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RB Ronald Jones, Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Chaka said:
That simply is not Arians M.O.

Besides there are very few RBs that get 65% or more of a teams carries and the ones that do are special talents like Zeke, McCaffrey & Saquon. Dalvin is only getting 68% of the carries in Minnesota.

Do we think Ronald is that caliber of RB?
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I don’t know if it comes down to talent...Chubb and Kerryon likely fall into the +65% range now.  Both are what I would consider solid, but not special talents.

In TB’s case...Barber has been in the role he’s been in since the beginning of the 2018 season largely due to the fact that he was the lesser of two evils so to speak.  He limited the downside, but produced pretty much no upside.  As such, in 2018 he accounted for 77% of the RB rush attempts for the Bucs because they had no other options.

But with Jones finally starting to look like the light is coming on...we could see a reversal.  To the extent he gets in the 75-80% range...TBD.  I think Barber still has a role and now the Bucs have a mere diversified backfield.  But Jones has always been the greater talent here and now he’s just starting to realize it.  The more he does, the bigger his workloads.

 
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He looks soooooo much better this year, but he's still not looking like an above average NFL back IMO.

If that passing game work can improve the way the rest of his game did over this offseason, maybe next season he can be seen as a start who has the primary duties locked down?

 
Grahamburn said:
TB was the #1 passing offense in the NFL last year. They look well on their way to being right up there with the best of the best again. 
 

There’s so much misinformation thrown around out there about the Bucs. 
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Let's sharpen the point here, since this is, after all, a thread about Rojo and the ability of the Bucs to run the ball (where you are focused for some reason on the passing game).

Tampa Bay's rush offense this year has been middling. 17th in total rush yards, 16th in rush ypg.

Last year they were 29th in both total rush yards and rush ypg.

I would say their line is middling as well in terms of run blocking -- Football Outsiders rank them 18th for adj. line yards (they were 31st in the same category last year).

RoJo is looking good despite this, but I think his performance isn't being fully exploited because:

  1. Arians inexplicably doesn't want to give him a load to see if RoJo can contribute even more
  2. TB is a pass-first team
 
TheDirtyWord said:
I don’t know if it comes down to talent...Chubb and Kerryon likely fall into the +65% range now.  Both are what I would consider solid, but not special talents.

In TB’s case...Barber has been in the role he’s been in since the beginning of the 2018 season largely due to the fact that he was the lesser of two evils so to speak.  He limited the downside, but produced pretty much no upside.  As such, in 2018 he accounted for 77% of the RB rush attempts for the Bucs because they had no other options.

But with Jones finally starting to look like the light is coming on...we could see a reversal.  To the extent he gets in the 75-80% range...TBD.  I think Barber still has a role and now the Bucs have a mere diversified backfield.  But Jones has always been the greater talent here and now he’s just starting to realize it.  The more he does, the bigger his workloads.
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Kerryon 67%

Chubb, who looks better than"solid" by an order of magnitude is getting 87.6%

 
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TheDirtyWord said:
Chris Carson a special talent?  75% of the RB carries?  Marlon Mack...same thing?  Special?
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I'd argue that so far in their careers, both Carson and Mack have shown a lot more special-ness than RoJo.

To be clear, Carson and Mack aren't elite like Saquon, Zeke, and CMC, and Dalvin is def. making a case for elite talent. But both Carson and Mack are way more proven than RoJo at this point.

And, to be clear, RoJo could indeed end up being as special in terms of talent. He definitely did not seem that way last year (was pedestrian by both stats and eye test); this year a different story, but will remain to be seen if his performance continues to remain at this high level (chances are at this point, they might), and more importantly, if he gets that chance in terms of increased share.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I'd argue that so far in their careers, both Carson and Mack have shown a lot more special-ness than RoJo.

To be clear, Carson and Mack aren't elite like Saquon, Zeke, and CMC, and Dalvin is def. making a case for elite talent. But both Carson and Mack are way more proven than RoJo at this point.

And, to be clear, RoJo could indeed end up being as special in terms of talent. He definitely did not seem that way last year (was pedestrian by both stats and eye test); this year a different story, but will remain to be seen if his performance continues to remain at this high level (chances are at this point, they might), and more importantly, if he gets that chance in terms of increased share.
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The original point was only the ‘special’ talents (Zeke, Saquon, CMC) secure 65% of a teams carries to which I countered.  No doubt that Carson/Mack have done more in their careers to date...but I wouldn’t consider either a ‘special talent’.  They’ve essentially worked their way to being the most productive members of their teams respective backfields.

...and that’s what matters ultimately.  Production.  So can RoJo emerge as such a back in 2019?  Of course.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
The original point was only the ‘special’ talents (Zeke, Saquon, CMC) secure 65% of a teams carries to which I countered.  No doubt that Carson/Mack have done more in their careers to date...but I wouldn’t consider either a ‘special talent’.  They’ve essentially worked their way to being the most productive members of their teams respective backfields.

...and that’s what matters ultimately.  Production.  So can RoJo emerge as such a back in 2019?  Of course.
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I read the point that looking at hig carry % backs, those who do demand a broad share of the load tend to be special talents (not that only special talents get that load).

And that was in response to the original point of belief that RoJo would get that share based on production.

Sure, production matters, and anything is possible.

But at this point there are a few things (I named two in specific) working against RoJo even despite production.

We'll see -- hopefully Arians sees the light. He hasn't so far based on the carry distribution, despite a clear difference in production.

One thing in RoJo's favor is the team's pass play % is decidedly different than last year -- they are definitely running the ball more.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Chris Carson a special talent?  75% of the RB carries?  Marlon Mack...same thing?  Special?
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I would say that Mack is playing at a special level since he got the nod last season.

Carson, no. But so what? There's always going to be exceptions and a Pete Carroll offense seems like a far more likely place to find that exception than a Bruce Arians offense.  Doesn't it?

 
Chaka said:
I would say that Mack is playing at a special level since he got the nod last season.

Carson, no. But so what? There's always going to be exceptions and a Pete Carroll offense seems like a far more likely place to find that exception than a Bruce Arians offense.  Doesn't it?
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I guess I’m struggling with your definition of ‘special’...like why Mack would be playing at a special level but not Carson.

Last 16 games:

Mack: 267/1246/11 & 21/129/1

Carson: 296/1356/9 & 30/218/2

...and there is a parallel here between those two and RoJo.  Namely, it was only this time last year when both Mack & Carson, in their second professional seasons like RoJo, were in the very formative stages of establishing themselves as their respective teams bellcows which they most definitely have.  Couldn’t that be exactly where RoJo is at the moment?

To me...if we’re putting Mack/Carson in a ‘special’ category...then why can’t RoJo get there?  His draft pedigree is better.  

As far as the difference between Arians/Carroll...what evidence is there that Carroll is the exception?

 
TheDirtyWord said:
I guess I’m struggling with your definition of ‘special’...like why Mack would be playing at a special level but not Carson.

Last 16 games:

Mack: 267/1246/11 & 21/129/1

Carson: 296/1356/9 & 30/218/2

...and there is a parallel here between those two and RoJo.  Namely, it was only this time last year when both Mack & Carson, in their second professional seasons like RoJo, were in the very formative stages of establishing themselves as their respective teams bellcows which they most definitely have.  Couldn’t that be exactly where RoJo is at the moment?

To me...if we’re putting Mack/Carson in a ‘special’ category...then why can’t RoJo get there?  His draft pedigree is better.  

As far as the difference between Arians/Carroll...what evidence is there that Carroll is the exception?

,
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We only have one meaningful season from each of these guys to make judgments.  

I think Carson has earned his opportunities this season based on last season's performance but has failed to back it up (4.7 ypc vs 4.0 ypc). The three fumbles don't look that great either.

Mack, otoh, has picked up exactly where he left off with matching 4.7 ypcs.  They are relatively small sample sizes for each player and we're only a quarter of the season into 2019 so things could change.  But right now Mack seems like he is playing at a consistently high level and Carson is not.

I absolutely think Jones could be having a breakout performance, I dropped Barber for him, but there is the bigger picture of the respective coaching staffs that each of these RBs play for.  Arians has a long history of favoring trusted, stable veterans in favor of explosive, but unproven, younger players (he also isn't a big fan of TEs but that's for another thread). Pete Carroll has always been a "Best player starts regardless." coach.  Reich is a bit of an x-factor as his HC history is brief.

It seems highly unlikely that Jones is going to start tallying 70%+ of TBs RB touches as long as Barber is healthy and Arians is the HC.

 
It seems highly unlikely that Jones is going to start tallying 70%+ of TBs RB touches as long as Barber is healthy and Arians is the HC.
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Agreed. He’s on the bench for me this week, but it’s feeling like when I need. YE replacements for Carson & Montgomery, Jones & Singletary will be ready for me. 🙏

 
Chaka said:
We only have one meaningful season from each of these guys to make judgments.  

I think Carson has earned his opportunities this season based on last season's performance but has failed to back it up (4.7 ypc vs 4.0 ypc). The three fumbles don't look that great either.

Mack, otoh, has picked up exactly where he left off with matching 4.7 ypcs.  They are relatively small sample sizes for each player and we're only a quarter of the season into 2019 so things could change.  But right now Mack seems like he is playing at a consistently high level and Carson is not.

I absolutely think Jones could be having a breakout performance, I dropped Barber for him, but there is the bigger picture of the respective coaching staffs that each of these RBs play for.  Arians has a long history of favoring trusted, stable veterans in favor of explosive, but unproven, younger players (he also isn't a big fan of TEs but that's for another thread). Pete Carroll has always been a "Best player starts regardless." coach.  Reich is a bit of an x-factor as his HC history is brief.

It seems highly unlikely that Jones is going to start tallying 70%+ of TBs RB touches as long as Barber is healthy and Arians is the HC.
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Relating to Carson...did you watch TNF?  Guy is a tackle breaking machine. SEA clearly leans on Carson given they gave him 54 touches in a 4 day period.

As a HC, Arians has rolled with young players at RB like Andre Ellington and David Johnson.  The veteran in front of RoJo is a 4th year player with a career 3.8 YPC.  I can’t say I see any established pattern here on Arians part that would preclude him from leaning on Jones at some point in the near future if RoJo is simply the more productive/effective player.

 
 I can’t say I see any established pattern here on Arians part that would preclude him from leaning on Jones at some point in the near future if RoJo is simply the more productive/effective player.
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Agreed - and Ronald Jones has looked more effective than Barber pretty much all year. Gotta believe if we can see that, Arians can see that. 

Jones runs with so much more violence than Barber. Barber dances behind the line, and even when he commits early he’ll often crash into the back of a lineman & go down. 

Barber’s had a couple of big games over his career, but those seem more like the anomaly than anything he’s capable of on a week to week basis. 

I really want to see what Jones can do with a 25 touch game. Especially now that Winston is playing well. 

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Relating to Carson...did you watch TNF?  Guy is a tackle breaking machine. SEA clearly leans on Carson given they gave him 54 touches in a 4 day period.

As a HC, Arians has rolled with young players at RB like Andre Ellington and David Johnson.  The veteran in front of RoJo is a 4th year player with a career 3.8 YPC.  I can’t say I see any established pattern here on Arians part that would preclude him from leaning on Jones at some point in the near future if RoJo is simply the more productive/effective player.
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Yes I did. I'm a big fan of Carson, he runs hard. But he hasn't been as effective this season as he was last season SO FAR. Like I said, were only a quarter into the season so it can turn around. But right now Carson, on the season, hasn't lived up to last year's production.

Mack has.

Arians may give Jones a chance, you're right that he gave Ellington a shot as a 2nd year player, and he got about 57% of the carries. He rolled with David Johnson in year 2. Are we thinking Jones is David Johnson? It also took a Chris Johnson injury to get Arians to give David Johnson a start during his rookie season.

I'm pulling for Jones but anything more than 60% of RB touches is gravy. 70% or above seems highly unrealistic.

And let's remember, you and I are arguing about the difference between 65% (my max) and you're suggestion of, what? a shade over 70%?

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Semantics and the meaning of special aside, I won't argue ranking Mack ahead of Carson by body of work.

But Carson is running through m'fn faces a la Beast Mode this year. Particularly last night.

Mack hasn't looked that kind of special this year, IMHO.
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Agree that Carson can truck, particularly last night.

Mack isn't a back that trucks but every time I see him carry the ball he's making defenders have to pick up their equipment between plays. He's got great vision and manages to find gaps and gain yards even in broken plays.

But, like I said, it's early in the season and we don't have enough info to really judge either of these guys yet. I am certainly not saying definitively that either is special or not at this point.

But the topic here.is Ronald Jones and the early returns are.very good, but we know far less about him than we do about either Carson or Mack.

 
But the topic here.is Ronald Jones and the early returns are.very good, but we know far less about him than we do about either Carson or Mack.
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From his time at USC we know he is a very good running back, and consensus opinion was that he was worthy of a high draft selection. 

It’s funny how one bad rookie season and all the fantasy armchair coaches make these sweeping generalizations about a player. 

In 2017, starting 13 games at USC Jones put up 1550 yards on 261 carries (5.9 YPC) with 19 TDs.

Of the RBs in the NFL who have a legitimate shot at a breakout campaign out of nowhere, Ronald Jones is certainly one of the ones capable of that.

What he needs for that to happen is the lion’s  share of touches.

it might be coming. Then again, it might be RBBC from hell all year. 

IMO it won’t be this week against a tough run defense, so if you’re thinking a big 2nd half is coming for RoJo, next week might be a good time to buy low. 

 
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Guys let me just make this easy for you. I am starting Jones tomorrow in my flex, every time I start him he does crappy and every time a bench him he does well. So count on less than 30 total yards and a touchdown tomorrow

 
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rickyg said:
Guys let me just make this easy for you. I am starting Jones tomorrow in my flex, every time I start him he does crappy and every time a bench him he does well. So count on less than 30 total yards and a touchdown tomorrow
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Isn’t that the way of fantasy football....😁

 
rickyg said:
Guys let me just make this easy for you. I am starting Jones tomorrow in my flex, every time I start him he does crappy and every time a bench him he does well. So count on less than 30 total yards and a touchdown tomorrow
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Well then go bench him immediately please.

 
I tentatively have him in my lineup over Damien and Darrell Williams. I am hoping one of them is inactive tomorrow, in which case Jones goes back to the bench. 

 
don't care what he is or what he isn't, what he's doing is working ( of late, anyways) and for that I thank him.

good waiver add if you can get him, games against falcons, texans, saints, cards coming up.plenty of opportunity there. if Jameis has turned the corner, he'll bring RJ along for the ride.

maybe they just figure let's give him 20+ carries/gm and see what  he can do.

 
Chaka said:
I tentatively have him in my lineup over Damien and Darrell Williams. I am hoping one of them is inactive tomorrow, in which case Jones goes back to the bench. 
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I have Damien in over him but having second thoughts. I wouldn't expect either to sit out, Darrell was active in the first two weeks IIRC.

 
Completely forgot Ronald Jones plays the early game and Damien/Darrel play Sunday Night.

Think I gotta go with the KC offense at home in Primetime rather than Jones on the road vs a seemingly surging NO defense.

Damien now in my lineup.

 
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DYNASTY:  P. Barber is UFA after this season.  If R. Jones is on your waiver wire, you have to roster this guy, right?  Right?? 

 
pinequick said:
DYNASTY:  P. Barber is UFA after this season.  If R. Jones is on your waiver wire, you have to roster this guy, right?  Right?? 
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1000%. Spend a sizable chunk of budget to do so. 

I’m psyched to have him in dynasty for that reason especially. I think they let Barber walk. 

 
pinequick said:
DYNASTY:  P. Barber is UFA after this season.  If R. Jones is on your waiver wire, you have to roster this guy, right?  Right?? 
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It’s odd he was on waivers for this long in a dynasty. I can’t imagine he was dropped recently after showing well during the last two weeks.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
1000%. Spend a sizable chunk of budget to do so. 

I’m psyched to have him in dynasty for that reason especially. I think they let Barber walk. 
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Unless they can bring Barber back very cheap, which is possible because where will the market for him be, they likely let him walk. The biggest threat to Jones would be the outstanding RB class coming in next year or perhaps free agency. I could see them target Gordon perhaps.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Unless they can bring Barber back very cheap, which is possible because where will the market for him be, they likely let him walk. The biggest threat to Jones would be the outstanding RB class coming in next year or perhaps free agency. I could see them target Gordon perhaps.
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If the Bucs don’t spend every single draft pick on OL, then DB, they’re nuts. 

 
Didn't see the game, any insights here for RoJo?

From the stats, Jones and Barber had similar production but Barber got the TD. Assume the Saints D were playing tough as well.

Was the attempt split any different? Anything look different in terms of their usage? 

Did one back look demonstrably better than the other?

Same old same old?

 
Ronald Jones rushed nine times for 35 yards in the Bucs' Week 5 loss to the Saints, adding two receptions for 21 additional yards.

Jones once again out-gained Peyton Barber, but Barber was the one who found the end zone as the duo operated in an even rotation. There wasn't much running room as the Saints kept caving in the Bucs' offensive line. Week 6 opponent Carolina is more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, but Jones won't be an overly-appealing FLEX for the neutral-site showdown in London.
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Didn't see the game, any insights here for RoJo?

From the stats, Jones and Barber had similar production but Barber got the TD. Assume the Saints D were playing tough as well.

Was the attempt split any different? Anything look different in terms of their usage? 

Did one back look demonstrably better than the other?

Same old same old?
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Saints run D is tough. I didn’t expect a huge game from any of the RBs. 

 
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-week-5-stealing-signals-stats-waiver-targets-trade-candidates-for-every-team/

Snap Notes: Ronald Jones - 34% (-15% vs. last week's season high), Peyton Barber - 34% (+8% vs. last week's season low), Dare Ogunbowale - 32% (+3 vs. season average)

As for Ronald Jones, after his breakout Week 4 he had to watch as Peyton Barber got the start and four of the first five carries across the first four possessions. Jones got three carries and caught two passes for 39 total yards as the focal point of their fifth drive, but that was it for the Bucs in the first half. And then in the second half, they went pass-heavy as they were chasing points, and passing-downs back Dare Ogunbowale got plenty of snaps. All three backs wound up with similar playing time overall, with Jones leading the rushers despite his slow start and matching Ogunbowale's three targets. But Jones ran just seven routes and the overall usage was a bad sign for those of us who would like to see him take over the backfield.
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Ronald Jones rushed four times for 10 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 against the Panthers.

Jones managed to score a five-yard touchdown but that was his only highlight. He played behind and saw fewer carries than Peyton Barber. The Bucs were forced to abandon the run with Jameis Winston committing six turnovers. Jones will be a low-end FLEX when the Bucs come out of their bye in Week 8.
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Boone22 said:
Yes this is complete hyperbole but I’m going to type it anyway as food for thought...

Joe Mixon

32 rushes for 88 yards (2.8ypc)

7 receptions for 51 yards, 1TD

Ronald Jones

31 rushes for 164 yards (5.3ypc)

2 receptions for 59 yards, 0TD

Both are young and play behind horrible O-lines. One guy is considered a #1 RB and the other is barely flex-worthy.
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More hyperbole....

Mixon: 252 rushing yards, 3.4ypc, 14 receptions, 97 receiving yards, 1 TD 

Jones: 279 rushing yards, 4.4ypc, 5 receptions, 92 receiving yards, 2 TDs

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Guess the vision of RoJo's talent winning out a larger share of this backfield is firmly dead, if it wasn't already last week?
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Game script killed both Barber and Jones in this one...

But aside from that, I could see Arians very much realizing that they can’t be throwing the ball 63% of the time with the TO machine Winston continues to be.

At 13.6 touches/game currently...having that get bumped into the 15-16 range is very realistic just based on reducing pass game reliance. 

 
Hand it to RoJo - 5 yard TD!

Arians to his OC: “NEVER DO THAT #### AGAIN! Winston has 6 more turnovers to commit & I took the over at 4!”

- a conversation that must have happened on the sidelines. 

 
hamsterdam said:
Let’s hope BA makes some changes during their bye. 
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Hate to deflate your hope but this  is when I like to remind people that it took both CJ2K and Andre Ellington to both get hurt, in the same week 12 I believe, for David Johnson to finally break out his rookie season under Arians. He was getting a combined 6 touches a game before they both went down.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Guess the vision of RoJo's talent winning out a larger share of this backfield is firmly dead, if it wasn't already last week?
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I don't think many people saw that happening this early in the season regardless of how well he performed. As has been pointed out many times, most recently by @menobrown, that just isn't Arians's MO.

I am hoping he learned something from the David Johnson experience but even if he has Ronald Jones is probably no David Johnson.

 
Ronald Jones was responsible for 67 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries along with two catches for 15 yards on two targets Sunday in the Buccaneers’ Week 9 loss to the Seahawks.

Notably, Jones—who has spent the year working in tandem with Peyton Barber—led the backfield with 20 touches to Barber's four. The second-round sophomore was largely held in check (3.7 yards per carry), though he did provide an eight-yard touchdown on Tampa's opening drive, marking his third end-zone visit of 2019. The Buccaneers are unquestionably a pass-first offense—they attempted 44 passes compared to just 26 runs in Sunday's defeat. But when Tampa Bay does decide to run, it's usually with Jones, who has at least been serviceable in his newfound role atop the Bucs' backfield pecking order. Faced with a reasonably good matchup back home against the Cardinals, Jones can be regarded as a no-frills RB3/flex in Week 10.
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He looked good during the game and I think we're finally going to see Jones take over this back field.

I'd still be suggesting a buy on him while he's being overlooked.

 
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