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**2015 MLB Season Thread: This is how the chapter ends (1 Viewer)

Tulo's contract isn't that bad tbh. I don't know how this helps Colorado, other than freeing up money.

And other than the money commitment, this is (mostly) a lateral move for Toronto, I don't think it precludes any deals for pitching.

 
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Tulo's contract isn't that bad tbh. I don't know how this helps Colorado, other than freeing up money.

And other than the money commitment, this is (mostly) a lateral move for Toronto, I don't think it precludes any deals for pitching.
Unless there is :moneybag: involved, it frees up nothing for Colorado until 2018. And until then, it costs them an extra $2M per, + the $4M buyout

 
Norris apparently not in the deal. So that leaves Hoffman maybe? I'm assuming the wording of minor leaguer means Jays aren't trading Sanchez/Stroman in this.

Also, Devon Travis likely leads off now? (In front of Donaldson, Tulo, Bautista, Edwin and Martin!!!)

 
Norris apparently not in the deal. So that leaves Hoffman maybe? I'm assuming the wording of minor leaguer means Jays aren't trading Sanchez/Stroman in this.

Also, Devon Travis likely leads off now? (In front of Donaldson, Tulo, Bautista, Edwin and Martin!!!)
Astros 5, Jays 3 in wild-card game. Keuchel goes 7.

 
Kills me to see a pitching stud like Hoffman go to the Rockies. Fun trade though. Probably the only offense Tulo could go to and not hurt his value.

 
I don't like the deal for either team... Reyes is a switch hitting table setter... someone has to get on base for the right handed sluggers.

And unless there is another step to the deal for the Rockies, and they can turn Reyes into something, thats not a great haul for the guy that is arguably the best your franchise ever developed

 
I don't like the deal for either team... Reyes is a switch hitting table setter... someone has to get on base for the right handed sluggers.
He's also realistically a DH, 2B or LF at this point, which significantly diminishes his value. Devon Travis will be just fine at the top of the order.

 
Putting the fact that they got Tulo back aside, I can't believe anyone was willing to take Reyes' contract, and I was one of his biggest defenders because of his offensive abilities.

 
I don't like the deal for either team... Reyes is a switch hitting table setter... someone has to get on base for the right handed sluggers.
He's also realistically a DH, 2B or LF at this point, which significantly diminishes his value. Devon Travis will be just fine at the top of the order.
Reyes is slightly better at SS than Tulo as far as range, UZR, and def efficiency go. They are both average defensive SS at this point in their careers.

 
I understand the stats say that but my eyes don't believe it for a second. Either I'm not capable of judging it as well as I think or those 2 broke defensive metrics. Maybe both

 
I don't like the deal for either team... Reyes is a switch hitting table setter... someone has to get on base for the right handed sluggers.

And unless there is another step to the deal for the Rockies, and they can turn Reyes into something, thats not a great haul for the guy that is arguably the best your franchise ever developed
Good thing Tulo gets on base far more than Reyes. And Reyes has been a disaster from the right side this year (64 wRC, .613OPS) .

 
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I don't like the deal for either team... Reyes is a switch hitting table setter... someone has to get on base for the right handed sluggers.
He's also realistically a DH, 2B or LF at this point, which significantly diminishes his value. Devon Travis will be just fine at the top of the order.
Reyes is slightly better at SS than Tulo as far as range, UZR, and def efficiency go. They are both average defensive SS at this point in their careers.
Reyes hasn't had a positive UZR since 2008 or DRS since 2007. He is a disaster and shouldn't be playing the position.

Tulo was positive in both UZR and DRS in 2013 and 2014.

 
I think it's a good deal for the Rockies. Since they will never sign top tier pitching they need to stockpile as much talent in the system as they can. Hoffmann, Castro, and Tinoco are three more good young arms with upside.

Reyes was basically taking salary back. They save around $50 million in future liabilities in the exchange. If they can I'm sure they will move Reyes, even though I'm sure they will eat a good chunk of his contract.

 
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Reyes's fantasy value actually probably takes a hit, right? Rare for a guy going to Colorado.

But he played in a great hitters' park before and gets a downgrade in lineup, which I think was helping to boost him a bit at this point.

Maybe he will be able to hit a few more homers or additional extra base hits in the spacious outfields (and there's also the Coors road effect), but overall I feel like it is a downgrade.

 
So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.
Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.


And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.

Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.


Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?
No, but teams don't sign guys in their late 20s and early 30s hoping they'll have career years at 35. Do you think the Tigers signed VMART the first time thinking he would have a career year at 34? I don't understand what you are getting at, the Cubs signed Jon Lester and the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez because of their long-term consistency and the fact they are among the best at their positions. Teams are fully aware that these players are going to have some off years, but are signing them for a level of performance over time, not because they are banking on career year after career year.

The Tigers signed Anibal at 28 and got a Cy Young type season out of what is supposed to be a #3/#4 pitcher. He's easily going to earn the value of his contract. Why would I or anyone else expect him to be better than his career year? His age and performance history say he's due to regress.
Right, but I'm kind of coming at all of this with a theory in the back of my mind that is not fully fleshed out that you are just not going to get the right value ever by spending on big ticket free agents. With the way that the salary structure is set up and teams seeing more value in locking up their young guys earlier, I just don't see how teams can really extract good value through high-priced, older free agents.

Of course, perhaps you don't need to extract optimal value, but try to at least get the best value for what is available and maybe that it is good enough to win.

 
So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.
Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.


And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.

Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.


Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?
No, but teams don't sign guys in their late 20s and early 30s hoping they'll have career years at 35. Do you think the Tigers signed VMART the first time thinking he would have a career year at 34? I don't understand what you are getting at, the Cubs signed Jon Lester and the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez because of their long-term consistency and the fact they are among the best at their positions. Teams are fully aware that these players are going to have some off years, but are signing them for a level of performance over time, not because they are banking on career year after career year.

The Tigers signed Anibal at 28 and got a Cy Young type season out of what is supposed to be a #3/#4 pitcher. He's easily going to earn the value of his contract. Why would I or anyone else expect him to be better than his career year? His age and performance history say he's due to regress.
Right, but I'm kind of coming at all of this with a theory in the back of my mind that is not fully fleshed out that you are just not going to get the right value ever by spending on big ticket free agents. With the way that the salary structure is set up and teams seeing more value in locking up their young guys earlier, I just don't see how teams can really extract good value through high-priced, older free agents.

Of course, perhaps you don't need to extract optimal value, but try to at least get the best value for what is available and maybe that it is good enough to win.
This is a great point.

The most interesting part, to me, is when you put this context around the current debate about trading draft picks as bargaining ramps up for the next CBA. The draft is becoming more and more integral to what we call "excess value," and teams have a huge worry about allowing picks to be traded: somebody will get taken advantage of. It's funny, because that's a thought that exists in every single team's thoughts on trading draft picks while they also all think they won't be the team to make a bad deal.

If I were building a baseball team (what an awesome job that would be), I'd be right there with you LBL. I'd be trying to buy out arb and FA years whenever I could (and avoid signing older FAs, except perhaps pitchers, especially relievers, on short term deals). To analogize to the NBA, it's a little like a Steph Curry extension: there's some risk obviously, but you could end up with a player earning far less than he'd be worth otherwise. I think the best current example would be Baltimore, who should absolutely try to get Machado signed to an extension of some sort through a couple years of FA.

 
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So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.
Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.


And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.

Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.


Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?
No, but teams don't sign guys in their late 20s and early 30s hoping they'll have career years at 35. Do you think the Tigers signed VMART the first time thinking he would have a career year at 34? I don't understand what you are getting at, the Cubs signed Jon Lester and the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez because of their long-term consistency and the fact they are among the best at their positions. Teams are fully aware that these players are going to have some off years, but are signing them for a level of performance over time, not because they are banking on career year after career year.

The Tigers signed Anibal at 28 and got a Cy Young type season out of what is supposed to be a #3/#4 pitcher. He's easily going to earn the value of his contract. Why would I or anyone else expect him to be better than his career year? His age and performance history say he's due to regress.
Right, but I'm kind of coming at all of this with a theory in the back of my mind that is not fully fleshed out that you are just not going to get the right value ever by spending on big ticket free agents. With the way that the salary structure is set up and teams seeing more value in locking up their young guys earlier, I just don't see how teams can really extract good value through high-priced, older free agents.

Of course, perhaps you don't need to extract optimal value, but try to at least get the best value for what is available and maybe that it is good enough to win.
This is a great point.

The most interesting part, to me, is when you put this context around the current debate about trading draft picks as bargaining ramps up for the next CBA. The draft is becoming more and more integral to what we call "excess value," and teams have a huge worry about allowing picks to be traded: somebody will get taken advantage of. It's funny, because that's a thought that exists in every single team's thoughts on trading draft picks while they also all think they won't be the team to make a bad deal.

If I were building a baseball team (what an awesome job that would be), I'd be right there with you LBL. I'd be trying to buy out arb and FA years whenever I could (and avoid signing older FAs, except perhaps pitchers, especially relievers, on short term deals). To analogize to the NBA, it's a little like a Steph Curry extension: there's some risk obviously, but you could end up with a player earning far less than he'd be worth otherwise. I think the best current example would be Baltimore, who should absolutely try to get Machado signed to an extension of some sort through a couple years of FA.
I'd be leery of Machado's knees, but I agree in theory. The Cleveland Indians pretty much wrote the book on doing this in the mid-90's when they locked up all their young guys well before free agency. It was a novel concept at the time, and strangely it's one that most other teams didn't really follow until the last five years or so.

 
From the perspective of a team/fan, the Longoria deal (for example) is a dream. But I imagine that for agents that's a horror story that you want to avoid at all costs. You have really ####ed up on behalf of your client by doing that, as well as yourself.

All which is to say that it may not necessarily be that easy. Although Trout's extension, insane as it was, may end up being a bargain throughout its life. But smart agents like Boras avoid not going to free agency like the plague.

 
So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.
Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.


And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.

Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.


Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?
No, but teams don't sign guys in their late 20s and early 30s hoping they'll have career years at 35. Do you think the Tigers signed VMART the first time thinking he would have a career year at 34? I don't understand what you are getting at, the Cubs signed Jon Lester and the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez because of their long-term consistency and the fact they are among the best at their positions. Teams are fully aware that these players are going to have some off years, but are signing them for a level of performance over time, not because they are banking on career year after career year.

The Tigers signed Anibal at 28 and got a Cy Young type season out of what is supposed to be a #3/#4 pitcher. He's easily going to earn the value of his contract. Why would I or anyone else expect him to be better than his career year? His age and performance history say he's due to regress.
Right, but I'm kind of coming at all of this with a theory in the back of my mind that is not fully fleshed out that you are just not going to get the right value ever by spending on big ticket free agents. With the way that the salary structure is set up and teams seeing more value in locking up their young guys earlier, I just don't see how teams can really extract good value through high-priced, older free agents.

Of course, perhaps you don't need to extract optimal value, but try to at least get the best value for what is available and maybe that it is good enough to win.
This is a great point.

The most interesting part, to me, is when you put this context around the current debate about trading draft picks as bargaining ramps up for the next CBA. The draft is becoming more and more integral to what we call "excess value," and teams have a huge worry about allowing picks to be traded: somebody will get taken advantage of. It's funny, because that's a thought that exists in every single team's thoughts on trading draft picks while they also all think they won't be the team to make a bad deal.

If I were building a baseball team (what an awesome job that would be), I'd be right there with you LBL. I'd be trying to buy out arb and FA years whenever I could (and avoid signing older FAs, except perhaps pitchers, especially relievers, on short term deals). To analogize to the NBA, it's a little like a Steph Curry extension: there's some risk obviously, but you could end up with a player earning far less than he'd be worth otherwise. I think the best current example would be Baltimore, who should absolutely try to get Machado signed to an extension of some sort through a couple years of FA.
I'd be leery of Machado's knees, but I agree in theory. The Cleveland Indians pretty much wrote the book on doing this in the mid-90's when they locked up all their young guys well before free agency. It was a novel concept at the time, and strangely it's one that most other teams didn't really follow until the last five years or so.
The knees are definitely the biggest risk there, but without them you wonder if such a team-friendly deal would be possible, don't you? A guy like Arenado is probably going to either A) command more or B) go to arb (he's really close to Super-2 this year, and it will depend on the cutoff I think) and then go get his huge deal if he can't get enough to justify capping his upside.

I really hope to one day be a part of these discussions and phone calls and stuff. Would be simply fascinating all the time.

 
From the perspective of a team/fan, the Longoria deal (for example) is a dream. But I imagine that for agents that's a horror story that you want to avoid at all costs. You have really ####ed up on behalf of your client by doing that, as well as yourself.

All which is to say that it may not necessarily be that easy. Although Trout's extension, insane as it was, may end up being a bargain throughout its life. But smart agents like Boras avoid not going to free agency like the plague.
Yeah, eventually all agents are going to turn down deals like the ones the Royals inked to lock up Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura. Going to get even tougher to lock up young talent as more new local TV deals kick in, too.

 
From the perspective of a team/fan, the Longoria deal (for example) is a dream. But I imagine that for agents that's a horror story that you want to avoid at all costs. You have really ####ed up on behalf of your client by doing that, as well as yourself.

All which is to say that it may not necessarily be that easy. Although Trout's extension, insane as it was, may end up being a bargain throughout its life. But smart agents like Boras avoid not going to free agency like the plague.
Yeah, eventually all agents are going to turn down deals like the ones the Royals inked to lock up Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura. Going to get even tougher to lock up young talent as more new local TV deals kick in, too.
I guess the counter-weight to that is that guys want to start banking the money that's going to be coming to them earlier, or avoid the chance of losing out on money b/c of injuries.

 
From the perspective of a team/fan, the Longoria deal (for example) is a dream. But I imagine that for agents that's a horror story that you want to avoid at all costs. You have really ####ed up on behalf of your client by doing that, as well as yourself.

All which is to say that it may not necessarily be that easy. Although Trout's extension, insane as it was, may end up being a bargain throughout its life. But smart agents like Boras avoid not going to free agency like the plague.
Yeah, eventually all agents are going to turn down deals like the ones the Royals inked to lock up Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura. Going to get even tougher to lock up young talent as more new local TV deals kick in, too.
I guess the counter-weight to that is that guys want to start banking the money that's going to be coming to them earlier, or avoid the chance of losing out on money b/c of injuries.
I wonder where the tipping point is. Clearly, Machado has some incentive to bank his money when he can. On the other hand, a guy like, say, Arenado, doesn't really have the same risks and may be more likely to try and reach free agency even if a "good" extension offer is on the table.

The question is for those guys: how much money do you want to bank vs. the injury risk? In theory, if you think there's a 95% chance you stay healthy, you should want 95% of what would be your expected salary through arb and free agency in order to sign an extension, right?

 
That's pretty much what happened with Perez. He grew up dirt poor, and has said when the Royals offered him seven million dollars guaranteed, to him it sounded like all the money in the world and signing that deal meant his family was out of poverty.

When he tore his meniscus in 2012, he looked like a genius for signing a long-term deal.

When he recovered fully and started knocking extra-base hits, he became the cheapest deal in baseball.

 
Haven't several of these "cheap" long term deals where teams are locking up young players backfired though? Starlin Castro. Matt Moore. Rick Porcello. Jedd Gyorko. It doesn't always work out. There's major risk for the team as well.

 
Haven't several of these "cheap" long term deals where teams are locking up young players backfired though? Starlin Castro. Matt Moore. Rick Porcello. Jedd Gyorko. It doesn't always work out. There's major risk for the team as well.
Risk both if the player tanks or plays too well. That next negotiation could get emotional if there's animosity between player and franchise when the team locks the player up to a deal that plays out as too team-friendly. Take Salvy Perez, for example. If he doesn't have agents telling him what evil cheapskates the Royals are for taking advantage of him when he was new to the business, he will by the time his contract is up.

 

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