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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

Possum said:
you've posted this kind of stuff several times, and your posts come off like you think that kind of full-on state-backed authoritarianism is a good thing. I'm hopeful that's not really how you meant it, but if it is, I'd have to agree with Bass there.
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Well dude has stated he lived through the Iranian revolution in the late 70's so assuming that's true, I'd say he has a decent base of knowledge to make these statements.

shader said:
The USA has 955k active cases and who knows how many more not yet detected cases.  I give it a month until it all explodes again.  Not sure if the economy can handle a second mass shutdown.
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I don't think it does, I think we see regional/district level outbreaks but for the most part we go back to some kind of "not normal but more than what we are doing now". Just have to be smart about it and hope flubro's don't #### it up for everyone. Gonna be a lot of push back because we aren't going from 0 to 100 mph tomorrow but we gotta be patient and do this slowly.

jplvr said:
I would say that I hope we are better prepared than we were a month ago. PPE still seems to be an issue somehow, but we certainly have more ventilators than before. I'm definitely not a flubro, but the one way I lean in their direction is I think this needs to run it's course somehow. I was never in the full lock down camp, even when I saw it coming. We never really did that as a rule anywhere, but I understood why we needed to take those precautions (curve flattening). 

I think we may have waited too long to reopen too, and I blame this for the backlash we're seeing now. It's why I shared the information about boaters already saying "f it" and meeting up at a local spot like it was the 4th of July. I said at the time, "the rubber band is about to snap."

The bottom line is we cannot stay locked down forever, and instead of fighting reopening, I think we should have been doing a better job of saying, "we will reopen if __________." My personal choice for blank would be social distancing and everyone wear face coverings. The problem with masks, and I didn't care enough to remember who to tag, is that when people suggested reopening with mask requirements, people on the left of the argument would say, "masks don't work." Meanwhile, people also on this side of the argument would go out in public and complain about others not wearing masks.

Then you have people on the right acting like all of the numbers are "fake news" because they read a story where one guy overdosed or fell off a ladder and was counted as a CV death. Before places started to reopen, you could get them to begrudgingly agree to wear some sort of face covering if it meant things would reopen, but now? Good ####### luck. "Not old; not fat, bro." I suspect many are lying about the latter. 
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Tend to agree with all this  :thumbup:

Morton Muffley said:
And the environment had been on such a good run over the last 2 months.  This is why mother nature can't have nice things.
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Mother Nature: Let's up the ante, release the murder hornets...

 
JAA said:
I dont think our dailies will be reaching 2k again, let alone 3k.  First we assume NYC has peaked and that BOS and other NE cities there wont have the same total counts.  Then we look at the state data today for daily death counts, I dont think the remaining states can increase 5-10 fold such that we can have daily peaks that high.  In addition, mathimatically speaking if you remove NY state (who is on the downturn :fingerscrossed:), every other state would have to double their deaths all at the same time.  While I think the total death count overtime will be bad, but I just dont think due to the timing of it all we will be seeing 3k daily death counts.

Im basing this off the fact that no other US city today is being impacted like NYC was.  No LA, no Houston, no Philadelphia, not even Boston.  Could this change?  Absolutely, but this is my guess.

That said, I do believe we will have between 800 and 1500 per day for at least 3 months.  That would put us at like 70-140k more deaths, so a total of 140-210k by August 1.

:sadbanana:
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"If you just assume that all the major cities don't have any more cases, and that the lifting of lockdown combined with hordes of protesters won't have any impact, you can CLEARLY see that cases won't go up!" 
 

 
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Mr. Ham said:
Want to have your mind blown? The freest counties on Earth have a healthy degree of socialism.

Our obsessive focus on rugged individualism and free markets has caused great wealth, but also tremendous suffering, including inequality and in this case unnecessary death from this virus.

Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Scandinavia, have all managed relatively well, because communal culture and adherence to rules is a norm. So is respect for each other.
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The countries you cited (including the Scandanavian countries) are all free-market capitalist nations that did not impose martial law or embrace Iranian authoritarianism.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I understand. They are cultures that have respect for each other, not contempt.
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But that didn't have anything to do with the post you were responding to.  Basically the conversation went like this:

Poster #1 -- We should impose martial law.

Poster #2 -- No we shouldn't.  That's the price we pay for living in a free society.

You -- Oh yeah, but what about Japan?  

That's not very helpful and doesn't contribute to keeping this thread on track.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I understand. They are cultures that have respect for each other, not contempt. They are more equitable. A legacy when the dust settles in America will be how the top 25% of Americans had a cozy vacation by-and-large, while death and suffering was pushed down the economic ladder. 
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I agree and I am not in bottom 25%, I am probably in bottom 30%. I do need to stop going on line because I am seeing more and more vacation like stuff while I'm on hold for 30 hours with unemployment and getting nowhere.

 
beer 30 said:
Well dude has stated he lived through the Iranian revolution in the late 70's so assuming that's true, I'd say he has a decent base of knowledge to make these statements.
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I'm pretty sure CurlyNight is a woman, brother.  :)  

And you're right that she has said she lived through it, and I can understand how living through something like that makes you stronger. IMO that's not the tone of the posts she's made, though - she seems to think that some Ayatollah-style brutal oppression like shooting folks who won't stay indoors is just the ticket right now for our current situation. 

 
[icon] said:
JAA said:
I dont think our dailies will be reaching 2k again, let alone 3k.  First we assume NYC has peaked and that BOS and other NE cities there wont have the same total counts.  Then we look at the state data today for daily death counts, I dont think the remaining states can increase 5-10 fold such that we can have daily peaks that high.  In addition, mathimatically speaking if you remove NY state (who is on the downturn :fingerscrossed:), every other state would have to double their deaths all at the same time.  While I think the total death count overtime will be bad, but I just dont think due to the timing of it all we will be seeing 3k daily death counts.

Im basing this off the fact that no other US city today is being impacted like NYC was.  No LA, no Houston, no Philadelphia, not even Boston.  Could this change?  Absolutely, but this is my guess.

That said, I do believe we will have between 800 and 1500 per day for at least 3 months.  That would put us at like 70-140k more deaths, so a total of 140-210k by August 1.

:sadbanana:
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"If you just assume that all the major cities don't have any more cases, and that the lifting of lockdown combined with hordes of protesters won't have any impact, you can CLEARLY see that cases won't go up!" 
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Nice retort.

Instead of making baseless claims, do us all a favor and show us some specific breakdowns of how we get to 3k to bolster your "opinion".  Maybe use yesterdays totals.  Ill have a go ...

First, lets just double yesterdays numbers.  Why double, WHY NOT?!?!  I mean, the week over week trends show doubling happening every ... meh whatever with the modeling stuff.  Now we have ~2600 daily deaths.  OK, now we just need to find ~400 more deaths (every day).  Do we see NY being the hotspot?  Well, that makes no sense.  How about TX?  Sure ... lets do TX.  When we doubled TX numbers yesterday they went from 30 to 60.  Ok, how about we then triple the double.  Why triple the double?  WHY NOT?!?!  So now we go from 60 to 180.  OK, just 220 more to go.  Whats next?

Ill hang up and listen

 
Battersbox said:
There is an increasing body of evidence that outdoor transmission is minimal, at least compared to indoor transmission. If so, the spike from protests may never materialize anyway. I hope it doesn't. 
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The unfortunate thing is some of these "patriots" are fighting to go back to work in their crowded cube with 100's of other people in close proximity

 
Payne said:
Not sure why I am keep coming back to this thread. So much doom and gloom. So much negativity. No wonder so many people are depressed. 
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Yeah, I'll pop in once in awhile but man this thread is depressing.  

Been trying to stay positive and appreciate what is good right now. Because there is a lot of it going on. Weather has been beautiful....I'll never have this much time with my kids ever again....

Beer is still being brewed praise the Lord....

 
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Mr. Ham said:
There should be a communal response, with real sacrifice at every level of our country, that includes enforced rules. Of course there should, because it’s right, and we should value human life, even the old, even the poor. But it will never be done. Not here.

We are too selfish.
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This is one of the reasons the South Korean's were successful in their approach to containing the virus. They also had a different situation that I think made it a little bit easier in that they discovered the starting point fairly quickly, isolated that group then went on full lockdown on top of all that AND tested anything that moved. Coupled with a militaristic society (meaning one that is under constant threat of annihilation so accustomed to doing what the government tells them), they locked down tight, quick and got ahead of the spread.

I'll argue that we were never in full lockdown, let alone anything close to what SK achieved nor would we be able to pull that off short of instituting Marshall law. Your last statement is spot on.

 
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Possum said:
I'm pretty sure CurlyNight is a woman, brother.  :)  

And you're right that she has said she lived through it, and I can understand how living through something like that makes you stronger. IMO that's not the tone of the posts she's made, though - she seems to think that some Ayatollah-style brutal oppression like shooting folks who won't stay indoors is just the ticket right now for our current situation. 
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Well he's a woman so...my bad, guess I don't follow along THAT closely.

I don't take her posts that way, I read them the opposite but we all interpret things through our own lenses. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm sure she'll set us straight  :shrug:

 
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beer 30 said:
This is one of the reasons the South Korean's were successful in their approach to containing the virus. They also had a different situation that I think made it a little bit easier in that they discovered the starting point fairly quickly, isolated that group then went on full lockdown on top of all that AND tested anything that moved. Coupled with a militaristic society (meaning one that is under constant threat of annihilation so accustomed to doing what the government tells them), they locked down tight, quick and got ahead of the spread.

I'll argue that we were never in full lockdown, let alone anything close to what SK achieved nor would we be able to pull that off short of instituting Marshall law. You last statement is spot on.
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South Korea has access to cell phone data, credit card usage, and cctv whenever they want to track all movements of all citizens. 

They then text message this information out to all citizens that were at these same places. 

Things like "had a conversation with the barista at the north counter for two minutes from 11:15am-11:17am. Then went into bathroom for 37 minutes, hopefully fecal oral spread is not possible. Cashier entered bathroom immediately after, customer A waited outside the door."

I am only joking about the fecal oral spread line. Everything else is legit. 

 
JAA said:
You are going in circles.  You said they revised their numbers, but your numbers are the exact same as the numbers they previously stated.  I dont understand.
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Huh? THEY revised them from 120k-240k to 60k AFTER we started social distancing and now THEY revised the number BACK to 130k AFTER some states started relaxing distancing guidelines. Shouldn't that have been contemplated all along. It's just a horrible model if they assumed we would be shelter in place until August. 

 
tri-man 47 said:
On it goes with Covid worldometers.  80,000 new cases; 4,000 deaths.  Russia pops with another 10,500 cases, though I notice that had relatively few deaths.  :shrug:   Big 25% jump in Ghana.  Something I noticed in the U.S. numbers is that the District of Columbia is sixth in cases per million and seventh in deaths per million.  I suppose that fits with other densely packed urban areas.  
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Doctors and nurses falling out of windows seems to be a new Covid symptom there.

 
jobarules said:
JAA said:
You are going in circles.  You said they revised their numbers, but your numbers are the exact same as the numbers they previously stated.  I dont understand.
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Huh? THEY revised them from 120k-240k to 60k AFTER we started social distancing and now THEY revised the number BACK to 130k AFTER some states started relaxing distancing guidelines. Shouldn't that have been contemplated all along. It's just a horrible model if they assumed we would be shelter in place until August.
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You forgot the 2mil pre-social distancing but sure.  Without talking politics here, I think there are a lot of people who are not satisfied with our federal govt and their ability to plan.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Seriously. Said he will not patronize any business that requires masks. Says he and family went to a chain restaurant that required masks as part of local orders. Asked, “How am I even supposed to eat with a mask!” Answer, you eat without the mask. Then put it back on. Viola. But no, got in the car and drove 30 miles to the same chain and ate without a mask. Just so he could stick it to the town that requires masks. To which someone, can’t remember who, responded along the lines of, “Congratulations on your new virus.” :lmao:
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BIL in WI refuses to go into any business which requires masks. He thinks it’s all nonsense. 

 
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Mr. Ham said:
 Yes, this happened, because the citizenry didn’t print “Don’t tread on me” t-shirts when asked to do these things. They complied willingly, and trusted experts.
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Pre covid this would be something you would have posted about in a panic had you learned about the government creating a system to track people like this.

Even if it was something your grandma read on facebook.  

 
JAA said:
The posts here are misleading.  The federal govt DID NOT say there would be 240k deaths.  They are projecting a range of 100k-240k.

I hope everyone realizes how different these are.
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I think it was their initial estimate.  Then they backed it off a number of times down to 40k - 60K.  Now, as we pass 60K, they bumped it back up and will continue to do so until a vaccine comes online.  Since the "estimates" for a vaccine are currently anywhere from the end of this year to never, there is no way to predict deaths.  Its a waste of time to try.

You asked where the number came from.  There it is.  Sorry if you don't feel 240k doesn't fall within their estimated range. 

 
the moops said:
Wait what?

:lmao:
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VT700GUY said:
Sorry, I did misunderstand that.  Today we tried to eat in one town only to be told there is a requirement (city government rule) to wear a mask while dining.  (Not sure how I'm supposed to eat while wearing a mask).  We were traveling and on the way home so we simply got back in the vehicle and drove 30 miles to the next town, which did not have a mask requirement.

The interesting part of our "story" today is that the restaurant we ate at was the same company we attempted to eat at in the first town.  Simply different rules in place in that town than the first.
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Not trying to call out @VT700GUY, he made it clear why he wasn't going to wear a mask and that's his right. I disagree but live your life, hope you don't catch this and hope you don't give it to someone else.

 
ChiefD said:
Yeah, I'll pop in once in awhile but man this thread is depressing.  

Been trying to stay positive and appreciate what is good right now. Because there is a lot of it going on. Weather has been beautiful....I'll never have this much time with my kids ever again....

Beer is still being brewed praise the Lord....
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The most depressing part is that even a pandemic seems to have been caught up in “sides”.  The back and forth bickering is bad enough under regular circumstances but given the situation it’s maddening.

And beer, glorious beer    :banned:

 
Mr. Ham said:
Seriously. Said he will not patronize any business that requires masks. Says he and family went to a chain restaurant that required masks as part of local orders. Asked, “How am I even supposed to eat with a mask!” Answer, you eat without the mask. Then put it back on. Viola. But no, got in the car and drove 30 miles to the same chain and ate without a mask. Just so he could stick it to the town that requires masks. To which someone, can’t remember who, responded along the lines of, “Congratulations on your new virus.” :lmao:
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These protestors want their Applebee’s back so bad. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Pre covid this would be something you would have posted about in a panic had you learned about the government creating a system to track people like this.

Even if it was something your grandma read on facebook.  
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There's an entire thread here on the dangers of the government tracking us and several posters agreed. It's amazing how wishy washy some people are. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
I don’t do social media, except LinkedIn and here. And not sure what you’re trying to say, but whatever.

Data in January showed we were on a clear trajectory to a global pandemic. It calls for extraordinary measures to curb, and people should understand that.
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The problem is so many times the curtailment of civil liberties is a one-way ratchet.  Is it a given that it will happen that way with pandemic tracing surveillance?  I suppose not, but I don't think it is unreasonable or paranoid for people to be very concerned about the possibility.

 
the moops said:
Mr. Ham said:
A few days ago a poster here said he drove 30 miles out of his way so he could eat at a chain restaurant in a town that doesn’t have mask restrictions.
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Wait what?

:lmao:
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It is important to note that Ham is factually inaccurate here. I don't think it was an accident since he has a history of being factually inaccurate in this very thread. Remember Ham posted a broken english paid advertisement pushing coconut oil as a science backed way to prevent covid as if it was a news report about a study.  

He did not drive out of his way. He was traveling home. Stopped at one place and they had a mask rule. Then kept traveling home and stopped at the next place that didn't. 

That is very different than driving 30 miles out of his way. I know that. You know that. Ham knows that. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
No. But in crisis, a declared national emergency, three conditions...

transparent 

overseen (3rd party and government watchdog)

temporary 

Understand the slippery slope, but the other slope is a rock face with a long drop.

Also want to point out that a good swath of Americans supported sweeping changes post 911 in the wake of 3k killed. Over the next two years, COVID will very likely kill 1,000x that. It’s hard to equate when it’s a slow burn and a virus, but it should be a relative no brainer to suspend some expectations of freedom for awhile. 

Will also remind you that many confuse freedom and liberty. The concept of Liberty comes from Greeks and Romans, and means everyone should expect fair representation, but that decisions are made for the greater good and not for each person’s prosperity. Freedom is an individual pursuit that imagines every man should have complete equality in all pursuits. We’ve gotten these concepts all jumbled. The right wants to apply liberty to those seeking freedom, and sometimes wants freedom within the context of liberty. The left tends to favor freedom, and gets bent of out of shape by who controls the reigns of liberty, because it tends to unequally dispense freedom.
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I largely agree with what you wrote here.  It's a tricky situation. 

I think 9/11 is actually a good parallel, because some of the political sides were flipped but it's the same basic argument : people argue for government getting a bunch of extended powers, a minority pushes back, a minority of the majority responds "I guess you just want people to die".  We've seen it demonstrated again with the anti-terrorism stuff that these things are really difficult to claw back.  That doesn't mean it can't be done, but I think the obsolescence / claw back needs to be designed in from the start rather than just saying "trust us it'll happen".

 
ChiefD said:
Yeah, I'll pop in once in awhile but man this thread is depressing.  

Been trying to stay positive and appreciate what is good right now. Because there is a lot of it going on. Weather has been beautiful....I'll never have this much time with my kids ever again....

Beer is still being brewed praise the Lord....
Click to expand...
The thread isn't depressing, covid-19 and what it's done to the world is depressing.

But your outlook is great and it's one I've been doing as well.  Trying to get outside as much as possible, hanging with kids, half doing my job. It's been great.  But there are also a lot of people hurting and the reality is a depressing reality.  Burying one's head in the sand doesn't change that.  

 
jobarules said:
Huh? THEY revised them from 120k-240k to 60k AFTER we started social distancing and now THEY revised the number BACK to 130k AFTER some states started relaxing distancing guidelines. Shouldn't that have been contemplated all along. It's just a horrible model if they assumed we would be shelter in place until August. 
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Yes it's a horrible model.  I think we all know that. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I still don't understand how we got on an argument about mask-wearing and contact tracing in response to a post calling for the imposition of martial law.  I'm all for wearing masks and imposing contact tracing.  I'm against martial law.  I don't see that as being a strange position.
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agreed, this is where I'm at as well (with the caveat that I don't support the government having carte blanche access to individual personal data like cellphone tracking, etc). 

 
I think it's important to understand that psychologically, many people are frustrated and angry.  They want their old way of life back.  That's what they are protesting.

In a sense, humanity seems on a precipice.  People can see that their old life is right there if only everyone would open it back up.  Just start playing basketball again!  Just open the movie theaters, let's live our lives!  That's the argument, that's the protest.  

Because let's face it, another 4-5 months of this and the old life is gone.  Once it's gone, the future reality could be far different. 

 
JAA said:
I dont think our dailies will be reaching 2k again, let alone 3k.  First we assume NYC has peaked and that BOS and other NE cities there wont have the same total counts.  Then we look at the state data today for daily death counts, I dont think the remaining states can increase 5-10 fold such that we can have daily peaks that high.  In addition, mathimatically speaking if you remove NY state (who is on the downturn :fingerscrossed:), every other state would have to double their deaths all at the same time.  While I think the total death count overtime will be bad, but I just dont think due to the timing of it all we will be seeing 3k daily death counts.

Im basing this off the fact that no other US city today is being impacted like NYC was.  No LA, no Houston, no Philadelphia, not even Boston.  Could this change?  Absolutely, but this is my guess.

That said, I do believe we will have between 800 and 1500 per day for at least 3 months.  That would put us at like 70-140k more deaths, so a total of 140-210k by August 1.

:sadbanana:
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I thought the same thing but then the internal memo leaked about expecting to rise to 3000 per day by June. I don’t know how they expect to get to those numbers but they’ve got a heck of a lot more information than me.

 
Mr. Ham said:
There should be a middle ground where people take more responsibility. Takes a small minority refusing it to interfere with measures to curb the virus. We have unique conditions here that prevent many from giving one crap if their individual risk profile is low. 

We shouldn’t need martial law to have people complying with mask use and agreeing to be traced. But that is not our reality. 
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Ham, my friend, the kind of unquestioning compliance with authority like you're talking about with South Korea will never happen here in the US - there are both good (we have a stronger national belief in individual freedom and distrust of authoritarianism) and bad (we have a population with lots of idiots who take that concept of individual freedom to the furthest extreme despite the negative effect on fellow humans) reasons for why that is, but it's just not our national identity and never will be. Unfortunately, if you're going to hope for that kind of response here, you're always going to be frustrated and disappointed.

but that doesn't mean that there aren't still 80-90% of Americans out here who are willing to work towards fixing this issue by doing things that need to happen, like social distancing, wearing masks, tracing, etc. Don't let the minority of vocal idiots get you down, man - there's a lot of frustration right now across the country, but most folks are actually good people trying to do right, and we'll beat this thing eventually.

 
Possum said:
 
Ham, my friend, the kind of unquestioning compliance with authority like you're talking about with South Korea will never happen here in the US - there are both good (we have a stronger national belief in individual freedom and distrust of authoritarianism) and bad (we have a population with lots of idiots who take that concept of individual freedom to the furthest extreme despite the negative effect on fellow humans) reasons for why that is, but it's just not our national identity and never will be. Unfortunately, if you're going to hope for that kind of response here, you're always going to be frustrated and disappointed.

but that doesn't mean that there aren't still 80-90% of Americans out here who are willing to work towards fixing this issue by doing things that need to happen, like social distancing, wearing masks, tracing, etc. Don't let the minority of vocal idiots get you down, man - there's a lot of frustration right now across the country, but most folks are actually good people trying to do right, and we'll beat this thing eventually.
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I think you're being slightly optimistic.  I live in a suburban area of Nashville with a HIGH number of transplants from all over the country.  I'd put mask wearers at 25%, and that's being optimistic.  And people are starting to gather with friends.  Which is the exact opposite of social distancing.

 
Possum said:
 
Ham, my friend, the kind of unquestioning compliance with authority like you're talking about with South Korea will never happen here in the US - there are both good (we have a stronger national belief in individual freedom and distrust of authoritarianism) and bad (we have a population with lots of idiots who take that concept of individual freedom to the furthest extreme despite the negative effect on fellow humans) reasons for why that is, but it's just not our national identity and never will be. Unfortunately, if you're going to hope for that kind of response here, you're always going to be frustrated and disappointed.

but that doesn't mean that there aren't still 80-90% of Americans out here who are willing to work towards fixing this issue by doing things that need to happen, like social distancing, wearing masks, tracing, etc. Don't let the minority of vocal idiots get you down, man - there's a lot of frustration right now across the country, but most folks are actually good people trying to do right, and we'll beat this thing eventually.
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I agree with the bolded. We've got a vocal minority who are being dangerous IMO. Those people should be shunned/educated. But in the meantime the rest of us can stay 6-8 feet apart, wear masks, go out of the house only when necessary, support local businesses in the meantime, and slowly open up so we can get people back to work. Not everyone will go back to work, not everyone will wear a mask, but if we can increase those percentages every day, then those will be good days.

 
Mask wearing must be a state thing.  I can only speak to my experience near Pittsburgh, but mask wearing in stores is mandatory and is at nearly 100%.  Not everyone wears them correctly as a lot of people don't cover their nose with them, but I guess that's better than nothing.

It would be an interesting study to compare cases in mandatory and non-mandatory mask wearing states.

 
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