I prefer Cook/KT/Pierce/pick, fairly substantially.12 team PPR, start 1qb/3wr/2rb/1te
Team A gets:
V. Davis
S. Hill
J. Stewart
Team B gets:
J. Cook
K. Thompkins
B. Pierce
2014 2nd round pick (likely late)
Without knowing all the league and roster specifics:It's a very deep league, so the value of roster spots is pretty much negligible. Like I said, 31 defenses are rostered. The four players cut were Travis Benjamin, Mario Manningham, Kansas City's defense, and Kyle Williams- two of whom would have had to be cut, anyway, to make room for the rookie picks.OK, so we've established I think it's a landslide and you don't.I'd hardly call it a landslide. Spiller vs. Foster is close (most would prefer Foster, I'd prefer Spiller). I'd say that Jeffery, Schaub, and the Falcons are roughly comparable and even slightly better than the late 2nds (it's a deep league with only one defense on the wire, so good defenses actually have trade value). That leaves Stevie + Gore for Russell Wilson, and as deep as the QB position is right now, I think that's a reasonable trade, especially in a 10-team league.The team getting Wilson/Spiller wins in a landslide IMO, and it took me about 10 seconds to decide.Blockbuster just went down in a league of mine. I'm not involved. 10 team, start 1/2/3/1 no flex. Only really interesting notes are that it's very yardage heavy (1 point per 10 yards passing, 1 per 5 yards rushing/receiving), and it's a very deep league, so 31 out of 32 defenses are rostered and you'll actually see quality defenses have some (marginal) trade value.
Team A gives:
Russell Wilson
C.J. Spiller
2nd round pick (19th overall)
2nd round pick (20th overall)
Team B gives:
Matt Schaub
Arian Foster
Frank Gore
Alshon Jeffery
Stevie Johnson
Atlanta Falcons D/ST
The sign of a good trade is that it takes me a while to decide which side I preferred, and this was definitely a good trade. In the end, though, I think I'd rather have the Wilson/Spiller side.![]()
One minor thing is that you are ignoring the value of opening up roster spots. Beyond that, IMO the fact it is a 10 team league with no flex and starting just 1Q/2R/3W reduces the value of Schaub, Gore, and Jeffery.
Nothing you posted changes my thinking on this one at all.
The fact that only 10 QBs, 20 RBs, and 30 WRs start weekly does reduce the value of Schaub and Jeffery. It also reduces the value of those late 2nd round picks at least as much, if not more, so the end result is no net change. I don't think it has much impact on Gore either way. Fewer weekly starters makes the high-end starters more valuable, and the backups less valuable, but the solid-but-unspectacular starters remain pretty constant.
I guess I'm just trying to see what makes you think it's a landslide, because I keep breaking the trade up several different ways, and I don't see it- and I'm the second-lowest staffer on Arian Foster and the second-highest staffer on Russell Wilson, so I should be predisposed to viewing this as a landslide. In a 10-teamer, though, I just view it as a mostly lateral move at RB, a bye-week QB, starting defense, and mediocre prospect for a pair of mediocre prospects, and a low-end starter at RB and WR for a low-end starter at QB. The QB is a lot younger and has the higher upside, but RB and WR are both premium positions. The team getting Foster et al. substantially improved his chances of winning this year. The team getting Spiller et al. sacrificed a lot of quality depth to get immediately younger. This looks to me like a classic win-win trade, without even needing to resort to roster specifics (the guy trading Wilson also owned Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, for instance).
Are you just that high on Russell Wilson, especially considering the mediocre trade value of QBs? Do you view Spiller as that much of an upgrade over Foster? Care to break it down for me?
I like Manuel, but this is an overpay.12 team ppr (not my trade)
EJ Manuel
Andre Ellington
for
Locker
Dan Thomas
Ivory
2014 1st (early)
That was my gut too especially since I traded the pick he used to get Manuel for his 2014 1st (also likely early). But if you don't believe in Ivory, he's definitely movable for what you can get at this point. Is Manuel a better fantasy prospect than Bridgewater? Probably. Short term I think Manuel offers more FP upside. Long term I believe in Bridgewater more as a possible elite QB. What are you gonna do. It is an overpay.I like Manuel, but this is an overpay.12 team ppr (not my trade)
EJ Manuel
Andre Ellington
for
Locker
Dan Thomas
Ivory
2014 1st (early)
Thanks for the breakdown, GB. If I thought Russell Wilson was a more valuable player than Arian Foster, I'd think it was a landslide, too.Without knowing all the league and roster specifics:It's a very deep league, so the value of roster spots is pretty much negligible. Like I said, 31 defenses are rostered. The four players cut were Travis Benjamin, Mario Manningham, Kansas City's defense, and Kyle Williams- two of whom would have had to be cut, anyway, to make room for the rookie picks.OK, so we've established I think it's a landslide and you don't.I'd hardly call it a landslide. Spiller vs. Foster is close (most would prefer Foster, I'd prefer Spiller). I'd say that Jeffery, Schaub, and the Falcons are roughly comparable and even slightly better than the late 2nds (it's a deep league with only one defense on the wire, so good defenses actually have trade value). That leaves Stevie + Gore for Russell Wilson, and as deep as the QB position is right now, I think that's a reasonable trade, especially in a 10-team league.The team getting Wilson/Spiller wins in a landslide IMO, and it took me about 10 seconds to decide.Blockbuster just went down in a league of mine. I'm not involved. 10 team, start 1/2/3/1 no flex. Only really interesting notes are that it's very yardage heavy (1 point per 10 yards passing, 1 per 5 yards rushing/receiving), and it's a very deep league, so 31 out of 32 defenses are rostered and you'll actually see quality defenses have some (marginal) trade value.
Team A gives:
Russell Wilson
C.J. Spiller
2nd round pick (19th overall)
2nd round pick (20th overall)
Team B gives:
Matt Schaub
Arian Foster
Frank Gore
Alshon Jeffery
Stevie Johnson
Atlanta Falcons D/ST
The sign of a good trade is that it takes me a while to decide which side I preferred, and this was definitely a good trade. In the end, though, I think I'd rather have the Wilson/Spiller side.![]()
One minor thing is that you are ignoring the value of opening up roster spots. Beyond that, IMO the fact it is a 10 team league with no flex and starting just 1Q/2R/3W reduces the value of Schaub, Gore, and Jeffery.
Nothing you posted changes my thinking on this one at all.
The fact that only 10 QBs, 20 RBs, and 30 WRs start weekly does reduce the value of Schaub and Jeffery. It also reduces the value of those late 2nd round picks at least as much, if not more, so the end result is no net change. I don't think it has much impact on Gore either way. Fewer weekly starters makes the high-end starters more valuable, and the backups less valuable, but the solid-but-unspectacular starters remain pretty constant.
I guess I'm just trying to see what makes you think it's a landslide, because I keep breaking the trade up several different ways, and I don't see it- and I'm the second-lowest staffer on Arian Foster and the second-highest staffer on Russell Wilson, so I should be predisposed to viewing this as a landslide. In a 10-teamer, though, I just view it as a mostly lateral move at RB, a bye-week QB, starting defense, and mediocre prospect for a pair of mediocre prospects, and a low-end starter at RB and WR for a low-end starter at QB. The QB is a lot younger and has the higher upside, but RB and WR are both premium positions. The team getting Foster et al. substantially improved his chances of winning this year. The team getting Spiller et al. sacrificed a lot of quality depth to get immediately younger. This looks to me like a classic win-win trade, without even needing to resort to roster specifics (the guy trading Wilson also owned Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, for instance).
Are you just that high on Russell Wilson, especially considering the mediocre trade value of QBs? Do you view Spiller as that much of an upgrade over Foster? Care to break it down for me?
1. I would expect Schaub to have virtually no value. (Especially now that I know the owner getting Schaub has Newton and Ryan.)
2. I do not expect Jeffery to ever be more than a spot player at best in a league that starts 30 WRs.
3. You stated in your post that a quality defense has marginal value.
I'd actually characterize all of those assets as having no more than marginal value.
So to me the trade reads like this:
Wilson
Spiller
2 2nd round picks
for
Foster
Gore
Johnson
3 roster spots of marginal value
Wilson and Spiller are the two best players in the deal, which is normally a sign of a winning trade. The team getting Wilson and Spiller has secured a franchise QB1 for the next decade and a franchise RB1 for the next 5+ years. That is huge value.
And, yes, I am high on Wilson. I think he has multiple top 5 fantasy QB seasons in his future. Similarly, there is every reason to think Spiller will be a top 10 fantasy RB for the next 5+ years, and he may also put up multiple top 5 performances. So the team getting those two is potentially getting several top 5 fantasy performances. Meanwhile, the other team is likely getting none (I do not believe Foster has another one in him).
And despite what you say about roster spots, the bottom line is that the team getting Wilson and Spiller also opened up 4 roster spots, meaning it can add rookie draft picks and/or free agents without making any cuts. There is value in that.
Foster is a valuable player given up, but Spiller upgrades that position. Stevie Johnson has averaged 1041/8 over his three productive seasons, so he is a worthy starter in this format, but he is a WR3 in a 10 team league. Gore is 30, and I don't expect him to be starting next season, so his value to me is as a one year starter, and even that carries some risk given his age/mileage. We don't know that he will maintain solid performance this season.
Meanwhile, the other team had to cut 4 players to make the trade. Even if they weren't valuable players, now those roster spots cannot be used for rookie draft picks and free agents. There is a marginal loss in value there.
To me, it's a landslide.![]()
Well, after all of that, we both view it as essentially Wilson and Spiller for Foster, Gore, and Johnson. We just apparently look at that core part of the trade quite differently.So that makes it Spiller/Wilson for Foster/Stevie/Gore and a couple extra pennies.
For exactly that reason, if I were the owner who traded Wilson, I would have strongly considered trading Newton or Ryan instead, as I would have expected either of them to bring more return value in a trade. But that is in part based on my view of Wilson's likely future performance.To me, it just keeps coming back to the fact that, with all the depth at QB and with only 10 teams, a quarterback basically has to be Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers to carry much value. ...I can tell you with certainty that his market value is nowhere near where you're pegging Wilson's. I'm fond of pointing out that trade value isn't real value, I'm just trying to give a data point on what perceptions are in this particular league.
If you trade Matthews, do you still get the 1st?I'd like to hear thoughts on this one. I can't decide if it was smart or stupid.
12 team, 0.5PPR, start 1/2/3/1
I gave: Hopkins
I get: Mathews
I put a condition on it if Mathews isn't a top 18 RB this year (by total points, weeks 1-16), then I also receive 2015 1st.
Hopkins was my WR5. Mathews would be my RB5. Honestly, with big RB needy teams in my league, I am hoping to flip him.
YesIf you trade Matthews, do you still get the 1st?I'd like to hear thoughts on this one. I can't decide if it was smart or stupid.
12 team, 0.5PPR, start 1/2/3/1
I gave: Hopkins
I get: Mathews
I put a condition on it if Mathews isn't a top 18 RB this year (by total points, weeks 1-16), then I also receive 2015 1st.
Hopkins was my WR5. Mathews would be my RB5. Honestly, with big RB needy teams in my league, I am hoping to flip him.
Nice trade then. I'd move him now before he gets hurt.YesIf you trade Matthews, do you still get the 1st?I'd like to hear thoughts on this one. I can't decide if it was smart or stupid.
12 team, 0.5PPR, start 1/2/3/1
I gave: Hopkins
I get: Mathews
I put a condition on it if Mathews isn't a top 18 RB this year (by total points, weeks 1-16), then I also receive 2015 1st.
Hopkins was my WR5. Mathews would be my RB5. Honestly, with big RB needy teams in my league, I am hoping to flip him.
I would sit on the RB for a better sell point assuming not shallow.12 Team PPR
Gave Joique Bell, Knowshon Moreno
Got Emmanuel Sanders
I don't play IDP leagues (lol, j/k, haha) but it seems you got Cameron for free.JonB86 said:GAVE: Stephen Hill and Jermichael Finley
RECEIVED: Cecil Shorts and Cameron Jordan
I love getting Shorts and moving Finley for Jordan removed my week 4 bye problem of having Finley and Olsen on the same bye!
Pretty bad. That's a deal you take after Peyton announces his retirement, not before.Start 2QB league.
Gave: Phillip Rivers and Carson Palmer
Got: Peyton Manning and Brian Hartline.
Nice.12 team PPR
gave: Ryan/Ridley/Vereen
got: Cam/LBell/Bowe
Hmm, I think I prefer Team B. But it's pretty close. Good trade.12 team PPR, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 3 RB/WR/TE
Team A trades:
David Wilson
Danny Amendola
Team B trades:
Ray Rice
Mike Williams
I agree I like what Team B gets, but I love David Wilson. I could see why others would prefer Team AHmm, I think I prefer Team B. But it's pretty close. Good trade.12 team PPR, 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 3 RB/WR/TE
Team A trades:
David Wilson
Danny Amendola
Team B trades:
Ray Rice
Mike Williams
Team B may regret this oneNon-PPR
Team A gives Mendenhall
Team B gives mid to late 2014 2nd and Quinton Patton
Criminally cheap price to get Bradford. Really love his upside this year and long term. Congrats to team B!Team A Traded: Sam Bradford
Team B Traded: 2014 3rd Round Pick
If he's an RB2 away from championship, it's not an awful win-now move.Team B may regret this oneNon-PPR
Team A gives Mendenhall
Team B gives mid to late 2014 2nd and Quinton Patton
Me too, though I would question giving up a significant amount more in a dynasty league just because of the brown injury.msudaisy26 said:I would be interested to see any trades involving David Wilson after Brown broke his leg.
I don't see how Mendenhall becomes a difference maker for a championship team.LususV said:If he's an RB2 away from championship, it's not an awful win-now move.The Captain said:Team B may regret this oneNon-PPR
Team A gives Mendenhall
Team B gives mid to late 2014 2nd and Quinton Patton
In a league with no PPR and a RB flex option WR are greatly devalued. But I agree than Team A won both trades.Team A rapes team B badly in both deals, especially the first one.
Yes WRs are devalued, but I also dont care much for Lacy to be honest.In a league with no PPR and a RB flex option WR are greatly devalued. But I agree than Team A won both trades.Team A rapes team B badly in both deals, especially the first one.