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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

T1 - CEH, Lamb, Jefferson

T2 - Higgins, Claypool, Robinson, Herbert, Burrow

T3 - Gibson, Swift

T4 - Jeudy, Ruggs, Dobbins

Did you miss Taylor, or is he outside of your top 13?

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Did you miss Taylor, or is he outside of your top 13?

Oops. Tier 2. Bordering on 3.

And Burrow and Herbert are closer to 1 than 3.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank R. jones, Fournette, Akers and Henderson?

Henderson, Akers, Jones, Fournette

I think Akers is the only one that moves up or down here. I have Henderson as clearly above Jones, but I think Jones can still fall off a cliff where Akers has more leeway. He could end up not really getting on the field the rest of this season and still be ranked above Jones. ROS I'd obviously put Jones above Akers, but I think it will take Jones winning them the Super Bowl for them to not move on in the near future. I was frankly shocked they didn't draft a high back this year. 

If Akers flashes at any point, I still think Henderson stays the 1A, unless Akers absolutely blows the doors off. 

I'm not really trying to invest in any of these guys. I have a couple Henderson shares and have been on his bandwagon in the past, but even though I have him 1st on this list I don't love it. Akers takes away from him and I'm not touching the Tampa backs.
 

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Not in any order within the tiers:

T1 CEH, Jefferson

T2 Dobbins, Lamb, Robinson, Gibson, Claypool, Higgins

T3 Taylor, Swift, Pittman

T4 Burrow, Herbert

T4 Gabriel Davis, Aiyuk, Shenault, Ruggs

Edited by barackdhouse
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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Not in any order within the tiers:

T1 CEH, Jefferson

T2 Dobbins, Lamb, Robinson, Gibson, Claypool, Higgins

T3 Taylor, Swift

T4 Burrow, Herbert

T4 Gabriel Davis, Aiyuk, Shenault, Ruggs

Davis jumps out. Mind expanding on his placement? Maybe I need to be targeting him.

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On 10/22/2020 at 2:31 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree on the plethora of WRs but I'm not sure there is going to be a clear cut RB to take at the top.  The current elite crop are hitting the age where dynasty owners start to lose interest that early, and the really young guys haven't played well enough to go that early.

I could definitely see DK going over Zeke who will be 26 by then, Saquon, Dalvin, CEH, and JT.  That leaves CMC as the real major competition for 1.01 but he'll be 25 and if they reduce his touches the back half of this year with Mike Davis looking like a guy plenty capable of getting 30% of the touches instead of 5% then that could really put the kabosh on the huge scoring advantage he was offering the last couple years.

Not saying it will for sure happen, but there is a pretty reasonable path to it.  In established leagues I don't think people would trade those RBs straight up for him but things are different in startup drafts where people are working from a blank slate and think they'll have plenty of time to take care of RB needs throughout the draft.

I’d hate to be stuck with the 1.01 this offseason, based on how things stand today. I think you have to go with CMC. I wouldn’t feel great about it, but I couldn’t justify a WR.  I love Metcalf, but I am not sure he should be that much more valuable than the WRs you’d be able to get at the turn. I’d have to give it more thought, but I think I’d pick the 1.12/2.1 turn given the choice of draft slots. What about you?

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Am I crazy to think you guys are all grossly undervaluing Aiyuk? Surprised to see him so buried in the rookie tiers or not mentioned at all. I’m not saying he’s Lamb or Jefferson, but what he’s done as a rookie is pretty impressive to me, and he just smashed last week against the Pats. 

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57 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Am I crazy to think you guys are all grossly undervaluing Aiyuk? Surprised to see him so buried in the rookie tiers or not mentioned at all. I’m not saying he’s Lamb or Jefferson, but what he’s done as a rookie is pretty impressive to me, and he just smashed last week against the Pats. 

Not at all. The class is so deep that some quality guys are going to fall out of the top n players. And I haven’t watched a lot of 49ers games this year; I could easily be too low on him. 

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3 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

How can anyone be anything but impressed with Burrow and Herbert?

Yeah they look great. Imagine they might not be the best qb in the class for a moment.

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1 minute ago, IHEARTFF said:

Yeah they look great. Imagine they might not be the best qb in the class for a moment.

I bet the farm on Tua in a couple leagues so I'm excited to see how he does.

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58 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Am I crazy to think you guys are all grossly undervaluing Aiyuk? Surprised to see him so buried in the rookie tiers or not mentioned at all. I’m not saying he’s Lamb or Jefferson, but what he’s done as a rookie is pretty impressive to me, and he just smashed last week against the Pats. 

It’s because he’s on the Niners, which is widely viewed as a poor landing spot.  

But he’s got so many attributes working for him that I ant imagine he doesn’t succeed; perfect size, incredibly fluid, sticky hands, gorilla-length arms, and crazy versatility in that he can be your prototypical downfield WR, RAC specialist, gadget player, etc.  Nothing he can’t do, but I agree in a sense that it’s such a loaded class that it’s tough for him to sniff the top 10 or so.

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1 hour ago, JFS171 said:

Am I crazy to think you guys are all grossly undervaluing Aiyuk? Surprised to see him so buried in the rookie tiers or not mentioned at all. I’m not saying he’s Lamb or Jefferson, but what he’s done as a rookie is pretty impressive to me, and he just smashed last week against the Pats. 

Top 15 in this class is like top 7 in most other classes. Aiyuk is awesome.

Nobody has Reagor in their top 15 right now, but he will jump into this convo as soon as he is back on the field. Also curious to see a healthy M Pittman, D Mims, B Edwards.

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4 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Davis jumps out. Mind expanding on his placement? Maybe I need to be targeting him.

Even though Buffalo hasn't played as well these last couple weeks, I love that they came out throwing this year. I feel like the future there is very bright, and Davis can be a formidable 1b across from Diggs. He hasn't done much but there was a blurb in TC about how he came in and was "teaching" the vets about the offense. A rookie. He has shown impressive playmaking ability so far. Had one TD called back. John Brown can't speak highly enough about him. 

But this list is pliable. 

I like Aiyuk quite a bit but not sure he'll ever get the volume I would prefer. IDK what Shenault is yet and I could easily bump Ruggs up. 

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1 hour ago, JFS171 said:

Am I crazy to think you guys are all grossly undervaluing Aiyuk? Surprised to see him so buried in the rookie tiers or not mentioned at all. I’m not saying he’s Lamb or Jefferson, but what he’s done as a rookie is pretty impressive to me, and he just smashed last week against the Pats. 

I think it goes Kittle and then some 3 way split from week to week between Deebo, Aiyuk and the RBs. Whack a mole. 

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

Top 15 in this class is like top 7 in most other classes. Aiyuk is awesome.

Nobody has Reagor in their top 15 right now, but he will jump into this convo as soon as he is back on the field. Also curious to see a healthy M Pittman, D Mims, B Edwards.

Totally agree - if he had been healthy all year I suspect he'd be right near the top of the rookie rankings.

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This was the knock on Aiyuk in rookie drafts ... bad landing spot. 

Shanahan has fed a dominant alpha almost everywhere he’s coached. Andre Johnson, Garçon, Julio, etc. Kittle certainly commands targets, but that cuts both ways as he also commands attention of defenses. Maybe one could argue Deebo was set to be the alpha, but they immediately drafted over him after a very productive rookie year. Aiyuk looks like a holy terror with the ball in his hands, and now Shanahan is manufacturing touches for him. How is his situation worse than Jefferson in Minny (Theilen to compete with, heavy running team) or Lamb in Dallas (Cooper and Gallup and Zeke) for that matter?  Yet those guys are untouchable while you can still buy Aiyuk.

Since Week 3 (he missed week 1 and was limited all week leading up to his week 2 debut), Aiyuk has been a WR2, is second among WRs in rushing yards, first in rushing TDs, and is averaging almost 14 PPG. Now Deebo is set to miss a few weeks and Aiyuk gets featured even more. This just feels like the explosion waiting to happen. 

 

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This isn’t as relevant to non-TE Premium leagues bc they take forever to break out and can be bought later, but I’ve liked the flashes I’ve seen from Kmet so far despite the poor offense, and it seems they’re starting to trust him a bit more. This is kind of a Hail Mary comment and I don’t want it to be misconstrued as a call to buy high for no reason, but he’s the kind of guy I could see making a big jump in year 2-3, in a mostly unexpected Kelce/Kittle way where they went from sleepers who were liked but not valued to obvious studs seemingly overnight. 
 

We’ve been let down by the uber athletic super prospect at TE way too many times for fantasy purposes. Howard, Engram, Njoku, even Ebron to a degree, and countless others that “should” have been studs and at times were valued that way based on projection and assumptions. But if you look at the profile of almost all the guys to currently be considered top-tier studs at the position (minus Waller who is the anomaly: position-change freak with off-field issues who broke out late), they aren’t the 1st round super prospects with more athleticism than grit—they’re the 3rd-5th round developmental guys who can move but are more well-rounded, guaranteeing them every down snaps and the trust of their OC’s: Kelce, Kittle, Andrews. Gronk fell into this category as well. 
 

NFL coaches think they want freakish jumbo slot WR’s at TE—or at least their GM’s think that—but when it comes time to get these guys on the field and design an offense around them, most coaches seem to show a reluctance to give them every-down snaps in the slot and end up wanting them to be more well-rounded, both to increase the variance of play calls possible when they’re lined up tight on the OT and decrease the predictability of the offense for defenses, but also to help in the run game and help protect the QB. 
 

Fantasy owners want these athletic jumbo WR type TE’s to be studs as well because we reason, well, if they can’t block but have draft pedigree coaches will have to let them run routes every snap even if their hands are a little iffy—dreams of endless fantasy points dance in our minds. Meanwhile in reality, most of these guys seem to bust and frustrate their coaches while the mid-round guys who develop into more well-rounded TE’s who can bully defenders and use their soft hands down the seam excel.

Maybe I’m wrong on this but to me Kmet fits more into that category of TE and could be a huge steal if he meets his potential (and that offense lifts off someday). 

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2 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

Top 15 in this class is like top 7 in most other classes. Aiyuk is awesome.

Nobody has Reagor in their top 15 right now, but he will jump into this convo as soon as he is back on the field. Also curious to see a healthy M Pittman, D Mims, B Edwards.

OMG forgot about Reagor

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11 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

T1 - CEH, Lamb, Jefferson

T2 - Higgins, Claypool, Robinson, Herbert, Burrow, Taylor

T3 - Gibson, Swift

T4 - Jeudy, Ruggs, Dobbins

Super flex tiers?

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11 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

But there are too many quality WRs and too few quality RBs. 

The drum beat since April has been that most of the RBs everyone loved went to bad situations for Year 1. Nothing has changed, IMO 

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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

No..?

Then you’ve got the QBs grossly too high, no matter how good they’ve looked.

I’ll take all five guys you listed in tiers 3 and 4 ahead of them and I hate Ruggs

Edited by tangfoot

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Then you’ve got the QBs grossly too high, no matter how good they’ve looked 

No. 

Both those guys look like set it and forget it QBs for the next decade. That allows you to use your picks to accumulate better RB/WR/TE's. 

It's an old wives' tale that you can win with any old QB. That's true, but only if you get lucky. 

Teams that took Kyler Murray last year are either loving what they have on their team or have cashed him in for more chips to make their team better. Given how poor the fantasy draft class was last year, he should have been the #1 overall pick.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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I’m not going to argue too strenuously against Kyler being #1 in a 2019 redo. 

Last year I took Harry at #2 overall and almost immediately realized my mistake and moved him for Kyler+ (taken at #5). 

But I still wouldn’t put him over Jacobs in one-QB leagues. 

Edit: maybe Sanders would be my #2 if he could show that he’s capable of staying on the field

Edited by tangfoot

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7 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I’m not going to argue too strenuously against Kyler being #1 in a 2019 redo. 

Last year I took Harry at #2 overall and almost immediately realized my mistake and moved him for Kyler+ (taken at #5). 

But I still wouldn’t put him over Jacobs in one-QB leagues. 

Edit: maybe Sanders would be my #2 if he could show that he’s capable of staying on the field

I wish I had. 2nd worst dynasty decision I've ever made, second only to giving up a 1st for Peyton Hillis :bag:

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43 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

The drum beat since April has been that most of the RBs everyone loved went to bad situations for Year 1. Nothing has changed, IMO 

A quick peak at pre-season redraft values disproves that. And I didn’t mean rookies, but the position groups as a whole.

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

A quick peak at pre-season redraft values disproves that. And I didn’t mean rookies, but the position groups as a whole.

Your gripe is that too many of the top RBs got hurt this year?  Okay. 

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Just now, tangfoot said:

Your gripe is that too many of the top RBs got hurt this year?  Okay. 

Did you quote the right post?

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Did you quote the right post?

“This rookie class is a lot of fun ... But there are too many quality WRs and too few quality RBs”

Please explain what I missed

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

“This rookie class is a lot of fun ... But there are too many quality WRs and too few quality RBs”

Please explain what I missed

I got you. Changes to the whole (VORP/baselines) impact subsets of the whole (rookie drafts).

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6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I got you. Changes to the whole (VORP/baselines) impact subsets of the whole (rookie drafts).

So, your stance is that league-wide there are too few quality RBs?

Isn’t this generally considered to be a golden age of fantasy RBs?

I don’t understand your usage of VORP in this argument

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20 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

So, your stance is that league-wide there are too few quality RBs?

Isn’t this generally considered to be a golden age of fantasy RBs?

I don’t understand your usage of VORP in this argument

Players are valuable relative to their position. A wild example to make a point: If every veteran NFL QB retired prior to the season, Herbert would be the 1.01 today. (Burrow at the time.) Changes to the whole (QB baseline nosediving) impacted value within the subset (QBs more valuable in rookie drafts).

Edited by Concept Coop

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I just went back and reread your OP for the third time and I finally get it. Thanks!

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10 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I just went back and reread your OP for the third time and I finally get it. Thanks!

I’m never as clear as I think I am.

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18 hours ago, JFS171 said:

This was the knock on Aiyuk in rookie drafts ... bad landing spot. 

Shanahan has fed a dominant alpha almost everywhere he’s coached. Andre Johnson, Garçon, Julio, etc. Kittle certainly commands targets, but that cuts both ways as he also commands attention of defenses. Maybe one could argue Deebo was set to be the alpha, but they immediately drafted over him after a very productive rookie year. Aiyuk looks like a holy terror with the ball in his hands, and now Shanahan is manufacturing touches for him. How is his situation worse than Jefferson in Minny (Theilen to compete with, heavy running team) or Lamb in Dallas (Cooper and Gallup and Zeke) for that matter?  Yet those guys are untouchable while you can still buy Aiyuk.

Since Week 3 (he missed week 1 and was limited all week leading up to his week 2 debut), Aiyuk has been a WR2, is second among WRs in rushing yards, first in rushing TDs, and is averaging almost 14 PPG. Now Deebo is set to miss a few weeks and Aiyuk gets featured even more. This just feels like the explosion waiting to happen. 

 

I kind of expected a lot of pushback on this, but maybe not?  

Anyway - Aiyuk is going to be a stud IMO. He’s under the radar now because he hasn’t yet received the volume. I say yet because Aiyuk missed week 1, Jimmy G got hurt in week 2, they did everything possible to hide Mullens in weeks 3-4, Garrapolo rushes back for week 5 and looks awful, and just starts finding his stride in week 6 when his ankle is healthy again. 

Aiyuk was quiet week six, though he did catch a TD, but it was basically his first consistent game action with his QB. Then last week, in a game SF completely dominated start to finish, Aiyuk gets 7 targets (28% market share) and catches 6-115. He was open at least twice deep - one JG threw him out of bounds, though Aiyuk tracked it well and caught it for a long gain; the other JG didn’t read the play and threw elsewhere. 

IMO, Aiyuk was already becoming the alpha WR over Deebo. He can do more things with his route running and speed than Deebo can (and I don’t buy he’s a 4.5 guy - not when he ran that with a core muscle injury for which he had surgery post-combine and consistently runs away from guys on the field).

Now he gets a chance to prove it with Deebo out a few weeks. Kittle will always get his, but I think Shanahan has lacked a true alpha WR in SF ever since he got there, and he knows it (Drafting Pettis in the 2nd, Drafting Deebo in the 2nd, and remember last year’s trade for Sanders?). Aiyuk looks like that guy (whom they prioritized in the draft by trading up to secure). If I’m right, Shanny has always fed his outside alpha (when he has a player like that), and once Aiyuk gets the volume of targets being thrown at Lamb and Jefferson and Higgins, watch out.

Don't just take my word for it - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TndiMaPR5K4

See for yourself - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0VvmgbUhn5Y

Note: that second video is from a 49ers beat writer. 

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On a different note, and all leagues are obviously different, how do you approach future draft picks when you’re a contending team (though perhaps not the outright favorite)?  

IMO the worst place an NFL team can find itself is stuck in the middle (think Marvin Lewis’ Bengals). Good enough to go 7-9 to 10-6 any given year, but never a real threat and never bad enough to get an elite talent in the next draft. 

Should we consider our dynasty leagues the same way?  If you’re currently in 4th-6th place but see an easy path to not only making the playoffs but pushing for the title, do you look to bet on yourself and trade your future picks for current help?  I’m not suggesting trading a 1 for somebody like Jamison Crowder, but pushing chips in on a younger player to put you that much more in contention?

Similarly, would you rather have the shot at the next draft class even in that mid-late first range or the second round, or do you prefer to cash those in for guys you’ve already seen (like trading right now for Aiyuk or Higgins or Shenault and betting they fulfill potential)?

Just curious as to the philosophy of other smart players ...

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1 minute ago, JFS171 said:

On a different note, and all leagues are obviously different, how do you approach future draft picks when you’re a contending team (though perhaps not the outright favorite)?  

IMO the worst place an NFL team can find itself is stuck in the middle (think Marvin Lewis’ Bengals). Good enough to go 7-9 to 10-6 any given year, but never a real threat and never bad enough to get an elite talent in the next draft. 

Should we consider our dynasty leagues the same way?  If you’re currently in 4th-6th place but see an easy path to not only making the playoffs but pushing for the title, do you look to bet on yourself and trade your future picks for current help?  I’m not suggesting trading a 1 for somebody like Jamison Crowder, but pushing chips in on a younger player to put you that much more in contention?

Similarly, would you rather have the shot at the next draft class even in that mid-late first range or the second round, or do you prefer to cash those in for guys you’ve already seen (like trading right now for Aiyuk or Higgins or Shenault and betting they fulfill potential)?

Just curious as to the philosophy of other smart players ...

I don't know if I'm smart but if I feel like I'm close to contending then I'll trade future picks for veterans I think can get me over the hump. You PLAY to WIN the game!

If I'm out of it as a middle of the pack team and someone will trade me a promising rookie for my pick next year, I'll take this year's rookie. Bird in the hand and all that. I'm trying like crazy to get Tee Higgins in a couple places. Reagor & Aiyuk are other considerations. But if its looking like I'm getting a top 3-ish pick, I'm keeping that.

I really dislike guys that are content to muddle around the 6-8 win mark. They seem to hoard players that they could use to get more future value, but just sit on them. What's the good of being three deep in quality QB starters in a 1 QB league, for example? Trade one and upgrade your roster somewhere else!

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2 hours ago, JFS171 said:

On a different note, and all leagues are obviously different, how do you approach future draft picks when you’re a contending team (though perhaps not the outright favorite)?  

IMO the worst place an NFL team can find itself is stuck in the middle (think Marvin Lewis’ Bengals). Good enough to go 7-9 to 10-6 any given year, but never a real threat and never bad enough to get an elite talent in the next draft. 

Should we consider our dynasty leagues the same way?  If you’re currently in 4th-6th place but see an easy path to not only making the playoffs but pushing for the title, do you look to bet on yourself and trade your future picks for current help?  I’m not suggesting trading a 1 for somebody like Jamison Crowder, but pushing chips in on a younger player to put you that much more in contention?

Similarly, would you rather have the shot at the next draft class even in that mid-late first range or the second round, or do you prefer to cash those in for guys you’ve already seen (like trading right now for Aiyuk or Higgins or Shenault and betting they fulfill potential)?

Just curious as to the philosophy of other smart players ...

I’ve always been willing to trade future picks if I think I have a legitimate shot to win the league. My leagues are pretty active, so I can trust that I’ll be able to pivot away from my veterans if I find myself needing to rebuild. I’ve been burned a few times, but have been generally successful. I’d trade a late first for Julio if I’m a likely playoff team, for example. That’s a huge boon to your championship odds over a 2-3 year stretch.

Every year that you don’t win is a year of wasted value for the players on your roster. Like you, I don’t want to be stuck in the middle, bleeding years. I want to be competing and investing in my current core, or selling it off for future value. I really don’t get the owners content to sit in the middle, watching their core age without getting top draft picks in exchange. (Usually the same owners with more than half of their BB$ leftover at the end of every season.) I like to pick a lane these days. 

I really like to trade packages for upgrades and use the wire to backfill depth.  I am able to find long term pieces just about every year.  Woods, Hill, Dak, Boyd, Cohen and Lindsay come to mind, from a single league. Biggest prizes so far this year are Fulgham, Mooney, and Gaskin. (Talked myself out of what would have been the winning bid on Robinson last minute.)  This helps make up for the picks I deal. 

Edit: I also like to “buy years”, add to vets for younger players. My favorite example - Gore and Stevie Johnson for LeSean McCoy right as he was starting to take off. Or McCoy, Demaryius, and Ben for Kamara a few weeks into his rookie season. I’d be looking to add to Thomas, Nuk, or Adams for Brown or Metcalf today. You can both trade rookie picks and maintain a young roster.

Edited by Concept Coop
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I don't post much around here during the season. I tend to just focus on in-season stuff during this time and kind of just lurk around. I'll post a ton more when I get into prospects for 2021 though for sure. 

There's a few players I was curious about that have gone unnoticed lately and their values have dramatically dipped, wanted to get some shark-pool thoughts on them

Courtland Sutton

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Miles Sanders

Nick Chubb

DJ Chark

Dak Prescott

Keenan Allen

And just to add even more likely wider range of thoughts, OBJ

Most of it is the "all injury team of 2020" that have their values so far suppressed that it's kind of embarrassing. Sutton and JuJu probably don't fetch anywhere close to top dollar anymore, but should they? Personally I like both as buy lows but I don't know where to put their values so much. It ranges so much with all of these players because of either their injury this year, their lack of elite involvement, or age. Or some combination of them all. Sanders had a few really good games, but it feels like forever ago and people are writing him off. Same goes for Chubb since there's been an equally good RB to replace him. Sanders, IMO, has a clearer future since he's got 2 years on his rookie deal where Chubb only has 1 and a direct replacement for cheaper. Chark has practically disappeared with Minshew struggles a little and his injuries but he had such a good breakout last year. I fear he's a 1 year wonder type that will struggle with overall team struggles in the future. Dak has a team around him but he isn't signed and there are some speculating that the injury will keep him out indefinitely. I don't like to think that way, and he's still a top10 dynasty QB for me but I imagine some are drastically lower. Keenan and OBJ are older with some injury histories but Keenan hogs targets from a gunslinger and a top10 dynasty QB but they aren't worth a 1st anymore? What? OBJ less of a target hog but Baker is a gunslinger too. His situation is a little more uncertain as they might trade him but the glory days of New York are far in the rear-view. 

Anyways can people pinpoint these values? As I've said they kind of range all over the place, some people are likely higher on some, some are lower, but it could be anywhere from a 1st to a 3rd I imagine. Probably there's at least 1 of these players that you wouldn't even touch. I have 2 on this list personally. Help me sort it out? 

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I don't post much around here during the season. I tend to just focus on in-season stuff during this time and kind of just lurk around. I'll post a ton more when I get into prospects for 2021 though for sure. 

There's a few players I was curious about that have gone unnoticed lately and their values have dramatically dipped, wanted to get some shark-pool thoughts on them

Courtland Sutton

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Miles Sanders

Nick Chubb

DJ Chark

Dak Prescott

Keenan Allen

And just to add even more likely wider range of thoughts, OBJ

Most of it is the "all injury team of 2020" that have their values so far suppressed that it's kind of embarrassing. Sutton and JuJu probably don't fetch anywhere close to top dollar anymore, but should they? Personally I like both as buy lows but I don't know where to put their values so much. It ranges so much with all of these players because of either their injury this year, their lack of elite involvement, or age. Or some combination of them all. Sanders had a few really good games, but it feels like forever ago and people are writing him off. Same goes for Chubb since there's been an equally good RB to replace him. Sanders, IMO, has a clearer future since he's got 2 years on his rookie deal where Chubb only has 1 and a direct replacement for cheaper. Chark has practically disappeared with Minshew struggles a little and his injuries but he had such a good breakout last year. I fear he's a 1 year wonder type that will struggle with overall team struggles in the future. Dak has a team around him but he isn't signed and there are some speculating that the injury will keep him out indefinitely. I don't like to think that way, and he's still a top10 dynasty QB for me but I imagine some are drastically lower. Keenan and OBJ are older with some injury histories but Keenan hogs targets from a gunslinger and a top10 dynasty QB but they aren't worth a 1st anymore? What? OBJ less of a target hog but Baker is a gunslinger too. His situation is a little more uncertain as they might trade him but the glory days of New York are far in the rear-view. 

Anyways can people pinpoint these values? As I've said they kind of range all over the place, some people are likely higher on some, some are lower, but it could be anywhere from a 1st to a 3rd I imagine. Probably there's at least 1 of these players that you wouldn't even touch. I have 2 on this list personally. Help me sort it out? 

My thoughts on some of these guys.

Juju - Not a fan, at all.  With Diontae and Claypool coming on I think there is little chance Pitt re-signs him next year.  And there are few situations he could go to that would be better for fantasy than being the #1 WR on Pittsburgh, where he already has been producing kind of "meh".  I think the concerns over him being a good #2 and a poor #1 were on point with him, and there aren't many situations he could land where being a #2 makes him a top fantasy asset.

Sanders - I disagree that his value has fallen.  He got hurt like 2 weeks ago.  Everywhere I've seen he's still treated as a 1st round startup pick.

Chubb - I've made my thoughts clear on him previously.  With Hunt in town long term to justify his early 2nd round startup value he's going to need to either score a ton of TDs, catch a ton of passes (unlikely with Hunt there), or rush for 2500 yards to make up for the other two.  He's a stud as a runner.  One of the best in the league, maybe the best.  But rushing yards are like 30% of a fantasy RB's value anymore.  I like him, but there is so little margin for error for him he basically has to break a 20+ yard TD run every game.

Chark - Douchey diva WR without the pedigree to back up his douchey attitude.  Dude is playing with a 2nd year QB who is on pace to throw for 4300 yards and 30 TDs and when the ball is somewhere he has to reach for instead of hitting him dead between the numbers on every play he acts like he's a Randy Moss talent stuck playing with Nathan Peterman as his QB.  Maybe a decent fantasy buy low, but a potential major headache as well.

Dak - I haven't seen much of a discount for him.  If I can get one, I'm a buyer all day.

Keenan - Crazy underrated.  The biggest concern coming into the year, which I had as well, was that the Chargers were going to drop 1500 passing yards off their typical total with Tyrod and/or a not so hot rookie under center.  It turns out that rookie is quite hot, and Keenan is right on his career pace, yet his value hasn't adjusted for it.  I'm buying here too.

OBJ - I guess for a 2nd maybe I'd consider it.  It's too easy to get stuck with these former studs in their late 20's thinking they have to bounce back because they've been there before.  Dez, Demaryius, AJG.  Just because a guy was a league winning stud at 25 doesn't mean he's going to return to that because he's now "only" an injury battered 28 in a bad situation.

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I'm off the juju train as well ( should have said choo choo train )

Might raise an eyebrow if he ends up in NO to replace MT next year

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In leagues where I'm in rebuild mode I've traded off 

Courtland Sutton - It's an MCL/ACL injury so, sadly, it's over.

Miles Sanders - I know I'm likely wrong, but I'm just not a long term believer. I did get a likely top 3 pick plus a bit extra in return.

DJ Chark - One of fantasy's biggest teases. He's a poor man's Darius Slayton - completely unreliable.

Keenan Allen - Prepare to get less than he's worth of trading away...which means he's a great deal if you're trying to win. Teams in the FFB playoff hunt should be looking to acquire Allen STAT.

 

I'm going to disagree with FreeBaGeL on Chubb. In a league that's surprisingly short on elite runners, Chubb is near the top of the list. He has faced off against some good defenses, but I don't think Hunt has proven himself to be Chubb's equal. I actually advocate a decent timeshare at the RB position as it prolongs an elite player's career and keeps them fresher later in the season. I think it's the trend and fantasy managers just need to build rosters accordingly.

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

In leagues where I'm in rebuild mode I've traded off 

Courtland Sutton - It's an MCL/ACL injury so, sadly, it's over.

Miles Sanders - I know I'm likely wrong, but I'm just not a long term believer. I did get a likely top 3 pick plus a bit extra in return.

DJ Chark - One of fantasy's biggest teases. He's a poor man's Darius Slayton - completely unreliable.

Keenan Allen - Prepare to get less than he's worth of trading away...which means he's a great deal if you're trying to win. Teams in the FFB playoff hunt should be looking to acquire Allen STAT.

 

I'm going to disagree with FreeBaGeL on Chubb. In a league that's surprisingly short on elite runners, Chubb is near the top of the list. He has faced off against some good defenses, but I don't think Hunt has proven himself to be Chubb's equal. I actually advocate a decent timeshare at the RB position as it prolongs an elite player's career and keeps them fresher later in the season. I think it's the trend and fantasy managers just need to build rosters accordingly.

Curious what you got for Chark. I'm in a similar situation.

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Forget Minshew's stats for Chark and watch the games. The ball looks like it's been shot out of his hand by a magic skeet gun every time he lets it go. Right now, for whatever reason, be it injury or not, he's just completely inept. I don't see how you can draw any conclusions about Chark while he is the quarterback. I'm rostering and looking to hold.  He's open. Ball's not there. Ball don't lie. Minshew's reads do. 

Edited by rockaction

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9 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Curious what you got for Chark. I'm in a similar situation.

Well I have CeeDee Lamb fever, so in a non-ppr rebuild I gave Chark, McLaurin, and Kyler Murray for Wentz & Lamb. I doubt too many people would do that.

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Forget Minshew's stats for Chark and watch the games. The ball looks like it's been shot out of his hand by a magic skeet gun every time he lets it go. Right now, for whatever reason, be it injury or not, he's just completely inept. I don't see how you can draw any conclusions about Chark while he is the quarterback. I'm rostering and looking to hold.  He's open. Ball's not there. Ball don't lie. Minshew's reads do. 

What's the guarantee that the situation will improve?

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

What's the guarantee that the situation will improve?

There isn't. But I don't think you can get a whole lot for what he's truly worth right now. Even back in the summer, I got laughed at for a first. And I laughed back about a mid-second. I think it's one of those two-year type deals where you're not in redraft mode, you're thinking longer term because you're stuck with him and his perceived value. I think the talent outweighs his market price, much like a bunch of veteran receivers we talk about, though Chark's not even close to a vet yet.

If I told you people about his measurables, his draft capital, and that he'd had a thousand yard season without knowing it's Chark and Jacksonville, you'd get very few people willing to part with him.

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