2010 QB Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Now that my major drafts are over I can unveil which players I think you should target and avoid. The following is the consensus ranking for QBs…enjoy.

Blue = Players who I would target at current ADP/ranking

Red = Players who I would avoid at current ADP/ranking

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Peyton Manning

4. Tony Romo

5. Tom Brady

6. Matt Schaub

7. Phillip Rivers

8. Jay Cutler

9. Eli Manning

10. Donovan McNabb

11. Brett Favre

12. Kevin Kolb

13. Matt Ryan

14. Joe Flacco

15. Carson Palmer

16. Matthew Stafford

17. Vince Young

18. Chad Henne

19. Alex Smith

20. Ben Roethlisberger

21. David Garrard

22. Matt Cassel

23. Mark Sanchez

24. Jason Campbell

25. Kyle Orton

26. Josh Freeman

27. Matt Hasselbeck

28. Matt Moore

29. Matt Leinart

30. Sam Bradford

31. Trent Edwards

32. Jake Delhomme

33. Derek Anderson

34. Byron Leftwich

General QB Strategy for 2010

- It's very important in most leagues to ge one of the top 6 QBs

- Eli Manning has a nice ADP

- For my second QB I love, love the value that Ben Roethlisberger presents this year. Orton is great value too

- Derek Anderson is an interesting deep pick

Fire away with any questions you might have about particular players...great time of the year!!

I'll do RBs, WRs and TEs in the coming days.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

It kills me that you are targeting one of the guys I drafted today.

Thank God the other one is on your avoid list.

 

[John555]

Orton is grossly underrated. I think Anderson will be decent and thus somewhat underrated. Not sure I would be avoiding Phillip Rivers.

 

[decoy]

Why Orton? What am I missing?

Sigmund is also high on Orton. Picked him up as his QB2 in his draft last night.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Leinart accidentally all the way down at 29.

 

[LHUCKS]

Why Orton? What am I missing? Sigmund is also high on Orton. Picked him up as his QB2 in his draft last night.

McDaniels not afraid to throw and is raving about Orton this offseason...has looked pretty good in limited preseason action.Value City

 

[LHUCKS]

Leinart accidentally all the way down at 29.

A) These aren't my rankingsB) that's what happens when you're demoted

 

[LHUCKS]

Orton is grossly underrated.

Correct

I think Anderson will be decent and thus somewhat underrated.

Correct

Not sure I would be avoiding Phillip Rivers.

Everybody in SD wants a more balanced offense and they have an unproven WR group...sell high.

 

[Instinctive]

Leinart accidentally all the way down at 29.

These aren't my rankings...that's what happens when you're demoted

I thought he was god's gift to quarterbacking though...Thank the heavens Kolb is on your avoid list..got him way late and now I'm really excited about it. May have to go drop Orton though

 

[John555]

Why Orton? What am I missing? Sigmund is also high on Orton. Picked him up as his QB2 in his draft last night.

The guy threw for 3800 yards and 21 TDs. He should bump those numbers up. No way are there 15 QBs in the league that do better than that.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

36) Kurt Warner

37) Philip Rivers

69) Matt Schaub

78) Carson Palmer

105) Matt Hasselbeck

119) Kyle Orton DEN

121) Trent Edwards

184) Shaun Hill SF

202) JaMarcus Russell

Here are Levi's picks from a year ago. Genius.

 

[LHUCKS]

Thank the heavens Kolb is on your avoid list..got him way late and now I'm really excited about it. May have to go drop Orton though

I almost went neutral on Kolb, but his ADP is too high for me...has looked shaky in the preseason and looks like he's going to need some more games under his belt before he settles in...may be a good buy low candidate after the first month.

 

[LHUCKS]

Leinart accidentally all the way down at 29.

These aren't my rankings...that's what happens when you're demoted

I thought he was god's gift to quarterbacking though...

Talk to Wisenhunt about it...

 

[Captain Hook]

Everybody in SD wants a more balanced offense and they have an unproven WR group...sell high.

? Rivers has been dropping in drafts largely due to the VJax situation, but while they have a RB Norv will use a lot this year, they will still be a passing offense. Gates, Floyd, and Naanee will all be good receivers for Rivers as will both Sproles and Matthews out of the backfield.If you can get this guy in the 7th or 8th rounds (I have seen ninth), with a week ten bye and a very easy schedule it will be FF Gift.......despite what Huckelberry says here.

 

[LHUCKS]

Everybody in SD wants a more balanced offense and they have an unproven WR group...sell high.

? Rivers has been dropping in drafts largely due to the VJax situation, but while they have a RB Norv will use a lot this year, they will still be a passing offense. Gates, Floyd, and Naanee will all be good receivers for Rivers as will both Sproles and Matthews out of the backfield.If you can get this guy in the 7th or 8th rounds (I have seen ninth), with a week ten bye and a very easy schedule it will be FF Gift.......despite what Huckelberry says here.

Hook, you and I know Rivers' ADP is significantly higher than the 8th round.

 

[LHUCKS]

Everybody in SD wants a more balanced offense and they have an unproven WR group...sell high.

? Rivers has been dropping in drafts largely due to the VJax situation

Yet he's still ranked 7th by the consensus...

 

[pep1285]

How much does the value of a QB go up if passing tds are worth 6? For example in a ten team non ppr would you take Rodgers at 5 over someone like turner or gore?

 

[LHUCKS]

How much does the value of a QB go up if passing tds are worth 6? For example in a ten team non ppr would you take Rodgers at 5 over someone like turner or gore?

I have the exact same league setup...took Ray Rice at 1.03 and ended up with Schaub at 3.03...my advice in that format is make sure you get one of the top 6 QBs. Also, go early on QB#2 if you can.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

36) Kurt Warner

37) Philip Rivers

69) Matt Schaub

78) Carson Palmer

105) Matt Hasselbeck

119) Kyle Orton DEN

121) Trent Edwards

184) Shaun Hill SF

202) JaMarcus Russell

Here are Levi's picks from a year ago. Genius.

As for Rivers, not having Jackson is a slight concern, but I think Rivers is more than good enough to still put up 25-30 TD passes, especially with that schedule of theirs. He is still gonna be a top fantasy QB.

 

[Captain Hook]

Everybody in SD wants a more balanced offense and they have an unproven WR group...sell high.

? Rivers has been dropping in drafts largely due to the VJax situation, but while they have a RB Norv will use a lot this year, they will still be a passing offense. Gates, Floyd, and Naanee will all be good receivers for Rivers as will both Sproles and Matthews out of the backfield.If you can get this guy in the 7th or 8th rounds (I have seen ninth), with a week ten bye and a very easy schedule it will be FF Gift.......despite what Huckelberry says here.

Hook, you and I know Rivers' ADP is significantly higher than the 8th round.

Most times it is - I was just making a pointIF you look here http://footballguys.com/bigfridaydrafts.htmhttp://footballguys.com/bigfridaydrafts.htm"]http://footballguys.com/bigfridaydrafts.htm

at the Big Friday drafts from yesterday in the FBG PC, Rivers went at

5.02

6.02

7.05 (Cutler ahead of him at 7.04)

Just saying if you can get Rivers in the 7th or 8th it is a BARGAIN

If you don't get him you can usually still get Cutler or Kolb and certainly Eli

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

hey Lhucks,

thanks for taking the time to actually post a worthwhile thread, and maybe if your reputation in the FFA wasnt terrible we could actually have adecent discussion about QB value without all these trolls coming in here to try and rub salt.

So, i agree with you If i dont get a top7 QB im going to be in trouble.

We have disagreed on Rivers before, the guy is elite, and will produce elite numbers.

I also agree on Kolb, overvalued, Id rather take Matt Ryan.

 

[bweiser]

hey Lhucks,thanks for taking the time to actually post a worthwhile thread, and maybe if your reputation in the FFA wasnt terrible we could actually have adecent discussion about QB value without all these trolls coming in here to try and rub salt.So, i agree with you If i dont get a top7 QB im going to be in trouble.We have disagreed on Rivers before, the guy is elite, and will produce elite numbers.I also agree on Kolb, overvalued, Id rather take Matt Ryan.

To be fair, Kolb and Ryan are ranked 12 and 13. Kolb is just in a more pass-happy offense, so I'd probably rank him ahead of Ryan based on that as well. I agree on Rivers. I would love to own him.

 

[LHUCKS]

hey Lhucks,thanks for taking the time to actually post a worthwhile thread, and maybe if your reputation in the FFA wasnt terrible we could actually have adecent discussion about QB value without all these trolls coming in here to try and rub salt.So, i agree with you If i dont get a top7 QB im going to be in trouble.We have disagreed on Rivers before, the guy is elite, and will produce elite numbers.I also agree on Kolb, overvalued, Id rather take Matt Ryan.

To be fair, Kolb and Ryan are ranked 12 and 13. Kolb is just in a more pass-happy offense, so I'd probably rank him ahead of Ryan based on that as well. I agree on Rivers. I would love to own him.

so who do you NOT like...a lot of shark poolers love to talk about who they like, not so much who they don't like.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

hey Lhucks,thanks for taking the time to actually post a worthwhile thread, and maybe if your reputation in the FFA wasnt terrible we could actually have adecent discussion about QB value without all these trolls coming in here to try and rub salt.So, i agree with you If i dont get a top7 QB im going to be in trouble.We have disagreed on Rivers before, the guy is elite, and will produce elite numbers.I also agree on Kolb, overvalued, Id rather take Matt Ryan.

To be fair, Kolb and Ryan are ranked 12 and 13. Kolb is just in a more pass-happy offense, so I'd probably rank him ahead of Ryan based on that as well. I agree on Rivers. I would love to own him.

Kolb is still very Green game experience wise. Also expect to see alot of people complaining about Vick stealing red-zone looks. Matt Ryan to me has al lthe weapons and is entering year 3 of starting, to me he could sneak into "elite" status from an FFL persepctive this season. Kolb I think you will have to wait onAnd i dont want eli manning on any team ever. If Im starting him at qB in FFL something is wrong

 

[LHUCKS]

And i dont want eli manning on any team ever. If Im starting him at qB in FFL something is wrong

His yardage is awesome for his ADP...if he can just raise that TD level he'd be great value.Very solid for where he's getting drafted IMHO.

 

[LHUCKS]

Kolb is still very Green game experience wise. Also expect to see alot of people complaining about Vick stealing red-zone looks.

People have completely disregarded this...I believe the recognition of this risk is warranted after Kolb's play last week.

 

[joffer]

disagree on McNabb. he may have a lot of turnovers, but i think he throws for a ton of yards.

 

[LHUCKS]

disagree on McNabb. he may have a lot of turnovers, but i think he throws for a ton of yards.

How many top 7 fantasy seasons has a Shanahan QB had?

 

[LHUCKS]

Cutler looked awful today...I want to bump him back down to neutral.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

disagree on McNabb. he may have a lot of turnovers, but i think he throws for a ton of yards.

How many top 7 fantasy seasons has a Shanahan QB had?

im sure Elway had a couple

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Cutler looked awful today...I want to bump him back down to neutral.

He is going to get drilled all day in that system plus be a turnover machine. If yo uget - 2for turnovers you might wanna look elsewhere.I think the play in the bears O is Knox. Its the pre-seaon though

 

[Rovers]

I don't think it's unreasonable to take a look at LHUCKS efforts from years past. He had some reall awful misses, and I think he's got more of them this year. I agree on some choices. Eli Manning can be gotten much later than Rivers, and the picks one can make in those 3 or 4 rounds have offer significantly more FF production even if Rivers outscores Manning. These two QB's weren't seperated by a whole lot in FF points last year.

I'll flat out call Favre and McNabb as being "avoids" are going to prove out to misses. McNabb is currently QB 15. Cutler's QB ADP (9) is one higher than Favre. Martz or no Martz, Cutler is being over rated. I agree with Kolb, I think he's a reach at his current ADP QB8 position.

Campbell at 24 is an avoid while Orton at 25 is a target? Even when I try to understand this one, I can't. Makes no sense to me whatsoever.

Fine, you want to share your thoughts, but do it and be prepared for some critisism. And no, one does not have to offer their own rankings to have the right to comment.

 

[LHUCKS]

Campbell at 24 is an avoid while Orton at 25 is a target? Even when I try to understand this one, I can't.

Really? Campbell plays for the Raiders, Orton in a more more effective offense and having a great preseason.Orton is a lock to outperform Campbell.

 

[LHUCKS]

I bumped Cutler down to neutral after tonights awful performance...just terrible.

 

[LHUCKS]

He had some reall awful misses, and I think he's got more of them this year.

I'll have more this year, as will every other person that puts out rankings...anybody remember FBG and FFIndex both pimping Tatum Tinker Bell?? That's what makes the hobby challenging and fun IMHO.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I'll give you two, and you can comment on it if you like.

Phillip Rivers is underrated by FBG and several other bureaus of fantasy expertise because of his performance last year (8th and 9th among QBs in most formats). The Chargers have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL, the best TE in the game, a very capable Malcolm Floyd and Darren Sproles who is one of the best backfield weapons in football. Once VJax is back from his suspension Rivers will be heated up, and ready to tear through their extremely easy schedule. He was 4217/28/9 last year, expect about five more TDs and similar yards while Rivers finishes in the top 5 among fantasy QBs, and ahead of Romo or Schaub.

Alex Smith will bloom this year as well with an improved line and a full off-season with Crabtree and the same offensive coordinator as he had last year (he had five diff coordinators in his first five years). 49ers also have an easy schedule and Smith should improve on his TD/Int ratio. Smith had 18 Tds in 11 games last year so a 25TD season with about the same amount of Ints he threw last year (12) should be in order. He's a safe #2 and should be right there with the likes of Eli Manning in the year end rankings.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Phillip Rivers is underrated by FBG and several other bureaus of fantasy expertise because of his performance last year (8th and 9th among QBs in most formats). The Chargers have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL, the best TE in the game, a very capable Malcolm Floyd and Darren Sproles who is one of the best backfield weapons in football. Once VJax is back from his suspension Rivers will be heated up, and ready to tear through their extremely easy schedule. He was 4217/28/9 last year, expect about five more TDs and similar yards while Rivers finishes in the top 5 among fantasy QBs, and ahead of Romo or Schaub. Alex Smith will bloom this year as well with an improved line and a full off-season with Crabtree and the same offensive coordinator as he had last year (he had five diff coordinators in his first five years). 49ers also have an easy schedule and Smith should improve on his TD/Int ratio. Smith had 18 Tds in 11 games last year so a 25TD season with about the same amount of Ints he threw last year (12) should be in order. He's a safe #2 and should be right there with the likes of Eli Manning in the year end rankings.

Ok. 'Phillip Rivers is underrated by FBG' By the way I drafted Rivers at 5.12, so I guess I agree with you.

 

[Rovers]

Campbell at 24 is an avoid while Orton at 25 is a target? Even when I try to understand this one, I can't.

Really? Campbell plays for the Raiders, Orton in a more more effective offense and having a great preseason.Orton is a lock to outperform Campbell.

I disagree. I don't like either Orton's WR's, or the unsettled situation at RB. You are saying Orton will be a solid QB2 and Campbell isn't even a QB2. I like the Raiders young group of WR's a lot. I think between Bush running and McFadden catching, it will be difficult to key on one aspect of the Raider's O by opposing D's. Last year:Orton: 3800, 21 TD's, 12 INT's, 71 yds rushThat was with B Marshall, an elite WR. That means for Orton to repeat, over 1100 yards and 10 TD's have to go elsewhere for him to repeat his numbers. No Scheffler either. Suspect rushing attack.Campbell: 3600, 20 TD's 15 INT's, 200 yards rushThat was with a pretty weak WR corp, a rush offense that wasn't very good and in a much tougher division than the AFC west. He had a good TE, but steps into an upgrade at that position in Oakland. Bush and McFadden take some pressure off. I think it's a lock that Campbell outperforms Orton this year, barring injuries. If you want to hang your hat on Orton's preseason numbers against the likes of Detroit's D, (in which he also threw a pik 6) fine. I'm not seeing it.

 

[timschochet]

Why did you write to avoid Chad Henne? I didn't draft him, but based on his perfomances in the last month of 2009, he might be a very good pick. And this year he has a real WR to throw to.

 

[LHUCKS]

You are saying Orton will be a solid QB2 and Campbell isn't even a QB2.

No, that's not what I'm saying.I'm saying exactly what I typed. At Orton's ranking/ADP he is good value.Campbell is not worth a roster spot IMHO. He has no shot at top 15 numbers. In most leagues you want guys that can step in and perform...Campbell isn't a guy I'm targeting for that.I hope the Raiders offense works out for you this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

Why did you write to avoid Chad Henne? I didn't draft him, but based on his perfomances in the last month of 2009, he might be a very good pick. And this year he has a real WR to throw to.

Because my drafting philosophy is to only target guys that can have an impact...ie guys that I think have a chance at putting up big games from time to time.The Miami offense is far too conservative to waste a pick on Henne IMHO.You're playing for fourth place, not first, when you waste picks on players like Henne.

 

[Rovers]

You are saying Orton will be a solid QB2 and Campbell isn't even a QB2.

No, that's not what I'm saying.I'm saying exactly what I typed. At Orton's ranking/ADP he is good value.Campbell is not worth a roster spot IMHO. He has no shot at top 15 numbers. In most leagues you want guys that can step in and perform...Campbell isn't a guy I'm targeting for that.I hope the Raiders offense works out for you this year.

I didn't say Campbell will make top 15. You think Orton has a shot at top 15 without Marshall? That seems to be what you are implying. I think Campbell makes a nice QB 2 , and think he'll end up around QB 18-20. I think Orton lands around 25-28, close to his ADP. Very borderline QB2. As far as the Raider's offense goes, I like Bush as RB3. The WR's are a crapshoot. I won't draft any. I think the targets will be spread out quite a bit. I like the TE as a bye week filler, borderline TE1. I like Campbell as a late round QB2. Bottom line is I don't like Orton at all.

 

[LHUCKS]

I didn't say Campbell will make top 15.

I didn't say that you did.

You think Orton has a shot at top 15 without Marshall? That seems to be what you are implying.

Of the QBs around where Orton is ranked, I think Orton has the best shot of cracking the top 15.

I think Campbell makes a nice QB 2 , and think he'll end up around QB 18-20. I think Orton lands around 25-28, close to his ADP. Very borderline QB2.

Sounds like we'll agree to disagree here.

 

[Tony Jabroni]

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

36) Kurt Warner

37) Philip Rivers

69) Matt Schaub

78) Carson Palmer

105) Matt Hasselbeck

119) Kyle Orton DEN

121) Trent Edwards

184) Shaun Hill SF

202) JaMarcus Russell

Here are Levi's picks from a year ago. Genius.

As for Rivers, not having Jackson is a slight concern, but I think Rivers is more than good enough to still put up 25-30 TD passes, especially with that schedule of theirs. He is still gonna be a top fantasy QB.

I tend to agree, and have owned Rivers for the past couple of years, but he will go 45pts then 11 the next week. I'm a sucker and a big fan but the inconsistency is maddening.

 

[SSOG]

disagree on McNabb. he may have a lot of turnovers, but i think he throws for a ton of yards.

How many top 7 fantasy seasons has a Shanahan QB had?

A Shanahan QB? 5- Elway in 1995, 1996, and 1997, Plummer in 2004, and Cutler in 2008.A Shanahan team? 7. The above, plus in 1998 and 2000 the combinations of Elway/Brister and Griese/Frerotte would have been slam-dunk top-5 fantasy QBs, but the starter got hurt at midseason.7 top-7 finishes in 14 years ain't too shabby, no matter how you slice it. It's way, way, way above league average (which would be 3 top-7 finishes in a 14 year span). Thanks for playing, though.

 

[LHUCKS]

A Shanahan QB? 5- Elway in 1995, 1996, and 1997, Plummer in 2004, and Cutler in 2008.

So 5 out of 14 years...no thanks.McNabb is probably ranked about right...but I'd rather wait another few rounds and gamble on Stafford/Flacco/Palmer...all who have similar, if not more, upside."Thanks for playing."

 

[SSOG]

A Shanahan QB? 5- Elway in 1995, 1996, and 1997, Plummer in 2004, and Cutler in 2008.

So 5 out of 14 years...no thanks.McNabb is probably ranked about right...but I'd rather wait another few rounds and gamble on Stafford/Flacco/Palmer...all who have similar, if not more, upside.

"Thanks for playing."

7 out of 14 years, unless you think the fact that Griese got hurt in 2000 means that Shanahan doesn't know how to produce fantasy studs. Hell, I think the fact that Denver had a top-5 passing game despite being forced to start Gus Frerotte should be a positive, not a negative.Even if you want to go with the 5 out of 14 figure, though... again, league average is 3 out of 14, so Shanahan's still almost double league average. And the best part is that you don't even have to draft McNabb in the top 7 in order to secure his services.

 

[Tony Jabroni]

A Shanahan QB? 5- Elway in 1995, 1996, and 1997, Plummer in 2004, and Cutler in 2008.

So 5 out of 14 years...no thanks.McNabb is probably ranked about right...but I'd rather wait another few rounds and gamble on Stafford/Flacco/Palmer...all who have similar, if not more, upside."Thanks for playing."

I think Mcnabb is a sure 10 team starter. Great value where he's been drafted.Carson Palmer is THE QB this year who will make or break many fantasy teams. He's got the skills and weapons, yet the past 2 years have scared people off (rightfully so), and he is going late. I've looked at him as a very high backup, who could very well take over and start for you at a cheap price.

 

[Tau837]

Now that my major drafts are over I can unveil which players I think you should target and avoid. The following is the consensus ranking for QBs…enjoy.

Blue = Players who I would target at current ADP/ranking

Red = Players who I would avoid at current ADP/ranking

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Peyton Manning

4. Tony Romo

5. Tom Brady

6. Matt Schaub

7. Phillip Rivers

8. Jay Cutler

9. Eli Manning

10. Donovan McNabb

11. Brett Favre

12. Kevin Kolb

13. Matt Ryan

14. Joe Flacco

15. Carson Palmer

16. Matthew Stafford

17. Vince Young

18. Chad Henne

19. Alex Smith

20. Ben Roethlisberger

21. David Garrard

22. Matt Cassel

23. Mark Sanchez

24. Jason Campbell

25. Kyle Orton

26. Josh Freeman

27. Matt Hasselbeck

28. Matt Moore

29. Matt Leinart

30. Sam Bradford

31. Trent Edwards

32. Jake Delhomme

33. Derek Anderson

34. Byron Leftwich

Where did you get this ADP list and when? The FBG list updated on 8/28 has some significant differences, though it only goes 30 QBs deep.Here are all of the differences of 3 spots or more from the list you are using:

FBG has Kolb at #8, not #12. Does this change your Avoid recommendation?

FBG has Flacco at #11, not #14. Does this change your Target recommendation?

FBG has Eli at #12, not #9. Since you already were targeting him, this obviously doesn't change anything.

FBG has McNabb at #15, not #10. Does this change your Avoid recommendation?

FBG has Roethlisberger at #16, not #20. Does this change your Target recommendation?

FBG has Sanchez at #20, not #23. Since you already were avoiding him, this obviously doesn't change anything.

FBG has Garrard at #24, not #21. Does this change your Avoid recommendation?

FBG has Freeman at #29, not #24. Does this change your neutral stance on him?

FWIW, here are some of my views:

Rivers is not an avoid at #7. That's about right IMO.

I would not touch Kolb at #8.

I would avoid Cutler at #9.

I would target McNabb at #15. That's a steal IMO.

I would avoid Roethlisberger at #16.

I would target Stafford at #17 as a backup.

I would target Henne at #18 as a backup.

I would target Smith at #21 as a backup.

I would avoid Leinart at #27.

 

[LHUCKS]

Where did you get this ADP list and when?

These are the FBG consensus rankings...better than hack ADP rankings.