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2006 IDP Consistency (1 Viewer)

Tick

Footballguy
Okay, I looked at my Zealots league, and the average score of starters for each position was:LB 7.6DB 6.6DL 5.1I decided to see how many bad, decent, and good games each player had. To figure out the cutoffs between types of games, I took 67% of the average and 133% of the average.So, the cutoffs were:LBs: Bad game = 0 to 5.07 points.Decent game = 5.07 to 10.13 pointsGood game = 10.13 points +.DBs:Bad = 0-4.4Decent = 4.4-8.8Good = 8.8+DLs:Bad = 0=3.4Decent = 3.4-6.8Good = 6.8+I'll paste in the results for the top 60 at each position.

 
Bad Mid Good Player2 4 10 Vilma, Jonathan NYJ LB2 9 5 Edwards, Donnie SDC LB3 7 6 Peterson, Mike JAC LB3 7 6 Fletcher, London BUF LB5 6 5 Thomas, Adalius BAL LB2 9 5 Bulluck, Keith TEN LB2 3 9 Thomas, Zach MIA LB3 9 4 Barnett, Nick GBP LB5 6 5 Williams, Demorrio ATL LB6 2 8 Vrabel, Mike NEP LB4 7 5 Brooking, Keith ATL LB6 4 6 Tatupu, Lofa SEA LB2 9 5 Quarles, Shelton TBB LB4 7 5 Thurman, Odell CIN LB2 9 5 Davis, Andra CLE LB4 6 6 Urlacher, Brian CHI LB3 8 5 Brooks, Derrick TBB LB3 9 4 Marshall, Lemar WAS LB3 8 5 Briggs, Lance CHI LB3 10 3 Brackett, Gary IND LB2 3 8 Pierce, Antonio NYG LB4 5 6 Trotter, Jeremiah PHI LB4 8 4 Washington, Marcus WAS LB3 6 4 June, Cato IND LB4 7 4 Dansby, Karlos ARI LB2 10 3 Crowell, Angelo BUF LB3 9 4 Smith, Derek M SFO LB1 11 2 Farrior, James PIT LB5 8 3 Greenwood, Morlon HOU LB5 10 1 Mitchell, Kawika KCC LB6 5 4 Witherspoon, Will CAR LB5 9 2 Morrison, Kirk OAK LB6 7 3 Tinoisamoa, Pisa STL LB7 5 4 Foote, Larry PIT LB6 8 2 Clark, Danny OAK LB5 9 2 Gold, Ian DEN LB6 7 3 Porter, Joey PIT LB5 10 1 Johnson, Derrick O. KCC LB5 9 2 Polley, Tommy BAL LB9 3 4 Scott, Bart BAL LB8 6 2 Simmons, Brian CIN LB8 6 2 Greisen, Nick NYG LB7 6 3 Taylor, Ben CLE LB6 8 2 Thompson, Chaun CLE LB6 5 3 Darling, James ARI LB7 8 1 James, Bradie DAL LB8 5 2 Wilson, Al DEN LB7 7 1 Peterson, Julian SFO LB10 5 1 Kassell, Brad TEN LB9 4 3 Merriman, Shawne SDC LB8 8 0 Smith, Daryl JAC LB5 5 3 Haggans, Clark PIT LB7 8 1 Polk, Dashon HOU LB9 6 1 Moore, Brandon SFO LB7 7 1 Cowart, Sam MIN LB6 6 2 Godfrey, Randall SDC LB6 8 1 Hill, Leroy SEA LB4 8 1 Morgan, Dan CAR LB8 7 1 Colvin, Rosevelt NEP LB10 5 1 Ware, Demarcus DAL LB

 
Bad Mid Good Player4 2 9 Tillman, Charles CHI CB2 3 10 McGee, Terrence BUF CB1 8 7 Wilson, Adrian ARI S2 7 7 Barber, Ronde TBB CB2 5 7 Bailey, Champ DEN CB3 6 6 Gamble, Chris CAR CB1 8 7 Dawkins, Brian PHI S4 5 6 Hall, Deangelo ATL CB3 8 5 Knight, Sammy KCC S2 8 6 Wilson, Gibril NYG S4 8 4 Law, Ty NYJ CB3 9 4 Polamalu, Troy PIT S7 1 6 Sharper, Darren MIN S8 1 7 Vasher, Nathan CHI CB6 3 6 O'Neal, Deltha CIN CB6 5 5 Brown, Sheldon PHI CB2 8 5 Spencer, Shawntae SFO CB2 10 4 Williams, Roy DAL S2 11 3 Lewis, Michael PHI S2 9 5 Clements, Nate BUF CB5 5 6 Winfield, Antoine MIN CB1 10 5 Coleman, Erik NYJ S4 8 4 Mathis, Rashean JAC CB4 10 2 Kennedy, Kenoy DET S4 8 4 Taylor, Ike PIT CB4 9 3 Wesley, Greg KCC S3 9 4 Rhodes, Kerry NYJ S2 5 5 Williams, Darrent DEN CB5 8 3 McCree, Marlon CAR S4 6 5 Lucas, Ken CAR CB4 10 2 Schweigert, Stuart OAK S4 8 4 Boulware, Michael SEA S5 6 5 Hope, Chris PIT S3 8 4 Jones, Pacman TEN CB4 8 3 Taylor, Sean WAS S3 8 3 Adams, Mike SFO CB2 4 6 Brown, Mike CHI S3 9 4 Milloy, Lawyer BUF S2 12 2 Kaesviharn, Kevin CIN S5 7 4 Thomas, Fred NOS CB5 7 4 Ferguson, Nick DEN S3 9 4 Schulters, Lance MIA S3 12 1 Roman, Mark GBP S6 8 2 Foxworth, Domonique DEN CB7 6 3 Robinson, Dunta HOU CB6 7 3 Newman, Terence DAL CB6 5 3 Archuleta, Adam STL S7 5 4 Babineaux, Jordan SEA S5 4 4 Bodden, Leigh CLE S6 8 2 McCutcheon, Daylon CLE CB6 7 3 Collins, Nick GBP S7 6 3 Macklin, David ARI CB5 7 3 Harper, Nick IND CB7 6 3 Jammer, Quentin SDC CB5 5 4 Sanders, Bob IND S8 4 4 Crocker, Chris CLE S8 7 1 Harris, Al GBP CB6 5 4 Webster, Jason ATL CB5 7 3 Smith, Dwight NOS S7 6 3 Furrey, Mike STL S

 
Bad Mid Good Player4 6 6 Taylor, Jason MIA DE3 5 8 Umenyiora, Osi NYG DE4 2 10 Burgess, Derrick OAK DE4 4 8 Schobel, Aaron BUF DE2 5 9 Strahan, Michael NYG DE4 6 6 Allen, Jared KCC DE3 7 6 Suggs, Terrell BAL DE0 6 7 Mathis, Robert IND DE6 4 6 Vanden Bosch, Kyle TEN DE2 8 6 Roye, Orpheus CLE DT4 6 6 Abraham, John NYJ DE4 2 9 Rice, Simeon TBB DE3 7 6 Kampman, Aaron GBP DE3 7 6 Smith, Will NOS DE3 5 6 Little, Leonard STL DE6 5 5 Peppers, Julius CAR DE6 4 6 Coleman, Rod ATL DT7 5 4 Daniels, Philip WAS DE8 4 4 Fisher, Bryce SEA DE4 10 2 Bernard, Robert SEA DT6 6 4 Henderson, John JAC DT8 3 5 Freeney, Dwight IND DE7 2 5 Hall, James DET DE7 5 4 Okeafor, Chike ARI DE4 10 2 Gbaja-Biamila, Kabeer GBP DE4 8 4 Smith, Justin CIN DE6 6 4 Kerney, Patrick ATL DE5 5 5 Ogunleye, Adewale CHI DE8 4 4 McKinley, Alvin CLE DT7 4 4 Kearse, Jevon PHI DE7 5 4 Holliday, Vonnie MIA DE7 6 3 Reed, James NYJ DT7 4 4 Rucker, Mike CAR DE6 7 3 Hargrove, Tony STL DE8 4 4 Brown, Alex CHI DE7 4 5 Carter, Kevin MIA DE7 4 5 Ellis, Greg DAL DE4 6 4 Rogers, Shaun DET DT4 6 3 Reagor, Montae IND DT8 4 4 Brock, Raheem IND DE7 5 4 Payne, Seth HOU DT9 3 4 White, Dewayne TBB DE10 3 3 Grant, Charles NOS DE5 9 2 Scott, Darrion MIN DE5 9 2 Pickett, Ryan STL DT5 5 4 Hamilton, Bobby OAK DE4 11 1 Smith, Robaire HOU DE8 7 1 Kelly, Tommy OAK DE8 5 2 Spicer, Paul JAC DE7 2 4 Young, Bryant SFO DT10 1 5 Edwards, Kalimba DET DE6 9 1 Douglas, Marques SFO DE6 6 4 Hicks, Eric KCC DE7 7 2 Williams, Pat MIN DT3 6 3 Seymour, Richard NEP DE9 4 3 Wistrom, Grant SEA DE9 2 4 Cole, Trent PHI DE6 4 3 Tubbs, Marcus SEA DT8 7 1 Warren, Ty NEP DE10 2 3 Tripplett, Larry IND DT

 
Note that the games don't always add up to 16 - I removed any games where MFL had a blank, which I believe means they missed the game, instead of playing the game and scoring 0 points.

 
Was I the only one who thought Bart Scott looked very talented when he started playing at OLB for the Ravens midway through the year? The guy is a fast, physical tackler who looks pretty darn good out there. Tommy Polley looks soft to me, I think Scott can beat him out and start next year. Could be a good sleeper to look out for..

 
I like this sort of thinking - how often a guy meets a threshold. I'm going to analyze my league in this manner once things settle down in life, but I'm mostly interested in trying to work edges on RB/WR/TE, and to a lesser extent DB.It gives you a response to always start your studs - guys with 3 or less bad starts are your consistent producers, while the guys with 6 or more are the risky feast or famine guys. Not really surprising to see a guy like Vasher being highly erratic.

 
Yeah, I noticed some expected variability among the big-play positions: CBs, 3-4 LBs, DEs. I'll take a closer look sometime to see if there's anything unexpected in there.

 
I tried to graph the results for correlation. The only conclusion that I was able to reach was that higher scoring players were more likely to fall into the higher a "higher rating range" than lower ranges. I could not find any consistency correlation based on position (i.e. LB more than DBs on DL) or any other connection for the data. This after the adjustment for positional averages. For individual players the sample is to small (but rather interesting). I suspect the variance is connected to the non-tackle categories (interceptions, etc.) or "playmaker" abilities of individual players, but I did not try to prove this.Perhaps, others will have more success in finding a mathmatical correlation.

 
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I think having a pretty stable D is what makes my Zealots team competitive. My LBs and DE's carry my team.LBsZach ThomasAndra DavisBrian UrlacherGary BrackettDE'sJustin SmithJulius PeppersRobert MathisOsi UmenyioraMy DB's are always hurt and pretty inconsistentAdam ArchuletaTony ParrishBob Sanders

 
I think having a pretty stable D is what makes my Zealots team competitive. My LBs and DE's carry my team.

LBs

Zach Thomas

Andra Davis

Brian Urlacher

Gary Brackett

DE's

Justin Smith

Julius Peppers

Robert Mathis

Osi Umenyiora

My DB's are always hurt and pretty inconsistent

Adam Archuleta

Tony Parrish

Bob Sanders
I was pretty close to you in strength/depth at IDP in one of my Zealots teams:DL

Mathis, Robert IND DE (P)

Peppers, Julius CAR DE

Strahan, Michael NYG DE

Taylor, Jason MIA DE

LB

Barnett, Nick GBP LB

Dansby, Karlos ARI LB (P)

Mitchell, Kawika KCC LB

Pierce, Antonio NYG LB

Spikes, Takeo BUF LB (I)

Ulbrich, Jeff SFO LB (I)

DB

O'Neal, Deltha CIN CB

Alexander, Brent NYG S

Brown, Mike CHI S

Bullocks, Josh NOS S

Wilson, Gibril NYG S

 
Okay, I looked at my Zealots league, and the average score of starters for each position was:

LB 7.6

DB 6.6

DL 5.1
How did you define 'starters'? NFL starters or each Z teams' starters?I just went week-by-week and sorted for the top 30 DBs each week. Breaking them into thirds, the #30 DB of the week averaged 8.3, the #20 was 10.0, and the #10 was 12.6. You might be cheating yourself if you call 4.4-8.0 decent. At 8.0 you aren't even breaking the average #30. BTW - the lowest #30 score was 7.5 in 4 different weeks.

 
Okay, I looked at my Zealots league, and the average score of starters for each position was:

LB 7.6

DB 6.6

DL 5.1
How did you define 'starters'? NFL starters or each Z teams' starters?I just went week-by-week and sorted for the top 30 DBs each week. Breaking them into thirds, the #30 DB of the week averaged 8.3, the #20 was 10.0, and the #10 was 12.6. You might be cheating yourself if you call 4.4-8.0 decent. At 8.0 you aren't even breaking the average #30. BTW - the lowest #30 score was 7.5 in 4 different weeks.
There was a summary page somewhere on MFL that gave every team's average points scored at each position over the season. It also gave average bench points.The problem with using DB#30 is that you've got 10 CBs who get INTs and return yards each week that are in the top 30. That's not indicative of what people are starting, though.

I was about to embark on some annoying spreadsheet project to get the info before I found the summary on MFL. I was pretty happy.

 
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Great work Tick! This will certainly be helpful in analyzing free agents and making decisions on who to keep and who to cut and trade issues in Dynasty leagues. :thumbup:

 
There was a summary page somewhere on MFL that gave every team's average points scored at each position over the season. It also gave average bench points.

The problem with using DB#30 is that you've got 10 CBs who get INTs and return yards each week that are in the top 30. That's not indicative of what people are starting, though.

I was about to embark on some annoying spreadsheet project to get the info before I found the summary on MFL. I was pretty happy.
I've been usign that for a while. One thing you need to look at is not the toal points per team, but average score per player. If you start looking at points per team, it screws up when there's a flex spot - some teams start a 3-4 some a 4-3, so teams with a 3-4 should have more total LB points & less DL points.
 

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