What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2008 RB tiers and buckets (1 Viewer)

Opportunity 30%: How many touches are they going to get? Not a hard number but with what range can we think about where these guys might fall. Are there any threats to the numbers of touches from either Offensive Philosophy by the coach or the talent of the other RB on the field? Those are important factors in this score.

Offensive Line 30%: How good are the 5 uglies up front? Plain and simple, can they open holes for the RB or not.

Schedule 20%: Does it look easy or hard? Nothing is fool proof but I always think if you are off on a team that isn’t as strong as you thought, that gets offset by another team that ends up being much stronger than you expected.

Surrounding Talent 10%: Is Tom Brady your QB, or is McPenHenBeck your starter? It matters.

Intangibles 10%: A way for me to factor in things that the other categories do not allow.
Hey MOP,Thanks for the hard work.. I enjoyed reading your list and will post more thoughts on it later. Firstly, can you give us a better explanation as to how you came up with your different weights for each of the 5 categories.
Sure.Opp: I guess this is really about Offensive Philosophy as muh as anything. Does the OC or HC call the RBs number a lot? That's what we are looking at.

OL: I think this weighted with the Opp, makes up 6% of the score and i think that's fair.

The other 40% is a breakdown of schedule, surrounding talent at the skill positions, and finally intangibles. I think it's a fair system but I am always open to suggestions. I think schedule is important and that is all part of SOS.

 
Great write up MOP. Good to see you're still around this year as I loved the articles last year.You've actually convinced me to consider Selvin Young so don't let the nay sayers get to you.
We haven't had any yet. I expected some chuckles for where I put Mr Young but otherwise we haven't had a ton of disagreement so far. I'm playing catch up in the thread though so maybe there is some opposition around.
 
Well done. Selvin Young, eh?
I agreeInteresting read; but Selving is way to high IMHO
Has anyone noticed that the Bronco run offense is just average these days? I'm not just talking about the running backs either. It had been a FF standard that the Bronco's system would churn out top RB performances regardless of who's back there. After watching them last year I don't think this is the case any more - the line isn't nearly as good as it used to be, and I think a lot of the system's success was attributable to Kubiak and staff rather than Shanahan. The numbers were still there (9th in rushing yards per game, tied for 3rd in ypc), but they didn't score much on the ground, and watching them I didn't see the same level of dominance I've been used to. In a strictly one to one comparison with other NFL RBs (not considering system, line, etc)I don't think any of the RBs on the Bronco's roster belong in the upper tiers - in fact I think they're below average. Combine that with an offensive line that seems average right now, the fact that they all have some injury history (and thus depth chart instability) and I can't find many reasons to fixate on Bronco RBs to the extent some people have so far this preseason. Rating Selvin Young as anything higher than a C is questionable in my opinion. For myself I'm staying away from the Bronco RBs unless they're a ridiculous bargain.I do appreciate all the thought MOP puts into this stuff, and don't want this to seem like a general indictment of his effort, which is great as usual.But to another nitpick, I think both Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are way underrated by MOP. They're in a great system in which they've proven they can both be very, very productive simultaneously yet we don't see either one until the C+ tier.Oh yeah, Larry Johnson is getting underrated here too.
I fully expect the board to not be in the Young camp so no worries.But what the board is missing is that Selving Young can be had middle 5th round...I'm not telling you to take him as your RB1. I am saying that if you grab a Clinton portis in the 1st, Colston in the 2nd, Plax or something like that in the 3rd, 4th is whatever your flavor is, then in the 5th he should be sitting there and makes a great RB2 that you will have an advantage with a lot of the time. I think the fact people would question that pick is perfectly normal and I understand the skepticism but my methos is not bias, it simply is what it is.
 
Appreciate the work you put into this MOP. As for Young, I just don't see it but I'd rather see some shots taken than the same old rankings.

-- Broncos RB Update --

Mon Aug 11, 2008 --from FFMastermind.com

The Denver Post reports the Broncos rookie RB Ryan Torain is out three months with a dislocated elbow suffered in practice last week. Don't be surprised if the Broncos mix and match the backs. RB Selvin Young likely will start, but he's a slashing type who will need to keep his legs fresh to stay effective. RB Andre Hall was the most effective runner Saturday in the preseason opener against the Houston Texans, rushing eight times for 43 yards. But he's smaller than the prototype lead running back. RB Anthony Alridge, a rookie, is very fast but small. RB Michael Pittman, a veteran, is very strong, but not very fast. At the least, the running back competition is on. "Better believe it," Hall said. "It's going to help us get better. We've got a lot of room for improvement."

 
Great stuff, MOP. :goodposting:

Deep, insightful posts like these are what makes this place great - much appreciated.

 
Agreed on the props given to you MOP. Very good thoughts and exceptional write-up. I'll try to get some more time to finish what I started (got really busy, then had to run out right in the middle of my 1st post).

 
Great job MoP, nice write up. However, I'll go ahead and nitpick at one spot where I think you are completely wrong. You give Thomas Jones a C for opportunity. You seem concerned about Leon Washington. I objectively do not see how you can be less concerned with Brandon Jacobs opportunity (you give him a C+) than TJ's. A C for opportunity is way too low for this guy. Leon will get his share of touches, but I think the distribution will be pretty standard compared to other teams that have a number 1 RB and then another scat/3rd down RB. I think we can see the writing on the wall for TJ, at least as far as opportunity is concerned, in the fact that the Jets didn't move up to get McFadden, or take an RB early in the draft, or go out and add an RB in free agency or trade. I'm not saying that you should put TJ up another tier or two (although he is in my book), just that I'm really not seeing how you give him a C for opportunity, despite your analysis of the situation.

And for those of you criticizing MoP for not considering talent, I think it is clear that he takes it into account, at least implicitly, in the intangibles category. Less talented guys in decent enough offenses were not given relatively high grades just because of their situations (see Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham), so give him the benefit of the doubt that his Selvin Young analysis is more than just "the next great Denver RB" line of thinking.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think "intangibles" ranks about 70% and all of the other stuff is 30% at best.

If you did this at the beginning of last year and tried to rank Julius Jones and MB111 with these criteria, you'd come up with basically the same tier for them, but clearly they have about 20 RB's in between them on the ranking sheets (maybe more) once 2007 ended).

Opportunity - same

O-line - same

Surrounding talent - same

Schedule - same

difference is MB111 has better field vision, better moves, tougher to bring down, and the ability to find the endzone all better grading criteria than JJ and all of those would fall into "intangibles".

Experience in the league and old age (when will the RB have the major decline hit..go from a top 10 ranking to useless the following season) are critical as well. Just more intangibles.

 
:rolleyes:

Awesome stuff here MOP as usual. I am looking forward to your weekly RBs to Exploit/Avoid. I will be taking care of the

weekly WRs Exploit/Avoids. I am also now working on my top 100 WR list just to give people stuff to read and my thoughts.

I tend to agree with MOP. I like Selvin Young this year. The guy has no competition for carries. He could bust out in a

big way this year.

LB's Top 100 WRs coming soon!

 
I love J Lewis this year. Great surrounding talent, many opps, and a great run blocking OL. And really he's not had too much wear.
Those memories of Lewis tripping over his linemen on his way to 15 carries for 40 yards and no scores his last couple years in Baltimore are still too fresh in my memory.
 
davearm said:
Deuce said:
I love J Lewis this year. Great surrounding talent, many opps, and a great run blocking OL. And really he's not had too much wear.
Those memories of Lewis tripping over his linemen on his way to 15 carries for 40 yards and no scores his last couple years in Baltimore are still too fresh in my memory.
The funniest thing I read about him last year was from pigskin addiction (I think) something to effect that it's like he's running in gravy dipping his biscuits along the way
 
bigmiiiiike said:
Great job MoP, nice write up. However, I'll go ahead and nitpick at one spot where I think you are completely wrong. You give Thomas Jones a C for opportunity. You seem concerned about Leon Washington. I objectively do not see how you can be less concerned with Brandon Jacobs opportunity (you give him a C+) than TJ's. A C for opportunity is way too low for this guy. Leon will get his share of touches, but I think the distribution will be pretty standard compared to other teams that have a number 1 RB and then another scat/3rd down RB. I think we can see the writing on the wall for TJ, at least as far as opportunity is concerned, in the fact that the Jets didn't move up to get McFadden, or take an RB early in the draft, or go out and add an RB in free agency or trade. I'm not saying that you should put TJ up another tier or two (although he is in my book), just that I'm really not seeing how you give him a C for opportunity, despite your analysis of the situation.

And for those of you criticizing MoP for not considering talent, I think it is clear that he takes it into account, at least implicitly, in the intangibles category. Less talented guys in decent enough offenses were not given relatively high grades just because of their situations (see Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham), so give him the benefit of the doubt that his Selvin Young analysis is more than just "the next great Denver RB" line of thinking.
Big M,Good questions and thoughts. I am concerned about the "scat" back abilities of Leon Washington. The fact Leon can catch the ball so well out of the backfield makes me think he will be in there in almost any passing situation. If he also gets 30-35% possibly of the workload on the ground...

Let me share what I think about Jacobs. I feel he is the starter, most likely to get 20+ carries a game and if you look at his stats last season, you will see he does touch the ball plenty when he is on the field. I also think Bradshaw, his skills, and his touches, will be seperate from what Jacobs is given. I don't think they will steal a lot from each other.

I could see Favre telling the coaching staff that he feels more comfortable with Washingotn in there when they need to throw the ball. And if you alos believe as I do that the Jets are still a .500 team, it stands to reason they might be playing form behind, and in those games you will see a lot of Leon.

I appreciate you asking because if you guys think I shared a lot of thoughts in the OP, you can only imagine what I don't put in there :shrug:

 
Captain Spaulding said:
I think "intangibles" ranks about 70% and all of the other stuff is 30% at best.If you did this at the beginning of last year and tried to rank Julius Jones and MB111 with these criteria, you'd come up with basically the same tier for them, but clearly they have about 20 RB's in between them on the ranking sheets (maybe more) once 2007 ended).Opportunity - sameO-line - sameSurrounding talent - sameSchedule - samedifference is MB111 has better field vision, better moves, tougher to bring down, and the ability to find the endzone all better grading criteria than JJ and all of those would fall into "intangibles".Experience in the league and old age (when will the RB have the major decline hit..go from a top 10 ranking to useless the following season) are critical as well. Just more intangibles.
OK CS, but what about the fact that MB III got the goal line looks...doesn't that factor into Opportunity? I can severely cripple a rating on a RB by dropping the Opp form a "B" to a "D". I pretty much shot a hole thru Parker because I don't think he will sniff the ball a lot when they get close to the goal line...I might be in the minority but I have options with this system to weight the different categories. I am completely open minded in my approach though and if you all spot something that doesn't look right, please point it out. I put this together as much for myself over the next 3-4 weeks as I do for all of you. I learn a lot by reading what you all post back.
 
laughinboy_2000 said:
:shrug: Awesome stuff here MOP as usual. I am looking forward to your weekly RBs to Exploit/Avoid. I will be taking care of theweekly WRs Exploit/Avoids. I am also now working on my top 100 WR list just to give people stuff to read and my thoughts.I tend to agree with MOP. I like Selvin Young this year. The guy has no competition for carries. He could bust out in abig way this year.LB's Top 100 WRs coming soon!
And I hate to be redundant but I am not telling people to grab him in the 1st round...what I am saying is you can have this guy pretty easily in the 5th round of most 12 team leagues right now...people were falling all over themselves fro getting Portis in the late 2nd/early 3rd last year...I figured if you can find a frontline RB in the 5th that folks would be doing cartwheels. Even if you are an RB stud theorist, this gives you an option so you don't have to go RB-RB-RB out of the box.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
davearm said:
Deuce said:
I love J Lewis this year. Great surrounding talent, many opps, and a great run blocking OL. And really he's not had too much wear.
Those memories of Lewis tripping over his linemen on his way to 15 carries for 40 yards and no scores his last couple years in Baltimore are still too fresh in my memory.
Have you seen the OL they have built in Cleveland? It's easily one of the top5 in the league heading into 2008 IMHO. It doesn't matter who they face, most of the time that OL will have the upper hand. I screamed as loud as I could that Cleveland had the best pick with their LT out of Wisconsin last year to go next to Eric Steinbach who they picked up from Cinci...a division team which is just criminal. Do the Bengalfans really wonder why they never turn it around when you let Pro Bowl talent on your OL slip away to a division rival?Dave, I would invite you to rethink your POV, and gather as much info as you can about the 5 uglies up front for Cleveland. I own Lewis is sevral leagues including dyansty where I should be trading him to get a future pick...but I think he will be solid this year and has too much firepower behind him at QB.
 
S.Jackson not in camp and a holdout this late(possibly lasting well into the regular season) and a bad OL with a QB coming off injury; has me figuring a lot less opportunities & intangibles at this point in time. Dropping....

 
S.Jackson not in camp and a holdout this late(possibly lasting well into the regular season) and a bad OL with a QB coming off injury; has me figuring a lot less opportunities & intangibles at this point in time. Dropping....
Good points and my board can be fluid if need be. I am assuming he will get in camp though, even if it is the week of the opener...I just don't believe yet that he will be a total no show.
 
Just a few points on opportunity:

Darren McFadden (4.07)

Opp (B): I really don’t have a lot to base this on but I just cannot believe he was taken in the top5 but is stuck in a 2 back rotation system unless he proves he cannot handle the load. Oakland has a rookie basically under Center so I don’t think this is going to be a wide open offense. In fact I think DMac, Fargas, and even Bush may all have their moments during the season but I also think McFadden will get at least 15-18 touches a game or Al Davis’ head will simply explode.

OL (C+): The Raiders avg 4.1 ypc last season. They have 3 of those starters returning and have added John Wade from TB, and Kwame Harris will likely step in at LT for Barry Sims which might be an upgrade to some extent. Not the OL that some people think but it’s not horrible by any stretch, possibly even improving.

Sch (C+): DEN, @KC, @ Buf to open the season. Actually it is a very nice schedule for most of the season but look what he faces in weeks 14 and 15, typically the opening of the playoffs in most leagues…@SD, NE, those two games sort of dampen my enthusiasm a bit. It’s the timing of those games more than anything. Would rather they played them in weeks 1 and 2.

Surround (D): JeMarcus might be good long term but he is not a top20 QB, not even top25 likely. Javon Walker wants to retire, Curry is not a WR1, other than the 2nd year TE Zach Miller, I don’t like a lot of the skill position players presently.

Intangibles (B): I like his skill set and think he will show some flashed of why people loved him coming out of college. The fact is though he doesn’t play on a high octane offense yet, and he will have a learning curve tog et over as he enters the NFL.

Overall (C+): A guy that is very interesting to take in PPR leagues on the 3/ 4 turn.

“C” tier
I have to disagree here.. I think that 15-18 touches a game would be around the max McFadden will see this year. I think he'll do well playing behind the Raiders good run blocking offensive line, but I don't see him garnering that many touches. He and Fargas should split carries this year with Michael Bush stealing goal line and short yardage carries. I suspect he'll see some where around 10-11 carries/game and 2-3 catches/game his rookie year. I don't think McFadden will ever be a 20+ carry/game back, and especially not with Fargas and Bush on the roster.
Thomas Jones (5.01)

Opp (C ): He is going to get a good amount of the carries, but I still see Washington gobbling up catches and potential touches. This could score out higher if he takes a more traditional role with Favre taking the snaps.

OL (B): You can’t grade them on the 3.8 ypc they amassed with Clemens/Pennington starting, and the addition of Alan Faneca cannot be undersold here. I think they will be much improved at running the football, and hopefully the addition of Brett Favre will

Help with the urn game even more.

Sch (C+): NE and SD in the 1st 3 weeks. After the week 5 bye there is nice a soft part where they will face CIN, @Oak, KC, @Buf, St L…should be some good games in there. Den, @SF, BUF, @Sea for the playoff stretch.

Surround (B): Favre is an upgrade at QB, plain and simple. Coles and COtchery are not flashy but I think they will be improved with Favre.

Intangibles (B): You have to love the addition of Brett Favre. Jones has some skills and look at what Favre has done with guys like Dorsey Levens, Ahman Green, Ryan Grant, it’s long and distinctive list.

Overall (C ): Jones is another guy I think you want on your radar on the 3/ 4 turn if you go WR/WR or WR/QB on the 1/ 2 turn.
The Jets went out and spent a lot of money to get Thomas Jones two years ago to help their running game. They fed him the ball a ton, but the blocking really stunk last year. So this off season they went out and spent a lot of money again to help improve their running game. I see no reason why they won't feed Jones the ball a ton again this year. Leon Washington is a great returner and a good receiver out of the backfield, but he is nothing more than a change of pace back. How many carries do you expect him to steal this year? I think Jones gets the bulk of the work, and should see an increase in TDs as the Jets offense is greatly improved.
Willie “no longer fast” Parker (4.05)

Opp (D): Think he might not get 300+ carries this season? I just see a split right down the middle for the Steeler backfield and I also don’t see Parker getting goal line touches exclusively either.

OL (B-): I’ll sum it up like this. I think the OL is going to be OK at run blocking, the challenge will be pass protection for them but that should not impact their run blocking skills.

Sch (C ): The regular season is OK, but starting in week 13, the money weeks, here is how the schedule shakes out…@NE, DAL, @Bal, @TN…not exactly easy by any stretch.

Surround (A): Big Ben, Ward, Miller, Holmes, Sweed, and others make up a superior skill position set around for Parker/Mendenhall.

Intangibles (D): Writing is on the wall, and I think Parker will lose a significant amount of carries to the rookie.

Overall (C ): Fairly short write up for Parker but I just don’t have much to say about him. I think it’s obvious his time as an RB1 getting 70% of the workload…just isn’t going to happen. Factor in an OL that lost Alan Faneca, and a tough schedule down the stretch, put that all together and I don’t like the end result too much. No way I am grabbing Parker in the late 3rd-middle 4th round.
While I don't see Willie Parker getting too many goal line carries, I think he still gets the bulk of the carries for the Steelers. He is still capable of breaking off long runs. Mendy is very talented, but I don't see him getting a 50/50 split with the proven vet. I also think the Steelers will run the ball enough so that Mendy won't have to steal too many of FWPs carries. A grade of D is just too low here IMO.
LenDale White (5.06)

Opp (C-): The presence of a 2nd RB will be felt. I believe he is in a split situation at best, and I doubt he will be getting many catches out of the backfield. Good thing is he shared a backfield with Reggie Bush in college so he can function even when he isn’t the primary back. I think some weeks White will be featured more than others.

OL (B-): They ran very well behind the LT Michael Roos last season…no wonder they paid that guy a big sum of money. Jake Scott will be the RG, and Amano/Harris will fight it out for the LG spot. Both starting Guards left or retired in the off season, but that’s OK because they needed to improve there anyways.

Sch (C ): JAX, MN, @Bal all before the week 6 bye. IND, GB, @Chi, @Jax in the 2nd half, playoffs are pretty alright with @Det, CLE, @Hou, and PIT to close things out…perhaps this schedule could be slightly higher.

Surround (D): Crumpler but not much else in the WR/TE stable to speak of. Young is not a great passing QB yet either.

Intangibles (C-): Chris Johnson is gaining on his touches day by day in camp. The OC came out and basically is trying to see how many carries a game he can give to Johnson, in other words he sounds like he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as much as possible…that doesn’t bode well for White.

Overall (D+): I don’t think he will be the guy that owners want as the season progresses.
The Titans had a 2nd back last year...Chris Brown. He proved to be a good change of pace to Lendale when he was healthy. I love Chris Johnson just as much as anyone, but I see him as nothing more than a change of pace back. He has awesome speed and they are going to want to use him in space so I think he will get a high number of receptions. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 receptions/game, but no more than 10 carries a game for the rookie. Lendale showed he could carry most of the load last year, and he wasn't even fully healthy. He should see around the same amount of work as last year... maybe a 10% decrease in carries. He will also see all the short yardage and goal line carries. Fischer is the type of coach who likes a RB to grind it out and wear a defense down.
 
laughinboy_2000 said:
:thumbup: Awesome stuff here MOP as usual. I am looking forward to your weekly RBs to Exploit/Avoid. I will be taking care of theweekly WRs Exploit/Avoids. I am also now working on my top 100 WR list just to give people stuff to read and my thoughts.I tend to agree with MOP. I like Selvin Young this year. The guy has no competition for carries. He could bust out in abig way this year.LB's Top 100 WRs coming soon!
And I hate to be redundant but I am not telling people to grab him in the 1st round...what I am saying is you can have this guy pretty easily in the 5th round of most 12 team leagues right now...people were falling all over themselves fro getting Portis in the late 2nd/early 3rd last year...I figured if you can find a frontline RB in the 5th that folks would be doing cartwheels. Even if you are an RB stud theorist, this gives you an option so you don't have to go RB-RB-RB out of the box.
Trust me when I say I'm NOT getting Young within the first four rounds. Anyone who does draft Young within the first three rounds needs to have their head examined.
 
Just a few points on opportunity:

Darren McFadden (4.07)

Opp (B): I really don’t have a lot to base this on but I just cannot believe he was taken in the top5 but is stuck in a 2 back rotation system unless he proves he cannot handle the load. Oakland has a rookie basically under Center so I don’t think this is going to be a wide open offense. In fact I think DMac, Fargas, and even Bush may all have their moments during the season but I also think McFadden will get at least 15-18 touches a game or Al Davis’ head will simply explode.

OL (C+): The Raiders avg 4.1 ypc last season. They have 3 of those starters returning and have added John Wade from TB, and Kwame Harris will likely step in at LT for Barry Sims which might be an upgrade to some extent. Not the OL that some people think but it’s not horrible by any stretch, possibly even improving.

Sch (C+): DEN, @KC, @ Buf to open the season. Actually it is a very nice schedule for most of the season but look what he faces in weeks 14 and 15, typically the opening of the playoffs in most leagues…@SD, NE, those two games sort of dampen my enthusiasm a bit. It’s the timing of those games more than anything. Would rather they played them in weeks 1 and 2.

Surround (D): JeMarcus might be good long term but he is not a top20 QB, not even top25 likely. Javon Walker wants to retire, Curry is not a WR1, other than the 2nd year TE Zach Miller, I don’t like a lot of the skill position players presently.

Intangibles (B): I like his skill set and think he will show some flashed of why people loved him coming out of college. The fact is though he doesn’t play on a high octane offense yet, and he will have a learning curve tog et over as he enters the NFL.

Overall (C+): A guy that is very interesting to take in PPR leagues on the 3/ 4 turn.

“C” tier
I have to disagree here.. I think that 15-18 touches a game would be around the max McFadden will see this year. I think he'll do well playing behind the Raiders good run blocking offensive line, but I don't see him garnering that many touches. He and Fargas should split carries this year with Michael Bush stealing goal line and short yardage carries. I suspect he'll see some where around 10-11 carries/game and 2-3 catches/game his rookie year. I don't think McFadden will ever be a 20+ carry/game back, and especially not with Fargas and Bush on the roster.
Thomas Jones (5.01)

Opp (C ): He is going to get a good amount of the carries, but I still see Washington gobbling up catches and potential touches. This could score out higher if he takes a more traditional role with Favre taking the snaps.

OL (B): You can’t grade them on the 3.8 ypc they amassed with Clemens/Pennington starting, and the addition of Alan Faneca cannot be undersold here. I think they will be much improved at running the football, and hopefully the addition of Brett Favre will

Help with the urn game even more.

Sch (C+): NE and SD in the 1st 3 weeks. After the week 5 bye there is nice a soft part where they will face CIN, @Oak, KC, @Buf, St L…should be some good games in there. Den, @SF, BUF, @Sea for the playoff stretch.

Surround (B): Favre is an upgrade at QB, plain and simple. Coles and COtchery are not flashy but I think they will be improved with Favre.

Intangibles (B): You have to love the addition of Brett Favre. Jones has some skills and look at what Favre has done with guys like Dorsey Levens, Ahman Green, Ryan Grant, it’s long and distinctive list.

Overall (C ): Jones is another guy I think you want on your radar on the 3/ 4 turn if you go WR/WR or WR/QB on the 1/ 2 turn.
The Jets went out and spent a lot of money to get Thomas Jones two years ago to help their running game. They fed him the ball a ton, but the blocking really stunk last year. So this off season they went out and spent a lot of money again to help improve their running game. I see no reason why they won't feed Jones the ball a ton again this year. Leon Washington is a great returner and a good receiver out of the backfield, but he is nothing more than a change of pace back. How many carries do you expect him to steal this year? I think Jones gets the bulk of the work, and should see an increase in TDs as the Jets offense is greatly improved.
Willie “no longer fast” Parker (4.05)

Opp (D): Think he might not get 300+ carries this season? I just see a split right down the middle for the Steeler backfield and I also don’t see Parker getting goal line touches exclusively either.

OL (B-): I’ll sum it up like this. I think the OL is going to be OK at run blocking, the challenge will be pass protection for them but that should not impact their run blocking skills.

Sch (C ): The regular season is OK, but starting in week 13, the money weeks, here is how the schedule shakes out…@NE, DAL, @Bal, @TN…not exactly easy by any stretch.

Surround (A): Big Ben, Ward, Miller, Holmes, Sweed, and others make up a superior skill position set around for Parker/Mendenhall.

Intangibles (D): Writing is on the wall, and I think Parker will lose a significant amount of carries to the rookie.

Overall (C ): Fairly short write up for Parker but I just don’t have much to say about him. I think it’s obvious his time as an RB1 getting 70% of the workload…just isn’t going to happen. Factor in an OL that lost Alan Faneca, and a tough schedule down the stretch, put that all together and I don’t like the end result too much. No way I am grabbing Parker in the late 3rd-middle 4th round.
While I don't see Willie Parker getting too many goal line carries, I think he still gets the bulk of the carries for the Steelers. He is still capable of breaking off long runs. Mendy is very talented, but I don't see him getting a 50/50 split with the proven vet. I also think the Steelers will run the ball enough so that Mendy won't have to steal too many of FWPs carries. A grade of D is just too low here IMO.
LenDale White (5.06)

Opp (C-): The presence of a 2nd RB will be felt. I believe he is in a split situation at best, and I doubt he will be getting many catches out of the backfield. Good thing is he shared a backfield with Reggie Bush in college so he can function even when he isn’t the primary back. I think some weeks White will be featured more than others.

OL (B-): They ran very well behind the LT Michael Roos last season…no wonder they paid that guy a big sum of money. Jake Scott will be the RG, and Amano/Harris will fight it out for the LG spot. Both starting Guards left or retired in the off season, but that’s OK because they needed to improve there anyways.

Sch (C ): JAX, MN, @Bal all before the week 6 bye. IND, GB, @Chi, @Jax in the 2nd half, playoffs are pretty alright with @Det, CLE, @Hou, and PIT to close things out…perhaps this schedule could be slightly higher.

Surround (D): Crumpler but not much else in the WR/TE stable to speak of. Young is not a great passing QB yet either.

Intangibles (C-): Chris Johnson is gaining on his touches day by day in camp. The OC came out and basically is trying to see how many carries a game he can give to Johnson, in other words he sounds like he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as much as possible…that doesn’t bode well for White.

Overall (D+): I don’t think he will be the guy that owners want as the season progresses.
The Titans had a 2nd back last year...Chris Brown. He proved to be a good change of pace to Lendale when he was healthy. I love Chris Johnson just as much as anyone, but I see him as nothing more than a change of pace back. He has awesome speed and they are going to want to use him in space so I think he will get a high number of receptions. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 receptions/game, but no more than 10 carries a game for the rookie. Lendale showed he could carry most of the load last year, and he wasn't even fully healthy. He should see around the same amount of work as last year... maybe a 10% decrease in carries. He will also see all the short yardage and goal line carries. Fischer is the type of coach who likes a RB to grind it out and wear a defense down.
Wonderful post, well thought out. Allow me to reply...McFadden: I don't see him standing on the sidelines very much, not after he was picked #4, and a HC that is on the hot seat, I think McFadden will be used a whole bunch, but I can see a possible tweak. If McFadden is too high for you, feel free to slip him down a tier. The "C" pool is pretty large and the difference between the two tiers is not night and day.

Thomas Jones: I defended Washington a few posts up so I am going to stick with it. I think Jones will get his fair share of carries but I don't see him carrying it 20 times every game. Washington will be in on a lot of the pass play IMO, but again this grade could be tweaked a bit higher as well, not sure that would move him up a tier. I did initially have Thomas Jones a bit higher before I finalized some of this.

The next 2 RBs you talked about have big time 1st round rookies looking over their shoulder. For example, while I like Tim Hightower, I don't believe he is any real threat to steal playing time from Edge...in other words it isn't an open competition. I believe Pitt and Tenn are both up for grabs. I do think White will get about 15 carries a game, and be in the game when they are winning and trying to wind down the clock. But the Titans need some playmakers, and Flash may be the only real threat they have, so I expect him to be involved a lot in the offense. If you pencil in White for 320+ carries with what we are watching unfold with Johnson, I can't come along with that POV.

And Parker is not going to get 300+ carries again this year...he has a real threat on that roster and if he isn't going to get goal line carries, I find the "D" grade to be very fitting. I don't project much but if Parker has 240 carries for 900-1,000 yds and doesn't hit paydirt much, what have you got? You got a hole in your starting line up is what you got.

Again, nice post.

 
The next 2 RBs you talked about have big time 1st round rookies looking over their shoulder. For example, while I like Tim Hightower, I don't believe he is any real threat to steal playing time from Edge...in other words it isn't an open competition. I believe Pitt and Tenn are both up for grabs. I do think White will get about 15 carries a game, and be in the game when they are winning and trying to wind down the clock. But the Titans need some playmakers, and Flash may be the only real threat they have, so I expect him to be involved a lot in the offense. If you pencil in White for 320+ carries with what we are watching unfold with Johnson, I can't come along with that POV. And Parker is not going to get 300+ carries again this year...he has a real threat on that roster and if he isn't going to get goal line carries, I find the "D" grade to be very fitting. I don't project much but if Parker has 240 carries for 900-1,000 yds and doesn't hit paydirt much, what have you got? You got a hole in your starting line up is what you got.Again, nice post.
Like I said earlier, I love Chris Johnson as much as anyone, but I don't see him stealing too many carries from White. I think hes too small to be given a huge workload. Plus, the coaching staff will want to use him more as a WR so they can get him in space. They wouldn't be utilizing him right if they just kept pounding him the ball. That being said, I think the pound the ball with White and give him all the short yardage and goal line carries, and use CJ as a change of pace and a WR. I think they both present good value this year in redraft leagues. CJ in PPR and Lendale in NON-PPR. I know you don't like projections, but here is how I have it broken down right now:Lendale White - 272/1088/8 20/100/0 Chris Johnson - 136/612/4 48 384/1As for Parker, I currently have him at 272/1115/5 25/179/1 and Mendy at 144/605/6 24/168/0. I see the Steelers easing Mendenhall into the lineup as the season starts. I think Parker will get the majority of the carries early on as Mendy learns how to pass protect and block. Mendy will be used at the goal line imo, but Parker should break off some TDs from outside the 10.More thoughts to come later....
 
The next 2 RBs you talked about have big time 1st round rookies looking over their shoulder. For example, while I like Tim Hightower, I don't believe he is any real threat to steal playing time from Edge...in other words it isn't an open competition. I believe Pitt and Tenn are both up for grabs. I do think White will get about 15 carries a game, and be in the game when they are winning and trying to wind down the clock. But the Titans need some playmakers, and Flash may be the only real threat they have, so I expect him to be involved a lot in the offense. If you pencil in White for 320+ carries with what we are watching unfold with Johnson, I can't come along with that POV.

And Parker is not going to get 300+ carries again this year...he has a real threat on that roster and if he isn't going to get goal line carries, I find the "D" grade to be very fitting. I don't project much but if Parker has 240 carries for 900-1,000 yds and doesn't hit paydirt much, what have you got? You got a hole in your starting line up is what you got.

Again, nice post.
Like I said earlier, I love Chris Johnson as much as anyone, but I don't see him stealing too many carries from White. I think hes too small to be given a huge workload. Plus, the coaching staff will want to use him more as a WR so they can get him in space. They wouldn't be utilizing him right if they just kept pounding him the ball. That being said, I think the pound the ball with White and give him all the short yardage and goal line carries, and use CJ as a change of pace and a WR. I think they both present good value this year in redraft leagues. CJ in PPR and Lendale in NON-PPR. I know you don't like projections, but here is how I have it broken down right now:Lendale White - 272/1088/8 20/100/0

Chris Johnson - 136/612/4 48 384/1

As for Parker, I currently have him at 272/1115/5 25/179/1 and Mendy at 144/605/6 24/168/0. I see the Steelers easing Mendenhall into the lineup as the season starts. I think Parker will get the majority of the carries early on as Mendy learns how to pass protect and block. Mendy will be used at the goal line imo, but Parker should break off some TDs from outside the 10.

More thoughts to come later....
Eerily similar to my projections for Johnson - 1,000 combined yardage, 4-6 TDs.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The next 2 RBs you talked about have big time 1st round rookies looking over their shoulder. For example, while I like Tim Hightower, I don't believe he is any real threat to steal playing time from Edge...in other words it isn't an open competition. I believe Pitt and Tenn are both up for grabs. I do think White will get about 15 carries a game, and be in the game when they are winning and trying to wind down the clock. But the Titans need some playmakers, and Flash may be the only real threat they have, so I expect him to be involved a lot in the offense. If you pencil in White for 320+ carries with what we are watching unfold with Johnson, I can't come along with that POV.

And Parker is not going to get 300+ carries again this year...he has a real threat on that roster and if he isn't going to get goal line carries, I find the "D" grade to be very fitting. I don't project much but if Parker has 240 carries for 900-1,000 yds and doesn't hit paydirt much, what have you got? You got a hole in your starting line up is what you got.

Again, nice post.
Like I said earlier, I love Chris Johnson as much as anyone, but I don't see him stealing too many carries from White. I think hes too small to be given a huge workload. Plus, the coaching staff will want to use him more as a WR so they can get him in space. They wouldn't be utilizing him right if they just kept pounding him the ball. That being said, I think the pound the ball with White and give him all the short yardage and goal line carries, and use CJ as a change of pace and a WR. I think they both present good value this year in redraft leagues. CJ in PPR and Lendale in NON-PPR. I know you don't like projections, but here is how I have it broken down right now:Lendale White - 272/1088/8 20/100/0

Chris Johnson - 136/612/4 48 384/1

As for Parker, I currently have him at 272/1115/5 25/179/1 and Mendy at 144/605/6 24/168/0. I see the Steelers easing Mendenhall into the lineup as the season starts. I think Parker will get the majority of the carries early on as Mendy learns how to pass protect and block. Mendy will be used at the goal line imo, but Parker should break off some TDs from outside the 10.

More thoughts to come later....
Eerily similar to my projections for White - 1,000 combined yardage, 4-6 TDs.
Why so low on White's TDs? :shrug:
 
MoP -

Do you have an ordered list of your RB rankings posted anywhere?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Well done.

Selvin Young, eh?
I agreeInteresting read; but Selving is way to high IMHO
Has anyone noticed that the Bronco run offense is just average these days? I'm not just talking about the running backs either. It had been a FF standard that the Bronco's system would churn out top RB performances regardless of who's back there. After watching them last year I don't think this is the case any more - the line isn't nearly as good as it used to be, and I think a lot of the system's success was attributable to Kubiak and staff rather than Shanahan. The numbers were still there (9th in rushing yards per game, tied for 3rd in ypc), but they didn't score much on the ground, and watching them I didn't see the same level of dominance I've been used to. In a strictly one to one comparison with other NFL RBs (not considering system, line, etc)I don't think any of the RBs on the Bronco's roster belong in the upper tiers - in fact I think they're below average. Combine that with an offensive line that seems average right now, the fact that they all have some injury history (and thus depth chart instability) and I can't find many reasons to fixate on Bronco RBs to the extent some people have so far this preseason. Rating Selvin Young as anything higher than a C is questionable in my opinion. For myself I'm staying away from the Bronco RBs unless they're a ridiculous bargain.

I do appreciate all the thought MOP puts into this stuff, and don't want this to seem like a general indictment of his effort, which is great as usual.

But to another nitpick, I think both Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are way underrated by MOP. They're in a great system in which they've proven they can both be very, very productive simultaneously yet we don't see either one until the C+ tier.

Oh yeah, Larry Johnson is getting underrated here too.
I think we will look back at our cheat sheets in a few months and wonder why we didn't see LJ as an OBVIOUS BUST!
 
Captain Spaulding said:
I think "intangibles" ranks about 70% and all of the other stuff is 30% at best.If you did this at the beginning of last year and tried to rank Julius Jones and MB111 with these criteria, you'd come up with basically the same tier for them, but clearly they have about 20 RB's in between them on the ranking sheets (maybe more) once 2007 ended).Opportunity - sameO-line - sameSurrounding talent - sameSchedule - samedifference is MB111 has better field vision, better moves, tougher to bring down, and the ability to find the endzone all better grading criteria than JJ and all of those would fall into "intangibles".Experience in the league and old age (when will the RB have the major decline hit..go from a top 10 ranking to useless the following season) are critical as well. Just more intangibles.
OK CS, but what about the fact that MB III got the goal line looks...doesn't that factor into Opportunity? I can severely cripple a rating on a RB by dropping the Opp form a "B" to a "D". I pretty much shot a hole thru Parker because I don't think he will sniff the ball a lot when they get close to the goal line...I might be in the minority but I have options with this system to weight the different categories. I am completely open minded in my approach though and if you all spot something that doesn't look right, please point it out. I put this together as much for myself over the next 3-4 weeks as I do for all of you. I learn a lot by reading what you all post back.
My recollection was that Jones got many looks at the goalline and rarely capitalized. Barber hit paydirt most of the time. After trends developed Dallas coaching adjusted the players usage and only starting using Jones between the 20's and Barber moreso in the redzone. I still really appreciate and like your findings, I just think the intangible items make up most of the RB ranking criteria and the items that you have listed, I feel, are more useful in making final decisions in choosing between 2 equally talented backs, particularly in choosing rookie RB's perhaps where you haven't seen their toughness, vision to see where to run, shake and bake abilities, knack for scoring TD's. To me those 4 factors mean the most in RB performance, more than speed, power, schedule strength, supporting cast, o-line etc..
 
I strongly disagree with you MOP on Reggie Bush. Strongly. I think that this is his year. Even with the Saints stumbling out of the block last year he was a very solid producer. I feel his catches will go down slightly but his rushing yards will increase as well his TD's. I look for him to have about 7-10 tds. From everything I have seen and read the Saints will open it up full throttle this year and Bush will be the beneficiary. Maybe I am crazy but I see Bush a top 5 back.

 
I strongly disagree with you MOP on Reggie Bush. Strongly. I think that this is his year. Even with the Saints stumbling out of the block last year he was a very solid producer. I feel his catches will go down slightly but his rushing yards will increase as well his TD's. I look for him to have about 7-10 tds. From everything I have seen and read the Saints will open it up full throttle this year and Bush will be the beneficiary. Maybe I am crazy but I see Bush a top 5 back.
You have spoken and been duly noted.
 
Thanks MOP for the great post and taking the time. Just wondering if you did one of these write-ups for 2007? I did a quick search and couldn't find anything from 2007, but found the one from 2006. Thanks, again!

 
Thanks MOP for the great post and taking the time. Just wondering if you did one of these write-ups for 2007? I did a quick search and couldn't find anything from 2007, but found the one from 2006. Thanks, again!
I have it, but it's on my computer...I couldn't find the '07 one either.
 
Tremendous write up. Easily the best I have seen this year in breaking down the RB situation.

That said, the only thing that I think could perhaps make it better would perhaps be a risk factor (which you kind of have in the intangibles but is certainly not a focus). I see a guy like Selvin Young for instance, who you have very high (justifiably by your system). He is certainly worth more than his ADP right now even with the risk, but is he worth a late first or even second round pick (which could certainly be argued based on your rating)? I think his risk and the general risk of the Broncos RB situation year to year says probably not.

I think the same argument could be made for a guy like Steven Jackson, at this particular moment if you were drafting today. Is the risk that he may miss a game or multiple games worth the risk at taking him at the 3rd or 4th pick? Maybe, but it certainly has to play a factor for someone like me.

Excellent post and I will absolutely be using it for my own purposes with a few minor tweaks. Thanks for putting so much time into this.

 
Tremendous write up. Easily the best I have seen this year in breaking down the RB situation.That said, the only thing that I think could perhaps make it better would perhaps be a risk factor (which you kind of have in the intangibles but is certainly not a focus). I see a guy like Selvin Young for instance, who you have very high (justifiably by your system). He is certainly worth more than his ADP right now even with the risk, but is he worth a late first or even second round pick (which could certainly be argued based on your rating)? I think his risk and the general risk of the Broncos RB situation year to year says probably not.I think the same argument could be made for a guy like Steven Jackson, at this particular moment if you were drafting today. Is the risk that he may miss a game or multiple games worth the risk at taking him at the 3rd or 4th pick? Maybe, but it certainly has to play a factor for someone like me. Excellent post and I will absolutely be using it for my own purposes with a few minor tweaks. Thanks for putting so much time into this.
I think you make a great point Skinner, and something I need to factor into future write ups. It was mentioned a few other spots as well. I take it constructively, glad you enjoyed the thread, appreciate the kind words.
 
The next 2 RBs you talked about have big time 1st round rookies looking over their shoulder. For example, while I like Tim Hightower, I don't believe he is any real threat to steal playing time from Edge...in other words it isn't an open competition. I believe Pitt and Tenn are both up for grabs. I do think White will get about 15 carries a game, and be in the game when they are winning and trying to wind down the clock. But the Titans need some playmakers, and Flash may be the only real threat they have, so I expect him to be involved a lot in the offense. If you pencil in White for 320+ carries with what we are watching unfold with Johnson, I can't come along with that POV.

And Parker is not going to get 300+ carries again this year...he has a real threat on that roster and if he isn't going to get goal line carries, I find the "D" grade to be very fitting. I don't project much but if Parker has 240 carries for 900-1,000 yds and doesn't hit paydirt much, what have you got? You got a hole in your starting line up is what you got.

Again, nice post.
Like I said earlier, I love Chris Johnson as much as anyone, but I don't see him stealing too many carries from White. I think hes too small to be given a huge workload. Plus, the coaching staff will want to use him more as a WR so they can get him in space. They wouldn't be utilizing him right if they just kept pounding him the ball. That being said, I think the pound the ball with White and give him all the short yardage and goal line carries, and use CJ as a change of pace and a WR. I think they both present good value this year in redraft leagues. CJ in PPR and Lendale in NON-PPR. I know you don't like projections, but here is how I have it broken down right now:Lendale White - 272/1088/8 20/100/0

Chris Johnson - 136/612/4 48 384/1

As for Parker, I currently have him at 272/1115/5 25/179/1 and Mendy at 144/605/6 24/168/0. I see the Steelers easing Mendenhall into the lineup as the season starts. I think Parker will get the majority of the carries early on as Mendy learns how to pass protect and block. Mendy will be used at the goal line imo, but Parker should break off some TDs from outside the 10.

More thoughts to come later....
Eerily similar to my projections for White Johnson - 1,000 combined yardage, 4-6 TDs.
Why so low on White's TDs? :goodposting:
Typing without thinking... I meant Johnson : we need a head slap icon :
 
The next 2 RBs you talked about have big time 1st round rookies looking over their shoulder. For example, while I like Tim Hightower, I don't believe he is any real threat to steal playing time from Edge...in other words it isn't an open competition. I believe Pitt and Tenn are both up for grabs. I do think White will get about 15 carries a game, and be in the game when they are winning and trying to wind down the clock. But the Titans need some playmakers, and Flash may be the only real threat they have, so I expect him to be involved a lot in the offense. If you pencil in White for 320+ carries with what we are watching unfold with Johnson, I can't come along with that POV.

And Parker is not going to get 300+ carries again this year...he has a real threat on that roster and if he isn't going to get goal line carries, I find the "D" grade to be very fitting. I don't project much but if Parker has 240 carries for 900-1,000 yds and doesn't hit paydirt much, what have you got? You got a hole in your starting line up is what you got.

Again, nice post.
Like I said earlier, I love Chris Johnson as much as anyone, but I don't see him stealing too many carries from White. I think hes too small to be given a huge workload. Plus, the coaching staff will want to use him more as a WR so they can get him in space. They wouldn't be utilizing him right if they just kept pounding him the ball. That being said, I think the pound the ball with White and give him all the short yardage and goal line carries, and use CJ as a change of pace and a WR. I think they both present good value this year in redraft leagues. CJ in PPR and Lendale in NON-PPR. I know you don't like projections, but here is how I have it broken down right now:Lendale White - 272/1088/8 20/100/0

Chris Johnson - 136/612/4 48 384/1

As for Parker, I currently have him at 272/1115/5 25/179/1 and Mendy at 144/605/6 24/168/0. I see the Steelers easing Mendenhall into the lineup as the season starts. I think Parker will get the majority of the carries early on as Mendy learns how to pass protect and block. Mendy will be used at the goal line imo, but Parker should break off some TDs from outside the 10.

More thoughts to come later....
Eerily similar to my projections for White Johnson - 1,000 combined yardage, 4-6 TDs.
Why so low on White's TDs? :confused:
Typing without thinking... I meant Johnson : we need a head slap icon :
You mean something like this? :doh: That one'll come in handy towards the end of the year for owners who drafted Selvin early.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Nice write up.

If you were to break down the "Supporting Cast" segment (which I guess consists of QB/WR) doesn't the QB have to account for a big chunk of that, and then the starting WR's almost all of the rest of it? I think that the receiving depth the Oilers had back in the Moon days may have positively impacted Lorenzo White, but I have a hard time with the idea that Jordy Nelson & James Jones ultimately do anything for Grant.

On a related unrelated note, I'm going to credit Nate Ravitz of all people (even though I felt the same way for a while but don't want to get accused of plagerizing) for pointing out that if you asked anyone a year ago to compare Driver/Jennings to Coles/Cotchery, you wouldn't have heard anything remotely close to the notion that somehow the Packer duo is significantly better. I'm not really sure why this is suddenly accepted as a no-brainer, which is one reason I really like T-Jones this year.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't post often but I wanted to let you know that I look forward to your articles every year.

I've been wondering about taking a chance on Edge during my current draft, since he's falling down the board, and I'll take him if he's still available. Thanks for the great work again this year, it's appreciated.

:thumbup:

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top