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Nationally, Hillary gained a couple points after the first debate in 2016. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-first-presidential-debate-shake-up-the-race/
And while polls do get more accurate the closer we get to November, the difference between labor day polls and election day polls is smaller than you might think.
FACT CHECK:
Oh. State polls.
So this is actually pretty consistent with the graph I just posted, showing national polls getting about 1 point more accurate between labor day and election day. I hardly think this demonstrates the uselessness of pre-debate polling.
He's whistling past the graveyard. This race is over. In 2016 people, especially a certain kind of people (white, male, no college degree), were looking for any excuse not to vote for Hillary. She was that obnoxious. Consequently her numbers were always soft, and "undecideds" broke hard for the iconoclast Trump.
I have relatives that would seriously consider moving to another state if this happens. Or at least make threats to doing so like some of those celebs on Twitter did when Trump won.
Based on what? 95% of probable voters claim to have their minds made up. "The gap" here is miniscule compared to other years where it's 20-25% undecided.
I've tried to explain this numerous times to the hardcore trumpers in my circle. They don't seem to buy into the Hillary hatred, but it was the main cause of where we are now IMO. And now, on top of Joe not having that hatred stigma to him, I believe the Trump hatred crowd is by far greater this go around and will show up on election day.
That's from a week ago, and it's actually a bad sign for Trump. Trafalgar consistently overestimated Trump's support in their 2016 polling — they were over by 2.8 points in Florida, over by 1.4 points in North Carolina, and over by 1.7 points in Michigan.
That same Trafalgar poll was 46.6% Trump 45.2% Biden in August (14-23). I wouldn't see this September poll as good news if I were a Trump supporter.
Whoa Nellie. RASMUSSEN had Biden up by 8? That’s so very, very bad for Trump.Rasmussen national poll:
Biden 51%
Trump 43%
I think Harrison has a slugger's chance here, and is driving some of this result (bringing more supporters into the tent, so to speak).
If Trump is waylaid by COVID, in person turnout for the GOP will plummet. That means the mail-in advantage of the Dems el m may carry some races that would have otherwise gone GOP.
I'm in the same boat, to some extent. Get Trump out - he's awful - but I'm not comfortable voting Blue into office up and down the ticket. And that's OK.
Only 21% of voters said that Trump won the debate. Meanwhile, 65% disapproved of his conduct and 48% said they supported Trump less afterwards.
I basically ignore all individual polls. There is simply too big of an error rate to rely on a single poll.USC tracking poll shows a narrowing race
14-day
Biden 51
Trump 44
7-day
Biden 49
Trump 46
As with many polls, this has been both panned and praised by both sides.
Nate Cohn@Nate_Cohn · 5mUSC tracking poll shows a narrowing race
14-day
Biden 51
Trump 44
7-day
Biden 49
Trump 46
As with many polls, this has been both panned and praised by both sides.
i have also fixed a technical error in my opinion of this poll and now think its terrific
I am not an election honk, I don't follow this stuff very well.
Given the fact that only last month 9 in 10 Republicans insisted that Trump was doing an outstanding job with regard to Covid, this is an extremely significant change.Only 5 in 10?
