jtd13
Footballguy
I think you might be overvaluing the recruiting ranks. Those are mostly formed by not very well paid journalism majors, who are tasked with selling subscriptions to their site.
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WR Corey Davis, Retired (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Snorkelson
Footballguy
A very good point- and really, who cares what star recruit a guy was in high school? It’s irrelevent by the time you get the the NFL.
Its like trying to trade treadwell right now- no one cares if he was the 1.01 in your rookie draft.
I’m still really high on him. He showed he could stay healthy for a full year last year but had a #### storm of bad circumstances. The Titans had Gabbert throw over 100 passes for them and Mariota wasn’t healthy for a good chunk of the passes he threw as well. The bad qb play certainly cut down on the overall passing attempts as the Titans were forced to try to run and play defense. There were several games where no matter how good he was it just wasn’t going to happen. You’d have to project significantly more volume and likely more effective passing attempts this year.
Then last year out of division Davis faced a murderers row of coverage. He drew Byron Jones, Jimmy Smith/Marlon Humphrey, Josh Norman, Xavien Howard, Casey Hayward, Gilmore, Jenkins, Tre White. Now I know not all of those guys shadow. And there’s a lot of good corners in the league. But between Ramsey twice, Hayward, the Bmore secondary, Norman, Howard that’s 6 games against elite shadow coverage and a few more against good-very good corners. I think Davis has the talent to produce against that kind of coverage but with banged up Mariota/Gabbert it’s just not going to happen. This year he gets White and Hayward again but those other names are replaced with the secondaries of Cleveland, Tampa, Atl, NO, Carolina, Denver, Oakland, KC. That’s much much much more palatable.
I’m not terribly concerned about 35 year old Delanie Walker coming off a season ending injury stealing too many targets. AJ Brown will but it’s almost certain he’ll be drawing from a larger pie, assuming Mariota can stay healthy. I like AJ Brown’s game but I don’t think he is as good as Davis and would be surprised if he ends up passing him as the top target. If he comes in legit though then the Titans would be wise to throw even more.
All in all, I’m still very bullish on him. He had 65/891 last year and it’s easy to make the case that if Mariota was healthy the whole year he’d have tacked on several more catches and cracked 1000 yards. Now he gets Mariota presumably back to full health and adds a more capable backup, as well as ditching a horrendously tough schedule for pretty much the exact opposite. There should be many more games where the Titans are willing to open it up and throw the ball more. Thoughts? Am I just a biased owner?
Then last year out of division Davis faced a murderers row of coverage. He drew Byron Jones, Jimmy Smith/Marlon Humphrey, Josh Norman, Xavien Howard, Casey Hayward, Gilmore, Jenkins, Tre White. Now I know not all of those guys shadow. And there’s a lot of good corners in the league. But between Ramsey twice, Hayward, the Bmore secondary, Norman, Howard that’s 6 games against elite shadow coverage and a few more against good-very good corners. I think Davis has the talent to produce against that kind of coverage but with banged up Mariota/Gabbert it’s just not going to happen. This year he gets White and Hayward again but those other names are replaced with the secondaries of Cleveland, Tampa, Atl, NO, Carolina, Denver, Oakland, KC. That’s much much much more palatable.
I’m not terribly concerned about 35 year old Delanie Walker coming off a season ending injury stealing too many targets. AJ Brown will but it’s almost certain he’ll be drawing from a larger pie, assuming Mariota can stay healthy. I like AJ Brown’s game but I don’t think he is as good as Davis and would be surprised if he ends up passing him as the top target. If he comes in legit though then the Titans would be wise to throw even more.
All in all, I’m still very bullish on him. He had 65/891 last year and it’s easy to make the case that if Mariota was healthy the whole year he’d have tacked on several more catches and cracked 1000 yards. Now he gets Mariota presumably back to full health and adds a more capable backup, as well as ditching a horrendously tough schedule for pretty much the exact opposite. There should be many more games where the Titans are willing to open it up and throw the ball more. Thoughts? Am I just a biased owner?
Gandalf
Footballguy
I agree. And if Mariota can’t get his act together this year, the titans will draft a franchise QB round 1 in 2020
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Then we will have to wait for that chemistry to develop. Then another coaching change....etc.
Gandalf
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am rooting for the guy, just not sure it will all come together for him anytime soon. However the great ones succeed despite hurdles, just not sure he is of that caliber.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No one is mistaking Davis for Hopkins, but several "great ones" did not do well with poor QB play- Adams, Hilton, AB
With every glowing report of the WRs, it really makes me pause about Mariota's rankings. I am certainly not falling for that again, but every report is great. What are ya looking for from camp days with drills? It's reported. Davis working with Brown, competing in simple running drills, Humphries showing that hustle that made the UDFA a success, Tajae and Taylor doing their "don't forget about me" routine, new UDFAs bringing hustle and hunger....it's all wonderful.
And Smith certainly looks like he knows what needs to be done. OCs stand by the QB, behind the QB, maybe approach the OL. Whatever Smith was doing way down field or out wide waving his hands had to be good. Robiske was a former WR coach and he never left the center of the field. I'm not....it is sooo early, but it is great to see Smith "everywhere" and being involved. In some pics, the QB coach and Delanie are with him by the WRs. In other pics, Delanie looks like he's pressing them like a CB and pointing at their feet. Just pics but...yeah you three get all over those young guys.
To all the non-Titans fans- our two and three TE offense was enough to make ya sick. This crystal clear attention to the outside guys is minimal (it is May) but it's not nothing. Hiring a former TE coach to be OC still concerns me but...so far so good.
And Smith certainly looks like he knows what needs to be done. OCs stand by the QB, behind the QB, maybe approach the OL. Whatever Smith was doing way down field or out wide waving his hands had to be good. Robiske was a former WR coach and he never left the center of the field. I'm not....it is sooo early, but it is great to see Smith "everywhere" and being involved. In some pics, the QB coach and Delanie are with him by the WRs. In other pics, Delanie looks like he's pressing them like a CB and pointing at their feet. Just pics but...yeah you three get all over those young guys.
To all the non-Titans fans- our two and three TE offense was enough to make ya sick. This crystal clear attention to the outside guys is minimal (it is May) but it's not nothing. Hiring a former TE coach to be OC still concerns me but...so far so good.
The biggest thing Davis/AJ owners can root for other than good health from Mariota is that the defense falls apart (sorry Bri). They were just involved in too many grind it out ugly fests where throwing the ball wasn’t a priority. 9-6 at Jax, 13-12 at Buf, 17-0 at NYG in the slop when you knew the Giants couldn’t score, second Jags game when they could hand it to Henry every play. Just not a lot of reason to throw in most of their games.
When they came out aggressive knowing they’d have to score points and Mariota was relatively healthy, Corey had some big games. At Houston, vs Philly, vs NE, at Dallas. Hopefully the matchups against the AFC West and NFC South offenses necessitate more scoring.
When they came out aggressive knowing they’d have to score points and Mariota was relatively healthy, Corey had some big games. At Houston, vs Philly, vs NE, at Dallas. Hopefully the matchups against the AFC West and NFC South offenses necessitate more scoring.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Itll be great when Mariota gets hurt again, TEN outs in a 6-10 season and grabs Fromm, a plug and play rookie QB, to lead them to greatness
matuski
Footballguy
Would you describe an arm that is unable to get him the ball as a "hurdle"?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
We could reference Hopkins as a guy who has produced with some very sad arms throwing him the ball
But again, as I referenced above, there are several WR1s who did not produce when their QB went down. I'm sure the list can be longer.
matuski
Footballguy
Yea, we know where I stand with MM.
I have no idea to look up such data, but I'd wager even the those teams with sad arms still lapped MM's WR production the last 4 years.
Having said that, Davis certainly isn't Hopkins.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
IMO, you’ve crystallized the distinction I draw between a garden-variety WR1 and an elite WR. The latter transcend their QB play (OBJ with sad-sack Manning, Evans with the revolving Winston / Fitz interception carousel, Hopkins pre-Watson, Adams with Brett freaking Hundley) while the former ... can’t.
It’s too soon to say whether Davis will ever become a reliable WR1, but I’m pretty confident that he’ll never be a truly elite receiver.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Do you put it all on the WR? What about the coaching staff role in whether a WR gets the ball?
It could be more "didn't" than it is "can't"
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Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Evans has racked up his numbers for Lovie Smith and Dirk Koetter. OBJ for Tom Coughlin, Ben McAdoo, and Pat Shurmur. If you threw a "least capable offensive minds of the 21st century NFL" reunion, four of these 5 guys would get invites.
I see a lot of parallels between Corey Davis and Kenyan Drake. They both have obvious star talent and it's easy to blame their lack of production on bad / ever-changing coaching staffs and philosophies. At the same time, everyone on an NFL staff coaches every game knowing his job is on the line - so, if multiple successive groups of people have failed to make these obviously talented players the focal point of their offenses even under those conditions, it's fair to wonder if there's a reason.
Really the coaching staff wasn’t wrong to not throw the ball a ton last year. Is your best plan for beating the Jags on the road to challenge Jalen Ramsey and that D line with Blaine Gabbert/broken Mariota dropping back and throwing the ball or to be conservative as hell and wait until Bortles does his thing? Same thing with Gabbert’s start against Houston, the second Jags game, the game against the Skins with Josh Johnson starting for them, the game against the Gmen in the rain and their sieve of an OL. They won all those games with that strategy. Of course against the Bills it bit them. I don’t think any of that reflects on Corey Davis and hopefully isn’t indicative of what will happen under different circumstances this year.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
2016 Hopkins was WR36 at 12.2 PPG in PPR and people were bailing on him all over the place.
2018 Corey Davis was WR37
Gandalf
Footballguy
Question for the salary cap folks out there. With a $200 cap and 3 WR/2 RB/1 FLEX starting lineup, 0.5 PPR, how long would you sign Davis for based on the following:wgoldsph said:
$2 for 1 year
$12 for 2 years
$17 for 3 years
$22 for 4 years
Trying to get a sense of his value and how confident people are in his talent both short and long term
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Not knowing any league details, I'd be comfortable with 2 for $12. But it would depend on things like what's the penalty for cutting him early and what sort of things could potentially allow you to extend him beyond and rules for re-signing beyond the contract years.
I'm comfortable with the 2/12 because he's cheap and if he has a good year this year, you still have him for one more. Flip side is if he has another so-so year you can get out from the contract in only 1 more year or cut him outright if the penalty is small or non-existent.
I'm also fine with 3/17 for similar reasons as long as you can afford a disappointing year and get out of the contract easily. If he has another disappointing year, I'd look to dump him.
Gandalf
Footballguy
If I’m reading this right I’m locking up someone of Davis’ talent as long as can for ~1/20th of my salary cap...
edit bad math- less than 3% of the yearly cap.
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Amused to Death
Footballguy
Last year he was borderline WR2/3 and now has 2nd round pick AJ Brown to contend with.
2% for 1 year - hey, who wouldn't want that? But I'd like to have him under contract beyond this year, which could be a big and then next year his price goes way up and you won't get him for any value.
6% for 2 years - great value and I could have a stud next year as well for tremendous value. But even if he under performs, I can hold him for another year and not take a great cap hit.
8.5% for 3 - Yeah, I still want him but now it may be risky in years 2 and 3 depending on how easily I can cut him. How big is the penalty?
11% for 4? So far he hasn't really been worth that cap hit (imho) but a lot depends on how easily I can dump the salary if years 1 and 2 are bad.
I was reading in wrong then in this case. I read those numbers as total value but I guess that wouldn’t make much sense. I’d be closer to your line of thinking then.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I love this title. Unlike most players who aim to player slower, Corey Davis aims to play faster.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I swear there was an article that said "Rodgers hopes to learn new offense"Gandalf said:
uh.... he better...
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Fun facts about Corey Davis' 2018 season:
19th in targets
7th in market share (Davis and Landry were the only wrs in the top 12 who were not also top 12 fantasy wrs)
I have a feeling Davis takes the leap this year and is a bonafide WR1. Even with a crappy qb.
19th in targets
7th in market share (Davis and Landry were the only wrs in the top 12 who were not also top 12 fantasy wrs)
I have a feeling Davis takes the leap this year and is a bonafide WR1. Even with a crappy qb.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
More from Dynasty Nerds:
If these stats arent slapping you in the face I dont know what will. I'm regretting considering selling him earlier this offseason and glad no one was buying
He just needs someone to throw him a decent ball. Hes wide open
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
That separation stat really jumps out because as I’ve posted before he faced a ton of really good to elite corners last year. The catch% is low but I’ve seen in a couple places that he had a really high number of his targets be uncatchable. Not a surprise with his qb play. He should be even more efficient in a higher volume offense this year.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I want to believe this year be different but blurbs like this from camp have me picturing another suppressed year due to poor QB play.
· Jun 11
In #Titans’ first full team period today, Mariota was truly terrible. Missed Davis right, missed Davis left, had a pick dropped, missed Sharpe badly. Other team period was all short stuff/ swing passes to backs. Don’t go nuts. But real throws in most real action were just awful.
· Jun 11
In #Titans’ first full team period today, Mariota was truly terrible. Missed Davis right, missed Davis left, had a pick dropped, missed Sharpe badly. Other team period was all short stuff/ swing passes to backs. Don’t go nuts. But real throws in most real action were just awful.
This is a snip- note four passes- that Mariota haters can jump on.
He showed awesome mobility on the screens that day and was almost perfect in the red zone.
The bit you snipped was new plays Smith put in. Smith started moving everyone around between plays and was behind Mariota a bit explaining. He was changing things and confusing Marcus. Per my friend, it looked like there was confusion about who is the first read and second if they change positions. Marcus was going with the location (right side WR) while Smith seemed to want it as the person (Davis) so Marcus was throwing late and rushed on these. There was a pause. Vrabel came over. Things clicked and he looked sharp in the red zone which sort of illustrated that things clicked. Tannehill came in and had the same probs then walked over to Smith and straightened things out. It seems like a new OC type issue to me. And again, just four passes, seven if you count Tannehill's.
Something else came up during OTAs with Marcus and Tannehill rolling and looking at Smith for confirmation (like this coach?)
I think you should give some understanding here to a guy learning Smith's nuances and changes. What he was hired to do was combine the best of the offenses Marcus knows and tweak them. Marcus has been previously asked to be a pocket QB while being a gifted athlete and to waste too much time on the TE. Smith is breaking four years of that and letting Marcus play the game as a QB should. No one seems to disagree that it's working. One thing a reporter noticed was the smiles, high fives, and end zone fun. He's young and thought that NFL teams were just all super serious but the reality is that the players are really starting to catch on to Smith's offense and enjoying it. Other reporters pointed out the same. There's something fun this year which is probably a real good sign.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Thanks for the feedback Bri, always appreciate your insight. It seems like Mariotta’s career has been overweighted with excuses and injuries. At some point you need to show it on the field consistently. Being his 5th year in the league I think the onus really shifts to him at this point. I hope he proves he belongs because he seems like a world class individual.
Faust
MVP
I always found his body control at the catch point to be excellent. He’s made several spectacular catches high pointing the ball and along the sideline. Catches against Raiders, Ravens, Steelers, Pats, Eagles come to mind easily. Now if this body control focus translates to getting quicker separation like Bri mentioned before then giddy up. More than anything it would help to have a full offseason/season to get timing with Mariota. He was hurt/limited almost all of his rookie year and then Mariota had his thing almost all of last year
I know I'm in the minority, but I think he's in for a big season. I have him as a WR3, but expect him to play more like a high end WR2.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
If QB play can be slightly above average Davis could put up some nice numbers. Big IF....
