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Is Alex Smith now an elite fantasy QB? (1 Viewer)

Alluro

Footballguy
He’s currently sitting behind Watson as the #2 scoring QB in my league. He leads the NFL in completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt. He also has 11 TD passes to 0 INTs and is a threat with his legs.

Are things finally clicking for the former first overall pick to break out of his game manager mold or is this a mirage?

 
He wont finish #1 but he should be a top 12 QB without a doubt. Great oline, weapons at RB, WR, & TE, shaky defense, gets rushing yards.

 
So what do they do next year?  It was a foregone conclusion that Smith was gone after this year.  He has MVP potential right now - how do you let a QB with MVP numbers walk?  Kind of puts his dynasty value in flux a little, albeit still in a way better place than anyone would have predicted it would be.

 
I said it before the season started, I think he has a great season.  I think he's trying to prove to his team and the rest of the league that he's a great QB and should be starting for a while.  The Chiefs drafting a QB this year must have lit a fire for him because he's playing differently than he has in the past.

 
no.  but he looks like it for a few weeks a season.  when you start to trust him and start him he will let you down

 
So what do they do next year?  It was a foregone conclusion that Smith was gone after this year.  He has MVP potential right now - how do you let a QB with MVP numbers walk?  Kind of puts his dynasty value in flux a little, albeit still in a way better place than anyone would have predicted it would be.
Think you have to keep Smith as long as he’s performing. Mahomes is cheap money and he could probably use some time learning anyways. 

 
Think you have to keep Smith as long as he’s performing. Mahomes is cheap money and he could probably use some time learning anyways. 
He is going to be expensive, in demand, and will want a long term deal.  Kind of a funky situation when you just used a first round pick on his replacement.  I guess they could franchise him?

 
He is going to be expensive, in demand, and will want a long term deal.  Kind of a funky situation when you just used a first round pick on his replacement.  I guess they could franchise him?
Well, they have him through next season and could franchise tag him if need be in 2019. At that point you probably have to be ready to turn the keys over to Mahomes in 2020 at the latest I would think.

 
Elite? No.

A high floor every week starter? Yes.

if kelce can’t go will be interesting to see how Smith maintains this floor. I think he and this Chiefs offense can keep rumbling.

 
Kelce, hill, hunt, west, Harris, Wilson....lots of weapons...can run..ball has some zip this year...showing less fear going deep....defense good enough to cover any mistakes....andy Reid offense....

he has a lot going for him this year

 
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I said it before the season started, I think he has a great season.  I think he's trying to prove to his team and the rest of the league that he's a great QB and should be starting for a while.  The Chiefs drafting a QB this year must have lit a fire for him because he's playing differently than he has in the past.
IIRC he’s had like 6-7 OCs, no QB can be successful considering his situation throughout his career.

Tex

 
I had an offer of Dak straight up for him, which I declined. I think Alex looks fantastic from the games I've seen of him and no signs of things slowing down. His schedule ROS doesn't scare me either.

 
He is going to be expensive, in demand, and will want a long term deal.  Kind of a funky situation when you just used a first round pick on his replacement.  I guess they could franchise him?
He's still under contract for 2018 at $14.5MM so if he keeps this up and the Chiefs go far in the playoffs, I think they have to keep him at least one more season. That would still give them three years of Mahomes under his rookie contract afterwards.

 
How many of his tds were 18 inch shovel passes to kelce or jet sweeps to a wr? Smoke and mirrors that defenses won't allow 2nd half of season. Can Mahomes pass 18 inches forward? I credit Reid more than smith for those plays as any qb could run them.

Eta: and to answer your question. No, he is not an elite qb.

 
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He's still under contract for 2018 at $14.5MM so if he keeps this up and the Chiefs go far in the playoffs, I think they have to keep him at least one more season. That would still give them three years of Mahomes under his rookie contract afterwards.
My bad.  I thought all along when they drafted Mahomes that this was his last year (per his contract).  I didnt even think to look it up.  Good for them...they have options next year, and thats very affordable if he can keep playing well.

 
How many of his tds were 18 inch shovel passes to kelce or jet sweeps to a wr? Smoke and mirrors that defenses won't allow 2nd half of season. Can Mahomes pass 18 inches forward? I credit Reid more than smith for those plays as any qb could run them.

Eta: and to answer your question. No, he is not an elite qb.
He's got 11 passing TDs through 5 weeks. You make it sound like he's got an unreal number. 

 
How many of his tds were 18 inch shovel passes to kelce or jet sweeps to a wr? Smoke and mirrors that defenses won't allow 2nd half of season. Can Mahomes pass 18 inches forward? I credit Reid more than smith for those plays as any qb could run them.

Eta: and to answer your question. No, he is not an elite qb.
Salty

 
Usually someone chimes in with the answer by now. I know at least 3 or 4, maybe more.
The Chiefs have been in primetime a lot and to be honest I don't remember many cheap TD passes. One week he did throw two short passes to West for scores, but its seems weird to hold things like that against him when every QB gets some short TD passes.

 
How many of his tds were 18 inch shovel passes to kelce or jet sweeps to a wr? Smoke and mirrors that defenses won't allow 2nd half of season. Can Mahomes pass 18 inches forward? I credit Reid more than smith for those plays as any qb could run them.

Eta: and to answer your question. No, he is not an elite qb.
I have his average TD pass this year to be 23 yards exactly.  The shortest of which, 3 yards.

I am assuming you haven't watched this offense this year?

ETA - The answer to your question is ZERO.  None.

 
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I've watched every snap of kc. if you shovel pass the ball to Kelce for less than a yard and he runs for 25 yard TD that means stat wise he threw a 25 yard TD, but skill wise he basically handed the ball off. Are you saying he didn't do this to Kelce twice and to a WR at least once on a jet sweep?

 
As of right now there are 5 elite QBs: Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson, Dak, Brady and Rodgers. Barring injury, everyone would agree that Brady and Rodgers will stay there. They are performing exactly as expected. I think Dak has a good chance to stay there. As a rookie Dak was a reliable QB1 so it shouldn't be too surprising that in year 2 he takes a step up to the top of fantasy QBs- especially when you consider he is on pace to throw 120+ more passes than last year. However, he is still only on pace for 3800 yards so he is living off of TDs and that could regress. That brings us to Watson and Smith. I find it hard to believe they continue as elite. Both provide a nice bonus with their legs, but we have seen 12 years of Smith and he's never played like this. It's really hard to imagine it carry at this clip. With Watson, he could have a Cam like rookie year but it's more likely that he plays tougher match-ups and closer games where there aren't 2 garbage time TDs. 

 
I've watched every snap of kc. if you shovel pass the ball to Kelce for less than a yard and he runs for 25 yard TD that means stat wise he threw a 25 yard TD, but skill wise he basically handed the ball off. Are you saying he didn't do this to Kelce twice and to a WR at least once on a jet sweep?
Do you know how many of Brady's TDs have been passes behind the line of scrimmage? It is likely more than you think.

 
As of right now there are 5 elite QBs: Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson, Dak, Brady and Rodgers. Barring injury, everyone would agree that Brady and Rodgers will stay there. They are performing exactly as expected. I think Dak has a good chance to stay there. As a rookie Dak was a reliable QB1 so it shouldn't be too surprising that in year 2 he takes a step up to the top of fantasy QBs- especially when you consider he is on pace to throw 120+ more passes than last year. However, he is still only on pace for 3800 yards so he is living off of TDs and that could regress. That brings us to Watson and Smith. I find it hard to believe they continue as elite. Both provide a nice bonus with their legs, but we have seen 12 years of Smith and he's never played like this. It's really hard to imagine it carry at this clip. With Watson, he could have a Cam like rookie year but it's more likely that he plays tougher match-ups and closer games where there aren't 2 garbage time TDs. 
Good post. Alex smith faced tough QB matchups like the vaunted NE D as well as the Houston D. The others were mediocre to lower end.

 
A lot of fans assume a QB is a god and he does it all on his own. A good team can make a QB. Someone remind me how the Chiefs finished the season last year?  The Kelce injury is a concern and injuries to other key players could derail this team. But right now the Chiefs are for real and Smith is elite. This Chargers fan is pulling for them. 

 
wasnt alex considered the worst starting qb a few years ago?
His QB ratings in KC:

2013 - 89.1 (OC Doug Pederson) Also Reid's first year following Romeo Crennel firing.

2014 - 93.4 (OC Doug Pederson)

2015 - 95.4 (OC Brad Childress, Matt Nagy)

2016 - 91.2 (OC Matt Nagy)

If you are talking 2013, then maybe we see a reason?

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I said it before the season started, I think he has a great season.  I think he's trying to prove to his team and the rest of the league that he's a great QB and should be starting for a while.  The Chiefs drafting a QB this year must have lit a fire for him because he's playing differently than he has in the past.


ChuckLiddell said:
He is going to be expensive, in demand, and will want a long term deal.  Kind of a funky situation when you just used a first round pick on his replacement.  I guess they could franchise him?


gianmarco said:
He's this year's version of 2016 Matt Ryan.
Or 2004 Drew Brees. 

He won't have the same career going forward of course.

 
Ilov80s said:
we have seen 12 years of Smith and he's never played like this. It's really hard to imagine it carry at this clip. 
For some reason, I thought of Gannon joining the Gruden era Raiders as an example of a late-career QB having an offensive explosion where a solid QB meets talented offensive weapons meets offensive scheme. 

 
Currently ranked #2 and is in my starting lineup for the 3rd week in a row. He’s fire right now!

Tex

 
For some reason, I thought of Gannon joining the Gruden era Raiders as an example of a late-career QB having an offensive explosion where a solid QB meets talented offensive weapons meets offensive scheme. 
Yeah, that is a good comp. Of course Smith has been in this Andy Reid system for awhile. It is certainly not impossible for Alex Smith to continue at this pace- just more unlikely. 

 
mnmplayer said:
I've watched every snap of kc. if you shovel pass the ball to Kelce for less than a yard and he runs for 25 yard TD that means stat wise he threw a 25 yard TD, but skill wise he basically handed the ball off. Are you saying he didn't do this to Kelce twice and to a WR at least once on a jet sweep?
Isn't a jet sweep considered a rushing play?

 
Focusing on Smith allegedly being a guy who just throws short shovel pass TDS is so off base for a number of reasons. For one, for a shovel to even work you need the QB to help sell misdirection to open up gaps in the line for a play like that to be successful. Good/great NFL QBs are able to look off defenders, run fakes and misdirections, and look one way and pass in another - all skills that I’ve personally seen Smith employ in games this year to help move the ball based on his own action/ability. And there are many starting QBs today who lack this skill.

Smith isn’t elite like Brady or Rodgers in terms of his overall skill set, but he is 100% an above average QB who can win games with the right weapons around him.

Been a believer in Smith since his fantastic showing with with 49ers when he put that team on his shoulders and led them to the NFC championship game. Always thought he got a raw deal being replaced by Kaepernick. 

He is not a guy like Brady who can gamecall and audible victories with second hand talent, raising the level of the entire team.

But he is a super solid QB with the ability - with the right weapons - to be a Top 10 QB talent, which he   is showing now.

 
It might be. In shotgun its a forward pass to the guy in motion.
Yeah you're really stretching here. Is Alex Smith an elite QB going forward? Maybe not, but he's playing at an elite level right now. There's really not much debate on this there unless you really want to exagerate to make a point. I watched all his highlights from each week on youTube, and as I suspected from memory your claims hold no water. Almost all of his TD passes were outstanding throws (or at the very least "normal" passing plays) I saw Brees throw a shovel pass to Kamara for a TD, that should not invalidate the rest of his season.

 
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Yeah you're really stretching here. Is Alex Smith an elite QB going forward? Maybe not, but he's playing at an elite level right now. There's really not much debate on this there unless you really want to exagerate to make a point. I watched all his highlights from each week on youTube, and as I suspected from memory your claims hold no water. Almost all of his TD passes were outstanding throws (or at the very least "normal" passing plays) I saw Brees throw a shovel pass to Kamara for a TD, that should not invalidate the rest of his season.
I wouldn't even humor him anymore. Sounds like he's a little sour after the Week 1 game.

I'm believing Alex can keep this up throughout the remainder of the year. He's not TD dependent and the offense is just clicking so well. His schedule isn't anything that scares me. I had an offer of Dak for him straight up which I declined. As of this moment I consider anybody aside from Rodgers, Brady and Brees to be a downgrade from Alex. He may not be an elite QB, but he is playing at an elite level now with no reason to believe he will slow down (except historical trends doing him no favors).

 
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I wouldn't even humor him anymore. Sounds like he's a little sour after the Week 1 game.

I'm believing Alex can keep this up throughout the remainder of the year. He's not TD dependent and the offense is just clicking so well. His schedule isn't anything that scares me. I had an offer of Dak for him straight up which I declined. As of this moment I consider anybody aside from Rodgers, Brady and Brees to be a downgrade from Alex. He may not be an elite QB, but he is playing at an elite level now with no reason to believe he will slow down (except historical trends doing him no favors).
I don't own him anywhere but I always felt he never really got the credit that he deserved. He's finally surrounded with some legit weapons and he's smart enough, accurate enough and gutsy enough to take advantage of them. Of course when you have no downfield weapons, you are going to dink and dunk mostly.

 

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