CalBear
Footballguy
OK, time to once again analyze this year's train wreck. Where did I go wrong? Well, in the early rounds there's a lot of luck; often none of the players you'd plausibly consider at some spot actually wound up doing well, and you should have taken a guy whose ADP was a round later. And of course I got hosed by injuries. But let's look at the player evaluation to see if there's anything to learn...
1.10 Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)
In previous years I would have gone for Gonzo here, but even as a Cal homer I can’t really justify it with Fitzgerald still on the board. Fitz only fell this far because he lost Warner, but even with Leinart at QB you’re looking at one of the top two or three WRs in the league in a situation where he’s likely to get 150 targets. The overall Cardinals offense is going to take a hit this year, but Fitz should still be studly.
Plus, there’s a decent chance I’ll be able to get Gonzo at my second pick; the QB-picking chumps are getting going, and this year we might see Witten, Davis, and Finley go before Gonzo.
Well, this didn't turn out to be a complete disaster; Fitzgerald finished as WR#11. But the pick was Witten, taken by radballs the spot after me; 100 points more on the year. I think he would have been better than that with Leinart, but I definitely will devalue a great receiver with a crappy QB more in the future.
2.07 Desean Jackson (WR PHI) [Go Bears!]
Hook snagged Gonzo a few picks earlier, which left me with a choice of WRs. RB value is for crap, and the dropoff from Gonzo/Davis to Celek and the rest of the TE crew is pretty drastic. The top WR on my board was R.White, taken just before me by radballs, which left me feeling fine about taking Jackson, who was actually second on my board after White. I do have Jackson projected a little ahead of Dodds, but with completely plausible numbers (70/1100/8).
The other two contenders here were Colston and Jennings, who will probably go within the next five picks or so. By the time it comes back around to me, I’m pretty sure I won’t be excited about anyone on the board; the one guy I’m hoping to land is Ochocinco. After that it’s all damaged goods.
Injuries limited him a bit; he finished as WR#19 after going off the board as WR#8. Jennings would have been the pick; he finished as WR#2, 80+ points ahead of Jackson (and still going)
3.10 Steve Smith (WR NYG)
Just Win Baby snaked Ochocinco two picks before mine, which dropped me down into my next tier of players (those I’m not very excited about). Our drafting has been pretty good to this point, with value being taken about equally from all positions; here I considered Owen Daniels, Ryan Grant, and even Philip Rivers, who all offered similar value. But in the end it looked most promising to take the “best of the rest” WR, which I judged as “the other” Steve Smith (over Hines Ward and Hakeem Nicks). With PPR I think Smith is a more reliable choice than either of the others; Nicks might score more points in non-PPR, but Smith should get more targets and more receptions. Ward’s QB situation knocks him down or I might have gone that way.
Now we’re looking at a big glut of more-or-less-equivalent RBs, who will probably start going off the board soon. I’m expecting my next pick will be RB; perhaps Chris Wells or Pierre Thomas.
He got hurt, which sucked, but the major whiff was on reading the NYG WR situation wrong. Nicks is a stud, finishing as WR#9, and putting up huge numbers even while Smith was in; Smith finished as WR#62 after missing half the season.
4.07 Hines Ward (WR PIT)
radballs snaked Chris Wells the pick before me; he was at the top of my draft board, but I had Hines Ward second, since I’d been considering him at 3.10 anyway. With Holmes gone, it seems a lock that Ward will get a ton of targets, and he’s showed no signs of slowing down. I really think he’s a good candidate for one last big season, Joey Galloway style, as the clear #1 target in Pittsburgh. He’ll be missing Ben for 4-6 games, but even so, he’s a lock for 80 receptions and could easily be over 100. He finished as the #14 WR last year in this format, and here he’s the #19 WR off the board. He should easily outperform that ranking.
Following Ward on my draft list was Philip Rivers. I am exceedingly glad I didn’t have to take a QB this early in this format.
I’ve locked up the #1 WR corps in the league; it’s pretty clear I have to start taking other positions now. There are still a lot of RBs out there, so it’s likely I’ll wind up with one at my next pick. For homerism and upside potential, I’m hoping I’ll still have a shot at Jahvid Best.
Before looking back, I hadn't realized how lame Ward's season was; he finished as WR#35. Mike Wallace took too many TDs. Rivers would have been OK, and I still had a shot at Nicks at this point. Blech.
5.10 Ronnie Brown (RB MIA)
My entire pre-draft list got taken out in the few picks before mine (Best, Addai, McCoy in that order), so I had to reevaluate whether I wanted to take a RB. Ronnie Brown has enough potential to make it worth it. The only question is how many games he plays; he will likely be in the top 10 in points per game for RBs. The only question is whether that’s 16 games, 12, or 4.
For my next pick, I’ll probably be looking at RB again, or else at Jeremy Shockey if he’s still around. WRs are pretty equivalent at this point, and enough QBs have been knocked off that their value has dissipated.
RB#23 off the board, RB#31 for the season. Too much of a split with Williams, not enough Brown running the wildcat.
6.07 Jeremy Shockey (TE NO)
I had three guys on my pre-draft list, and two of them (Moreno and Jacobs) were taken out in the two picks before me. Fortunately I had Shockey as tops on my list. He’s the last of the good TEs on the board; the gap down to the next TE is 40 points in the projections. The projections haven’t been adjusted yet for his training camp injury, but still, he should put up a lot more points than Bo Scaife or Anthony Fasano. It feels like the difference between Shockey and Moreno (#1 and #2 on my board at that point) could easily be 100+ points; they’re both high risk, high reward players. Hope I wound up with the right one.
TE value is now dead for at least two rounds, and I’m pretty set at WR, so I’ll likely be going RB next round unless something weird happens. I’m interested in Cadillac Williams and Clinton Portis.
Another injury-hobbled guy, finished as TE#25. Could easily have been a lot better. But not as good as Mike Wallace, taken the pick after this, who scored over 100 points more. And the difference between Shockey and Moreno turned out to be 16 points (in Moreno's favor).
7.10 Cadillac Williams (RB TB)
My third clear-starter-with-injury-risk in a row. A healthy Williams playing 16 games would be an absolute steal down here; he finished as RB29 playing hobbled last year, and here he’s the #31 RB off the board. The question is whether he’ll be healthy, hobbled, or just out. At RB #31, you’re not going to get a potential stud with no injury questions, so I’m happy with the pick. Second round in a row, my #2 and #3 picks got knocked off (R.Bush and Bradshaw), leaving me with my top choice (after Portis, who went a good bit earlier).
Next round, I’m probably looking for another RB, or possibly one of the more interesting WRs. Right now Gaffney is at the top of the DD board, but I don’t believe in him (despite almost the entire FBG staff thinking he’s undervalued). This is the guy’s ninth year in the league and he has yet to finish in the top 50 WRs. I might go WR if Cotchery is still available; my top RB target is probably Laurence Maroney, who seemed to get entrenched as the starter in New England as the season went on. Maroney looks like the last of the real starters.
Well, looking back it wasn't as bad as you might think; he finished as RB#39. Hard to see a better plausible pick at this spot, though; Ricky Williams? Fred Jackson?
8.07 Laurence Maroney (RB NE)
I think Maroney’s being overlooked. He’s still the clear starter on a team that should have scoring opportunities. His second-half split last year, once he worked his way back into good graces, was 114/412/6 rushing, 8/63 receiving, and that leaves out his best game of the season. I’ll take 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs at this point of the draft.
I’m up to 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE. I’m resolved to not take a QB or D until the last four rounds, and Ks haven’t started coming up yet; I’ll be flexible on my next pick and take the best value. RB, I could take a shot at one of the Houston backs, or Buckhalter, Leon Washington, or McFadden. WR could be Massaquoi or Avery (or Eddie Royal if he’s still around). At TE I might look at Ben Watson, but he’ll probably still be there a round or two later.
This analysis is not getting any less painful. Eight rounds in and I haven't had a single player even meet expectations. Fred Jackson, Tim Hightower would have been better here.
9.10 Donnie Avery (WR STL)
My general rule is that scrub WRs are more likely to score well than scrub RBs in this format; at this point in the draft, a WR getting even 50 receptions is going to outscore anything an RB is likely to put up. So, I’m expecting that I’m going to wind up with 4 RBs and 6 WRs; this pick gives me 3 RB and 5 WR. Avery seems like a talented player and the team’s clear #1; STL is not likely to be a passing juggernaut, but even with medicore production this could be a good pick. And hey, if Sam Bradford turns out to be any good, Avery could be on target for a top-20 WR finish.
I still need another TE, and of what’s remaining I much prefer Ben Watson to the rest of the dreck out there; I’ll grab him if he’s there next.
I think this was a solid pick, given how well St. Louis played without him. But a zero is a zero.
10.07 Ben Watson (TE CLE)
Ben Watson is clearly the most physically talented of the remaining TEs. He’s also on an offense which lacks a decent WR. Delhomme sucks, but Cleveland will be needing to throw the ball, and someone’s got to catch it. 50 receptions, which I think is plausible, would be huge TE value down here.
I need one more RB and a flex. I’d also like to get Ryan Longwell at K. If Ks haven’t started to go off the board by my next pick, I’ll probably wind up with a RB, possible the anti-homer pick of Leon Washington.
Woo hoo, I finally made a value pick! He finished as TE#10, a great find down here in the 10th round.
11.10 Leon Washington (RB SEA)
I’d like to be wrong, but I’ve never been particularly impressed with Justin Forsett’s talent. I think he’s a hard worker and a solid player, but nothing special as a runner. So I’m expecting Washington to get a lot of touches in Seattle. He may not be given a full starter’s load, even if he works his way into the starting lineup, but if he gets to 150 carries and 40 receptions he’ll be good RB value at this level.
This pick fills up my required skill-position players (except for QB which I’m leaving for later). For my next pick, I’ll very likely either wind up with a WR or Ryan Longwell. Interesting WRs are James Jones, Chaz Schilens, and Josh Morgan. Or DHB as a flier? I haven’t looked at players this crappy yet, I’ll need to do some research.
Phew, another major whiff here. Well, Forsett didn't do much, but even before they brought Lynch in, Washington was relegated to kick returns. I should have gone Marshawn (Go Bears!)
12.06 Chaz Schilens (WR OAK)
I debated over Chaz or DHB here; also thought about Josh Morgan and Chris Chambers. I decided to go with one of the Raiders because one of them is going to be the WR1, and thus have a lot more upside than the other players remaining. I decided to go with Chaz because he’s simply more talented, despite all the noise coming out of camp about how well DHB is doing. It’ll come down to whether his foot is healthy by the time the season starts; if it is, he should be a lock for 60+ receptions and 800+ yards.
I predrafted for this round as I was heading to bed; if I had seen two kickers go off in the picks before mine, I probably would have gone PK here and hoped Chaz was still around at 13.10 (decent bet). Now I’m pretty unlikely to be able to nab Longwell at my next pick. If I can’t get him, I’ll probably grab a QB at my next tern, likely Cassel if he’s still around. My picks are fully constrained at this point: two QBs, two PKs, and two Ds.
Well, none of the WRs I was considering did much. Schilens could have been pretty good but he just couldn't get on the field.
13.10 Carolina Panthers TMQB (Matt Moore, QB CAR)
With my first-choice PK already gone, there’s no real need to compete for the rest. I would have liked to nab Cassell, but Fiddles grabbed him at the turn; of the remaining TMQBs, I like Carolina by far the best. Moore performed impressively in games 12-16 last year, and against good competition--NE, MIN, NYG, and NOR (though NO was resting starters). Had two 3-TD games against teams in the playoff hunt. The guy has Steve Smith to throw to, why is he going as the #28 QB?
The rest of the TMQBs, I don’t see much differentiation between, so I’ll probably go PK at my next two picks. My goal with PK is to make sure I have two guys who are 90% certain to start all year long; it doesn’t really matter who they are. Once we get to the dregs of the PKs, it can be hard to count on any production due to competitive situations, but anyone who starts all year is close to interchangeable.
#32 out of 32. 35 points below #31, 60 points below #30. Just incredibly bad. Cleveland TMQB was the pick (assuming Buffalo was off the table due to Stanfraudiness).
14.07 Sebastian Janikowski (PK OAK)
He’s a good kicker who’ll have the job all year. Whether or not Oakland scores a lot of points, Seabass will at least be middle-of-the-pack at PK, which is all you need.
Probably looking for another PK at my next pick, before the kickers get really marginal.
PK#2. Woo hoo.
15.10 Olindo Mare (PK MIA)
See 14.07.
Now I need a QB and two Ds. My research showed that last-round Ds perform better than last-round TMQBs, so I’m going with a QB at 16.07. I don’t really care who it is, as long as he’s not from Stanford.
PK#12. Woo hoo.
16.07 St. Louis Rams TMQB (Sam Bradford, QB STL)
Of the three QBs left, I think St. Louis has the best weapons, plus I get to double up with Avery.
Now, two defenses. Fortunately there are two left with Cal players! (Detroit and Clevelend). They’ll be my first choices.
This came out OK, except for losing Avery. From a fantasy perspective, they finished #27, but not embarrassingly badly like so many of my other picks.
17.10 Detroit DST
Hey, I wound up with a token Cal player; Zack Follett at OLB. Actually I think this defense is significantly underrated down here after the addition of a boy named Suh. They sucked last year but will not suck nearly as badly this year; a middling performance would be good value here.
Suh made a big difference; they finished as D#16.
I’m targeting Cleveland D for my last pick.
18.07 Cleveland DST
Another token Cal player! (Scott Fuijita). Cleveland’s D will probably still suck, but it’ll be better than #31 where it’s being taken now.
Finished as D#27, reasonable for the last round.
Really a massively disappointing result. Some of it was due to injury, some of it was due to whiffs on player evaluation, and some of it was just due to happenstance, drafting where I was with the people around me; the guys who would have been difference makers often went just before me.
Strategically I think I did fine; tactically I blew chunks. Next year!
1.10 Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)
In previous years I would have gone for Gonzo here, but even as a Cal homer I can’t really justify it with Fitzgerald still on the board. Fitz only fell this far because he lost Warner, but even with Leinart at QB you’re looking at one of the top two or three WRs in the league in a situation where he’s likely to get 150 targets. The overall Cardinals offense is going to take a hit this year, but Fitz should still be studly.
Plus, there’s a decent chance I’ll be able to get Gonzo at my second pick; the QB-picking chumps are getting going, and this year we might see Witten, Davis, and Finley go before Gonzo.
Well, this didn't turn out to be a complete disaster; Fitzgerald finished as WR#11. But the pick was Witten, taken by radballs the spot after me; 100 points more on the year. I think he would have been better than that with Leinart, but I definitely will devalue a great receiver with a crappy QB more in the future.
2.07 Desean Jackson (WR PHI) [Go Bears!]
Hook snagged Gonzo a few picks earlier, which left me with a choice of WRs. RB value is for crap, and the dropoff from Gonzo/Davis to Celek and the rest of the TE crew is pretty drastic. The top WR on my board was R.White, taken just before me by radballs, which left me feeling fine about taking Jackson, who was actually second on my board after White. I do have Jackson projected a little ahead of Dodds, but with completely plausible numbers (70/1100/8).
The other two contenders here were Colston and Jennings, who will probably go within the next five picks or so. By the time it comes back around to me, I’m pretty sure I won’t be excited about anyone on the board; the one guy I’m hoping to land is Ochocinco. After that it’s all damaged goods.
Injuries limited him a bit; he finished as WR#19 after going off the board as WR#8. Jennings would have been the pick; he finished as WR#2, 80+ points ahead of Jackson (and still going)
3.10 Steve Smith (WR NYG)
Just Win Baby snaked Ochocinco two picks before mine, which dropped me down into my next tier of players (those I’m not very excited about). Our drafting has been pretty good to this point, with value being taken about equally from all positions; here I considered Owen Daniels, Ryan Grant, and even Philip Rivers, who all offered similar value. But in the end it looked most promising to take the “best of the rest” WR, which I judged as “the other” Steve Smith (over Hines Ward and Hakeem Nicks). With PPR I think Smith is a more reliable choice than either of the others; Nicks might score more points in non-PPR, but Smith should get more targets and more receptions. Ward’s QB situation knocks him down or I might have gone that way.
Now we’re looking at a big glut of more-or-less-equivalent RBs, who will probably start going off the board soon. I’m expecting my next pick will be RB; perhaps Chris Wells or Pierre Thomas.
He got hurt, which sucked, but the major whiff was on reading the NYG WR situation wrong. Nicks is a stud, finishing as WR#9, and putting up huge numbers even while Smith was in; Smith finished as WR#62 after missing half the season.
4.07 Hines Ward (WR PIT)
radballs snaked Chris Wells the pick before me; he was at the top of my draft board, but I had Hines Ward second, since I’d been considering him at 3.10 anyway. With Holmes gone, it seems a lock that Ward will get a ton of targets, and he’s showed no signs of slowing down. I really think he’s a good candidate for one last big season, Joey Galloway style, as the clear #1 target in Pittsburgh. He’ll be missing Ben for 4-6 games, but even so, he’s a lock for 80 receptions and could easily be over 100. He finished as the #14 WR last year in this format, and here he’s the #19 WR off the board. He should easily outperform that ranking.
Following Ward on my draft list was Philip Rivers. I am exceedingly glad I didn’t have to take a QB this early in this format.
I’ve locked up the #1 WR corps in the league; it’s pretty clear I have to start taking other positions now. There are still a lot of RBs out there, so it’s likely I’ll wind up with one at my next pick. For homerism and upside potential, I’m hoping I’ll still have a shot at Jahvid Best.
Before looking back, I hadn't realized how lame Ward's season was; he finished as WR#35. Mike Wallace took too many TDs. Rivers would have been OK, and I still had a shot at Nicks at this point. Blech.
5.10 Ronnie Brown (RB MIA)
My entire pre-draft list got taken out in the few picks before mine (Best, Addai, McCoy in that order), so I had to reevaluate whether I wanted to take a RB. Ronnie Brown has enough potential to make it worth it. The only question is how many games he plays; he will likely be in the top 10 in points per game for RBs. The only question is whether that’s 16 games, 12, or 4.
For my next pick, I’ll probably be looking at RB again, or else at Jeremy Shockey if he’s still around. WRs are pretty equivalent at this point, and enough QBs have been knocked off that their value has dissipated.
RB#23 off the board, RB#31 for the season. Too much of a split with Williams, not enough Brown running the wildcat.
6.07 Jeremy Shockey (TE NO)
I had three guys on my pre-draft list, and two of them (Moreno and Jacobs) were taken out in the two picks before me. Fortunately I had Shockey as tops on my list. He’s the last of the good TEs on the board; the gap down to the next TE is 40 points in the projections. The projections haven’t been adjusted yet for his training camp injury, but still, he should put up a lot more points than Bo Scaife or Anthony Fasano. It feels like the difference between Shockey and Moreno (#1 and #2 on my board at that point) could easily be 100+ points; they’re both high risk, high reward players. Hope I wound up with the right one.
TE value is now dead for at least two rounds, and I’m pretty set at WR, so I’ll likely be going RB next round unless something weird happens. I’m interested in Cadillac Williams and Clinton Portis.
Another injury-hobbled guy, finished as TE#25. Could easily have been a lot better. But not as good as Mike Wallace, taken the pick after this, who scored over 100 points more. And the difference between Shockey and Moreno turned out to be 16 points (in Moreno's favor).
7.10 Cadillac Williams (RB TB)
My third clear-starter-with-injury-risk in a row. A healthy Williams playing 16 games would be an absolute steal down here; he finished as RB29 playing hobbled last year, and here he’s the #31 RB off the board. The question is whether he’ll be healthy, hobbled, or just out. At RB #31, you’re not going to get a potential stud with no injury questions, so I’m happy with the pick. Second round in a row, my #2 and #3 picks got knocked off (R.Bush and Bradshaw), leaving me with my top choice (after Portis, who went a good bit earlier).
Next round, I’m probably looking for another RB, or possibly one of the more interesting WRs. Right now Gaffney is at the top of the DD board, but I don’t believe in him (despite almost the entire FBG staff thinking he’s undervalued). This is the guy’s ninth year in the league and he has yet to finish in the top 50 WRs. I might go WR if Cotchery is still available; my top RB target is probably Laurence Maroney, who seemed to get entrenched as the starter in New England as the season went on. Maroney looks like the last of the real starters.
Well, looking back it wasn't as bad as you might think; he finished as RB#39. Hard to see a better plausible pick at this spot, though; Ricky Williams? Fred Jackson?
8.07 Laurence Maroney (RB NE)
I think Maroney’s being overlooked. He’s still the clear starter on a team that should have scoring opportunities. His second-half split last year, once he worked his way back into good graces, was 114/412/6 rushing, 8/63 receiving, and that leaves out his best game of the season. I’ll take 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs at this point of the draft.
I’m up to 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE. I’m resolved to not take a QB or D until the last four rounds, and Ks haven’t started coming up yet; I’ll be flexible on my next pick and take the best value. RB, I could take a shot at one of the Houston backs, or Buckhalter, Leon Washington, or McFadden. WR could be Massaquoi or Avery (or Eddie Royal if he’s still around). At TE I might look at Ben Watson, but he’ll probably still be there a round or two later.
This analysis is not getting any less painful. Eight rounds in and I haven't had a single player even meet expectations. Fred Jackson, Tim Hightower would have been better here.
9.10 Donnie Avery (WR STL)
My general rule is that scrub WRs are more likely to score well than scrub RBs in this format; at this point in the draft, a WR getting even 50 receptions is going to outscore anything an RB is likely to put up. So, I’m expecting that I’m going to wind up with 4 RBs and 6 WRs; this pick gives me 3 RB and 5 WR. Avery seems like a talented player and the team’s clear #1; STL is not likely to be a passing juggernaut, but even with medicore production this could be a good pick. And hey, if Sam Bradford turns out to be any good, Avery could be on target for a top-20 WR finish.
I still need another TE, and of what’s remaining I much prefer Ben Watson to the rest of the dreck out there; I’ll grab him if he’s there next.
I think this was a solid pick, given how well St. Louis played without him. But a zero is a zero.
10.07 Ben Watson (TE CLE)
Ben Watson is clearly the most physically talented of the remaining TEs. He’s also on an offense which lacks a decent WR. Delhomme sucks, but Cleveland will be needing to throw the ball, and someone’s got to catch it. 50 receptions, which I think is plausible, would be huge TE value down here.
I need one more RB and a flex. I’d also like to get Ryan Longwell at K. If Ks haven’t started to go off the board by my next pick, I’ll probably wind up with a RB, possible the anti-homer pick of Leon Washington.
Woo hoo, I finally made a value pick! He finished as TE#10, a great find down here in the 10th round.
11.10 Leon Washington (RB SEA)
I’d like to be wrong, but I’ve never been particularly impressed with Justin Forsett’s talent. I think he’s a hard worker and a solid player, but nothing special as a runner. So I’m expecting Washington to get a lot of touches in Seattle. He may not be given a full starter’s load, even if he works his way into the starting lineup, but if he gets to 150 carries and 40 receptions he’ll be good RB value at this level.
This pick fills up my required skill-position players (except for QB which I’m leaving for later). For my next pick, I’ll very likely either wind up with a WR or Ryan Longwell. Interesting WRs are James Jones, Chaz Schilens, and Josh Morgan. Or DHB as a flier? I haven’t looked at players this crappy yet, I’ll need to do some research.
Phew, another major whiff here. Well, Forsett didn't do much, but even before they brought Lynch in, Washington was relegated to kick returns. I should have gone Marshawn (Go Bears!)
12.06 Chaz Schilens (WR OAK)
I debated over Chaz or DHB here; also thought about Josh Morgan and Chris Chambers. I decided to go with one of the Raiders because one of them is going to be the WR1, and thus have a lot more upside than the other players remaining. I decided to go with Chaz because he’s simply more talented, despite all the noise coming out of camp about how well DHB is doing. It’ll come down to whether his foot is healthy by the time the season starts; if it is, he should be a lock for 60+ receptions and 800+ yards.
I predrafted for this round as I was heading to bed; if I had seen two kickers go off in the picks before mine, I probably would have gone PK here and hoped Chaz was still around at 13.10 (decent bet). Now I’m pretty unlikely to be able to nab Longwell at my next pick. If I can’t get him, I’ll probably grab a QB at my next tern, likely Cassel if he’s still around. My picks are fully constrained at this point: two QBs, two PKs, and two Ds.
Well, none of the WRs I was considering did much. Schilens could have been pretty good but he just couldn't get on the field.
13.10 Carolina Panthers TMQB (Matt Moore, QB CAR)
With my first-choice PK already gone, there’s no real need to compete for the rest. I would have liked to nab Cassell, but Fiddles grabbed him at the turn; of the remaining TMQBs, I like Carolina by far the best. Moore performed impressively in games 12-16 last year, and against good competition--NE, MIN, NYG, and NOR (though NO was resting starters). Had two 3-TD games against teams in the playoff hunt. The guy has Steve Smith to throw to, why is he going as the #28 QB?
The rest of the TMQBs, I don’t see much differentiation between, so I’ll probably go PK at my next two picks. My goal with PK is to make sure I have two guys who are 90% certain to start all year long; it doesn’t really matter who they are. Once we get to the dregs of the PKs, it can be hard to count on any production due to competitive situations, but anyone who starts all year is close to interchangeable.
#32 out of 32. 35 points below #31, 60 points below #30. Just incredibly bad. Cleveland TMQB was the pick (assuming Buffalo was off the table due to Stanfraudiness).
14.07 Sebastian Janikowski (PK OAK)
He’s a good kicker who’ll have the job all year. Whether or not Oakland scores a lot of points, Seabass will at least be middle-of-the-pack at PK, which is all you need.
Probably looking for another PK at my next pick, before the kickers get really marginal.
PK#2. Woo hoo.
15.10 Olindo Mare (PK MIA)
See 14.07.
Now I need a QB and two Ds. My research showed that last-round Ds perform better than last-round TMQBs, so I’m going with a QB at 16.07. I don’t really care who it is, as long as he’s not from Stanford.
PK#12. Woo hoo.
16.07 St. Louis Rams TMQB (Sam Bradford, QB STL)
Of the three QBs left, I think St. Louis has the best weapons, plus I get to double up with Avery.
Now, two defenses. Fortunately there are two left with Cal players! (Detroit and Clevelend). They’ll be my first choices.
This came out OK, except for losing Avery. From a fantasy perspective, they finished #27, but not embarrassingly badly like so many of my other picks.
17.10 Detroit DST
Hey, I wound up with a token Cal player; Zack Follett at OLB. Actually I think this defense is significantly underrated down here after the addition of a boy named Suh. They sucked last year but will not suck nearly as badly this year; a middling performance would be good value here.
Suh made a big difference; they finished as D#16.
I’m targeting Cleveland D for my last pick.
18.07 Cleveland DST
Another token Cal player! (Scott Fuijita). Cleveland’s D will probably still suck, but it’ll be better than #31 where it’s being taken now.
Finished as D#27, reasonable for the last round.
Really a massively disappointing result. Some of it was due to injury, some of it was due to whiffs on player evaluation, and some of it was just due to happenstance, drafting where I was with the people around me; the guys who would have been difference makers often went just before me.
Strategically I think I did fine; tactically I blew chunks. Next year!
its a good night
its a good night
its a good night
