I seem to remember Greg Kellogg posting about a survivor draft years ago in which he had done some analysis that showed that point production was much improved by adding a third player at the single starter positions (in this case QB, TE, K, TD), but I can't find the relevant posts. I think he was posting specifically about kicker and defense, but it makes logical sense to me for any single starter position, particularly given the need to cover bye weeks. So I wanted to go with 3 at each of those positions. But I also wanted 5 RBs and 6 WRs, which meant I was one position short... so I took two top kickers and went with only 2 at that position, and met my target number of players at each of the other positions.
My team:
QB - Jay Cutler - 14
QB - Kurt Warner - 5
QB - Matt Ryan - 4
Kind of surprised not to see Cutler on more teams; he is a likely top 8 QB at a reasonable price. Warner has been discussed enough - big upside for low cost. I think Ryan will surprise with a few big games this year. Ryan and Warner have the same bye week - week 7 - so hopefully Cutler will play well that week. And Cutler's bye week is week 8, so I have to hope Warner holds the starting job at least that long to give me two options that week.
RB - Clinton Portis - 33
RB - Ryan Grant - 32
RB - Ricky Williams - 8
RB - Ray Rice - 4
RB - Steve Slaton - 1
It seems that Williams, Rice, and Slaton are among the most owned players, so no discussion needed on them. Portis and Grant seemed like two solid anchors for this group at reasonable prices. Portis and Rice have the same bye week - week 10 - and Grant and Slaton have the same bye week - week 8.
WR - Calvin Johnson - 25
WR - Brandon Marshall - 23
WR - Steve Smith - 23
WR - Ted Ginn - 13
WR - Jabar Gaffney - 7
WR - Antonio Bryant - 2
Surprised more people did not go for both Marshall and Smith. I am gambling that I'll be able to get through the first two weeks without them, but if I do, I think both of them will be top 10 performers the rest of the way - good value. I figured if the rest of my team isn't good enough to get me to week 3, then it was a lost cause anyway.
I am also surprised that Gaffney is not on more teams at his price. I thought the news of Jackson getting cut bumped his value considerably.
Unfortunately, Calvin Johnson, Ginn, and Gaffney all have byes in week 4. I missed that... hope it doesn't kill my chances.
TE - Todd Heap - 15
TE - L.J. Smith - 12
TE - Alge Crumpler - 11
I may have overspent here, but at least it's possible for TE to fill the flex spot... although if that is happening on a regular basis, that's probably not a good sign... I think all of these guys are top 15 TEs, and their combined scoring should be equivalent to a top 5 TE. At least, that's my theory. No overlapping bye weeks.
PK - Nick Folk - 5
PK - Nate Kaeding - 4
As mentioned above, couldn't go with a third here, so instead I took two top kickers. They have different bye weeks.
TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3
TD - Buffalo Bills - 3
TD - Cleveland Browns - 3
3 underrated defenses that will hopefully combine for good scoring. No overlapping bye weeks.
I plugged this team into DD with the latest projections and looked at weekly scoring, using starters only with strength of schedule factored in. It shows me scoring below 130 points only twice - weeks 2 and 8. However, it still has Marshall not playing in week 2, so that score could come up. Anyway, weeks 2 and 8 look like my most likely weeks to miss the cut. If I were to make it all 16 weeks, DD projects this team to score 2227 points. I have no idea how that compares to other teams here or in past years.