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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Grove: now ask if that error (caused by neither malicious intent nor by any presumed monetary gain, but rather due to SOP in writing death certificates) is more than offset by the number of people who are dying of Covid, but since they have not been tested, are being listed as "unknown cause."
IOW, all analysis to date strongly suggests that regardless of any anecdotal evidence of car accident victims with Covid who are being counted in the "Covid death" category, the number of deaths FROM Covid is UNDERCOUNTED by about 20% (see "excess deaths" and recognize that some of these are undoubtedly suicides and heart attacks caused by inability to get treatment, but most are assuredly unattributed Covid deaths. And absolutely none are from govt-mandated mask asphyxiation).
Or alternatively, you could simply listen to those who seek to answer complex and nuanced questions with overly simple answers. Your call.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
The other answers you got are probably closer to my thoughts - however, I will say that it's probably completely a regional thing and there seems to me that it COULD have happened. But this is like most other conspiracy theories - it breaks down once people think it's done at scale and in secret. There's basically a 0% chance that it's widespread and intentionally done. There's a non-zero chance that some individual person did it intentionally once or twice.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Like I said, honest question. I think I’ve been pretty consistently on the critical side of how things have been handled (ie most states and people have been way too lax).
But good data is important to make good decisions. Making assumptions one way or the other leads to poor decisions.
beer 30
Footballguy
Our leaders are playing to their constituents and straddling the fence. We are living in a time of leadership unwilling to make a hard decision based on longevity of their political careers. We saw it early on when Federal leadership pushed decision making down to the States then (most) of the States punted to the City level and where possible the cities punted to the Towns. No one wants to make a decision because 1. the idea of wearing a mask has somehow become a political discussion and 2. in this day & age, no one wants to piss off somebody by making a hard decision so if the opportunity to ### it to someone else is there, that's where we are going.Mr Anonymous said:
Refreshing to see private businesses step up, do the right thing and lead from the front. Tired of this BS debate 7 months into this thing. I hope every business requires masks, then maybe people will get it and our leadership will see that it's ok to make a decision and not try to please everybody.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
When is this? Is there an objective daily case number where people can resume normal activity? Just the regular flu numbers? Vaccine regularly available? I bet a lot of people will continue with the masks all the time when interacting socially. Feels like there's no end in sight unfortunately.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Someone recently asked if the age of death was dropping. Here are the current percentages of deaths by age, according to CDC:
85 and older = 33.059%
75 thru 84 = 26.419%
65 thru 74 = 20.818%
55 thru 64 = 12.106%
45 thru 54 = 4.961%
35 thru 44 = 1.788%
25 thru 34 = 0.695%
15 thru 24 = 0.129%
0 thru 14 = 0.026%
I've been tracking this for a few months now, and the numbers have remained very consistent. Here are the numbers from a month ago:
85 and older = 33.286%
75 thru 84 = 26.607%
65 thru 74 = 20.768%
55 thru 64 = 11.941%
45 thru 54 = 4.850%
35 thru 44 = 1.722%
25 thru 34 = 0.678%
15 thru 24 = 0.122%
0 thru 14 = 0.026%
85 and older = 33.059%
75 thru 84 = 26.419%
65 thru 74 = 20.818%
55 thru 64 = 12.106%
45 thru 54 = 4.961%
35 thru 44 = 1.788%
25 thru 34 = 0.695%
15 thru 24 = 0.129%
0 thru 14 = 0.026%
I've been tracking this for a few months now, and the numbers have remained very consistent. Here are the numbers from a month ago:
85 and older = 33.286%
75 thru 84 = 26.607%
65 thru 74 = 20.768%
55 thru 64 = 11.941%
45 thru 54 = 4.850%
35 thru 44 = 1.722%
25 thru 34 = 0.678%
15 thru 24 = 0.122%
0 thru 14 = 0.026%
beer 30
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Allegedly, all the same people have access to all the same data just in a different system.....allegedly. I think from a practical perspective, it's going to go down (on a much larger scale of course) as "hey, I have no idea why my hospital numbers aren't what we sent you...what's up with that?" like what's happening right now here in Florida.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Understood and took your question exactly as intended.
As a data scientist myself I am well aware of the need for "good data." But I also know that there is no such thing as perfect data - that all data contains inaccuracies, noise and outliers. And thus any dataset can be found lacking if the expectations are not properly set. Indeed, I have seen people in this thread evaluating data sets the way we assess natural laws. That is, anything that can be found to contradict it discredits the entirety. That may be true for any natural law theory, but that isn't how data works. Much like the saying "we fight with the army we have," the same is true for data. Yes, understand the flaws in your dataset, but don't throw the whole thing out because you uncovered a few errors and outliers.
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Morton Muffley
Footballguy
We may be, we may not be. That data, compiled in that format, won't tell you that one way or the other.
renesauz
IBL Representative
i havent seen this in my facility, and I've seen a lot of covid deaths that WERE primarily COVID caused. But it's also not as simple as you would believe. Many illnesses cause systemic failures. AS a SIMPLE non covid example: someone Overdoses on Tylenol and devastates their liver. They live another month in the hospital before finally dying. Their acetaminophen levels are normal for several weeks before they died. Did they die of liver failure...or overdose?
So...someone has cancer but has been doing ok seeing family and having some nice final months....COVID gets them and they die today when they might have had another month or two. Without the cancer, COVID may not have killed them....cause of death COVID or cancer?
It isn't always so straight forward. There have certainly been isolated cases we could (mostly) agree shouldnt be counted as COVID deaths, but I think those are relatively isolated/fairly insignificant to the totals....especially when you consider that some folks are dying of COVID and never tested
culdeus
Footballguy
Yesterday was first day in 86 days to see an increase in cumulative mortality. (slight). This site breaks down a lot of different regions well
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
renesauz
IBL Representative
went completely ballistic on one facebook "friend" this AM....one of those far right wing guys that seems to think everything the media puts out is a lie. Basically restating for at least the tenth time in the last month how the media stories are all hype...COVID kills less then 1% so all the coverage and such is nonsense.
So frustrating. Yeah...1% isn't much worse then seasonal flu (if roughly half again as deadly isn't much!), its more contagious, the recovery time is 2,3,4 times as long, and it's leaving far more people with long term damages...but hey yeah, it's only killing LESS THEN 1%!!!!
%$^%&#* idiots...so frustrating
So frustrating. Yeah...1% isn't much worse then seasonal flu (if roughly half again as deadly isn't much!), its more contagious, the recovery time is 2,3,4 times as long, and it's leaving far more people with long term damages...but hey yeah, it's only killing LESS THEN 1%!!!!
%$^%&#* idiots...so frustrating
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Nextdoor continues to provide gems...
My husband is a health actuary and it is literally his JOB to predict this. The fact that positive cases are 4.8% tells me they are not testing enough in our county yet. The rate that is needed to make confident actuarial predictions is 10%. So....we are testing LESS THAN half as much. And that is science and math. Not opinion.
My husband is a health actuary and it is literally his JOB to predict this. The fact that positive cases are 4.8% tells me they are not testing enough in our county yet. The rate that is needed to make confident actuarial predictions is 10%. So....we are testing LESS THAN half as much. And that is science and math. Not opinion.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
And another genius...
The "flu shot" has SARS antibodies in it as well as for other coronaviruses. This is why so many people are testing positive since these show up as positives in Covid 19 testing.
The "flu shot" has SARS antibodies in it as well as for other coronaviruses. This is why so many people are testing positive since these show up as positives in Covid 19 testing.
shader
Footballguy
Deaths in the 21 states I’m tracking have gone up every day for the last 12 days. They will continue to rise until we start seeing cases plateau. I don’t know what’s difficult to understand about that, or why you have an issue with it?
Cases CONTINUE to rise, so this increase in deaths will continue to happen. Again, this isn’t difficult to understand.
The Commish
Footballguy
And there is pretty good reason to believe there can be significant long term damage that the flu doesn't necessarily have. We have lots of short sighted people in this country which I expect given the average American can't seem to look beyond the here/now or beyond their personal anecdotes.
renesauz
IBL Representative
absolutely...and I've seen this close up as well. We have one guy we've been treating for 6 weeks, needed surgery to repair a hole in his lung, and will almost certainly keep his trach the rest of his life. He's in his 40s with very little previous health history
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
shader
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I would love to read the contact tracing transcripts for that. 72 refused to be tested. My hunch is that they had to be incredibly vague because I cant understand how such a high % would refuse to get tested.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Awful.
Did he void the shirt and shoes requirement as well? His office says mask mandates are unenforceable. Gov't sure doesn't seem to have a problem enforcing the mandate to wear shoes and a shirt into private business. Businesses are just going to have to take this into their own hands.
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Arizona and I believe Florida had a similar provision when they opened up. AZ opened it up and most of the cities and counties put one in place immediately. What the heck is the benefit of this other than control?
Sand
Footballguy
Per the WSJ the NBA is doing daily testing and sucking up 2,000 of the US 750k capacity. Not to mention they get results in a day where suck folks are waiting well over a week in cases (that long a delay makes the testing useless).
That's insane. There is no way that's worth that slice of testing capacity. No doubt this is causing deaths in the population for a bit of entertainment.
Shut. It. Down.
That's insane. There is no way that's worth that slice of testing capacity. No doubt this is causing deaths in the population for a bit of entertainment.
Shut. It. Down.
culdeus
Footballguy
https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/aop/eje-20-0541/eje-20-0541.xml
More regressions run on BMI as a risk factor.
European BMI isn't exactly our BMI, but it's close enough.
Anyone 30+ is going to have a hard time with this. 35+ and you are in big trouble. This aligns well with some of the anecdotal reports that the beds are full of obese people.
More regressions run on BMI as a risk factor.
European BMI isn't exactly our BMI, but it's close enough.
Anyone 30+ is going to have a hard time with this. 35+ and you are in big trouble. This aligns well with some of the anecdotal reports that the beds are full of obese people.
culdeus
Footballguy
I don't get why they can't get away with weekly testing on a rotating schedule. They are either in a bubble or they aren't.
yak651
Footballguy
See how many basketball players have kids with multiple women in multiple cities, no way they are staying in a bubble or not smuggling people into their bubble...
Just wait for when it is time to get the flu shot this year. People will be saying the Government is putting untested Covid-19 vaccine in with the flu shot.
Not too intriguing. They tested negative and then were quarantined for 14 days. Obviously, the quarantine wasn’t truly observed and one or more people got on board with the virus and it spread wildly because everyone thought they were all negative.Nathan R. Jessep said:
Coronavirus: Florida reports 13,965 cases and 156 new deaths, breaking record 44 more deaths confirmed in Miami-Dade County
This is why Miami-Dade and other school districts in Florida don't want to reopen.
This is why Miami-Dade and other school districts in Florida don't want to reopen.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
It doesn't matter what they want anymore. As Dr. Sanjay Gupta frequently alludes to, when cases are low, we get to decide. When hospitals and deaths are at this level, the virus decides.
Opening schools is a pipe-dream there, and frankly the way the country has handled it, opening schools is probably a pipe-dream everywhere.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
My guess is we are for those that are in homes or need caregivers. There's still a lot of independent 65+ folks who are doing whatever they want. It would be interesting to see the numbers again as it relates to nursing homes, etc.
More context: "Miami-Dade: Big volume of tests reported on Thursday morning, nudges DOH positivity below 20%. It's just one day, and 3,000+ cases on 18.5% isn't exactly something to celebrate. AHCA dash has COVID hospitalizations steady overnight. We'll see what the county says later."
https://twitter.com/conarck/status/1283773152628219905
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Per Worldometers, on July 5 our 7 day rolling average of daily deaths was 515, which is the lowest since March 30th. Since then, we have been back on the rise. This week the rate of increase isn't as big as last week, but we have still hit 760 which is the highest since the uptick. As for daily deaths, yesterday was the first day we broke 1000 since June 9th. It's hard to imagine this going back down anytime soon since our daily new cases are steadily rising.
It really is mindblowing when comparing our charts to other countries, and it really ticks me off that we didn't have the national leadership that we needed to avoid this, just as many other countries have done.
It really is mindblowing when comparing our charts to other countries, and it really ticks me off that we didn't have the national leadership that we needed to avoid this, just as many other countries have done.
culdeus
Footballguy
This is worth reviewing. It shows with each CDC update where the deaths landed. It's something that has been difficult to pull out.
https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1283410356212240385
Of concern here is that the death rate for the week of July 11 over-proportionally landed in the weeks of 4/25 and 5/2. This by and large is what I imagine the white house wants to prevent going forward. Or, if you take a different perspective, landing those deaths so far back and so hard could be a conspiracy to make things appear better.
The week of 7/11 is tracking towards an increase in the cumulative mortality rate. This would again be something that has not happened since April. And the magnitude of it looks to be tiny.
https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1283410356212240385
Of concern here is that the death rate for the week of July 11 over-proportionally landed in the weeks of 4/25 and 5/2. This by and large is what I imagine the white house wants to prevent going forward. Or, if you take a different perspective, landing those deaths so far back and so hard could be a conspiracy to make things appear better.
The week of 7/11 is tracking towards an increase in the cumulative mortality rate. This would again be something that has not happened since April. And the magnitude of it looks to be tiny.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I mentioned in the PSF thread that I called his office this morning to let him know what I thought of his EO on this. Pathetic.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Agree with your sentiment, but I thought the death rate for the flu was 0.1%, which makes this 10 times as deadly.
Interesting to look at current numbers. Right now for coronavirus in the US there have been 3.6 million people who have tested positive and the death rate is at 3.9%. Of course we know this number isn't right, because there are a lot of people who have had it and never got tested. If the death rate is 1%, that means that roughly 14 million people have had the virus which is around 4% of the country.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
I doubt you were the only one. Hopefully they listen to their constituents. It would be easy to flip flop and say they didn't want a bunch of local and differently worded mandates and then impose a universal statewide one. I have a feeling that's what will ultimately happen. Friggin' Alabama put in a mask mandate after all.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
MLB converted one of their drug testing labs to a Covid testing lab and they were making a point to let everyone know that they were not taking testing capability away from the general public. Surprised NBA didnt do the same.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
We already have local school systems reversing course and going all virtual to start. I wish it didn't come to this but as Grace mentions above - when you don't do the right things and let the cases get high enough you have no choice but to lock things down (or accept the illnesses and deaths that come with it).
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
I find it interesting to see some of the alternative viewpoints when it comes to looking at the statistics. But one thing that is hard to overlook is that our positive case numbers continue to increase. We know that Covid has some unknown mortality rate, so you would also expect the number of deaths to increase. Other countries have had a steady decline in the number of positive cases.
beer 30
Footballguy
So I'm confused...
"Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) signed an executive order Wednesday night explicitly banning cities from enacting their own mask mandates..."
"Kemp’s order voids existing mask mandates in more than a dozen cities or counties, while also extending other coronavirus social-distancing restrictions statewide."
Wait...wha?
"Kemp’s new order “strongly encourages” masks."
"Kemp’s order comes two weeks after he joined U.S. Surgeon General Jerome M. Adams in a campaign at stops around the state to encourage Georgians to wear masks. The governor appealed to sports fans, saying, “If you want some college football this fall and other sports, wear your mask for the next few weeks.”"
Regardless, all of the non-maskers have a new home where they can congregate. At least there is that silver lining. Hope it works out for them.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Governors like Kemp seem less willing to re-institute lockdowns than they are to mandate masks. You're likely in for a real mess and I'm sorry to see that for you. Hopefully this wave of businesses mandating masks grows to the point that it doesn't matter what individual state governments fail to do.
