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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

CR69 said:
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf

Look at page two for the positive test rate. It's not good...
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👍

Definitely can see that. You're the 1st person to post it in the form I'm asking...I have asked this question so many times, never get a straight answer. 

I will give my honest reaction...they opened a lot of indoor places. The beaches and outdoor activity have been open for over a month I think. It's been the indoor spots that IMO are bringing it up. The MALL is OPEN as an example. I want thing to be open I really do, that doesn't mean I'm going to go hang out in them. 

TY CR, tip of the cap. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
👍

Definitely can see that. You're the 1st person to post it in the form I'm asking...I have asked this question so many times, never get a straight answer. 

I will give my honest reaction...they opened a lot of indoor places. The beaches and outdoor activity have been open for over a month I think. It's been the indoor spots that IMO are bringing it up. The MALL is OPEN as an example. I want thing to be open I really do, that doesn't mean I'm going to go hang out in them. 

TY CR, tip of the cap. 
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I 100% agree that this thing is primarily spread indoors. With proper distance being around others outside doesn't seem to pose nearly the same risk. 

 
No time to wallow in self pity here...let's jump right into CR69 Stats that he was so awesome to spring in here. 

-As a Floridian I feel if those numbers are correct and we are seeing a huge surge not just in number of cases but in the percentage of those testing positive. So it was something close to 1,300/34,000 tests and that jumped to almost 2,600/38,000 tests...I'd have to double check but when I skimmed it, that's what I saw. That a major jump, albeit one day but it's gotta be alarming. 

-They're going to have to lock down Miami and Ft Lauderdale again and perhaps other bigger cities like Tampa/JAX, if only to send a message that if you get a few privileges and they are abused then you are going to get another timeout. It's not fair to the other places where they are following guidelines stronger and citizens are taken it more seriously. 

I ate out tonight for the 1st time in 3 months at a spot we like. It just happened to be a nice evening and so we sat at their new outside seating area which actually was even more fun than being stuck inside. But after reading those numbers CR69 shared, other than going to the beach and exercise which is what I've been doing anyways, it's no skin off my back right now if we just lock it all down again. I say that because we already locked down so if we were just going to go Wild West, what a waste of time and resources we've expelled doing all this. It will be incredibly disrespectful to the people who made sacrifices if we ignore all the new data going forward and pretend like this isn't happening. 

I know it's frustrating to see someone swinging like a pendulum at times on certain topics but I finally got an answer to my question. I asked a gazillion folks at my tennis center, etc and none of them could answer how many tests were administered. That would have been an important number I think to make public for those that might have been wanting some assurances these were not a result of simply double the testing. That doesn't seem to be the case at all and so to argue the other direction would seem at best a very slim chance of successfully defending that POV tonight. 

 
Man In The Box said:
I had this same exact thought today. 
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On MLB, in the last few years I have gotten to take in a lot of Rays Games with my son, it's so painful to see these guys not be able to come together but it's also hard for me to understand why or how some of the higher paid players can risk it this year for a very short season and what feels more and more like exhibition vs what we have always loved. 

I totally understand folks who are lambasting the owners and players but at the same time it feels more like it's the owners and Manfred's created mess. Silver/NBA have been out in front of this IMHO and are trying everything they can to get back on the court. It just doesn't feel like MLB is understanding of what is happening right now.  

 
Ministry of Pain said:
No time to wallow in self pity here...let's jump right into CR69 Stats that he was so awesome to spring in here. 
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Here is an interesting stat:  52.6% (1540 out of 2925) of the deaths in Florida are related to long term care facilities

Amazing amount of information in that link for anyone with Florida connections.  

Big outlier is the small migrant farm community of Immokalee, home of significant vegetable farming in Florida.  

Total listed population:  24154  Total Covid Cases: 1075

12th highest in the entire state.  More than large cities such as St Petersburg, Sarasota, Ft Myers, 

 
TheWinz said:
I noticed the link posted by @SoBeDad showed Florida with a total of 16,105 positives over the last 11 days.  What is annoying is with so many specific numbers and percentages in the article, why leave out the most important one if you are listing positives - tests performed over the same 11 days?  If this guy has access to all those numbers he quoted, he surely had access to tests performed.
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We haven't opened anymore testing sites for about 3 weeks now.  None of them have been at capacity for about a month now.  The one thing this state has done well is get up on testing.  We've been testing well for quite a while now.  These numbers as a precursor should be alarming to anyone here.  My MIL hospital (that was at capacity two weeks ago) seemed to have a break last week, but by the end of this week was back up to capacity.  She's freaking out again.

 
culdeus said:
In Florida now.  There is nothing at all to suggest a pandemic is happening.  A few stores require masks to enter.  That's it.  At a remote beach location where don't have to interact with anyone and sure as hell don't plan to.  
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:lmao:

 Exactly...it's been really hard to try and keep context in discussions here in the FFA and not let personal experience be the assumed norm.  Florida has been open from the get go.  Here in Central Florida the major impact was the closing of the parks, bars, gyms and nail/hair places.  Almost everything else was open in some capacity.  I said early on in the PSF that I am absolutely confident Florida becomes a hotspot before this is all over.  My only hope was that it became the hotspot before people started traveling here again.  That became even more important when we found out all the "checkpoints" being done at the borders and airports had basically no follow ups after the 14 day quarantine.  :lol:  

 
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The Commish said:
:lmao:

 Exactly...it's been really hard to try and keep context in discussions here in the FFA and not let personal experience be the assumed norm.  Florida has been open from the get go.  Here in Central Florida the major impact was the closing of the parks, bars, gyms and nail/hair places.  Almost everything else was open in some capacity.  I said early on in the PSF that I am absolutely confident Florida becomes a hotspot before this is all over.  My only hope was that it became the hotspot before people started traveling here again.  That became even more important when we found out all the "checkpoints" being done at the borders and airports had basically no follow ups after the 14 day quarantine.  :lol:  
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There were no follow-ups 14 minutes after leaving them.  

The space guidelines and capacity for restaurants is a total joke as well.  Completely ignored.  

 
culdeus said:
There were no follow-ups 14 minutes after leaving them.  

The space guidelines and capacity for restaurants is a total joke as well.  Completely ignored.  
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Yeah...our news outlets here in Central Florida have been following this nonsense since it was announced.  They haven't found a single person that the state has followed up.  None of them have been contacted.  It's a gross waste of resources...it's absurd really.  

 
CR69 said:
The lady in Florida that was fired started her own tracking site. <1,600 ICU beds available. 

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/
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Given the issues around her being fired, my very first question is, "where is she getting the complete set of data to do the site?"  That was the problem.  Her site is only going to be as good as the data she's provided and now that she's not part of that inner circle, I have no idea whether it's worth the time or not.  My second thought is then, knowing she was concerned about it, I feel like if she felt it was bad data she wouldn't do the site. 

 
The Commish said:
Yeah...our news outlets here in Central Florida have been following this nonsense since it was announced.  They haven't found a single person that the state has followed up.  None of them have been contacted.  It's a gross waste of resources...it's absurd really.  
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It's Kafkaesque.

 
trader jake said:
If this virus has taught us anything, it should be that we can't determine our outcomes with confidence (and political talking points).  If Arizona doesn't start doing things differently, the choice won't be open for debate at some point.
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Well, we shouldn't...but we most certainly can...happens all the time...it's gross

 
The Commish said:
CR69 said:
The lady in Florida that was fired started her own tracking site. <1,600 ICU beds available. 

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/
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Given the issues around her being fired, my very first question is, "where is she getting the complete set of data to do the site?"  That was the problem.  Her site is only going to be as good as the data she's provided and now that she's not part of that inner circle, I have no idea whether it's worth the time or not.  My second thought is then, knowing she was concerned about it, I feel like if she felt it was bad data she wouldn't do the site. 
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Looking more...see this on the left nav:

Portions of the dashboard here depend upon current DOH case data.  DOH occasionally pulls data offline, causing some features of our community dashboard to appear blank. As a warning, the DOH data that feeds both their own dashboard and this community dashboard has been either intentionally pulled offline or suffered critical errors since May 6.  Our team is working to collect the data without depending on DOH's live updates, to prevent future issues with getting the data you need and care about to you. To help with these efforts, please click here to see our fundraising page. 

TO INQUIRE WITH DOH AS TO WHY THE DATA IS MISSING AGAIN, PLEASE EMAIL COVID-19@FLHEALTH.GOV
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DOH occasionally pulls data offline, causing some features of our community dashboard to appear blank

Doh!

 
Slapdash said:
Big spike in daily Louisiana numbers per Worldometers. Hopefully that is an aberation. 
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I am guessing that there were new labs that came online, clearing a backlog of pending tests, which usually means some of those positives are months old. Yesterday (6/13) was the largest number of new tests (~25K) we've had to date in a single day, by nearly double.  HOWEVER... the daily percentage of positives (of daily new cases) was 5.18%, which is right in line and actually maybe a little lower than the normal daily rate. And DESPITE that huge jump. Our overall percentage positive still decreased 9.38% to 9.18%.   

This hammers home a point that I've been trying to make after tracking our data for a long while now. One cannot JUST look at the number of cases without knowing the story behind the big jumps. If testing numbers are steady (i.e. no new labs, backlogs, etc.) and you still have a big jump. That's when it's time to be concerned. Just my :2cents:  

 
McBokonon said:
Had to venture out a bit today. Since I was in downtown Phoenix, I decided to get takeout from a local restaurant that we wouldn’t necessarily order from otherwise. Based on what I saw there and the restaurants around it, I did some back of the envelope math and determined we’re all going to die by October 14th.
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This was about a month ago. My timeline seems to be holding. 

 
jamny said:
DOH occasionally pulls data offline, causing some features of our community dashboard to appear blank

Doh!
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Yeah.... the honesty coming out of our governor and his agencies has become a problem unfortunately. glad that disclaimer is on there.... nowhere to be found on the state site

 
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Nathan R. Jessep said:
I am guessing that there were new labs that came online, clearing a backlog of pending tests, which usually means some of those positives are months old. Yesterday (6/13) was the largest number of new tests (~25K) we've had to date in a single day, by nearly double.  HOWEVER... the daily percentage of positives (of daily new cases) was 5.18%, which is right in line and actually maybe a little lower than the normal daily rate. And DESPITE that huge jump. Our overall percentage positive still decreased 9.38% to 9.18%.   

This hammers home a point that I've been trying to make after tracking our data for a long while now. One cannot JUST look at the number of cases without knowing the story behind the big jumps. If testing numbers are steady (i.e. no new labs, backlogs, etc.) and you still have a big jump. That's when it's time to be concerned. Just my :2cents:  
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Yeah but what about those people that were waiting on tests? What percentage of them do you think quarantined while waiting weeks for their results? 

Also this more testing = more cases argument was applicable in the beginning but this far into this it doesn't hold much weight imo. More cases now = the current approach is not working. 

 
Sand said:
I've written about the laissez faire attitude on masks here.  Unless you're at Costco, where required, it's very hit or miss.  Grocery is 50%, Home Depot is about 10%.

My wife has been itching to go back to church and I've asked her to hold off the last few weeks.  Sadly I'm vindicated here.
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In CT, masks are required everywhere indoors.  Are there places where masks are optional inside some buildings and mandatory in others?

 
Sand said:
I've written about the laissez faire attitude on masks here.  Unless you're at Costco, where required, it's very hit or miss.  Grocery is 50%, Home Depot is about 10%.

My wife has been itching to go back to church and I've asked her to hold off the last few weeks.  Sadly I'm vindicated here.
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Yeah, Costco is good with masks but nowhere seems to be able to drive social distancing.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
I am guessing that there were new labs that came online, clearing a backlog of pending tests, which usually means some of those positives are months old. Yesterday (6/13) was the largest number of new tests (~25K) we've had to date in a single day, by nearly double.  HOWEVER... the daily percentage of positives (of daily new cases) was 5.18%, which is right in line and actually maybe a little lower than the normal daily rate. And DESPITE that huge jump. Our overall percentage positive still decreased 9.38% to 9.18%.   

This hammers home a point that I've been trying to make after tracking our data for a long while now. One cannot JUST look at the number of cases without knowing the story behind the big jumps. If testing numbers are steady (i.e. no new labs, backlogs, etc.) and you still have a big jump. That's when it's time to be concerned. Just my :2cents:  
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Connecticut is showing 13,985 tests yesterday.  I've been following CT's numbers like a hawk, and there is no way all those tests were from yesterday.  The great news is our positive rate has been going down, and more important, staying down.  Since 1 June, we have 2254 positives out of 83108 tests (2.72%).  We are heading into our next phase in a few days, so let's see at what rate people shed their masks.

 
Everyone knows there will be an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths once things started opening up. I think it needs to be defined what is an uptick and what is a spike. One is acceptable, the other is not.

 
jamny said:
Everyone knows there will be an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths once things started opening up. I think it needs to be defined what is an uptick and what is a spike. One is acceptable, the other is not.
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That’s a difficult differentiation to make. Numbers in TN are without question going up.  The issue with the math is that once things start going up, it only gets worse and worse over time.  So a continual uptick In numbers eventually turns into a spike, wave, whatever you want to call it, unless steps are taken to reverse the trend.

 
TheWinz said:
Connecticut is showing 13,985 tests yesterday.  I've been following CT's numbers like a hawk, and there is no way all those tests were from yesterday.  The great news is our positive rate has been going down, and more important, staying down.  Since 1 June, we have 2254 positives out of 83108 tests (2.72%).  We are heading into our next phase in a few days, so let's see at what rate people shed their masks.
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Yes it seems like the NE is doing pretty well. 

 
culdeus said:
There were no follow-ups 14 minutes after leaving them.  

The space guidelines and capacity for restaurants is a total joke as well.  Completely ignored.  
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This Is why we can’t have nice things.  I truly felt/feel horrible for those impacted financially by this with losing their jobs/income.  I was in favor or slow opening and allowing some folks to get back to work - but most everybody is like, “guess that’s over - back to normal”.  And if things continue how they are and some of you are right that we won’t shut down again then we are going to be in some serious #### come Fall.

 
AAABatteries said:
This Is why we can’t have nice things.  I truly felt/feel horrible for those impacted financially by this with losing their jobs/income.  I was in favor or slow opening and allowing some folks to get back to work - but most everybody is like, “guess that’s over - back to normal”.  And if things continue how they are and some of you are right that we won’t shut down again then we are going to be in some serious #### come Fall.
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I think this is very regional and even local.  I don't see much griping about masks here in Baltimore.  Not many people wearing them outdoors, but inside retail like grocery and Home Depot, it's still mandatory, as it should be.

 
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Sand said:
I've written about the laissez faire attitude on masks here.  Unless you're at Costco, where required, it's very hit or miss.  Grocery is 50%, Home Depot is about 10%.

My wife has been itching to go back to church and I've asked her to hold off the last few weeks.  Sadly I'm vindicated here.
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Same here in SC. Was good at start but in last 2-3 weeks, less and less. Walmart is still pretty good but anywhere else, meh. 

 
AAABatteries said:
This Is why we can’t have nice things.  I truly felt/feel horrible for those impacted financially by this with losing their jobs/income.  I was in favor or slow opening and allowing some folks to get back to work - but most everybody is like, “guess that’s over - back to normal”.  And if things continue how they are and some of you are right that we won’t shut down again then we are going to be in some serious #### come Fall.
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We're only in beginning of opening in NY. Guess we'll be quarantining visitors from the south in the fall. 

 
The Z Machine said:
I think this is very regional and even local.  I don't see much griping about masks here in Baltimore.  Not many people wearing them outdoors, but inside retail like grocery and Home Depot, it's still mandatory, as it should be.
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That’s the thing. Masks indoors but not outdoors is a reasonable policy that everyone should be able to follow. Feel like if that was a consistent message throughout the country that would go a long way to stopping the spread.

 
Tool said:
That’s the thing. Masks indoors but not outdoors is a reasonable policy that everyone should be able to follow. Feel like if that was a consistent message throughout the country that would go a long way to stopping the spread.
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I'm all for 100% mask usage indoors, and luckily I live in a state that still adheres to the rules without much pushback.  The problem I see is, without a vaccine, do we keep this rule in effect forever?  Because that's the path some Governors are going to try to take.

 
Testing numbers per Worldometer...

- Rhode Island is leading the nation with 18.1% of it's population tested
- Only 7 other states are over 10% (NY, NM, NJ, ND, MA, LA, AK)
- The average per state is 7.5% tested
- Idaho is last in the nation with only 3.5% tested
- 5 other states are under 5% (OR, CO, KS, PA, OH)

So, are there any correlations between the amount of testing and how good a state is actually doing?  In short, no.

 
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