timschochet
Footballguy
All right I’m a very optimistic person and I’ve tried to maintain that optimism throughout this election cycle but I’m finally fed up. I’ve said many times that Donald Trump should not be difficult to defeat, and I still tend to believe that, but the Democrats have made it much more difficult due to unforced errors.
The Iowa mess is only the tip of the iceberg. In one sense I don’t really care; screwups in counting votes in February is not going to kill us in November. But in another sense it’s emblematic of an overall incompetence and poor thinking that is going to lead to Trump’s re-election. Let’s go over this again:
1. Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Donald Trump. Full stop. It’s not going to happen. A few days ago I wrote that if he’s the nominee he might have a 40-50% chance but that was being very generous. Bernie will lose because his biggest support largely comes from states that are already in the blue column: New York, California, Massachusetts, etc. The “coasts”. In the states that matter, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, he won’t win, because those voters don’t want Medicare 4 All and they don’t want socialism.
2. Liz Warren is Bernie lite. She can’t win either for most of the same reasons.
3. Buttigieg can’t get enough black votes to win the nomination. All he can do is take away votes from the other moderate candidates which makes a Bernie candidacy more easy.
4. As much as I have tried to prop Joe Biden up he’s made one bonehead move after another. Why did he stay silent so long on the Hunter accusation. Why doesn’t he explain himself? Worst of all is the lack of energy he displays. We’re not even at our first primary yet and he’s so wounded I no longer have any idea what he’ll be like as the nominee.
5. Amy Klobuchar says all the right things but has no traction whatsoever. If she comes in 4th in Iowa where is she expected to make her move? She’s almost a non entity at this point.
6 Bloomberg’s plan appears to be working, but will he destroy the Democrats by winning it? He’s come in late and if he succeeds the narrative is going to be that a billionaire bought himself a nomination. Are progressives like AOc going to be able to put aside their resentment and vote for Mike Bloomberg? I have my doubts.
No idea how this all plays out but we’re not off to a great start. Get it together! Time is a wasting.
The Iowa mess is only the tip of the iceberg. In one sense I don’t really care; screwups in counting votes in February is not going to kill us in November. But in another sense it’s emblematic of an overall incompetence and poor thinking that is going to lead to Trump’s re-election. Let’s go over this again:
1. Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Donald Trump. Full stop. It’s not going to happen. A few days ago I wrote that if he’s the nominee he might have a 40-50% chance but that was being very generous. Bernie will lose because his biggest support largely comes from states that are already in the blue column: New York, California, Massachusetts, etc. The “coasts”. In the states that matter, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, he won’t win, because those voters don’t want Medicare 4 All and they don’t want socialism.
2. Liz Warren is Bernie lite. She can’t win either for most of the same reasons.
3. Buttigieg can’t get enough black votes to win the nomination. All he can do is take away votes from the other moderate candidates which makes a Bernie candidacy more easy.
4. As much as I have tried to prop Joe Biden up he’s made one bonehead move after another. Why did he stay silent so long on the Hunter accusation. Why doesn’t he explain himself? Worst of all is the lack of energy he displays. We’re not even at our first primary yet and he’s so wounded I no longer have any idea what he’ll be like as the nominee.
5. Amy Klobuchar says all the right things but has no traction whatsoever. If she comes in 4th in Iowa where is she expected to make her move? She’s almost a non entity at this point.
6 Bloomberg’s plan appears to be working, but will he destroy the Democrats by winning it? He’s come in late and if he succeeds the narrative is going to be that a billionaire bought himself a nomination. Are progressives like AOc going to be able to put aside their resentment and vote for Mike Bloomberg? I have my doubts.
No idea how this all plays out but we’re not off to a great start. Get it together! Time is a wasting.
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