The Democrats need to wake up! Update: And near the last second, THEY HAVE (1 Viewer)

[The Commish]

Michigan will tell us a lot. 4 years ago I rhoiught Hillary had the whole thing sewn up and then Bernie surged back with Michigan. So we’ll see. 

IMO, it's bigger than a state.  This needs to continue so that absolutely ZERO doubt is left in the mind of any reasonable person.

 

[ren hoek]

They don't have a cult of personality in Biden though.

Yes- they are delusional.  Biden will lose to Trump, and the Democrats are ok with that.  As long as they can continue offering nothing to working families and blame their failure on Russia, everything is fine.  A Biden nomination shores up victory for the corporate state, that’s the whole point.  

 

[timschochet]

IMO, it's bigger than a state.  This needs to continue so that absolutely ZERO doubt is left in the mind of any reasonable person.

If Bernie loses Michigan he won’t win any more states period I think. The race will be over. 

 

[timschochet]

Yes- they are delusional.  Biden will lose to Trump, and the Democrats are ok with that.  As long as they can continue offering nothing to working families and blame their failure on Russia, everything is fine.  A Biden nomination shores up victory for the corporate state, that’s the whole point.  

Putting everything else aside, I don’t think Democrats in general  believe Biden will lose, and I certainly don’t think any Democrats are OK with it if he does. 

 

[ShamrockPride]

Putting everything else aside, I don’t think Democrats in general  believe Biden will lose, and I certainly don’t think any Democrats are OK with it if he does. 

Well there ya have it folks. Tim is 100% confident just like 4 years ago for his guy. Definitely the person I’ll trust for political predictions. Let’s wrap this thing up.

 

[timschochet]

Well there ya have it folks. Tim is 100% confident just like 4 years ago for his guy. Definitely the person I’ll trust for political predictions. Let’s wrap this thing up.

I’m not anywhere near 100-% confident and I was not confident at all in 2016. And also the post you responded to had nothing to with my thoughts about the election, 

But since you asked I will repeat what I’ve written for the last year: I give Biden about 70% chance to beat Trump. That’s not the highest of any Democrat (I gave Klobuchar close to 80%) but it’s significantly more than I would have given Bernie (around 40% or less.) 

70% is pretty good and so I feel good about it. But it’s nowhere near a sure thing. 

 

[ren hoek]

Putting everything else aside, I don’t think Democrats in general  believe Biden will lose, and I certainly don’t think any Democrats are OK with it if he does. 

I didn’t mean to refer to Democrats in general.  I was talking about party operatives, consultants, politicians on the take from corporate lobbies- they have a huge vested interest in the system staying exactly the same and not disturbing it in any way.  They probably don’t want to deal with another 4 years of Trump, but they REALLY don’t want to deal with becoming obsolete.  Sanders has a different vision for the party than its current sellout grifter network, it’s a huge threat to their self-interest.  

 

[timschochet]

I didn’t mean to refer to Democrats in general.  I was talking about party operatives, consultants, politicians on the take from corporate lobbies- they have a huge vested interest in the system staying exactly the same and not disturbing it in any way.  They probably don’t want to deal with another 4 years of Trump, but they REALLY don’t want to deal with becoming obsolete.  Sanders has a different vision for the party than its current sellout grifter network, it’s a huge threat to their self-interest.  

Yes I get it. And I still don’t think these people you just named expect Biden to lose, and I don’t think they’re OK with it if he does. And thirdly, while they’re certainly opposed to Bernie, I don’t think they’d be made obsolete by his Presidency or would expect to be either. They might fear their power would be diminished for a time (though I personally would be doubtful even of this.) 

 

[Snotbubbles]

I’m not anywhere near 100-% confident and I was not confident at all in 2016. And also the post you responded to had nothing to with my thoughts about the election, 

But since you asked I will repeat what I’ve written for the last year: I give Biden about 70% chance to beat Trump. That’s not the highest of any Democrat (I gave Klobuchar close to 80%) but it’s significantly more than I would have given Bernie (around 40% or less.) 

70% is pretty good and so I feel good about it. But it’s nowhere near a sure thing. 

Trump is running virtually unopposed yet Trump just broke the record for voter turnout by an incumbent President in New Hampshire nearly doubling Obama's votes.  In Vermont and Minnesota his totals were the highest in 40 years.  In Maine he got the highest totals since Reagan.  In Colorado his turnout was greater than the last 3 primaries COMBINED (though they did change the format).  In Texas he got more votes than the top 4 Democratic candidates combined.  He has really motivated his base and unified the Republican voters behind him.  But that's not all he's doing...

25% of Trump rally's are now being attended by Democrats ~15% of whom didn't vote in 2016.  His rally in Nevada had registrants by 27% black and latinos, 32% who didn't vote in 2016. He not only electrifies his base supporters who actually go vote, he appears to be peaking the interest of new voters.  In 2016 Trump got 8% of the black vote and 28% of the latino.  In 2020 I think he breaks 10% on blacks and 30% on latinos.  If he does that this could be a landslide election of epic proportion.  

On the opposite side, the Democratic party is fractured.  Sanders supporters don't appear willing to vote for anyone but Bernie and Biden supporters won't vote Sanders.  At this point, the DNC is pushing Biden so that they can minimize the impact on down ticket candidates.  Don't be surprised if the Republicans gain seats in both Houses.  Joe Biden IMO has very little chance of beating Trump without a blue wave of black votes.  In the current economy, I just don't think that black voters are going to be all that motivated to go vote for Joe Biden.  They weren't with Hillary Clinton and they certainly aren't voting for Bernie Sanders.  I think enough of them will just sit this one out.

 

[timschochet]

Trump is running virtually unopposed yet Trump just broke the record for voter turnout by an incumbent President in New Hampshire nearly doubling Obama's votes.  In Vermont and Minnesota his totals were the highest in 40 years.  In Maine he got the highest totals since Reagan.  In Colorado his turnout was greater than the last 3 primaries COMBINED (though they did change the format).  In Texas he got more votes than the top 4 Democratic candidates combined.  He has really motivated his base and unified the Republican voters behind him.  But that's not all he's doing...

25% of Trump rally's are now being attended by Democrats ~15% of whom didn't vote in 2016.  His rally in Nevada had registrants by 27% black and latinos, 32% who didn't vote in 2016. He not only electrifies his base supporters who actually go vote, he appears to be peaking the interest of new voters.  In 2016 Trump got 8% of the black vote and 28% of the latino.  In 2020 I think he breaks 10% on blacks and 30% on latinos.  If he does that this could be a landslide election of epic proportion.  

On the opposite side, the Democratic party is fractured.  Sanders supporters don't appear willing to vote for anyone but Bernie and Biden supporters won't vote Sanders.  At this point, the DNC is pushing Biden so that they can minimize the impact on down ticket candidates.  Don't be surprised if the Republicans gain seats in both Houses.  Joe Biden IMO has very little chance of beating Trump without a blue wave of black votes.  In the current economy, I just don't think that black voters are going to be all that motivated to go vote for Joe Biden.  They weren't with Hillary Clinton and they certainly aren't voting for Bernie Sanders.  I think enough of them will just sit this one out.

Well it’s safe to say I disagree with almost all of this- not with the few facts of course, but with your many interpretations and predictions. But we’ll get to find out how correct you are. 

 

[roadkill1292]

If Trump has succeeded in winning away millions of 2016 Democratic voters, then Dems do indeed stand no chance in November. And that means that the country and its democracy is in real trouble.

 

[The Commish]

Trump is running virtually unopposed yet Trump just broke the record for voter turnout by an incumbent President in New Hampshire nearly doubling Obama's votes.  In Vermont and Minnesota his totals were the highest in 40 years.  In Maine he got the highest totals since Reagan.  In Colorado his turnout was greater than the last 3 primaries COMBINED (though they did change the format).  In Texas he got more votes than the top 4 Democratic candidates combined.  He has really motivated his base and unified the Republican voters behind him.  But that's not all he's doing...

25% of Trump rally's are now being attended by Democrats ~15% of whom didn't vote in 2016.  His rally in Nevada had registrants by 27% black and latinos, 32% who didn't vote in 2016. He not only electrifies his base supporters who actually go vote, he appears to be peaking the interest of new voters.  In 2016 Trump got 8% of the black vote and 28% of the latino.  In 2020 I think he breaks 10% on blacks and 30% on latinos.  If he does that this could be a landslide election of epic proportion.  

On the opposite side, the Democratic party is fractured.  Sanders supporters don't appear willing to vote for anyone but Bernie and Biden supporters won't vote Sanders.  At this point, the DNC is pushing Biden so that they can minimize the impact on down ticket candidates.  Don't be surprised if the Republicans gain seats in both Houses.  Joe Biden IMO has very little chance of beating Trump without a blue wave of black votes.  In the current economy, I just don't think that black voters are going to be all that motivated to go vote for Joe Biden.  They weren't with Hillary Clinton and they certainly aren't voting for Bernie Sanders.  I think enough of them will just sit this one out.

Do people attending Trump rallies have to fill out a demographics questionnaire of some sort? 

Wondering how any of this is known/verified.  I'm not saying it's false.  I'm just wondering how its known to be true.

 

[zftcg]

Do people attending Trump rallies have to fill out a demographics questionnaire of some sort? 

Wondering how any of this is known/verified.  I'm not saying it's false.  I'm just wondering how its known to be true.

I had the same thought. They do have a sophisticated data operation, so it's possible they ask people to register for tickets and match that up against their database.

Of course, if that's the case it means these numbers are coming from the campaign and could well be spin. 

I don't particularly care either way. I've never understood the need to pre-spin an upcoming event that will have a certain outcome. The fundamentals all seem to suggest that this will be a close election, but that could be wrong. Ultimately, as Tim says, we will find out in November what the truth is. Any arguments before that moment are kind of pointless.

 

[The Commish]

I had the same thought. They do have a sophisticated data operation, so it's possible they ask people to register for tickets and match that up against their database.

Of course, if that's the case it means these numbers are coming from the campaign and could well be spin. 

I don't particularly care either way. I've never understood the need to pre-spin an upcoming event that will have a certain outcome. The fundamentals all seem to suggest that this will be a close election, but that could be wrong. Ultimately, as Tim says, we will find out in November what the truth is. Any arguments before that moment are kind of pointless.

I'm sure that's not true GB...there's only one reason.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Do people attending Trump rallies have to fill out a demographics questionnaire of some sort? 

Wondering how any of this is known/verified.  I'm not saying it's false.  I'm just wondering how its known to be true.

Yes.  They have to register.

EDIT: Of course, people could lie about the demographics in the registration.  

 

[Snotbubbles]

If Trump has succeeded in winning away millions of 2016 Democratic voters, then Dems do indeed stand no chance in November. And that means that the country and its democracy is in real trouble.

Why is the democracy in trouble?

 

[The Commish]

Yes.  They have to register.

There's a difference between registering and filling out details like the ones presented.  That's why I asked the question and still wondering how we answer it with respect to knowing/verifying.

 

[roadkill1292]

Why is the democracy in trouble?

Because a majority of voters will have signaled clearly that they support the guy and the party that doesn't hold it in high esteem. The GOP only believes in democracy when they win.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Because a majority of voters will have signaled clearly that they support the guy and the party that doesn't hold it in high esteem. The GOP only believes in democracy when they win.

So by that line of reasoning, if you believe in democracy, you want the GOP to win.