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**2015 MLB Season Thread: This is how the chapter ends (1 Viewer)

Don't like this trade at all for Toronto.
Yeah, can't see them being the favorite to keep him. Not at all.
The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs in 21 years, easily the longest drought in the four major North American sports. They're two games out of the Wild Card right now and the team they're chasing is six games under .500 over the last two weeks. If they find a way into a division series I bet their fans will be just fine with sacrificing Norris as part of the effort, and if they buy more tickets and watch more games as a result then the front office will be happy too. And of course they get a comp pick as part of the package too.
I don't think they get a pick for Price. Players traded in season can't be given a QO. Or am I imagining that?
correct

 
On the Jays, they're also the best run differential in baseball, they should be better than their record. That,plus the drought, plus aging Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, Dickey etc... It's time to make their move.
You're right, their record should be better, although according to BP's 3rd-order standings, it's not as good as their run differential would suggest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The "drought"/"we need to do something to be relevant" arguments are complete mularkey to any reasonable-thinking person. Ask Padre fans what it's like to be "relevant." Ton of dead payroll! Gutted farm system! Relevance! Let's stare at Justin Upton for another day! They're great pub for GM's and almost unquestionably lauded, because the cost down the road isn't going to be felt for years, and it's a lot less tangible than David Price taking the mound.

As is the aging "_____" argument. Bautista still has prime years left. Tulo and Donaldson as well. Dickey and Buehrle need to be replaced, I don't think their age is really relevant.

 
Been getting PM's about this all day:

1) There are two different Kaminskys.

2) Yes, David Price and Mark Price are related, but they are fairly distant cousins.

 
Guy in my fantasy league had 3 closers on his roster going into this week... Storen, JJohnson, and Soria. What are the odds?

 
AL keeps getting better. yanks gonna do anything?
I like what the Yankees are (not) doing.

They're the Yankees. Their window is open forever. They can afford to keep their top prospects instead of trading them for guys they can probably sign in FA eventually anyway.

 
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"Good said:
On the Jays, they're also the best run differential in baseball, they should be better than their record. That,plus the drought, plus aging Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, Dickey etc... It's time to make their move.
You're right, their record should be better, although according to BP's 3rd-order standings, it's not as good as their run differential would suggest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The "drought"/"we need to do something to be relevant" arguments are complete mularkey to any reasonable-thinking person. Ask Padre fans what it's like to be "relevant." Ton of dead payroll! Gutted farm system! Relevance! Let's stare at Justin Upton for another day! They're great pub for GM's and almost unquestionably lauded, because the cost down the road isn't going to be felt for years, and it's a lot less tangible than David Price taking the mound.

As is the aging "_____" argument. Bautista still has prime years left. Tulo and Donaldson as well. Dickey and Buehrle need to be replaced, I don't think their age is really relevant.
I said nothing about being relevant, they'll always be relevant here, they're the only team in the country.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
On the Jays, they're also the best run differential in baseball, they should be better than their record. That,plus the drought, plus aging Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, Dickey etc... It's time to make their move.
You're right, their record should be better, although according to BP's 3rd-order standings, it's not as good as their run differential would suggest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The "drought"/"we need to do something to be relevant" arguments are complete mularkey to any reasonable-thinking person. Ask Padre fans what it's like to be "relevant." Ton of dead payroll! Gutted farm system! Relevance! Let's stare at Justin Upton for another day! They're great pub for GM's and almost unquestionably lauded, because the cost down the road isn't going to be felt for years, and it's a lot less tangible than David Price taking the mound.

As is the aging "_____" argument. Bautista still has prime years left. Tulo and Donaldson as well. Dickey and Buehrle need to be replaced, I don't think their age is really relevant.
Actually, on further review, this whole post is garbage (maybe more likely trolling).

The Padres have nothing do with this, the Jays aren't bringing 100 crappy outfielders and marginal upgrades, they're bringing an ace, the best SS in baseball and a reliable reliever.

The farm system was "gutted" two years ago, so it's remarkable they have so many prospects to land these guys... except they didn't empty the cupboard then and they aren't now. Does anyone honestly care about Matt Boyd and Jairo Lebourt?? Both had 3 good months, and were cashed in, neither was in the top 10 in the latest Jays MLB pipeline rankings. Sure Norris and Hoffman could be great, but Price and Tulowitzki are great.

The bullpen is massively upgraded by moving Sanchez in as the 8th inning guy and now likely Hawkins as the 7th inning guy.

And for all the prospects they traded away to the Astros/Mets/Marlins two years ago (Oh noes, they gutted the system!!), the only one anyone really gives a #### about is Syndergaard. What will they ever do having given up uber studs like Travis DL'Arnaud, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, etc... prospects are beautiful as long as they're prospects, then when you have to actually use them, most of them are ####.

And if you want to take bets on Edwin, Bautista, Martin, maybe even Tulo producing at the same level they are now, even two years from now, I'm all for it. In terms of Buehrle/Dickey needing to be replaced and age having nothing to do with it... that's the only reason Buehrle needs to be replaced. He's been ####### awesome this season, if he was 27 and signed for 5 more years that would be great, but he isn't and he's not.

 
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Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 58s59 seconds ago

Dodgers absorbed about $42 million in this one blockbuster deal -- or more $ than TB's total payroll in 4 of Friedman's 10 years there.

:lmao:
Funny but those are probably his first 4 years. Rays are around 80M now which is still cheap but not that bad.
I think LA's thinking is that if Wood was a UFA right now, he'd easily fetch that much over the next four years. So $42mm + whatever he gets in arb, etc., it probably isn't a bad deal.

I also get that sense that they just weren't impressed at all by Oliviera, and wanted to get out from under him ASAP. 30 years old, blocked at 3B by Turner, scuffling a bit at AAA, I think that turns him into a trade chip. They spent a lot of dough (they obv have it), but they didn't really hurt themselves beyond 2015.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
On the Jays, they're also the best run differential in baseball, they should be better than their record. That,plus the drought, plus aging Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, Dickey etc... It's time to make their move.
You're right, their record should be better, although according to BP's 3rd-order standings, it's not as good as their run differential would suggest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The "drought"/"we need to do something to be relevant" arguments are complete mularkey to any reasonable-thinking person. Ask Padre fans what it's like to be "relevant." Ton of dead payroll! Gutted farm system! Relevance! Let's stare at Justin Upton for another day! They're great pub for GM's and almost unquestionably lauded, because the cost down the road isn't going to be felt for years, and it's a lot less tangible than David Price taking the mound.

As is the aging "_____" argument. Bautista still has prime years left. Tulo and Donaldson as well. Dickey and Buehrle need to be replaced, I don't think their age is really relevant.
Actually, on further review, this whole post is garbage (maybe more likely trolling).

The Padres have nothing do with this, the Jays aren't bringing 100 crappy outfielders and marginal upgrades, they're bringing an ace, the best SS in baseball and a reliable reliever.

The farm system was "gutted" two years ago, so it's remarkable they have so many prospects to land these guys... except they didn't empty the cupboard then and they aren't now. Does anyone honestly care about Matt Boyd and Jairo Lebourt?? Both had 3 good months, and were cashed in, neither was in the top 10 in the latest Jays MLB pipeline rankings. Sure Norris and Hoffman could be great, but Price and Tulowitzki are great.

The bullpen is massively upgraded by moving Sanchez in as the 8th inning guy and now likely Hawkins as the 7th inning guy.

And for all the prospects they traded away to the Astros/Mets/Marlins two years ago (Oh noes, they gutted the system!!), the only one anyone really gives a #### about is Syndergaard. What will they ever do having given up uber studs like Travis DL'Arnaud, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, etc... prospects are beautiful as long as they're prospects, then when you have to actually use them, most of them are ####.

And if you want to take bets on Edwin, Bautista, Martin, maybe even Tulo producing at the same level they are now, even two years from now, I'm all for it. In terms of Buehrle/Dickey needing to be replaced and age having nothing to do with it... that's the only reason Buehrle needs to be replaced. He's been ####### awesome this season, if he was 27 and signed for 5 more years that would be great, but he isn't and he's not.
Pull your Long Johns out of your ###, Drake.

I like the Tulo deal. I am pretty sure I like the Donaldson deal for Toronto's end, he's going to start getting expensive and he isn't 24, but he should be able to produce at or near this level throughout FA. And seeing what guys are fetching at the deadline, I think there's a good chance the A's bungled this by not waiting until this deadline. The market for Donaldson wasn't going anywhere, and they could've at least gotten a bead on how Lawrie would be.

My beef is only with the Price deal, and the notion that there's any sort of value in just making the playoffs. That's dumb. You're right that a lot of prospects don't amount to anything, but Price is a 5-6 WAR player, which means he's worth, what, 3 WAR ROS?

And Buehrle's xFIP is 4.01. Knock me over with a feather!

 
<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="shadyridr" data-cid="18224938" data-time="1438293297"><p><p>Because he's the only guy on that team that's hot.

 
Yankees are going to pull off some kooky multi-player deal with SD tomorrow right?

Giants are about to acquire Mike Leake, which is about as Giants-y as it gets.

 
"Good said:
On the Jays, they're also the best run differential in baseball, they should be better than their record. That,plus the drought, plus aging Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, Dickey etc... It's time to make their move.
You're right, their record should be better, although according to BP's 3rd-order standings, it's not as good as their run differential would suggest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The "drought"/"we need to do something to be relevant" arguments are complete mularkey to any reasonable-thinking person. Ask Padre fans what it's like to be "relevant." Ton of dead payroll! Gutted farm system! Relevance! Let's stare at Justin Upton for another day! They're great pub for GM's and almost unquestionably lauded, because the cost down the road isn't going to be felt for years, and it's a lot less tangible than David Price taking the mound.

As is the aging "_____" argument. Bautista still has prime years left. Tulo and Donaldson as well. Dickey and Buehrle need to be replaced, I don't think their age is really relevant.
You rang?

Not going to argue things are skittles and rainbows in the Gaslamp right now, but the backlash is getting out of hand. After watching virtually every Padre prospect bust since Khalil Greene, it's surprising seeing ex Pads make strong debuts but it's still early. Jace is now starting to look more like 2014 Jace, and neither Joe Ross nor Wisler were touted to be this good, so I feel like there will be regression coming shortly. The exception may be Trea Turner - he's a potential franchise MI, IMO.

Pads played a tough 1st half schedule and a ton of road games, so it was a bad time for Kemp to go into a funk and JUp to disappear late in the half. Kemp is back to playing at an All Star level and not coincidentally the Padres are getting close to .500 with upcoming series against the Marlins, Brew Crew, and Phils. Friars should be at .500 10 games from now with a favorable schedule in August and Sept.

Was that worth the salary taken on (mostly Kemp at 5/75, Shields 4/70, Kimbrel 4/46, and BJ 3/46) while dealing prospects that no one had in the top 50? All the recent articles crushing Preller fail to mention that the Upton contract was really only ~ $20M in additional $' since he shipped out $25M in essential dead money in Quentin and Maybin.

Padres are drawing 5k more per game in '15 vs '14. I can tell you that is directly related to Matt Kemp, Shields, and the guns blazing approach to the offseason. Over the course of the season, what's 500k more fans and a positive, optimistic buzz worth to a franchise? Dave Cameron and Grantland can point to Grandal's WAR and Kemp's defensive liabilities all they want, but when Seth Smith is voted the "Face of the Franchise" on MLB network in November, you've got bigger problems than simply UZR and pitch framing can solve. In the end, baseball is entertainment, and being boring is worse than being mediocre & invisible.

Don't get me wrong - I think Preller has made some obvious errors. Myers is an abortion in CF and firing Bud Black was perhaps the worst decision he's made as GM IMO. But as some who has watched 150 Padre games a year for the past 13 years, I have absolutely zero buyers remorse for the offseason moves Preller made, even as he's about to undo a couple of them today. He took a shot, will reload, and take another shot. And that's light years more interesting than the previous regime who did nothing more than draft poorly and hoard cash.

 
Off topic, but since this is where the best posters on the board hang out, WTF is up with Jay Bilas' Twitter shtick? I recently adde him and knew he was a rap fan, but his daily lyric is just awful. Is he that oblivious?

 
Yanks gonna be dumb and trade prospects for Kimbrel?
Have the Royals taught you nothing?
Yanks already have a great bullpen (last night aside). Warren, Wilson, Shreve, Betances, Miller. If they are gonna get Kimbrel as just a money dump thats one thing but if they are gonna give up prospects for him I think its a big mistake when their starting pitching needs so much help. It doesnt matter how dominant a bullpen is when they are rolling out guys like CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Nate Eovaldi in the playoffs and they are down 5-0 after 5 innings.

 
You rang?

Not going to argue things are skittles and rainbows in the Gaslamp right now, but the backlash is getting out of hand. After watching virtually every Padre prospect bust since Khalil Greene, it's surprising seeing ex Pads make strong debuts but it's still early. Jace is now starting to look more like 2014 Jace, and neither Joe Ross nor Wisler were touted to be this good, so I feel like there will be regression coming shortly. The exception may be Trea Turner - he's a potential franchise MI, IMO. This is one long, crazy logical fallacy.

Pads played a tough 1st half schedule and a ton of road games, (53 out of 102 games on the road, nuts) so it was a bad time for Kemp to go into a funk (Current fWAR of 0.0. Wonder if the arthritis had anything to do with that) and JUp to disappear late in the half. Kemp is back to playing at an All Star level (Sustainable!) and not coincidentally the Padres are getting close to .500 with upcoming series against the Marlins, Brew Crew, and Phils. Friars should be at .500 10 games from now with a favorable schedule in August and Sept. (YES! Keep the band tog)ether!)

Was that worth the salary taken on (mostly Kemp at 5/75 :no: , Shields 4/70 :no: , Kimbrel 4/46 :no: , and BJ 3/46 :lmao: ) while dealing prospects that no one had in the top 50? All the recent articles crushing Preller fail to mention that the Upton contract was really only ~ $20M in additional $' since he shipped out $25M in essential dead money in Quentin and Maybin. Still too much.

Padres are drawing 5k more per game in '15 vs '14. I can tell you that is directly related to Matt Kemp, Shields, and the guns blazing approach to the offseason. Over the course of the season, what's 500k more fans and a positive, optimistic buzz worth to a franchise? (Started off at ~40k during the weekends, already down to ~35k. Wonder which way that number is headed.) Dave Cameron and Grantland can point to Grandal's WAR and Kemp's defensive liabilities all they want, but when Seth Smith is voted the "Face of the Franchise" on MLB network in November, you've got bigger problems than simply UZR and pitch framing can solve (like having a GM who doesn't know what he's doing). In the end, baseball is entertainment, and being boring is worse than being mediocre & invisible. (Or you could just try to build a good team)

Don't get me wrong - I think Preller has made some obvious errors. (llo) Myers is an abortion in CF (who saw that coming) and firing Bud Black was perhaps the worst decision he's made as GM IMO (bad but not in the top 3). But as some who has watched 150 Padre games a year for the past 13 years (go outside), I have absolutely zero buyers remorse for the offseason moves Preller made (that's because you have cognitive dissonance), even as he's about to undo a couple of them today. He took a shot (gun wasn't loaded), will reload (hypothetically), and take another shot (can't wait!). And that's light years more interesting than the previous regime who did nothing more than draft poorly and hoard cash.
 
Yankees going to get Capps, Kimbrel and Chapman, every pitcher will get one inning every day. New market inefficiency, starters no longer exist.

 
Kemp is back to playing at an All Star level (Sustainable!) and not coincidentally the Padres are getting close to .500 with upcoming series against the Marlins, Brew Crew, and Phils. Friars should be at .500 10 games from now with a favorable schedule in August and Sept. (YES! Keep the band tog)ether!)
Interesting note here- the Phillies actually are tied for the best record in baseball since the All-Star Break.

Don't really have a point to make, I just find it amazing.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
On the Jays, they're also the best run differential in baseball, they should be better than their record. That,plus the drought, plus aging Bautista, Edwin, Buehrle, Dickey etc... It's time to make their move.
You're right, their record should be better, although according to BP's 3rd-order standings, it's not as good as their run differential would suggest.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

The "drought"/"we need to do something to be relevant" arguments are complete mularkey to any reasonable-thinking person. Ask Padre fans what it's like to be "relevant." Ton of dead payroll! Gutted farm system! Relevance! Let's stare at Justin Upton for another day! They're great pub for GM's and almost unquestionably lauded, because the cost down the road isn't going to be felt for years, and it's a lot less tangible than David Price taking the mound.

As is the aging "_____" argument. Bautista still has prime years left. Tulo and Donaldson as well. Dickey and Buehrle need to be replaced, I don't think their age is really relevant.
Actually, on further review, this whole post is garbage (maybe more likely trolling).

The Padres have nothing do with this, the Jays aren't bringing 100 crappy outfielders and marginal upgrades, they're bringing an ace, the best SS in baseball and a reliable reliever.

The farm system was "gutted" two years ago, so it's remarkable they have so many prospects to land these guys... except they didn't empty the cupboard then and they aren't now. Does anyone honestly care about Matt Boyd and Jairo Lebourt?? Both had 3 good months, and were cashed in, neither was in the top 10 in the latest Jays MLB pipeline rankings. Sure Norris and Hoffman could be great, but Price and Tulowitzki are great.

The bullpen is massively upgraded by moving Sanchez in as the 8th inning guy and now likely Hawkins as the 7th inning guy.

And for all the prospects they traded away to the Astros/Mets/Marlins two years ago (Oh noes, they gutted the system!!), the only one anyone really gives a #### about is Syndergaard. What will they ever do having given up uber studs like Travis DL'Arnaud, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, etc... prospects are beautiful as long as they're prospects, then when you have to actually use them, most of them are ####.

And if you want to take bets on Edwin, Bautista, Martin, maybe even Tulo producing at the same level they are now, even two years from now, I'm all for it. In terms of Buehrle/Dickey needing to be replaced and age having nothing to do with it... that's the only reason Buehrle needs to be replaced. He's been ####### awesome this season, if he was 27 and signed for 5 more years that would be great, but he isn't and he's not.
My beef is only with the Price deal, and the notion that there's any sort of value in just making the playoffs. That's dumb. You're right that a lot of prospects don't amount to anything, but Price is a 5-6 WAR player, which means he's worth, what, 3 WAR ROS?
And Buehrle's xFIP is 4.01. Knock me over with a feather!
But if you have the best offense in baseball, and you add a pitcher of Price's caliber, it's no longer about just making it.

...and I think we have about 15 years worth of proof of Buehrle not being effectively measured by a lot of advanced metrics.

 
Jonah Keri wrote this about the Gomez trade, interesting to see if trading pitching prospects and holding on to position prospects is a trend or just a coincidence.

Although the Brewers can’t claim any elite prospects in the trade, their ability to land two quality young hitters is impressive in its rarity. The pitching-stocked returns for Price and Johnny Cueto represent a far more common occurrence in the current offense-challenged environment.
 
I like seeing Toronto go all-in. This wasn't a structurally sound team expecting a few more years being playoff contenders. This could be their shot for the next five years. Go for it.
Yeah, I like it for them too. Plus, it's not like Norris is a sure thing. Most pitching prospects are not. He's probably around where people thought Kyle Drabek was a few years ago, who I think the Jays turned down trading for Greinke, IIRC.

 
I like seeing Toronto go all-in. This wasn't a structurally sound team expecting a few more years being playoff contenders. This could be their shot for the next five years. Go for it.
Yeah, I like it for them too. Plus, it's not like Norris is a sure thing. Most pitching prospects are not. He's probably around where people thought Kyle Drabek was a few years ago, who I think the Jays turned down trading for Greinke, IIRC.
Sure. But it's also not a sure thing that Toronto will even make the LCS. The odds are against it (IMO). It's a game of uncertainty.

Whatever the case may be, I would not mind TOR taking it down. I like Donaldson, I've been fantasy-gay for Bautista for years, everyone likes RA Dickey, etc. Way better than those ####-eater Royals IMO.

 
I like seeing Toronto go all-in. This wasn't a structurally sound team expecting a few more years being playoff contenders. This could be their shot for the next five years. Go for it.
Yeah, I like it for them too. Plus, it's not like Norris is a sure thing. Most pitching prospects are not. He's probably around where people thought Kyle Drabek was a few years ago, who I think the Jays turned down trading for Greinke, IIRC.
Sure. But it's also not a sure thing that Toronto will even make the LCS. The odds are against it (IMO). It's a game of uncertainty.

Whatever the case may be, I would not mind TOR taking it down. I like Donaldson, I've been fantasy-gay for Bautista for years, everyone likes RA Dickey, etc. Way better than those ####-eater Royals IMO.
Yeah, that's not a sure thing either, but if you boost the chances from, let's say, 10% to 30%, I'd take it if I were a Jays' fan. They have a short window, so the odds won't be that favorable for awhile, even if Norris or another of the prospects that they traded hits.

 

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