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RB Rashaad Penny, PHI (3 Viewers)

 Rashaad Penny (Sea) — Outside of the Ravens’ taking Hayden Hurst at No. 25 overall, the Seahawks’ coming back two picks later and selecting Rashaad Penny at No. 27 was the second-most shocking storyline amongst skill position players in the first-round of the NFL Draft. The Seahawks’ coveted Penny so much that they “would have taken him at No. 18 overall,” per GM John Schneider. With so much capital invested in Penny, it’s clear the ‘Hawks want to get back to running the football and have supreme confidence Penny can be a foundation back. Whether that works or not remains to be seen. Last year, only the Dolphins and Lions opened up fewer yards before first contact per attempt than the Seahawks. Nevertheless, at San Diego State Penny obliterated his competition regardless of the defensive front and was the only running back in the class to post above-average Yards Created per attempt figures against both stacked (5.31) and neutral boxes (5.79). Penny was also explosive in between the tackles as his 5.90 YC/A on inside carries is fifth-best in Yards Created history behind Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Ezekiel Elliott in that order. Penny also finished with average to above-average figures in missed tackles forced per carry via speed (0.11), elusiveness (0.11) and power (0.18) on his 102 sampled carries. Penny will have to work to become a better asset on passing downs – he averaged just 1.26-receptions per game in his final two seasons and his 73% pass protection execution rate is slightly below collegiate average (76%). Still, with so much invested draft capital and little competition on the roster besides 2017 seventh-rounder Chris Carson and oft-injured CJ Prosise, Penny is set up for a monster workload in year one.
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https://www.fantasyguru.com/articles/yards-created-2018-rb-post-draft-breakdown

 
Safest rookie this year besides Saquon Barkley. Think about it, the Seahawks are absolute magicians at the Runningback Position the past few years. Thomas Rawls was undrafted and Chris Carson was taken in the 7th Round. Christine Michael was cut from the Seahawks, came back and put up huge numbers.

If somehow Penny busts as a First Rounder, it will be downright comical for the Seahawks.

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
Safest rookie this year besides Saquon Barkley. Think about it, the Seahawks are absolute magicians at the Runningback Position the past few years.
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They've drafted RBs with 1/6 of their total draft picks over the past three years and are PRAYING that they finally got one right.

 
Seattle used to be the team with highest run to pass ratio in the league.  People can say the offensive line might be better but the defense has changed drastically.  I don't think they will use their new young running back as much as they will want to.  The scoreboard won't let them. 

 
I can't get past the eyeball test with this guy. The stride looks odd, as well as upper-body to lower-body ratio. It's like his legs are too short for his torso. Gonna pass at 1.03 and hope that a healthy Prosise is better.

ETA: Or maybe the oddities are a mismatch that works to Penny's advantage at the NFL level. Big man with a lower center of gravity comes to mind.

I'm stumped.

 
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I can't believe how low Bloom has him ranked in his latest rookie rankings. It's one of the few times I completely disagree with Sigmund. Penny is a stud. 

 
Alluro said:
I can't believe how low Bloom has him ranked in his latest rookie rankings. It's one of the few times I completely disagree with Sigmund. Penny is a stud. 
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Its possible that Bloom is looking at the larger picture  Chance he's down on the Seahawks pass defense which could mean more passing on offense  Pass blocking by rooks is usually viewed in poor taste  "Everyone has a plan until that first punch to the face"  Sticking to a game plan which has lead your team to be down two scores is not gonna win many games

 
I think Bloom is way too low on Penny.  Even predraft.  Seattle is going to waste it's first rounder.  That's a lot of draft capital.  Penny probably will have 2-3 years of a leash to show what he can do.

 
Penny caught 18 of 24 passes thrown his but only dropped one. It’s such a small sample size but if we’re going to judge him one this sample size then a drop rate of 4% is not bad. His drop rate is better than Barkley (7.7%), Freeman (11.1%), Jones (6.7%), Kelly (6.7%), and Michel (6.7%).

Pass protection, in 2017 he allowed two sacks and seven hurries on 66 pass-blocking snaps.

IMHO these are not numbers that would cause me to pass on him.

Tex

 
bostonfred said:
1.2 for me but not by a lot
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1.2-1.7 are all pretty close this year. No two rookie drafts will look the same.

As the second back taken, Penny's the common sense pick for 1.02 and his coach has already called him a 3 down back. The other issues with his team are what they are and can change in the future, but for the immediate, looks like Penny is the safest bet (after Barkley) to get bunches of carries and catches. 

 
Gandalf said:
I think Bloom is way too low on Penny.  Even predraft.  Seattle is going to waste it's first rounder.  That's a lot of draft capital.  Penny probably will have 2-3 years of a leash to show what he can do.
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yeah, I think theyre just done experimenting with trying to replace a workhorse with guys who physically cant take it. When theyre healthy, the Sea Rbs put up OK numbers. But theyre never healthy. So hopefully this guy can stay healthy and truly be a workhorse. Would mean a ton for FF, even with a turrble OL theyre gonna feed him and try and give Russ a chance

 
Dismattle said:
Its possible that Bloom is looking at the larger picture  Chance he's down on the Seahawks pass defense which could mean more passing on offense  Pass blocking by rooks is usually viewed in poor taste  "Everyone has a plan until that first punch to the face"  Sticking to a game plan which has lead your team to be down two scores is not gonna win many games
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Ok, the Seahawks have a bunch of 2/3 year guys, how much more experience do they really have pass blocking and who’s really better? Fact is none of them are known commodities as far as that is concerned I’m not worried about it. The oline may be bad this year but for dynasty I’m happy to take him. 

 
Six Takeaways From Seahawks 2018 Rookie Minicamp

Excerpt:







1. First-round pick Rashaad Penny impressed as a pass-catcher.

Rashaad Penny led the nation in rushing last year, piling up 2,248 yards and 23 touchdowns for San Diego State, and while the Seahawks made him their first-round pick in large part to help the ground game, Penny also showed this weekend that he can be a weapon in the passing game as well.

“He caught the ball beautifully, really,” Carroll said. “He can do whatever we need to do in the throwing game. Schotty (Brian Schottenheimer) did a nice job of mixing some stuff in so we could see him doing different route concepts, so we had a real good variety of things that we looked at in and out of the backfield. With a couple of exceptions, he did a really good job. So that’s a real good sign. We’re going to work real hard with his pass protection and make sure that he’s up to speed there. We’d like to see if we can make him available to us on all three downs. Kind of like we use Chris (Carson).”

While pass protection wasn’t one of Penny’s strengths in college, Carroll is confident they will get the running back up to speed in that element of the game.

“It’s a really interesting phase of the game,” he said. “The running backs who have not been called on to pass protect a lot, they’ll at times look like they are way out of whack with the pass pro, until they realize what it is—the physical part of what the blocking really calls for. Just through being dedicated to making sure he’s ready for the season, he’ll get a ton of work in camp. He won’t have any problems with it at all. He’s got a great body for doing it. He’s a tough kid. So it’s just a matter of getting in the reps, understand how physical they can be, the different types of styles of rushes they get. It really comes along rather quickly. Some guys always have the knack for being the tough guys in that situation, and we’ll find out about that. I don’t know that yet. But I’m not concerned that we’ll have enough time to get him ready to pass pro because he’s going to work real hard at it in camp.”
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King of the Jungle said:
I relate BS to the adjectives of unimaginative and boring. Most of my opinion derives from his stint with the Rams.
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There was nothing good about the Rams offense while Fisher was in charge and BS got canned for a guy who was supposed to use Austin more creatively.

Just looking at his coaching history it does look better prior to the Rams.

Extremely run heavy with the Jets which is part of why Fisher hired him for the Rams I would assume.

 
RustyFA4 said:
What did the first three picks look like?  Why did you value him over the guys you passed over?
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Barkely

Guice

DJ Moore  :loco:

Penny

I debated taking Michel or Chubb instead of Penny, but I can't get passed the fact that the Penny was the first RB selected, the Seahawks said they would have taken him with the 18th pick, and all they've done is talk about him being a 3-down back. Those things are more important to me than my attempt at scouting RB's and trying to pick which one will be more successful in the NFL. I'll leave it to the experts.

 
kutta said:
Barkely

Guice

DJ Moore  :loco:

Penny

I debated taking Michel or Chubb instead of Penny, but I can't get passed the fact that the Penny was the first RB selected, the Seahawks said they would have taken him with the 18th pick, and all they've done is talk about him being a 3-down back. Those things are more important to me than my attempt at scouting RB's and trying to pick which one will be more successful in the NFL. I'll leave it to the experts.
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I did the exact same thing in two different dynasty drafts. Passed and considered the same two players. And used the same logic as you. I’m happy with Penny. I think we made the right call. 

 
kutta said:
I debated taking Michel or Chubb instead of Penny, but I can't get passed the fact that the Penny was the first RB selected, the Seahawks said they would have taken him with the 18th pick, and all they've done is talk about him being a 3-down back. Those things are more important to me than my attempt at scouting RB's and trying to pick which one will be more successful in the NFL. I'll leave it to the experts.
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Rhythmdoctor said:
I did the exact same thing in two different dynasty drafts. Passed and considered the same two players. And used the same logic as you. I’m happy with Penny. I think we made the right call. 
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Pretty much the same here, logic used by Kutta is essentially same logic I used except you could substitute Jones for Chubb.

I had picks 2 and 3 so it set up ideal for me. I figured with one pick I'd take the guy my scouting eye told me was the best RB available, Guice. The other pick I went against what my scouting eye told me and for the reasons laid out by Kutta took Penny at 3, when I had Penny as my #6 ranked RB predraft.

I had another league with pick 2 and nothing close but when it was just one pick nothing was shaking me off Guice.

 
Took him at 1.05 in my Zealots league (Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Rojo, then Penny) and 38th overall in a dynasty startup, so I guess I'm on the train.

I trusted Carroll coach speak once before and it got me Russell Wilson in basically all of my leagues, so I'm trusting him here. Don't burn me, Carroll.

 
kutta said:
Barkely

Guice

DJ Moore  :loco:

Penny

I debated taking Michel or Chubb instead of Penny, but I can't get passed the fact that the Penny was the first RB selected, the Seahawks said they would have taken him with the 18th pick, and all they've done is talk about him being a 3-down back. Those things are more important to me than my attempt at scouting RB's and trying to pick which one will be more successful in the NFL. I'll leave it to the experts.
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Fair strategy.  I suppose most of us occasionally default to this position when choosing between players rated so closely; however, I am uncertain Penny was the RB2 on most NFL teams' boards, so I am not sure there was a consensus between the experts.  Moreover, employing this strategy of deferring to the experts would put Guice as your 7th best RB, and I am confident he is going to be drafted earlier than that in essentially every fantasy draft this summer.

I am not suggesting Penny is not the best RB in this draft not named Saquon Barkley.  I have him below Barkley and Guice, in a tier together with Ronald Jones II, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

I thought the Seahawks reached a bit for Penny in the draft, although he is arguably the most complete and accomplished of this tier of backs.  As a senior, Penny rushed for a whopping 2,248 yards (7.8 yards per carry) with 23 touchdowns, and he added 19 receptions for 135 yards and 2 TDs.  Penny is a big back (5'11", 220 lbs) who runs with patience and agile feet, and he displays soft hands and an ability to run decent routes.  It is easy to fall in love with his highlight reel, even if it was against lesser competition (Mountain West Conference).  We have seen other recent small-school backs such as David Johnson and Kareem Hunt excel at the NFL level, and Penny, who was drafted considerably higher than either of those two, hopes to join that list.  Penny’s reliable hands, patience and vision earn him high marks, and he has a clear path to a prominent role, but concerns about his pass blocking and ability to grasp an NFL playbook, together with a struggling offensive line give some cause to tap the brakes.  Seattle’s offensive line was historically awful in 2017.  Offensive Line Coach Tom Cable was sent packing, and they added Right Guard DJ Fluker, but this line could still struggle to open up holes for the running game, and the Seahawks will put a premium on pass protection skills from their RB.  The Seahawks have indicated they intend to use Penny in the return game, and his initial fantasy value may not live up to his draft status, but for dynasty purposes, Penny has a very bright future.

 
Rashaad Penny - RB -  Seahawks

New Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer estimates he's keeping "70 percent" of the team's old system.

Schottenheimer has been talking all week about a fire-and-brimstone approach, digging deep for run game clichés. Nevertheless, he says he doesn't want to blow things up. "It’d be crazy to ask some of the guys to learn a completely new system," Schottenheimer said. "I’m excited about some of the things that we’ve added both in the run and pass game. I think that’ll be something that is noticeably different. It’s a comprehensive approach." The Seahawks averaged 561 pass attempts over the past two seasons after averaging 442 the first four years of the Russell Wilson era. 2018 might find itself somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.

Source: Seattle Times

May 31 - 1:41 PM
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Tanner9919 said:
let's just say it's far from promising, with plenty of less than ideal, more middle of the road, ho-hum offensive stats ..
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massraider said:
He sure hasn't had great talent to work with.  Tough to get a handle on if he's any good or not.  
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Truth in both of those comments.  I'm not impressed with him but he managed to spend his entire 9 years as NFL OC with some stinky talent. The good news to me is, like his dad, his offenses did a good job of mazimizing the RB talent. A little light on throwing to the RB's but game has changed from 2007 when he got his first gig and his offense in general had poor QB play and were low volume passing teams.

He had LT and SJAX at RB but got both at end stage of their careers and coerced as good a seasons out of them as I thought possible. Thomas Jones was the best RB he had and he had him for 3 highly successful Thomas Jones seasons, averaged 1,277 rushing yards in 3 seasons. He got Zac Stacy to look good for a year, Shonn Greene to 1,000 yards and had Tre Mason looking like up and coming prospect.  Guy had nothing to work with.

One thing I found interesting and that no one seems to think is worth discussing is that he spent a year as OC at Georgia so he had Michel and Chubb for a full year. Maybe his vote means nothing but just found it interesting that SEA preferred Penny over two RB's who would both go in next few picks over someone the OC worked with for a year.

 
menobrown said:
One thing I found interesting and that no one seems to think is worth discussing is that he spent a year as OC at Georgia so he had Michel and Chubb for a full year. Maybe his vote means nothing but just found it interesting that SEA preferred Penny over two RB's who would both go in next few picks over someone the OC worked with for a year.
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 I find that very interesting.

 
kutta said:
menobrown said:
One thing I found interesting and that no one seems to think is worth discussing is that he spent a year as OC at Georgia so he had Michel and Chubb for a full year. Maybe his vote means nothing but just found it interesting that SEA preferred Penny over two RB's who would both go in next few picks over someone the OC worked with for a year.
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 I find that very interesting.
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Same here. I wasn't aware of that. I looked it up and found this:

  1. Schottenheimer was OC at Georgia in 2015. That means when he got there, he looked at all the film from 2014, when Chubb had 219/1547/14 (7.1 ypc) rushing and 18/213/2 (11.8 ypr) receiving in 13 games as a freshman. That was his best season.
  2. Then Chubb had 91/745/7 (8.2 ypc) rushing and 4/32/1 (8.0 ypr) receiving in 5 games before going down for the season in game 6. That included 20/146/1 (7.3 ypc) vs. Alabama the week before his injury, although that was in a blowout loss, so I suppose the performance could have been inflated a bit.
  3. With Chubb's injury, Schottenheimer turned to Michel, who finished the season with 218/1136/8 (5.2 ypc) rushing and 26/270/3 (10.4 ypr) receiving. 2017 was Michel's best season, but he was very good in 2015.
So Schottenheimer should have been very familiar with both players. We already knew that the Seahawks really like Penny, and this seems to be another data point that reinforces that.

 
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