STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
It won’t work because there are far too many morons who aren’t doing their part.
You can tell who is doing their part and who isn’t in this very thread.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
You can tell who is doing their part and who isn’t in this very thread.
Doug B
Footballguy
To the bolded -- you're right, the goal of the quarantine matters when evaluating efficacy.
To actually kill off SARS-CoV-2 ... yeah, that tight of a quarantine is close to impossible outside of maybe North Korea. It wouldn't actually have to be all that long -- just super-duper harsh and tight-lidded.
For curve-flattening ... yeah, that's likely to be more of a sustained effort. Probably can't maintain that, either, as things stand now. We'll see how it's been going as we get feedback from the recent re-openings.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
So the same IHME update decreased Swedens estimated death totals by 7k (17k to 10k). What gives there?
Doug B
Footballguy
Granted.
We've not quarantined "hard enough" to necessarily put ourselves into the clear just yet. For whatever it's worth, the IHME model is likely accepting what I just wrote (minus the word 'necessarily') as a given.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I feel like we are going to be the last nation to open, like there is a 2-3 month cycle for the virus to burn out with shelter in place, but because we keep having incomplete sheltering in place and people that refuse to do the minimum things like wear masks we are constantly restarting the 2-3 month clock.
Doug B
Footballguy
Don't want to speak for scooter, but what he might be getting at is that the "restrictive portion" of the pandemic is the amount of time spent with healthcare resources overwhelmed. If, instead, the pandemic can be put on a "simmer" for a long time and the healthcare system can maintain sufficient available capacity to deal with localized spikes in severe cases ... society can perhaps enjoy a "non-restrictive portion" of the pandemic, where we can pretty much go to the same places as before and do a lot of the same things while taking greater care.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
tri-man 47
Footballguy
On it goes with Covid worldometers. 80,000 new cases; 4,000 deaths. Russia pops with another 10,500 cases, though I notice that had relatively few deaths. 
Big 25% jump in Ghana. Something I noticed in the U.S. numbers is that the District of Columbia is sixth in cases per million and seventh in deaths per million. I suppose that fits with other densely packed urban areas.
Big 25% jump in Ghana. Something I noticed in the U.S. numbers is that the District of Columbia is sixth in cases per million and seventh in deaths per million. I suppose that fits with other densely packed urban areas.
[scooter]
Footballguy
Because if people don't stay home, then the virus blows up, which means that A) hospitals get overwhelmed again, and B) lockdowns get reinstated.
Basically, we're trading short-term heavy restrictions now.....for long-term light restrictions later.
It's similar to an NFL or NBA team accepting a veteran with a terrible contract in exchange for lots of future draft picks. It sucks to have to take on the burden of that contract, but the payoff will be worth it down the road.
The people ignoring the stay-at-home directives are like the New York Knicks, who take on terrible contracts and then double-down by trading away their first-round picks.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
That model has been crap for 2 weeks now. Anyone with 4th grade math skills could have produced a better model than what they were forecasting. It was really embarrassing when they adjusted last week from 60k deaths by 8/4 to 72k.
JAA
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Your charts wouldn't have looked as nice, but I guarantee if I had asked you to estimate the mortalities 2 weeks ago, you'd have been higher than the IHME model...and therefore have produced a "better forecast." And fwiw, am not saying they aren't brilliant modelers who have clearly been perfecting their models. Just that they lose some credibility having left the old model up as long as they did.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
And the environment had been on such a good run over the last 2 months. This is why mother nature can't have nice things.
Capella
Footballguy
There has to be a drop off at some point but I agree that if they believe we’ll be averaging 3k/day by June, we’re gonna be closer to 250k total deaths by the end of summer. And it comes back like they expect during flu season, there will barely be a break.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
The model I am building in my head is: population density + mass transit + poverty + brown people = extreme tragedy. So, any city that is high in those factors will perform very poorly.On it goes with Covid worldometers. 80,000 new cases; 4,000 deaths. Russia pops with another 10,500 cases, though I notice that had relatively few deaths.
Footnotes:
- Density and mass transit increase the R0
- Poverty increases the likelihood of co-morbidities as well as decreasing the ability to work from home
- Brown people have lower vitamin D levels which worsen their outcomes
As always, just my opinion as a Wikipedia-certified armchair epidemiologist.
Edited to add: the Vitamin D thing (which is produced by sunlight and harder to produce the darker one's skin) is also, in my lay opinion, one of the reasons why
- Sweden isn't performing as badly as one might have predicted
- Southern states are performing better than northern states
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Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Well, let's celebrate the relatively low number of deaths in the US generally and the most impacted states specifically. All things considered, it was a "good" day. Top European countries had similarly "good" days today. Now, having said that SOME of this may be attributable to the weekend accounting (Which for several states and countries has been predictably lower than Tues thru Saturday counts. But even accounting for this the numbers still show declining deaths - which is a good indicator that case increases are likely a factor of increased testing. All of which makes me feel that the SiP advisories worked. And by "worked" I mean they:
- prevented healthcare systems from being overburdened
- enabled us to get prepared (more PPE, more ventilators, increased testing, stand up contact tracing systems)
- learn more about possible treatments (lie on stomach, more 02, ventilators only as last resort, remdesivir NOT hydroxychloroquine)
- learn how to practice good social distancing (wear mask to avoid droplets, re-configure workplaces)
Now, that we appear unwilling to employ all of the above universally is unfortunate, but I guess That's the price of living in a free society - take the good with the bad, I guess.
I always appreciate good discussion so thank you as well.
I live just outside a town of 50k and we have 12 confirmed cases so far, I feel like my level of risk is fairly low.
I do not interact regularly with anyone that would be in that group.
I would say that my family and I's behavior has been significantly altered. Both my wife and are are working from home, and for the most part prior to May 1st have only been to Lowe's (several times), Walmart (once or twice) and a few random businesses since the middle of March. We stocked up fairly well in early February after I saw the lock downs starting in Italy. We have utilized Walmart pickup for the majority of our groceries since then. After 5-6 weeks I realized that Walmart and Lowe's were packed in like Black Friday everyday and our cases were still nearly zero so I felt like there is very little risk in my area.
I don't have anything specific that would make me change my stance but I'm sure if our cases suddenly spiked to much higher numbers I would reconsider.
I have honestly seen very few people wearing masks around here. Well under 10%.
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[icon]
Insoxicated
Yep.
The throngs of mouth breathers who can't wait to force/celebrate opening by packing together like sardines are about to undo the last two months and force everything to shut down again. We've proven we are incapable to act like adults.
Gun to my head:
We see 1750-2000 avg/day for the next week or two, then it climbs back to the ~3k/day range for a while. Maybe worse.
100k by the 15th or 20th seems pretty safe bet.
Maybe 200k by 4th of July? Possibly a quarter million on the high side?
:(
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Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Pretty good description of my town of about 28k. 6 cases, 5 not hospitalized, 1 ( an 84 year old with liver disease) died. We initially had four and that was six weeks ago. So two new cases in over a month. Calm here. Hospital is very very slow. BUT, here well over 50% are wearing masks in stores. Last time I was in my closest convenience store it was 100%. Last time in Walmart it looked like 80% and there's a sign at the door saying masks are mandatory.
JbizzleMan
Footballguy
Good thread on that original "60K" model. https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1257477460519763969?s=20
Basically the model was already wrong when they released it in April because all of the assumptions had already been broken. It also assumed
1-states without social distancing don’t have any outbreaks
2-no inter-state/international travel
3-The infection rate R0 goes below 1
4-There is no let up of social distancing
5-No state opens until they have <10 cases
6- It ends by August 14/
Basically the model was already wrong when they released it in April because all of the assumptions had already been broken. It also assumed
1-states without social distancing don’t have any outbreaks
2-no inter-state/international travel
3-The infection rate R0 goes below 1
4-There is no let up of social distancing
5-No state opens until they have <10 cases
6- It ends by August 14/
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
So, I was being kind when I wrote that for the last 2 weeks the model was obviously crap - it was crap from the beginning!
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Shocked that FBGs allows a disgusting post like this.
When no one comes to work, then I guess they can shutter the doors and it's not an issue.
With no emergency services or healthcare providers working, it would have been a total disaster. Your scenario works only when gov't assigns people to work at the wage of there chasing and has goon squads beating the public into submission. Unfortunately this is the price we pay for some freedom.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Why? I lived through it. Lots of threats. You learn what obey the rules means whether you agree or not fast. At least here it's for a cause, like not unknowingly possibly killing someone because it's just too much to keep the distance and wear a mask.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Anyone for a cruise in August? Hard pass, even with a treatment out there.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Cruises? Don't talk about cruises! You kidding me? Cruises? I'm just trying to stay alive!
JaxBill
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
German soccer league to resume play in 10 days
@MailSport: BREAKING: Bundesliga 'to return on May 15' as German government gives green light https://trib.al/SYsnClh https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1257583394420031489/photo/1
@MailSport: BREAKING: Bundesliga 'to return on May 15' as German government gives green light https://trib.al/SYsnClh https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1257583394420031489/photo/1
JAA
Footballguy
Can you should me where the Federal govt said there would be 240k deaths this year? I dont recall that number ever issued.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
I dont think our dailies will be reaching 2k again, let alone 3k. First we assume NYC has peaked and that BOS and other NE cities there wont have the same total counts. Then we look at the state data today for daily death counts, I dont think the remaining states can increase 5-10 fold such that we can have daily peaks that high. In addition, mathimatically speaking if you remove NY state (who is on the downturn :fingerscrossed
, every other state would have to double their deaths all at the same time. While I think the total death count overtime will be bad, but I just dont think due to the timing of it all we will be seeing 3k daily death counts.Im basing this off the fact that no other US city today is being impacted like NYC was. No LA, no Houston, no Philadelphia, not even Boston. Could this change? Absolutely, but this is my guess.
That said, I do believe we will have between 800 and 1500 per day for at least 3 months. That would put us at like 70-140k more deaths, so a total of 140-210k by August 1.
Possum
Footballguy
you've posted this kind of stuff several times, and your posts come off like you think that kind of full-on state-backed authoritarianism is a good thing. I'm hopeful that's not really how you meant it, but if it is, I'd have to agree with Bass there.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I agree that many restaurants would do this, but also many wouldn't. I'm guessing larger chain restaurants would be more likely to do this.
But personally, and I'd think a lot of other smaller, locally owned places, I would never rat them out to the employment commission to get them back to work. We're like a family, so we take the same approach as if it were family. I am so incredibly thankful they've got some good help from unemployment right now. I'm not about to threaten to put that in jeopardy for them.
I still have no idea when we'll open back up, and obviously, the generous unemployment will delay it. But that's fine. The staff can eat and pay their bills without risking their health? So thankful for that.
I've told the staff they'll never be compelled to come back. I only want them to come back when they feel safe to do it, and they won't lose their job long-term for waiting. The fight back from this will an incredibly difficult one, and I'm going to need people all-in to make it. Them knowing I've got their back at all times, hopefully, means they'll have mine.
And when we re-open, it'll surely be at reduced hours anyway, so they could still get some of the unemployment.
But a bigger chain, I'm sure they'd rat an employee out to the employment commission, but employees are just replaceable pawns there anyway.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
So you're saying that openly advocating for an Iranian-style dictatorship might be a wee bit of an overreaction?
