The Z Machine
Footballguy
Rice having a game.
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⚽ Soccer Match-day Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Well this doesn't suck
After watching those two Rice goals, I find this statistic this much more absurd
Declan Rice direct free-kicks scored in his career to date (matches with full data coverage):
0 - First 381 matches
2 - Inside 12 minutes vs Real Madrid tonight
I thought the first one was unreal. And then the second one could not have been placed any better - the slow mo tucked into the top right hand side netting, just crazy.
Declan Rice direct free-kicks scored in his career to date (matches with full data coverage):
0 - First 381 matches
2 - Inside 12 minutes vs Real Madrid tonight
I thought the first one was unreal. And then the second one could not have been placed any better - the slow mo tucked into the top right hand side netting, just crazy.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Carlo out
titusbramble
Footballguy
Well I think it's the playoffs for us now, so as a result we're not going up
B Maverick
Footballguy
I guess we'll see how the return leg goes for Arsenal.
Real Madrid at home in the CL is never an easy task, but 3-0 does help.
Bayern 1-2 Inter is anyone's guess in Italy.
Real Madrid at home in the CL is never an easy task, but 3-0 does help.
Bayern 1-2 Inter is anyone's guess in Italy.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Holy **** there was some fantastic goals today.
B Maverick
Footballguy
Looks like Barca wanted to put this one away early. 4-0 win over Dortmund
Villa is down but not out with the return leg at home. Losing 3-1 to PSG who tend to bottle the CL like Arsenal bottles the EPL.
Villa is down but not out with the return leg at home. Losing 3-1 to PSG who tend to bottle the CL like Arsenal bottles the EPL.
El Floppo
Footballguy
I just saw Rices goals at lunch today. Great googly..
AAABatteries
Footballguy
As good as they were and they were great, the Inter goal was even better IMO. Unreal.
El Floppo
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
The PSG stoppage time goal is a killer.
El Floppo
Footballguy
That was insanely pretty... But in terms of pure perfect technique, both of Rices were better for me.
I judge by way of...I could have done that vs no freaking way could I do that.
B Maverick
Footballguy
Reminded me of this comment from OGS about xG
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer: 'I don't believe in xG'
4 March, 12:22
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, currently managing Besiktas in Turkey, has expressed skepticism toward the Expected Goals (xG) statistic, suggesting that its value diminishes when not accounting for the individual taking the shot.
"If you and I had the chance to kick the ball from the same spot, the xG would be 0.2, but I’ll score that goal, you won’t. Maybe you will, I don’t know," Solskjaer explained, highlighting how different players can approach the same opportunity differently.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
The thing the elevates the Inter goal for me is it was from open play and required 2 world class touches to pull off.
ETA - and that ignores the pinpoint cross. Just a perfect team goal
El Floppo
Footballguy
Oh.. absolutely on all counts. Even starting from Martinez winning the header at MF to start the whole thing... Also loved the guy on the left dancing by the BM defender at MF to open up the pass that led to the pinpoint cross, that led to the back heel, that led to that perfect outside of the foot golazo.
The whole thing top to bottom was amazing.
But no hyperbole... I was capable of doing every step of that (not vs pros of course), and did at various points including a similar outside of the foot goal like that.
I hit a bunch of direct free kicks in for goals... Almost had one like his first (hit the inside of the post and bounced back into play) but never anything like that second.
So for me... Those two were the most impressive on the day. And I freaking loved Inters goal.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Messi has just been lights out this year. I thought he was finally trending down at the end of last year but he has such a pep in his game this season.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
He saw people watching Declan Rice highlights and took it personally.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I wonder if he is holding out hope for one more run next summer. I don't know if his health can hold out but he is playing very very well right now
=========================
https://x.com/FabrizioRomano
Fabrizio Romano
@FabrizioRomano
Leo Messi scores a brace and provides an assist… as Inter Miami reach Concacaf semi finals!
8 goals and 3 assists in the first 9 games of new season at Inter Miami for Messi, reaching 858 career goals.
encaitar
Footballguy
He should be. He's absolutely capable of helping Argentina next summer. Probably shouldn't be looked at as an every game starter so as not to wear him down over the tourney, but if Argentina were to use him as a super sub or something similar. Bring him on at halftime every game etc. I think he'd kill in that role versus tired legs. Then let him give you everything he's got come quarters/semis/finals etc.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Fun ending in the Pumas vs Vancouver Champions Cup game last night. Vancouver gave up the lead in the 88th minute and then won the game in added time on away goals.
El Floppo
Footballguy
I hope he's there.
He's not really an "everything he's got" player any more though, right? Even last WC, he was getting slagged for how much walking around he did.
Of course, when he's giving his 100%, even during brief spurts that's better than anybody in the planet, possibly ever. So I guess, how do they incorporate his spurts without compromising the overall team shape and approach?
encaitar
Footballguy
I have no problems with disagreements, even if that's not what you were doing there. Forums like these are meant for reading differing points of view in a friendly manner IMO.
I also agree with your point more than my own. When I said give everything he's got, I meant in his own sense. We know he's not going to press for 90 minutes, but that's fine. Argentina has a very well balanced squad. They have enough young players to press hard all game, while also having a good number of guys later in their primes that won't panic when things break down. Add a couple of old guys like Messi and Otamendi to provide their expertise to each end of the pitch and you have a squad that can absolutely give another title a run. The brief spells of Messi being "the best in the world" is a luxury that a team like Argentina can afford.
El Floppo
Footballguy
Fte, I don't mind disagreeing with you all and voicing it. That last post when I reread it, seemed that way when I actually agreed with you and was just trying to suss it out a bit.
B Maverick
Footballguy
Onana runs his mouth then lets that goal in? FFS
B Maverick
Footballguy
Onana runs his mouth then lets that goal in? FFS
titusbramble
Footballguy
Too early in the day for a third pint but it is what it is, season lives or dies in the next 3 hours
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
CCV channels the ghost of Roberto Carlos. Swear it looks like the ball is accelerating across the entirety of the shot.
What a bomb.
What a bomb.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Toffees stoppage time goal at Nottingham has got things pretty tight from #3 to #7 in the table.
titusbramble
Footballguy
And it dies.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Hope Jorginho is OK there. Feels like a weird situation that he was doubled over on one end of the field then came down the field and has some sort of chest injury where he's not moving his right arm.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
MLS refs are such ****
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Spurs just giving up on league play? 
B Maverick
Footballguy
Didn't get to watch live but scrolled through a bit later. First half wasn't terrible. Nice goals by both teams. Stopped watching after it went 2-1 knowing the result.
Basically for United (and Spurs probably) its about Europa. Neither are getting relegated needing 2-3 points out of the final 6 matches. But winning Europa is a huge boost for next season.
Basically for United (and Spurs probably) its about Europa. Neither are getting relegated needing 2-3 points out of the final 6 matches. But winning Europa is a huge boost for next season.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Yep, basically this. The second leg of Spurs/SGE is so much more important for Spurs as SGE can quite easily lock up a CL spot domestically just by having a decent enough Bundesliga run in. Spurs have nothing else to play for
B Maverick
Footballguy
Any movement up the table means more prize money, but realistically its probably not a significant increase where winning Europa gets into CL and that is huge for transfers and $$
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Ah, the rookie here didn’t know this.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Yeah, while each spot you go up in the PL is worth more than £2m (not sure exactly what it is now, it was that the last time we were there), it pales into comparison compared to CL appearance money (and four sell outs given Spurs' elite monetisation of their stadium)
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I mean, that still makes it a useful stat?
B Maverick
Footballguy
I think it was around 10 years ago, to help make the competition more desirable they granted winners a birth in the CL. May have been the same time they gave a birth to the CL winner from the previous season as well.
titusbramble
Footballguy
The latter predated the former by a long, long way - there was certainly an event in the 80s where Liverpool played Forest in the first round of the European Cup where one won the league and the other had won the Big Cup. I do think it went away at one point - it might have been when they thought whoever would win would be a lock to qualify automatically, but they got found out when Liverpool again won the CL but had failed to qualify, then they gave them dispensation to qualify from the first round, probably the year they played Total Network Solutions. They soon fixed that, but I'm fairly sure that was before they started bumping the UEFA Cup (as it was at the time) winner into the following season's CL. There's a reason why Sevilla have so many titles
B Maverick
Footballguy
Sure it can be useful, but I think his point is that it doesn't tell the whole story, like a lot of stats.
Does the stat take into consideration WHO is getting the chance? I mean does the xG change if the ball is falling to Salah, Lewa, Kane vs Hojlund, Nunez, or Havertz?
B Maverick
Footballguy
Yeah I seem to remember when Liverpool won the CL (05?) and then complained they were not allowed to defend the title. So must be about 10 years between those changes happening.
And Sevilla keeps winning Europa by finishing 3rd in the CL group stages and dropping down.
But the new format removed that so Sevilla misses out.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
The Gator
Footballguy
well, with that stache and head tats, smart decisions aren't his strong suit
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
My entire point is that xG is a tool in understanding the exact phenomenon Ole is describing. The entire point of the standard xG model is that it assumes an average finishing percentage from the spot of the shot. Which allows you to understand that if Ole was getting 22 goals in a season out of an xG posiition of 18 goals, then his finishing was obviously a valuable quality.
It helps you attempt to quantify things like finishing, or off ball movement that are qualities you may be looking for. Nobody in the history of soccer analysis has ever suggested that you just look at xG and declare the team with the most xG the winner or something.
It's also almost certainly true that a team with a top analytics department like Liverpool almost certainly does have player dependent xG models that are proprietary to them. They almost certainly know the xG value of a shot from Mo Salah from a certain position as compared to a shot from Luis Diaz from the same position. And if Ole didn't have that type of data at Man U, he probably should have just asked.
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