Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Even if remotely accurate, this will make it a landslide of historic proportions. What is the worst loss ever for an incumbent?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
caustic
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
johnnycakes
Footballguy
Link to WSJ article that discusses the poll in more detail.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-scores-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-poll-after-debate-11601816400?st=imfkpjbykmrdr34
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
There are still many states that are a lock for Trump; at least 125 electoral votes at a minimum. Most likely scenarios have him at 163-187, with a best case scenario being 203. He needs to flip AZ/FL/GA/NC or OH/PA/WI won’t matter, though.
Needs a perfect storm and that seems highly unlikely.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
The most frequent outcome in the 538 model has Trump around 125. Still not that likely, but realistic.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
270 to win has about 9 predictive models. Some are polling, some are consensus (they’ll come into alignment more as we get closer to the election.)
The one thing I’m worried about the most is turnout and especially mail-in ballots. Pollsters claim they’ve corrected the modeling to account for the underreported Trump support in the last election. I’m dubious. And I figure they’ll pull any shenanigans they can think of to suppress votes in Atlanta, Charlotte, Philly, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee.
Its seemingly the same story in many close states. Large urban areas with a good turnout will swing to powder blue; if they don’t have a cushion from that, those states could all turn pink.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I suspect the corrections for 2016 turnout are an overreaction. I think they are underestimating the Biden lead.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
timschochet
Footballguy
As we get closer to the election in the next few weeks and it becomes clearer to most folks how this is going to turn out, I think there will be less talk of shenanigans in general. People aren’t going to put themselves on the line for a Trump win if it’s not going to happen.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
That is a big result for Biden. There had been some evidence of a tightening race there.
squistion
Footballguy
That was pre-debate, this is now.
If this is accurate I don't think Trump can make up the 8 point difference is less than a month before election day.
caustic
Footballguy
FWIW, their pre-debate survey of AZ had Biden up 9, which was also much better than the average poll. For one reason or another, NYT/Siena has been pretty favorable for Biden in AZ this cycle.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Cook has Arizona as lean D, but if another high quality pool backs this up, I think they move to likely D.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Looking at what fivethirtyeight is tracking for this race, it seems like this NYT/Siena poll is the first they've had on the race for a week or so. It'll be interesting to see if / how the other polls change, but Biden +1 to +4 was where things seemed to be.
caustic
Footballguy
WDIV/Detroit News (B/C):
MICHIGAN
Biden 48%
Trump 39%
Looking under the hood, this jumps out:
“There has been a major shift among voters over the age of 65 towards Joe Biden. Older voters now support Biden over Trump by a margin of 59.1%-29.2% — a nearly 30-point lead for Joe Biden. Biden led senior voters by 7.5% in the post-convention survey. Senior voters have shifted by 22 points since early September.”
Normal caveats w/r/t margin of error on crosstabs apply here, but that is a pretty awful result for Trump.
MICHIGAN
Biden 48%
Trump 39%
Looking under the hood, this jumps out:
“There has been a major shift among voters over the age of 65 towards Joe Biden. Older voters now support Biden over Trump by a margin of 59.1%-29.2% — a nearly 30-point lead for Joe Biden. Biden led senior voters by 7.5% in the post-convention survey. Senior voters have shifted by 22 points since early September.”
Normal caveats w/r/t margin of error on crosstabs apply here, but that is a pretty awful result for Trump.
According to data from the last month or so, what swing states is Trump actually winning in?
It appears Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina are all very close, but most of these are states a Republican (including Trump in 16) should be winning. States like Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all seem to be solidly in the Biden camp.
Even if the polling is wrong in the state polling again in some of these states, he may be too far down for it to matter.
Questions on the polling data:
- Is there a secret Trump vote that's even more pronounced than currently thought? I would say that I have had conversations with some people who believe this, but that's enough to claim any large polling errors.
- Most polling show Democrats are being sampled higher than Republicans. For example, I think the NBC/WSJ poll showed 45% Democrats and 36% Republicans. Why are these samples tilted to this degree? Does this suggest that pollsters believe there are more Democrats than Republicans, and sample more of them as a result? If not, what is the reasoning for this?
It appears Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina are all very close, but most of these are states a Republican (including Trump in 16) should be winning. States like Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all seem to be solidly in the Biden camp.
Even if the polling is wrong in the state polling again in some of these states, he may be too far down for it to matter.
Questions on the polling data:
- Is there a secret Trump vote that's even more pronounced than currently thought? I would say that I have had conversations with some people who believe this, but that's enough to claim any large polling errors.
- Most polling show Democrats are being sampled higher than Republicans. For example, I think the NBC/WSJ poll showed 45% Democrats and 36% Republicans. Why are these samples tilted to this degree? Does this suggest that pollsters believe there are more Democrats than Republicans, and sample more of them as a result? If not, what is the reasoning for this?
caustic
Footballguy
1.) The strongest form of the "shy Trump voter" theory -- that Trump voters are afraid to express their intentions to pollsters for fear of being judged -- seems to be wrong. If it was true, we'd expect Trump to perform better in automated/online polls in which respondents don't have to talk to a live person, but we don't actually see much of a gap between live-caller and non-live-caller polls.
That's not to say the polls can't be underestimating Trump support, though. If they are, the main reason is probably non-response bias. White people with low levels of social trust and no college degree are much less likely to answer the phone when an unknown number is calling, and that's a very pro-Trump demographic. Undersampling these people was the main source of polling error in 2016. To correct this, lots of pollsters now weight their samples by educational attainment -- this fixes some (but not all) of the problem. And even if white/non-college voters are undersampled again this year, it probably won't result in quite as much error, because Biden is doing much better with that demographic relative to Clinton.
2.) Based on the General Social Survey and American National Election Survey, two gold-standard nonpartisan surveys, there are in fact more people who identify as Democrats -- and there have been for decades. The most recent figures where D+8 (GSS) and D+7 (ANES). Different pollsters have different methods of handling partisanship. For example, when polling states that have party-based registration, NYT/Siena uses a quota. In their recently released poll of AZ they purposefully collected a sample that was R+4 in registration.
You can't do that in national polls, though, since you don't actually register by party in 19 states. You can ask for party ID, as they did in that NBC/WSJ poll, but most pollsters don't weight by it because it's fairly volatile (and is often just a lagging indicator of voting intent). National pollsters will typically weight by more reliable variables like age, race, sex, etc. and sometimes that results in a sample that has a strange partisan skew. I wouldn't worry about it much though, because the national polls are some of the best we have. Even in 2016, the national polls were very accurate despite the state polls having some issues. Usually when folks begin to pick apart the partisan composition of a poll, it means they're trying to discredit some bad results for their preferred candidate.
New CNN post-debate Poll
Biden - 57%
Trump - 41%
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/06/rel12b.-.2020.pdf
Biden - 57%
Trump - 41%
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/06/rel12b.-.2020.pdf
H Jass
Footballguy
yeah - Polls have been moving in that direction, but still a little early to completely buy into it.That is a crazy number.
But, elections are often a confidence game, where voters tend to flock to the candidate they think is going to win. And, if there are a few more post-debate polls in this range, the Trump Party is in real trouble up and down the ballot. These polls will become a self-fulling prophecy.
And, for the down-ballot candidates - most are already pot committed to a Trump strategy - so this has to be very scary for them to see, knowing its too late to reconsider their election strategy.
Silver's thoughts:
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
Now, it's pretty clear that Biden has gained ground, from +7 before to +8 or probably more like +9 once we've thrown today's polls into our average, but with a +8 or a +9 you're going to get your occasional +3s (TIPP) or +16s (CNN) and that's OK.
In fact, it's good! It's good that pollsters are publishing these results instead of sitting on them. And this is one of those times when a large movement in the race is *plausible*. But we have a lot of polling at it mostly suggests more modest gains for Biden.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
Now, it's pretty clear that Biden has gained ground, from +7 before to +8 or probably more like +9 once we've thrown today's polls into our average, but with a +8 or a +9 you're going to get your occasional +3s (TIPP) or +16s (CNN) and that's OK.
In fact, it's good! It's good that pollsters are publishing these results instead of sitting on them. And this is one of those times when a large movement in the race is *plausible*. But we have a lot of polling at it mostly suggests more modest gains for Biden.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
The 65+ percentages are just eye popping in the last two polls. Trump's support with that group has simply fallen off a cliff and to have any chance he has to stop that bleeding.
West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.
Presidential vote
choice:
Early October
RV. HLT. LLT
Biden 54% 54% 53%
Trump 42% 43% 45%
Late August
Biden 49% 49% 48%
Trump 45% 46% 47%
Mid July
Biden 53% 52% 51%
Trump 40% 42% 44%
RV - registered voters
HLT - High Likely Turnout
LLT - Low Likely Turnout
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_100620/
Presidential vote
choice:
Early October
RV. HLT. LLT
Biden 54% 54% 53%
Trump 42% 43% 45%
Late August
Biden 49% 49% 48%
Trump 45% 46% 47%
Mid July
Biden 53% 52% 51%
Trump 40% 42% 44%
RV - registered voters
HLT - High Likely Turnout
LLT - Low Likely Turnout
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_100620/
Last edited by a moderator:
caustic
Footballguy
A+ pollster -- that's disastrous for Trump. Monmouth consistently produced some of his best polls last month.West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.
RV. HLT. LLT
Biden 54% 54% 53%
Trump 42% 43% 45%
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
It's just really, really hard to see Trump winning at this point even with possible sampling error and his Electoral College advantage. Even if there is another "surprise" type event, movement in the polls have been modest this season. Trump is running out of time and people are already voting.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Setting aside the Electoral College for a moment - Trump is on pace to have the highest national vote deficit of any incumbent president.
Carter lost the national vote by 8.4M
Hoover - 7M
GHWB - 5.8M
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Exactly - a lot of people were confident 4 years ago at around this time and look at what happened.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Yeah, but you have to divide by 330m, or 7.8b to scale it properly. Your choice which denominator to choose, really.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Approval with likely voters still hanging steady at a 43.8% adjusted average at fivethirtyeight.
That said, today's Rassmussen total approval rating of 45% is the lowest it's been in their poll since late July.
That said, today's Rassmussen total approval rating of 45% is the lowest it's been in their poll since late July.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
One of the things I've found odd is FiveThirtyEight has Trump's approval trending up but his polling number haven't.
It will be interesting to see the long-term ramifications here - is this a permanent shift in voter thinking, or a temporary move only while he was physically in the hospital?
Rirruto
Footballguy
Definitely not. Here's the 538 breakdown for 2016. It can't be apples to apples obviously, but Clinton was at 78% chance to win 4 years ago. She spiked way up after the Access Hollywood tapes, which were released on October 7. Trump closed a ton of ground after the Comey announcement on October 28. There's still basically a lifetime to go at this point.
caustic
Footballguy
Some other nuggets from the surveyUSA poll:
13% of Trump voters say they will protest the outcome of the election if Biden wins, 5% say they will take to the streets. 77%, though, say they will accept President-elect Biden.
Of those familiar with Roe v. Wade (81% of respondents), 62% say it should remain the law of the land while only 23% want it overturned. A plurality of Trump supporters (40%) want it to be upheld.
Among "very conservative" voters, 26% say "the law is what the President of the United States says it is." This is up from 6% in October 2019. 72% say "no person is above the law," down from 90% a year ago.
Biden leads suburban *men* 51-44. He has a 21-point lead with suburban women, 58-37.
Voters were asked whether, financially, they were "falling behind," "just getting by," "making ends meet," "setting aside some for a rainy day," or "prospering." Trump leads only among those who say they are prospering.
13% of Trump voters say they will protest the outcome of the election if Biden wins, 5% say they will take to the streets. 77%, though, say they will accept President-elect Biden.
Of those familiar with Roe v. Wade (81% of respondents), 62% say it should remain the law of the land while only 23% want it overturned. A plurality of Trump supporters (40%) want it to be upheld.
Among "very conservative" voters, 26% say "the law is what the President of the United States says it is." This is up from 6% in October 2019. 72% say "no person is above the law," down from 90% a year ago.
Biden leads suburban *men* 51-44. He has a 21-point lead with suburban women, 58-37.
Voters were asked whether, financially, they were "falling behind," "just getting by," "making ends meet," "setting aside some for a rainy day," or "prospering." Trump leads only among those who say they are prospering.
All valid points, of course.
But I would posit this year is different for three reasons:
1. Most polls have adjusted their methodology in 2020 to account for a shift in voters who are more favorable towards Trump - meaning there is unlikely to be another "hidden" shift.
2. In 2016, voters were voting on the promise of what a Trump presidency might look like - now everyone knows what a Trump presidency looks like, and you either like it, or you don't. Nobody is really voting on potential any more.
3. There is a lot of early voting going on this year - those votes are already cast.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
The spread isn't as eye-popping as the fact that Biden is over 50%. Hillary's average was 46.8% on Election Day. Plus, there were 2 polls in early November 2016 that were favorable to Trump....but he hasn't had a favorable poll in PA in 2020 since August.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I've noticed that too. It seemed like approval rating had a good correlation with results in 2016, I'm following this number this year to see if that is the case in this election too. It makes me temper expectations in regard to what the other polling numbers indicate.
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
I feel reasonably confident now saying Biden is going to get over 50% of the total popular vote. Even in states Trump is still likely to carry easily it won't be by the margins he did in 2016, and large states like Texas and Georgia will be tighter. That combined with fewer votes going to third parties should easily tip Biden 2-3% points above Clinton's 48.5%.
The Commish
Footballguy
Might have something to do with the fact his SS approach would have it completely bankrupted in a mere 2-3 years. Just spitballin' here.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For those that put stock and faith in 538's model (which is certainly open for debate), they have Biden sitting at 82% to win. On a state by state basis, here are the states where they have him 80% or better to win . . .
DC - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 75.5 in polls
MA - 11 delegates - 99% to win - Up 36.3 in polls
MD - 10 delegates - 99% to win - Up 31.7 in polls
VT - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 31.2 in polls
CA - 55 delegates - 99% to win - Up 30.8 in polls
NY - 29 delegates - 99% to win - Up 29.8 in polls
HI - 4 delegates - 99% to win - Up 29.6 in polls
WA - 12 delegates - 99% to win - Up 26.8 in polls
DE - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 24.1 in polls
CT - 7 delegates - 99% to win - Up 23.6 in polls
RI - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 23.2 in polls
IL - 20 delegates - 99% to win - Up 17.4 in polls
NJ - 14 delegates - 98% to win - Up 30.0 in polls
VA - 13 delegates - 98% to win - Up 11.8 in polls
ME1 - 1 delegate - 97% to win - Up 24.6 in polls
OR - 7 delegates - 96% to win - Up 18.4 in polls
NM - 5 delegates - 96% to win - Up 13.1 in polls
CO - 9 delegates - 92% to win - Up 12.3 in polls
MN - 10 delegates - 90% to win - Up 9.1 in polls
MI - 16 delegates - 90% to win - Up 7.3 in polls
ME - 2 delegates - 89% to win - Up 15.2 in polls
NV - 6 delegates - 84% to win - Up 6.6 in polls
PA - 20 delegates - 84% to win - Up 6.6 in polls
WI - 10 delegates - 83% to win - Up 6.9 in polls
NH - 4 delegates - 80% to win - Up 9.7 in polls
TOTAL - 278 delegates
Also currently leading in:
NE2 - 1 delegate - 70% to win - Up 6.2 in polls
AZ - 11 delegates - 66% to win - Up 4.4 in polls
FL - 29 delegates - 65% to win - Up 3.3 in polls
NC - 15 delegates - 58% to win - Up 2.0 in polls
ME2 - 1 delegate - 53% to win - Up 3.9 in polls
OH - 18 delegates - 51% to win - Up 0.5 in polls
I won't bother listing the other states that Trump is leading in ( a couple of which could go either way). Even if Trump won all the ones I didn't list AND all the ones on that short list above including OH and FL, Trump still would need to break into that longer list to win to get to 270 delegates. That would mean Trump would have to win one or two states on that list to pull off the victory. Maybe the polls are off (certainly possible), maybe something happens that swings the polls some (also a possibility), but Trump certainly looks like he is running out of paths to win the election if the polls are accurate (which is always open to debate). Of course, Trump could also run interference to challenge the results and claim fraud, but he seemingly is far enough behind that even allegations and recounts may not come into play (again, if the polls are close to accurate).
DC - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 75.5 in polls
MA - 11 delegates - 99% to win - Up 36.3 in polls
MD - 10 delegates - 99% to win - Up 31.7 in polls
VT - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 31.2 in polls
CA - 55 delegates - 99% to win - Up 30.8 in polls
NY - 29 delegates - 99% to win - Up 29.8 in polls
HI - 4 delegates - 99% to win - Up 29.6 in polls
WA - 12 delegates - 99% to win - Up 26.8 in polls
DE - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 24.1 in polls
CT - 7 delegates - 99% to win - Up 23.6 in polls
RI - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 23.2 in polls
IL - 20 delegates - 99% to win - Up 17.4 in polls
NJ - 14 delegates - 98% to win - Up 30.0 in polls
VA - 13 delegates - 98% to win - Up 11.8 in polls
ME1 - 1 delegate - 97% to win - Up 24.6 in polls
OR - 7 delegates - 96% to win - Up 18.4 in polls
NM - 5 delegates - 96% to win - Up 13.1 in polls
CO - 9 delegates - 92% to win - Up 12.3 in polls
MN - 10 delegates - 90% to win - Up 9.1 in polls
MI - 16 delegates - 90% to win - Up 7.3 in polls
ME - 2 delegates - 89% to win - Up 15.2 in polls
NV - 6 delegates - 84% to win - Up 6.6 in polls
PA - 20 delegates - 84% to win - Up 6.6 in polls
WI - 10 delegates - 83% to win - Up 6.9 in polls
NH - 4 delegates - 80% to win - Up 9.7 in polls
TOTAL - 278 delegates
Also currently leading in:
NE2 - 1 delegate - 70% to win - Up 6.2 in polls
AZ - 11 delegates - 66% to win - Up 4.4 in polls
FL - 29 delegates - 65% to win - Up 3.3 in polls
NC - 15 delegates - 58% to win - Up 2.0 in polls
ME2 - 1 delegate - 53% to win - Up 3.9 in polls
OH - 18 delegates - 51% to win - Up 0.5 in polls
I won't bother listing the other states that Trump is leading in ( a couple of which could go either way). Even if Trump won all the ones I didn't list AND all the ones on that short list above including OH and FL, Trump still would need to break into that longer list to win to get to 270 delegates. That would mean Trump would have to win one or two states on that list to pull off the victory. Maybe the polls are off (certainly possible), maybe something happens that swings the polls some (also a possibility), but Trump certainly looks like he is running out of paths to win the election if the polls are accurate (which is always open to debate). Of course, Trump could also run interference to challenge the results and claim fraud, but he seemingly is far enough behind that even allegations and recounts may not come into play (again, if the polls are close to accurate).
Last edited by a moderator:
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Might also have something to do with the fact that this pandemic has the biggest impact among the elderly and Trump has done worse than nothing about it.
Similar threads
