2009 Sleepers & breakout players (1 Viewer)

[biggamer3]

Am i the only one who is high on Earl Bennett and Donnie Avery this year?

Avery is injured but by all indications he should be ready for week 1

 

[smackdaddies]

jermichael finley - top 10 TE this year

and for those in leagues with deep rosters or just have to take a flyer on your last pick

...Travis Beckum

Haven't heard much about Finley. I would be interested in hearing some reasoning behind it.

There is already a thread on him. Use the search function.

Found it. Thanks.

Headline in Today's online paper after the GB-Browns preseason GameSterling exhibition for Finley, Packers

Tight end Jermichael Finley looks as if he's going to be the biggest difference in the Green Bay Packers' offense this season. That might be a bold statement to make after two weeks of practice and one exhibition game: a 17-0 victory over the Browns Saturday night.

 

[Menace]

Roy Williams is my pick for breakout player of the year. His situation kinda in a way reminds me of R.Moss's (not saying they are the same caliber), everyone was down on Moss when he first went to N.E. from Oak. People said that he lost a step, that he was overrated, and that Brady spread the ball around too much, blah, blah, blah. I know in my league, Moss went in the fourth round that year, causing everyone else that yr. to bang their heads on their tv sets as Moss raked in the TD's. Now is Williams going to have a Moss like season, probably not, but I think alot of people are going to be mad at themselves for letting him slip by. Williams always had a lot of talent and now he is going to a much better team that is going to air it out.

 

[David Yudkin]

Roy Williams is my pick for breakout player of the year. His situation kinda in a way reminds me of R.Moss's (not saying they are the same caliber), everyone was down on Moss when he first went to N.E. from Oak. People said that he lost a step, that he was overrated, and that Brady spread the ball around too much, blah, blah, blah. I know in my league, Moss went in the fourth round that year, causing everyone else that yr. to bang their heads on their tv sets as Moss raked in the TD's. Now is Williams going to have a Moss like season, probably not, but I think alot of people are going to be mad at themselves for letting him slip by. Williams always had a lot of talent and now he is going to a much better team that is going to air it out.

Hmmm . . .Williams had one great year and a few other decent ones per game wise playing in Detroit that threw 600 times and had the lowest rushing totals in the league in that year. The Cowboys have three decent backs and I see them running more and passing less with T.O. out of the mix and having a more balanced offense like they did in 2006.In 10 games in Dallas last season, Williams averaged under 20 yards a game. Yes, I understand he got thrown to the wolves, but he really didn't click at all last year.

 

[Brehh]

Deep Sleeper for me is Josh Cribbs

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Chaz Schillens

Vishante Shiancoe..had 7 TDs last year btw..

Chris Cooley...No way he repeats his crappy TD total from last season

Shonn Greene



Miles Austin?? Or Crayton?? Sam Hurd

Fixed

I thought the same, but then I keep reverting back to Zorn not having the TE as a part of the red zone plan. He went from 19 targets within the 20 (with 6 TDs) down to 9 targets and 1 TD. From within the 10 he went from 7 targets and 2 TDs down to 1 target within the 10!!!!! I have seen nothing (wish I would) to make me believe that Zorn is planning to change this ...if you have please link me. I like this guy Cooley and he is a better player than Zorn is allowing.

 

[PatytonsGhost]

Am i the only one who is high on Earl Bennett and Donnie Avery this year?Avery is injured but by all indications he should be ready for week 1

I like Earl to but I think people are overprojecting as to what hes going to do. As far as Avery I like him to but the WR-QB is not off to a good startBulger finger fracture + Avery's foot fracture = slow start to seasonadd to it that Bulger's backup QB is Kyle Boller, does't really add anything to Avery's value either if Bulger is replaced, which is possible. Some of my sleepers and breakout players areDerrick Ward breakoutFelix Jones breakoutDomenik Hixon Eli has to throw to someoneBernard Scott Cedric will eventually fade awayBess or Ginn Jr. One of these guys is gonna blow it up in MiamiChris Henry -i think if his mind is thereDwayne Jarret - i think if his mind is there

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Roy Williams is my pick for breakout player of the year. His situation kinda in a way reminds me of R.Moss's (not saying they are the same caliber), everyone was down on Moss when he first went to N.E. from Oak. People said that he lost a step, that he was overrated, and that Brady spread the ball around too much, blah, blah, blah. I know in my league, Moss went in the fourth round that year, causing everyone else that yr. to bang their heads on their tv sets as Moss raked in the TD's. Now is Williams going to have a Moss like season, probably not, but I think alot of people are going to be mad at themselves for letting him slip by. Williams always had a lot of talent and now he is going to a much better team that is going to air it out.

He's going to the Pats?

 

[Knobs]

Great sleepers in here.

 

[Tau837]

Justin Gage-Was a top-15 WR last year on a per start basis.

Would you mind clarifying this statement?

I was off by a few spots. He was actually 18th on a per start basis. He started 11 games. In those 11 games, he averaged more PPG than Berrian, Bowe, Royal and Welker.

Gage ranked 25th in ppg in 0 PPR leagues in the 12 games he played. IMO, the other game whether he started or didn't start is a case of semantics.Compared to the guys you mentioned ppg wise across the entire season, Berrian 20thBowe 21stRoyal 18thWelker 24thThings have changed some in TEN though, as Washington was added and they drafted Britt and Cook. That could impact Gage's numbers . . .

I have Gage on my dynasty team, and I'm surprised at the optimism about him in this thread and around FBG in general. He played 12 regular season games last season. Consider (FBG scoring):He had 26.7 of his 101.3 fantasy points in 1 game. That's 26.4% of his points in 1 game. How many owners started him that week?He had only 4 games in double figures. Meanwhile, he had 5 games with 4 or fewer points.Maybe he's not that unlike other non elite WRs, but I found him a bit frustrating.

 

[biggamer3]

David Clowney should be a top sleeper for where he is going

 

[Patoons]

David Clowney should be a top sleeper for where he is going

There are a lot of people jumping on this bandwagon, but remember that Clowney hasn't played against the #1 defense yet and is just this week seeing time with the #1s. All his production in the preseason has been against 2nd and 3rd string defenders. This Saturday will be a huge test for him. He's a one trick pony (vertical threat solely) and I don't think he'll win the #2 because of it.

 

[gregjcross]

David Clowney should be a top sleeper for where he is going

There are a lot of people jumping on this bandwagon, but remember that Clowney hasn't played against the #1 defense yet and is just this week seeing time with the #1s. All his production in the preseason has been against 2nd and 3rd string defenders. This Saturday will be a huge test for him. He's a one trick pony (vertical threat solely) and I don't think he'll win the #2 because of it.

My only thing is, its possible that Chancey Stuckey and Brad Smith are 0 trick ponies. If Sanchez has great touch on the deep ball, maybe Clowney has some true value as a WR 3/4 in fantasy. Stuckey has a lot of intrigue but he cannot seem to get over the hump.

 

[Patoons]

David Clowney should be a top sleeper for where he is going

There are a lot of people jumping on this bandwagon, but remember that Clowney hasn't played against the #1 defense yet and is just this week seeing time with the #1s. All his production in the preseason has been against 2nd and 3rd string defenders. This Saturday will be a huge test for him. He's a one trick pony (vertical threat solely) and I don't think he'll win the #2 because of it.

My only thing is, its possible that Chancey Stuckey and Brad Smith are 0 trick ponies. If Sanchez has great touch on the deep ball, maybe Clowney has some true value as a WR 3/4 in fantasy. Stuckey has a lot of intrigue but he cannot seem to get over the hump.

Brad Smith, I agree. Stuckey's talented. Not sure why he hasn't gotten over the hump? The Jets #1 offense has struggled so far - no one's producing this preseason. Cotchery hasn't produced either. If Stuckey were playing with the #2/#3 offense, we'd be seeing quite a bit of production. He's not getting those reps; he's only getting time with the first string and I think that speaks volumes.The lack of production for the #1 offense is largely attributable to not having a consistent QB to gel with throughout camp. With Sanchez being named starter, that should only help in building chemistry.The game against the Giants is going to be huge for Clowney to see what he's capable of.

 

[two_dollars]

interesting to look back on this..

 

[brett5673]

interesting to look back on this..

I have to say a lot wrong. Really only Schaub and Celek seemed to be the most heard of that really did break out. Some mention of Austin and Rice but mainly the other two guys really panned out

 

[Carver]

13th round or later picks that I think will do wat better than that . . .145 Sammy Morris RB 53I still think he will be the leading RB scorer fantasy wise on the Pats.147 Hakeem Nicks WR 49 139 117 156 170 196 Someone on the G-Men should be fantasy start worthy. I'm guessing Nicks, but that's not based on a lot of research and is mostly a guess.150 San Diego Chargers TD 10I see them as better than the 10th best defense.162 Bo Scaife TE 17His role and numbers have increased every year so far.166 Brian Robiskie WR 58Some people see him seeing a ton of targets and with a lot of short receptions. Probably a PPR candidate.171 Earl Bennett WR 60With Cutler around, if the Bears are going to pass like some people are saying, WR60 is too low.175 Nate Burleson WR 62I have little faith in Branch staying healthy (not like Burleson is a pillar of health), but he ranked 27th in SEA 2 years ago. 176 Brent Celek TE 19LJ Smith was a fantasy starter and Celek came on at the end of the year. May not be great, but may approach starting worthy fantasy wise.177 Shaun Hill QB 24His fantasy numbers when he's played have been quite good.189 Mark Bradley WR 65Bowe was third in the league in targets. I suspect Bradley will see more of those with Tony G. gone than Bowe.198 Greg Camarillo WR 68 Recovery is going faster than expected and should see a lot of passes his way.202 Kevin Faulk RB 59While I like Morris better, Faulk should be in the RB30s or 40s.203 Garrett Hartley PK 11No kicker from that high octane and offense should be the 11th PK off the board.209 Mike Walker WR 73Should be starting opposite hold and has the skills . . . if he can stay on the field.228 James Jones WR 76Was relevant 2 seasons ago and became somewhat invisible. Driver has to slow down soon.242 Antwaan Randle El WR 80I hardly ever see this guy drafted, but he's ranked in the Top 60 6 times.245 Bryant Johnson WR 82Second receiver on a team that will be behind all day long. May not be great, but should be better than 82nd.247 Greg Jones RB 73I'm guessing he gets some goal line work to make him at least on the fantasy radar.250+ Greg Lewis WRI see Galloway being mostly a disappointment and Lewis putting up Gaffney like numbers (say WR 60).

Wow Yudk. :shiver:

 

[Carver]

Anyone throw Kevin Boss out there yet? he is in store for big things this season. Tremendous late round value.

For me.

 

[Instinctive]

Chaz Schillens



Miles Austin Sam Hurd

Fixed

That one has to hurt...

 

[3nOut]

interesting to look back on this..

Interesting how many of these sleepers forgot to set their alarm clocks...

 

[az_prof]

Looking at this list below doesn't mean the post or thread were horrible; it just points out that sleepers and breakout players are just that--a shot for the fence. Most sleepers will never produce for your fantasy team.

Of that list, only a couple produced at all. Nicks was dead on--he did breakout. Earl Bennett WAS better than WR60, but he still didn't help anyone win. Nate Burleson was a breakout player, at least for part of 2009. Celek is now a clear top 10 TE. Mike Walker is a good WR3 now. Is that a good hit rate for 13-18th round picks? I would say so. Most of your picks after round 10 are more likely to end up on the waiver wire than your starting line up.

The key is being aware of players that might emerge and then monitoring their preseasons and their situations to see if they may get a chance to start so you are ready to pounce on them if the odds start to look positive for them.

"13th round or later picks that I think will do wat better than that . . .

145 Sammy Morris RB 53

I still think he will be the leading RB scorer fantasy wise on the Pats.

147 Hakeem Nicks WR 49 139 117 156 170 196

Someone on the G-Men should be fantasy start worthy. I'm guessing Nicks, but that's not based on a lot of research and is mostly a guess.

150 San Diego Chargers TD 10

I see them as better than the 10th best defense.

162 Bo Scaife TE 17

His role and numbers have increased every year so far.

166 Brian Robiskie WR 58

Some people see him seeing a ton of targets and with a lot of short receptions. Probably a PPR candidate.

171 Earl Bennett WR 60

With Cutler around, if the Bears are going to pass like some people are saying, WR60 is too low.

175 Nate Burleson WR 62

I have little faith in Branch staying healthy (not like Burleson is a pillar of health), but he ranked 27th in SEA 2 years ago.

176 Brent Celek TE 19

LJ Smith was a fantasy starter and Celek came on at the end of the year. May not be great, but may approach starting worthy fantasy wise.

177 Shaun Hill QB 24

His fantasy numbers when he's played have been quite good.

189 Mark Bradley WR 65

Bowe was third in the league in targets. I suspect Bradley will see more of those with Tony G. gone than Bowe.

198 Greg Camarillo WR 68

Recovery is going faster than expected and should see a lot of passes his way.

202 Kevin Faulk RB 59

While I like Morris better, Faulk should be in the RB30s or 40s.

203 Garrett Hartley PK 11

No kicker from that high octane and offense should be the 11th PK off the board.

209 Mike Walker WR 73

Should be starting opposite hold and has the skills . . . if he can stay on the field.

228 James Jones WR 76

Was relevant 2 seasons ago and became somewhat invisible. Driver has to slow down soon.

242 Antwaan Randle El WR 80

I hardly ever see this guy drafted, but he's ranked in the Top 60 6 times.

245 Bryant Johnson WR 82

Second receiver on a team that will be behind all day long. May not be great, but should be better than 82nd.

247 Greg Jones RB 73

I'm guessing he gets some goal line work to make him at least on the fantasy radar.

250+ Greg Lewis WR

I see Galloway being mostly a disappointment and Lewis putting up Gaffney like numbers (say WR 60)."