So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.
The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.
Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.
And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.
Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.
Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?
No, but teams don't sign guys in their late 20s and early 30s hoping they'll have career years at 35. Do you think the Tigers signed VMART the first time thinking he would have a career year at 34? I don't understand what you are getting at, the Cubs signed Jon Lester and the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez because of their long-term consistency and the fact they are among the best at their positions. Teams are fully aware that these players are going to have some off years, but are signing them for a level of performance over time, not because they are banking on career year after career year.
The Tigers signed Anibal at 28 and got a Cy Young type season out of what is supposed to be a #3/#4 pitcher. He's easily going to earn the value of his contract. Why would I or anyone else expect him to be better than his career year? His age and performance history say he's due to regress.
Right, but I'm kind of coming at all of this with a theory in the back of my mind that is not fully fleshed out that you are just not going to get the right value ever by spending on big ticket free agents.
With the way that the salary structure is set up and teams seeing more value in locking up their young guys earlier, I just don't see how teams can really extract good value through high-priced, older free agents.
Of course, perhaps you don't need to extract optimal value, but try to at least get the best value for what is available and maybe that it is good enough to win.
This is a great point.
The most interesting part, to me, is when you put this context around the current debate about trading draft picks as bargaining ramps up for the next CBA. The draft is becoming more and more integral to what we call "excess value," and teams have a huge worry about allowing picks to be traded: somebody will get taken advantage of. It's funny, because that's a thought that exists in every single team's thoughts on trading draft picks while they also all think they won't be the team to make a bad deal.
If I were building a baseball team (what an awesome job that would be), I'd be right there with you LBL. I'd be trying to buy out arb and FA years whenever I could (and avoid signing older FAs, except perhaps pitchers, especially relievers, on short term deals). To analogize to the NBA, it's a little like a Steph Curry extension: there's some risk obviously, but you could end up with a player earning far less than he'd be worth otherwise. I think the best current example would be Baltimore, who should absolutely try to get Machado signed to an extension of some sort through a couple years of FA.