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**2015 MLB Season Thread: This is how the chapter ends (4 Viewers)

Good Posting Judge said:
Fangraphs still giving SD a .8% of winning the division, given that LA and SF have dropped so many games. Still in it!

Most cotenders/league leaders around 8-10%: KC, NYY, TOR, STL, PIT, NYM. Except LAD, who Fangraphs' projection system loves, seemingly because of the top of their rotation.

Here are fangraphs' odds: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=current

Here are the odds if every playoff matchup is treated like a coinflip: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current
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It is an impressive top of the rotation. Greinke should win the Cy Young and is a decent MVP candidate, yet if he isn't be LAD's Game 1 starter no one will kill Mattingly for setting the rotation that way.

The other factor in LAD's favor is how strong the WC teams will be coming out of the NL Central. The Dodgers will draw the East winner in the NLDS, a weaker team overall than whomever wins the NL WC game. If the NL seeded the playoffs by straight W/L record, the Dodgers would be the road team in the Wild Card game right now against the Mets.

IMO the biggest threat to LAD not going to the Series is how close they are to missing the playoffs completely. They're only 1.5 games ahead of the Giants. Makes me hate the Dodgers even more with the way they are making me root for the Giants to get hot in September.

Regardless, the key to knocking LAD out of the playoffs this year will be the same it was last year; hope the game is competitive after 5-6 innings and try to win it before Jensen comes in. In the NLDS last year, the Cardinals scored 13 runs in the 7th innings, and 5 runs in all the other innings combined. A lot of that was a miracle comeback against Kershaw in Game 1, but Game 3 was a rally against the bullpen, and Game 4 was all about Mattingly leaving a tired starter in too long because he didn't have any middle relievers, a weakness the team still has.

 
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shadyridr said:
MAC_32 said:
pantagrapher said:
Doctor Detroit said:
I dropped Corey Dickerson in both my keeper leagues for Charlie Blackmon last year.

I haven't regretted it in the slightest. :wub:
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I still have Dickerson, but he probably won't make my keeper cut next season. I tried to deal him before the deadline but couldn't give him away. If that's how low his value is going into next season, he's going to be a steal in the draft.
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His value has bottomed out that much? I mean, I get this season being a lost cause due to his injury, but it should be healed by Spring Training.
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this year he went in the top 5 rounds. Next year he won't
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If he doesn't go in the first 5 rounds then I will pick him a round and a half ahead of his adp in every league.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Fangraphs still giving SD a .8% of winning the division, given that LA and SF have dropped so many games. Still in it!

Most cotenders/league leaders around 8-10%: KC, NYY, TOR, STL, PIT, NYM. Except LAD, who Fangraphs' projection system loves, seemingly because of the top of their rotation.

Here are fangraphs' odds: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=current

Here are the odds if every playoff matchup is treated like a coinflip: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current
Click to expand...
It is an impressive top of the rotation. Greinke should win the Cy Young and is a decent MVP candidate, yet if he isn't be LAD's Game 1 starter no one will kill Mattingly for setting the rotation that way.

The other factor in LAD's favor is how strong the WC teams will be coming out of the NL Central. The Dodgers will draw the East winner in the NLDS, a weaker team overall than whomever wins the NL WC game. If the NL seeded the playoffs by straight W/L record, the Dodgers would be the road team in the Wild Card game right now against the Mets.

IMO the biggest threat to LAD not going to the Series is how close they are to missing the playoffs completely. They're only 1.5 games ahead of the Giants. Makes me hate the Dodgers even more with the way they are making me root for the Giants to get hot in September.

Regardless, the key to knocking LAD out of the playoffs this year will be the same it was last year; hope the game is competitive after 5-6 innings and try to win it before Jensen comes in. In the NLDS last year, the Cardinals scored 13 runs in the 7th innings, and 5 runs in all the other innings combined. A lot of that was a miracle comeback against Kershaw in Game 1, but Game 3 was a rally against the bullpen, and Game 4 was all about Mattingly leaving a tired starter in too long because he didn't have any middle relievers, a weakness the team still has.
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I don't know if the Mets are any easier of a road to hoe than Pittsburgh/Chicago right now. Games are going to be close and low-scoring and are going to hinge more on good managerial decisions, which obviously works against LA.

The Dodgers have a pretty decent corps of relievers who have good peripherals, as one would expect from a :nerd: GM, but who have run into any number of problems. Hatcher's strand rate is almost 0% (it's actually like 53%). Baez has run into a bit of the same thing. They're also going to have Alex Wood or Mat Latos that they can throw back there, too. They have so much depth and so many options, but clearly Donnie's not the best guy to try and conduct that orchestra.

Still, Fangraphs loves them to get past SF, not in small part due to SF getting hit with so many injuries, and not having a ton of great options for their rotation. I'd say getting past one decent team over the course of 40 games is probably less of a minefield than winning two short series against (possibly) the Mets and one of the NL Central teams.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I don't know if the Mets are any easier of a road to hoe than Pittsburgh/Chicago right now. Games are going to be close and low-scoring and are going to hinge more on good managerial decisions, which obviously works against LA.
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Pittsburgh is the best of the three in third-order winning percentage and Baseruns.

I like what Pittsburgh did to bolster their bullpen midseason, too.

Cubs and Mets seem a bit green in the postseason experience category, but maybe that doesn't matter. IMO PIT is a notch above CHC and NYM, but that's just an O.

The Dodgers have a pretty decent corps of relievers who have good peripherals, as one would expect from a :nerd: GM, but who have run into any number of problems. Hatcher's strand rate is almost 0% (it's actually like 53%). Baez has run into a bit of the same thing. They're also going to have Alex Wood or Mat Latos that they can throw back there, too. They have so much depth and so many options, but clearly Donnie's not the best guy to try and conduct that orchestra.
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Color me skeptical. I realize the Dodgers pen could either wipe everyone out or get lit up completely and either side could argue it was luck faster than Tobias could login and scream "small sample size", but I'm comfortable calling LAD's setup men the team's biggest on-field weakness.

Still, Fangraphs loves them to get past SF, not in small part due to SF getting hit with so many injuries, and not having a ton of great options for their rotation. I'd say getting past one decent team over the course of 40 games is probably less of a minefield than winning two short series against (possibly) the Mets and one of the NL Central teams.
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I'd bet on LAD winning the West by over 4.5 games before I'd bet on SFG winning the West by any amount. Just saying it's a complication unique to LAD, as they are the only division leader facing any serious threat to missing the playoffs entirely.

I thought that "Coin Flip Mode" playoff odds was interesting. Dropped LAD from huge favorite to also-ran.

 
Also, I think you have to slot Kershaw/Greinke 1st and 2nd depending on how well the other team hits lefties. If you're in the WS against Toronto I think you give it to Greinke without a doubt, and hope you can get a 3rd start out of him (or at least an extended pen opp, like Bumgarner last year) in a G7.

But again Mattingly's kind of dumb.

 
Hanley Ramirez to 1B. The Red Sox can play an ultra shift defense with Hanley, Sandoval and Travis Shaw all playing 1B.

 
Stupid ####### H2H question. Have I mentioned I hate H2H?

I'm fighting for a playoff spot, and facing a guy this week who hasn't changed his roster in a month. I will clearly win all hitting categories (slight chance of losing AVG), but I am curious how you would play this pitching scenario. He only has one closer, so I will win Saves for the week.

Currently, I sport a 1 WIN, 15 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.58 WHIP in 10.1 IP

He has 1 WIN, 8 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.

Thing is, he has an excellent staff, and has the following guys pitching this week, nearly all great matchups. Hendricks @ SF, Greinke @ CIN, Kazmir @ MIN, Scherzer @ MIA, Quintana @ SEA

I am trying to figure out best way to counter that. I have the following available, plus the option to stream some available guys. Corbin vs STL, Nelson @ CLE, Ross vs SD, Martinez @ ARI, Jungmann vs CIN, Severino @ ATL, Fiers @ MIN, Arrieta @ LAD

I could just toss all these guys out, but am really am shooting for a 10-0 week because that would almost put me in as a lock to make the playoffs.

Thinking I might sit Corbin and Nelson tonight and see how his Hendricks does against SF. If he blows up, it makes things a bit easier. Also could kinda play a day at a time and see how his guys do and counter the following day?

Thoughts?

 
yea, there were two balls in a row hit to the OF last night that should have been caught and turned out to be a triple and a double. Gotta suck being a pitcher with terrible defense behind you.

 
Sano with a bomb in Tropicana that hits a catwalk and drops back in for a double. What an atrocious stadium.

 
Northern Voice said:
Cain will gets lots of 3rd place votes.
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I'd be shocked if Cain won. Tons of 3rd place, I agree, but between Trout, Donaldson, and Cain...one of those is not like the others.

Trout and Donaldson providing like 2 full wins more, and are both better in most of the traditional stats as well. Not all, but most.

 
Kevin Kiermaier is 19th in baseball in WAR because he is the best defensive player in the game. Hechavarria, Simmons, Michael Taylor, Alceides Escobar, Ahmed, Cespedes, Crawford, Arenado, Sal Perez, and Cain round out the list of guys who are 10+ in defensive efficiency.

Of the top 20 WAR guys only Nelson Cruz, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, and Joey Votto are negative defensive players. Three of those are 1Bman, so that's ok IMO. If you are gonna have a ####ty fielder, having him at 1B is legit.

In the earlier comments about the AL MVP, to me it's Donaldson and Cain.

Also shout out to my man Curtis Granderson, 21st in WAR and having a spectacular season in Queens. :hifive:

 
How can Rizzo be considered a negative defensive player? The eye test says much different. His range isn't the greatest but he catches just about anything hit at him, and more noticeably he has spent the season handling bad throws from Starlin Castro and Kris Bryant, awkward throws from Addison Russell (who was learning a new position), and now from Chris Coghlan, who is an outfielder.

 
Encyclopedia Brown said:
How can Rizzo be considered a negative defensive player? The eye test says much different. His range isn't the greatest but he catches just about anything hit at him, and more noticeably he has spent the season handling bad throws from Starlin Castro and Kris Bryant, awkward throws from Addison Russell (who was learning a new position), and now from Chris Coghlan, who is an outfielder.
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He's not good in the field, not at all.

Also those who use WAR as the be all, end all for determining how good a player is should consider Kiermaier as the 19th best player. Or even Joey Votto 5th, basically a watered-down version of Jason Giambi. There is no league in which Manny Machado and Andrew McCutchen aren't as good as Joey Votto.

 
Jose Altuve is 41st in WAR, five spots ahead of Mike ####### Moustakas

Charlie Blackmon is 57th, Joe Panik is 22nd

Ryan Braun is 67th, Brock Holt is 60th.

Brock Holt is 60th

Brock Holt is 60th

 
Kiermaier was a 31st round pick who until a few years ago wasn't even on the Rays prospects radar. I never remember seeing him on any prominent top-20 lists. What he has accomplished is phenomenal.

Also shows you how primitive scouting can still be in some facets. People would say he was a good defensive player, but nobody had him pegged for this.

 
Encyclopedia Brown said:
How can Rizzo be considered a negative defensive player? The eye test says much different. His range isn't the greatest but he catches just about anything hit at him, and more noticeably he has spent the season handling bad throws from Starlin Castro and Kris Bryant, awkward throws from Addison Russell (who was learning a new position), and now from Chris Coghlan, who is an outfielder.
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The truth is probably somewhere in between. Defensive metrics have flaws. They're better than they used to be, but still a long ways to go.Keep in mind though, how much of non cubs teams do you watch when they're not playing the cubs? Tough to compare when you don't see much of others.

 
Eephus said:
Jack Z fired. It's about time.
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No doubt. And it's just like Seattle to hang on to him too long. People running this franchise are maddening. Not saying we would have gotten Dombrowski, but he was available, and the Mariners came out with the statement they were still considering what to do with Jack Z at that time. What the hell changed in those couple of weeks? Nothing, so stupid. Very frustrating being a fan of this team.

 
The new regime in Seattle has their work cut out for them. There's a lot of future money tied up in Felix, Seager and Cano. They're all good players but they're not on great contracts. Iwakuma is a free agent. Nelson Cruz has nowhere to go but down. The rest of their big league roster is just a bunch of guys.

The top bats in their system (DJ Peterson, Alex Jackson) didn't have good seasons which continues a pattern of organizational problems with developing major league hitters. Houston is going to be good for a while, Oakland has been good for a while, and Anaheim and Texas can outspend the Mariners.

 
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