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So EBF, would you trade a late 1st and Johnson for a top 3 pick in 2014? Would you take Marquis Lee or Sammy Watkins, or Leche Seastrunk over Johnson and a late 1st? I can't imagine any possible way you or any decent dynasty player worth their salt wouldn't.
Can you 100% guarantee its a top 3 pick? Can you say those big guys for the 2014 draft wont have terrible college seasons and stock drop? Can you say they will go to teams where they can be starting WR from the go? No is the answer to all of those!
I think it's a solid deal as long as you're right about where those picks end up. A top 3 pick is usually worth a lot more than something in the 9-12 range.
This is the third time you've posted something along these lines, this format has worked for years and I personally wouldn't change it.
Sorry, but I do. I have my own opinion about the value of any trade but the discussion here is what confirms that my take was right or makes me realize that I was in error about the relative value of the pieces in the trade. And quite often the discussion is among some of the better dynasty owners who post here.And it is not that difficult to skip the discussion and scroll to the actual trades themselves.
Fair enough. Sorry I brought it up.
How can you say that and not even know what his team looks like? Maybe some owners should stick to redraft leagues.
I love that trade for you. :thumbsup:
JohnnyU, I don't fault the trade at all. Those with rosy covered glasses of Stevie Johnson breaking into the top ten haven't looked at his numbers. He just isn't that good. He's a bottom WR2. What if Buffalo brings in a better QB? I get it. But what if Buffalo brings in any TE/WR with a pulse to take away all his targets? He already doesn't have a good catch rate. Add in other weapons and his targets go down...soon he's a WR3 or WR4. I own Stevie Johnson in 4 of my dynasty leagues, but i'm a realist.As for the draft pick. If your team is good and you know it's bottom half, it's not worth a damn. Might as well package things together you don't really love for a chance at a special player. Part of what people miss out on in FF is the excitement. Watching a gamble pay off.
Nicks' value is falling, but I still don't know how you pulled that off.
IMO Its a calculated gamble. Stevie isn't a dime a dozen player. He's the best WR on his team by a pretty wide margin. Only four other players have put up 3 consecutive 1000+ yard receiving seasons (2010-2012). However, Stevie isn't an all world talent either, so you could get better in this deal. As for EBF's point regarding Stevie's targets:If you want to look at converting targets into yards, Stevie finished ahead of Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe this year. QBs definitely matter.
Can u give league details? Very interested in these players' values.
He was desperate for a QB
Love that for you.
i guess we just have different strategy for dynasty leagues... Im in 4 dynasty leagues and won 2 of them so i think my strategy is working. No need to bash people cause we disagree.
Much prefer the Mathews/Wallace side here, regardless if it is PPR (even more so in traditional leagues).
To early to tell on this trade IMO... Depends where wallace goes and who coaches Mathews next season... personally i prefer that side of the trade though.
No need to be a tool.Also agree that it's pretty hard to project the position of 2014 draft picks as of January 2013. An injury or two can easily turn that late 1st into a high pick, and I've seen a ton of "worst team in the league on paper" type squads make the playoffs or win titles.Steve Johnson isn't likely to be a fantasy WR1 anytime soon, but he is a young guy that should be a solid everyweek WR2 or WR3 starter moving forward. That seems like alot to give up on the hope that next year's fantasy season plays out the way you'd project a year in advance.Supply/demand, nice work
It really depends on team makeup. If my team is pretty good and his is pretty bad, I don't make that trade. The margin between pretty good and pretty bad is never as large as it seems. Pretty good teams often find guys like Stevie Johnson all that's standing between them and starting Eddie Royal. That's too much to give for such a crapshoot. On the other hand, if my team is dominant, I make that trade in a heartbeat. I have one league where I've got Demaryius, Harvin, Cobb, Fitz, Austin, and Britt. I'm stacked at all other positions, too. If my 6th was a Steve Johnson type (dependable, low ceiling) instead of Britt (high ceiling lottery ticket), that's exactly the type of deal I'd be looking to make. Trade a guy with no hope of cracking your lineup for a huge-upside lottery ticket. If you're really confident in your team's strength (and that's key- it's hard to be objective about your own team), then pull the trigger. Suddenly that move becomes low-downside, high-upside. Besides, NFL #1s on bad passing teams tend to be overrated. You can get the same production for a fraction of the cost from guys like Lance Moore, instead.
I wasn't being a tool. I simply said, how can he possibly say it was a bad deal without knowing the guy's roster and the possibility of his pick being top 3? First he made the statement how do you know 100% it will be top 3?, which implies that he agrees that a top 3 pick is worth Johnson and a late 1st. Then he just said it was a bad deal taking for granted it wouldn't be a top 3 pick.
Hold on! never said it was a "bad deal" just said i wasnt a fan of it and that i prefer to take proven guys over unproven rookies/potential top 3 draft picks.
My team has Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, David Wilson, Jacquizz Rodgers, Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle, Cecil Shorts, Jermichael finley. I also have the 1.04, 1.12, and 2.03 picks in this draft and three 1st rd picks(counting this trade) in 2014 that should all be very high.Given the makeup of my team, I felt the gamble was worth it.
Totally agree re: having a ridiculous WR group like that - in one PPR league I'm in I have Marshall, Dez, Welker, Harvin, and Crabtree and can only start two -- Steve Johnson would literally have negative value for me (have to cut a guy from a position w/ less depth to make room) in that situation. But that's fairly atypical in a solid league, IMO (that one's a local league where only about half the people really know what they are doing).OP specified teams as "one of the better" and "one of the worse" as opposed to dominant vs utter crap, hence my take.It really depends on team makeup. If my team is pretty good and his is pretty bad, I don't make that trade. The margin between pretty good and pretty bad is never as large as it seems. Pretty good teams often find guys like Stevie Johnson all that's standing between them and starting Eddie Royal. That's too much to give for such a crapshoot. On the other hand, if my team is dominant, I make that trade in a heartbeat. I have one league where I've got Demaryius, Harvin, Cobb, Fitz, Austin, and Britt. I'm stacked at all other positions, too. If my 6th was a Steve Johnson type (dependable, low ceiling) instead of Britt (high ceiling lottery ticket), that's exactly the type of deal I'd be looking to make. Trade a guy with no hope of cracking your lineup for a huge-upside lottery ticket. If you're really confident in your team's strength (and that's key- it's hard to be objective about your own team), then pull the trigger. Suddenly that move becomes low-downside, high-upside. Besides, NFL #1s on bad passing teams tend to be overrated. You can get the same production for a fraction of the cost from guys like Lance Moore, instead.
"Maybe some owners should just stick to redraft leagues" comes across as pretty toolish. YMMV.
Why do you need Dalton if you have Rodgers?
Team A gives 1.05 and 2.12; gets Kaepernick -- OK, possibly slight overpayTeam B gives Hankerson and Kaepernick; gets Nelson -- Yes, pleaseTeam C gives Nelson; gets 1.05 -- OK, slight overpay
Unless this is some kind of 2 QB start league that's a tad more than I'd pay for CK. I like him and he's my #1 QB on one of my teams but I picked him up for peanuts on the waiver wire. My point being QB's are quickly becoming the easiest position to fill in typical 12 team leagues.Team B made off like bandit. Jordy's a fantasy star. When healthy a no doubt about it must start WR. Those are harder to come by than QB's.Team C got hosed.
3300 passing yards and 6.8 YPA are insanely good numbers for a 1,000 yard receiver with a year and a half at QB and dreck at WR. I'm a big Kaep fan- I've owned him since he entered the league and have turned down several offers to trade him. My philosophy at QB is to heavily weight upside, though, and while Kaep has the tools to be a beast, I get the feeling that under Harbaugh he's more likely to be a perennial bottom half of the top 12 kind of guy. Either way, it's close between both guys. Both have really impressed me this year.
I own him in two leagues and that is also my fear, that Kaepernick under Harbaugh has a lower ceiling than he would have with another coach. Contrary to your experience, while I currently have little interest in moving him, the fact is I haven't gotten any offers either. I am wondering if perhaps many dynasty owners are still not convinced that he is for real. I tried to shop him last August in one league and could not even get a 2013 4th round pick, so the lack of trade interest now (at least in my leagues) does not surprise me.
Sounds like I got pretty good value then!
Yes, but as the other poster noted, only if the 1.04 works out for you.
True... might be a stretch but id love Bell there!
Team B seems to be the winner, but depending on the context of the league I could also see the Murray owner coming out on top.
As a Murray owner I'd never move him for Blackmon.
Watching how Garrett uses Murray is frustrating for me and I don't even own him. I have my doubts Garrett will ever committ to the run, especially in the red zone, and that will continue to limit Murray's value.
It seems Garrett will be losing play calling duties.
As a Blackmon owner I'd never move him for Murray.
I'd rather gamble on a good NFL QB becoming a good FF QB than hope that an average NFL QB becomes a good NFL QB. I think Tannehill is likely to get better for a variety of reasons, but one of the things I've learned is that you just can't always assume that a young QB is going to improve. Some do. Some don't. Assuming that they will is how guys like Bradford, Cutler, Young, and Leinart end up ranked as consensus top 10 dynasty QBs after their debut seasons.
Bottom line for me is that I'll take the guy putting up elite per throw passing metrics over the guy who might some day do the same. Nevermind the fact that I trust San Francisco's coaches and front office much more than Miami's...
