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Who Wins The Election? 1 Week Out (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Storming through all established political norms and using power politics to instill judges to enforce opinions that a minority of the population has on the majority of the population seems to have some minor ethical issues.
Willfully savaging political institutions to get your way is corrupt all day long in my book.
We're gonna learn a lot in the next couple of weeks one way or the other.
Willfully savaging political institutions to get your way is corrupt all day long in my book.
We're gonna learn a lot in the next couple of weeks one way or the other.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
There were millions more votes cast for the Democratic Party than the Republican Party in 2018.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
They did. Right after Trump won in 16, Republicans were salivating at 18; thinking it was going to be a huge night for the RNC
2022 looks equally bad for the RNC.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The Supreme Court isn't corrupt. The confirmation process has just become contentious political theatre. Instead of deciding on the worthiness and capability of the nominee to interpret the Constitution, it's become this insane partisan battle for a Justice to decide cases based on that party's political platform ideology. Amy Coney Barrett should have gotten 90+ confirmation votes. She is highly capable and worthy of being a SC Justice.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Yes, and? House races are more localized so it doesn't paint a statewide picture. The Senate races show what a state is thinking because they encompass the whole state and not just districts. Also, in mid-term elections the party that loses the general usually does well because there isn't the same motivation by the winning party. Example in 2010 the Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats. Then in the next mid-term in 2014 they lost 13 House seats and 9 Senate seats. In Trumps first mid-term they lost 40 House seats and GAINED 2 Senate seats. I don't think the mid-term elections paint the picture you think it does.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
This is a lot more boring that worrying about a coup, but it's worth noting that the court isn't really deciding which ballots count and which ones don't. It's deciding whether to follow election rules as written or whether (and to what degree) courts can amend the rules as they deem appropriate. There are good, reasonable arguments on both ends of that spectrum.
Edit: More boring, not less. Coups are very exciting. Who-gets-to-decide-when-to-tweak-the-rules-by-a-small-amount is less so.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Regarding the bolded, obviously the Senate elections are a little different in that only 1/3 of the Senate is elected at a time, whereas the entire House is up for election every time. So, depending on which states have open Senate seats, it's entirely possible for one party to pick up seats in the Senate while the other party picks up seats in the House. I think it's more accurate to say that the House is a better indicator for how the country feels about a given political party given that the entire House gets voted on each election.
mrip541
Footballguy
I absolutely disagree. If the court effectively decides the election the conservative justices will side with Trump and the liberal justices will side with Biden. Same when it comes to overturning Roe v Wade.
edit - It's already happening with the mail-in ballot decision.
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Godsbrother
Footballguy
I am fine with this happening before the election. My concern is what is likely to happen after the votes are counted and one side is attempting to invalidate them.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Court unpacking. But yes.
It's legal so its perfectly legit right?
The rules seem to be if we can do it we will do it. Right?
Or do we have a separate set of rules?
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I'm in the 50-59% camp, but it's purely unscientific. I was one of the people who thought Trump had a much-better-than-expected chance in 2016. I don't think he has the same momentum as he did in 2016, and Biden does not have the negative momentum that Clinton had riding into election day. I suspect that Trump loses the popular vote by an even larger margin than last time, but all it takes is some decent turnout in a few states for him to win again. He may not have the largest base, but it's a strong base.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
You're being cute. The horse is out of the barn.
It's crazy how instantly the standard can change.
What's next, conservatives are gonna care about the deficit the minute Biden gets elected? They'd never has the chutzpah to do that after blowing up the deficit even pre covid.
It's crazy how instantly the standard can change.
What's next, conservatives are gonna care about the deficit the minute Biden gets elected? They'd never has the chutzpah to do that after blowing up the deficit even pre covid.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The Court wrongly decided Roe. They legislated in that case. Overturning Roe would allow States to legislate abortion how they see fit.
mrip541
Footballguy
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Do you? If not are you completely comfortable with the way things lie right now with the Supreme Court?
I would not see corrupted, but extremely polarized. Given that campaign rallies are regularly being held at the White House, she should have been sworn in somewhere else.
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No, I absolutely do not think the Supreme Court is corrupted.
That's a serious accusation.
Would I prefer all the Justices think exactly like me? I guess.
That's not in the same universe as accusing the Justices of being corrupted.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Who's to say he didn't win it if the President insists it is so? Who has stood up against him in the past? Who has the power?
Lehigh98
Footballguy
You have alot more faith in republicans doing the right thing than I do. Not sure why you think that way when all they've done is protect the way their minority can hold power. You don't think they're capable of election shenanigans? His entire life Trump sues if he doesn't get his way. His staff has already been filing lawsuits across the country suppressing voter turnout in unfavorable areas. Hell, he's got White House council defending him in a rape case.
And who has stood up against him? Democrats can try but what does it matter if they don't hold a majority to oppose, Trump just accuses them of meddling to justify his means. Republicans stay quiet and let him do it so they can try and hold onto power. I think you're looking at something similar to 2000 but on a larger scale where Trump sues over results in several locations until he gets his way or appeals all the way up to his Supreme Court.
I think the only way Trump gets knocked out of office is a huge margin of victory for Biden or if this strategy to bring into question the election results is more for him to save face in a loss he actually (consciously/subconsciously) desires so he doesn't have to do the job for another four years.
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Thanks. I do have more faith in the other Republicans. And of course there are a ton, likely a majority of Democrats in the House and Senate. Plus the people.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Why? What have they done in the last 4 years to deserve it? (I'm specifically speaking of the senate and congress)
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It's a different game for them if Trump loses. They, like anyone, are concerned first with their own job. Supporting a president everyone on both sides agrees is fairly elected is a lot different than joining a coup.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
It's not a coup to their constituents if Trump says it isn't. The people that voted for them in the past could as easily pull their support because they didn't support the president as he fought against a corrupt election.
I don't think there's much chance of this happening.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
It's the ultimate power play move for him. He steps asidef for, in his words, the good of the country....yet he'll still be there watching Joe; making sure he isn't screwing up....and if he has to...he'll come back in 2024.
His hardcore supporters will lap that up like an old man laps up nickle soup night at the local diner. And that's the real tragedy of a Trump Presidency....... Rank and file Conservatives and Republicans....they'll move on. Not the rank and file Trump Man. He'll be in that families political back pocket until Don Jr. is too old to run.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I'm a Falcons fan and voted for Biden.
He has a 0% chance of winning.
He has a 0% chance of winning.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
I stepped up to 95-100%. Biden hasn't been losing ground in the polls, while Trump continues to shoot himself in the foot with his Covid denials, his staff publicly saying they can't control the virus at all, the 60 Minutes walkout, etc. The early, heavy voting shows the passion people have, I believe, to fire Trump.
I expect Biden will take Penn and/or Florida. Even without them, he could take NC and Arizona and still win. But I expect a big win for Biden.
Is there a laughing / crying emoji?
Should it be a falcons logo? God bless you guys.
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dgreen
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
One can hope it plays out this way if it comes to pass. As my wife reminds me, lots of other countries' judiciaries have failed when pressed by autocrats preserving their power. Look to the rest of the world for how elections can fail.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Why is Trump winning FL and PA game over? Biden still has a very plausible path to victory even without those two - and one that right now based on polling is predicted to happen.
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Big win for Biden. Won't be close (thank God). Nobody's mentioning this but...
In 2016 I believe most (if not all) of Trumpers voted. They still didn't win the popular vote. We're shattering records with voter turnout and I don't believe the uptick is Trumpers coming out of the woodwork. I believe it's Democrats who have seen enough of Trump and are scared of of the damage another 4 years of this would bring. Go Blue!
In 2016 I believe most (if not all) of Trumpers voted. They still didn't win the popular vote. We're shattering records with voter turnout and I don't believe the uptick is Trumpers coming out of the woodwork. I believe it's Democrats who have seen enough of Trump and are scared of of the damage another 4 years of this would bring. Go Blue!
AAABatteries
Footballguy
He doesn't even need NC - just Arizona plus WI, MN and MI will do it. I think that is why I have Biden so high in my poll vote - his multiple paths to victory right now all look like possibilities. Trump pulling an inside straight again seems unlikely to me.
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Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
Sticking with 95-100. This election just isn't as has never been as close as the last one, and the only last minute "surprise" is COVID cases and deaths spiking heading into Election Day while Trump continues to pretend it's not happening.
There's no complicated inside baseball to this. Trump is an historically unpopular President, in the midst of flailing through a crisis.
There's no complicated inside baseball to this. Trump is an historically unpopular President, in the midst of flailing through a crisis.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
I think it will be much closer than I first anticipated. I think Biden will rack up huge but meaningless votes in NY and California as he has already won those states but will lose states like Pennsylvania and Florida. Who knows?
TLEF316
Footballguy
Gun to my head....I'd say its like 65-70% Biden. But I certainly wouldn't bet anything on it.
We can talk about national polls and approval ratings and voter turnout until the cows come home. At the end of the day, most of that sadly doesn't matter. The reality is that unless those people live in PA, OH, FL, NC, MI, WI or AZ, (forgive me if I'm missing any other significant swing states) their opinions REALLY dont matter.
I still believe there are large pockets of people in those states that are going to vote for Trump but aren't really talking about it (and aren't being accounted for in these national polls), just like 2016. I'm sure the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016 and have made attempts to more accurately account for these people, but I refuse to believe they've got in tuned in enough to accurately predict the election in those states.
No doubt that Biden (despite his flaws) is a more palatable candidate than Hillary. But unless that results in additional votes in the right places (the 2016 Red states that the Dems need to flip back) it doesn't matter.
And in terms of actually KNOWING who the President is when we wake up on November 4th.....less than 10% chance IMO. And even if that gets resolved relatively quickly (say by 12/1) I dont think the losing side (in terms of the actual voters) are going to take it well AT ALL. I have a bad feeling that this horrible year is going to have a fittingly horrible ending in terms of additional social unrest and division.
We can talk about national polls and approval ratings and voter turnout until the cows come home. At the end of the day, most of that sadly doesn't matter. The reality is that unless those people live in PA, OH, FL, NC, MI, WI or AZ, (forgive me if I'm missing any other significant swing states) their opinions REALLY dont matter.
I still believe there are large pockets of people in those states that are going to vote for Trump but aren't really talking about it (and aren't being accounted for in these national polls), just like 2016. I'm sure the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016 and have made attempts to more accurately account for these people, but I refuse to believe they've got in tuned in enough to accurately predict the election in those states.
No doubt that Biden (despite his flaws) is a more palatable candidate than Hillary. But unless that results in additional votes in the right places (the 2016 Red states that the Dems need to flip back) it doesn't matter.
And in terms of actually KNOWING who the President is when we wake up on November 4th.....less than 10% chance IMO. And even if that gets resolved relatively quickly (say by 12/1) I dont think the losing side (in terms of the actual voters) are going to take it well AT ALL. I have a bad feeling that this horrible year is going to have a fittingly horrible ending in terms of additional social unrest and division.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
I voted 50-59. I think it's pretty close to a tossup at this point, but it's not because of Hunter Biden or Joe's comments on oil or due to any other verbal gaffe by Biden.
I think it's a tossup for 4 reasons:
1. undecided voters and wavering Republicans tend to "come home" to the incumbent.
2. the installation of Amy Coney Barrett will energize the base and reinforce the most important campaign promise that Trump managed to keep.
3. ground game. The rallies are bad for the country, but they are good for Trump's chances.
4. vote by mail. I don't think the polls are properly accounting for the higher number of Democrat voters whose votes will be rejected.
Anyway, I think Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, and gets 1-2 out of PA/MI/WI/MN, and has a 50/50 shot at Arizona.
I think it's a tossup for 4 reasons:
1. undecided voters and wavering Republicans tend to "come home" to the incumbent.
2. the installation of Amy Coney Barrett will energize the base and reinforce the most important campaign promise that Trump managed to keep.
3. ground game. The rallies are bad for the country, but they are good for Trump's chances.
4. vote by mail. I don't think the polls are properly accounting for the higher number of Democrat voters whose votes will be rejected.
Anyway, I think Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, and gets 1-2 out of PA/MI/WI/MN, and has a 50/50 shot at Arizona.
[scooter]
Footballguy
If Trump gets FL, then it's a sign that he's probably also getting GA and maybe even NC -- which closes one of Biden's paths.
If Trump gets PA, then it's a sign that he's probably also getting at least one out of MI/WI/MN -- which also closes a path for Biden.
If Trump gets both, then Biden can still win, but he'll have to hold the blue wall in MI/WI/MN or he'll have to pick off GA or NC (in addition to holding AZ).
edit: 538's scenario generator gives the following chances:
Trump wins PA, Biden wins FL: 89% Biden
Biden wins PA, Trump wins FL: 91% Biden
Trump wins both: 89% Trump
Biden wins both: 99% Biden
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