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2009 Sleepers & breakout players (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gbill2004
- Start date
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I don't view these guys as sleepers, many are household names by now. Olsen should have a monster year in Chicago.Palmer *could* have a bounce back year in Cincy,depending on his arm. Benson would benefit from playing with Palmer as opposed to Fitzpatrick(08)Bulger is waste of time, St Louis figures to be one of the 3 worst teams in football this season, which never bodes well for fantasy stats. Coles should produce solid #'s.breakout players would include V. Jackson, Felix Jones, Julius Jones if you belive in Knapp and Mora, Jr ( Jones had a nice ypc avg last season ( 4.4), so you never know!), A. Gonzalez, Steve Smith NYG ( if you believe he can be a #1 - I don't), Jason Campbell ( it's now or never), Shaub (a full season at last year's pace would put him in the top 5 QBs), Derrick Ward ( Graham is a bust, Ward is the starting RB in TB), Miles Austin
Londo
Footballguy
Sleeper is such a nebulous term these days, but here are a few guys I think will seriously outperform their ADP (in Parenthesis):
QB - Carson Palmer (75), Matt Hasselback (112)
RB - Larry Johnson (52), Tim Hightower (104)(chalk me up as a non-believer in Beanie), Ryan Grant (33), Willie Parker (62)
WR - Chad Ochocinqo (49), Braylon Edwards (45)
QB - Carson Palmer (75), Matt Hasselback (112)
RB - Larry Johnson (52), Tim Hightower (104)(chalk me up as a non-believer in Beanie), Ryan Grant (33), Willie Parker (62)
WR - Chad Ochocinqo (49), Braylon Edwards (45)
puckalicious
Footballguy
I'd much rather target these guys that have done it in the past but are undervalued due to bad seasons last year, instead of the unproven ones that might breakout. Except for Hightower, I think his ADP is spot on.pennystock
Footballguy
OK, I'll take a stab, following Londo's methodology (people who will outperform their ADP). Note these aren't in any particular order:
QBs
C. Palmer (75)
M. Schaub (68)
D. Garrard (115)
K. Orton (119)
T. Edwards (122)
RBs
D. McFadden (43)
R. Brown (28)
D. Ward (56)
WRs
M. Colston (27)
D. Jackson (61)
K. Walter (92)
D. Avery (86)
D. Driver (94)
D. Mason (103)
TEs
G. Olsen (79)
J. Carlson (103)
D. Keller (118)
T. Scheffler (143)
Just my opinion...
QBs
C. Palmer (75)
M. Schaub (68)
D. Garrard (115)
K. Orton (119)
T. Edwards (122)
RBs
D. McFadden (43)
R. Brown (28)
D. Ward (56)
WRs
M. Colston (27)
D. Jackson (61)
K. Walter (92)
D. Avery (86)
D. Driver (94)
D. Mason (103)
TEs
G. Olsen (79)
J. Carlson (103)
D. Keller (118)
T. Scheffler (143)
Just my opinion...
Cleat Spike
Footballguy
Graham is a bust? He was Top 10 in '07 and probaly on his way to Top 15 in '08. So he just rides off into the sunset this year?
RavensUNFL
Footballguy
Personally I do not think "bust" is the correct term for Graham because he was never expected to be good, but I think he is overrated and Ward will be the feature back. In mho
Sleepers to me would be:
Devin Hester
Chaz Schilens (not that I expect much from any Raider wr, I think he is the best of the bunch)
Bernard Berrian (if its Favre or Sage)
Josh Morgan
Miles Austin
Sleepers to me would be:
Devin Hester
Chaz Schilens (not that I expect much from any Raider wr, I think he is the best of the bunch)
Bernard Berrian (if its Favre or Sage)
Josh Morgan
Miles Austin
Deuce'sWild
Footballguy
I like this list. I have most of these guys highlighted on my cheatsheet. Their projected points vs their ADP is very favorable. I would add Westbrook to the RBs. It's just a hunch, but I think he finishes all 16 games this year and has the potential to be a top 5 RB that is being drafted at RB 12. This is the first year you can get him for that cheap, and it's risky but could pay off.Edit to add that you can add McCoy late (pick 108 adp) and I think he could fill in very nice for Westy should he go down.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
I agree with your 1st few statements about Palmer, Olsen, Benson, Coles, and Bulger, but you completely lost me when you mentioned VJax as a breakout WR. Isn't an 1100 7 season already brokeout?Also, how in the world is a guy, that went undrafted, cut his teeth on the PS, special teams, and whatever he had to do to keep a roster spot, who finally got an opportunity and took full advantage, considered a bust in your eyes? Same guy who volunteered to play FB so he could block for Warrick Dunn when Askew went down last year. What is your definition of bust? I usually consider there to have to be some expectations
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loose circuits
Footballguy
forgot to mention my sleeper and breakout:
sleeper: Chaz Schilens
breakout: Steve Smith (NYG)
sleeper: Chaz Schilens
breakout: Steve Smith (NYG)
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Harrison RB CLE
I think he will get a lot of 3rd down looks, a decent number of carries even if he is not the starter and be useful as a byeweek fill-in at a minimum;
I think he will get a lot of 3rd down looks, a decent number of carries even if he is not the starter and be useful as a byeweek fill-in at a minimum;
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
13th round or later picks that I think will do wat better than that . . .
145 Sammy Morris RB 53
I still think he will be the leading RB scorer fantasy wise on the Pats.
147 Hakeem Nicks WR 49 139 117 156 170 196
Someone on the G-Men should be fantasy start worthy. I'm guessing Nicks, but that's not based on a lot of research and is mostly a guess.
150 San Diego Chargers TD 10
I see them as better than the 10th best defense.
162 Bo Scaife TE 17
His role and numbers have increased every year so far.
166 Brian Robiskie WR 58
Some people see him seeing a ton of targets and with a lot of short receptions. Probably a PPR candidate.
171 Earl Bennett WR 60
With Cutler around, if the Bears are going to pass like some people are saying, WR60 is too low.
175 Nate Burleson WR 62
I have little faith in Branch staying healthy (not like Burleson is a pillar of health), but he ranked 27th in SEA 2 years ago.
176 Brent Celek TE 19
LJ Smith was a fantasy starter and Celek came on at the end of the year. May not be great, but may approach starting worthy fantasy wise.
177 Shaun Hill QB 24
His fantasy numbers when he's played have been quite good.
189 Mark Bradley WR 65
Bowe was third in the league in targets. I suspect Bradley will see more of those with Tony G. gone than Bowe.
198 Greg Camarillo WR 68
Recovery is going faster than expected and should see a lot of passes his way.
202 Kevin Faulk RB 59
While I like Morris better, Faulk should be in the RB30s or 40s.
203 Garrett Hartley PK 11
No kicker from that high octane and offense should be the 11th PK off the board.
209 Mike Walker WR 73
Should be starting opposite hold and has the skills . . . if he can stay on the field.
228 James Jones WR 76
Was relevant 2 seasons ago and became somewhat invisible. Driver has to slow down soon.
242 Antwaan Randle El WR 80
I hardly ever see this guy drafted, but he's ranked in the Top 60 6 times.
245 Bryant Johnson WR 82
Second receiver on a team that will be behind all day long. May not be great, but should be better than 82nd.
247 Greg Jones RB 73
I'm guessing he gets some goal line work to make him at least on the fantasy radar.
250+ Greg Lewis WR
I see Galloway being mostly a disappointment and Lewis putting up Gaffney like numbers (say WR 60).
145 Sammy Morris RB 53
I still think he will be the leading RB scorer fantasy wise on the Pats.
147 Hakeem Nicks WR 49 139 117 156 170 196
Someone on the G-Men should be fantasy start worthy. I'm guessing Nicks, but that's not based on a lot of research and is mostly a guess.
150 San Diego Chargers TD 10
I see them as better than the 10th best defense.
162 Bo Scaife TE 17
His role and numbers have increased every year so far.
166 Brian Robiskie WR 58
Some people see him seeing a ton of targets and with a lot of short receptions. Probably a PPR candidate.
171 Earl Bennett WR 60
With Cutler around, if the Bears are going to pass like some people are saying, WR60 is too low.
175 Nate Burleson WR 62
I have little faith in Branch staying healthy (not like Burleson is a pillar of health), but he ranked 27th in SEA 2 years ago.
176 Brent Celek TE 19
LJ Smith was a fantasy starter and Celek came on at the end of the year. May not be great, but may approach starting worthy fantasy wise.
177 Shaun Hill QB 24
His fantasy numbers when he's played have been quite good.
189 Mark Bradley WR 65
Bowe was third in the league in targets. I suspect Bradley will see more of those with Tony G. gone than Bowe.
198 Greg Camarillo WR 68
Recovery is going faster than expected and should see a lot of passes his way.
202 Kevin Faulk RB 59
While I like Morris better, Faulk should be in the RB30s or 40s.
203 Garrett Hartley PK 11
No kicker from that high octane and offense should be the 11th PK off the board.
209 Mike Walker WR 73
Should be starting opposite hold and has the skills . . . if he can stay on the field.
228 James Jones WR 76
Was relevant 2 seasons ago and became somewhat invisible. Driver has to slow down soon.
242 Antwaan Randle El WR 80
I hardly ever see this guy drafted, but he's ranked in the Top 60 6 times.
245 Bryant Johnson WR 82
Second receiver on a team that will be behind all day long. May not be great, but should be better than 82nd.
247 Greg Jones RB 73
I'm guessing he gets some goal line work to make him at least on the fantasy radar.
250+ Greg Lewis WR
I see Galloway being mostly a disappointment and Lewis putting up Gaffney like numbers (say WR 60).
pennystock
Footballguy
Thx Deuce's. I didn't even notice Westbrook's ADP of 16, I agree that looks like a bargain considering his talent...even assuming he misses a couple of games, I would be happy to get him at that spot.Deuce said:
Really like those two guys at their ADP's.I'd add to other 2nd year players:Felix Jones(68)DeSean Jackson(65)If the ADP's hold, I have a feeling all 4 of those guys will end up on any team I own.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Douglas is a slot guy. Jenkins blocking will keep him on the outside. I actually expect Douglas to slump this year given that they can split Tony G out.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
TJ Duckett and J Jones might end up a lot like L Hoard & R Smith back in the day. ADP wise, I think Duckett will way over achieve. And if Jones misses time...
Hass must be past the back problems and play well, but Duckett could turn into a decent flex/fill in option if he's getting 10+ touches/game, and most of the scoring opps.
Disclosure: drafted in the 16th round of a recent dynasty startup and I'm sure his ADP is way low.
Hass must be past the back problems and play well, but Duckett could turn into a decent flex/fill in option if he's getting 10+ touches/game, and most of the scoring opps.
Disclosure: drafted in the 16th round of a recent dynasty startup and I'm sure his ADP is way low.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Guys I'm looking at considering their current ADP...
Felix Jones- could be #1 RB for the Pokes
Camarillo- PPR poor man's Welker
Ochonacho- Easily a high #2WR at a WR3 cost
Jamal Lewis- Better D, better O= better year for a 6th rounder with 4th round potential.
Addai- 1st Rd.er last year going in the 5th thids year and the whole team is better around him.
Felix Jones- could be #1 RB for the Pokes
Camarillo- PPR poor man's Welker
Ochonacho- Easily a high #2WR at a WR3 cost
Jamal Lewis- Better D, better O= better year for a 6th rounder with 4th round potential.
Addai- 1st Rd.er last year going in the 5th thids year and the whole team is better around him.
3nOut
Footballguy
Not necessarily true. Calvin Johnson, Bowe, and MJD all had good FF stats last year playing on team that were 0-16, 2-14, and 5-11, respectively.
•TheRealMcCoy
Footballguy
Why does Avery seem to be the next Lee Evans in my mind? Big plays.....but sporatic statsAvery!!!
I have that exact same feeling, only I don't think Avery is as talented as Evans.tdmills said:Why does Avery seem to be the next Lee Evans in my mind? Big plays.....but sporatic stats•TheRealMcCoy said:Avery!!!
Maroney-11th round ADP, talented 24 year old competing with 32 and 33 year olds for playing time, on a team that is good at running the football. If he can stay healthy the Pats will likely use him as they always have giving him about 13 carries/game. Give him his career Y/R with a handful of touchdowns and you have 800-900 yard back with 4-7 TDs. I see no downside here.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Other than he's currently fourth string and returning kicks nothing.I do agree that at his current acquisition costs he's worth a flyer, but I would not hold out hope that he will be a regular fantasy contributor.I still think Morris will have the most fantasy points for the Pats RBs this year.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I think that Ryan and TGonz will be the beneficiaries fantasy wise.Some of Jenkins and Douglas #s will go to TGonz.
bcr8f
Footballguy
It will be interesting to see how Tony is used. I really like that offense this season.
FUBAR
Footballguy
barring a bad sophomore slump by Ryan, Atlanta could be one of the best offenses in the NFL this year. They seriously should challenge for the 1 seed.gonzobill5
Footballguy
The #1 seed in the NFC? Because they added a TE? They play the NFC East and the AFC East this year (the two strongest divisions) instead of the NFC North and the AFC West (two of the weakest divisions). I could see them struggling to win 8 games this year.barring a bad sophomore slump by Ryan, Atlanta could be one of the best offenses in the NFL this year. They seriously should challenge for the 1 seed.
Tau837
Footballguy
The difference between last year's non-division schedule and this year's non-division schedule is night and day... much harder this year.
FUBAR
Footballguy
[hijack]not just any TE, arguably the best TE ever to play in the NFL. Their D should be better as well. Hear me now, believe me later, the Falcons are a team on the rise that will soon be past the Vick saga. [/hijack]
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I'd argue that the AFC South is stronger than the East.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I don't think anyone has really listed sleepers (a couple of you have) but when I see names like McFadden and Reggie Bush I have to
Here is my list of SLEEPERS
QB Chris Simms
QB Mathew Stafford
RB Justin Forsett
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Chris Henry
WR Robert Meachem
WR Patrick Crayton
TE Martin Rucker
TE Chase Coffman
Here is my list of SLEEPERS
QB Chris Simms
QB Mathew Stafford
RB Justin Forsett
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Chris Henry
WR Robert Meachem
WR Patrick Crayton
TE Martin Rucker
TE Chase Coffman
I think the AFC South is the best division in football, even better than the NFC East. I'm confident that the two super bowl teams will come out of these two divisions.Looking at the schedule, I kind of think all AFC South players may be undervalued, its almost unfair that players the caliber of Manning, MJD, CJ3, AJ, Wayne and Clark draw the NFC West.Starting to really like Stafford, I think I could live with him as my QB2, assuming he beats out Daunte which sounds likely.I don't think anyone has really listed sleepers (a couple of you have) but when I see names like McFadden and Reggie Bush I have to
Here is my list of SLEEPERS
QB Chris Simms
QB Mathew Stafford
RB Justin Forsett
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Chris Henry
WR Robert Meachem
WR Patrick Crayton
TE Martin Rucker
TE Chase Coffman
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I think Dante will start probably around the first 6-8 games and then I think Stafford will get his shot. Anyone throwing to Calvin will put up good stats in the fantasy world.Starting to really like Stafford, I think I could live with him as my QB2, assuming he beats out Daunte which sounds likely.I don't think anyone has really listed sleepers (a couple of you have) but when I see names like McFadden and Reggie Bush I have to
Here is my list of SLEEPERS
QB Chris Simms
QB Mathew Stafford
RB Justin Forsett
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Chris Henry
WR Robert Meachem
WR Patrick Crayton
TE Martin Rucker
TE Chase Coffman
4th on the depth chart...ok. But why is returning kicks looked down upon? Welker returns punts. Many playmakers around the league are used this way if only to get the ball in their hands. Who is the most talented RB on the roster? Maroney is the easy answer, so "IF" he can stay healthy moving up the depth chart to get his normal touches/game should be expected. I'm not saying he will become the workhorse for the Pats because if any other back is dressed they will see carries as well, but returning to his workload of approximately 13 carries/game is not a reach considering the other RBs ages and injury histories.
MAC_32
Footballguy
QB
Brady Quinn (Robiskie's pro ready, Braylon bounces back, game manager style may limit upside)
Shaun Hill (look at his PPG in 2008, then they went and added Crabtree and Brandon Jones - crappy player but bloated salary suggests an investment in the passing game was desired)
WR
Donnie Avery (very raw entering league and made some big plays, an improved o line and another year of seasoning could lead to something big)
Chris Henry (if his head's screwed on straight - finally - he's the most talented WR on a pass-heavy team, double digit TD potential available late)
Brian Robiskie (the possession WR the Browns sorely missed in 2008 that I believe will benefit from single coverage in the red zone with Braylon seeing constant double teams, Winslow's looks have to go somewhere...)
RB
Felix Jones (if he gets the touches...)
Darren Sproles (see, Felix)
Michael Bush (good run blocking o line, two quality RB's that compliment each other well, awful...AWFUL passing attack should limit upside but should increase touch %)
TE
Dustin Keller (most talented pass catcher on the team imho, came into his own in the 2nd half)
Martellus Bennett (immense talent that put it together faster than many expected, still has Witten to contend with but I think Dallas relies heavier on 2 TE sets than the past)
Brady Quinn (Robiskie's pro ready, Braylon bounces back, game manager style may limit upside)
Shaun Hill (look at his PPG in 2008, then they went and added Crabtree and Brandon Jones - crappy player but bloated salary suggests an investment in the passing game was desired)
WR
Donnie Avery (very raw entering league and made some big plays, an improved o line and another year of seasoning could lead to something big)
Chris Henry (if his head's screwed on straight - finally - he's the most talented WR on a pass-heavy team, double digit TD potential available late)
Brian Robiskie (the possession WR the Browns sorely missed in 2008 that I believe will benefit from single coverage in the red zone with Braylon seeing constant double teams, Winslow's looks have to go somewhere...)
RB
Felix Jones (if he gets the touches...)
Darren Sproles (see, Felix)
Michael Bush (good run blocking o line, two quality RB's that compliment each other well, awful...AWFUL passing attack should limit upside but should increase touch %)
TE
Dustin Keller (most talented pass catcher on the team imho, came into his own in the 2nd half)
Martellus Bennett (immense talent that put it together faster than many expected, still has Witten to contend with but I think Dallas relies heavier on 2 TE sets than the past)
bcr8f
Footballguy
Not fan of Simms or Meachem especially paying Devery Henderson all that $$$ but like Stafford, Harrison and Henry.I don't think anyone has really listed sleepers (a couple of you have) but when I see names like McFadden and Reggie Bush I have toHere is my list of SLEEPERSQB Chris SimmsQB Mathew StaffordRB Justin ForsettRB Jerome HarrisonWR Chris HenryWR Robert MeachemWR Patrick CraytonTE Martin RuckerTE Chase Coffman
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Most guys that get the ball a lot on offense do not return kicks . . . especially at running back. There are a few exceptions, most notably in New Orleans (both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas returned kicks last year), but generally speaking big cogs running the football don't usually return kicks.As for Maroney, saying that Maroney is "the most talented RB on the roster" has not played out in the statatistics.YPC over the past 3 years in New England:Kevin Faulk 5.26 Sammy Morris 4.61 LaMont Jordan 4.54 Laurence Maroney 4.31 (Fred Taylor in JAX 4.86)Touches per TD over the past 3 years in New England:Ben Jarvis Green Ellis 15.4Corey Dillon 16.3Kyle Eckel 17.0LaMont Jordan 20.0Heath Evans 21.5Sammy Morris 26.4Kevin Faulk 31.8Lawrence Maroney 31.8(Fred Taylor in JAX 53.8)As far as what to expect heading into this season, NE will be going full RBBC and they are not even trying to pretend that they are not.Faulk in on passing and third downsTaylor in first and second downs between the 20sMorris short yardage plays and GL with some series as first and second down backMaroney sharing time with Taylor on first and second downsFrom what I have heard, each week will start with a similar plan and the guy that performs the best will be given more work in the second half. One possibility is that each back gets a series (Taylor, then Morris, then Maroney). But it is unlikely that any one of these guys will get more than 10-12 carries on a regular basis.I won't review all of Maroney's shortcomings again, but long story short he may be a decent RB that just does not fit the Patriots system. He may be worth a flyer on, but I don't see him emerging into a big fantasy producer of a guy that sees the ball very much. He does not play very often on passing downs (which in NE is quite a bit) and won't see many GL looks. So fantasy wise, you are basically looking at 10-12 carries a game with limited receptions and limited TD opportunities. His value would come if the other guys got hurt (which certainly could happen), but IMO Maroney is as much an injury risk (if not more) than the other guys on the roster (even if they are much older).With Brady back, this is still a passing team that also runs fairly well. But this should turn out to be a situation where 4 or 5 backs all end up splitting the workload and there likely will not be a guy that gets many touches. We again may see the team leader in touches at 175 on the season. If that were to be Maroney, that could equate to 700 yards from scrimmage and 4 TD. I'm not sure that carries a lot of fantasy value.As I said earlier, Maroney may be worth a flyer on the chance that the other guys all get hurt with his role increasing as a result, but at this point I am pretty sure the team does not see him as the lead dog and likely does not plan on giving him the same workload as they have in the past.
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
sehorn!
simmonjm
Footballguy
Not to hijack but Colts < EaglesTitans < GiantsTexans < CowboysJags = or < RedskinsI think the AFC South is the best division in football, even better than the NFC East. I'm confident that the two super bowl teams will come out of these two divisions.Looking at the schedule, I kind of think all AFC South players may be undervalued, its almost unfair that players the caliber of Manning, MJD, CJ3, AJ, Wayne and Clark draw the NFC West.
facook
Footballguy
Interesting on Westbrook. I've got him on my radar as well, but have considered grabbing him a little earlier - say 2.1 or 2.2. I don't know that I can pull the trigger and take him ahead of one of the big 4 WRs, but it's tempting. I guess it would come down to IF I could get him at 16 overall or later, I would, otherwise if I have a later pick I'm probably passing on him and hoping Pierre Thomas or Ronnie Brown in the 3rd will be very close to his production and better value.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
simmonjm said:Not to hijack but Colts < EaglesTitans < GiantsTexans < CowboysJags = or < Redskinstravdogg said:pizzatyme said:
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Adrian Aarington
Earl Bennett
Brandon Jackson
Jared Cook
Earl Bennett
Brandon Jackson
Jared Cook
ierre Garcon
WampusCat43
Footballguy
All these Bengals on here (except the tight end - quick! Name him), and me playing in a league in Cincinnati.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Chase Coffman and what are you talkin about?
