.

If I was offered Metcalf for my Hilton I’d reject without counter.  If I was offered Hilton for my Metcalf I’d break my mouse accepting.

Full disclosure, I’m on record here as saying Hilton is criminally undervalued, and I’m far from sold on Metcalf yet.  For me, maybe Metcalf+1st gets Hilton.

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Price check TY Hilton. Trying to get Metcalf. I'm thinking they're about even but not really sure.

Things TY Hilton has going against him:

He's about to hit 30 years old

He'll make $15 million next year with $0 dead cap hit if he were to be cut

The Colts invested a high draft pick in a wide receiver that may well be able to replace his role in the offense

---

Things TY Hilton has going for him:

He plays with Andrew Luck

He's still a productive player

---

I think he's a player that, if anything goes wrong / not in his favor (i.e. injury, Campbell playing well, cap issues, etc) then he has the potential to lose a lot of value come next year.

 

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1 hour ago, ty247 said:

Things TY Hilton has going against him:

He's about to hit 30 years old

He'll make $15 million next year with $0 dead cap hit if he were to be cut

The Colts invested a high draft pick in a wide receiver that may well be able to replace his role in the offense

---

Things TY Hilton has going for him:

He plays with Andrew Luck

He's still a productive player

---

I think he's a player that, if anything goes wrong / not in his favor (i.e. injury, Campbell playing well, cap issues, etc) then he has the potential to lose a lot of value come next year.

 

There isn’t a chance in hell that Hilton is gone from the Colts next year. He has continued to play at a high level and has a skill set that can easily transition to him being a slot/possession receiver (a role he sometimes plays already). He has at least another year with the team after this one, maybe as many as three but I would bet on one for sure. That said, Hilton is probably approaching the value cliff, the point where he becomes worth far more to the owner due to his immediate points impact rather than long term value. Basically, how Green was getting devalued before his latest injury.

I am very high on Metcalf and think he could be something special but that is a chance whereas Hilton is a known talent and a good one. I would break my finger hitting accept on getting Hilton for Metcalf.

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18 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:
On 8/8/2019 at 6:44 PM, jm192 said:

I don't want Robinson. 

They'll keep running the ball and spreading the wealth.  Between injuries and what have you, I fear he's doomed to be an 850 and 5 TD guy the rest of his career.  

ARob may only have that, but IMO that would be Trubisky failing to develop more than on Robinson. 

2nd year removed from the ACL & 2nd year in that offense he could easily be more of a 1000+/8 guy. But IMO that is 100% on the QB. It was Trubisky’s shortcomings that washed the Bears out of the playoffs IIRC. 

We’ll see what happens, but it feels a bit like recency bias with AR-15 at this point. He’s a talented receiver - I think he’s going to be the steal of a lot of drafts, and still a solid dynasty buy. 

This. Robinson was on pace for 928/5 last year and he was playing hurt most of the time, so 850/5 seems really low. I'm grabbing him in redrafts and sending out offers in dynasty. 1400/14 won't happen again, but 1200/8 is within grasp this year IF he can stay healthy and Trubisky has just an incremental improvement from year 2. 

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RE: Hilton vs. Metcalf, any time you're dealing with prospects vs. aging players you have to weigh the shorter shelf life vs. the probability of busting. Only a fraction of draft picks hit, so maybe the EV favors the Hilton side unless you're certain Metcalf is for real. I don't like to trade for old players, but a good old player is more valuable than a bad young player, so it really just hinges on your assessment of Metcalf. Hilton likely has 2-3 years of solid production left, with a reasonable chance for more. That may be more than you get from Metcalf's entire career. Then again, if Metcalf hits then he's far more valuable.

As for A-Rob, he's flipped from being overrated last year to underrated this year. His production wasn't that bad last season when you consider he had a young QB, was on a new team, and wasn't targeted all that much. Modest improvements in QB play, efficiency, and targets will make him a startable FF player again. I wouldn't want to go into this season counting on him to produce, but if you can get him as a WR3-WR4 then the cost vs. value equation starts to look pretty good. I would say he's comfortably the best receiver on the Bears and by default that should lead to opportunities and production.

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6 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Who would you rather trade for Melvin Gordon or Zeke Elliott?  

Zeke. You know Jerry Jones is gonna pay that :censored:.

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6 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Who would you rather trade for Melvin Gordon or Zeke Elliott?  

I can’t imagine anyone would say Melvin. He’s a lesser player, less durable, and more likely to sit out.

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8 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Who would you rather trade for Melvin Gordon or Zeke Elliott?  

The only way anyone is going Gordon in this one is if they don’t know Zeke’s stats or if they very strongly believe Zeke is an off field knuckle head. But it should be Zeke. His per game average in the regular season is 101/30 with .85 TDs which means that his average 16 game pace is 2k yds from scrimmage and 13+ TDs.

Maybe Jerry Jones needs to refresh himself on the stats because he seems to have forgotten how valuable Zeke is to that team

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4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I can’t imagine anyone would say Melvin. He’s a lesser player, less durable, and more likely to sit out.

 

2 hours ago, gabes1919 said:

The only way anyone is going Gordon in this one is if they don’t know Zeke’s stats or if they very strongly believe Zeke is an off field knuckle head. But it should be Zeke. His per game average in the regular season is 101/30 with .85 TDs which means that his average 16 game pace is 2k yds from scrimmage and 13+ TDs.

Maybe Jerry Jones needs to refresh himself on the stats because he seems to have forgotten how valuable Zeke is to that team

Nobody is the least bit concerned that a former QB is now the OC with play calling duties for the Cowboys?  Nobody bakes in the likely 6 games or more suspension if 1 more thing happens to Zeke?  

I get it from a production or age standpoint that Zeke is definitely better, but I would also assume they are close since Melvin has multiple top10 finishes himself.  

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12 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 

Nobody is the least bit concerned that a former QB is now the OC with play calling duties for the Cowboys?  Nobody bakes in the likely 6 games or more suspension if 1 more thing happens to Zeke?  

Gordon's knee is more concerning than both of these things.

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7 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 

Nobody is the least bit concerned that a former QB is now the OC with play calling duties for the Cowboys?  Nobody bakes in the likely 6 games or more suspension if 1 more thing happens to Zeke?  

I get it from a production or age standpoint that Zeke is definitely better, but I would also assume they are close since Melvin has multiple top10 finishes himself.  

Kellen Moore as the OC concerns me for Dak and Cooper. I'm not saying he's going to be bad as an OC but he is a first time OC if nothing else. Gordon has multiple top 10 finishes, Zeke is top 5 ppg in all 3 of his seasons. Zeke is an order of magnitude better than Gordon.

The suspension thing factors in when we are talking apples to apples. If you asked me to pick Barkley or Zeke, I take Barkley because they are so close that the suspension risk factors in. That's the only guy in the same tier in my book. Zeke hasn't had any rough behavior since his rookie year

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How real do we think the Breida hype is? He looked great last year and McKinnon isn't right. I have the opportunity to flip him for Hines, which would have been a no-brainer a month ago, but that almost feels low upside if he stays healthy. 

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

How real do we think the Breida hype is? He looked great last year and McKinnon isn't right. I have the opportunity to flip him for Hines, which would have been a no-brainer a month ago, but that almost feels low upside if he stays healthy. 

That's lateral, if not a downgrade IMO.  Hines is now nothing more than Theo Riddick was or a poor man's Cohen.  His catches will go down so will his usage with all the WR's there taking the shorter stuff away from him.  I'd much rather have Breida and the chance for him to own that backfield. 

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2 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

How real do we think the Breida hype is? He looked great last year and McKinnon isn't right. I have the opportunity to flip him for Hines, which would have been a no-brainer a month ago, but that almost feels low upside if he stays healthy. 

I would not do that 

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3 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

His highlights occurred during the 3rd quarter of the 1st preseason game.  :lmao:

That's one way to look at it.


Another way is that he was the 36th pick in the draft (pretty high), had a good career at South Carolina, and runs in the 4.48x range at a compact 214 pounds. What he's showing in the preseason and practices is just an extension of a pattern that stretches back years. Moreover, that these flashes of athletic talent were shown against scrubs doesn't necessarily diminish the existence of the underlying tools. For example, just because Tyreek Hill was playing against amateurs in college doesn't mean he wasn't actually fast. In other words, the tools on display are real, even if the competition is not. Also, any time you are projecting an unproven prospect to the next level, it's understood that the level of competition will be higher. That said, even "scrubs" playing in the 3rd quarter of a preseason game are better than the average SEC player. 

 

I am here on a mission to preach the gospel of Deebo and encourage people to open their hearts and accept their new lord and savior before judgment day comes and he's suddenly commanding huge dynasty asking prices, but ultimately we all have free will in this matter and if you want to dig your heels in and be wrong then you are welcome to do so. :boxing:

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Ehhh.  I think he’s ok.  Don’t think he’ll ever be a #1.  He hasn’t flashed enough to separate from a pretty mediocre group of WRs in Niners camp.  I could see a solid career, but I think 70-900-6 is going to be about the norm if he pans out.  I’m going to be floored if he’s ever commanding “huge” dynasty prices.  Seems like a dime a dozen receiver IMO.  But preach on brother!!

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27 minutes ago, EBF said:

That's one way to look at it.


Another way is that he was the 36th pick in the draft (pretty high), had a good career at South Carolina, and runs in the 4.48x range at a compact 214 pounds. What he's showing in the preseason and practices is just an extension of a pattern that stretches back years. Moreover, that these flashes of athletic talent were shown against scrubs doesn't necessarily diminish the existence of the underlying tools. For example, just because Tyreek Hill was playing against amateurs in college doesn't mean he wasn't actually fast. In other words, the tools on display are real, even if the competition is not. Also, any time you are projecting an unproven prospect to the next level, it's understood that the level of competition will be higher. That said, even "scrubs" playing in the 3rd quarter of a preseason game are better than the average SEC player. 

 

I am here on a mission to preach the gospel of Deebo and encourage people to open their hearts and accept their new lord and savior before judgment day comes and he's suddenly commanding huge dynasty asking prices, but ultimately we all have free will in this matter and if you want to dig your heels in and be wrong then you are welcome to do so. :boxing:

The one you want is DK Metcalf. There's nothing compact about him, and he only runs a 40 as slow as 4.48 when he has the flu. 

Edited by cloppbeast

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57 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Thoughts on AJ Brown and Curtis Samuel?

Was offered his Samuel and 2020 3rd (late) for my AJ Brown

That's tough.

I don't think much of a late 3rd round pick, even in 2020 but if your league has very deep benches, it may have more value there.

They both have talented WRs across the field to compete for targets but Samuel has a better situation (QB). Nothing but good coming out of camp on Samuel.

Noodling it over, since it was offered to you, I might counter back with asking for his 2020 2nd back instead of 3rd and take that deal. 

Edited by Avery
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On 8/12/2019 at 12:47 PM, cloppbeast said:

Price check TY Hilton. Trying to get Metcalf. I'm thinking they're about even but not really sure.

I own Hilton and I like Metcalf. I would probably do Hilton for Metcalf plus a first rounder but I’d have to also gauge where I think that first rounder will land. A late pick? I might even pass on that deal.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Thoughts on AJ Brown and Curtis Samuel?

Was offered his Samuel and 2020 3rd (late) for my AJ Brown

Depends on what you're looking to do I think.  On one hand, AJ Brown is 3x (if not more) the prospect that Curtis Samuel was.  But that's the thing, they aren't prospects anymore.  AJ Brown is stuck in the mud on one of the worst offenses in all of football.  Samuel, on one of the better ones I'd imagine.  Not to mention the growth that Samuel has seen over his last couple years in the league.  Can we expect a similar path from AJ Brown or is his growth stunted by the useless Titans.  It's a tough question for me to answer, but if I needed a comfortable WR3 rather than wait a year to see, I think I'm going Samuel.  If I'm in a startup I still go AJ Brown though.  

Samuel is criminally undervalued all over the place right now though. 

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16 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I own Hilton and I like Metcalf. I would probably do Hilton for Metcalf plus a first rounder but I’d have to also gauge where I think that first rounder will land. A late pick? I might even pass on that deal.

#### man, I sort of agree. But show me a Metcalf owner who would do that?

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

 but if I needed a comfortable WR3 rather than wait a year to see, I think I'm going Samuel.  If I'm in a startup I still go AJ Brown though.  

Samuel is criminally undervalued all over the place right now though. 

I'll add to it even more then. If you are counting on Samuel as your WR3, then you aren't winning your league or even being a serious contender. The camp buzz is nice and all but these small quick guys always dominate in camp where the defenders are going half speed and can't really hit. I think Samuel is a very nice NFL player, but I don't think he'll be productive enough behind CMc, Moore and maybe even Olson to be a fantasy asset for this year outside of having 3 or 4 nice games which we will not know when to expect them.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

I'll add to it even more then. If you are counting on Samuel as your WR3, then you aren't winning you're league or even being a serious contender. The camp buzz is nice and all but these small quick guys always dominate in camp were the defenders are going half speed and can't really hit. I think Samuel is a very nice NFL player I don't think he'll be productive enough behind CMc, Moore and maybe even Olson to be a fantasy asset for this year outside of having 3 or 4 nice games which we will not know when to expect them.

Is he best as a bye week filler?  Yes, but he could easily outproduce some guys that are being counted on as WR2's.  Kirk, Shepard, Calvin Ridley, Sutton, Deebo, Boyd, even Lockett to an extent, all have similar outcomes to what I expect Samuel to do this year.  Assuming Cam is healthy that is.  Am I comfortable with them as a WR3?  Not particularly, since it involves risk there, but can he be a WR2 if things break right?  He sure can, along with the rest of that list.  

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6 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 Yes, but he could easily outproduce some guys that are being counted on as WR2's.  Kirk, Shepard, Calvin Ridley, Sutton, Deebo, Boyd, even Lockett to an extent, all have similar outcomes to what I expect Samuel to do this year. 

Yeah, I would easily take any of those guys as a WR2 over Samuel. The only ones he may have a chance at out-producing are Shepard and Deebo (and I'd take them in dynasty and in redraft over him). Moore is only a fantasy WR2 imo and he's a  better player and will see more targets than Samuel.

I like Samuel for the Panthers and I'm not saying he has no dynasty value - he could develop - but he's missed significant time both seasons and I'm only disputing that he's a "win now" type player like you implied by saying "but if I needed a comfortable WR3 rather than wait a year to see"...

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17 hours ago, EBF said:

I am here on a mission to preach the gospel of Deebo and encourage people to open their hearts and accept their new lord and savior before judgment day comes and he's suddenly commanding huge dynasty asking prices, but ultimately we all have free will in this matter and if you want to dig your heels in and be wrong then you are welcome to do so. :boxing:

Hallelujah!  🙏

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'll add to it even more then. If you are counting on Samuel as your WR3, then you aren't winning your league or even being a serious contender. The camp buzz is nice and all but these small quick guys always dominate in camp where the defenders are going half speed and can't really hit. I think Samuel is a very nice NFL player, but I don't think he'll be productive enough behind CMc, Moore and maybe even Olson to be a fantasy asset for this year outside of having 3 or 4 nice games which we will not know when to expect them.

I feel inclined to stand up for Samuel a little. Outside of McCaffrey, anybody's guess how the targets get distributed this year and beyond. As much as I like Moore, like Samuel, he's all hype at this point. These two are a lot closer than people think imo.

Edited by cloppbeast

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

I feel inclined to stand up for Samuel a little. Outside of McCaffrey, anybody's guess how the targets get distributed this year and beyond. As much as I like Moore, like Samuel, he's all hype at this point. These two are a lot closer than people think imo.

Moore was a first round pick and averaged 14 ypc with an average of 7 yards coming after the catch. He outperformed Samuel last year as a rookie in every way except for TDs and they are volatile.

Once again, however, my main point is that trading for Samuel because you need a WR3 for this season (while giving away a guy you drafted in Round 1 this year) doesn't seem like a great idea - if you like him long term that's fine.

IMO he's one of those guys that are better NFL players than fantasy assets though (I could end up being wrong about that of course).

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I would love to have Samuel as my WR3 with WR2 upside.

in PPR from Week 7-17 he was 22nd WR, which is WR2 (Moore was WR 24)

there is enough Samuel hype all over the place from camp that i don't need to regurgitate.

No one ever doubted Samuel's athletic ability (4.31 40). DLF had them as their WR6 in front of Goodwin and Kupp. He's just finally healthy and learning how to be a WR instead of a gadget player

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27 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Moore was a first round pick and averaged 14 ypc with an average of 7 yards coming after the catch. He outperformed Samuel last year as a rookie in every way except for TDs and they are volatile.

Once again, however, my main point is that trading for Samuel because you need a WR3 for this season (while giving away a guy you drafted in Round 1 this year) doesn't seem like a great idea - if you like him long term that's fine.

IMO he's one of those guys that are better NFL players than fantasy assets though (I could end up being wrong about that of course).

Samuel was at one point a 1st round pick, no? A long play as a rookie, his third year makes a great time to buy. No doubt a high risk WR3, but a much better option for that task than AJ Brown.

Honestly, the trade has more to do with AJ Brown than Samuel. Especially if I needed a WR3, I would take anything resembling one for him. And if you like the guy, try to get him next year or 2 after his hype has completely died. The chances of him adding to his dynasty value as the Titans' 3rd WR, well they aren't very high in my estimation.

Edited by cloppbeast

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