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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread

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I am a middle of the road democrat who is doing well and had friends on both sides. I am fiscally conservative, love guns, and hated both Hilary and Trump in 2016 and voted 3rd party last time. This year I voted Biden and Dem party in a battleground state. Lately, I have been listening to a lot of podcasts the election and see the data. I think the loud majority and single party voters (guns, abortion, taxes, like some or many of my priveleged neighbors) will vote Trump. Most others will vote against the erosion of our democracy. I predict very comfortable Biden win pending a weird last week. Trump is so horrible. That is my $0.02. Maybe not super data based but 538 is a key podcast, plus NPR listed the following today, not sure of data source but likely aggregated:

Texas: Trump 47.6%-47.5% (Trump +0.1)
Georgia: Biden 47.6%-47.2% (Biden +0.4)
Iowa: Biden 47.5%-46.3% (Biden +1.2)
Ohio: Trump 47.9%-46.5% (Trump +1.4)
Florida: Biden 49.1%-46.6% (Biden +2.5)
North Carolina: Biden 49.2%-46.6% (Biden +2.6)
Arizona: Biden 48.7%-46% (Biden +2.7)
Pennsylvania: Biden 50.4%-44.7% (Biden +5.7)
Nevada: Biden 50.2%-43.6% (Biden +6.2)
Wisconsin: Biden 50.8%-44.1% (Biden +6.7)
Michigan: Biden 50.5%-43% (Biden +7.5)
Minnesota: Biden 50.6%-42.7% (Biden +7.9

Edited by JFT Ben
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Any state less than +3 Biden will be a Trump win.

Biden aint winning Florida and he aint winning Texas.

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Just now, Gr00vus said:

Any state less than +3 Biden will be a Trump win.

Biden aint winning Florida and he aint winning Texas.

The fact that Biden is within 3 in Texas is something to behold though, isn't it?

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1 minute ago, TheMagus said:

The fact that Biden is within 3 in Texas is something to behold though, isn't it?

Texas's demographics have been shifting for a while. Anyways, losing by just a little isn't really comforting in this election.

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7 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Any state less than +3 Biden will be a Trump win.

Biden aint winning Florida and he aint winning Texas.

Hot take.

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They’ve been talking about Texas being a swing state forever. It ain’t happening. The major cities are liberal and have liberal leadership but there’s a ton of small and mid-sized towns that are very republican and they make up the bulk of Texas voters. The other thing is Hispanics vote less than African Americans and don’t vote 90% democrat like African Americans. It’s more like 60%. 
 

Biden doesn’t need Georgia, Texas, NC or Florida. He does however need PA, MI & WI. 
 

The one thing that gives me hope is people seem more energized vs 2016. Pretty sure there were way more primary voters this time around. Also Amy Cohen Barrett getting confirmed could potentially energize Democrat voters.

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20 minutes ago, TheMagus said:

The fact that Biden is within 3 in Texas is something to behold though, isn't it?

It's very interesting. It will be interesting in 2022 and beyond to see what Republicans get back if Trump is no longer involved.

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ABC News / WaPo (A+):

MICHIGAN
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

WISCONSIN
Biden 57%
Trump 40%
:eek:

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I don't believe Biden is +17 in Wisconsin but it makes me extremely confident he is at least +1 there.

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2 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I don't believe Biden is +17 in Wisconsin but it makes me extremely confident he is at least +1 there.

Yeah I live in Trump country part of WI, I don't see +17.  Am seeing a couple more Biden signs so guess that is encouraging.  The thing that is surprising me in WI is business with Trump signs/flags.  I get he's good for your taxes but is it really worth alienating part of your customer base to pledge your allegiance to the guy??  Anyhow a month ago I was really worried about WI, I still am but these polls I guess make me feel a little better...

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17 minutes ago, caustic said:

ABC News / WaPo (A+):

MICHIGAN
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

WISCONSIN
Biden 57%
Trump 40%
:eek:

Holy mother of god 

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9 hours ago, JFT Ben said:

Most others will vote against the erosion of our democracy

I'm not going to argue with your response, but I'd like to understand why you think Trump is eroding our republic.

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For those of you who follow this obsessively (not me of course), Biden just hit an all-time high of 89% win probability on 538.

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2 minutes ago, caustic said:

For those of you who follow this obsessively (not me of course), Biden just hit an all-time high of 89% win probability on 538.

I saw that. Nate Silver is essentially suggesting the conservative polls showing Trump ahead in some battleground states are essentially inaccurate and are basically being released to show Trump has taken the lead when he has not. Not sure how someone can disprove a poll result, but he seems pretty resolute that those polls aren't the real numbers.

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5 minutes ago, caustic said:

For those of you who follow this obsessively (not me of course), Biden just hit an all-time high of 89% win probability on 538.

I don't follow 538 obsessively...I follow Caustic obsessively!

Keep up the great work.  You are an institution within this thread.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

I saw that. Nate Silver is essentially suggesting the conservative polls showing Trump ahead in some battleground states are essentially inaccurate and are basically being released to show Trump has taken the lead when he has not. Not sure how someone can disprove a poll result, but he seems pretty resolute that those polls aren't the real numbers.

Not surprising.  All these models feels a bit like this is the early days of search engines.  538 is battling to become the Google of models and just like people have been optimizing search for years (sometimes falsely) reverse engineering the algorithm to get a better result seems the logical next step.  Gotta convince people you still have a chance if you want to have a chance.

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8 hours ago, Gachi said:

They’ve been talking about Texas being a swing state forever. It ain’t happening. The major cities are liberal and have liberal leadership but there’s a ton of small and mid-sized towns that are very republican and they make up the bulk of Texas voters. The other thing is Hispanics vote less than African Americans and don’t vote 90% democrat like African Americans. It’s more like 60%. 
 

Biden doesn’t need Georgia, Texas, NC or Florida. He does however need PA, MI & WI. 
 

The one thing that gives me hope is people seem more energized vs 2016. Pretty sure there were way more primary voters this time around. Also Amy Cohen Barrett getting confirmed could potentially energize Democrat voters.

I think (hope) this might keep some republicans at home. They held their nose and voted for Trump BECAUSE of the court... they have that conservative majority now.

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4 minutes ago, tuffnutt said:

I think (hope) this might keep some republicans at home. They held their nose and voted for Trump BECAUSE of the court... they have that conservative majority now.

Yes I argued this was a distinct possibility that not only would it decrease enthusiasm but get them to vote against because they already got what they wanted. I think Mitch pushed this through knowing that it likely will cause them to use the Executive and the Senate because there’s a good chance that will happen either way.

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15 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

Not surprising.  All these models feels a bit like this is the early days of search engines.  538 is battling to become the Google of models and just like people have been optimizing search for years (sometimes falsely) reverse engineering the algorithm to get a better result seems the logical next step.  Gotta convince people you still have a chance if you want to have a chance.

Silver absolutely knows what he’s doing and had Trump with far better odds than almost everybody in 2016. They nailed 2018 too. 

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Cook Political Report moved Texas from Lean R to Tossup. :thumbup: 

Texas is a state that Biden doesn't need to win, but it is clear that it's more competitive than ever. Texas' shift from Lean Republican to Toss Up shouldn't come as a surprise. Recent polling in the state — both public and private - shows a 2-4 point race. That's pretty much in line with the hotly contested 2018 Senate race in the state where Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke 51 percent to 48 percent. 

A huge surge in early vote (as of October 26th, almost half of Texas' registered voters had already cast a ballot) suggests that we could see record turnout in a state that has added many new residents since 2016. That also adds a level of uncertainty to the equation. 

Statewide and district level polling show Biden running strong in and around metro suburban parts of the state, but underperforming with Latino voters. In his analysis of the New York Times/Siena poll (10/20-25) of the state, the New York Times' Nate Cohn writes that "Biden has a lead of only 57 percent to 34 percent among that group, somewhat beneath most estimates of Mrs. Clinton's support among Hispanic voters four years ago. The finding broadly tracks with national surveys, which have shown Mr. Trump improving among Hispanic voters compared with his 2016 standing. Similarly, Hispanic voters in the Times/Siena poll say they backed Mrs. Clinton by a margin of 60 percent to 29 percent."

But, it's also the case that we don't have a whole lot of experience with Texas as a battleground state. Neither do national pollsters. In an analysis of polling errors in 2016 and 2018, my colleague David Wasserman wrote this week that polls in the Southwest "undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018."

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Holy mother of god 

I read this in a Chris Farley voice.

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1 hour ago, caustic said:

ABC News / WaPo (A+):

MICHIGAN
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

WISCONSIN
Biden 57%
Trump 40%
:eek:

Wisconsin will have 40000 new COVID cases this week and can expect 200-300 deaths this coming week as well. May explain a drop 

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21 minutes ago, Greedo said:

I read this in a Chris Farley voice.

I now want to read and say everything in a Chris Farley/Foley voice

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25 minutes ago, Greedo said:

I read this in a Chris Farley voice.

As God intended 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Silver absolutely knows what he’s doing and had Trump with far better odds than almost everybody in 2016. They nailed 2018 too. 

I agree but there are a number of wildcards at play this year that don't get measured by polls. Potential high numbers of rejected mail in ballots, day of turnout due to covid, Nov 3 weather, possible intimidation/violence at the polls, legal maneuvers, etc. 

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22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I agree but there are a number of wildcards at play this year that don't get measured by polls. Potential high numbers of rejected mail in ballots, day of turnout due to covid, Nov 3 weather, possible intimidation/violence at the polls, legal maneuvers, etc. 

I believe that’s part of the 11-12%

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11 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

Any state less than +3 Biden will be a Trump win.

Biden aint winning Florida and he aint winning Texas.

Polling errors happen both ways.  Yes, we could have a polling error that repeats 2016 but don't forget that 2012 had a polling error the other way.  People just forget about it since before the polling error it had a slight Obama lead compared to where his victory ended up.  

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9 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

Why can't biden win Florida 

He can.  

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2 hours ago, Morton Muffley said:

I don't follow 538 obsessively...I follow Caustic obsessively!

Keep up the great work.  You are an institution within this thread.

x2.  The man is doing the lord's work in here.  Thanks @caustic

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On 10/27/2020 at 9:33 AM, rickroll said:

Starting to see the Comey letter effect on RCP’s tracker for the six top battleground states.  Biden’s lead over Trump was even with Hillary 2016 a week ago.  Now Biden is up a full point.

up to 1.7

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20 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

Why can't biden win Florida 

He can but I don’t think anyone wants to focus on it as a must-win after recent heartbreaks there. I think everyone wants to focus on pathways that don’t include winning Florida. Winning Florida is likely the one way that we have a declared winner on Tuesday. 

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42 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Polling errors happen both ways.  Yes, we could have a polling error that repeats 2016 but don't forget that 2012 had a polling error the other way.  People just forget about it since before the polling error it had a slight Obama lead compared to where his victory ended up.  

I don't want to speak for Groovus but I don't think polling errors are the issue.   I think it's more that undecided voters are likely to end up voting for Trump.

IMO,  people who are still undecided at this point are most likely Republicans who don't like Trump but in the end will end up convincing themselves that Trump is still better than a Democrat.

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Updated 538 breakdowns for all states (from Biden's perspective) . . .

99%: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
98%: ME1, OR
97%: CO, NM
94%: MI, MN, WI
90%: ME, NV
88%: NH
85%: PA
76%: NE2
66%: AZ
63%: NC
61%: FL
53%: ME2
50%: GA, IA
40%: OH
30%: TX
17%: AK
14%: MT
9%: MS
8%: MO, SC
6% SD
5%: IN
4% KS, NE1, UT
3%: LA, TN
2%: AL, ND
1% AR, ID, KY, NE, NE3, OK, WV, WY

That 94% line has some huge states. If Biden holds all the states 88% or greater, that gets him to 258 electoral votes (so he would need to get 12 more). That means if Biden won any one of the following he would win: PA, NC, FL, GA, OH, or TX that would be enough to win (if the election is run on the up and up). He would also win if he won AZ and any one of NE2, ME2, or IA.

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10 minutes ago, Marauder said:

I don't want to speak for Groovus but I don't think polling errors are the issue.   I think it's more that undecided voters are likely to end up voting for Trump.

IMO,  people who are still undecided at this point are most likely Republicans who don't like Trump but in the end will end up convincing themselves that Trump is still better than a Democrat.

One of the main differences this time around is Biden has been polling over 50% nationally since June (once in awhile he dipped to 49.9%) and is still right around 52%. Hillary was typically in the 46-48% range September on. She ended up projected to get 48.5% of the vote (which is exactly what she ended up with). Biden is still over 50% in PA, MI, WI, MN, and NH . . . meaning that Trump could pick up every other undecided voter in those states and Biden should still win them. At this point, the GOP needs to CONVERT Biden voters to Trump voters - OR - register A TON of new voters to be able to crack Biden's hold on more than 50% of the vote in those states. If Biden wins those 5 states, the race is over. At this point, the one state on that list that seems most likely to go Trump is PA.

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YouGov/The Economist (B):

NATIONAL
Biden 54%
Trump 43%

Monmouth (A+):

GEORGIA, REGISTERED VOTERS
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

GEORGIA, LOW TURNOUT
Biden 50%
Trump 48%

GEORGIA, HIGH TURNOUT
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

 

...And that's why Biden is going to Georgia.

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1 hour ago, Biff84 said:

He can but I don’t think anyone wants to focus on it as a must-win after recent heartbreaks there. I think everyone wants to focus on pathways that don’t include winning Florida. Winning Florida is likely the one way that we have a declared winner on Tuesday. 

I am always skeptical about undecideds this last in the game.  I mean do you really think there are people that dont know who to vote for but then see said candidate in their state and that makes their mind up?  What am I missing here?

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Marquette Law School (A/B):

WISCONSIN
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

NYT/Siena (A+):

MICHIGAN
Biden 49%
Trump 41%

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2 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

I am always skeptical about undecideds this last in the game.  I mean do you really think there are people that dont know who to vote for but then see said candidate in their state and that makes their mind up?  What am I missing here?

In an election where every vote may matter, these:

  • Provide free TV coverage to get YOUR most impactful message out there
  • Energize your base to "get out the vote," talk about you to others, brag about "I saw XYZ and he said he's gonna cure cancer!  That dude is AWESOME!"
  • Suggest to the rubes that since you visited them in their podunk town that you care about them
  • Probably some others that I can't think of at the moment

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4 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

In an election where every vote may matter, these:

  • Provide free TV coverage to get YOUR most impactful message out there
  • Energize your base to "get out the vote," talk about you to others, brag about "I saw XYZ and he said he's gonna cure cancer!  That dude is AWESOME!"
  • Suggest to the rubes that since you visited them in their podunk town that you care about them
  • Probably some others that I can't think of at the moment

Sure but my point is I doubt there are folks this late in the game that are undecided.  I think you are either going to vote or not and it doesnt depend on if Biden or whoever was in your state in the past week.

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3 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

In an election where every vote may matter, these:

  • Provide free TV coverage to get YOUR most impactful message out there
  • Energize your base to "get out the vote," talk about you to others, brag about "I saw XYZ and he said he's gonna cure cancer!  That dude is AWESOME!"
  • Suggest to the rubes that since you visited them in their podunk town that you care about them
  • Probably some others that I can't think of at the moment

That's why we headlines like this out of Texas as Harris rolls through parts of the state.

I don't see Trump's current campaign efforts being effective.  He flies to an airport, people have long commutes to/from to see him (with disasters like the post-event in Omaha), he gets out of his plane, speaks for 45 minutes, then hops back in the plane and departs.  Meh.  And the message he gives includes him bemoaning the fact that he's even out there in this colder weather.  Bottom line, he seems to be mailing it in at this point.  He won't work to appeal to a broader base, he won't change his stance on Covid, he has no plans, and his attacks on Biden ("he's sleepy and incoherent!" "the laptop!"') haven't worked.  Stick a fork in 'im.  It's over.  

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31 minutes ago, caustic said:

Marquette Law School (A/B):

WISCONSIN
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

much more info on the MU Law poll at @MULawPoll

I thought this was interesting:

Quote

MULawPoll

@MULawPoll

Among likely voters who have not yet voted, 35% say they support Biden, 56% support Trump, 3% support Jorgensen, 6% declined to say.

Among those who have already voted, 64% say they voted for Biden, 25% for Trump, 2% for Jorgensen, 9% did not say. #mulawpoll

41% of those polled say they have already voted (compared to 37.5% at the time the polling concluded, according to election officials). #mulawpoll

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, caustic said:

Marquette Law School (A/B):

WISCONSIN
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

 

The Chicago Tribune had a good article last Sunday about this Marquette poll and the University of Wisconsin poll reviewing changes they made since 2016 (such as adding in education level weighting) and their views on other differences between 2016 and 2020.  I'd encourage the read for any of you who have some free time.  There is a paywall but I think you get a handful of free articles per device per month.

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2 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Polling errors happen both ways.  Yes, we could have a polling error that repeats 2016 but don't forget that 2012 had a polling error the other way.  People just forget about it since before the polling error it had a slight Obama lead compared to where his victory ended up.  

There's a polling error aspect to it, but also as @Marauder mentioned "undecideds" who are really Republicans considering not voting for Trump but who ultimately will because he's the Republican candidate, and voter suppression. Places like Georgia and Florida, the voter suppression is happening right out in the open to keep people away from the  voting booths, other places are monkeying with how mail in ballots will be handled / counted. I think Biden will need more than a +3 edge going in to surmount all that stuff.

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5 hours ago, Steeler said:

I'm not going to argue with your response, but I'd like to understand why you think Trump is eroding our republic.

If you can't see it now, I'm afraid no one will be able to explain it to you.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

One of the main differences this time around is Biden has been polling over 50% nationally since June (once in awhile he dipped to 49.9%) and is still right around 52%. Hillary was typically in the 46-48% range September on. She ended up projected to get 48.5% of the vote (which is exactly what she ended up with). Biden is still over 50% in PA, MI, WI, MN, and NH . . . meaning that Trump could pick up every other undecided voter in those states and Biden should still win them. At this point, the GOP needs to CONVERT Biden voters to Trump voters - OR - register A TON of new voters to be able to crack Biden's hold on more than 50% of the vote in those states. If Biden wins those 5 states, the race is over. At this point, the one state on that list that seems most likely to go Trump is PA.

I agree.   I believe Biden will win all the states you mentioned (although PA could go either way).   I was referring to states like GA, FL,  IA and TX.   

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