Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Dr. Dan

Josh Jacobs - Raiders RB

Recommended Posts

Jacobs looks like a solid if not elite prospect. He has starting back talent, inarguably so with a shared load.

To me, his trajectory relies on three things:

1) He has yet to play a down in the pros. You never know until you know. 

RISK: Medium-Low. Jacobs is not in the same league prospect-wise as Barkley, but I think his style, skills, and proven ability at the college level will translate.

2) He is unproven handling a 3-down load

RISK: Medium. Not sure Gruden's offensive philosophy dictates needing a 3-down back (he seemed much more attuned to a Thunder/Lightning, more dynamic attack), but with Jacobs' ability with both his feet and his hands, he can be used situationally for all 3 downs. As for how he handles the wear and tear of playing against the big boys? Again, you never know until you know, but that downside is also tempered by not coming into the league with a lot of wear on the tires already.

3) The Raiders O-line was a complete sieve made out of hot, stinking garbage last year, with a completely inept, incompetent, bungling, maladroit o-line coach in Cable. 

RISK: Medium-High. To me, this is the biggest issue for Jacobs' success -- in the NFL and fantasy-wise. Hudson, Jackson, and Trent Brown look to be a solid if not spectacular anchor middle-to-right (still some questions about whether Brown's last year was an anomaly or a trend), but Good and Miller on the left side is still shaky. Cable loves Z-block, and Jacobs one-cut style seems to suit it. But this t me is the biggest impediment to Jacobs' success. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Finally got to watch more tape on him and the more I watch the more I'm convinced he's the 1.01 over Harry (or anyone else). There were plays where he lost yardage, but that was only when his O-line was completely blown up, like by Jeffrey Simmons, a beast. Or other times where his guards completely whiffed on blocks. Bama might have one of the best lines in the game, but every line makes mistakes and it was rarely Jacobs' fault when he was tackled for a loss. Sometimes he would lose a yard, but a lesser back would have lost 3-4. It reminds me a bit of Leveon coming out of Mich St. Their line would consistently put him in position to be tackled for a loss or at the line, and he'd earn a little extra, and Jacobs does the same thing.

I like his game speed, his ability to break tackles, the power he can generate (like pulling 2 defenders with him for a first down), and I really like his blocking. His blocking will be what allows him to be on the field for all 3 downs. He definitely needs to work on his route running, but I think that he's capable of being one of the top pass catching backs in the league and he is a solid hands catcher, rarely bringing the ball into his body for a catch.  

My favorite play I've seen so far was against Miss St where he was goal to go, he runs forward and 2 defenders come up to block him, he has a jump cut that makes both of them fall down and he powers through an arm tackle to get a TD. It was a testament to his drive and agility.  There was a 2nd play against Miss St that was great, and he lost 1-2 yards. The QB gets flushed so he blocks, then moves up to catch the screen. The defense reads it so they're ready as soon as the pass is thrown, but it's thrown off target and Jacobs is able to reach out and snag it one-handed. Then he gets crushed and holds onto it. It would have been better for Bama if he had dropped it instead of losing the 1-2 yards, but that pass catching ability is impressive. 

The main downside I see with him is also one of his assets, his physicality. He has a tendency to use his head as a battering ram, leading with his shoulder, but also getting his helmet in play, and that just won't last long term. If he can adjust this and keep his head safe, and sometimes avoid trying to land the big hit on defenders, I think that will add to his career longevity.  I was nervous about his lack of play in college, but when you look at the other RBs that Bama had to offer, and his skills at blocking, it makes more sense.  There are numerous plays with 2 RBs on the field and he's used similar to a FB leading the charge, often for big gains. It's not how an NFL coach would use a player with those skills, but it worked for Bama. 

I am fairly confident that he'll be a top 15 RB this season and a potential top 10 back for several seasons to come (assuming he stays healthy). 

Edited by steelers1080
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

Bama might have one of the best lines in the game, but every line makes mistakes and it was rarely Jacobs' fault when he was tackled for a loss. Sometimes he would lose a yard, but a lesser back would have lost 3-4. It reminds me a bit of Leveon coming out of Mich St. Their line would consistently put him in position to be tackled for a loss or at the line, and he'd earn a little extra, and Jacobs does the same thing.

Josh Jacobs' Le'Veon Bell-like skill-set

Matt Waldman's RSP Film Room No.139: RB Joshua Jacobs

LaDainian Tomlinson: How can Raiders get the most out of RB Josh Jacobs in 2019?

Nate Burleson explains why Josh Jacobs is the 'most complete' running back prospect

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

Raiders.com correspondent breaks down film with Josh Jacobs

It's all highlights, but it helps show what he's capable of, and he shows the ability to remember all of his plays and admit when he makes mistakes. Not going to change any minds I don't think, but helped reaffirm him as the 1.01 for me. 

Its interesting to hear Kennedy ask Jacobs what he is thinking and seeing on each of these plays.

I wish more teams would do something like this with their rookies. Its not like they would be giving up anything of their teams game plan talking about college plays.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Raiders rookie RB Josh Jacobs sits out first practice

Excerpt:

Quote

ALAMEDA, Calif. — Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs donned a No. 28 white jersey, black shorts and white shoes when stretching Tuesday with teammates before the start of practice.

His practice never began.

The chance to see the team’s second of three first-round picks participate in organized team activities (OTAs) will wait. The exact reason for the former Alabama running back’s departure is unclear, but it appeared to be planned. Doug Martin handled most of the starter reps.

“We have a lot of guys that are on different programs right now,” coach Jon Gruden said. “We’re not playing for a while. Jacobs will be back, if not late this week, early next week. He’s taking part in the walkthroughs. We’re fast tracking him to be ready.”

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If nothing drastic happens I’ll be taking him at 1.1 this summer, so I guess it’s time to :blackdot:this thread...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The issue I have with Jacobs is that because he was in a rotation he always looked fresh in games. I worry that the film guys are overrating him because of this

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

So he hurt himself stretching?  Definitely 1.01 material...

Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle

 

🚨🚨📢📢🚩🚩

Edited by Dr. Dan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle

 

🚨🚨📢📢🚩🚩

It’s almost like his use case and injury history might mean something.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

So he hurt himself stretching?  Definitely 1.01 material...

Where did you see this? I haven't seen this anywhere. 

 

On 5/22/2019 at 10:35 AM, Faust said:

The exact reason for the former Alabama running back’s departure is unclear, but it appeared to be planned

This is all I've seen reported, didn't take part in practice, but that it was planned. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let other people worry about  about not practicing in a May OTA, keep your eye on the prize:

3. Josh Jacobs: Offensive rookie of the year?

I don't think it's any shock that the expectation is that Josh Jacobs will be used a lot. But I was surprised when, after I asked Jacobs about his expected passing-game usage with the Oakland Raiders, he told me he's been lining up in the slot and even outside. "Oh yeah," he said after I gave him a look. "They got me all over the place." Jacobs told me that coaches have told him they expect him to be in the offensive rookie of the year conversation because of how much they are going to place on him.

 

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26800322/fantasy-football-nflpa-rookie-premiere-takeaways-too-low-kyler-murray

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

IIRC Cadilac William's barely did anything during otas and training camp after being selected in the 1st round by Gruden and the Bucs at that time.

This had no bearing on how Gruden used William's in the regular season. William's got a lot of action once the regular season started but got injured after a 40 touch game week 3.

Edited by Biabreakable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Didnt he also sit out the combine because of a pulled muscle

 

🚨🚨📢📢🚩🚩

What’s the diagnosis, doc? Steroid usage?

Edited by Concept Coop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What’s the diagnosis, doc? Steroid usage?

funny

guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

funny

guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me

Where was it reported that he was sitting due to a pulled muscle?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

funny

guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me

Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys? 

I don’t worry much about it at all since he did more in one season than Jacobs did his entire career.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Henderson has had hammy issues each of the last two seasons. How worried should we be about these guys? 

A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1

Edited by Dr. Dan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1

I see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

A guy who has had 2 unconfirmed muscle strains within 4 months is alarming to me. Especially when people are blindly taking him 1.1

Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere. 

Just cash out while you still can. 

  • Laughing 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere. 

This.  It’s idiotic.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Isn't this the key word? You're assuming it's a muscle strain, where has that been reported? I can't find a mention of it anywhere. 

Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for later

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, my post was tongue-in-cheek.  But Gruden did say he was not practicing after stretching but that he was participating in walk throughs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

How far are we dropping him with this news? Is 1.05 too high, now? How likely is this to be a chronic issue?

Edited by Concept Coop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for later

Maybe he had the runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yep. They dont have to report injuries right now, so we will never know, but it's quite obvious he missed practice for a reason; he didnt get all dressed to stretch and go inside. but to each their own. bookmarking for later

Right.  But he could’ve had the s h i t s for all anyone knows, yet you spew nonsense about two muscle pulls in months RED FLAG!  And the first was before the combine, which very possibly was his agent advising him not to participate in the combine (which if the case, was sage advise).   FFS.  

And bookmarking this for what?  If he pulls a muscle in October, you’re going to bump your post and say “see, I told you he had a muscle pull when he sat out of the first day of OTAs back in May!”  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Tool said:

Maybe he had the runs.

Sure, maybe. Then just say he was ill. Dont say "well everyone is on a different program" give me a break. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

IIRC Cadilac William's barely did anything during otas and training camp after being selected in the 1st round by Gruden and the Bucs at that time.

This had no bearing on how Gruden used William's in the regular season. William's got a lot of action once the regular season started but got injured after a 40 touch game week 3.

Never mind I was wrong. Williams had 12 rushing attempts and 1 reception in the preseason 2005.

It was Benson and and Ronnie Brown who held out during training camp not Williams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

funny

guy seems to have had 2 uncomfirmed pulled muscles within the last 4 months. That's a red flag to me

He also has a half dozen unconfirmed murders to his name.

Probably an unconfirmed streaking incident.

And, while no one can confirm it, he might also have an unconfirmed habit of tossing macaroni noodles at the neighborhood cats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

How far are we dropping him with this news? Is 1.05 too high, now? How likely is this to be a chronic issue?

With these injury issues, he is off my board.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

He also has a half dozen unconfirmed murders to his name.

Probably an unconfirmed streaking incident.

And, while no one can confirm it, he might also have an unconfirmed habit of tossing macaroni noodles at the neighborhood cats.

Whether the recent injury is news at all is sort of irrelevant. What is relevant is that people have been brushing one more thing aside to make him the top back without even acknowledging his collegiate career was littered with injuries while he was a part time back. He made Fred Taylor look like Emmitt Smith. But let’s put all that aside and think he’s going to gloriously get 300+ touches.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bojang0301 said:

Whether the recent injury is news at all is sort of irrelevant. What is relevant is that people have been brushing one more thing aside to make him the top back without even acknowledging his collegiate career was littered with injuries while he was a part time back. He made Fred Taylor look like Emmitt Smith. But let’s put all that aside and think he’s going to gloriously get 300+ touches.

I didn't suggest otherwise, don't drag me into your unabashed hatred for the guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Some very familiar historical names on the list below, plus some interesting comparisons

**********************

 

link

Josh Jacobs, Alabama
BackCAST Score: -39.3%
RecIndex: +0.02
Similar Historical Prospects: Chris Perry, Julius Jones

If you have been following the 2019 draft prospects closely, you might have thought that we had forgotten Josh Jacobs, who many consider to be the best running back in this class. Jacobs' BackCAST is unusually low for a running back who could go in the first two rounds. 

Below is a chart of the running back prospects selected in the first two rounds of the draft who have the lowest BackCAST projections:

Worst Backcast for 1st/2nd round RBs 1998-2019

Joe Montgomery -73.7%

Kenny Irons -63.2%

Brandon Jackson -60.6%

John Avery -46.8%

Chris Henry -45.5%

Josh Jacobs -39.3%

Julius Jones -38.2%

Travis Henry -35.1%

Montario Hardesty -33.0%

Christine Michael -26.3%

Ameer Abdullah -21.9%

DeShaun Foster -14.7%

Mike Cloud -12.8%

Chris Perry -12.7%

Montee Ball -9.5%

That is not a great list. So why is BackCAST so down on Jacobs?

When a running back fails to even lead his own team in rushing attempts, it is typically a major red flag. Here, Jacobs had fewer carries than his teammate, Damien Harris, whom BackCAST does not particularly like either. In terms of yards, Jacobs was not even the second-leading rusher on his own team. That distinction goes to sophomore Najee Harris, who had three fewer carries but 140 more rushing yards. Of the top 50 most productive running backs in BackCAST's database, only one running back -- Alvin Kamara -- had a worse AOEPS than Jacobs.

That leads to another issue with Jacobs' prospects -- his relative inefficiency. Last year, Jacobs averaged only 5.33 yards per carry, which was a full half-yard per carry less than Damien Harris and nearly a yard and a half per carry less than Najee Harris. Indeed, Damien Harris is a similar prospect to Jacobs, but he edges Jacobs out in BackCAST because he had a larger share of Alabama's carries and a higher average yards per carry.

To top it off, Jacobs appears to be rather slow. Jacobs did not run at the combine, but reports from his pro day suggest that he, at the fastest, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.60 seconds. That is not a time that will doom a running back to failure, but slow college running backs who succeed at the NFL level typically have more college production than Jacobs. Unfortunately for Jacobs, his BackCAST numbers are simply poor overall.

 

Edited by Bronco Billy
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

I didn't suggest otherwise, don't drag me into your unabashed hatred for the guy.

🙄

Ya certainly no reason to not like a guy who had multiple injuries with no 1000 yard season who was then a sub replacement athlete who everyone makes excuse after excuse after excuse for. I didn’t drag anyone into anything. Sorry for being a voice in the dark for everyone’s 1.01. Sheep gonna sheep though. 

ETA: So unabashed, I begrudgingly had him in my top tier at the end of the day. Just because I wouldn’t want him until Henderson, Montgomery and Sanders are off the board make me such a horrible and biased poster, amirite?

Edited by Bojang0301
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

he might also have an unconfirmed habit of tossing macaroni noodles at the neighborhood cats.

who among us hasn't tossed a few noodles at cats?

Edited by Dr. Octopus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

🙄

Ya certainly no reason to not like a guy who had multiple injuries with no 1000 yard season who was then a sub replacement athlete who everyone makes excuse after excuse after excuse for. I didn’t drag anyone into anything. Sorry for being a voice in the dark for everyone’s 1.01. Sheep gonna sheep though. 

ETA: So unabashed, I begrudgingly had him in my top tier at the end of the day. Just because I wouldn’t want him until Henderson, Montgomery and Sanders are off the board make me such a horrible and biased poster, amirite?

I said nothing about you being a horrible nor biased poster.  You have unabashed hatred for the guy, you've made that clear, and I'm not interested in debating him with you.  Taking a guy at good value doesn't change any facts, it just means you recognize good value and a chance to flip him for a profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Some very familiar historical names on the list below, plus some interesting comparisons 

**********************

 

link

Josh Jacobs, Alabama
BackCAST Score: -39.3%
RecIndex: +0.02
Similar Historical Prospects: Chris Perry, Julius Jones

If you have been following the 2019 draft prospects closely, you might have thought that we had forgotten Josh Jacobs, who many consider to be the best running back in this class. Jacobs' BackCAST is unusually low for a running back who could go in the first two rounds. 

Below is a chart of the running back prospects selected in the first two rounds of the draft who have the lowest BackCAST projections:

 

I find these kinds of composites very interesting.  I didn't see any of their historical data other than the small table of bad scores, is there one available?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Of the top 50 most productive running backs in BackCAST's database, only one running back -- Alvin Kamara -- had a worse AOEPS than Jacobs.

You had me until this. Any stat that ranks Kamara worst out of 50 has to be garbage.

I do admit the first list does look concerning though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LawFitz said:

You had me until this. Any stat that ranks Kamara worst out of 50 has to be garbage.

I do admit the first list does look concerning though.

 

Use or discards facts anyway you choose.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

I find these kinds of composites very interesting.  I didn't see any of their historical data other than the small table of bad scores, is there one available?

 

Looks like they have at least 21 years of data evaluating all RBs in each draft - but you’re welcome to ask them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

who among us hasn't tossed a few noodles at cats?

Euphemism?

  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Use or discards facts anyway you choose.  

In fairness, I wouldn't refer to a subjectively-created predictive model as 'facts'. From what I can tell, the model places heavy emphasis on YPC adjusted for total # of carries (seemingly without adjusting for defensive competition), playing time %, and weight-adjusted 40 times. These are all already noted 'short-comings' of Jacobs, with at least reasonable rationalizations for each that have been thoroughly discussed upthread.

That said, thanks for posting it. 'Twas and interesting read, and something I'll keep an eye on going forward. Looks like the model only likes Dalvin Henderson this year. :)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/backcast-2017

Quote

BackCAST is expressed in terms of the percentage that the running back is projected to over-perform or under-perform the average running back prospect. For example, a player who has a +50.0% BackCAST score is expected to be 1.5 times as productive as the average drafted running back. Conversely, a player with a BackCAST score of -50.0% is expected to be only half as productive as the average drafted running back.

BackCAST also includes "RecIndex," which measures whether the player is likely to be a ground-and-pound two-down back, a player who catches passes out of the backfield more often than he takes handoffs, or something in between. In short, RecIndex measures the likelihood that the player records a disproportionately high or low number of receiving yards versus his rushing yards. The two factors that are significant in predicting RecIndex are receiving yards per game in college and weight, as smaller players are more likely to be receiving backs.

...

Alvin Kamara, Tennessee

BackCAST Score: -30.4%
RecIndex: +0.71

Alvin Kamara is not a hopeless case, but it is unusual for a player with this many holes in his BackCAST projection to be rated as a second-round pick by scouts. Kamara had trouble getting carries for the Tennessee Volunteers, posting a -14.2% AOEPS. It would be one thing if Kamara had been stuck behind a particularly talented teammate, but the available evidence does not suggest that Kamara was permanently locked in some sort of Thurman Thomas/Barry Sanders situation (both played for Oklahoma State at the same time). Kamara was the clear second running back behind Jalen Hurd as a sophomore (though, in all fairness, Hurd was considered a possible future high-round draft pick at the time). During Kamara's junior year, Hurd battled injuries and his production cratered, resulting in an abrupt decision to transfer from Tennessee. Even with Hurd out of the picture, Kamara barely edged out sophomore running back and former three-star recruit John Kelly for carries. It certainly could be the case that Tennessee's coaches failed to realize what they had in Kamara and that his NFL career will prove them wrong for failing to give him the rock enough times to shine. However, Kelly was actually more productive than Kamara on a per-carry basis, so Tennessee's coaches were not clearly wrong to platoon their backs.

Other signs that Kamara could be a transcendent talent stuck in a bad situation are just not there. Kamara ran a 4.56-second 40-yard dash at 214 pounds -- those are firmly average numbers. Kamara averaged more than 6 yards per carry, which is good, but not unusual for a back with relatively low attempts, nor is it a number that makes Kamara stand out amongst the running back prospects in this class. Kamara has strong receiving numbers, but that should only get him so far. Would teams spend a second-round pick on a player who was going to be the next Travaris Cadet?

The following table provides the BackCAST and RecIndex numbers for all of the halfback prospects invited to this year's NFL combine.

BackCAST Projections, 2017 Combine Invitees

Name | School | Weight | 40 | AOEPS | Adj Y/A | Rcyds/G | BackCAST | RecIndex

Leonard Fournette | LSU | 240 | 4.51 | 11.8% | 6.22 | 16.4 | +142.2% | -0.01

Dalvin Cook | Florida St. | 210 | 4.49 | 20.7% | 6.50 | 24.6 | +136.0% | 0.61

Joe Mixon | Oklahoma | 228 | 4.45 | 1.9% | 6.16 | 35.8 | +115.7% | 0.90

Brian Hill | Wyoming | 219 | 4.54 | 20.6% | 5.53 | 10.9+ | 84.6% | -0.07

Marlon Mack | South Florida | 213 | 4.50 | 11.5% | 6.16 | 13.8 | +80.8% | 0.10

Christian McCaffrey | Stanford | 202 | 4.48 | 9.1% | 6.21 | 32.8 | +76.2% | 0.99

Samaje Perine | Oklahoma | 233 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 6.02 | 8.9+ | 72.9% | -0.27

Jeremy McNichols | Boise St. | 214 | 4.49 | 8.3% | 5.6 | 132.0+ | 69.5% | 0.86

Elijah McGuire | Louisiana-Lafayette | 214 | 4.53 | 1.9% | 6.06 | 27.3+ | 50.3% | 0.66

D'Onta Foreman | Texas | 233 | 4.58 | -3.4% | 6.26 | 5.4+ | 43.9% | -0.42

Elijah Hood | North Carolina | 232 | 4.59 | 2.0% | 5.89 | 6.4+ | 43.5% | -0.37

Kareem Hunt | Toledo | 216 | 4.62 | 6.0% | 6.32 | 12.6+ | 40.6% | 0.03

Stanley Williams | Kentucky | 212 | 4.51 | -2.9% | 6.41 | 8.8 | +30.1% | -0.10

Aaron Jones | UTEP | 208 | 4.56 | 1.7% | 6.25 | 18.5 | +27.8% | 0.34

Donnel Pumphrey | San Diego St. | 176 | 4.48 | 12.8% | 6.05 | 19.2 | +12.0% | 0.63

James Conner | Pittsburgh | 233 | 4.65 | -1.2% | 5.59 | 10.6 | +9.1% | -0.20

Wayne Gallman | Clemson | 215 | 4.60 | 8.5% | 5.06 | 11.6 | -3.1% | -0.01

Matt Dayes | North Carolina St. | 205 | 4.47 | -5.2% | 5.19 | 20.7 | -22.6% | 0.46

Jamaal Williams | BYU | 210 | 4.59 | 0.1% | 5.37 | 13.2 | -26.0% | 0.10

Alvin Kamara | Tennessee | 214 | 4.56 | -14.2% | 5.69 | 28.5 | -30.4% | 0.71

T.J. Logan | North Carolina | 196 | 4.37 | -10.5% | 5.42 | 13.5 | -31.6% | 0.23

Joe Williams | Utah | 190 | 4.41 | -11.9% | 5.75 | 10.1 | -49.8% | 0.13

Justin Davis | USC | 208 | 4.53 | -9.8% | 5.35 | 9.3 | -54.3% | -0.05

De'Veon Smith | Michigan | 223 | 4.57 | -7.2% | 4.55 | 6.1 | -61.7% | -0.30

Corey Clement | Wisconsin | 220 | 4.68 | -8.9% | 5.37 | 7.2 | -67.7% | -0.24

Christopher Carson | Oklahoma St. | 218 | 4.58 | -16.9% | 5.23 | 14.2 | -71.5% | 0.08

Jahad Thomas | Temple | 190 | 4.62 | 1.2% | 4.62 | 21.7 | -97.0% | 0.62

Rushel Shell | West Virginia | 227 | 4.74 | -10.4% | 4.58 | 9.7 | -100.0% | -0.18

Dare Ogunbowale | Wisconsin | 213 | 4.65 | -17.0% | 4.99 | 12.7 | -100.0% | 0.05

Devine Redding | Indiana | 205 | 4.76 | 1.9% | 4.45 | 7.4 | -100.0% | -0.10

Here's another major miss from 2016: 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/introducing-backcast

Quote

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State

BackCAST Score: +46.2%
RecIndex: -0.04

Ezekiel Elliott is a nice prospect who is probably overrated as a high first-round pick. On the positive side, Elliott has a nice size/speed combination -- he recorded a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at 225 pounds. Elliott also had a great 6.69 yards per attempt for the Ohio State Buckeyes. However, Ohio State's offense was highly prolific during Elliott's stay, and it averaged 5.61 yards per attempt on non-Elliott runs.

Interestingly Elliott's projection also suffers because he only carried the ball on 51 percent of Ohio State's rushing attempts during his junior year, which was his best season. However, Ohio State gave few carries to running backs other than Elliott. Rather, Elliott lost carries to Ohio State's quarterbacks. We actually looked at re-calculating peak rushing percentage by subtracting out quarterback runs to see if it made the model stronger. However, it turns out that subtracting quarterback runs actually makes this factor (and the whole model) much weaker. It's interesting to think about why this might be so. It could be that running backs compete with quarterbacks for rushing attempts in the same way they compete with other running backs, or that rushing in a backfield with a running quarterback could cause the running back's numbers to be overstated in a way not captured by other metrics.

(Also, the rushing totals used here are based on official college stats and thus include sacks as runs, not passes; at some point, depending on how far back we can get clean data, we plan on analyzing these percentages with sacks removed from team rushing totals.)

Given his higher draft projection, Elliott is still probably the best bet to be the best back of this class. However, he lacks the statistical indicators that have been harbingers of elite running backs in the past. Especially given the relatively low value of the running back position in the modern NFL, a team picking in the top ten might be well advised to go in a different direction with its pick.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Looks like they have at least 21 years of data evaluating all RBs in each draft - but you’re welcome to ask them.

Based on what, did I miss something or are you just basing this on 1998 in the chart?  Not busting chops, I would like to see the rest of their data and not just the snippet that supports the theme of their article.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Euphemism?

Of course. The noodles are his penis. Unfortunately, the cat is just a cat. Dr. O is a major perv.

  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Calling Corey Clement a miss is a joke. Corey Clement is not good. That model seems to be pretty decent. Of course there is variance. You can’t control teams doing stupid things. RB, amongst it being the most replaceable position outside of kicker and punter, is also the hardest to evaluate independent of offensive line. 

See example A: https://twitter.com/benjalsff/status/1131301727855153152?s=21

Its why I’ll stick to my guns on Jacobs. I actually think he could post a top 24 season this year. I would bet against him long term. I would bet against him being a starter next year and I would bet against him seeing a second contract with the Raiders and if someone wants to quote me four years down the line on that have at it. I will always bet against the guy with - - Production and - - Athleticism.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.