Good luck!I have 130.72 points with Murray and C. Johnson to go tonight in a large GPP. Its a longshot but if they can combine for 50 points...
Daily fantasy is getting ready to generate more losers in 2015 than ever before. Each year in the history of daily fantasy sports has been bigger than the last, and September has become the biggest month for new fans trying the game, which combines the stats-jockeying of traditional fantasy contests with the thrills of old-fashioned sports betting. (Fantasy sports are exempted from the federal ban on sports gambling.)
One thing behind some of the "studies" referred to in the article -- the data was crunched from MLB season. Making any comparisons from MLB and NBA to NFL are going to require a huge jump, as the scope of the player pools is much more niche and the NFL probably draws at least 10x more casual players.To get to the size their investors are expecting requires a continuous stream of new players lured by ever-increasing prize pools with the help of muscular advertising campaigns. These ads never spell out a simple truth about daily fantasy competitions: While any player might get lucky on the back of a handful of entries, over time nearly all of the prize money flows to a tiny elite equipped with elaborate statistical modeling and automated tools that can manage hundreds of entries at once and identify the weakest opponents.
And 2 of those rushes were from Tannehill I think (I know he had at least one of them). They were at 4 rushes (including Tannehill's) and 25 passes at one point.Washington does have an above average run D (12th in 2014) but i blame the coaching staff. The Dolphins had something like 5 rushes at halftime. They went away from running the ball way to early.Sunday Only: 109 Points cash
Taylor
Lacy
Hill
OBJ
Dez
Adams
Olsen
McManus
Jets
Regular: Around 60 points, think if three MNF players have big game could still win some of my cash games, maybe most. A lot of top WRs had subpar games. Miller had 8 and Olsen about 2, lets see if I can comeback. Obviously if Bradford goes crazy with Matthews and Julio has a huge game I should win some of them.
Bradford
Lacy
Miller 8
Julio
Matthews
Adams
Olsen 2
Dan Bailey
Jets
Had a bit more of the Bradford lineup in cash games. I think making lineups is tough because you have to try to create a near optimal lineup. You have to figure which players are most likely going to do well, like Jeremy Hill. Its tricky because once I go with Bradford, Lacy, Adams, Matthews and Olsen, it really limits who I can use at # 2 RB. I admit seeing Ivory bruise his way while Lamar Miller had like 3 yards at halftime was frustrating because he was cheaper.
A lot depends on game script, if Jets fell behind it would be different. You have to recognize prime matchups and players with heavy workload. Lamar should have gotten more work though and Miami played a wierd game where they fell behind 0-10 and they didn't get much offense going the whole game. Still Washington has a strong rush defense. It can happen to any RB because even clear favorites can fall behind and the run game is dashed. Also note which teams use their RBs no matter if they fall behind so a Forte is safe but Lamar maybe not so much as seen in week 1.
Tyrod did reasonably well, but the money everyone saved by using him was likely not spent well (I know mine wasn't) since the players you would typically spend that money on were terrible producers.Sitting at 98.5 and done with my Tyrod lineups. Currently winning all of them but I see many folks behind me with bguys going tonight at QB and WR. No idea if I'll still be in the money but probably not.
Good thing I entered a bunch of Brady/Gronk lineups to hedge.
To your point, the books took a beating yesterday.Well after today Im convinced Vegas took the summer off. The lines today were a hot mess
yes pleaseWeek 2 salaries are up on Fanduel. Should we start a Week 2 thread?
Taylor - $6,300 - at home again, this time vs. NE. Could be another week of value here although not as much as this week.
Bradford - $7,500 - will be incredibly high owned if he goes off tonight.
Mariota - $7,400 - playing Cleveland.
Gronk - $8,300 - seems to be a must roster at this price.
In McManus we trustI went real light this week mostly wanting to observe before making $ commits. I may do that for a few weeks and then decide if I want to go after NFL dfs again. I lost 5 grand last year. If I get going again it will be at DK. Just poking around FD with $50 bucks and I am getting hurt in both small leagues and cash games by kickers. I only lose about half if Murray has a big night.
There are various factors, in certain cash leagues you might end up playing more sharps. Also the large double ups that have no entry limit you can see many pros entering many lineups.I was honestly kind of surprised and a little discouraged by how sharp the majority of lineups seemed to be. I don't recall exactly but I feel like Tyrod was ~50% owned in one of the big double ups. Lacy too. Hoping it was just a fluke this week that the top plays were so obvious.
Im seeing about the same thing. The variance on the triple ups Im in ranges from 90-110 in some. Thats about 10 contests. The double ups( Thursday and Sunday) Im in range about 80-105 at the moment, with most somewhere between 85-95. Thats across across about 125 contests.Taking a look at Week 1 -- still MNF games to go, but that should affect this data equally and not change the conclusion.
The BIG Double up (with multiple entries) = current score to cash is 85.
Smaller Double Ups (~500 single entries) = current average score to cash is 86.17, measured across 6 contests with a range of 84.6 to 88.
Once again, looks like the Multi-Entry is easier (although two single entry Doubles are currently cut off at 84.6 and 84.8, so there is some variance where the Singles could be better). However, 4 of the 6 Single Entry Doubles are currently cut off above 85 (86.1, 86.2, 87.4, and 88).
I didn't find it surprising that Tyrod Taylor was highly owned but the 50% level in many contests was surprising. I was even more surprised that in the 43 low entry ($1-$5) head-to-head contests I entered he was used by 25 of my opponents.I was honestly kind of surprised and a little discouraged by how sharp the majority of lineups seemed to be. I don't recall exactly but I feel like Tyrod was ~50% owned in one of the big double ups. Lacy too. Hoping it was just a fluke this week that the top plays were so obvious.
Not sure where you guys were playing, but the Tyrod's ownership was 28.8% in FD's $250K BIG Double-up and only 12.0% in the same contest on DK.I didn't find it surprising that Tyrod Taylor was highly owned but the 50% level in many contests was surprising. I was even more surprised that in the 43 low entry ($1-$5) head-to-head contests I entered he was used by 25 of my opponents.I was honestly kind of surprised and a little discouraged by how sharp the majority of lineups seemed to be. I don't recall exactly but I feel like Tyrod was ~50% owned in one of the big double ups. Lacy too. Hoping it was just a fluke this week that the top plays were so obvious.
Will Tips and Picks be only written for DK this year?Not sure where you guys were playing, but the Tyrod's ownership was 28.8% in FD's $250K BIG Double-up and only 12.0% in the same contest on DK.I didn't find it surprising that Tyrod Taylor was highly owned but the 50% level in many contests was surprising. I was even more surprised that in the 43 low entry ($1-$5) head-to-head contests I entered he was used by 25 of my opponents.I was honestly kind of surprised and a little discouraged by how sharp the majority of lineups seemed to be. I don't recall exactly but I feel like Tyrod was ~50% owned in one of the big double ups. Lacy too. Hoping it was just a fluke this week that the top plays were so obvious.
Game selection is as important to your bottom line as your selections...keep that in mind for Week #2.
Yessir...unfortunately, we have so much content to write that Dodds felt it was prudent to have people write for only one major site; I will have DK.Will Tips and Picks be only written for DK this year?Not sure where you guys were playing, but the Tyrod's ownership was 28.8% in FD's $250K BIG Double-up and only 12.0% in the same contest on DK.I didn't find it surprising that Tyrod Taylor was highly owned but the 50% level in many contests was surprising. I was even more surprised that in the 43 low entry ($1-$5) head-to-head contests I entered he was used by 25 of my opponents.I was honestly kind of surprised and a little discouraged by how sharp the majority of lineups seemed to be. I don't recall exactly but I feel like Tyrod was ~50% owned in one of the big double ups. Lacy too. Hoping it was just a fluke this week that the top plays were so obvious.
Game selection is as important to your bottom line as your selections...keep that in mind for Week #2.
:( Makes sense and that's what I thought. I'm trying to play DK a little bit more this year, just never seem to do as well as on FD. I'll be checking out T&P's anyways as some of these guys crossover. All the content this year is amazing...you guys have really taken it up a few notches just from last year.Yessir...unfortunately, we have so much content to write that Dodds felt it was prudent to have people write for only one major site; I will have DK.Will Tips and Picks be only written for DK this year?Not sure where you guys were playing, but the Tyrod's ownership was 28.8% in FD's $250K BIG Double-up and only 12.0% in the same contest on DK.I didn't find it surprising that Tyrod Taylor was highly owned but the 50% level in many contests was surprising. I was even more surprised that in the 43 low entry ($1-$5) head-to-head contests I entered he was used by 25 of my opponents.I was honestly kind of surprised and a little discouraged by how sharp the majority of lineups seemed to be. I don't recall exactly but I feel like Tyrod was ~50% owned in one of the big double ups. Lacy too. Hoping it was just a fluke this week that the top plays were so obvious.
Game selection is as important to your bottom line as your selections...keep that in mind for Week #2.
If you have specific FD-related questions that you want to pose, my Twitter handle is the same as my DFS name (@tipandpick); I try to answer all questions there...
Boldin --> MatthewsMonday only play for tonight.....
- QB
- Sam Bradford
- PHI @ ATL7:10PM EDT
- RB
Adrian Peterson
MIN @ SF10:20PM EDT
- RB
DeMarco Murray
PHI @ ATL7:10PM EDT
- WR
Julio Jones
ATL V PHI7:10PM EDT
- WR
Anquan Boldin
SF V MIN10:20PM EDT
- WR
Charles Johnson
MIN @ SF10:20PM EDT
- TE
Brent Celek
PHI @ ATL7:10PM EDT
- K
Blair Walsh
MIN @ SF10:20PM EDT
- D
Minnesota Vikings
MIN @ SF10:20PM EDT
I think we'll be fine with our Bradford lineups. With the cutoff sitting around 85 points for 50/50's, I see us on on the right side.Regular: Around 60 points, think if three MNF players have big game could still win some of my cash games, maybe most. A lot of top WRs had subpar games. Miller had 8 and Olsen about 2, lets see if I can comeback. Obviously if Bradford goes crazy with Matthews and Julio has a huge game I should win some of them.
Bradford
Lacy
Miller 8
Julio
Matthews
Adams
Olsen 2
Dan Bailey
Jets
Also McManus had 17 pts and like 35% or more had him. That makes it a bit tougher.I think we'll be fine with our Bradford lineups. With the cutoff sitting around 85 points for 50/50's, I see us on on the right side.Regular: Around 60 points, think if three MNF players have big game could still win some of my cash games, maybe most. A lot of top WRs had subpar games. Miller had 8 and Olsen about 2, lets see if I can comeback. Obviously if Bradford goes crazy with Matthews and Julio has a huge game I should win some of them.
Bradford
Lacy
Miller 8
Julio
Matthews
Adams
Olsen 2
Dan Bailey
Jets
It is tough because I think 30% have Bradford, 37% Matthews and like 50% have Julio. It seems the games are not that soft as the casual players know to use these three players. If the cash games were not that hard you would think we could still win. Lamar had 8 pts and Olsen doing bad makes the cash games in general seem not that easy if still cannot cash with good performances.
I'm hoping for "very low". But lots of ownership in tonight's games.How much higher than 85 or so do we think the average 50/50 cutoff will be? I'm sitting at 98.5 with my Tyrod lineup thinking there's little chance of placing with it despite being fairly high as of now. Praying for a field goal fest like many of the other projected shootouts ended up.
I have entries in the large $2 multi entry double up, the $5 multi entry double up, and about 6 single entry $2 double ups.Im seeing about the same thing. The variance on the triple ups Im in ranges from 90-110 in some. Thats about 10 contests. The double ups( Thursday and Sunday) Im in range about 80-105 at the moment, with most somewhere between 85-95. Thats across across about 125 contests.Taking a look at Week 1 -- still MNF games to go, but that should affect this data equally and not change the conclusion.
The BIG Double up (with multiple entries) = current score to cash is 85.
Smaller Double Ups (~500 single entries) = current average score to cash is 86.17, measured across 6 contests with a range of 84.6 to 88.
Once again, looks like the Multi-Entry is easier (although two single entry Doubles are currently cut off at 84.6 and 84.8, so there is some variance where the Singles could be better). However, 4 of the 6 Single Entry Doubles are currently cut off above 85 (86.1, 86.2, 87.4, and 88).
I only entered single entry though. Does anyone have data on the larger multi-entries?
Now 94.4. In the 50s in my cash games out of 100 people. If Julio continues, Bradford and Matthews produce something I think I have a good chance to cash at least some which would turn a profitable week.Fantasysports1 said:Also McManus had 17 pts and like 35% or more had him. That makes it a bit tougher.JTK said:I think we'll be fine with our Bradford lineups. With the cutoff sitting around 85 points for 50/50's, I see us on on the right side.Regular: Around 60 points, think if three MNF players have big game could still win some of my cash games, maybe most. A lot of top WRs had subpar games. Miller had 8 and Olsen about 2, lets see if I can comeback. Obviously if Bradford goes crazy with Matthews and Julio has a huge game I should win some of them.
Bradford
Lacy
Miller 8
Julio
Matthews
Adams
Olsen 2
Dan Bailey
Jets
It is tough because I think 30% have Bradford, 37% Matthews and like 50% have Julio. It seems the games are not that soft as the casual players know to use these three players. If the cash games were not that hard you would think we could still win. Lamar had 8 pts and Olsen doing bad makes the cash games in general seem not that easy if still cannot cash with good performances.
Ended up doing well considering Olsen dragged down all my teams. 56% return. Julio and Matthews came up big.Not the best of weeks for me. I tweaked lineups to go pretty much all-in on Olsen over my initial TEs (all of which seemed to catch 2 TDs a piece) figuring their ceilings are all about the same but Olsen had the highest floor. I have quite a bit of Ryan, Julio, and Mathews tonight so I likely won't be down much. But, if I had stuck with Seferian-Jenkins, Eifert, and Reed (my initial mix of TEs) I think I would be cashing in every contest.
Not bad.. I was happy to win $7 off my free $5 meaning I get to try again this weekDid alright about a 40% return on my main play site and tripled my free 5 bucks on fantasyscore if they ever post the results.
For reference - the BIG multi-entry cut offs were:So close in one GPP. I plated 168 with Dobson and Gostowski. I had Stevie Johnson and Brown as my WR3 and PK initially but decided that I would be too invested in Stevie on my Sunday contests and that Dobson would have low ownership numbers. And so it goes.
Ultimately I'm down $3 for the week overall (on $62 invested). I'm thrilled with that given how heavily invested I was in ODB, Dez, Calvin, and Olsen.
For those who wish to track such things, here are the scores needed to cash in my doubles, triples, and quints. I will have a few more weeks essentially at this level, then hopefully will start to feel better about getting some more in play and will have $5 plays as well for a little better comparison.
Thursday --
Double-ups ($2): 107.44 (568 single entry), 130.34 (568 single entry)
Triple-up ($2): 122.92 (502 single entry)
Quintuple-up ($2): 135.62 (568 single entry)
Sunday --
Double-ups ($2) (568 single entry): 111.86,116.92, 119.0, 120.04, 119.8, 117.22,
Double-up ($5): 113.52 (227 single entry)
Triple-ups ($2) (502 single entry): 123.5, 120.74, 115.26, 122.66
Quintuple-ups ($2) (558 single entry): 127.44, 127.34,