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2013 Anarchy League 2 Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
From Rotoworld:
I suppose you are right that Carpenter could end up kicking for another team, though as of right now I am not aware there is a team in need of a kicker.
rzrback77
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
At least one team each season ends up with a zero from a kicker for this reason. As of right now, there is a good chance Carpenter will be one of them.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Alright so not that my kickers are secured (knocks wood), I wanted to come back and talk about this somewhat.It's not only in your mind. As one who has no RBs so far, I liked seeing that run also.
When OM decided to go 3RB with his 1st 3 picks, I got enamored with the idea of employing one of my favorite snake draft tactics, the RB squeeze.
Now I fully admit this strategy is not well suited to this league or scoring format. I likely should not have done it and I do not think OM and I got THAT much advantage out of it. Although OM obviously much more than me.
As usual I got cut out of value TE picks, so that pretty much leaves either a heavy WR or RB strategy as a counter. The WR is a more viable strategy in this format I think, but I just do not like many of the top receiver picks that much, at least not the ones who were left to me, while I did like the RB. So this influenced me to join OM on the squeeze as well. I do think my later pick of DeAngelo Williams could help push the strength a bit further, but as I said earlier, I think most teams got some quality RB anyways, despite myself OM and some help from JeremyX13 and Norseman back around my turn chipping in some RB as well.
A few teams most certainly got squeezed. Fiddles and rzrback came away pretty much unaffected.
So I likely could have done something better/smarter than this. But it was fun anyways.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
just using last year as an example/point of reference:Alright so not that my kickers are secured (knocks wood), I wanted to come back and talk about this somewhat.It's not only in your mind. As one who has no RBs so far, I liked seeing that run also.
When OM decided to go 3RB with his 1st 3 picks, I got enamored with the idea of employing one of my favorite snake draft tactics, the RB squeeze.
Now I fully admit this strategy is not well suited to this league or scoring format. I likely should not have done it and I do not think OM and I got THAT much advantage out of it. Although OM obviously much more than me.
As usual I got cut out of value TE picks, so that pretty much leaves either a heavy WR or RB strategy as a counter. The WR is a more viable strategy in this format I think, but I just do not like many of the top receiver picks that much, at least not the ones who were left to me, while I did like the RB. So this influenced me to join OM on the squeeze as well. I do think my later pick of DeAngelo Williams could help push the strength a bit further, but as I said earlier, I think most teams got some quality RB anyways, despite myself OM and some help from JeremyX13 and Norseman back around my turn chipping in some RB as well.
A few teams most certainly got squeezed. Fiddles and rzrback came away pretty much unaffected.
So I likely could have done something better/smarter than this. But it was fun anyways.
RB's: (every team has to take 4)
Shonn ####### Greene was RB16 in this format last year......169 points
Mike Goodson was RB64 (if every team takes only 4, this is last "starter").....47 points
WR's: (every team has to take 5)
Victor Cruz was WR16....255 points
Doug Baldwin was WR80 (if every team takes only 5, this is last starter).....91 points
in order to get down to the 47 points that Goodson put up, you have to go all the way to Dwayne Harris at WR113
TE's:(every team has to take 2)
Antonio Gates was TE16....194
Robert Housler was TE32 (if everybody only takes 2)....131
Tom Crabtree was TE48 (if evereybody took 3)....57
in order to get down to the 47 points that Goodson put up, you have to go to TE52 and Dante Rosario and his 47 points...which he manged while posting 10 weeks with ZERO points and 4 weeks with 3 or less points....(he put up 30 of his points in week 2, but it doesn't really matter when they get them)...
I'm not really sure what all of the above means....but to me it means that if I pass on RB early and focus on WR/Te and then follow that up by taking a WR or TE as my flex....with some decent drafting....I have a pretty good chance in the long run of "catching" the guys that load up at RB.....and to me it means there is really ZERO reason to take more then 4 RB's in this format...
I am not a numbers guy so this is really strange for me to post....but in this format you can't ignore the scoring system and I am sure there is another way of looking at this that maybe says it is "flawed".... and I know it makes a difference who you actually draft.....but I'm just not sure "passing on TE" or at least not joining the the TE party a little at the beginning is a way to go.....you may put some distance between your team and others at RB, but I think it can be made up......especially if the TE/WR teams hold their own or get an advantage at TMQB....
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
TMQB: Broncos, Raiders
You can't go wrong with Manning and what appears to be a great chance of playing 18 or 19 games with the best WR corps in the league. Didn't really love the other options.
The Raiders never seem to have anyone good throwing the ball or catching it, yet in recent years have put up decent (middle half to top two thirds) in QB production in these leagues. They ranked 16th and 23rd the past couple of years.
RB: Bell, Green-Ellis, Thomas, Woodhead
IMO, if you don't get one of the uber backs, you are better off waiting for guys that score some points before the waive of back ups and lottery tickets hits. I think the sweet spot comes from 100-150 point backs, which are generally available mid rounds . . . guys in the RB20 - RB 35 range.
Bell should be a workhorse for PIT, and even if he doesn't break off many long runs, I can see him getting 1,000 yards with a marginal ypc. BJGE will probably drop off some, but he should still get me those 100 points I look to see from a RB. Pierre Thomas has had consistent years in NO and typically scores in that 100-120 point range. Mathews looks to be in a RBBC in SD, so Woodhead should also be around 100 points again.
WR: Amendola. Bess, Broyles, Garcon, AJohnson, Welker
I still think I got 3 potential 100 catch players in Amendola, Andre Johnson, and Welker once you factor in the playoffs. Broyles and Garcon have shown flashes but need to stay on the field. Bess could get a bunch of underneath catches in CLE for not a lot of yards, but with PPR scoring and one of the last WR off the board, he could still get 100 points on the season if he can get 40-45 catches.
TE: Housler, Stocker
Clearly invested way more in my WR than TEs, but they are both starters and should see most of the passes to TE on their respective teams. Now that may not be a lot, so maybe my hopes of each one approaching 40 receptions may be tough to accomplish.
PK: Gostkowski, Hauschka
They are starters without much competition and should get a few bonus playoff points, which is what you want to get from your kickers.
DEF: Rams, Panthers
Didn't feel like investing the capital to take a top defense, and after that I felt that there really was not of value add and opted just to wait. Carolina isn't great but finished 18th last year. As last round picks go, I was fearing worse.
Overall, I think the strength of my scoring will be my WRs and I think I will get enough from the other spots to stay in the hunt. Not every pick can be a Top 5 pick, so you have to get health and scoring throughout the draft. Anyone can get hurt at any time, but avoiding 0's will be key for everyone.
You can't go wrong with Manning and what appears to be a great chance of playing 18 or 19 games with the best WR corps in the league. Didn't really love the other options.
The Raiders never seem to have anyone good throwing the ball or catching it, yet in recent years have put up decent (middle half to top two thirds) in QB production in these leagues. They ranked 16th and 23rd the past couple of years.
RB: Bell, Green-Ellis, Thomas, Woodhead
IMO, if you don't get one of the uber backs, you are better off waiting for guys that score some points before the waive of back ups and lottery tickets hits. I think the sweet spot comes from 100-150 point backs, which are generally available mid rounds . . . guys in the RB20 - RB 35 range.
Bell should be a workhorse for PIT, and even if he doesn't break off many long runs, I can see him getting 1,000 yards with a marginal ypc. BJGE will probably drop off some, but he should still get me those 100 points I look to see from a RB. Pierre Thomas has had consistent years in NO and typically scores in that 100-120 point range. Mathews looks to be in a RBBC in SD, so Woodhead should also be around 100 points again.
WR: Amendola. Bess, Broyles, Garcon, AJohnson, Welker
I still think I got 3 potential 100 catch players in Amendola, Andre Johnson, and Welker once you factor in the playoffs. Broyles and Garcon have shown flashes but need to stay on the field. Bess could get a bunch of underneath catches in CLE for not a lot of yards, but with PPR scoring and one of the last WR off the board, he could still get 100 points on the season if he can get 40-45 catches.
TE: Housler, Stocker
Clearly invested way more in my WR than TEs, but they are both starters and should see most of the passes to TE on their respective teams. Now that may not be a lot, so maybe my hopes of each one approaching 40 receptions may be tough to accomplish.
PK: Gostkowski, Hauschka
They are starters without much competition and should get a few bonus playoff points, which is what you want to get from your kickers.
DEF: Rams, Panthers
Didn't feel like investing the capital to take a top defense, and after that I felt that there really was not of value add and opted just to wait. Carolina isn't great but finished 18th last year. As last round picks go, I was fearing worse.
Overall, I think the strength of my scoring will be my WRs and I think I will get enough from the other spots to stay in the hunt. Not every pick can be a Top 5 pick, so you have to get health and scoring throughout the draft. Anyone can get hurt at any time, but avoiding 0's will be key for everyone.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Stinkin' Ref I really do not have any disagreement with the relative value of RB compared to other positions in this league and what I decided to, as I said had a bit more to do with wanting to employ the squeeze than thinking it was a winning strategy or good thing to do.
Another thing that happened is some of us who passed on WR until late got squeezed ourselves by several teams who opted to take their 6th WR before some of us had our 4th. So that makes the last picks very slim pickings. I noticed this as I was looking at my last turn here and how many teams could take another WR. There were only a couple still needing them like myself this late in the draft. I think I did just fine with recent pick of Terrance Williams though. If my last 3 WR picks can at least put up some numbers then the advantage of taking Gore on the way back round 4 can pay off for me. Otherwise it is all for naught. I will talk about this some more when I do team write up. The better options to Gore for this format may have been Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph instead of Gore. It just was not as much fun.
Another thing that happened is some of us who passed on WR until late got squeezed ourselves by several teams who opted to take their 6th WR before some of us had our 4th. So that makes the last picks very slim pickings. I noticed this as I was looking at my last turn here and how many teams could take another WR. There were only a couple still needing them like myself this late in the draft. I think I did just fine with recent pick of Terrance Williams though. If my last 3 WR picks can at least put up some numbers then the advantage of taking Gore on the way back round 4 can pay off for me. Otherwise it is all for naught. I will talk about this some more when I do team write up. The better options to Gore for this format may have been Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph instead of Gore. It just was not as much fun.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
not sure about anybody else, but for me, the most fun is winning.....so I usually go for the "better option".....second place is the first loser...not much fun in that
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rzrback77
Footballguy
Team Holloway
QBs - St. Louis Rams and Miami Dolphins - I was really expecting the quarterbacks to go slower than in year's past simply because of the general focus NFL wide on throwing the ball better and more often. Whereas, the top tier used to seem like five or less, this year it seems twelve deep and the drop-off from QB13 down to QB20 or so is not steep. I was hoping to wait until the tenth round or later, but that plan was dashed. Grabbed these two in the 8th and 9th rounds as QB21 and QB24. I do expect them to outperform their draft position, but overall I am at a disadvantage to a lot of teams here.
RBs - Lynch, Morris, David WIlson, and Joseph Randle - Probably overspent by drafting running backs in the 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounds but took players I value, especially in non-ppr and with the depth at wide receiver was hoping to not get burned really bad taking those players later. Lynch at RB5 on an anticipated playoff team, Morris at RB9 both seemed like good picks. David Wilson at RB20 I really liked also and the running backs started flying off the board after that. Waited long and grabbed Randle in the 14th as I am not a Murray believer. Might should have waited on Randle a bit longer.
WRs - Nicks, Boldin, Blackmon, A. Dobson, G. Tate and Jacoby Jones - Started late with these guys. Definitely a fan of Nicks in the 4th and Boldin in the 7th. SF almost a certain playoff team and the Giants a possibility. After that, I tried to balance playoff potential with players that I value. Blackmon is a four-week zero with little playoff hope, so he will have to come through in weeks 5 through 17 or I made a bad choice. Dobson and Tate (particularly with Harvin potentially out) were value picks on potential playoff teams. Jacoby Jones played well down the stretch and the Ravens definitely need some receivers to step up and he is also on a team with playoff hopes, but he has been a consistent disappointment in the regular season.
TEs - Gronkowski and Gresham - Gronkowski is a bargain IF he returns healthy, so I am counting on him playing early and fully healed. I really like Gresham in 2013 more than the majority of folks and expect Cincinnati to run a lot of double tight end sets giving both Gresham and Eifert opportunities. We'll see how that unfolds.
DST - San Diego and Tennessee - Willing to wait so just hoping not to get left far behind here.
PKs - Hartley who plays in a dome for a great offensive team so I like that pick. My second will be whoever is left for me with my last pick. I do have faith in two guys remaining so I will be surprised if I am left with a zero for one of my kickers, but agree there is that potential.
Overall, I like the team. I have several players with playoff hopes and that I value above their ADP, so I am looking forward to how this plays out. Although it appears that I was in concert with OM and Bia with the run on running backs early, my selections were more about value than creating a void as that void never appears with running backs as the majority of drafters will wait and wait even through runs on that position in these leagues with this scoring.
QBs - St. Louis Rams and Miami Dolphins - I was really expecting the quarterbacks to go slower than in year's past simply because of the general focus NFL wide on throwing the ball better and more often. Whereas, the top tier used to seem like five or less, this year it seems twelve deep and the drop-off from QB13 down to QB20 or so is not steep. I was hoping to wait until the tenth round or later, but that plan was dashed. Grabbed these two in the 8th and 9th rounds as QB21 and QB24. I do expect them to outperform their draft position, but overall I am at a disadvantage to a lot of teams here.
RBs - Lynch, Morris, David WIlson, and Joseph Randle - Probably overspent by drafting running backs in the 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounds but took players I value, especially in non-ppr and with the depth at wide receiver was hoping to not get burned really bad taking those players later. Lynch at RB5 on an anticipated playoff team, Morris at RB9 both seemed like good picks. David Wilson at RB20 I really liked also and the running backs started flying off the board after that. Waited long and grabbed Randle in the 14th as I am not a Murray believer. Might should have waited on Randle a bit longer.
WRs - Nicks, Boldin, Blackmon, A. Dobson, G. Tate and Jacoby Jones - Started late with these guys. Definitely a fan of Nicks in the 4th and Boldin in the 7th. SF almost a certain playoff team and the Giants a possibility. After that, I tried to balance playoff potential with players that I value. Blackmon is a four-week zero with little playoff hope, so he will have to come through in weeks 5 through 17 or I made a bad choice. Dobson and Tate (particularly with Harvin potentially out) were value picks on potential playoff teams. Jacoby Jones played well down the stretch and the Ravens definitely need some receivers to step up and he is also on a team with playoff hopes, but he has been a consistent disappointment in the regular season.
TEs - Gronkowski and Gresham - Gronkowski is a bargain IF he returns healthy, so I am counting on him playing early and fully healed. I really like Gresham in 2013 more than the majority of folks and expect Cincinnati to run a lot of double tight end sets giving both Gresham and Eifert opportunities. We'll see how that unfolds.
DST - San Diego and Tennessee - Willing to wait so just hoping not to get left far behind here.
PKs - Hartley who plays in a dome for a great offensive team so I like that pick. My second will be whoever is left for me with my last pick. I do have faith in two guys remaining so I will be surprised if I am left with a zero for one of my kickers, but agree there is that potential.
Overall, I like the team. I have several players with playoff hopes and that I value above their ADP, so I am looking forward to how this plays out. Although it appears that I was in concert with OM and Bia with the run on running backs early, my selections were more about value than creating a void as that void never appears with running backs as the majority of drafters will wait and wait even through runs on that position in these leagues with this scoring.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You are right of course. I pretty much gave myself that advice before I drafted against it anyways. I think if I would have done 10 or so mock drafts prior to this one that I may have gotten that
out of my system. But I didn't and got caught up in the moment of what was appealing at the time, mainly just because I wanted to see the fall out from it and to mess with you guys at the turn. 
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I understand....I'm still somewhat of an old school stud RB theory guy...in most other regular leagues I still try to fill my flex spots with RB's that get a good amount of touches....it's not unusual for me to take 3-4 RB's in the first 5-6 rounds....yes even a 4th, because I like the bye week/injury coverage and keeping that flex filled....and there is that extra element of the rest of the league getting squeezed....those are normally 12 teamers and obviously not this type of PPR format....You are right of course. I pretty much gave myself that advice before I drafted against it anyways. I think if I would have done 10 or so mock drafts prior to this one that I may have gotten that
as has been mentioned several times, almost any strategy can win....and if someone ends up with say 3 of the top 15 backs or something, it could amount to a huge advantage that would be tough to overcome....especially if mixed with some decent TE and QB scoring....but if Tom Crabtree is putting up 10 more points than the last of the RB's starters, that is something you can't really ignore....whatever is happening above him is proabably pretty significant.....ADP had a monster season yet didn't finish in the top 20 in scoring in this format....only 11 RB's finished in the top 100....
it's cool to see different strategies and I was really just busting your stones....but I will say, while you thought it was fun to put on the squeeze, I was actually glad to see the RB's flying off the board...and would have liked to see more....the only bad thing about a "few" teams being loaded at RB is that there are more teams not loaded at RB that focused elsewhere....so there may be quite the battle of the "punt the RB position" guys...we'll see how it all shakes out....
good luck...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Very happy I landed Stedman Bailey for my last WR pick. Which may cause my impulsive plan to pay off. I can see Bailey getting 40-60 catches as a rookie in the Rams offense if they actually do increase their passing attempts.
So
6.04 Texans QB 14 - Playoffs and increased passing proficency with the addition of Hopkins hopefully gets me some solid points here.
7.13 Cardinals QB 20 - Fitzgerald, Floyd and Roberts benefit from the addition of Carson Palmer and improved offensive line with Cooper and recent addition of Eric Winston at tackle.
I think I got good value at my QBs for being QB14 and 20 taken. I did use some relatively high picks to get these guys and I do not have the best QB group in the league. But I think both of these QB situations can outperform several teams and I did not want to be giving up 200-300pts to the best teams at this position by getting stuck with a poor QB performer. I totally agree there are more viable QB in the league right now due to the increase in passing attempts across the board. Getting stuck with Ponder or Jax QB is just too much to make up for me to pass on QB any more than I did. The Cardinals were pretty much the last QB available where I made that pick that I had projected for over 4k passing. I do think the Rams, Bucs and Chargers, could score similarly to Palmer though and I would have waited another round if I thought I could still get one of those. As I already talked about before I was expecting more picks at the position before it came back to me and I was not sure if I would be able to get one of those 4 final 4k upside type QB situations. Some may think Miami could be in that group as well, but I am skeptical of that. Very happy with Palmer/Stanton with Fitz and those WR to work with.
2.04 Trent Richardson - I have Richardson ranked as the 2nd best RB in 2013. I do not expect playoffs for the Browns but I love the whole situation for Richardson and was impressed with what I saw from him last season playing through rib injury. With Norv Turner now at OC I think they get the maximum out of what Richardson is capable of.
3.13 Steven Jackson - I have been a fan of Jackson since he came into the league. Not in an ideal situation but one of the best RB in the league over the last decade. The playoff potential with Atlanta is very good and I think Jackson has a career year at age 30.
4.04 Frank Gore - SF a likely playoff team so bonus games are expected here as well as with Jackson.
8.04 DeAngelo Williams - This late in the draft I think Williams is a player who could help me win the total points title. He is not someone I wanted to fall into enemy hands. I do not expect Stewart to be taking carries from Williams this season and he has a good year with Kalil back healthy at center.
I think I may have the 2nd best RB group in the league because of adding Williams to my top 3. But 3 of them are 30 years old so the odds are one of them under performs my expectation. I really like all 3 of these guys for 2013 though.
1.13 AJ Green - I think Green is in that top tier of WR. I would have preferred Demaryius Thomas because of the greater playoff potential, for the same reason some might think Julio Jones would be a better pick than Green, and perhaps that is correct. However I think the Bengals can make the playoffs too and I am actually more worried about Julio's competition for targets than I am Green's. We shall see. This early pick at WR is part of what helped me to decide to slough the position for awhile, due to the depth.
9.13 Michael Floyd - I think Floyd takes advantage of improved situation in Arizona with Palmer and Oline upgrades. Floyd in his 2nd season should be able to emerge as a quality WR2-3 and a good chance at 60+ catches.
16.04 Jason Avant - I didn't want to wait this long at the WR position. But because of my early RB/QB picks, then needing to address the TE position as a form of stop gap emergency and similarly with the Defense/Kickers. I waited forever. Avant may be the worst WR I drafted and I took him with my 3rd pick in bit of over-reaction to Maclin injury. I am not sure if Avant will be a big part of Kelly's offense or not. Would feel better about this if it were still Andy Reid.
17.13 Terrance Williams - He is 3rd string WR for the Cowboys and a rookie. This is the 269th pick of the draft though. I think he could contribute 30 or so receptions. I like him better with Austin out of the picture obviously. Likely one of those drafted a year too early type of picks.
18.04 Stedman Bailey - Rookie WR for the Rams who I expect to be busier than people think. I actually like his chances for 60 receptions more than Avant or Williams.
This is a poor group of WR. If I am correct about Palmer then I think the Floyd pick will work out pretty well. I am just trying to duck zero's with my late picks and not sure if I accomplished that. I do like all of these players upside but I was hoping something a bit better may have fallen to me. Several teams did pick their 6th WR before I looked at the group that led me to taking Avant. There likely were better picks though. I was scraping the barrel.
5.13 Dwayne Allen - I was somewhat hoping Gates might make it back to me here but he didn't. I talked myself into trying to get the Colts TE pair. The other pair I considered was the Bengals TE and perhaps if I took Gresham instead that might have worked out. I notice Eifert went very soon after him as well though, so hard to pull off a pair here. Norseman sniped Fleener which I think would have solidified the value of those picks and I do expect that to be where targets are going for the Colts in 2013 while Luck diversifies away from so many targets to Wayne. Heath Miller perhaps the more solid pick here and forget the pairs, he is recovering from injury though and I didn't like that.
10.04 James Casey 29th TE - I really like Casey and I think he will take advantage of opportunity with Chip Kelley and the Eagles. Very versatile player who was under utilized in Houston. I do not expect much 40-60 receptions depending on how much targets are split between the TE. The pick here was actually more because I had him ranked higher than the WR options available at this point.
11.13 Travis Kelce 34th TE - I really like Kelce and think he could be an impact player as a rookie. But he is rookie so we shall see. The pick was more due to not liking the WR value.
These TE are too young and huge risks. I like all 3 players a lot but I think I will need some luck here to not get outpointed by about 200-300 points by the top TE teams. At least there are only a couple of those.
12.04 Ravens defense - Although Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are gone, I was impressed with how well the defense played last season as I was expecting a fall off. I absolutely loved their 1st 2 draft picks and I do not know how Ozzie keeps doing this year after year but he does. I under estimated the Ravens offense last season. I have some playoff potential here and a unit that should perform very well despite the loss of 2 stars.
13.13 Vikings defense - For my 2nd defense I wanted the Vikings or the Rams because of the return stars they added in the draft and also both having young improving defenses. These teams have a shot at the playoffs as well. Teams like the Falcons have a much better chance at that but I do not think their defense is nearly the same quality.
Defenses are very random but I did not want to be giving that as an advantage to other teams because a bottom defense gives up a lot of points.
14.04 Mike Nugent - I mostly do not want a zero here. Nugent has some playoff potential and been one of the better kickers when healthy.
15.13 Josh Scobe - The Jaguars are a bad team but Scobe is a very good kicker and perhaps one of their better offensive weapons. Again though I mostly just done want a zero here.
I think there are a few other rosters I would prefer to mine. I liked rzrback and fiddles drafts a bit better than mine as their picks had more balance and less reaches on young players. My dynasty perspective is hard to shake.
So
6.04 Texans QB 14 - Playoffs and increased passing proficency with the addition of Hopkins hopefully gets me some solid points here.
7.13 Cardinals QB 20 - Fitzgerald, Floyd and Roberts benefit from the addition of Carson Palmer and improved offensive line with Cooper and recent addition of Eric Winston at tackle.
I think I got good value at my QBs for being QB14 and 20 taken. I did use some relatively high picks to get these guys and I do not have the best QB group in the league. But I think both of these QB situations can outperform several teams and I did not want to be giving up 200-300pts to the best teams at this position by getting stuck with a poor QB performer. I totally agree there are more viable QB in the league right now due to the increase in passing attempts across the board. Getting stuck with Ponder or Jax QB is just too much to make up for me to pass on QB any more than I did. The Cardinals were pretty much the last QB available where I made that pick that I had projected for over 4k passing. I do think the Rams, Bucs and Chargers, could score similarly to Palmer though and I would have waited another round if I thought I could still get one of those. As I already talked about before I was expecting more picks at the position before it came back to me and I was not sure if I would be able to get one of those 4 final 4k upside type QB situations. Some may think Miami could be in that group as well, but I am skeptical of that. Very happy with Palmer/Stanton with Fitz and those WR to work with.
2.04 Trent Richardson - I have Richardson ranked as the 2nd best RB in 2013. I do not expect playoffs for the Browns but I love the whole situation for Richardson and was impressed with what I saw from him last season playing through rib injury. With Norv Turner now at OC I think they get the maximum out of what Richardson is capable of.
3.13 Steven Jackson - I have been a fan of Jackson since he came into the league. Not in an ideal situation but one of the best RB in the league over the last decade. The playoff potential with Atlanta is very good and I think Jackson has a career year at age 30.
4.04 Frank Gore - SF a likely playoff team so bonus games are expected here as well as with Jackson.
8.04 DeAngelo Williams - This late in the draft I think Williams is a player who could help me win the total points title. He is not someone I wanted to fall into enemy hands. I do not expect Stewart to be taking carries from Williams this season and he has a good year with Kalil back healthy at center.
I think I may have the 2nd best RB group in the league because of adding Williams to my top 3. But 3 of them are 30 years old so the odds are one of them under performs my expectation. I really like all 3 of these guys for 2013 though.
1.13 AJ Green - I think Green is in that top tier of WR. I would have preferred Demaryius Thomas because of the greater playoff potential, for the same reason some might think Julio Jones would be a better pick than Green, and perhaps that is correct. However I think the Bengals can make the playoffs too and I am actually more worried about Julio's competition for targets than I am Green's. We shall see. This early pick at WR is part of what helped me to decide to slough the position for awhile, due to the depth.
9.13 Michael Floyd - I think Floyd takes advantage of improved situation in Arizona with Palmer and Oline upgrades. Floyd in his 2nd season should be able to emerge as a quality WR2-3 and a good chance at 60+ catches.
16.04 Jason Avant - I didn't want to wait this long at the WR position. But because of my early RB/QB picks, then needing to address the TE position as a form of stop gap emergency and similarly with the Defense/Kickers. I waited forever. Avant may be the worst WR I drafted and I took him with my 3rd pick in bit of over-reaction to Maclin injury. I am not sure if Avant will be a big part of Kelly's offense or not. Would feel better about this if it were still Andy Reid.
17.13 Terrance Williams - He is 3rd string WR for the Cowboys and a rookie. This is the 269th pick of the draft though. I think he could contribute 30 or so receptions. I like him better with Austin out of the picture obviously. Likely one of those drafted a year too early type of picks.
18.04 Stedman Bailey - Rookie WR for the Rams who I expect to be busier than people think. I actually like his chances for 60 receptions more than Avant or Williams.
This is a poor group of WR. If I am correct about Palmer then I think the Floyd pick will work out pretty well. I am just trying to duck zero's with my late picks and not sure if I accomplished that. I do like all of these players upside but I was hoping something a bit better may have fallen to me. Several teams did pick their 6th WR before I looked at the group that led me to taking Avant. There likely were better picks though. I was scraping the barrel.
5.13 Dwayne Allen - I was somewhat hoping Gates might make it back to me here but he didn't. I talked myself into trying to get the Colts TE pair. The other pair I considered was the Bengals TE and perhaps if I took Gresham instead that might have worked out. I notice Eifert went very soon after him as well though, so hard to pull off a pair here. Norseman sniped Fleener which I think would have solidified the value of those picks and I do expect that to be where targets are going for the Colts in 2013 while Luck diversifies away from so many targets to Wayne. Heath Miller perhaps the more solid pick here and forget the pairs, he is recovering from injury though and I didn't like that.
10.04 James Casey 29th TE - I really like Casey and I think he will take advantage of opportunity with Chip Kelley and the Eagles. Very versatile player who was under utilized in Houston. I do not expect much 40-60 receptions depending on how much targets are split between the TE. The pick here was actually more because I had him ranked higher than the WR options available at this point.
11.13 Travis Kelce 34th TE - I really like Kelce and think he could be an impact player as a rookie. But he is rookie so we shall see. The pick was more due to not liking the WR value.
These TE are too young and huge risks. I like all 3 players a lot but I think I will need some luck here to not get outpointed by about 200-300 points by the top TE teams. At least there are only a couple of those.
12.04 Ravens defense - Although Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are gone, I was impressed with how well the defense played last season as I was expecting a fall off. I absolutely loved their 1st 2 draft picks and I do not know how Ozzie keeps doing this year after year but he does. I under estimated the Ravens offense last season. I have some playoff potential here and a unit that should perform very well despite the loss of 2 stars.
13.13 Vikings defense - For my 2nd defense I wanted the Vikings or the Rams because of the return stars they added in the draft and also both having young improving defenses. These teams have a shot at the playoffs as well. Teams like the Falcons have a much better chance at that but I do not think their defense is nearly the same quality.
Defenses are very random but I did not want to be giving that as an advantage to other teams because a bottom defense gives up a lot of points.
14.04 Mike Nugent - I mostly do not want a zero here. Nugent has some playoff potential and been one of the better kickers when healthy.
15.13 Josh Scobe - The Jaguars are a bad team but Scobe is a very good kicker and perhaps one of their better offensive weapons. Again though I mostly just done want a zero here.
I think there are a few other rosters I would prefer to mine. I liked rzrback and fiddles drafts a bit better than mine as their picks had more balance and less reaches on young players. My dynasty perspective is hard to shake.
Tau837
Footballguy
Here is my assessment of my draft:
1.4 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – 1st WR drafted. Graham is the only player I would have taken ahead of Megatron, and he was gone. Last season, Calvin averaged more points per game than every other non-QB, and only Gonzalez finished with more total points. In 2011, only Graham and Gronk were better. I was surprised and pleased to see two RBs taken before this pick, allowing me to get him.
2.13 Randall Cobb, WR, GB – 10th WR drafted. With 7 TEs already gone, I wasn’t ready to reach for one here, so I considered only WRs. Cobb finished as the #18 WR in this format last season, but I expect him to be a top 10 WR this season, thanks to more snaps and touches this year as an improved second year player, especially with Jennings gone, plus good prospects for .
3.4 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – 13th WR drafted. With 9 TEs already gone, I still wasn’t ready to reach for one here, so again I considered only WRs. I chose Nelson over Jackson, Colston, and Nicks due to his potential for more playoff points. While Nelson finished as the #32 WR in this format last season, he was the #5 WR in 2011. He missed 4 games last season and played hurt in others. I am optimistic that he will be healthier this season, and he should also get more targets with Jennings gone.
4.13 Redskins, TMQB, WAS – 12th TMQB drafted. I wasn’t planning to take a TMQB this early, but I couldn’t pass up the value of the Redskins. With RGIII a rookie last season who dealt with two injuries, and with top targets Garcon and Davis combining to miss 16 games, the Redskins TMQB had the third highest average points per game in this format and was the #6 overall scorer. Last season, the Redskins outscored the #14 TMQB by over 100 points, and it appeared to me that a dropoff at TMQB was looming. Reports are that RGIII’s rehab has him on pace for an Adrian Peterson-like recovery. There is definitely some risk associated with his recovery, and I assume that’s why the Redskins TMQB was available here. But the upside was too much to pass up.
5.4 Antonio Gates, TE, SD – 14th TE drafted. Still needing at least 2 TEs, I felt compelled to take one here. In retrospect, I may have been better off had I taken one at my 2/3 turn, even though it would have been a reach. I wasn’t thrilled to take Gates here, but I thought he was the best available. He was the #16 TE in this format last season, and I am hoping for a bit of improvement with the coaching change and offensive personnel improvements in San Diego.
6.13 Bengals, TMQB, CIN – 15th TMQB drafted. I felt that there was still a solid advantage available in taking a playoff QB rather than waiting longer on my second TMQB. I considered the Ravens, which were the #7 overall scorer last season, but they got 27% of their points in that 4 game postseason run to the Super Bowl, and I don’t see that happening again, plus they have lost Boldin and Pitta. The Bengals finished as the #14 TMQB last season, but Dalton should be better as a third year QB, and the Bengals added some weapons on offense in Bernard and Eifert. I’m counting on playoff points.
7.4 Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAX – 24th TE drafted. He was the #20 TE in this format last season, but the new Jaguars GM has stated that he was underused last season, and they intend to give him more opportunities this year. He is 29 and two years ago had 58/700/10, so there is good upside potential. I expect he will outperform this draft position.
8.13 Andre Brown, RB, NYG – 34th RB drafted. As planned, I ignored RBs for the first several rounds. At this point, I felt the value at other positions had slipped enough to take my first. I also considered Stewart and Ingram, but I felt Brown was a safer choice. Brown was the #34 RB in this format last season, despite playing only 10 games. Brown is the Giants’ goal line back, and he is very good in pass protection, so his role should be significant enough to outperform this draft position, as long as he stays healthy. Decent chance at playoff points. Plus, he went to my alma mater, N.C. State.
9.4 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – 36th RB drafted. There is obvious risk with this pick, since Stewart is still recovering from ankle surgery. He finished as the #54 RB last year, missing 7 games and playing hurt in others. But if he gets healthy and plays most or all of the season, he is a virtual lock to outperform this draft position. In 2011, despite all of Cam’s rushing production and the presence of Deangelo, Stewart was the #26 RB in this format. That’s the kind of production I’m hoping for. In retrospect, this is the only pick in my draft that I regret… I should have probably gone WR here.
10.13 Ed Dickson, TE, BAL – 30th TE drafted. I decided to lock in my flex with a third TE, and I felt Dickson was the last quality TE remaining. He finished as the #40 TE last season in this format, but in 2011 was the #16 TE. I drafted him prior to Pitta’s injury. With Boldin gone, the Ravens were saying they will play more 2 TE sets, and Dickson would have a larger role. Pitta’s injury should equate to a significant boost in production, so I got a bit lucky, though I liked Dickson here already. Playoff points seem likely.
11.4 Bears, DEF, CHI – 7th Defense drafted. I was pleasantly surprised that they were still on the board with 6 defenses already taken. They finished #1 in this format last year, and there is no reason to think they won’t again finish in the top 5.
12.13 Matt Bryant, PK, ATL – 3rd PK drafted. Bryant finished as the #1 PK last season in this format. He plays in a dome for a team with an elite offense that is a Super Bowl contender and thus likely to play multiple playoff games. For those reasons, he was my #1 PK. I prefer to take PKs relatively early in this format for two reasons. First, one or more teams tend to get stuck without a starter due to pending camp battles at the time of the draft, and it is virtually impossible to win this league giving up 100+ points in a PK spot. Second, there is a much bigger spread at PK than people tend to realize. Last season, Bryant outscored the #15 PK by 61 points and the #30 PK by 95 points. At this point in the draft, it’s much harder to gain that many points over other teams by drafting any other position.
13.4 Kai Forbath, PK, WAS – 8th PK drafted. As expected, the PK run was in full effect, and I did not want to wait another 25 picks to get my second, and risk getting stuck as described above. Forbath didn’t play until the Redskins’ 6th game last season. He ended the season with the 9th best scoring average for PKs in this format and projecting his pace for an additional 5 games would have had him finishing #9 overall. He only missed one FG last season and made 12 from 40+ yards, so the team may give him more deep attempts this year. And the offense could be better, with both Garcon and Davis healthy. Barring injury, Forbath seems like a lock to finish among the top 10 PKs.
14.13 Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR – 66th WR drafted. He finished the as #56 WR last season in this format, despite missing two games and playing at less than 100% in at least one other. He has improved each year since he entered the NFL; if that trend continues, he will be good value here. He is also playing for a contract. Hoping for 150+ points.
15.4 Jeremy Kerley, WR, NYJ – 71st WR drafted. He finished as the #44 WR last season in this format. I’m very surprised he slid this far, with Keller gone and Holmes still recovering. Kerley stands a very good chance to be the #1 target in the Jets offense. Barring injury, this pick is a steal.
16.13 Jets, DEF, NYJ – 21st DEF drafted. They finished as the #16 DEF last season in this format, following a #6 finish in 2011. Rex Ryan has proven he is a good defensive coach, and I have every reason to believe they will finish in the top half of defenses this season, which would make this a value pick.
17.4 Ryan Williams, RB, ARI – 61st RB drafted. This is an upside pick all the way. If Williams stays healthy, his talent should get him enough opportunity to score 75+ fantasy points. Solid value here.
18.13 Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR – 63rd RB drafted. Tolbert finished as the #39 RB last season in this format. Given that Stewart is hurt right now, and Carolina will supposedly deemphasize the read option in favor of a traditional running attack, Tolbert has considerable upside at this point in the draft. And I drafted Stewart… if Stewart falters, hopefully I’ll recover some of his points from Tolbert.
This team is a contender.
1.4 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – 1st WR drafted. Graham is the only player I would have taken ahead of Megatron, and he was gone. Last season, Calvin averaged more points per game than every other non-QB, and only Gonzalez finished with more total points. In 2011, only Graham and Gronk were better. I was surprised and pleased to see two RBs taken before this pick, allowing me to get him.
2.13 Randall Cobb, WR, GB – 10th WR drafted. With 7 TEs already gone, I wasn’t ready to reach for one here, so I considered only WRs. Cobb finished as the #18 WR in this format last season, but I expect him to be a top 10 WR this season, thanks to more snaps and touches this year as an improved second year player, especially with Jennings gone, plus good prospects for .
3.4 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – 13th WR drafted. With 9 TEs already gone, I still wasn’t ready to reach for one here, so again I considered only WRs. I chose Nelson over Jackson, Colston, and Nicks due to his potential for more playoff points. While Nelson finished as the #32 WR in this format last season, he was the #5 WR in 2011. He missed 4 games last season and played hurt in others. I am optimistic that he will be healthier this season, and he should also get more targets with Jennings gone.
4.13 Redskins, TMQB, WAS – 12th TMQB drafted. I wasn’t planning to take a TMQB this early, but I couldn’t pass up the value of the Redskins. With RGIII a rookie last season who dealt with two injuries, and with top targets Garcon and Davis combining to miss 16 games, the Redskins TMQB had the third highest average points per game in this format and was the #6 overall scorer. Last season, the Redskins outscored the #14 TMQB by over 100 points, and it appeared to me that a dropoff at TMQB was looming. Reports are that RGIII’s rehab has him on pace for an Adrian Peterson-like recovery. There is definitely some risk associated with his recovery, and I assume that’s why the Redskins TMQB was available here. But the upside was too much to pass up.
5.4 Antonio Gates, TE, SD – 14th TE drafted. Still needing at least 2 TEs, I felt compelled to take one here. In retrospect, I may have been better off had I taken one at my 2/3 turn, even though it would have been a reach. I wasn’t thrilled to take Gates here, but I thought he was the best available. He was the #16 TE in this format last season, and I am hoping for a bit of improvement with the coaching change and offensive personnel improvements in San Diego.
6.13 Bengals, TMQB, CIN – 15th TMQB drafted. I felt that there was still a solid advantage available in taking a playoff QB rather than waiting longer on my second TMQB. I considered the Ravens, which were the #7 overall scorer last season, but they got 27% of their points in that 4 game postseason run to the Super Bowl, and I don’t see that happening again, plus they have lost Boldin and Pitta. The Bengals finished as the #14 TMQB last season, but Dalton should be better as a third year QB, and the Bengals added some weapons on offense in Bernard and Eifert. I’m counting on playoff points.
7.4 Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAX – 24th TE drafted. He was the #20 TE in this format last season, but the new Jaguars GM has stated that he was underused last season, and they intend to give him more opportunities this year. He is 29 and two years ago had 58/700/10, so there is good upside potential. I expect he will outperform this draft position.
8.13 Andre Brown, RB, NYG – 34th RB drafted. As planned, I ignored RBs for the first several rounds. At this point, I felt the value at other positions had slipped enough to take my first. I also considered Stewart and Ingram, but I felt Brown was a safer choice. Brown was the #34 RB in this format last season, despite playing only 10 games. Brown is the Giants’ goal line back, and he is very good in pass protection, so his role should be significant enough to outperform this draft position, as long as he stays healthy. Decent chance at playoff points. Plus, he went to my alma mater, N.C. State.
9.4 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – 36th RB drafted. There is obvious risk with this pick, since Stewart is still recovering from ankle surgery. He finished as the #54 RB last year, missing 7 games and playing hurt in others. But if he gets healthy and plays most or all of the season, he is a virtual lock to outperform this draft position. In 2011, despite all of Cam’s rushing production and the presence of Deangelo, Stewart was the #26 RB in this format. That’s the kind of production I’m hoping for. In retrospect, this is the only pick in my draft that I regret… I should have probably gone WR here.
10.13 Ed Dickson, TE, BAL – 30th TE drafted. I decided to lock in my flex with a third TE, and I felt Dickson was the last quality TE remaining. He finished as the #40 TE last season in this format, but in 2011 was the #16 TE. I drafted him prior to Pitta’s injury. With Boldin gone, the Ravens were saying they will play more 2 TE sets, and Dickson would have a larger role. Pitta’s injury should equate to a significant boost in production, so I got a bit lucky, though I liked Dickson here already. Playoff points seem likely.
11.4 Bears, DEF, CHI – 7th Defense drafted. I was pleasantly surprised that they were still on the board with 6 defenses already taken. They finished #1 in this format last year, and there is no reason to think they won’t again finish in the top 5.
12.13 Matt Bryant, PK, ATL – 3rd PK drafted. Bryant finished as the #1 PK last season in this format. He plays in a dome for a team with an elite offense that is a Super Bowl contender and thus likely to play multiple playoff games. For those reasons, he was my #1 PK. I prefer to take PKs relatively early in this format for two reasons. First, one or more teams tend to get stuck without a starter due to pending camp battles at the time of the draft, and it is virtually impossible to win this league giving up 100+ points in a PK spot. Second, there is a much bigger spread at PK than people tend to realize. Last season, Bryant outscored the #15 PK by 61 points and the #30 PK by 95 points. At this point in the draft, it’s much harder to gain that many points over other teams by drafting any other position.
13.4 Kai Forbath, PK, WAS – 8th PK drafted. As expected, the PK run was in full effect, and I did not want to wait another 25 picks to get my second, and risk getting stuck as described above. Forbath didn’t play until the Redskins’ 6th game last season. He ended the season with the 9th best scoring average for PKs in this format and projecting his pace for an additional 5 games would have had him finishing #9 overall. He only missed one FG last season and made 12 from 40+ yards, so the team may give him more deep attempts this year. And the offense could be better, with both Garcon and Davis healthy. Barring injury, Forbath seems like a lock to finish among the top 10 PKs.
14.13 Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR – 66th WR drafted. He finished the as #56 WR last season in this format, despite missing two games and playing at less than 100% in at least one other. He has improved each year since he entered the NFL; if that trend continues, he will be good value here. He is also playing for a contract. Hoping for 150+ points.
15.4 Jeremy Kerley, WR, NYJ – 71st WR drafted. He finished as the #44 WR last season in this format. I’m very surprised he slid this far, with Keller gone and Holmes still recovering. Kerley stands a very good chance to be the #1 target in the Jets offense. Barring injury, this pick is a steal.
16.13 Jets, DEF, NYJ – 21st DEF drafted. They finished as the #16 DEF last season in this format, following a #6 finish in 2011. Rex Ryan has proven he is a good defensive coach, and I have every reason to believe they will finish in the top half of defenses this season, which would make this a value pick.
17.4 Ryan Williams, RB, ARI – 61st RB drafted. This is an upside pick all the way. If Williams stays healthy, his talent should get him enough opportunity to score 75+ fantasy points. Solid value here.
18.13 Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR – 63rd RB drafted. Tolbert finished as the #39 RB last season in this format. Given that Stewart is hurt right now, and Carolina will supposedly deemphasize the read option in favor of a traditional running attack, Tolbert has considerable upside at this point in the draft. And I drafted Stewart… if Stewart falters, hopefully I’ll recover some of his points from Tolbert.
This team is a contender.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
reading JWB's post it got me thinking...and maybe this deserves a thread of it's own...but
he mentions CIN (Dalton pick) and BAL (Dickson) pick as likely playoff points.....so that means one of the wildcards is represented here....with PIT on the outside looking in and CLE not even at the window.....
East: NE?...are the other 3 REALLY gonna challenge
North: CIN/BAL/PIT
South: HOU/IND...?
West: DEN
I guess to me...the only locks in the AFC are really NE and DEN...I know some think NE falls back but I don't...the North seems up for grabs...would we really be surprised to see any of those 3 win...?
NFC
East: wtf knows...could be anybody
North: GB/CHI....DET?
South: ATL/NO/...an improved TB..CAR surprise
West: SF/SEA...
to me....SF may be the only lock....
playoff points....hmmm...it's nice to get them and I guess projecting for them can be a nice tie breaker....super bowl teams get you at least 3 extra games, almost 1/4 of a season stats...playoff bye weeks for the TOP teams and it being a one and done scenerio for many of the others....hmmm...wonder how many times the lead has changed after the regular season ends.....meaning it was playoff games that won it for somebody....think I might have been on the wrong side of this once or twice....I factor it in a little, just wondering if I should do it more or less.....leaning towards less but not sure....
he mentions CIN (Dalton pick) and BAL (Dickson) pick as likely playoff points.....so that means one of the wildcards is represented here....with PIT on the outside looking in and CLE not even at the window.....
East: NE?...are the other 3 REALLY gonna challenge
North: CIN/BAL/PIT
South: HOU/IND...?
West: DEN
I guess to me...the only locks in the AFC are really NE and DEN...I know some think NE falls back but I don't...the North seems up for grabs...would we really be surprised to see any of those 3 win...?
NFC
East: wtf knows...could be anybody
North: GB/CHI....DET?
South: ATL/NO/...an improved TB..CAR surprise
West: SF/SEA...
to me....SF may be the only lock....
playoff points....hmmm...it's nice to get them and I guess projecting for them can be a nice tie breaker....super bowl teams get you at least 3 extra games, almost 1/4 of a season stats...playoff bye weeks for the TOP teams and it being a one and done scenerio for many of the others....hmmm...wonder how many times the lead has changed after the regular season ends.....meaning it was playoff games that won it for somebody....think I might have been on the wrong side of this once or twice....I factor it in a little, just wondering if I should do it more or less.....leaning towards less but not sure....
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
bia...not trying to be a d-bag in any way....but after reading your breakdown IMO you will struggle big time everywhere besides RB...question mark city next to anybody not named AJ Green....
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I found the description of Stedman Bailey interesting. The Rams are certainly a work in progress, and they produced as the 18th best passing team in terms of yardage and TD last year. Maybe I am wrong, but Bailey could be the 6th receiving option after Cook, Austin, Quick, Givens, and Pettis.
As for trying to decipher the playoff picture, almost every season sees 3 teams with losing records make the playoffs the following year (not counting teams that were .500). EVERY YEAR it looks like most of the playoff teams from the previous year will repeat, but not all of them will. Personally, even though the Colts were a playoff team last year, their record was better than their peripheral stats. They could easily have been 7-9 (based on the numbers), so I think they could be on the outside looking in. MIA made a lot of moves, it will depend how things mesh as to whether they are for real.
People cite all the Pro Bowl players on the Chiefs, and maybe Andy Reid is a great coach and Alex Smith is a better QB then most think he is. I think some of even the bottom feeders could catch some breaks, some blown calls that go their way, and stay healthy and finagle a 9-7 record if things play out right, even if they are not great teams (see the Colts from last year some how winning 11 games).
On the NFC side, anyone in the East could win the division. SF and SEA look like they should again be fighting for the division title. The Packers and Falcons always look like they are playoff teams. But I would not rule out the Bears, Saints, Rams, or Buccaneers (if Revis makes the defense relevant again).
Overall, the teams I would think are unlikely to make the playoffs are BUF, CLE, JAC, OAK, DET, CAR, ARI, NYJ, PHI, but you never can tell what will happen . . .
As for trying to decipher the playoff picture, almost every season sees 3 teams with losing records make the playoffs the following year (not counting teams that were .500). EVERY YEAR it looks like most of the playoff teams from the previous year will repeat, but not all of them will. Personally, even though the Colts were a playoff team last year, their record was better than their peripheral stats. They could easily have been 7-9 (based on the numbers), so I think they could be on the outside looking in. MIA made a lot of moves, it will depend how things mesh as to whether they are for real.
People cite all the Pro Bowl players on the Chiefs, and maybe Andy Reid is a great coach and Alex Smith is a better QB then most think he is. I think some of even the bottom feeders could catch some breaks, some blown calls that go their way, and stay healthy and finagle a 9-7 record if things play out right, even if they are not great teams (see the Colts from last year some how winning 11 games).
On the NFC side, anyone in the East could win the division. SF and SEA look like they should again be fighting for the division title. The Packers and Falcons always look like they are playoff teams. But I would not rule out the Bears, Saints, Rams, or Buccaneers (if Revis makes the defense relevant again).
Overall, the teams I would think are unlikely to make the playoffs are BUF, CLE, JAC, OAK, DET, CAR, ARI, NYJ, PHI, but you never can tell what will happen . . .
OldMilwaukee
IBL Representative
Stinkin Ref said:
Agree with it all, and put we down with the ones who believe NE won't even make the playoffs this year (sorry David).
Tau837
Footballguy
Without having tracked it and without looking, I would guess that the winner leading at the end of the regular season and throughout the playoffs happens less than 50% of the time. Two examples involving my teams:Stinkin Ref said:
In 2011 (League 2), I was leading Duckboy by 82 points after the regular season. After playoff week 1, I was leading by 87 points. Then Gronkowski scored 52.5 points in playoff week 2 for Duckboy... after playoff week 2, I was still leading by 22 points, but all of my players had been eliminated. Duckboy ended up beating me by 50 points.
In 2007 (League 3), I was in 3rd place trailing the leader by 57 points after the regular season, and Duckboy was 34 points ahead of me in 2nd place. After playoff week 1, I was leading by 12 points, and Duckboy was in 3rd place. After playoff week 2, I was leading by 22, with Duckboy still in 3rd place. After playoff week 3, Duckboy had taken the lead over my team by 1.06 points, and it came down to Burress (Duckboy) vs. Ben Watson (JWB) in the Super Bowl for the title. Duckboy won by ~10 points.
Duckboy...
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hey I am not entirely happy with what I ended up with here but you guys are kind of difficult to draft against and I have not drafted in like 3 years. I will show you my draft from league 6 and you will see what I would have liked to do but you guys did not cooperate with me.Stinkin Ref said:
Jason Witten
Demaryius Thomas
Frank Gore
Owen Daniels
Antonio Gates
Steve Smith
Cardinals QB
DeAngelo Williams
Michael Floyd
Kendall Wright
Ravens D/ST
Vikings D/ST
So you see some of the same players but they let me have TE picks I liked. That does not happen for me at the 13 hole against you guys.
I think my QBs are a strength. May not look like it from your perspective having Brady and Luck but I think they will give me more points than most teams get from their pair.
WR is a very deep position was part of the reason I passed so long. I had several turns where I just did not like the value and honestly there just are not many WR in the league right now who excite me. Passing has become so prevalent that there are many more players to choose from. I actually think I did alright there aside from the Avant pick which I am not that excited about.
I think it is funny that NO ONE is picking the Vikings as a possible playoff team. I think the NFC is a more difficult division right now than the AFC. Playoff expectations-
AFC Broncos/Patriots/Texans/Ravens/Bengals/Colts
NFC 9ers/Falcons/Saints/Vikings/Giants/Packers but in the NFC I can see many more teams making it.
I also think I have an advantage against many teams with my DST. My rankings are geared towards dynasty/future value of players and I did not entirely adjust for that. My research is also usually focused on certain situations that I give a lot of attention to, but I do not pay attention to everything. For example I am so sick of the Jets I rarely read anything about that team. The Browns used to be a team like this for me but not anymore.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since you didn't ask . . . I still don't see how NE doesn't win at least 11 games, maybe even 12. Historically, if you don't get to them in the first half of the season, then you are a lot less likely to beat them later on. In the BB/Brady era, they have gone 61-25 (.709) in the first half of the season and 74-14 in the second half of the season (.841). They also rarely have lost at home in the regular season (74-13, .851).Stinkin Ref said:
Looking at their schedule . . .
@BUF - W
NYJ - W
TB - W
@ ATL - L
@ CIN - W
NO - W
@ NYJ - W
MIA - W
PIT - W
@ CAR - W
DEN - L
@ HOU - W
CLE - W
@ MIA - L
@ BAL - L
BUF - W
12-4 . . . including 3 loses later in the year (which normally doesn't happen).
Maybe they lose another road game against CIN or HOU . . . and that still would get them 11 wins. I have a hard time coming up with them not hitting 10 wins, short of a long-term Brady injury.
OldMilwaukee
IBL Representative
Off course that's true.Since you didn't ask . . . I still don't see how NE doesn't win at least 11 games, maybe even 12. Historically, if you don't get to them in the first half of the season, then you are a lot less likely to beat them later on. In the BB/Brady era, they have gone 61-25 (.709) in the first half of the season and 74-14 in the second half of the season (.841). They also rarely have lost at home in the regular season (74-13, .851).Stinkin Ref said:
Looking at their schedule . . .
@BUF - W
NYJ - W
TB - W
@ ATL - L
@ CIN - W
NO - W
@ NYJ - W
MIA - W
PIT - W
@ CAR - W
DEN - L
@ HOU - W
CLE - W
@ MIA - L
@ BAL - L
BUF - W
12-4 . . . including 3 loses later in the year (which normally doesn't happen).
Maybe they lose another road game against CIN or HOU . . . and that still would get them 11 wins. I have a hard time coming up with them not hitting 10 wins, short of a long-term Brady injury.
By the second half of the season they have recorded your transmissions, stolen your signals and recorded your practices!!!!!!!!!
You opened yourself right up for that one sir!
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I wouldn't call @ HOU a win and Carolina will give them fitsSince you didn't ask . . . I still don't see how NE doesn't win at least 11 games, maybe even 12. Historically, if you don't get to them in the first half of the season, then you are a lot less likely to beat them later on. In the BB/Brady era, they have gone 61-25 (.709) in the first half of the season and 74-14 in the second half of the season (.841). They also rarely have lost at home in the regular season (74-13, .851).Stinkin Ref said:
Looking at their schedule . . .
@BUF - W
NYJ - W
TB - W
@ ATL - L
@ CIN - W
NO - W
@ NYJ - W
MIA - W
PIT - W
@ CAR - W
DEN - L
@ HOU - W
CLE - W
@ MIA - L
@ BAL - L
BUF - W
12-4 . . . including 3 loses later in the year (which normally doesn't happen).
Maybe they lose another road game against CIN or HOU . . . and that still would get them 11 wins. I have a hard time coming up with them not hitting 10 wins, short of a long-term Brady injury.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Every year "we" draft more Rams WRs than WRs from any other team. Every year "we" repeat the same mistake next year.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Very good team. Only pick I don't like is Cinncy QB. I'll take Bradshaw/Raiders QB over Tolbert/CinnyQB .Just Win Baby said:Here is my assessment of my draft:
1.4 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – 1st WR drafted. Graham is the only player I would have taken ahead of Megatron, and he was gone. Last season, Calvin averaged more points per game than every other non-QB, and only Gonzalez finished with more total points. In 2011, only Graham and Gronk were better. I was surprised and pleased to see two RBs taken before this pick, allowing me to get him.
2.13 Randall Cobb, WR, GB – 10th WR drafted. With 7 TEs already gone, I wasn’t ready to reach for one here, so I considered only WRs. Cobb finished as the #18 WR in this format last season, but I expect him to be a top 10 WR this season, thanks to more snaps and touches this year as an improved second year player, especially with Jennings gone, plus good prospects for .
3.4 Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – 13th WR drafted. With 9 TEs already gone, I still wasn’t ready to reach for one here, so again I considered only WRs. I chose Nelson over Jackson, Colston, and Nicks due to his potential for more playoff points. While Nelson finished as the #32 WR in this format last season, he was the #5 WR in 2011. He missed 4 games last season and played hurt in others. I am optimistic that he will be healthier this season, and he should also get more targets with Jennings gone.
4.13 Redskins, TMQB, WAS – 12th TMQB drafted. I wasn’t planning to take a TMQB this early, but I couldn’t pass up the value of the Redskins. With RGIII a rookie last season who dealt with two injuries, and with top targets Garcon and Davis combining to miss 16 games, the Redskins TMQB had the third highest average points per game in this format and was the #6 overall scorer. Last season, the Redskins outscored the #14 TMQB by over 100 points, and it appeared to me that a dropoff at TMQB was looming. Reports are that RGIII’s rehab has him on pace for an Adrian Peterson-like recovery. There is definitely some risk associated with his recovery, and I assume that’s why the Redskins TMQB was available here. But the upside was too much to pass up.
5.4 Antonio Gates, TE, SD – 14th TE drafted. Still needing at least 2 TEs, I felt compelled to take one here. In retrospect, I may have been better off had I taken one at my 2/3 turn, even though it would have been a reach. I wasn’t thrilled to take Gates here, but I thought he was the best available. He was the #16 TE in this format last season, and I am hoping for a bit of improvement with the coaching change and offensive personnel improvements in San Diego.
6.13 Bengals, TMQB, CIN – 15th TMQB drafted. I felt that there was still a solid advantage available in taking a playoff QB rather than waiting longer on my second TMQB. I considered the Ravens, which were the #7 overall scorer last season, but they got 27% of their points in that 4 game postseason run to the Super Bowl, and I don’t see that happening again, plus they have lost Boldin and Pitta. The Bengals finished as the #14 TMQB last season, but Dalton should be better as a third year QB, and the Bengals added some weapons on offense in Bernard and Eifert. I’m counting on playoff points.
7.4 Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAX – 24th TE drafted. He was the #20 TE in this format last season, but the new Jaguars GM has stated that he was underused last season, and they intend to give him more opportunities this year. He is 29 and two years ago had 58/700/10, so there is good upside potential. I expect he will outperform this draft position.
8.13 Andre Brown, RB, NYG – 34th RB drafted. As planned, I ignored RBs for the first several rounds. At this point, I felt the value at other positions had slipped enough to take my first. I also considered Stewart and Ingram, but I felt Brown was a safer choice. Brown was the #34 RB in this format last season, despite playing only 10 games. Brown is the Giants’ goal line back, and he is very good in pass protection, so his role should be significant enough to outperform this draft position, as long as he stays healthy. Decent chance at playoff points. Plus, he went to my alma mater, N.C. State.
9.4 Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – 36th RB drafted. There is obvious risk with this pick, since Stewart is still recovering from ankle surgery. He finished as the #54 RB last year, missing 7 games and playing hurt in others. But if he gets healthy and plays most or all of the season, he is a virtual lock to outperform this draft position. In 2011, despite all of Cam’s rushing production and the presence of Deangelo, Stewart was the #26 RB in this format. That’s the kind of production I’m hoping for. In retrospect, this is the only pick in my draft that I regret… I should have probably gone WR here.
10.13 Ed Dickson, TE, BAL – 30th TE drafted. I decided to lock in my flex with a third TE, and I felt Dickson was the last quality TE remaining. He finished as the #40 TE last season in this format, but in 2011 was the #16 TE. I drafted him prior to Pitta’s injury. With Boldin gone, the Ravens were saying they will play more 2 TE sets, and Dickson would have a larger role. Pitta’s injury should equate to a significant boost in production, so I got a bit lucky, though I liked Dickson here already. Playoff points seem likely.
11.4 Bears, DEF, CHI – 7th Defense drafted. I was pleasantly surprised that they were still on the board with 6 defenses already taken. They finished #1 in this format last year, and there is no reason to think they won’t again finish in the top 5.
12.13 Matt Bryant, PK, ATL – 3rd PK drafted. Bryant finished as the #1 PK last season in this format. He plays in a dome for a team with an elite offense that is a Super Bowl contender and thus likely to play multiple playoff games. For those reasons, he was my #1 PK. I prefer to take PKs relatively early in this format for two reasons. First, one or more teams tend to get stuck without a starter due to pending camp battles at the time of the draft, and it is virtually impossible to win this league giving up 100+ points in a PK spot. Second, there is a much bigger spread at PK than people tend to realize. Last season, Bryant outscored the #15 PK by 61 points and the #30 PK by 95 points. At this point in the draft, it’s much harder to gain that many points over other teams by drafting any other position.
13.4 Kai Forbath, PK, WAS – 8th PK drafted. As expected, the PK run was in full effect, and I did not want to wait another 25 picks to get my second, and risk getting stuck as described above. Forbath didn’t play until the Redskins’ 6th game last season. He ended the season with the 9th best scoring average for PKs in this format and projecting his pace for an additional 5 games would have had him finishing #9 overall. He only missed one FG last season and made 12 from 40+ yards, so the team may give him more deep attempts this year. And the offense could be better, with both Garcon and Davis healthy. Barring injury, Forbath seems like a lock to finish among the top 10 PKs.
14.13 Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR – 66th WR drafted. He finished the as #56 WR last season in this format, despite missing two games and playing at less than 100% in at least one other. He has improved each year since he entered the NFL; if that trend continues, he will be good value here. He is also playing for a contract. Hoping for 150+ points.
15.4 Jeremy Kerley, WR, NYJ – 71st WR drafted. He finished as the #44 WR last season in this format. I’m very surprised he slid this far, with Keller gone and Holmes still recovering. Kerley stands a very good chance to be the #1 target in the Jets offense. Barring injury, this pick is a steal.
16.13 Jets, DEF, NYJ – 21st DEF drafted. They finished as the #16 DEF last season in this format, following a #6 finish in 2011. Rex Ryan has proven he is a good defensive coach, and I have every reason to believe they will finish in the top half of defenses this season, which would make this a value pick.
17.4 Ryan Williams, RB, ARI – 61st RB drafted. This is an upside pick all the way. If Williams stays healthy, his talent should get him enough opportunity to score 75+ fantasy points. Solid value here.
18.13 Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR – 63rd RB drafted. Tolbert finished as the #39 RB last season in this format. Given that Stewart is hurt right now, and Carolina will supposedly deemphasize the read option in favor of a traditional running attack, Tolbert has considerable upside at this point in the draft. And I drafted Stewart… if Stewart falters, hopefully I’ll recover some of his points from Tolbert.
This team is a contender.
Kruppe
Footballguy
What a stinker. This crap-tacular team gives me very little cause for optimism. The funny part is, all the way through the draft I felt like I was getting pretty good value. Now when I look at the finished product I am nauseous. Maybe that’s good. The last 2 years have been pretty pathetic results for Team Kruppe, but coming out of those drafts I felt pretty confident.
1.05 Packers, Green Bay GBP TMQB – with 5th pick felt I should be able to get my top pick at TE, WR or QB; expected it to be QB and that’s how it worked out. I doubt I will regret this pick.
2.12 Finley, Jermichael GBP TE – I have been stuck without a top TE before and it is not pretty; I know, Finley is not a top TE but my feeling is he has the best chance of the guys left at this point to make it to the top-5. Definitely not a reach but things will have to go right this year for this to pay off. Was also thinking Welker here.
3.05 Panthers, Carolina CAR TMQB – No way was I thinking another QB here but I felt this was a good value pick.
4.12 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE – Was thinking Rudolph at my 3.05 so was happy to see him still there for this pick. This is about the point where I decided to punt the RB for this draft.
5.05 Wallace, Mike MIA WR – Solid WR but I hate picking WR on a new team. A problem I often have is I put too much value on guys that have been top-5 rated in the past.
6.12 Jennings, Greg MIN WR - ditto
7.05 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR – sunovab!^@#
8.12 Gordon, Josh CLE WR - meh
9.05 Rice, Sidney SEA WR – like him more than most I guess, and this was before I heard about Percy. Can he stay healthy?
10.12 Ballard, Vick IND RB – finally got around to picking my first RB. Not much left at this point but he is for sure part of a committee on a good offence and with Bradshaw being so fragile, he could get a good amount of action
11.05 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB – along the lines of Ballard, he is part of a committee on a good offence and the guy ahead of him is likely to be missing time
12.12 Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def – With D I am mainly looking for bonus playoff points
13.05 Crosby, Mason GBP PK – with K I am mainly looking for job security, but also with playoff potential if possible. I hate kickers and wish they were banned from FF. Buncha idiot kickers.
14.12 Henery, Alex PHI PK – did I mention I hate kickers?
15.05 Stacy, Zac STL RB – I know nothing about this guy and picked based solely on ADP
16.12 Hunter, Kendall SFO RB – I am hoping the Achilles heals nicely. Kendall looked real strong in part time duty last year. I am guessing Gore hits the wall this year.
17.05 Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def – Pretty good D for 17th round.
18.12 Kendricks, Lance STL TE – This pick has me rubbing my hands together. Really like the potential for STL to use both him and Cook a lot.
Again, running down this draft pick-by-pick I feel like I drafted good value all the way, but when I look at the final roster I just don’t see it. My optimistic outlook is I will get good enough play from the QBs to stay middle of the pack. My only real chance to contend is if I hit home runs with my TEs.
1.05 Packers, Green Bay GBP TMQB – with 5th pick felt I should be able to get my top pick at TE, WR or QB; expected it to be QB and that’s how it worked out. I doubt I will regret this pick.
2.12 Finley, Jermichael GBP TE – I have been stuck without a top TE before and it is not pretty; I know, Finley is not a top TE but my feeling is he has the best chance of the guys left at this point to make it to the top-5. Definitely not a reach but things will have to go right this year for this to pay off. Was also thinking Welker here.
3.05 Panthers, Carolina CAR TMQB – No way was I thinking another QB here but I felt this was a good value pick.
4.12 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE – Was thinking Rudolph at my 3.05 so was happy to see him still there for this pick. This is about the point where I decided to punt the RB for this draft.
5.05 Wallace, Mike MIA WR – Solid WR but I hate picking WR on a new team. A problem I often have is I put too much value on guys that have been top-5 rated in the past.
6.12 Jennings, Greg MIN WR - ditto
7.05 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR – sunovab!^@#
8.12 Gordon, Josh CLE WR - meh
9.05 Rice, Sidney SEA WR – like him more than most I guess, and this was before I heard about Percy. Can he stay healthy?
10.12 Ballard, Vick IND RB – finally got around to picking my first RB. Not much left at this point but he is for sure part of a committee on a good offence and with Bradshaw being so fragile, he could get a good amount of action
11.05 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB – along the lines of Ballard, he is part of a committee on a good offence and the guy ahead of him is likely to be missing time
12.12 Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def – With D I am mainly looking for bonus playoff points
13.05 Crosby, Mason GBP PK – with K I am mainly looking for job security, but also with playoff potential if possible. I hate kickers and wish they were banned from FF. Buncha idiot kickers.
14.12 Henery, Alex PHI PK – did I mention I hate kickers?
15.05 Stacy, Zac STL RB – I know nothing about this guy and picked based solely on ADP
16.12 Hunter, Kendall SFO RB – I am hoping the Achilles heals nicely. Kendall looked real strong in part time duty last year. I am guessing Gore hits the wall this year.
17.05 Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def – Pretty good D for 17th round.
18.12 Kendricks, Lance STL TE – This pick has me rubbing my hands together. Really like the potential for STL to use both him and Cook a lot.
Again, running down this draft pick-by-pick I feel like I drafted good value all the way, but when I look at the final roster I just don’t see it. My optimistic outlook is I will get good enough play from the QBs to stay middle of the pack. My only real chance to contend is if I hit home runs with my TEs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
"Currently getting treatment on his knee in Switzerland" would give me cause for concern.
Kruppe
Footballguy
That kinda sucks.
Pleasedon'tfinishlast
Pleasedon'tfinishlast
Pleasedon'tfinishlast
Pleasedon'tfinishlast
Pleasedon'tfinishlast
Pleasedon'tfinishlast
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
[SIZE=medium]Stinkin Ref:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]15 hole in both Anarchy 1 and 2….while not the greatest…I don’t mind being on the turns….makes decisions a little easier and probably cut my pick time in half since I didn’t have to look at a bunch of rosters and try to figure out who had what and what may or may not make it back. Was nice having Norseman at the turn here and Renesauz in Anarchy 1 as we usually rolled it over pretty quick. Whats nice about this format is that even though you are in a league with quality drafters, there are so many different ways to go that sometimes things will fall to you, unlike most other leagues where you can almost predict the draft order. Not saying a bunch of things fell here at all, but there is some opportunity to go in different directions. This might be my favorite format to test drafting skillzzzzzzzz or lack thereof. Pace was awesome. Let's see the carnage:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]2.02 Patriots, New England NEP TMQB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]4.02 Colts, Indianapolis IND TMQB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Took the same two picks with my first two picks in both drafts. Wanted to lock up a top QB with one of the first two picks. Some may like other TeamQB’s available a little more than NE but that is Brady’s team and I don’t see how they don’t win the division even with the issues. At the 3-4 turn I sniffed Amendola instead of the Colts but knew QB’s would start going and thought QB was a safer early pick. I’m kinda surprised people aren’t higher on Luck, I’ll be targeting him a bunch in my redrafts at his current ADP.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]6.02 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]9.15 Pierce, Bernard BAL RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]14.02 Bush, Michael CHI RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]15.15 Reece, Marcel OAK RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Punting RB. Plan in these was to target the last 3 guys above and/or Woodhead late and maybe try and have one somewhat decent stud. I’m gambling on Ivory but have always loved his game. Pierce in line for more work, Bush will hopefully fall across the goal line a few times and I like Reece’s game a lot. As far as backup RB’s go, I think I have a good group here not named Tate or B. Brown as far as guys who could see a significant bump if the main guy goes down. Not exactly sure where I would rank, Tate, Brown, or Woodhead in this mix probably after Pierce but before the other two, I don’t know. I think I’ll tread water here and not lose a bunch to the field except for the monster groupings a couple of guys have.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]3.15 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]5.15 Jones, James GBP WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]7.15 Britt, Kenny TEN WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]8.02 Austin, Miles DAL WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]10.02 Brown, Vincent SDC WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Kinda regret the Bowe pick but WR’s were flying and I just think he sees a bunch of targets. Quick slant is one of his strongest routes and then he can get some YAC. Jones solid and Britt a gamble I hope pays off big and felt like a good gamble to take where I took him. I ####### hate Miles Austin and am kicking myself for not taking Dwilly with one of the picks around that turn. Major #### up. I could have had Dwilly and then a guy like Streater later or something. DX may have been a better pick then both of those guys at the turn. I take some pride in trying to dominate this part of the draft (not necessarily in FBG leagues cause it’s tougher), but think I screwed the pooch. I think these guys can play but I maybe would have liked it better had I gone a different direction at the 7-8 turn. Brown is a camp darling, we’ll see. These 5 guys aren’t bad, but Britt and Austin will be key….stay healthy and out of jail.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]1.15 Davis, Vernon SFO TE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]12.02 Walker, Delanie TEN TE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]18.02 Thomas, Julius DEN TE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Higher on Davis than most. Cooling on the Walker pick but thought maybe they brought him in for a reason. But if they didn’t really use Cook are they going to use Walker? Felt he was best of what was left at TE and WR at the time, if he gets 45 receptions that’s a 90 catch WR. Yeah…let’s go with that. I live in CO and word is they want Thomas to be the man at TE. Tamme/Dressen may get cut (they’d probably be Patriots before they got in their car) and Thomas has been running with the 1’s. Obviously Welker impacts all DEN receivers, but again just give me 40-45 receptions and I’ll take that in the last round. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]13.15 Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]16.02 Gano, Graham CAR PK[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Wasn’t going to get ###### here like I did in Anarchy 1.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]11.15 Patriots, New England NEP Def[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]17.15 Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Playoff team and a homer pick.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Should be cool at QB. Ivory staying healthy and a few breaks at RB. Britt and Austin produce. Davis being a top guy like I think and give me just a little sumthin out of Walker and Thomas. This is pretty much how I had it drawn up before we started, solid QB, punt RB, solid WR, and a solid TE. Would have liked to have been a little stronger at RB1 and TE2/3 but it didn’t shake out. Good luck guys.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium] [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]15 hole in both Anarchy 1 and 2….while not the greatest…I don’t mind being on the turns….makes decisions a little easier and probably cut my pick time in half since I didn’t have to look at a bunch of rosters and try to figure out who had what and what may or may not make it back. Was nice having Norseman at the turn here and Renesauz in Anarchy 1 as we usually rolled it over pretty quick. Whats nice about this format is that even though you are in a league with quality drafters, there are so many different ways to go that sometimes things will fall to you, unlike most other leagues where you can almost predict the draft order. Not saying a bunch of things fell here at all, but there is some opportunity to go in different directions. This might be my favorite format to test drafting skillzzzzzzzz or lack thereof. Pace was awesome. Let's see the carnage:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]2.02 Patriots, New England NEP TMQB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]4.02 Colts, Indianapolis IND TMQB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Took the same two picks with my first two picks in both drafts. Wanted to lock up a top QB with one of the first two picks. Some may like other TeamQB’s available a little more than NE but that is Brady’s team and I don’t see how they don’t win the division even with the issues. At the 3-4 turn I sniffed Amendola instead of the Colts but knew QB’s would start going and thought QB was a safer early pick. I’m kinda surprised people aren’t higher on Luck, I’ll be targeting him a bunch in my redrafts at his current ADP.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]6.02 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]9.15 Pierce, Bernard BAL RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]14.02 Bush, Michael CHI RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]15.15 Reece, Marcel OAK RB[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Punting RB. Plan in these was to target the last 3 guys above and/or Woodhead late and maybe try and have one somewhat decent stud. I’m gambling on Ivory but have always loved his game. Pierce in line for more work, Bush will hopefully fall across the goal line a few times and I like Reece’s game a lot. As far as backup RB’s go, I think I have a good group here not named Tate or B. Brown as far as guys who could see a significant bump if the main guy goes down. Not exactly sure where I would rank, Tate, Brown, or Woodhead in this mix probably after Pierce but before the other two, I don’t know. I think I’ll tread water here and not lose a bunch to the field except for the monster groupings a couple of guys have.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]3.15 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]5.15 Jones, James GBP WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]7.15 Britt, Kenny TEN WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]8.02 Austin, Miles DAL WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]10.02 Brown, Vincent SDC WR[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Kinda regret the Bowe pick but WR’s were flying and I just think he sees a bunch of targets. Quick slant is one of his strongest routes and then he can get some YAC. Jones solid and Britt a gamble I hope pays off big and felt like a good gamble to take where I took him. I ####### hate Miles Austin and am kicking myself for not taking Dwilly with one of the picks around that turn. Major #### up. I could have had Dwilly and then a guy like Streater later or something. DX may have been a better pick then both of those guys at the turn. I take some pride in trying to dominate this part of the draft (not necessarily in FBG leagues cause it’s tougher), but think I screwed the pooch. I think these guys can play but I maybe would have liked it better had I gone a different direction at the 7-8 turn. Brown is a camp darling, we’ll see. These 5 guys aren’t bad, but Britt and Austin will be key….stay healthy and out of jail.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]1.15 Davis, Vernon SFO TE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]12.02 Walker, Delanie TEN TE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]18.02 Thomas, Julius DEN TE[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Higher on Davis than most. Cooling on the Walker pick but thought maybe they brought him in for a reason. But if they didn’t really use Cook are they going to use Walker? Felt he was best of what was left at TE and WR at the time, if he gets 45 receptions that’s a 90 catch WR. Yeah…let’s go with that. I live in CO and word is they want Thomas to be the man at TE. Tamme/Dressen may get cut (they’d probably be Patriots before they got in their car) and Thomas has been running with the 1’s. Obviously Welker impacts all DEN receivers, but again just give me 40-45 receptions and I’ll take that in the last round. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]13.15 Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]16.02 Gano, Graham CAR PK[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Wasn’t going to get ###### here like I did in Anarchy 1.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]11.15 Patriots, New England NEP Def[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]17.15 Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Playoff team and a homer pick.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Should be cool at QB. Ivory staying healthy and a few breaks at RB. Britt and Austin produce. Davis being a top guy like I think and give me just a little sumthin out of Walker and Thomas. This is pretty much how I had it drawn up before we started, solid QB, punt RB, solid WR, and a solid TE. Would have liked to have been a little stronger at RB1 and TE2/3 but it didn’t shake out. Good luck guys.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
because of the mindset of the bolded.....I'm not sure they carry and pay 4 TE's this year.....doesn't make much sense....so we'll see how it shakes out...got a feeling one if not both of Tamme/Dreesen aren't on the roster....just my opinion with all due respect to the Bronco guru....so whoever is left standing may get more then you think and it will most likely be the guys they drafted and aren't paying as much...especially if they have freakish skills like Thomas....just IMO obviously....they may need those roster spots elsehwhere.....o/d line come to mind with issues there....
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You can't catch the ball if you are not on the field. If they go 3 WR and 2 RB, even my poor math skills come up with 0 TE points on those plays. WITHOUT Welker last year, the #1 TE caught 51 passes last year. Now there's Welker and another TE.
If I had to guess, Thomas is working with the starting offense to get used to the system and get used to playing some with Manning. I would not necessarily conclude that that means the end for Tamme or Dreesen. I still think this will be a situational TEBC and the production will get rotated. I doubt one guy gets all the PT and all the receptions. He could still get 30 receptions, which is still a decent outcome for a late round Anarchy pick.
Fiddles
Footballguy
I like Bailey also. I've been snagging him late this summer. Since training camp started I'm becoming a pats believer. Sounds like their rookies are already looking very good and I'm drinking the cool aid. Dobsons going too early for me but Boyce very late suits me fine.
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Tau837
Footballguy
As I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest default projections (updated today):
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy... Hard to overcome that Graham advantage...
Standard caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults (Dodds). Obviously, many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have several individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, and that cannot be predicted.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format (or possibly I do not know how to properly configure it); but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy...
Hard to overcome that Graham advantage...Standard caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults (Dodds). Obviously, many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have several individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, and that cannot be predicted.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format (or possibly I do not know how to properly configure it); but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
rzrback77
Footballguy
Thanks JWB - always enjoy following these posts.As I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest default projections (updated today):
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy...
Standard caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults (Dodds). Obviously, many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have several individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, and that cannot be predicted.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format (or possibly I do not know how to properly configure it); but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
OldMilwaukee
IBL Representative
excellentAs I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest default projections (updated today):
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy...
Standard caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults (Dodds). Obviously, many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have several individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, and that cannot be predicted.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format (or possibly I do not know how to properly configure it); but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
Please keep us updated.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Glad to see my team is ranked at the very bottom. That gives me some optimism. Not that Dodds and FBG are not better prognosticators than I am, but even at that they tend to be about 40% wrong and I do have some trust in my forward thinking although sometimes I am too soon or other times I am following the salami on rye that gets a bit uppity.
I used the DD for the 1st 8-10 rounds or so for the same purpose that JWB. I didn't enter my projections into it except for a few key players I was targeting. I thought it was a useful tool until we got into later rounds when DD was pretty much saying to not draft anyone anymore. I did find it helpful for looking ahead at possible runs and the 1st 2 rounds or so fell pretty close to Dodds VBD numbers.
As to JWB question about how to set it up. I set baselines for TMQB at 16. This causes almost all of the QB to be ranked higher than any other position. If you look at total points from previous seasons this is how the leader boards stack up as well in total points.
Now total points are not the real question here but VBD points.
QB 16 (a average starter) scored 310 total points last season. So that was a 160pt advantage for the top QB over an average starter. The worst starter scored 152. So this means a QB1 could confer an advantage of at the highest 300 VBD.
Stinkin' Ref is correct that AD was only RB 21 in this format last season. However Peterson only scored 13TD last season and his receiving yardage well below his average as well. Now this is a career year for a RB obviously but a career RB year could bring more TD than that. TDs could be 16-22 for a career year at RB. Something I think Richardson will accomplish this season. Peterson still scored 322 points. Compared to some of the RB that a lot of the teams will be fielding?
16 teams must start 4RB each = 64RB
So RB32 (a average starter) scored 98 points last season. That means AD gave a 200pt advantage over the medium range RB. RB 64 scored 47 points last season. So that means a 200-250 point advantage for a top RB against half of the field that must be drafted.
Similarly 16 teams must start 5WR = 80WR and with some flex being used here(not many RB flex but many TE also) that goes a bit deeper than 80 also. WR1 scored 348pts (20 more than AD is not that huge) the WR40 scored 163pts. So 180pt advantage over an average starter. WR80 scored 91pts so a 260pt advantage, about the same as the RB/QB are giving. The separation is much less than this for an average WR pick compared to each other and there are many more viable options than at the RB position.
Teams must start 32 TE and many will opt to use TE as a flex as well. So I will set the baselines at TE20 and TE 40. The top TE scored 379pts TE20 182pts so about a 200pt advantage over an average starter. TE 40 scored 85pts so that is getting near a 300pt swing.
That still sounds like a 200-300 possible point difference coming from the RB position just like that advantage at QB/TE/WR
The TE are so valuable mainly due to scarcity and the 2pt PPR causing more separation between TE prospects.
I also have the league as a whole reducing passing attempts from their new high last season. Not a lot but perhaps 500 passing attempts with a coinciding increase in rushing attempts (needed to support all of these high ranked RB no?). This actually makes the talent pool at the ends of the WR and TE group worse than last season due to a slight reduction in passing attempts for several teams.
Of course I may be wrong about that, but that is how I see it right now. This perspective should have led me towards valuing WR a bit more because I think there will be less receptions this season than last by about 24rec/team on average if I am correct.
The way the league is trending however this may be wrong and the league will continue to pass more once again in 2013.
I used the DD for the 1st 8-10 rounds or so for the same purpose that JWB. I didn't enter my projections into it except for a few key players I was targeting. I thought it was a useful tool until we got into later rounds when DD was pretty much saying to not draft anyone anymore. I did find it helpful for looking ahead at possible runs and the 1st 2 rounds or so fell pretty close to Dodds VBD numbers.
As to JWB question about how to set it up. I set baselines for TMQB at 16. This causes almost all of the QB to be ranked higher than any other position. If you look at total points from previous seasons this is how the leader boards stack up as well in total points.
Now total points are not the real question here but VBD points.
QB 16 (a average starter) scored 310 total points last season. So that was a 160pt advantage for the top QB over an average starter. The worst starter scored 152. So this means a QB1 could confer an advantage of at the highest 300 VBD.
Stinkin' Ref is correct that AD was only RB 21 in this format last season. However Peterson only scored 13TD last season and his receiving yardage well below his average as well. Now this is a career year for a RB obviously but a career RB year could bring more TD than that. TDs could be 16-22 for a career year at RB. Something I think Richardson will accomplish this season. Peterson still scored 322 points. Compared to some of the RB that a lot of the teams will be fielding?
16 teams must start 4RB each = 64RB
So RB32 (a average starter) scored 98 points last season. That means AD gave a 200pt advantage over the medium range RB. RB 64 scored 47 points last season. So that means a 200-250 point advantage for a top RB against half of the field that must be drafted.
Similarly 16 teams must start 5WR = 80WR and with some flex being used here(not many RB flex but many TE also) that goes a bit deeper than 80 also. WR1 scored 348pts (20 more than AD is not that huge) the WR40 scored 163pts. So 180pt advantage over an average starter. WR80 scored 91pts so a 260pt advantage, about the same as the RB/QB are giving. The separation is much less than this for an average WR pick compared to each other and there are many more viable options than at the RB position.
Teams must start 32 TE and many will opt to use TE as a flex as well. So I will set the baselines at TE20 and TE 40. The top TE scored 379pts TE20 182pts so about a 200pt advantage over an average starter. TE 40 scored 85pts so that is getting near a 300pt swing.
That still sounds like a 200-300 possible point difference coming from the RB position just like that advantage at QB/TE/WR
The TE are so valuable mainly due to scarcity and the 2pt PPR causing more separation between TE prospects.
I also have the league as a whole reducing passing attempts from their new high last season. Not a lot but perhaps 500 passing attempts with a coinciding increase in rushing attempts (needed to support all of these high ranked RB no?). This actually makes the talent pool at the ends of the WR and TE group worse than last season due to a slight reduction in passing attempts for several teams.
Of course I may be wrong about that, but that is how I see it right now. This perspective should have led me towards valuing WR a bit more because I think there will be less receptions this season than last by about 24rec/team on average if I am correct.
The way the league is trending however this may be wrong and the league will continue to pass more once again in 2013.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I realize that last year was last year, but based on who was drafted this year as a baseline for VBD scoring with last year's numbers . . .
Baseline for:
TMQB (32 drafted) = 318.76
RB (65 drafted) = 274.8
WR (88 drafted) = 279.5
TE (39 drafted) = 281.6
PK (32 drafted) = 143
DEF (32 drafted) = 171
Of course, some of those totals should be considered inflated. For example, the huge majority of RBs did not come close to what the #1 RB scored. On the flipside, the defenses were fairly close together except for the really horrible ones. So IMO, not all VBD scores are created equal. Sometimes, all it tells me is that you don't want to be stuck with the bottom feeders and there could be a huge grouping of cheap and suitable options with good VBD scores available pretty late.
Baseline for:
TMQB (32 drafted) = 318.76
RB (65 drafted) = 274.8
WR (88 drafted) = 279.5
TE (39 drafted) = 281.6
PK (32 drafted) = 143
DEF (32 drafted) = 171
Of course, some of those totals should be considered inflated. For example, the huge majority of RBs did not come close to what the #1 RB scored. On the flipside, the defenses were fairly close together except for the really horrible ones. So IMO, not all VBD scores are created equal. Sometimes, all it tells me is that you don't want to be stuck with the bottom feeders and there could be a huge grouping of cheap and suitable options with good VBD scores available pretty late.
Tau837
Footballguy
In this format, I use DD as follows: input the scoring, lineup, teams, and draft order and set the baseline to use the Worst Starter method. I leave the default projections alone and update them periodically throughout the draft. I initially set it for 18 rounds. Once the draft is over, I change the setup to add more rounds and increase the number of QBs to accommodate adding every backup QB to the rosters.
Doing it this way, I find that the DD recommendations are far different from how I value positions in this format. From my perspective, it overrates QBs and RBs and underrates TEs and, to a lesser degree, WRs. It also overrates PKs and Defenses to some degree, suggesting that the top ones should be drafted earlier than they should be.
Given the discussion about baselines, how do others configure it differently for this format? Bia alluded to it a little bit, but I'm not clear on how his setup differs.
Doing it this way, I find that the DD recommendations are far different from how I value positions in this format. From my perspective, it overrates QBs and RBs and underrates TEs and, to a lesser degree, WRs. It also overrates PKs and Defenses to some degree, suggesting that the top ones should be drafted earlier than they should be.
Given the discussion about baselines, how do others configure it differently for this format? Bia alluded to it a little bit, but I'm not clear on how his setup differs.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well the difference is I am using a median starter baseline instead of the worst starter.
The reason is I do not want to inflate VBD by counting the worst starter as the baseline. I want to see the advantage of the top 50% compared to the average starter. This is ultimately the same as worst starter except that I have negative VBD values for the bottom half of the expected draft pool and the VBD numbers not as high as they would be from using worst starter.
I am not drafting off of that list though but rather using it as a picture of expected ADP. It becomes less useful for this after 100 or so picks.
The numbers that David is talking about are the actual number of players drafted by position, which is useful but I would divide those numbers by 2 for a median baseline then.
So
TMQB (32 drafted) = 318.76 = 159
RB (65 drafted) = 274.8 = 137
WR (88 drafted) = 279.5 = 140
TE (39 drafted) = 281.6 = 141
PK (32 drafted) = 143 = 72
DEF (32 drafted) = 171 = 85
The median TMQB is more valuable than the other positions by about 20 points. The other 3 skill positions are very well balanced right around 140 points.
This is why I drafted Texans/Cardinals when I did. I am expecting those to outperform 159 by quite a bit and I do not want to be stuck holding the 100 QB (or worse) and automatically lose 200 points to the field.
The top TE do give a huge advantage because there are so few of them. The 3rd tier TE are giving up over 100 points to the top TE even if you do use a high pick on them. That is not enough of a ROI for me to burn such a high pick as a 2nd-4th unless I really think the guy I am drafting is going to be one of those top 3 TE.
For example if Vernon Davis (who I am skeptical of seeing much more targets than last season) had come back to me in the 2nd round I might have considered him there but I was not willing to give up my 1st round pick for him. Witten or Graham sure but Davis might be blocking a lot while they let the mini Ditka get targets instead. While I recognize the point advantage I still have to realize that using my pick there means I am going to be drafting RB/WR 20's if I do not get one in the 1st 2 rounds. The advantage is lost. TE becomes a value once the WR are depleted later on in the draft.
You cannot cover all of the positions. Anarchy set this up purposefully so that every team will have holes/weakness and also so anyone can try any strategy they prefer.
When they zig I tend to zag. The WR were being picked over more than the RB when my picks got to me so I had to make a decision. Follow the wake of the WR run (at least I was ahead of this with my Green pick) or try to take advantage at another position instead? The value was at the RB position in my opinion at that point so I went for it.
The reason is I do not want to inflate VBD by counting the worst starter as the baseline. I want to see the advantage of the top 50% compared to the average starter. This is ultimately the same as worst starter except that I have negative VBD values for the bottom half of the expected draft pool and the VBD numbers not as high as they would be from using worst starter.
I am not drafting off of that list though but rather using it as a picture of expected ADP. It becomes less useful for this after 100 or so picks.
The numbers that David is talking about are the actual number of players drafted by position, which is useful but I would divide those numbers by 2 for a median baseline then.
So
TMQB (32 drafted) = 318.76 = 159
RB (65 drafted) = 274.8 = 137
WR (88 drafted) = 279.5 = 140
TE (39 drafted) = 281.6 = 141
PK (32 drafted) = 143 = 72
DEF (32 drafted) = 171 = 85
The median TMQB is more valuable than the other positions by about 20 points. The other 3 skill positions are very well balanced right around 140 points.
This is why I drafted Texans/Cardinals when I did. I am expecting those to outperform 159 by quite a bit and I do not want to be stuck holding the 100 QB (or worse) and automatically lose 200 points to the field.
The top TE do give a huge advantage because there are so few of them. The 3rd tier TE are giving up over 100 points to the top TE even if you do use a high pick on them. That is not enough of a ROI for me to burn such a high pick as a 2nd-4th unless I really think the guy I am drafting is going to be one of those top 3 TE.
For example if Vernon Davis (who I am skeptical of seeing much more targets than last season) had come back to me in the 2nd round I might have considered him there but I was not willing to give up my 1st round pick for him. Witten or Graham sure but Davis might be blocking a lot while they let the mini Ditka get targets instead. While I recognize the point advantage I still have to realize that using my pick there means I am going to be drafting RB/WR 20's if I do not get one in the 1st 2 rounds. The advantage is lost. TE becomes a value once the WR are depleted later on in the draft.
You cannot cover all of the positions. Anarchy set this up purposefully so that every team will have holes/weakness and also so anyone can try any strategy they prefer.
When they zig I tend to zag. The WR were being picked over more than the RB when my picks got to me so I had to make a decision. Follow the wake of the WR run (at least I was ahead of this with my Green pick) or try to take advantage at another position instead? The value was at the RB position in my opinion at that point so I went for it.
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CalBear
Footballguy
I think configuring it for the number of points the worst starter will score is the right thing to do, given that all the players we're drafting are going to score, and we don't get to replace any of them, so all of them have positive value.
But, choosing a positional number (QB32) will give you inaccurate results, because that will plug in the projected number of points for that position, and projections for bottom-of-the-barrel players aren't very accurate. Notably, the production fall-off curves for the different positions don't come close to matching what the actual fall-off curve will be, and the errors are different for different positions.
I didn't use the DD much for this draft as I am on the road with just an iPad. But for baselines, I'd probably look at historical season-end results, and put in a point-based baseline that's either the worst starter total, or the worst reasonable starter total (for positions like TMQB and DEF where there's a huge dropoff in the last two or three positions).
Tau837
Footballguy
Interesting items based on DD's default (Dodds) projections:
1. Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:
3. Here is where the teams that drafted 1st round TMQBs project to finish:
#6 - Anarchy99 (but he is projected only 12 points behind 4th place, and only 35 points behind 3rd place)
#7 - nittanylion
#13 - Kruppe (to be fair, the Maclin injury is a factor here)
#15 - JeremyX13
No real pattern here.
4. 17 TEs were taken in the first 5 rounds. 4 teams did not take any TEs by that point. Here is where they project to finish:
#6 - Anarchy99
#7 - nittanylion
#14 - Sinrman
#15 - JeremyX13
Interesting that 3 of these teams took 1st round QBs. It appears those guys chose the early TMQB over the early TE. It certainly could work, since, as noted above, Anarchy is close enough to 3rd place that the difference is negligible.
5. The only team that chose a RB for its flex position is JeremyX13, projected to finish #15.
1. Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:
- Kellen Winslow is the highest projected undrafted player, and is projected to outscore 13 drafted TEs (including Pitta).
- Braylon Edwards is the highest projected WR, and is projected to outscore 20 drafted WRs (including Maclin and Harvin).
- Bilal Powell is the highest projected RB, and is projected to outscore 13 drafted RBs.
- No one took a Nick Folk, the Jets PK, who is projected as the #30 PK. Meanwhile, two Miami PKs were drafted, so one of those teams will likely get a zero.
- JeremyX13 - Christine Michael, RB, SEA - 30.6 points
- Sinrman - LaMichael James, RB, SF - 30.0 points
- Biabreakable - Stedman Bailey, WR, STL - 27.7 points
- Stinkin' Ref - Julius Thomas, TE, DEN - 23.0 points
- rzrback77 - Joseph Randle, RB, DAL - 22.2 points
- Biabreakable - Travis Kelce, TE, KC - 14.8 points
- JeremyX13 - Dan Carpenter, PK, MIA - 0 points
- Coordinator - Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL - 0 points (injury)
- Kruppe - Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI - 0 points (injury)
3. Here is where the teams that drafted 1st round TMQBs project to finish:
#6 - Anarchy99 (but he is projected only 12 points behind 4th place, and only 35 points behind 3rd place)
#7 - nittanylion
#13 - Kruppe (to be fair, the Maclin injury is a factor here)
#15 - JeremyX13
No real pattern here.
4. 17 TEs were taken in the first 5 rounds. 4 teams did not take any TEs by that point. Here is where they project to finish:
#6 - Anarchy99
#7 - nittanylion
#14 - Sinrman
#15 - JeremyX13
Interesting that 3 of these teams took 1st round QBs. It appears those guys chose the early TMQB over the early TE. It certainly could work, since, as noted above, Anarchy is close enough to 3rd place that the difference is negligible.
5. The only team that chose a RB for its flex position is JeremyX13, projected to finish #15.
Fiddles
Footballguy
Fiddles
Player YTD Pts Bye Drafted
Falcons, Atlanta ATL TMQB - 6 2.11
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC TMQB - 9 18.11
Love the falcons with sjax catching balls and julio already the mvp of training camp. Hoping Henne wins the jax job.
Bernard, Giovani CIN RB - 12 7.06
McCoy, LeSean PHI RB - 12 3.06
Miller, Lamar MIA RB - 6 4.11
Richardson, Daryl STL RB - 11 9.06
Very happy with this crew.
Boyce, Josh NEP WR - 10 17.06
Givens, Chris STL WR - 11 10.11
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR - 8 6.11
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR - 8 8.11
Roberts, Andre ARI WR - 9 15.06
Smith, Steve CAR WR - 4 5.06
Very happy with this crew as well. Really like the Givins Hartline area of the draft. Those guys are value city.
Ertz, Zach PHI TE - 12 11.06
Witten, Jason DAL TE - 11 1.06
Stud and opportunity in Philly
Prater, Matt DEN PK - 9 12.11
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK - 8 14.11
Playoff contenders
Browns, Cleveland CLE Def - 10 16.11
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def - 9 13.06
2 Ds on the rise
Love this team.
Player YTD Pts Bye Drafted
Falcons, Atlanta ATL TMQB - 6 2.11
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC TMQB - 9 18.11
Love the falcons with sjax catching balls and julio already the mvp of training camp. Hoping Henne wins the jax job.
Bernard, Giovani CIN RB - 12 7.06
McCoy, LeSean PHI RB - 12 3.06
Miller, Lamar MIA RB - 6 4.11
Richardson, Daryl STL RB - 11 9.06
Very happy with this crew.
Boyce, Josh NEP WR - 10 17.06
Givens, Chris STL WR - 11 10.11
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR - 8 6.11
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR - 8 8.11
Roberts, Andre ARI WR - 9 15.06
Smith, Steve CAR WR - 4 5.06
Very happy with this crew as well. Really like the Givins Hartline area of the draft. Those guys are value city.
Ertz, Zach PHI TE - 12 11.06
Witten, Jason DAL TE - 11 1.06
Stud and opportunity in Philly
Prater, Matt DEN PK - 9 12.11
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK - 8 14.11
Playoff contenders
Browns, Cleveland CLE Def - 10 16.11
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def - 9 13.06
2 Ds on the rise
Love this team.
coordinator
Footballguy
I feel this is about right for my team, maybe one spot higher. If I wouldn't have lost Pitta for the season and Harvin and Rice was healthy (for Seattle's QB) I think I would have been predicted for about 270 more points. That would have put me in third place. I do use draft dominator but don't use David’s projections. So with my projection I would have been within 20 points of Just Win Baby (who I project to have the best team). Now I don't feel I have much of a chance to compete.As I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest default projections (updated today):
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy...
Standard caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults (Dodds). Obviously, many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have several individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, and that cannot be predicted.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format (or possibly I do not know how to properly configure it); but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
coordinator
Footballguy
I also feel that the worst starter method is the best route if you aren't using custom drop offs. Predicting what positions will be taken is the best indicator of what positions you should take next in my opinion. I use the past couple of years drafts (along with the current draft) to try and predict what positions will be taken before I pick again. I do use projection dominator to customize my projections before I use draft dominator.
So if it is round 10 and I think 0 QBS will be taken and 3 RB with a drop in value of 10 points, 3 WR with a drop in value of 12 points, 2 TE who I don't need, 1 PK with a drop in value of 5, and 6 DEF with a drop in value of 23 points then I take the defense. I also try to predict a couple of picks ahead to see if the position changes. I do this for every pick in the draft.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
This thing has every team within about 500 points...it usually ends up over double that from top to bottom....with the winner in the 3200-3300 area and the last place team around 2200....give or take....coordinator said:As I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest default projections (updated today):
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy...
not much to really see here with these preseason numbers....they assume full seasons of health by every player, etc....take it for what it's worth at this point....
:tryingtojustifylowranking: .....although 50 points jumps me to middle of pack...
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Cec just spent about 3 minutes pimping Thomas on ESPN radio (here in CO) breaking down his skills and situation with Tamme and Dressen...with his closing remark being "Thomas could very easily be the starter by the end of camp".....
I realize with the other 3 WR's in town, there may not be a huge piece of pie to be had....but there is some value in the DEN TE position and that 3 way rotation may not be a lock....Thomas could be very active and his skills present nightmares for coverage...especially in the red zone....things change quickly...we'll see...
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
The zeros staring at the Pitta, Maclin, DX, Barth, owners are part of the reason the 500 point difference between top and bottom usually turns into a 1200 point difference and while your position in the preseason projections really means didly...This thing has every team within about 500 points...it usually ends up over double that from top to bottom....with the winner in the 3200-3300 area and the last place team around 2200....give or take....As I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest default projections (updated today):
3036 Duckboy
3017 Just Win Baby
2895 CalBear
2872 rzrback77
2869 Fiddles
2860 Anarchy99
2756 nittanylion
2745 Norseman
2722 There It Is
2716 Old Milwaukee
2708 Stinkin' Ref
2660 Coordinator
2634 Kruppe
2570 Sinrman
2517 JeremyX13
2510 Biabreakable
Duckboy...
not much to really see here with these preseason numbers....they assume full seasons of health by every player, etc....take it for what it's worth at this point....
:tryingtojustifylowranking: .....although 50 points jumps me to middle of pack...
