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Swing For the Fences: 5 Deep Redraft PPR WR Sleepers (1 Viewer)

DawnBTVS

DawnBTVS

Footballguy
A lot of times we're all hitting the late rounds wondering which WRs to target whether they be safer floors or potentially high ceilings. These are my home run/swing for the fences sleepers.

  1. Cole Beasley - Dallas Cowboys (ADP - 171, 60th WR). Has steadily seen his role grow in Dallas' system and has the trust of Dak Prescott. Blossomed from 37 catches to 52 catches to 75 catches last year out of 98 targets. Probably won't see last year's numbers but should still be in line for 60-65 catches. Ryan Switzer is his only serious competition role wise and Beasley's knowledge of the system should keep him good to go.
  2. Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks (ADP - 175, 62nd WR). Struggled last year but still had almost 600 yards receiving and an explosive 14.7 YPR. Won't be an elite option but if Doug Baldwin or Jimmy Graham get injured, his value rockets up. Flashes an ability to potentially hit 700+ yards receiving if things break right around him.
  3. Laquon Treadwell - Minnesota Vikings (ADP - 232, 77th WR). Was a rookie last year but people forget he was a 1st Round pick. Should make a massive jump in Year 2 and is a very sneaky play as a guy who has a chance to be a solid WR2 and get 850+ yards receiving. Michael Floyd may be on the way out and Adam Thielen has taken some of the rub off Treadwell but there's a reason that Mike Zimmer took this guy in the 1st Round and it wasn't to ride the bench.
  4. Sterling Shepard - New York Giants (ADP - 149, 56th WR). Kind of getting forgotten due to the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram but Eli Manning throws the ball a lot and Shepard flashed as a rookie with 65 catches. He's a bit more of a risky selection but if injuries hit and/or he excels against single coverage, he has a sneaky shot at 700-750 yards I think.
  5. Marvin Jones - Detroit Lions (ADP - 128, 49th WR). Disappointed some owners yet still put up 930 yards receiving. The lack of touchdowns hurt but if he can put up similar yardage and get 6-8 TDs, he'll make a lot of fantasy owners happy. Considering how pass happy Detroit and Stafford can get, I don't see anything to suggest under 800 yards receiving.
 
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Here's a few late round WRs that I think could really pay off:

John Brown - should be recovered this season and showed early play making ability

Kenny Britt - surprisingly he's only a year older than Terrell Pryor and should step into Pryor's role as the top target in the passing game.

Robert Woods - Kenny Britt put up 1,000 yards last season for the Rams and Woods could emerge as the best option with the rest of the depth chart being extremely young

Breshad Perriman - ready to breakout and Maclin and Wallace shouldn't stand in his way if the first round talent is there

Zay Jones - Watkins has had his issues with health so Jones could become the top option by default and I like his game

 
DawnBTVS said:
A lot of times we're all hitting the late rounds wondering which WRs to target whether they be safer floors or potentially high ceilings. These are my home run/swing for the fences sleepers.

  1. Cole Beasley - Dallas Cowboys (ADP - 171, 60th WR). Has steadily seen his role grow in Dallas' system and has the trust of Dak Prescott. Blossomed from 37 catches to 52 catches to 75 catches last year out of 98 targets. Probably won't see last year's numbers but should still be in line for 60-65 catches. Ryan Switzer is his only serious competition role wise and Beasley's knowledge of the system should keep him good to go.
  2. Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks (ADP - 175, 62nd WR). Struggled last year but still had almost 600 yards receiving and an explosive 14.7 YPR. Won't be an elite option but if Doug Baldwin or Jimmy Graham get injured, his value rockets up. Flashes an ability to potentially hit 700+ yards receiving if things break right around him.
  3. Laquon Treadwell - Minnesota Vikings (ADP - 232, 77th WR). Was a rookie last year but people forget he was a 1st Round pick. Should make a massive jump in Year 2 and is a very sneaky play as a guy who has a chance to be a solid WR2 and get 850+ yards receiving. Michael Floyd may be on the way out and Adam Thielen has taken some of the rub off Treadwell but there's a reason that Mike Zimmer took this guy in the 1st Round and it wasn't to ride the bench.
  4. Sterling Shepard - New York Giants (ADP - 149, 56th WR). Kind of getting forgotten due to the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram but Eli Manning throws the ball a lot and Shepard flashed as a rookie with 65 catches. He's a bit more of a risky selection but if injuries hit and/or he excels against single coverage, he has a sneaky shot at 700-750 yards I think.
  5. Marvin Jones - Detroit Lions (ADP - 128, 49th WR). Disappointed some owners yet still put up 930 yards receiving. The lack of touchdowns hurt but if he can put up similar yardage and get 6-8 TDs, he'll make a lot of fantasy owners happy. Considering how pass happy Detroit and Stafford can get, I don't see anything to suggest under 800 yards receiving.
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I really don't like any of those guys this year.  The Treadwell pick is especially egregious 

 
Britt, John Brown, Cole (ppr) are all good bets. Marvin is fine where he is being drafted. How's Lockets health?

 
DawnBTVS said:
A lot of times we're all hitting the late rounds wondering which WRs to target whether they be safer floors or potentially high ceilings. These are my home run/swing for the fences sleepers.

  1. Cole Beasley - Dallas Cowboys (ADP - 171, 60th WR). Has steadily seen his role grow in Dallas' system and has the trust of Dak Prescott. Blossomed from 37 catches to 52 catches to 75 catches last year out of 98 targets. Probably won't see last year's numbers but should still be in line for 60-65 catches. Ryan Switzer is his only serious competition role wise and Beasley's knowledge of the system should keep him good to go.
  2. Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks (ADP - 175, 62nd WR). Struggled last year but still had almost 600 yards receiving and an explosive 14.7 YPR. Won't be an elite option but if Doug Baldwin or Jimmy Graham get injured, his value rockets up. Flashes an ability to potentially hit 700+ yards receiving if things break right around him.
  3. Laquon Treadwell - Minnesota Vikings (ADP - 232, 77th WR). Was a rookie last year but people forget he was a 1st Round pick. Should make a massive jump in Year 2 and is a very sneaky play as a guy who has a chance to be a solid WR2 and get 850+ yards receiving. Michael Floyd may be on the way out and Adam Thielen has taken some of the rub off Treadwell but there's a reason that Mike Zimmer took this guy in the 1st Round and it wasn't to ride the bench.
  4. Sterling Shepard - New York Giants (ADP - 149, 56th WR). Kind of getting forgotten due to the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram but Eli Manning throws the ball a lot and Shepard flashed as a rookie with 65 catches. He's a bit more of a risky selection but if injuries hit and/or he excels against single coverage, he has a sneaky shot at 700-750 yards I think.
  5. Marvin Jones - Detroit Lions (ADP - 128, 49th WR). Disappointed some owners yet still put up 930 yards receiving. The lack of touchdowns hurt but if he can put up similar yardage and get 6-8 TDs, he'll make a lot of fantasy owners happy. Considering how pass happy Detroit and Stafford can get, I don't see anything to suggest under 800 yards receiving.
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I like Jones the best of this group, followed by Shepard, Lockett, Beasley, and Treadwell.

I would take a chance with Jones and Shepard, but I would pass on Lockett, Beasley and Treadwell.  IMO there isn't enough of a pie for Lockett to excel give he will be the #3 in the pecking order.  Beasley is a guy you just don't draft.  His ceiling is barely a WR3, and I have learned that if the upside isn't a fantasy starter, you should just pass since it is a waste of draft resources.  Treadwell hasn't done anything (I would like to know what makes you believe that he will make a massive jump in year 2), and competes with Diggs, Rudolph and Thielen for targets in an offense that leans towards the run.  I wouldn't touch Treadwell with a ten foot pole this year, even at his ADP. 

 
I would add these 3 as well:

Tyrell Williams (10.02) - Played well last year with Rivers. With Mike Williams already banged up, Williams has a good chance to see a bunch of targets opposite of Keenan Allen. For where he is going, worth a gamble as a WR4/5.

Josh Doctson (12.11) - Gone are Garcon and Jackson from last season. Was seen as the best WR in last year's draft by many. If he stays healthy, I could see him putting up WR3 in an offense that loves to through the ball.

Tavon Austin (14.07) - Could be Sean McVay's new Jamison Crowder. Worth a flier at the back end of your draft. Who else is going to catch passes from Goff?

 
MattFancy said:
I would add these 3 as well:

Tyrell Williams (10.02) - Played well last year with Rivers. With Mike Williams already banged up, Williams has a good chance to see a bunch of targets opposite of Keenan Allen. For where he is going, worth a gamble as a WR4/5.

Josh Doctson (12.11) - Gone are Garcon and Jackson from last season. Was seen as the best WR in last year's draft by many. If he stays healthy, I could see him putting up WR3 in an offense that loves to through the ball.

Tavon Austin (14.07) - Could be Sean McVay's new Jamison Crowder. Worth a flier at the back end of your draft. Who else is going to catch passes from Goff?
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All of these are great options, but I suspect that Tyrell Williams' ADP will rise to maybe the 8th round given that Williams is very unlikely to make a big impact this year.

 
fightingillini said:
I like Jones the best of this group, followed by Shepard, Lockett, Beasley, and Treadwell.

I would take a chance with Jones and Shepard, but I would pass on Lockett, Beasley and Treadwell.  IMO there isn't enough of a pie for Lockett to excel give he will be the #3 in the pecking order.  Beasley is a guy you just don't draft.  His ceiling is barely a WR3, and I have learned that if the upside isn't a fantasy starter, you should just pass since it is a waste of draft resources.  Treadwell hasn't done anything (I would like to know what makes you believe that he will make a massive jump in year 2), and competes with Diggs, Rudolph and Thielen for targets in an offense that leans towards the run.  I wouldn't touch Treadwell with a ten foot pole this year, even at his ADP. 
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Treadwell is more about his ADP but...

  • He was a rookie last year and a 1st Round pick by the current coaching staff. That carries weight and just because he struggled as a rookie doesn't mean he won't improve at all in Year 2. IMO, Thielen took advantage of Treadwell's lack of performance/only playing 11 games and I don't think he comes close to last year's numbers.
  • Stefon Diggs is the clear cut #1. I think Treadwell has a better chance to potentially be the WR2 there than Thielen coming up with 900+ yards receiving again.
  • Vikings ran the ball 380 times last year against 588 pass attempts. I have a feeling, even with Dalvin Cook, that they'll be playing from behind or in tighter games so I don't completely buy that they'll be a run first offense (despite that being their ideal goal).
  • He has the size to be a weapon and should see 1-1 looks with Diggs and Rudolph seeing the majority of opposing double teams. Year 2 is when players usually tend to break out and for a guy who is the 77th WR being taken... where's the harm? Worst case, he's a cut. Best case, he winds up around WR2 maybe WR3 performance.
Also this is reflecting DEEP Sleepers. I'm not expecting any of these guys to put up WR1 numbers by year's end but in a 12 Team League all the players I listed are going as WR5 and WR6 usually. You, yourself said that Beasley's ceiling is a WR3 and the whole point of value is getting players who outperform their ADP/Position Rank.

Also depending on FLEX, WR3s are legit starting options in 12/14 Team Leagues.

 
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I don't know if he's considered a "swing for the fences" player but I like Rishard Matthews in this neighborhood. He was quietly WR18 in total points (WR21 in avg/PPG) in the league I owned him last year but looks like he's currently going 11th round as WR71 or so (per MFL).

 
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DawnBTVS said:
Treadwell is more about his ADP but...

  • He was a rookie last year and a 1st Round pick by the current coaching staff. That carries weight and just because he struggled as a rookie doesn't mean he won't improve at all in Year 2. IMO, Thielen took advantage of Treadwell's lack of performance/only playing 11 games and I don't think he comes close to last year's numbers.
  • Stefon Diggs is the clear cut #1. I think Treadwell has a better chance to potentially be the WR2 there than Thielen coming up with 900+ yards receiving again.
  • Vikings ran the ball 380 times last year against 588 pass attempts. I have a feeling, even with Dalvin Cook, that they'll be playing from behind or in tighter games so I don't completely buy that they'll be a run first offense (despite that being their ideal goal).
  • He has the size to be a weapon and should see 1-1 looks with Diggs and Rudolph seeing the majority of opposing double teams. Year 2 is when players usually tend to break out and for a guy who is the 77th WR being taken... where's the harm?
Also this is reflecting DEEP Sleepers. I'm not expecting any of these guys to put up WR1 numbers by year's end but in a 12 Team League: Beasley, Lockett, and Treadwell are going as WRs 5 and 6 usually. You, yourself said that Beasley's ceiling is a WR3 and the whole point of value is getting players who outperform their ADP/Position Rank.
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I understand that you're talking deep sleepers.

I want more upside than "barely a WR3".  Marvin Jones and Shepard have WR2 upside if the cards fall right.  Same with Tavon Austin or Josh Dotcson (which MattFancy suggested).  So I will let someone else draft Beasley.  Sure he can outperform his draft slot, but I am greedier than that! 

I think you underestimating Thielen by quite a bit.  He's a decent WR and Bradford loves throwing to him.

So Treadwell has to 1) show that he can get on the field, 2) learn the playbook and learn to get open in the NFL, 3) earn rapport with Bradford, 4) earn enough targets and/or 5) MIN passing pie needs to increase significantly for Treadwell to have a meaningful fantasy impact.  I would rather gamble on other players.   

 
These guys are all going 10th round or later per FBG PPR

John Brown 

Cameron Meredith

Quincy Enunwa (ppr)

Kevin White 

Will Fuller

 
One thing that could help vault Beasley is if Witten finally falls off, which I doubt 'cause the guy is made out of chiseled granite health wise but Witten's YPR has fallen to 9.3 and 9.8 the past couple seasons. Coupled that with Terrance Williams' numbers falling off compared to 2015 and I think Beasley has an outside chance to improve on last year.

Even with Dallas running the ball a ton and Dez's missing 3 games, Beasley still finished WR33 in a typical PPR league (startable in any 12-14 Team 3 WR League). He has one of the safest floors as a potential WR3 with upside to hit WR2 level if an injury to Dez or Witten strikes IMO.

Worth noting is that Beasley had at least 50 yards receiving in every game but one (still 5 catches for 33 yards) Week 1 - 11 last year before dealing with hamstring tendinitis in the 2nd half of the season. So it's not like he didn't have a rapport going with Dak.

 
John Brown is such a huge value right now. If he doesn't have any health related concerns left over from his issues last year I fully expect him to be top 20. I think once preseason games start his adp will really jump up. People are forgetting how high he was being drafted last season before the health issues.

 
Cameron Meredith and Kevin White are great late round options.  I admit they have pretty low floors but that's why they're available late. What they offer everyone else is the ability to put up low end WR1 numbers. 

 
I guess maybe I have a different definition of "deep sleeper" than some of you guys. Beasley, Shepard, Jones, Brown, Britt, Austin, Meredith, Williams, and Matthews have already ranked in the Top 40 receivers (some way better than that) and Enunwa just missed the Top 40.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I guess maybe I have a different definition of "deep sleeper" than some of you guys. Beasley, Shepard, Jones, Brown, Britt, Austin, Meredith, Williams, and Matthews have already ranked in the Top 40 receivers (some way better than that) and Enunwa just missed the Top 40.
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So you're talking undrafted guys then?

 
Anarchy99 said:
I guess maybe I have a different definition of "deep sleeper" than some of you guys. Beasley, Shepard, Jones, Brown, Britt, Austin, Meredith, Williams, and Matthews have already ranked in the Top 40 receivers (some way better than that) and Enunwa just missed the Top 40.
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Admittedly, the name I threw out probably belongs in a value discussion more than a deep sleeper/SFTF discussion.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I guess maybe I have a different definition of "deep sleeper" than some of you guys. Beasley, Shepard, Jones, Brown, Britt, Austin, Meredith, Williams, and Matthews have already ranked in the Top 40 receivers (some way better than that) and Enunwa just missed the Top 40.
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My definition is 10th round or later

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Here's a few late round WRs that I think could really pay off:

John Brown - should be recovered this season and showed early play making ability

Kenny Britt - surprisingly he's only a year older than Terrell Pryor and should step into Pryor's role as the top target in the passing game.

Robert Woods - Kenny Britt put up 1,000 yards last season for the Rams and Woods could emerge as the best option with the rest of the depth chart being extremely young

Breshad Perriman - ready to breakout and Maclin and Wallace shouldn't stand in his way if the first round talent is there

Zay Jones - Watkins has had his issues with health so Jones could become the top option by default and I like his game
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This!

 
mcd said:
John Brown is such a huge value right now. If he doesn't have any health related concerns left over from his issues last year I fully expect him to be top 20. I think once preseason games start his adp will really jump up. People are forgetting how high he was being drafted last season before the health issues.
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top 20 might be a stretch, but I do think he's capable of it, which makes him a great buy at his current ADP.

 
I just can't see a plausible path to value for Treadwell barring multiple injuries in that passing game so i don't think he's a sleeper in any real sense. He's clearly behind Diggs and Thielen and he's also behind Rudolph in terms of targets. So as it stands he's the #4 option in a low octane passing game - a lot has to happen for that to mean anythign in fantasy. I'm not even sure that he's a better receiver than Bucky Hodges to be honest.

His draft pedigree is the only reason to have any faith but the Vikings may have just made a bad pick.

 
I'll throw out 4.

Paul Richardson: Seahawks- Injuries have hurt him but he is now healthy and he can turn into a red zone matchup nightmare for teams. Super athletic.

Malachi Dupre: Green Bay Packers- Aaron loves to throw deep and he has speed and size. If any injuries to Nelson, Adams or Cobb and he will be able to show off his stuff. Without the aid of an injury no need to draft him except in Dynasty but should be on speed dial.

Kenny Golladay: Detroit Lions-Another big and fast guy. I could see him as a junior version of Calvin Johnson down the road. 

Curtis Samuel: Carolina Panthers- OMG While he is a receiver he is more of a tweener, Can you imagine what defenses will face if both McCaffrey and him line up in the backfield together.

 
Tyrell Williams and John Brown really jump out at me as good values at the moment.  Remember that Brown was a 1000 yard receiver in 2015 when Michael Floyd was still a legit WR2.  And Williams feels like one of those toolsy finds that people will be slow to warm up to because is his low NFL draft pedigree, but could be this eras Brandon Marshall.

A guy not mentioned yet: Taylor Gabriel

630 YFS/7 TD's in 13 games after being picked up off WW right before the season.

 
Marquise Lee - he quietly put up good numbers down the stretch last year, and is one to watch this summer, especially if Robinson and/or Hurns struggle again. 

 
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beerbuff said:
I'll throw out 4.

Paul Richardson: Seahawks- Injuries have hurt him but he is now healthy and he can turn into a red zone matchup nightmare for teams. Super athletic.
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I'm wholly biased because I've held Paul Richardson from Day 1, but if he's healthy, he's the best Seattle WR; also feeding my optimism is that I think Russell Wilson will develop into a 4500-5000 yard passer for the long haul.

 
Saints WR2

I'm keeping a close eye on Willie Snead. He's got talent, and his situation is ++.  Personally, Brandon Coleman is holding down the last position on my roster ('cause he's a freebie, and Snead is not).

 
Mister CIA said:
I'm wholly biased because I've held Paul Richardson from Day 1, but if he's healthy, he's the best Seattle WR; also feeding my optimism is that I think Russell Wilson will develop into a 4500-5000 yard passer for the long haul.




 
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:shock: . I like the bold take here, but I think you are selling Doug short.

I know he has been mentioned, but Robert Woods has been a cheap target for me this offseason. I think his skill is underratted, and there should be a lot of targets available. Depending on how deep we are talking, I could see Pharaoh Cooper winning the slot job over Tavon Austin with the new coaching staff and providing some value. 

Robby Anderson, especially if Petty wins the starting QB job. 

Kamar Aiken has 2 highly drafted but so far underperforming guys between him and a #2 target share from Andrew Luck. 

Call me crazy, but I still think Will Fuller is good at football, drops and all. I could see him getting consistent targets and providing WR3/4 value. 

 
Here are mine:

Marqise Lee - Arguably the best receiver in Jacksonville last year, had some real good games down the stretch. Still a higher draft pick than Robinson, still has WR1 traits. If Bortles has to chuck it, could be a bargain.

Tyler Boyd (PPR) - Excellent tactician and route runner, super competitive. Green & Eifert take all the attention, Ross has the deep threat but is still a rookie. Dalton could be finding Boyd a lot as a chain mover, TD upside is limited though.

Malcolm Mitchell - Mitchell had some great games last year as a rookie, and he's on the Patriots with Brady throwing the ball in what could be a repeat of 2007 stats-wise. Obviously there are a lot of targets here, but outside of Edelman, Cooks, and Gronk, Mitchell is the younger upside guy over Hogan and Amendola.

Kenny Golladay - I think the Lions defense is going to be pitiful, forcing Stafford to throw a lot and have a career year. Golladay may be the 3rd option in a lot of 3-WR sets throughout the season. He is also immensely talented, 6'4" with plenty of speed and a huge redzone threat.

Marquise Goodwin - Probably for best ball leagues and not a reliable start b/c of Hoyer as the QB, but this could be a Taylor Gabriel-lite. This team is going to have to throw a lot and outside of Garcon, we have Kerley... Kittle as a rookie TE... and I guess Joe Williams out of the backfield? Big vertical deep threat but could do damage on quick screens too.

 
DawnBTVS said:
A lot of times we're all hitting the late rounds wondering which WRs to target whether they be safer floors or potentially high ceilings. These are my home run/swing for the fences sleepers.

  1. Cole Beasley - Dallas Cowboys (ADP - 171, 60th WR). Has steadily seen his role grow in Dallas' system and has the trust of Dak Prescott. Blossomed from 37 catches to 52 catches to 75 catches last year out of 98 targets. Probably won't see last year's numbers but should still be in line for 60-65 catches. Ryan Switzer is his only serious competition role wise and Beasley's knowledge of the system should keep him good to go.
  2. Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks (ADP - 175, 62nd WR). Struggled last year but still had almost 600 yards receiving and an explosive 14.7 YPR. Won't be an elite option but if Doug Baldwin or Jimmy Graham get injured, his value rockets up. Flashes an ability to potentially hit 700+ yards receiving if things break right around him.
  3. Laquon Treadwell - Minnesota Vikings (ADP - 232, 77th WR). Was a rookie last year but people forget he was a 1st Round pick. Should make a massive jump in Year 2 and is a very sneaky play as a guy who has a chance to be a solid WR2 and get 850+ yards receiving. Michael Floyd may be on the way out and Adam Thielen has taken some of the rub off Treadwell but there's a reason that Mike Zimmer took this guy in the 1st Round and it wasn't to ride the bench.
  4. Sterling Shepard - New York Giants (ADP - 149, 56th WR). Kind of getting forgotten due to the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram but Eli Manning throws the ball a lot and Shepard flashed as a rookie with 65 catches. He's a bit more of a risky selection but if injuries hit and/or he excels against single coverage, he has a sneaky shot at 700-750 yards I think.
  5. Marvin Jones - Detroit Lions (ADP - 128, 49th WR). Disappointed some owners yet still put up 930 yards receiving. The lack of touchdowns hurt but if he can put up similar yardage and get 6-8 TDs, he'll make a lot of fantasy owners happy. Considering how pass happy Detroit and Stafford can get, I don't see anything to suggest under 800 yards receiving.
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Some of these guys aren't really HR swings.  Cole is a safe solid week to week floor guy for PPR. You even said yourself his numbers are likely to go down. He was WR32 in PPR last year. How is that a HR swing? 

 Unless you think Brandon Marshall is totally cooked and Evan Engram won't play at all from the slot this year, I can't see how Sheppard getting 105 targets again, yet alone significantly improving on that number. 

 
jtd13 said:
Call me crazy, but I still think Will Fuller is good at football, drops and all. I could see him getting consistent targets and providing WR3/4 value. 
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He was one of my guys and I'll take it one step further, I think he has legit WR2 upside this year.  

 
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HR swings in the sense that they should drastically improve on their current ADPs/Position Ranks with potential (mostly injuries to teammates) to provide WR2 numbers if everything aligns just right.

For 2 guys (Beasley and Shepard) who were WR3s last year, them going as WR5 or WR6 is crazy. If you're drafting in the late rounds looking for a potential WR2 or WR3, those guys should jump off the page at you.

As for the Giants, it's more a matchup thing with regards to Shepard. As athletic as Engram is, he's also a rookie coming into a situation where he'll need to earn Eli's trust at TE so he's not a sure thing to put up the expected numbers just yet. Also Victor Cruz is no longer on the roster and Cruz had 39 catches last year so Shepard is arguably a lock for the Slot WR role this season.

 
DawnBTVS said:
HR swings in the sense that they should drastically improve on their current ADPs/Position Ranks with potential (mostly injuries to teammates) to provide WR2 numbers if everything aligns just right.

For 2 guys (Beasley and Shepard) who were WR3s last year, them going as WR5 or WR6 is crazy. If you're drafting in the late rounds looking for a potential WR2 or WR3, those guys should jump off the page at you.

As for the Giants, it's more a matchup thing with regards to Shepard. As athletic as Engram is, he's also a rookie coming into a situation where he'll need to earn Eli's trust at TE so he's not a sure thing to put up the expected numbers just yet. Also Victor Cruz is no longer on the roster and Cruz had 39 catches last year so Shepard is arguably a lock for the Slot WR role this season.
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Beasley, I do get. He's a nice solid safe PPR play. With Shepard, you think Marshall gets less targets than Cruz?

 
Don't like Beasley at all, mainly because I'm a fan of the rookie Switzer.

Would rather take Curtis Samuel. In fact I may like him more than Kenny Golladay because the path to success is easier fantasy-wise.

 
jtd13 said:
Call me crazy, but I still think Will Fuller is good at football, drops and all. I could see him getting consistent targets and providing WR3/4 value. 
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I'd go just the opposite.  I think he'll finally end up demoted because of his hands.  It does no good to get open if you can't catch.  I well remember Limas Sweed - I never saw a guy who could get so wide open and then drop easy passes.  I'm not saying Fuller is quite at Sweed stone hands level, but there comes a time when guys who can't catch just become too big of a liability, not to mention losing the QB's trust.  And there is a guy on the roster who catches much much better (but doesn't have Fuller's speed) just waiting his chance.

 
Bronco Billy said:
I'd go just the opposite.  I think he'll finally end up demoted because of his hands.  It does no good to get open if you can't catch.  I well remember Limas Sweed - I never saw a guy who could get so wide open and then drop easy passes.  I'm not saying Fuller is quite at Sweed stone hands level, but there comes a time when guys who can't catch just become too big of a liability, not to mention losing the QB's trust.  And there is a guy on the roster who catches much much better (but doesn't have Fuller's speed) just waiting his chance.
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Are you talking about Braxton Miller? I like Miller and he's dirt cheap. 

 
Bronco Billy said:
Nope, I'm talking about Jaelen Strong.  I see Miller as a slot guy, not an outside threat.

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Yep. I just thought you were talking about Houston WRs in general. 

I'm not that high on Strong. 28 career catches in 18 games (with 3 starts according to pro football reference). Could be a third year break out though. Interested to hear your opinion on why you like him. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Beasley, I do get. He's a nice solid safe PPR play. With Shepard, you think Marshall gets less targets than Cruz?
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It's more a breakdown of roles. Think less a 1-1 comparison and more a team wide range.

ODB had 169 targets last year and I think that comes down a little bit so Marshall probably sees around 120-130 targets. Also as I said, Victor Cruz is gone and he saw 72 targets alone so most of that should go to Shepard who'll be replacing him in the Slot.

The TEs combined for 113 targets. Donnell & Adams had 43 between them. If Engram is who some people expect him to be, I don't think he'll be commanding 113 targets so some of those will be split up between Marshall and Shepard. I also don't see the backup TEs getting that number of targets this year.

I can see Shepard winding up around 90-105 targets again this year between no Cruz, a TE target who probably won't command 113 targets by himself, and an offense that will remain more pass focused. Just giving the 72 and say 20 from the backup TEs to Shepard gets him to a fairly reasonable 92 targets.

 
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DawnBTVS said:
It's more a breakdown of roles. Think less a 1-1 comparison and more a team wide range.

ODB had 169 targets last year and I think that comes down a little bit so Marshall probably sees around 120-130 targets. Also as I said, Victor Cruz is gone and he saw 72 targets alone so most of that should go to Shepard who'll be replacing him in the Slot.

The TEs combined for 113 targets. Donnell & Adams had 43 between them. If Engram is who some people expect him to be, I don't think he'll be commanding 113 targets so some of those will be split up between Marshall and Shepard. I also don't see the backup TEs getting that number of targets this year.

I can see Shepard winding up around 90-105 targets again this year between no Cruz, a TE target who probably won't command 113 targets by himself, and an offense that will remain more pass focused.
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Victor Cruz was in the slot on 2.9% of the 3 and 4 WR sets the Giants ran last year which was 138th lowest among NFL WRs. He was about as exclusively an outside WR as it gets. Shepard was in the slot 74% of the time, highest in the NFL.

 
of all those listed to this point, my favorites would be john brown, kenny britt, and cameron meredith, as i see those three having the highest potential ceiling.  john brown is far and away my favorite although, as previously mentioned, i'm concerned he'll climb up draft boards prior to my redraft date.

 
Borden said:
Meh. Everything has value at the right price. 
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Sure, but opportunity cost comes into play. Taking Braxton Miller or Jalen Strong or Will Fuller or even Hopkins (who I am down on, but I understand if someone likes him) means you aren't taking someone else. Rosters aren't limitless. I'd much much rather gamble on 2nd, 3rd, 4th, receivers on good offenses. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Sure, but opportunity cost comes into play. Taking Braxton Miller or Jalen Strong or Will Fuller or even Hopkins (who I am down on, but I understand if someone likes him) means you aren't taking someone else. Rosters aren't limitless. I'd much much rather gamble on 2nd, 3rd, 4th, receivers on good offenses. 
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Sure but for Miller he's WR93 and 273 Overall according to Fantasy Pros PPR ADP. All he costs is a roster spot and even that might not be needed as you could probably pick him up off of the WW. Fuller is a bit more "expensive" and Strong is after Miller.

Saying "don't take X teams players" is usually a bad call. At one point it was the Vikings WRs or Patriots RBs or the Browns any position or whatever example from years past you choose. For the Texans this year, there's no reason to think the offense won't take a step forward. Savage had a better QB Rating than Brock last year. 80.9 to 72.2. Add in that Watson could be better than Savage still and that Fuller, Miller and Strong all have another year of experience and there's no reason not to think this offense will get better.

Obviously, I'm not saying to draft all he Texans WRs. However, every year startable WRs come out of nowhere. Volume is definitely a concern for sure. For me the pick is Miller. I think Fuller only needs to do enough to stretch and the keep the defense semi-honest. Strong, I'm just not bought into as a talent yet. Nuk will receive the extra defensive attention. Millers been designated as the slot receiver and the Texans brought in Wes Welker as coach, in addition to their existing WR coach.  An athletic, young 2nd year receiver getting coaching from one of the greatest players ever of his position (slot receiver) on an offense that should improve and you can get him off the WW after the draft.

 
Borden said:
Sure but for Miller he's WR93 and 273 Overall according to Fantasy Pros PPR ADP. All he costs is a roster spot and even that might not be needed as you could probably pick him up off of the WW. Fuller is a bit more "expensive" and Strong is after Miller.

Saying "don't take X teams players" is usually a bad call. At one point it was the Vikings WRs or Patriots RBs or the Browns any position or whatever example from years past you choose. For the Texans this year, there's no reason to think the offense won't take a step forward. Savage had a better QB Rating than Brock last year. 80.9 to 72.2. Add in that Watson could be better than Savage still and that Fuller, Miller and Strong all have another year of experience and there's no reason not to think this offense will get better.

Obviously, I'm not saying to draft all he Texans WRs. However, every year startable WRs come out of nowhere. Volume is definitely a concern for sure. For me the pick is Miller. I think Fuller only needs to do enough to stretch and the keep the defense semi-honest. Strong, I'm just not bought into as a talent yet. Nuk will receive the extra defensive attention. Millers been designated as the slot receiver and the Texans brought in Wes Welker as coach, in addition to their existing WR coach.  An athletic, young 2nd year receiver getting coaching from one of the greatest players ever of his position (slot receiver) on an offense that should improve and you can get him off the WW after the draft.
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I realize everyone has their price and that sometimes bad situations end up better than we expected. If I am taking a WR as late as 273 overall, I will go with Aiken (has had flashes of good play, 3rd WR on a prolific offense) or Robby Anderson (flashes of good play, could be the #1 WR on his team) or Paul Richardson (showed some flashes, plays on a good offense). I just don't see much upside investing in Texans 2nd, 3rd or 4th WRs. You are saying Savage is better than Brock but Savage only threw 73 passes last year. That is hardly a sample size that tells us much of anything- which is a good thing for your argument since Savage averaged 153 yards per game and didn't throw a single TD pass last year. Watson could be better. He could be worse. He could be the same. I can't accept the "no reason to think the Texans offense won't get better". That is what everyone said last year with Brock.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I guess maybe I have a different definition of "deep sleeper" than some of you guys. Beasley, Shepard, Jones, Brown, Britt, Austin, Meredith, Williams, and Matthews have already ranked in the Top 40 receivers (some way better than that) and Enunwa just missed the Top 40.
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I gotta agree with this. When I think of a deep sleeper, I'm thinking of the guy I'm taking with the very last pick of the draft (and likely my first cut). Granted, I'm used to 20 round redraft leagues, but these are guys I consider deep sleepers:

Jaron Brown - a more natural replacement for Floyd's role than JJ Nelson. He was actually already stealing that job in week 4 last year, but then his injury got in the way and allowed JJ Nelson a shot. Arizona signed him way earlier than they had to, shortly after his tore his ACL last year, IIRC. I think he's got a solid chance to win that job which could yield 100+ targets. Remember, Arizona pretty much ignores the TE, so it can support 3 WRs with 100+ targets.

Russell Shepard - a long shot for sure, but with Ginn (95 targets) gone and Funchess disappointing, I think Shepard could win the WR2 job at some point. And Benjamin isn't exactly a stud. He was a QB convert, so he's seen a slow progression at WR, but he stepped up last year when injuries struck TB and earned himself a nice 3-year contract with the Panthers. Beat writers were reporting that he was an OTA standout while running with the 1's. 

Paul Richardson - someone else already mentioned him, but I'd like to echo that sentiment. Targets will be hard to come by in this offense, but if there is an injury, I'd like to have Richardson on my roster just in case he finally puts it together.

 
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