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2020 Survivor Leagues (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bro1ncos
- Start date
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I have Ten picked now, but that would be a blow to their chances. Might end up swapping for Pit. Definitely not liking the TB option until they show a little more.Well, this didn't turn out so great. Took Tenn and now AJ Brown looks to be out
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Week 3 is scary. I'm hoping Indy looks better this week and the Jests look as bad as week 1 and that'll be the pick, but not many options...
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon said:
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Well, that was close. I don't think I want to pick against Minshew Magic anymore this season.
Eight games with a spread of better that 5 and an EV of 1 or higher, not many (aside from SEA and TB) have much future value either:
CLE vs WAS -7.5 (EV 1.09 / W% 73.7% / P% 6.5%) - Would be nice to burn CLE but I don't think I really trust either team here yet.
LAC VS CAR -6.5 (EV 1.06 / W% 72.8% / P% 8.5%) - Without CMC how will CAR generate offense for the next 4-6 weeks? LAC vs NYJ W6 and JAX W8 (but see above).
NE vs LV -6 (EV 1.05 / W% 70.1% / P% 3.1%) - I prefer picking against bad teams, and I generally don't trust Newton.
SEA vs DAL -5 (EV 1.02 / W% 67.4% / P% 1.2%) - I prefer picking against bad teams.
TB @ DEN -6 (EV 1.02 / W% 70.3% / P% 8.5%) - Away game but do those even matter as much with no fans? Denver 0-2 but two close ones.
PHI vs CIN -6.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 68.4% / P% 5.5%) - I'm not picking my Eagles until they finally show me something, 0-2 as favorites this season.
ARI vs DET -5.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 70.1% / P% 10.1%) - Murray seems like the kind of QB that can take over and win a close game. Play MIA W9.
IND vs NYJ -10.5 (EV 0.99 / W% 80.7% / P% 44.1%) - Easily the most popular pick, but knocks out the most with an upset so EV is down. Play CIN W6.
What are you guys thinking?
Eight games with a spread of better that 5 and an EV of 1 or higher, not many (aside from SEA and TB) have much future value either:
CLE vs WAS -7.5 (EV 1.09 / W% 73.7% / P% 6.5%) - Would be nice to burn CLE but I don't think I really trust either team here yet.
LAC VS CAR -6.5 (EV 1.06 / W% 72.8% / P% 8.5%) - Without CMC how will CAR generate offense for the next 4-6 weeks? LAC vs NYJ W6 and JAX W8 (but see above).
NE vs LV -6 (EV 1.05 / W% 70.1% / P% 3.1%) - I prefer picking against bad teams, and I generally don't trust Newton.
SEA vs DAL -5 (EV 1.02 / W% 67.4% / P% 1.2%) - I prefer picking against bad teams.
TB @ DEN -6 (EV 1.02 / W% 70.3% / P% 8.5%) - Away game but do those even matter as much with no fans? Denver 0-2 but two close ones.
PHI vs CIN -6.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 68.4% / P% 5.5%) - I'm not picking my Eagles until they finally show me something, 0-2 as favorites this season.
ARI vs DET -5.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 70.1% / P% 10.1%) - Murray seems like the kind of QB that can take over and win a close game. Play MIA W9.
IND vs NYJ -10.5 (EV 0.99 / W% 80.7% / P% 44.1%) - Easily the most popular pick, but knocks out the most with an upset so EV is down. Play CIN W6.
What are you guys thinking?
greedygoat
Footballguy
I agree, leaning towards the LA Chargers this week as it may take Carolina a few games to find their rhythm without CMC.
RealReactions
Footballguy
I was debating between NE and TB before MNF. Raiders looked pretty good and like you mentioned, Cam still makes me nervous but Bill always has a great gameplan. After MNF I'm sticking with TB. Yes it's on the road but Denver doesn't have their star WR or their starting QB. Also Godwin is back. Brady had I believe 3 drops for touchdowns. It should have been a blowout. Can easily see TB up early and letting the defense pass rush all game.
34-13 TB
Best of luck everyone
34-13 TB
Best of luck everyone
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
I'm leaning LAC and ARI for week 3. TB looks good too pending Lock's status, which would make it great if he's out.
contiuning my fade schtick cause it's working so far...
Teams to fade: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 2-3
Week 2: 0-5
Teams to watch: NYG, CIN, LVR
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 1-2
Week 2: 1-2
Raiders beat the Saints, albeit without MT. Raiders officially coming off the list. NYG lost Saqhon and CIN lost to the Browns. Both added to the list starting week 3.
So, going forward,
Teams to fade: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR, NYG, CIN
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 2-5
Week 2: 0-7
My picks:
Week 1: BAL(Cle), BUF(Nyj)
Week 2: TB(Car), SEA(Ne)
Week 3:
Looking at the teams to fade on the road, Chargers hosting CAR without CMC looks like the best of the bunch, but I'm not sold on the Chargers. Eagles hosting Cincy should be a gimme, but, well, Eagles. WAS@CLE, MIA@JAX are bad teams playing bad teams so hard pass, NYJ@IND looks like the best pick here.
Fade picks:
NYJ@IND
CAR@LAC
Other home team picks:
DET@ARI
CHI@ATL
Road team picks:
TB@DEN
contiuning my fade schtick cause it's working so far...
Teams to fade: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 2-3
Week 2: 0-5
Teams to watch: NYG, CIN, LVR
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 1-2
Week 2: 1-2
Raiders beat the Saints, albeit without MT. Raiders officially coming off the list. NYG lost Saqhon and CIN lost to the Browns. Both added to the list starting week 3.
So, going forward,
Teams to fade: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR, NYG, CIN
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 2-5
Week 2: 0-7
My picks:
Week 1: BAL(Cle), BUF(Nyj)
Week 2: TB(Car), SEA(Ne)
Week 3:
Looking at the teams to fade on the road, Chargers hosting CAR without CMC looks like the best of the bunch, but I'm not sold on the Chargers. Eagles hosting Cincy should be a gimme, but, well, Eagles. WAS@CLE, MIA@JAX are bad teams playing bad teams so hard pass, NYJ@IND looks like the best pick here.
Fade picks:
NYJ@IND
CAR@LAC
Other home team picks:
DET@ARI
CHI@ATL
Road team picks:
TB@DEN
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Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
It is, in my own system too lol, but I just can't buy into the Colts for some reason. maybe it's the years of disappointment in Rivers and, to a lesser extent, TY.
nirad3
Footballguy
Indy is my pick. I only see one other potential matchup (CIN) that I'd use them on, but by that time Joe Burrow and that offense could be a lot better. Rather use them now against this cupcake.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I have Indy selected now, but I am really tempted to switch to Arizona and hope for a miracle from the Jets. Also, Indy has two or three future games I'd consider taking, and as of now Arz has 1 or 2. Will be keeping an eye on injuries on Sunday morning before making a final decision.Lehigh98 said:
Lehigh98
Footballguy
I just feel like whenever you have that many people on one team you have to go contrarian and hope for the knockouts.
Even though there's a small chance of those bloodbaths happening, when they do you get a huge step closer to the money.
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Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
Wingnut
Footballguy
I may roll with whoever the Jets are playing for the foreseeable future where I can (except the Denver game next week and the Miami games) in a free DK pool. The Jets upcoming schedule after next week:
vs ARZ
@ LAC
vs BUF
@ KC
vs NE
@ MIA
Bye
vs MIA
vs LV
@ SEA
@ LAR
vs CLE
@ NE
vs ARZ
@ LAC
vs BUF
@ KC
vs NE
@ MIA
Bye
vs MIA
vs LV
@ SEA
@ LAR
vs CLE
@ NE
greedygoat
Footballguy
Going Indy even though I know more than 50% of the remaining teams will be doing the same. After sweating Tennessee last week, I want to go with the “safest” play and not try to get too cute in week three. I just don’t see any scenario where the Jets offense, defense or head coach can keep them in the game late.
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Lehigh98
Footballguy
Made it through last week with the Browns.
Went Baltimore this week for the high SGW% (85.4%) and to fade the heavy picking on the Rams (SGP% 50% and 33/47 in my pool).
Let's go Ravens and G-Men!
https://www.survivorgrid.com/
Went Baltimore this week for the high SGW% (85.4%) and to fade the heavy picking on the Rams (SGP% 50% and 33/47 in my pool).
Let's go Ravens and G-Men!
https://www.survivorgrid.com/
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greedygoat
Footballguy
Lehigh98
Footballguy
greedygoat
Footballguy
A Giants win there would’ve be gigantic!
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Daniel Jones could have easily run for the first down and more there when he threw that last pick.
Harris
Footballguy
Continuing the trend against the Giants (I was all in on the Rams last weekend)....for as bad as the Cowboys have been, this is likely the best week to pick them I have to imagine. Maybe at home in week 9 against The Football Team could be as good but I think Washington will get better as the season rolls on. The Cowboys are desperate this week to keep up in the division and while they gave up 307 yards rushing to Cleveland, this is a patchwork Giants backfield for the moment.
Thinking of putting all 3 of my remaining entries in one pool on the Boys for the W here.
Thinking of putting all 3 of my remaining entries in one pool on the Boys for the W here.
RealReactions
Footballguy
Division games always sketch me out. Especially in the worst division. Dallas has a ton of firepower but that defense just gave up 49 points to Cleveland.
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
Lehigh98
Footballguy
https://www.survivorgrid.com/
Highest EV's this week are BAL vs CIN (1.11) and KC vs LV (1.11) but I used both of them already.
Highest pick percentage is DAL vs NYG but only 28% so not big enough to try to avoid for a big knockout.
EV - Win % - Pick % - Team - Opp - Vegas Spread - Dodds Spread
1.03 - 77.3% - 4.1% - SF - MIA (-9) - (-4.7) - Low future value, only week 14 vs WAS. Status of Garoppolo and Mostert?
1.02 - 76.0% - 3.3% - NO - LAC (-7.5) - (-7.6) - Decent future value weeks 7 & 11
1.00 - 75.7% - 5.7% - NE - DEN (-8) - (-7.3) - Bridgewater vs Lock? Rypien? Too many question marks? Only future value vs Jets in week 9 & 17?
1.00 - 75.8% - 6.0% - LAR - @WAS (-7.5) - (-8.8) - Away game, QB change to Kyle Allen, wild card that could improve offense or bad QB? Some value weeks 7, 8 & 15.
0.98 - 73.9% - 5.0% - PIT - PHI (-7.5) - (-8) - Decent future value but not until weeks 10 & 13
0.97 - 73.3% - 4.4% - SEA - MIN (-7) - (-8.5) - Decent future value but not until weeks 13 & 14
0.95 - 78.8% - 28.2% - DAL - NYG (-9.5) - (-11.2) - DAL can't seem to stop anyone, NYG held LAR offense in check a bit last week. Only future value vs WAS week 12.
0.95 - 74.2% - 13.2% - ARI - @NYJ (-7.5) - (-8.3) - Flacco starting this week, wild card that could improve offense or is he done? Only future value week 9 vs NYJ.
0.95 - 70.9% - 2.4% - HOU - JAX (-6.5) - (-6.8) - No future value, still afraid of Minshew magic though.
Highest EV's this week are BAL vs CIN (1.11) and KC vs LV (1.11) but I used both of them already.
Highest pick percentage is DAL vs NYG but only 28% so not big enough to try to avoid for a big knockout.
EV - Win % - Pick % - Team - Opp - Vegas Spread - Dodds Spread
1.03 - 77.3% - 4.1% - SF - MIA (-9) - (-4.7) - Low future value, only week 14 vs WAS. Status of Garoppolo and Mostert?
1.02 - 76.0% - 3.3% - NO - LAC (-7.5) - (-7.6) - Decent future value weeks 7 & 11
1.00 - 75.7% - 5.7% - NE - DEN (-8) - (-7.3) - Bridgewater vs Lock? Rypien? Too many question marks? Only future value vs Jets in week 9 & 17?
1.00 - 75.8% - 6.0% - LAR - @WAS (-7.5) - (-8.8) - Away game, QB change to Kyle Allen, wild card that could improve offense or bad QB? Some value weeks 7, 8 & 15.
0.98 - 73.9% - 5.0% - PIT - PHI (-7.5) - (-8) - Decent future value but not until weeks 10 & 13
0.97 - 73.3% - 4.4% - SEA - MIN (-7) - (-8.5) - Decent future value but not until weeks 13 & 14
0.95 - 78.8% - 28.2% - DAL - NYG (-9.5) - (-11.2) - DAL can't seem to stop anyone, NYG held LAR offense in check a bit last week. Only future value vs WAS week 12.
0.95 - 74.2% - 13.2% - ARI - @NYJ (-7.5) - (-8.3) - Flacco starting this week, wild card that could improve offense or is he done? Only future value week 9 vs NYJ.
0.95 - 70.9% - 2.4% - HOU - JAX (-6.5) - (-6.8) - No future value, still afraid of Minshew magic though.
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greedygoat
Footballguy
I’m going Dallas vs the Giants. Dallas can be run on, as Cleveland showed us last week, but Chubb and Hunt is a different story than Freeman and Gallman. Can’t see the Giants keeping pace offensively with the Cowboys.
Already used Buffalo, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Baltimore.
Already used Buffalo, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Baltimore.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
I'm almost exactly the same. Only difference is I took ARI (against WAS) in Week 2.
The funny part about this season is that I have changed my pick every week EXCEPT for Week 2. I plotted a course before the season for all 17 weeks. It took me all of about 48 hours to deviate from the script... LOL. Changed Week 1 from BUF (NYJ) to KC. Changed Week 3 from PHI(CIN) to IND (thank god.... can't imagine the gut-wrench of having my survivor season end with that tie debacle by Philly). Then changed this past week from BAL to LAR. The Rams felt like the hotter team, BAL was coming off of that ugly offensive performance against KC, and BAL has some nice options coming up, including this week.
Harris
Footballguy
Same. There won't be too many more chances to use Dallas confidently later in the season and this saves some stronger teams (Ravens, 49ers, KC) for down the road. Worth the risk against a Giants offense that is nowhere near as good as Cleveland's and a defense that is worse as well.
nirad3
Footballguy
Agree. I want to save the stronger teams for later in the season when I need "no-doubters".
Knock on wood but no way Dallas lets the Giants beat them this week.
Harris
Footballguy
greedygoat
Footballguy
Glad I used Dallas and can cross them off my list. Not sure where you’d be able to use them comfortably the rest of the season.This game had me like, then
, then
+
and finally
+
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Also happy to be able to cross Dallas off my list but that game was brutal to watch. Sorry I doubted you Red Rifle.
Really glad I switched off SF which was the pick I had preplanned for this week.
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Looks like them changing up the schedule puts a little wrinkle in my plan. Was going to go LAC over NYJ this week, but they moved the MIA/NYJ game to this week. As it turns out, they basically swapped the LAC/NYJ game and weeks with MIA/NYJ so I'm still going to pick the same games but in a different order.
So... used BUF, SF, IND, GB, ARI
Going MIA this week.
So... used BUF, SF, IND, GB, ARI
Going MIA this week.
Harris
Footballguy
Didn't really consider MIA prior to this past weekend but given how dominant they were over SF this could be a good week to use them when they have very little future value the rest of the season. Maybe I'll split my 3 entries betwee NE and MIA. TEN could also work here against HOU. The past 3 weeks I've been all-in on one team but it may be time to hedge a bit.
So far I've been:
BAL, GB, IND/CLE (Must Pick Two), LAR, DAL
BUF, SF, IND/CLE (Must Pick Two), LAR, DAL
BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (Must Pick Two), LAR, DAL
Harris
Footballguy
Splitting 3 entries between MIA (-8.5), TEN (TBD), and NE (-9) to keep options open for later in the season. All at home and all very winnable games.
