The Frankman
Footballguy
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RB Matt Breida - Giants RB (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter mcintyre1
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
McKinnon only makes $900,000 a year now, IIRC. As someone who has Breida in dynasty, I wish they'd cut him now so he can find a landing spot rather than at the end of camp.
Right now the 49ers have five RBs: Mostert, Coleman, McKinnon, Breida, and Wilson. I'd guess they dress three and keep four. I'd keep checking in to see how McKinnon is holding up. Breida hit the top speed of any running back last year against the Browns, getting up to over 23 MPH on his eighty yard junket. Guy can play.
I think Breida is on the team unless someone makes a solid offer (4th rounder). He’s just a much better runner than Coleman. When they signed Coleman, a lot was made of his potential in the passing games which never developed. If McKinnon is healthy, that will be his role and Breida will be the back up to Mostert.
Too much was made of the fumbles last year. He had 2 against Atlanta (1 lost), which played a big part in them losing that game. He had another in mop up duty in the playoffs against Minnesota. That was a weird play though. Got tackled but ended up face up on a pile and defensive player was able to strip the ball since he wasn’t technically down. 4 lost fumbles in 381 carries. 5 YPC for his career and a solid receiver. 3 million pretty reasonable. I think Coleman is let go, not Breida.
Too much was made of the fumbles last year. He had 2 against Atlanta (1 lost), which played a big part in them losing that game. He had another in mop up duty in the playoffs against Minnesota. That was a weird play though. Got tackled but ended up face up on a pile and defensive player was able to strip the ball since he wasn’t technically down. 4 lost fumbles in 381 carries. 5 YPC for his career and a solid receiver. 3 million pretty reasonable. I think Coleman is let go, not Breida.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Breidas entire issue is they cant count on him to stay healthy. Consistently nagging injuries that cause of loss of both game time and practice reps.
rockaction
Footballguy
You're right about the reps in particular. Not tons of game time. He's got trick ankles. And right pectoral/shoulder.
Mostert missed more time with a broken arm in 2018. It's funny they call Breida small. He's 5'9", 195. BMI of 28.8.
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JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Now a Dolphin
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
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Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Schefter has it on Twitter, too. I'm happy with that, honestly. I like his chances to win the starting gig vs. that RB room, so it could take him out of RBBC. Maybe...
rockaction
Footballguy
That's great news for people that roster Breida, like me. I think he can win that job, too, though he'll certainly cede work to Howard.
rockaction
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with that move, though. They were about equal value before this. Breida should get a big uptick in value, though, because Miami has nothing at RB, really. Breida's breakaway run against Cleveland last year on Monday night was one of the top recorded MPH runs all year. They clocked him around 22 MPH. He can play. So can Edmonds. And how could you know unless you waited for after the draft, which isn't always possible.
Denver724
Footballguy
Agreed. At the time I figured Edmonds probably had a little more value. Now it probably goes the other way. I'm not much into cuffs, but I thoughts Edmonds looked really good last year when given a chance. He's definitely the #2 behind Drake.
jtd13
Footballguy
Love this as a dolphins fan, and for fantasy. I figure that Howard and Breida will be near a 50/50 split, but as the dolphins still won't be winning many games this season, my preference is Breida. The dolphins have also been pounding the OL this offseason and draft. It'll probably take some time for them to develop/gel, but that could help one of these guys really do well near the end of the season.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Good trade for all sides.
rockaction
Footballguy
The more I think about this, the happier I am. I just walked into a worthy timeshare because of an afterthought to a trade that made it go for me. Miami had absolutely nothing in their backfield before this. Breida can flat out play when he's not hurt. We'll see...I bet on the player and not the situation, now it's up to the player to come through. This should remind me of something before I draft CEH 1.01 in rookie drafts.
Bet the player. The player will tell you because the league will want him. Granted, it's a fifth, but Miami didn't stir a backfield soul in the draft with this likely in their back pocket.
Bet the player. The player will tell you because the league will want him. Granted, it's a fifth, but Miami didn't stir a backfield soul in the draft with this likely in their back pocket.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
Problem with Breida is everyone is going to assume he gets replaced after 2020. I mean he's a nice bye week filler it seems for 2020, but after that he can't be considered long term right? If he does something in that role with Tua leading the ship, I can't imagine someone paying up for Breida. Love the guy, love the fit, but it's not realistic to be a long term dynasty asset. He's a guy I want in PPR leagues, already own him in 3.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, you're right. My own exuberance in this thread is purely as a guy who likes to root for guys he likes on Sundays while his team plays fantasy and likely loses. i don't think he's a great dynasty asset and am more pulling for a player I believe should get a chance than any real hard-boiled fantasy self-interest. If he helps win a game (fantasy WAR!) or so, all the better. Sorry, I just like the trade for him. He's no longer fully buried behind other guys that never really caught much of a break, either.
And if you were in win-now mode and rostered him, then this is a fantasy boon for the year, potentially and maybe.
rockaction
Footballguy
I didn't think they'd extend him. Really, for dynasty purposes, the hope is that he goes off a bit and you can finagle a second-round pick for him or something like that. Because he's twenty-six at the end of the year with no concrete future. The Dolphins will likely draft a running draft in next year's draft.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Matt Breida ran like a man trying to prove he belonged in the league in 2018, even though his stats show he could be a Top 10 back when healthy. He know he's tough (constantly played on sprained ankles that he'd re-sprain game after game), can catch the ball and handle a lead back role. Definitely think he's talented enough to thrive wherever he goes if he leaves Miami, but if he stays he's on my late round RB list in redraft.
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rockaction
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Dolphins have no reason not to run him or howard into the ground this year with both on one year deals.
They're not even likely contenders, so they're not going to hold back because of a possible playoff run. They may even be trying to protect a rookie quarterback so they could be running a lot
Both of them have their one chance at a big contract. Both of them have flashed starting rb skills.
I know the conventional wisdom is that this will be a committee, but one of them could be a high end rb2 if they emerge as the lead back for some or all of the season. And of the two, breida has the slightly higher upside because of his speed and receiving ability, while Howard has the higher touchdown potential.
I wouldn't take before filling my starting lineup, but I would be happy to stash either or both in a 12 plus team league or start 2+ rb league as guys who have value even if things dont go great for them, especially if I went zero rb. In a small league or a start 1 rb, meh. I'll chase the higher upside first and not look at these guys until after all the higher upside backup RBs are gone.
They're not even likely contenders, so they're not going to hold back because of a possible playoff run. They may even be trying to protect a rookie quarterback so they could be running a lot
Both of them have their one chance at a big contract. Both of them have flashed starting rb skills.
I know the conventional wisdom is that this will be a committee, but one of them could be a high end rb2 if they emerge as the lead back for some or all of the season. And of the two, breida has the slightly higher upside because of his speed and receiving ability, while Howard has the higher touchdown potential.
I wouldn't take before filling my starting lineup, but I would be happy to stash either or both in a 12 plus team league or start 2+ rb league as guys who have value even if things dont go great for them, especially if I went zero rb. In a small league or a start 1 rb, meh. I'll chase the higher upside first and not look at these guys until after all the higher upside backup RBs are gone.
Love it, I have the same mentality (and Breida is one of my guys too). Winning an unlikely championship led by Dion Lewis in 17 was one of my favorite moments. Lynch another one of my guys I always drafted.
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acme
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Breida is the king of a weird stat. He's got the top three out of five finishes for runners in the past three years or so for runners when measuring yards before contact.
Player Year Yards Before Contact Avg.
1. Phillip Lindsay 2018 3.1
2. Aaron Jones 2018 2.5
3. Matt Breida 2018 2.5
4. Matt Breida 2019 2.4
5. Matt Breida 2017 2.3
Per PFF: Matt Breida has had the luxury of a top-five run-blocking offensive line per PFF grade since 2017, but he’s also outperformed expectations behind that group, putting up three of the top five single-season marks in the area by a running back over the past three seasons.
As for the other players, the Green Bay Packers‘ team run-blocking grade ranked just 23rd in the NFL in 2018. The Denver Broncos were the fifth-ranked team unit in 2018, but they were only 16th last season when Lindsay once again finished with high marks. Over the past three seasons, the Carolina Panthers haven’t finished higher than 19th as a team in run-blocking grade, and yet, McCaffrey stands out as one of the better running backs in the NFL in terms of finding yardage before contact on a play-by-play basis.
Yards before contact can be a running back stat — and it’s the running backs with elite speed and vision who lead the way.
Player Year Yards Before Contact Avg.
1. Phillip Lindsay 2018 3.1
2. Aaron Jones 2018 2.5
3. Matt Breida 2018 2.5
4. Matt Breida 2019 2.4
5. Matt Breida 2017 2.3
Per PFF: Matt Breida has had the luxury of a top-five run-blocking offensive line per PFF grade since 2017, but he’s also outperformed expectations behind that group, putting up three of the top five single-season marks in the area by a running back over the past three seasons.
As for the other players, the Green Bay Packers‘ team run-blocking grade ranked just 23rd in the NFL in 2018. The Denver Broncos were the fifth-ranked team unit in 2018, but they were only 16th last season when Lindsay once again finished with high marks. Over the past three seasons, the Carolina Panthers haven’t finished higher than 19th as a team in run-blocking grade, and yet, McCaffrey stands out as one of the better running backs in the NFL in terms of finding yardage before contact on a play-by-play basis.
Yards before contact can be a running back stat — and it’s the running backs with elite speed and vision who lead the way.
rockaction
Footballguy
Or, fire up your Breidas.
jtd13
Footballguy
I'm not sure the Miami offense is going to use him enough for him to be a big fantasy guy if he does hold up. I want him to be the guy, but feel like there's going to be a lot of complaining about Howard's workload over the season.
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rockaction
Footballguy
This is the most likely scenario, sure, and needs to be noted. But if Breida can go outrun Howard, who knows? It's not like the staff is married to Howard.
jtd13
Footballguy
It's true they are not married to either guy. I'm more saying it as a dolphins fan and fantasy guy who would rather see Breida playing over Howard in both scenarios. But it just feels like one of those scenarios where the plodding RB will get 250 carries for 900 yards, and we complain about Breida being underutilized all season.
I was looking at Gailey's RB usage in the past. The most recent season was 2016, so maybe not that relevant, but he has a history of using a grinder and a pass-catching back in defined roles. Probably the closest example to 2020 Miami is 2015 NYJ with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. Ivory averaged 16.5 carries and 2.5 targets a game that year, while Powell averaged 6.4 carries and 5.7 targets per game.
I think (but am not sure) that Breida is better than Powell, but Ivory seems like about as good of a comp as you can find for Howard. So those usage stats seem like a decent starting point to me. The 2015 Jets went 10-6, so maybe with the dolphins likely to be losing more than that, the usage shifts more to the pass-catcher/ smaller back.
Nah you are right unlike on Mixon
Breida is the biggest injury guarantee in football and this offense is going to pass a lot besides at the goal line/short yardage when Howard swoops in
Breida is talented enough to be an elite COP back somewhere but that role doesn't get fantasy relevance in every place--Miami is not one of those places
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rockaction
Footballguy
Breida's been hurt less than Mostert. Breida hasn't missed that many games, and when he has, it's been ankle tweaks.
If he takes care of his ankle issues, he's no less durable than many other RBs.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Breida is an iron man. I don't think any other player has played through more injuries than him in the past 5ish years.
Fear The Turtle
Footballguy
I agree that he's tough as nails, it's just that his body keeps betraying him, which results in him not being a reliable fantasy option.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
True they are better at RB, but still not very exciting. Perhaps Breida could be if he could stay on the field.
