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KarmaPolice

Fanduel Week 3

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My 1pm only games did well thanks to the garbage td for cutler/Parker. 

46 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Wait. Bad call cost me 4 points. 

As a lions fan, it pains me to say they got the call right. It sucks because if they call him down we have enough time to get to the line and have another try. Oh well, even when the lions play well and get in a position to win the refs take it away. 

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

My 1pm only games did well thanks to the garbage td for cutler/Parker. 

As a lions fan, it pains me to say they got the call right. It sucks because if they call him down we have enough time to get to the line and have another try. Oh well, even when the lions play well and get in a position to win the refs take it away. 

I dunno. Looked to me that the front edge of the football was across the front edge of the goal line. 

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What I texted a friend at 8:05 who asked whether to play Theo or Ajayi in a ppc league:

I should think Ajayi. But for some reason I don't like him much this week. Objectively it has to be him tho. 

But of course I had Ajayi everywhere. 

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47 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Did much chalk do much today, or was it more of a free for all out there in cash? 

Green and Hunt just missed 3x value and lots of chalk in the late game left.

Other than my Thur-Mon gpp that has 6 players left I don't have much exposure either. Carr is my cash QB and have some Pryor and Crabtree but probably not cashing anything this week.

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4 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

My cash lineup finished at 120. I think that should be enough to carry me through the late game but you never know. 

Nice score.  I think you should be good. 

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On 9/21/2017 at 7:33 AM, Raging weasel said:

Thu-mon $1 gpp

Stafford  Hyde Bell Dez Crabtree Pryor Ebron Bailey 49ers

Really like Hyde this week and 49ers D should be good for 8-10 pts. Bell is cheap and could be low owned due to struggling so far- same with Dez and Pryor. 

Had changed this to

Cousins Hyde Zeke Thomas Cooper Pryor Witten Bailey 49ers

Probably need 100+ from remaining guys to have a shot to cash.

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9 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I'm running at least 1 Rodgers/Adams GPP stack out there even though Rodgers costs a fortune. I'm also rolling out a Brissett/Hilton stack. The latter lets me go crazy with high salary guys wherever I want them. 

I assume that worked out well for you.

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So who screwed you today?  Three people hurt me today.  Doyle, Higgins, and kelvin benj..  
Scores from my two cash LU's

114..this should cash

96  this is just cashing, but there are a bunch of players in the game tonight and I am already calling this a loss.  

 

I did find a player who entered 28 $5 head to heads who was new.  I only took 4 of his entries, but damn I should have took them all.  He only put up 83 points.  

 

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34 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Had changed this to

Cousins Hyde Zeke Thomas Cooper Pryor Witten Bailey 49ers

Probably need 100+ from remaining guys to have a shot to cash.

Cousins Cooper and Pryor all under 5% owned- now just need them to put up 70-80 points LOL

 

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My two FD lineups will both probably make money--108 and 126.  The 108 will likely win a weekly private tourney with 3 other players.

I will have another good but not spectacular week in Yahoo--~$600 wagered with ~$1300 coming back.

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4 minutes ago, chet said:

My two FD lineups will both probably make money--108 and 126.  The 108 will likely win a weekly private tourney with 3 other players.

I will have another good but not spectacular week in Yahoo--~$600 wagered with ~$1300 coming back.

Do you find Yahoo softer than FD?

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3 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

Do you find Yahoo softer than FD?

Yes, although I will say that I pay much more attention to the Yahoo contests than FD.  On FD, I play my private tourney, the million $ GPP and a couple of others.  I think there are more overlay opportunities on Yahoo.

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1 hour ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

What a weird week. Carr looks completely befuddled by ... the Redskin Defense?

We gotta keep remembering that sometimes it takes 4-5 weeks before we start to see what these teams are really like. 

I think it will definitely make Rb interesting next week with guys like Ajayi, Bell not getting it done and guys like Gurley, Cook, Freeman, Howard, doing well. 

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It felt like a strange week to me from the beginning.  I did not have much confidence and scaled back my play.  I entered two cash lineups in only eight 50/50 contests.  One lineup (127.86) had all top ten finishes.  The other (108.04) finished from 30th to 39th.  Maybe I should have played some more...lol.  I was expecting to watch the 108 lineup slip away during the late game, but it managed to hang on.

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6 hours ago, Galileo said:

It felt like a strange week to me from the beginning.  I did not have much confidence and scaled back my play.  I entered two cash lineups in only eight 50/50 contests.  One lineup (127.86) had all top ten finishes.  The other (108.04) finished from 30th to 39th.  Maybe I should have played some more...lol.  I was expecting to watch the 108 lineup slip away during the late game, but it managed to hang on.

Yeah cash lines were low, I wasn't expecting any of my lineups to cash but ended up in the black a bit for the week. Everyone else had bad lineups too. Rolled some prime time games out (sun night/mon night) that I wrote off at halftime because I have carr instead of cousins, but everyone I'm playing against played lynch to my Thompson. Lots of Pryor/Crabtree/Cooper to my Cooper/fitz/dez, so I still have a chance to cash again. 

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11 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Had changed this to

Cousins Hyde Zeke Thomas Cooper Pryor Witten Bailey 49ers

Probably need 100+ from remaining guys to have a shot to cash.

Now I need 70 from Zeke Witten and Bailey. LOL

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On 9/22/2017 at 5:45 PM, lmack said:

What are you favorite stacks of the week?
 

Ending up on Stafford and Brady at QB and not in love with any of their receiving targets.  Is Brady's best stack Gillislee? 

Brady's best stack is NOT in fact Gillislee :wall: 

Got way too cute there.  Pairing him with literally any one of his receiving options would've made for a killer LU.  Tried to predict a specific game flow of the HOU @ NE game  (which didn't come to fruition) rather than just going for correlation plays.  

  • Brady, Hunt/Gillislee, Green/Adams/Sanu, Ertz, Gano, Eagles 129.52
  • Newton, Ajayi/TyMont, Funchess/Cooper/Pryor, Kelce, Bryant, Pats 56.18 :X

LU2 was gross, but Brady lineup hit 2x, 3x, 5x, and squibs to give me positive ROI for the week.  After big loss w1 followed by gains w2, w3, back in the black on the season. On to week 4. 

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8 minutes ago, lmack said:

Brady's best stack is NOT in fact Gillislee :wall: 

Got way too cute there.  Pairing him with literally any one of his receiving options would've made for a killer LU.  Tried to predict a specific game flow of the HOU @ NE game  (which didn't come to fruition) rather than just going for correlation plays.  

  • Brady, Hunt/Gillislee, Green/Adams/Sanu, Ertz, Gano, Eagles 129.52
  • Newton, Ajayi/TyMont, Funchess/Cooper/Pryor, Kelce, Bryant, Pats 56.18 :X

LU2 was gross, but Brady lineup hit 2x, 3x, 5x, and squibs to give me positive ROI for the week.  After big loss w1 followed by gains w2, w3, back in the black on the season. On to week 4. 

I was all set to put in 6 Brady-Cooks stacks at the start of the week, and had one with Hogan in there too.  Ended up at the end of the week with just 2 of them, and no Hogan as I convinced myself that the running game was the way to go. 

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Thanks to my cousin/Thompson stacks I will end up on the right side of things which is crazy considering the amount of duds I had filling my cash games.  Whew 

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Ended up with almost 2xing on the week, which I will gladly take on a week with this many landmines.   Starting to think there isn't a good answer as to what to target between 50/50s and H2Hs.  I would have cashed all if I just did 50/50s I think, but lost more than 1/2 my H2Hs (after leading all of them but one going into the SNF game), because I just happen to pick 10-12 opponents that had Cousins at QB.

Gpps I fared a bit better.  Had a $1 entry go for $25, got $3 from the free play, and cashed a couple more.  My Thurs-Mon $1 is sitting at $15 too. 

Good gpp ideas I had:  Brady, Cooks, Thomas, and going over the field and having about 50% AJGreen

Bad ideas I had:  a lot, but mostly the rbs like Crowell and Gilleslee I was heavy on and they sunk my LUs.  Kelce I way over on too, and I guess that KC/SD in general as the SD side mostly sucked.    I was not on that Indy or Minn game at all. 

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I managed to min-cash several GPPs to help ease the loss in cash. But I had so little action that none of it really mattered much. Lost about $15.00. I never felt comfortable about anything this week. 

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My 114 score cashed easily.  My 95 score missed by an average of 4 points.  Thats sucks as I had Stafford and the TD at the end of the game would have put me in the green but they said he was down....

I wagered $238 this weekend and ended up only getting $216 back.  Could have been a much worse weekend.

 

My duds were Stafford, Doyle, K Benj, Higgins, and Ty mont.  They were not even close to returning value.  

 

I also will not roster another Carolina player, that team is horrible.

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5 minutes ago, wyattroa said:

My 114 score cashed easily.  My 95 score missed by an average of 4 points.  Thats sucks as I had Stafford and the TD at the end of the game would have put me in the green but they said he was down....

I wagered $238 this weekend and ended up only getting $216 back.  Could have been a much worse weekend.

 

My duds were Stafford, Doyle, K Benj, Higgins, and Ty mont.  They were not even close to returning value.  

 

I also will not roster another Carolina player, that team is horrible.

That McCaffrey kid is kinda good. 

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On ‎9‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 0:30 AM, BroncosFan07 said:

GPPs

1.  Stafford, Hunt, Anderson, Allen, Cooks, Marvin Jones, Ertz, Santos, Broncos

2. Brady, Gordon, Montgomery, Cooks, AJ Green, Higgins, Ertz, Santos, Eagles

3. Wentz, Hunt, Montgomery, Cooper, Allen, AJ Green, Doyle, Hopkins, Eagles

4.  Ryan, Gordon, Riddick, Julio, Cooks, AJ Green, Z. Miller, Santos, Eagles

1. 112 points.  Cashed $1.50 in large GPP.  Missed cashing in Sunday Millions by 0.02.  Literally that last pass for 25-30 yards by Carr cost me $10. 

2.  135 points.  Only entered into Sunday Millions.  Cashed $15.  Was looking awesome until Gordon, Montgomery, and Santos did basically nothing for their last 2 or 3 quarters.

3.  92 points.  Lost the $1 200k sun NFL drive.

4.  112 points.  Won $1.50 in the 200k sun NFL Drive.

 

Overall Conclusion:

These 4 lineups were the 4 that I picked as my best before I entered them.  I did numerous pivots from these cores.  Overall in GPP I was $22 in and $26 out.  $15 of my winnings came from the Sunday Millions which I had a free entry from winning a $1 satellite the week before.  Total Entry fees would have been $34 in and $26 out.  I don't think I have the bankroll or the time to study the matchups enough to continue playing many GPPs.  The value of these GPPs is skewed drastically by the top 5-10 payouts and the amount of luck and research needed to invest in these isn't worth it.  Going forward, I'll enter in 2-4 GPPs for fun and spend most of my time in cash games. 

My cash games this week were $27 in and $39.90 out.  I won 12 out of my 13 double ups using 8 lineups.  I won 2 of my 5 five-player so I nearly doubled my money here.  Surprisingly my 3 player tourneys didn't do so well.  Only won 1 out of 6 three-player matches. 

Good week overall.  $49 in and $65.90 out.  I was bailed out by the zero entrée fee $15 Sunday Millions win though.  I'm going to be going 95% cash and 5% going forward.  Typically was closer to 50-50% most weeks.  I can't bail on GPPS all together though.  The entertainment value they bring outweigh the losses!

 

 

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22 minutes ago, BroncosFan07 said:

1. 112 points.  Cashed $1.50 in large GPP.  Missed cashing in Sunday Millions by 0.02.  Literally that last pass for 25-30 yards by Carr cost me $10. 

2.  135 points.  Only entered into Sunday Millions.  Cashed $15.  Was looking awesome until Gordon, Montgomery, and Santos did basically nothing for their last 2 or 3 quarters.

3.  92 points.  Lost the $1 200k sun NFL drive.

4.  112 points.  Won $1.50 in the 200k sun NFL Drive.

 

Overall Conclusion:

These 4 lineups were the 4 that I picked as my best before I entered them.  I did numerous pivots from these cores.  Overall in GPP I was $22 in and $26 out.  $15 of my winnings came from the Sunday Millions which I had a free entry from winning a $1 satellite the week before.  Total Entry fees would have been $34 in and $26 out.  I don't think I have the bankroll or the time to study the matchups enough to continue playing many GPPs.  The value of these GPPs is skewed drastically by the top 5-10 payouts and the amount of luck and research needed to invest in these isn't worth it.  Going forward, I'll enter in 2-4 GPPs for fun and spend most of my time in cash games. 

My cash games this week were $27 in and $39.90 out.  I won 12 out of my 13 double ups using 8 lineups.  I won 2 of my 5 five-player so I nearly doubled my money here.  Surprisingly my 3 player tourneys didn't do so well.  Only won 1 out of 6 three-player matches. 

Good week overall.  $49 in and $65.90 out.  I was bailed out by the zero entrée fee $15 Sunday Millions win though.  I'm going to be going 95% cash and 5% going forward.  Typically was closer to 50-50% most weeks.  I can't bail on GPPS all together though.  The entertainment value they bring outweigh the losses!

 

 

@BroncosFan07 -

I wouldn't be discouraged too much.  Your LUs were fine, they were just chalkier on a week were the chalk didn't hit a ton.  Most articles I read suggest doing something more like 80%-20% for cash-gpps each week at the most.  Mostly like you said it's only the top 17-20% that get paid.  Of course the point to try is you could hit one decent LU that pays for the entries and then some. 

The more I listen to podcasts and read stuff, the more it's apparent to me that ownership % is so huge in gpps.  Seems most of what they talk about is if player X is 20% owned do you want to be 40% in on him, or more on the lines of fading him - ie AJ Green this week. 

 

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33 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@BroncosFan07 -

I wouldn't be discouraged too much.  Your LUs were fine, they were just chalkier on a week were the chalk didn't hit a ton.  Most articles I read suggest doing something more like 80%-20% for cash-gpps each week at the most.  Mostly like you said it's only the top 17-20% that get paid.  Of course the point to try is you could hit one decent LU that pays for the entries and then some. 

The more I listen to podcasts and read stuff, the more it's apparent to me that ownership % is so huge in gpps.  Seems most of what they talk about is if player X is 20% owned do you want to be 40% in on him, or more on the lines of fading him - ie AJ Green this week. 

 

Maybe I'm playing the wrong GPPs?  Which are the best?  Most of my lineups are entered into the $1 200K Sun NFL Dive.  Should I be playing more 500-1000 man GPPs? 

Look at the breakdown of the prize structure for this event and how low the payout is for the odds!!  For my $1 to with $40, it would have to place in the top 99.88%.  To win $15, it has to be in the top 99.57%!!   I would feel awesome about a lineup that was in the top 99.57% however I wouldn't feel awesome about only winning $15.   I can throw a few lineups and $30-$50 at double ups and have a better shot of profiting $15. 

Disclaimer:  I'm not complaining about my week.  I came out ahead in GPP and Cash so I'm very pleased.....just trying to analyze my tourney selection to see if I'm one of 100,000 people who are throwing my $20 in each week so that 1 person can win 5k and a few others can win $500-2500. 

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16 hours ago, chet said:

Yes, although I will say that I pay much more attention to the Yahoo contests than FD.  On FD, I play my private tourney, the million $ GPP and a couple of others.  I think there are more overlay opportunities on Yahoo.

I also pay much more attention to the Yahoo contests, and also do so because of the overlay.  I don't play cash on FD at all, just a few tournaments each week, like you.  But then I'll usually have $200-$500 in play each week on Yahoo. 

If you start a "Yahoo Week 4" thread, I'll participate.  lol

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Wow... Doyle/CJ Anderson/Crabtree/Kelce/Montgomery really killed this week for me, had at least one of those in almost all my contests.

In 1 of my GPP I had high 90's points with Carr/Crabtree/Cooper stack to go and that was like the best hour I've had in  awhile waiting for that  game to start.  I thought it was going to be a big $ win for me.  Then near the end of the 1st quarter I could already see defeat in their eyes, knew I was done for.

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