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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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On 4/13/2020 at 11:12 AM, Dr. Dan said:

 

Thanks guys, this is my gut feeling too. 

 

I think I just am worried McCarthy will destroy Zeke's value. I have zero faith in that guy

 

Ryan Grant seemed to do okay and he's not Zeke

Just as Dak isnt Favre or Aaron.

 

I think its a safe bet that Zeke is going to do well...injuries notwithstanding

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56 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I'm not sure I'd give him up for the 1.01 honestly. 

Man, I would not give up the 1.01, 1.02 or the 1.03 for Sutton! I can’t see giving up one of the top 3 rookie RBs who have more value for a WR with a still fairly raw QB and a defensively minded Head Coach.

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3 minutes ago, robb said:

Man, I would not give up the 1.01, 1.02 or the 1.03 for Sutton! I can’t see giving up one of the top 3 rookie RBs who have more value for a WR with a still fairly raw QB and a defensively minded Head Coach.

Yeah maybe the 1.01 I would do it and draft Taylor. But not those other RBs (I still have a hard time ranking RBs over WRs which I need to get over). This is why dynasty is fun though - there are lots of ways to do it. 

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41 minutes ago, Dope said:

Ryan Grant seemed to do okay and he's not Zeke

Just as Dak isnt Favre or Aaron.

 

I think its a safe bet that Zeke is going to do well...injuries notwithstanding

I can't believe I'm being the guy who quotes himself...but I'm going to show what I thought Zeke was worth in a post I am putting into the ###. Coach forum.

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2 hours ago, robb said:

Man, I would not give up the 1.01, 1.02 or the 1.03 for Sutton! I can’t see giving up one of the top 3 rookie RBs who have more value for a WR with a still fairly raw QB and a defensively minded Head Coach.

I think that just leads to Sutton's value even more.  Look what he did with Trashcco and then the rookie.  What if Lock is legit?

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Hoping you guys could help me with my pick in this best ball, PPR dynasty SF startup. I'm OTC at the 4.4 pick and have Lamar Jackson, Kamara, Godwin, and Evans so far. 

Best available: QBs- Ryan, Stafford, Darnold, Brees
RBs- Ekeler, Fournette
WRs- Cooper, JuJu, AJ Brown, Julio, Beckham
TEs- Engram, Waller, Henry, Fant
Picks 1.6, 1.7, and all of 2021 picks available. 

This is my last pick until 7.9. Seems there is still very good value at WR, followed by RB, and maybe even TE. Not sure I'm loving any of these QBs here, but realize 2 is ideal in this SF format. Although I could see some of the older vet QBs (Brady, Brees falling even to 7th or later) Thoughts??
 

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12 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Hoping you guys could help me with my pick in this best ball, PPR dynasty SF startup. I'm OTC at the 4.4 pick and have Lamar Jackson, Kamara, Godwin, and Evans so far. 

Best available: QBs- Ryan, Stafford, Darnold, Brees
RBs- Ekeler, Fournette
WRs- Cooper, JuJu, AJ Brown, Julio, Beckham
TEs- Engram, Waller, Henry, Fant
Picks 1.6, 1.7, and all of 2021 picks available. 

This is my last pick until 7.9. Seems there is still very good value at WR, followed by RB, and maybe even TE. Not sure I'm loving any of these QBs here, but realize 2 is ideal in this SF format. Although I could see some of the older vet QBs (Brady, Brees falling even to 7th or later) Thoughts??
 

I stopped reading when I saw the name Juju. That is my answer.

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

I stopped reading when I saw the name Juju. That is my answer.

and you trust Big Ben stays healthy and he bounces back? I only considered Cooper over him with logic that Dak > Big Ben or other Rbs used last year...

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22 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Hoping you guys could help me with my pick in this best ball, PPR dynasty SF startup. I'm OTC at the 4.4 pick and have Lamar Jackson, Kamara, Godwin, and Evans so far. 

Best available: QBs- Ryan, Stafford, Darnold, Brees
RBs- Ekeler, Fournette
WRs- Cooper, JuJu, AJ Brown, Julio, Beckham
TEs- Engram, Waller, Henry, Fant
Picks 1.6, 1.7, and all of 2021 picks available. 

This is my last pick until 7.9. Seems there is still very good value at WR, followed by RB, and maybe even TE. Not sure I'm loving any of these QBs here, but realize 2 is ideal in this SF format. Although I could see some of the older vet QBs (Brady, Brees falling even to 7th or later) Thoughts??
 

I'd probably take AJ Brown for the hype/trade value and see what I could get for him later. 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

and you trust Big Ben stays healthy and he bounces back? I only considered Cooper over him with logic that Dak > Big Ben or other Rbs used last year...

Juju is 2.5 years younger than Cooper. I absolutely do trust Ben will come back and I think Juju has a strong future ahead of him. Cooper is an enigma and I wouldn't want him anywhere near my team. I'm not worried about what happens when Ben retires. A little more than a year from now Juju will still only be 24 and Cooper will be 27, which is still prime territory, but from a dynasty asset valuation standpoint, Juju looks to be worth a lot more. He was a 1st round startup pick last year. But. It's your team do what you will. I ####### hate Cooper so you're asking the wrong guy about him. 

Edited by barackdhouse

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Just now, RushHour said:

I'd probably take AJ Brown for the hype/trade value and see what I could get for him later. 

I love Brown, but I don't know many guys in this league, not sure if that's going to bear fruit later or not. Don't know how active or how much trading to expect. There has been some during the draft but not a ton by any means...

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

Juju is 2.5 years younger than Cooper. I absolutely do trust Ben will come back and I think Juju has a strong future ahead of him. Cooper is an enigma and I wouldn't want him anywhere near my team. I'm not worried about what happens when Ben retires. One year from now Juju will still only be 24 and Cooper will be 27, which is still prime territory, but from a dynasty asset valuation standpoint, Juju looks to be worth a lot more. He was a 1st round startup pick last year. But. It's your team do what you will. I ####### hate Cooper so you're asking the wrong guy about him. 

I hate Cooper too (Redskins diehard) lol, and using same logic, age, long term asset, what about AJ Brown vs JuJu? 

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Just now, ffmail4me said:

I hate Cooper too (Redskins diehard) lol, and using same logic, age, long term asset, what about AJ Brown vs JuJu? 

I think that is a solid debate actually. I have no issue whatsoever with someone favoring Brown. At the moment the Pitt offense will generate significantly more targets than Tenn. But I do love AJ Brown myself. 

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If I'm reading this correctly, you currently have the 40th pick and your next pick is 81.  A lot happens, so I'd be evaluating what's likely to be my option at 81 on.  Seems QB is out of the question right now - too expensive and too old (and the early draft picks are gone).  You're going to have to be creative at TE, but on the ADP I checked, Fant slotted in at 82.  For me it's RB or WR and I see a whole bunch of the WRs you listed all bunched in the same area (around pick 40).  Taking it a step further, for me it's RB as the dropoff gets steep.  You might get Conner (85) or Guice on your next pick depending on how things go - and your shelf life is shorter.  Looks like you traded for an additional early pick and this is the price for that - not good or bad - just the price.  For me it's Beckham if WR and Fournette if RB, but I'm a minority believer in these guys . . .

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5 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Hoping you guys could help me with my pick in this best ball, PPR dynasty SF startup. I'm OTC at the 4.4 pick and have Lamar Jackson, Kamara, Godwin, and Evans so far. 

Best available: QBs- Ryan, Stafford, Darnold, Brees
RBs- Ekeler, Fournette
WRs- Cooper, JuJu, AJ Brown, Julio, Beckham
TEs- Engram, Waller, Henry, Fant
Picks 1.6, 1.7, and all of 2021 picks available. 

This is my last pick until 7.9. Seems there is still very good value at WR, followed by RB, and maybe even TE. Not sure I'm loving any of these QBs here, but realize 2 is ideal in this SF format. Although I could see some of the older vet QBs (Brady, Brees falling even to 7th or later) Thoughts??
 

You guys are drafting 2021 picks in the startup?

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How the hell are JJSS, AJ Brown, and OBJ all on the board at 4.04 but rookie picks start at 1.06?  And how do you have 4 studs already and still own the 4.4?  This seems like a league/draft where you throw a dart and collect your check in December.  Are the 2021 picks just "Team A 1st round pick" or are they pre-determined like you can draft 2021 1.01?  With as stacked as your team already is I would probably consider that.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Courtland Sutton = what 2020 rookie slot?

I'd slot him around 1.05/1.07. I'd prefer to take my chances on Jeudy or Lamb but would favor him over all the other rookie WRs (although I suspect one or two will end up better it's just hard to know which ones they will be).

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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10 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Hoping you guys could help me with my pick in this best ball, PPR dynasty SF startup. I'm OTC at the 4.4 pick and have Lamar Jackson, Kamara, Godwin, and Evans so far. 

Best available: QBs- Ryan, Stafford, Darnold, Brees
RBs- Ekeler, Fournette
WRs- Cooper, JuJu, AJ Brown, Julio, Beckham
TEs- Engram, Waller, Henry, Fant
Picks 1.6, 1.7, and all of 2021 picks available. 

This is my last pick until 7.9. Seems there is still very good value at WR, followed by RB, and maybe even TE. Not sure I'm loving any of these QBs here, but realize 2 is ideal in this SF format. Although I could see some of the older vet QBs (Brady, Brees falling even to 7th or later) Thoughts??
 

I would go wr, whichever one  you prefer. You need to diversify a bit imo with godwin and evans being your top 2 but on the same team. I would personally be more comfortable with one of those other wr, which are all pretty good, but not dependent on the same qb and game script to get work. Obviously they can co exist and produce, but the safer play is to diversify

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Ended up taking JuJu. Looked back at the 2018 scoring in this league and he was a MONSTER. Granted AB is not there now like in 2018, but I believe a healthy Ben will make a big difference. Plus I think Diontae is a heck of a young WR and should help too. So after mid 4th round I am pretty happy with my start of Lamar, Kamara, Godwin, Evans, and JuJu….but now I wait until 7.9 to pick again. This wait is going to be brutal. :kicksrock:

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I agree with Pringle’s train of thought. I would keep the younger of the two in Godwin and try to move Evans for the 4.5 and maybe small upgrade later In draft. Is so then I’d snag AJBrown, JuJu at 4.4 & 4.5 and enjoy The young WR trio of Godwin, JUJU and AJBrown for years to come. You’d be drafting both young and production right out the gate. 

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5 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

How the hell are JJSS, AJ Brown, and OBJ all on the board at 4.04 but rookie picks start at 1.06?  And how do you have 4 studs already and still own the 4.4?  This seems like a league/draft where you throw a dart and collect your check in December.  Are the 2021 picks just "Team A 1st round pick" or are they pre-determined like you can draft 2021 1.01?  With as stacked as your team already is I would probably consider that.

that is a fair point. as big as i am on juju the 2021 1.01 is definitely a strong consideration.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

Ended up taking JuJu. Looked back at the 2018 scoring in this league and he was a MONSTER. Granted AB is not there now like in 2018, but I believe a healthy Ben will make a big difference. Plus I think Diontae is a heck of a young WR and should help too. So after mid 4th round I am pretty happy with my start of Lamar, Kamara, Godwin, Evans, and JuJu….but now I wait until 7.9 to pick again. This wait is going to be brutal. :kicksrock:

It's a heck of a start IMO. Yes that gap to 7.9 is pretty large. I did a SF startup recently and my read was that from something like the early to mid 5th all the way until somewhere in the 8th round, really wasn't a ton of difference on my board. So if you're going to sacrifice some picks to get those extra early premium ones, these would be the ones to sacrifice. But that's a *long* gap. We couldn't draft future picks in ours, though, so that is a bit different. I would expect to start seeing those come off.

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So its mid 6th round in this startup, again I don't pick until the 7.9 (current roster is Lamar, Kamara, Godwin, Evans, JuJu) and I just received this offer

Miles Sanders, 17.12,  and 18.1

for

7.9, 11.9, 12.4


Getting another good RB would help this roster for sure, but without a pick in the 5th and 6th round, not sure I want to go until the 8th round for my next pick (I have to get another QB and need 2 TEs in the worst way)

Would anyone accept that as is?  And if this helps, here's a list of best available and 6.7 pick is OTC

QBs- Darnold, Brees, Jimmy G, Tannehill, Brady, Lock, Bridgewater, Minshew, Big Ben, Newton, Haskins, Rivers
RBs- Fournette, Gurley, Gordon, Mack, Montgomery, Bell, Kerryon Johnson, Carson, Conner, Ingram, Guice, Hunt, DJ
WRs- K. Allen, Ridley, Deebo, McLaurin, Boyd, Gallup, Thielen, Lockett, Woods, Landry, Kirk, Hilton, Hollywood Brown...
TEs- Goedert, Higbee, Gesicki, Howard, Cook, Jonnu Smith, Smith Jr, Thomas, Hurst, Harwin, Doyle, Ebron, Njoku
Picks- 2020 1.9, 1.10, 1.11...and all of 2021 picks available

Since the draft is only at 6.7 there is obviously a lot of those players that are going to be gone by my 7.9 pick (just guessing I bolded the next 15 players/picks that I think are most likely to go) so would you wait and see what might be available at 7.9 before deciding? Or is this offer as is good enough to jump on? 

Any suggestions greatly appreciated!!

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IMHO, while you need a RB.....there may be an acceptable one for you with your next pick based on the non-bold players. And, you'd keep your 11 & 12 picks. The 17 & 18 picks are garbage time picks, you don't need them. They are asking too much.......and, the rumor I hear is McCoy wants to go back to Philly.

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I'd hang onto the pick and draft 2021 1.01.

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7 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I'd hang onto the pick and draft 2021 1.01.

It may not be there by the time its my pick but great point

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Posted (edited)

Another offer, Sanders, 14th, two 22nd rounders for my 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th rounders.

This would allow my to keep my 7th, 8th, and 9th rounders. I realize the 22nd rounders are near worthless, but still would you consider that?? 

Edited by ffmail4me

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10 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Ended up taking JuJu. Looked back at the 2018 scoring in this league and he was a MONSTER. Granted AB is not there now like in 2018, but I believe a healthy Ben will make a big difference. Plus I think Diontae is a heck of a young WR and should help too. So after mid 4th round I am pretty happy with my start of Lamar, Kamara, Godwin, Evans, and JuJu….but now I wait until 7.9 to pick again. This wait is going to be brutal. :kicksrock:

Personally would’ve taken Brown and it would’ve taken me less than a second to make the decision

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Posted (edited)

I'm confused how a dynasty startup where you can draft specific 2021 1sts has any sort of longevity. Anyone who finishes in the bottom 5 and doesn't even have a shot at a high pick next year...why would they stay in this league? I get that they SHOULD because they knew what they were getting into, but there's no incentive and you're going to bleed owners after the season imo unless they're made to pay in advance. Even worse for someone who goes all-in taking vet value as some convince themselves to do, and then whiff entirely and end up with a trash old team AND no 2021 capital.

Seems like a recipe for disaster, league-wise. 

I realize a "normal" startup would allow you to trade these picks anyways, but they don't have specific value yet. Being able to draft the top future picks now throws a whole wrench in the way dynasty leagues are supposed to work imo. Even moreso than the way devy drafts effect future pick value.

Edited by ConnSKINS26
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2 hours ago, ffmail4me said:
2 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'd hang onto the pick and draft 2021 1.01.

It may not be there by the time its my pick but great point

In that case I'd go with 2021 1.02.

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On 4/14/2020 at 8:30 PM, ffmail4me said:

Hoping you guys could help me with my pick in this best ball, PPR dynasty SF startup. I'm OTC at the 4.4 pick and have Lamar Jackson, Kamara, Godwin, and Evans so far. 

Best available: QBs- Ryan, Stafford, Darnold, Brees
RBs- Ekeler, Fournette
WRs- Cooper, JuJu, AJ Brown, Julio, Beckham
TEs- Engram, Waller, Henry, Fant
Picks 1.6, 1.7, and all of 2021 picks available. 

This is my last pick until 7.9. Seems there is still very good value at WR, followed by RB, and maybe even TE. Not sure I'm loving any of these QBs here, but realize 2 is ideal in this SF format. Although I could see some of the older vet QBs (Brady, Brees falling even to 7th or later) Thoughts??
 

I agree with @barackdhouse - this is Juju and it's not really that close. 

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46 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I'm confused how a dynasty startup where you can draft specific 2021 1sts has any sort of longevity. Anyone who finishes in the bottom 5 and doesn't even have a shot at a high pick next year...why would they stay in this league? I get that they SHOULD because they knew what they were getting into, but there's no incentive and you're going to bleed owners after the season imo unless they're made to pay in advance. Even worse for someone who goes all-in taking vet value as some convince themselves to do, and then whiff entirely and end up with a trash old team AND no 2021 capital.

Seems like a recipe for disaster, league-wise. 

I realize a "normal" startup would allow you to trade these picks anyways, but they don't have specific value yet. Being able to draft the top future picks now throws a whole wrench in the way dynasty leagues are supposed to work imo. Even moreso than the way devy drafts effect future pick value.

I agree - that's really strange. And how is the 2021 1.01 still on the board? That's crazy talk.

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48 minutes ago, kutta said:

I agree - that's really strange. And how is the 2021 1.01 still on the board? That's crazy talk.

Right. It's far more valuable than a devy 1.01 would be and that would have already went probably.

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15 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

So its mid 6th round in this startup, again I don't pick until the 7.9 (current roster is Lamar, Kamara, Godwin, Evans, JuJu) and I just received this offer

Miles Sanders, 17.12,  and 18.1

for

7.9, 11.9, 12.4


Getting another good RB would help this roster for sure, but without a pick in the 5th and 6th round, not sure I want to go until the 8th round for my next pick (I have to get another QB and need 2 TEs in the worst way)

 

Well Sanders becomes a pick in those rounds.

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13 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I'm confused how a dynasty startup where you can draft specific 2021 1sts has any sort of longevity.

It makes zero sense.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It makes zero sense.

The only silver lining I see is if the 2020 season doesn’t happen then this type of league won’t have to deal with the questions and complaints of the 2021 draft order that traditional dynasty leagues, especially start ups, might have deal with.

Edited by BigAl21

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Well we had to pay for 2020 and 2021 when the league formed, so I guess that protects people from bailing too...

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3 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

The only silver lining I see is if the 2020 season doesn’t happen t

The chances of that are very remote - but even if that does happen, a better solution would have just been to randomize rookie draft order next offseason.

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The chances of that are very remote - but even if that does happen, a better solution would have just been to randomize rookie draft order next offseason.

Well as remote as it might be, if it does happen then this league will be in a better position than a randomized rookie draft order in 2021.

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3 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

Well as remote as it might be, if it does happen then this league will be in a better position than a randomized rookie draft order in 2021.

ok

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3 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Well we had to pay for 2020 and 2021 when the league formed, so I guess that protects people from bailing too...

It really is a weird system. And I still can't believe noone is taking the 2021 1.01 yet. Is there a special rule on when they can be drafted, like only after the 2020s are gone or something? You said this is superflex right? That 1.01 is Trevor Lawrence.

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17 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

And how are the 2022 picks decided then? Are they draft able during the 2021 rookie draft? 

That's a great question, I'm not sure, I need to find out. And no rule about drafting 2021 picks. I guess guys are all trying to win right now...

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Any chance we can get back to this Topic's main reason for existing? IMHO we have examined this league to death.

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I'm considering putting together a trade that would send Aaron Jones and 2.12 for Chris Carson and DK Metcalf......Is that fair? It seems like I'd need to add more. But how much more?

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4 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

That seems pretty close to me. But I'm not high on Carson at all. 

Do you still like Penny at all? Do you think Sea is going to draft a RB in the first few rounds?

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1 minute ago, Mark Football said:

Do you still like Penny at all? Do you think Sea is going to draft a RB in the first few rounds?

I don't like either RB, and it would not surprise me if they drafted a RB based on both players injuries last year and Penny so far showing little to nothing. 

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11 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I don't like either RB, and it would not surprise me if they drafted a RB based on both players injuries last year and Penny so far showing little to nothing. 

I like what I've seen from Penny when he plays. Conditioning and injuries have been a huge issue obviously. But if somehow he recovers from the knee and gets his act together, I think he has talent. That's a big if though so I wouldn't be surprised either if they used some draft capital to get another one. Penny does come pretty cheap right now though so for the chance he does turn it around he might be a good investment.

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