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2020 Survivor Leagues

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Packers? Feel like they could be put in a glass jar in that division but lions at home is about as much of a lock as it gets

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On 9/18/2020 at 8:58 AM, greedygoat said:

Well, this didn't turn out so great.  Took Tenn and now AJ Brown looks to be out :wall:

I have Ten picked now, but that would be a blow to their chances. Might end up swapping for Pit. Definitely not liking the TB option until they show a little more.

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Week 3 is scary. I'm hoping Indy looks better this week and the Jests look as bad as week 1 and that'll be the pick, but not many options...

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Well, that was close.  I don't think I want to pick against Minshew Magic anymore this season.

Eight games with a spread of better that 5 and an EV of 1 or higher, not many (aside from SEA and TB) have much future value either:

CLE vs WAS -7.5 (EV 1.09 / W% 73.7% / P% 6.5%) - Would be nice to burn CLE but I don't think I really trust either team here yet.

LAC VS CAR -6.5 (EV 1.06 / W% 72.8% / P% 8.5%) - Without CMC how will CAR generate offense for the next 4-6 weeks? LAC vs NYJ W6 and JAX W8 (but see above).

NE vs LV -6 (EV 1.05 / W% 70.1% / P% 3.1%) - I prefer picking against bad teams, and I generally don't trust Newton.

SEA vs DAL -5 (EV 1.02 / W% 67.4% / P% 1.2%) - I prefer picking against bad teams.

TB @ DEN -6 (EV 1.02 / W% 70.3% / P% 8.5%) - Away game but do those even matter as much with no fans?  Denver 0-2 but two close ones.

PHI vs CIN -6.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 68.4% / P% 5.5%) - I'm not picking my Eagles until they finally show me something, 0-2 as favorites this season.

ARI vs DET -5.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 70.1% / P% 10.1%) - Murray seems like the kind of QB that can take over and win a close game. Play MIA W9.

IND vs NYJ -10.5 (EV 0.99 / W% 80.7% / P% 44.1%) - Easily the most popular pick, but knocks out the most with an upset so EV is down.  Play CIN W6.

What are you guys thinking?

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7 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

Well, that was close.  I don't think I want to pick against Minshew Magic anymore this season.

Eight games with a spread of better that 5 and an EV of 1 or higher, not many (aside from SEA and TB) have much future value either:

CLE vs WAS -7.5 (EV 1.09 / W% 73.7% / P% 6.5%) - Would be nice to burn CLE but I don't think I really trust either team here yet.

LAC VS CAR -6.5 (EV 1.06 / W% 72.8% / P% 8.5%) - Without CMC how will CAR generate offense for the next 4-6 weeks? LAC vs NYJ W6 and JAX W8 (but see above).

NE vs LV -6 (EV 1.05 / W% 70.1% / P% 3.1%) - I prefer picking against bad teams, and I generally don't trust Newton.

SEA vs DAL -5 (EV 1.02 / W% 67.4% / P% 1.2%) - I prefer picking against bad teams.

TB @ DEN -6 (EV 1.02 / W% 70.3% / P% 8.5%) - Away game but do those even matter as much with no fans?  Denver 0-2 but two close ones.

PHI vs CIN -6.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 68.4% / P% 5.5%) - I'm not picking my Eagles until they finally show me something, 0-2 as favorites this season.

ARI vs DET -5.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 70.1% / P% 10.1%) - Murray seems like the kind of QB that can take over and win a close game. Play MIA W9.

IND vs NYJ -10.5 (EV 0.99 / W% 80.7% / P% 44.1%) - Easily the most popular pick, but knocks out the most with an upset so EV is down.  Play CIN W6.

What are you guys thinking?

I agree, leaning towards the LA Chargers this week as it may take Carolina a few games to find their rhythm without CMC.

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I was debating between NE and TB before MNF. Raiders looked pretty good and like you mentioned, Cam still makes me nervous but Bill always has a great gameplan. After MNF I'm sticking with TB. Yes it's on the road but Denver doesn't have their star WR or their starting QB. Also Godwin is back. Brady had I believe 3 drops for touchdowns. It should have been a blowout. Can easily see TB up early and letting the defense pass rush all game.

34-13 TB

Best of luck everyone

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BUF, SFO the first two weeks

Going with IND (sticking with the vs. NYJ as much as I can).

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I'm leaning LAC and ARI for week 3. TB looks good too pending Lock's status, which would make it great if he's out.

contiuning my fade schtick cause it's working so far...

Teams to fade: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 2-3
Week 2: 0-5

Teams to watch: NYG, CIN, LVR
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 1-2
Week 2: 1-2

Raiders beat the Saints, albeit without MT. Raiders officially coming off the list. NYG lost Saqhon and CIN lost to the Browns. Both added to the list starting week 3.

So, going forward,
Teams to fade: WAS, JAX, MIA, NYJ, CAR, NYG, CIN
Records for these teams:
Week 1: 2-5
Week 2: 0-7

My picks:
Week 1: BAL(Cle), BUF(Nyj)
Week 2: TB(Car), SEA(Ne)

Week 3:
Looking at the teams to fade on the road, Chargers hosting CAR without CMC looks like the best of the bunch, but I'm not sold on the Chargers. Eagles hosting Cincy should be a gimme, but, well, Eagles. WAS@CLE, MIA@JAX are bad teams playing bad teams so hard pass, NYJ@IND looks like the best pick here.

Fade picks:
NYJ@IND
CAR@LAC

Other home team picks:
DET@ARI
CHI@ATL

Road team picks:
TB@DEN

Edited by Pigskin Fanatic
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Indy seems to be the resounding favorite this week right? Seems like if you are going to use them might as well be the time for me as our league is down to 5. 

Edited by starks

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37 minutes ago, starks said:

Indy seems to be the resounding favorite this week right? Seems like if you are going to use them might as well be the time for me as our league is down to 5. 

It is, in my own system too lol, but I just can't buy into the Colts for some reason. maybe it's the years of disappointment in Rivers and, to a lesser extent, TY.

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22 hours ago, starks said:

Indy seems to be the resounding favorite this week right? Seems like if you are going to use them might as well be the time for me as our league is down to 5. 

Indy is my pick.  I only see one other potential matchup (CIN) that I'd use them on, but by that time Joe Burrow and that offense could be a lot better.  Rather use them now against this cupcake.

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Picks are in and posted for my pool:

Indianapolis - 34 (57%)

Arizona - 5

L.A. Chargers - 5

Cleveland - 4

Tampa Bay - 4

New England - 3

Philadelphia - 2

Jacksonville - 1

Pittsburgh - 1

Tennessee - 1

Let's go Jets!

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1 hour ago, Lehigh98 said:

Picks are in and posted for my pool:

Indianapolis - 34 (57%)

Arizona - 5

L.A. Chargers - 5

Cleveland - 4

Tampa Bay - 4

New England - 3

Philadelphia - 2

Jacksonville - 1

Pittsburgh - 1

Tennessee - 1

Let's go Jets!

I have Indy selected now, but I am really tempted to switch to Arizona and hope for a miracle from the Jets. Also, Indy has two or three future games I'd consider taking, and as of now Arz has 1 or 2. Will be keeping an eye on injuries on Sunday morning before making a final decision.

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25 minutes ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

I have Indy selected now, but I am really tempted to switch to Arizona and hope for a miracle from the Jets. Also, Indy has two or three future games I'd consider taking, and as of now Arz has 1 or 2. Will be keeping an eye on injuries on Sunday morning before making a final decision.

I just feel like whenever you have that many people on one team you have to go contrarian and hope for the knockouts. 

Even though there's a small chance of those bloodbaths happening, when they do you get a huge step closer to the money. 

Edited by Lehigh98
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39 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

I just feel like whenever you have that many people on one team you have to go contrarian and hope for the knockouts. 

Even though there's a small chance of those bloodbaths happening, when they do you get a huge step closer to the money. 

bloodbath 2018 iirc was Indy week 1. It's happening!

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I may roll with whoever the Jets are playing for the foreseeable future where I can (except the Denver game next week and the Miami games) in a free DK pool. The Jets upcoming schedule after next week:

vs ARZ

@ LAC

vs BUF

@ KC

vs NE

@ MIA

Bye

vs MIA

vs LV

@ SEA

@ LAR

vs CLE

@ NE

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On 9/23/2020 at 9:49 AM, greedygoat said:

I agree, leaning towards the LA Chargers this week as it may take Carolina a few games to find their rhythm without CMC.

Going Indy even though I know more than 50% of the remaining teams will be doing the same.  After sweating Tennessee last week, I want to go with the “safest” play and not try to get too cute in week three. I just don’t see any scenario where the Jets offense, defense or head coach can keep them in the game late. 

Edited by greedygoat
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Rams for me considering future value.  They're back home after getting embarrassed for a half in Buffalo and then blowing a miracle comeback.  This is a must win to keep pace in the division/conference.

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Posted (edited)

Made it through last week with the Browns.

Went Baltimore this week for the high SGW% (85.4%) and to fade the heavy picking on the Rams (SGP% 50% and 33/47 in my pool).

Let's go Ravens and G-Men!

https://www.survivorgrid.com/

Edited by Lehigh98

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2 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

Went Baltimore this week for the high SGW% (85.4%) and to fade the heavy picking on the Rams (SGP% 50% and 33/47 in my pool).

Let's go Ravens and G-Men!

I'm doing the same.

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3 pools. Going Rams, Bucs, and 49ers. 

 

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On 10/1/2020 at 3:43 PM, greedygoat said:

I'm doing the same.

Almost, Giants kept it interesting for a while.

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1 hour ago, greedygoat said:

A Giants win there would’ve be gigantic!

Daniel Jones could have easily run for the first down and more there when he threw that last pick.

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Continuing the trend against the Giants (I was all in on the Rams last weekend)....for as bad as the Cowboys have been, this is likely the best week to pick them I have to imagine. Maybe at home in week 9 against The Football Team could be as good but I think Washington will get better as the season rolls on. The Cowboys are desperate this week to keep up in the division and while they gave up 307 yards rushing to Cleveland, this is a patchwork Giants backfield for the moment.

Thinking of putting all 3 of my remaining entries in one pool on the Boys for the W here.

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1 minute ago, Harris said:

Continuing the trend against the Giants (I was all in on the Rams last weekend)....for as bad as the Cowboys have been, this is likely the best week to pick them I have to imagine. Maybe at home in week 9 against The Football Team could be as good but I think Washington will get better as the season rolls on. The Cowboys are desperate this week to keep up in the division and while they gave up 307 yards rushing to Cleveland, this is a patchwork Giants backfield for the moment.

Thinking of putting all 3 of my remaining entries in one pool on the Boys for the W here.

Division games always sketch me out. Especially in the worst division. Dallas has a ton of firepower but that defense just gave up 49 points to Cleveland.

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Too scared of Dallas.  Will go with NE this week.  Sounds like Cam may be coming back 

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The 49ers got me booted from my free draft kings pool. Still alive in 2 money pools.

Arizona @ Jets,  Dallas v Giants, Rams @ Washington are the 3 Im looking at right now.

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8 hours ago, Wingnut said:

The 49ers got me booted from my free draft kings pool. Still alive in 2 money pools.

Arizona @ Jets,  Dallas v Giants, Rams @ Washington are the 3 Im looking at right now.

Think I am rolling with Arizona this week against the Jets with Flacco starting. 

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Posted (edited)

https://www.survivorgrid.com/

Highest EV's this week are BAL vs CIN (1.11) and KC vs LV (1.11) but I used both of them already.

Highest pick percentage is DAL vs NYG but only 28% so not big enough to try to avoid for a big knockout.

EV - Win % - Pick % - Team - Opp - Vegas Spread - Dodds Spread

1.03 - 77.3% - 4.1% - SF - MIA (-9) - (-4.7) - Low future value,  only week 14 vs WAS.  Status of Garoppolo and Mostert?

1.02 - 76.0% - 3.3% - NO - LAC (-7.5) - (-7.6) - Decent future value weeks 7 & 11

1.00 - 75.7% - 5.7% - NE - DEN (-8) - (-7.3) - Bridgewater vs Lock? Rypien?  Too many question marks?  Only future value vs Jets in week 9 & 17?

1.00 - 75.8% - 6.0% - LAR - @WAS (-7.5) - (-8.8) - Away game, QB change to Kyle Allen, wild card that could improve offense or bad QB?  Some value weeks 7, 8 & 15.

0.98 - 73.9% - 5.0% - PIT - PHI (-7.5) - (-8) -  Decent future value but not until weeks 10 & 13

0.97 - 73.3% - 4.4% - SEA - MIN (-7) - (-8.5) - Decent future value but not until weeks 13 & 14

0.95 - 78.8% - 28.2% - DAL - NYG (-9.5) - (-11.2) - DAL can't seem to stop anyone, NYG held LAR offense in check a bit last week.  Only future value vs WAS week 12.

0.95 - 74.2% - 13.2% - ARI - @NYJ (-7.5) - (-8.3) - Flacco starting this week, wild card that could improve offense or is he done?  Only future value week 9 vs NYJ.

0.95 - 70.9% - 2.4% - HOU - JAX (-6.5) - (-6.8) - No future value, still afraid of Minshew magic though. 

Edited by Lehigh98

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I’m going Dallas vs the Giants. Dallas can be run on, as Cleveland showed us last week, but Chubb and Hunt is a different story than Freeman and Gallman. Can’t see the Giants keeping pace offensively with the Cowboys. 
 

Already used Buffalo, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Baltimore. 

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27 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Going Baltimore this week.

Started KC, TB, Ind, LAR.

I'm almost exactly the same.  Only difference is I took ARI (against WAS) in Week 2.  

The funny part about this season is that I have changed my pick every week EXCEPT for Week 2.  I plotted a course before the season for all 17 weeks.  It took me all of about 48 hours to deviate from the script... LOL.  Changed Week 1 from BUF (NYJ) to KC.  Changed Week 3 from PHI(CIN) to IND (thank god.... can't imagine the gut-wrench of having my survivor season end with that tie debacle by Philly).  Then changed this past week from BAL to LAR.  The Rams felt like the hotter team, BAL was coming off of that ugly offensive performance against KC, and BAL has some nice options coming up, including this week.  

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6 minutes ago, greedygoat said:

I’m going Dallas vs the Giants. Dallas can be run on, as Cleveland showed us last week, but Chubb and Hunt is a different story than Freeman and Gallman. Can’t see the Giants keeping pace offensively with the Cowboys. 
 

Already used Buffalo, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Baltimore. 

Same. There won't be too many more chances to use Dallas confidently later in the season and this saves some stronger teams (Ravens, 49ers, KC) for down the road. Worth the risk against a Giants offense that is nowhere near as good as Cleveland's and a defense that is worse as well.

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50 minutes ago, Harris said:

Same. There won't be too many more chances to use Dallas confidently later in the season and this saves some stronger teams (Ravens, 49ers, KC) for down the road. Worth the risk against a Giants offense that is nowhere near as good as Cleveland's and a defense that is worse as well.

Agree.  I want to save the stronger teams for later in the season when I need "no-doubters".  

Knock on wood but no way Dallas lets the Giants beat them this week.  

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2 hours ago, nirad3 said:

Agree.  I want to save the stronger teams for later in the season when I need "no-doubters".  

Knock on wood but no way Dallas lets the Giants beat them this week.  

I think that saving stronger teams for later in the season, is a good way to not make it to later in the season.

Even against the Giants, Dallas is a tough sell. They have no OL, no defense, and are a miracle from being 0-4. 

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On 10/8/2020 at 9:42 PM, travdogg said:

I think that saving stronger teams for later in the season, is a good way to not make it to later in the season.

Even against the Giants, Dallas is a tough sell. They have no OL, no defense, and are a miracle from being 0-4. 

This game had me like :unsure: +  :toilet:,  then :towelwave:, then :cry: + :sadbanana: and finally :clap:  + :tebow:  

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50 minutes ago, Harris said:

This game had me like :unsure: +  :toilet:,  then :towelwave:, then :cry: + :sadbanana: and finally :clap:  + :tebow:  

Glad I used Dallas and can cross them off my list. Not sure where you’d be able to use them comfortably the rest of the season. 

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1 hour ago, greedygoat said:

Glad I used Dallas and can cross them off my list. Not sure where you’d be able to use them comfortably the rest of the season. 

Also happy to be able to cross Dallas off my list but that game was brutal to watch.  Sorry I doubted you Red Rifle.

Really glad I switched off SF which was the pick I had preplanned for this week.

Edited by Lehigh98

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Already thinking ahead to next week......all-in on NE over DEN? This has to be the pick I feel.

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Looks like them changing up the schedule puts a little wrinkle in my plan.  Was going to go LAC over NYJ this week, but they moved the MIA/NYJ game to this week.  As it turns out, they basically swapped the LAC/NYJ game and weeks with MIA/NYJ so I'm still going to pick the same games but in a different order.

So... used BUF, SF, IND, GB, ARI

Going MIA this week.

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9 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Looks like them changing up the schedule puts a little wrinkle in my plan.  Was going to go LAC over NYJ this week, but they moved the MIA/NYJ game to this week.  As it turns out, they basically swapped the LAC/NYJ game and weeks with MIA/NYJ so I'm still going to pick the same games but in a different order.

So... used BUF, SF, IND, GB, ARI

Going MIA this week.

Didn't really consider MIA prior to this past weekend but given how dominant they were over SF this could be a good week to use them when they have very little future value the rest of the season. Maybe I'll split my 3 entries betwee NE and MIA. TEN could also work here against HOU. The past 3 weeks I've been all-in on one team but it may be time to hedge a bit. 

So far I've been:

BAL, GB, IND/CLE (Must Pick Two), LAR, DAL
BUF, SF, IND/CLE (Must Pick Two), LAR, DAL
BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (Must Pick Two), LAR, DAL

 

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32 minutes ago, starks said:

Is this the week of the dolphin?

Splitting 3 entries between MIA (-8.5), TEN (TBD), and NE (-9) to keep options open for later in the season. All at home and all very winnable games.

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