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2016 DYNASTY ROOKIE DRAFT (Projections) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Casting Couch
- Start date
dirtyjay
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
as much as I like Treadwell, no way in hell I would want him over Landry, atm
no other WR tickles me, despite its depth
Could be interesting if someone has the time..
build a consensus draft using multiple sources by year and month (ie for the 2015 draft a consensus for 12/2014, 01/2015, 02/2015, etc)
find the difference between consensus projections and actual and compute standard deviation
plot values with date (by month and year) on x and the standard deviation on y
I would assume it would be a negative slope but it would be interesting to see the trending and any structural changes (combine, pro days, senior bowl, etc). A position by position breakdown could also be insightful, for example if qbs were consistently over-mocked
Edit: I also wonder if consensus draft position may be more indicative of success than actual draft position
build a consensus draft using multiple sources by year and month (ie for the 2015 draft a consensus for 12/2014, 01/2015, 02/2015, etc)
find the difference between consensus projections and actual and compute standard deviation
plot values with date (by month and year) on x and the standard deviation on y
I would assume it would be a negative slope but it would be interesting to see the trending and any structural changes (combine, pro days, senior bowl, etc). A position by position breakdown could also be insightful, for example if qbs were consistently over-mocked
Edit: I also wonder if consensus draft position may be more indicative of success than actual draft position
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Pwingles
Footballguy
I see a lot of mocks with rams taking whoever would be the first wr, if this is treadwell, do you bump him down some, or stay at no1 or 2 on your board?
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Poncho
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Yes, the same way you dropped A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Calvin Johnson, Justin Blackmon, and Larry Fitzgerald for being the 1st receivers going off the board into bad situations or with unproven or crappy quarterbacks. Talent will always beat situation in the long run.Pwingles said:
Pwingles
Footballguy
sarcasm noted...
im not suggesting you pretend he is dead to you, im saying do you move the next best wr closer or slightly ahead based on immediate situation? Everyone has a price/appropriate value, is it not worth taking into consideration if he falls into a pit like the rams or the niners?
kutta
Footballguy
I'm actually thinking that Gurley and Treadwell could be the foundation for a pretty good offense in the next few years.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This is what I am thinking, and I would like to add in Austin. I don't think he will be a wr1 for fantasy, but for good years he might be a low end receiver 2 and bad years he would be a flex guy.
Look at some of the recent do not draft lists that had entire teams on it and how fast they turned it around. Jacksonville was an avoid at all costs the last couple years, Oakland was that way, 5 or so year ago Seattle was that way, now these teams have multiple guys that you can start weekly for fantasy football. Things change to fast in the NFL to downgrade college players that come into the league because of their situation.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
In my local dyno league I have picks 2,3,4, and 9.
Not anywhere near as thrilled about it as I would be most years. Will look into trading ALL of these picks for players.
Not anywhere near as thrilled about it as I would be most years. Will look into trading ALL of these picks for players.
Jeremy
Footballguy
I've got 2 and 3 in mine. I'm assuming Eliot is going #1 and I'm stacked at WR. Leaning toward either trying to trade up to 1.01 or trading for players and/or 2017 picks.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I have a good enough team to deal away for future 1sts, so going to definitely do that with at least one of the top 4 picks. But yeah, this is a great year to find someone who likes high rookie picks and land a stud, even if I would have to give up all three picks in the deal.
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dirtyjay
Footballguy
Since some are starting to talk about their team and what picks they have.
To get us back on track, I put up my Top 12 or First Round.
1. Laquon Treadwell Mississippi WR 6'3 215
2. Ezekiel Elliot Ohio State RB 6'0 200
3. Derrick Henry Alabama RB 6'3 243
4. Corey Coleman Baylor WR 5'11 190
5. Michael Thomas Ohio State WR 6'3 203
6. Josh Doctson TCU WR 6'4 190
7. Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh WR 6'2 185
8. Devontae Booker Utah RB 5'11 203
9. Will Fuller Notre Dame WR 6'0 180
10. Pharoh Cooper South Carolina WR 5'11" 201
11. De'Runnya Wilson Mississippi State WR 6'5 215
12. Alex Collins Arkansas RB 5'11 206
To get us back on track, I put up my Top 12 or First Round.
1. Laquon Treadwell Mississippi WR 6'3 215
2. Ezekiel Elliot Ohio State RB 6'0 200
3. Derrick Henry Alabama RB 6'3 243
4. Corey Coleman Baylor WR 5'11 190
5. Michael Thomas Ohio State WR 6'3 203
6. Josh Doctson TCU WR 6'4 190
7. Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh WR 6'2 185
8. Devontae Booker Utah RB 5'11 203
9. Will Fuller Notre Dame WR 6'0 180
10. Pharoh Cooper South Carolina WR 5'11" 201
11. De'Runnya Wilson Mississippi State WR 6'5 215
12. Alex Collins Arkansas RB 5'11 206
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Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
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shader
Footballguy
I'm not all that excited about Treadwell. I just don't get the hype. He doesn't seem all that fast. He does seem to have good ball skills and he's 6'3, so that's obviously good.
I actually like Doctson better in every area....except the fact that Doctson may be too skinny. I mean 6'4-190??? He needs to put on some muscle. I can't find another top WR with numbers like that. AJ Green makes him look anorexic.
Corey Coleman is my favorite.
Treadwell may end up surprising me, who knows. If he can improve his speed he may do ok. But I wouldn't call him an explosive athlete or a guy that creates big-time separation...that scares me, but I'm just started in my research and there are a lot of events in the next few months that can change things.
I actually like Doctson better in every area....except the fact that Doctson may be too skinny. I mean 6'4-190??? He needs to put on some muscle. I can't find another top WR with numbers like that. AJ Green makes him look anorexic.
Corey Coleman is my favorite.
Treadwell may end up surprising me, who knows. If he can improve his speed he may do ok. But I wouldn't call him an explosive athlete or a guy that creates big-time separation...that scares me, but I'm just started in my research and there are a lot of events in the next few months that can change things.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not ready to do more than a top 6. These guys I think are mostly situation-proof. The rest could end up rising/dropping a lot based on either pre-draft or NFL landing spot.
1. Elliott by a country mile - 98% of Gurley's potential. Skill set is closer than most will admit, and day-one 3 down back.
2. Treadwell
3. Michael Thomas
4. Alex Collins - he hasn't declared, but he seems like a no-brainer to me.
5. Josh Doctson
6. Mike Williams - also hasn't declared but their season is still going so we'll see
Biggest wildcards - Jordan Howard and Kenyon Drake. One of the reasons I stopped at 6 here is because these two guys could end up breaking into my top 12 depending how everything falls for them. To me they have the David Johnson potential of 2016 - not skill-set wise, neither is nearly so accomplished in the passing game, but production wise either/both of them could be the guy we're sitting on in December 2016 and wondering if they are a top 10 dynasty asset yet. If they get on a team with the right coaching staff and a vet(s) that get out of their way like DJ had happen, these are going to be the big bargains of this draft.
I'm very low on Henry. He'll be a high-ceiling/underground basement RB2 by virtue of his size at the goal line, but I don't think he'll end up putting up elite numbers. He doesn't move well enough laterally, and in the NFL running is all about making sure they don't hit you solidly enough. They are going to hit you, but the best RB are able to spin/slide/elude so that it's not a collision. Henry is going to take a lot of collisions. At some point his size and goal-line potential will make him the best value on the board, but I doubt he lasts long enough in drafts for me to take him. 2015 Jeremy Hill I think is his trajectory.
1. Elliott by a country mile - 98% of Gurley's potential. Skill set is closer than most will admit, and day-one 3 down back.
2. Treadwell
3. Michael Thomas
4. Alex Collins - he hasn't declared, but he seems like a no-brainer to me.
5. Josh Doctson
6. Mike Williams - also hasn't declared but their season is still going so we'll see
Biggest wildcards - Jordan Howard and Kenyon Drake. One of the reasons I stopped at 6 here is because these two guys could end up breaking into my top 12 depending how everything falls for them. To me they have the David Johnson potential of 2016 - not skill-set wise, neither is nearly so accomplished in the passing game, but production wise either/both of them could be the guy we're sitting on in December 2016 and wondering if they are a top 10 dynasty asset yet. If they get on a team with the right coaching staff and a vet(s) that get out of their way like DJ had happen, these are going to be the big bargains of this draft.
I'm very low on Henry. He'll be a high-ceiling/underground basement RB2 by virtue of his size at the goal line, but I don't think he'll end up putting up elite numbers. He doesn't move well enough laterally, and in the NFL running is all about making sure they don't hit you solidly enough. They are going to hit you, but the best RB are able to spin/slide/elude so that it's not a collision. Henry is going to take a lot of collisions. At some point his size and goal-line potential will make him the best value on the board, but I doubt he lasts long enough in drafts for me to take him. 2015 Jeremy Hill I think is his trajectory.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Yep I started 0-5 only to end the season 9-5 and lost the championship game to the team that made the playoff at 7-7.
Tex
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think oj howard made himself some money last night
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
Yes, he looked quite good - athletic, good hands and love the length at 6-6
Anyone have an idea if he'll declare?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Think people might actually be sleeping on De'Runnya Wilson in here. He's Kelvin Benjamin without the weight questions.
Milkman
Footballguy
I'm not sure he's as fast as Benjamin. There was rumors going around that Benjamin ran slow at the combine on purpose because he wanted to play with Cam. If that's true he's an idiot.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Thats a silly rumor, cant believe anyone would do that.
bud29
Footballguy
My updated top 12:
1. Ezekiel Elliott - RB - Ohio State
2. Laquon Treadwell - WR - Ole Miss
3. Corey Coleman - WR - Baylor
4. Josh Doctson - WR - TCU
5. Michael Thomas - WR - Ohio State
6. Derrick Henry - RB - Alabama
7. Will Fuller - WR - Notre Dame
8. Alex Collins - RB - Arkansas
9. Leonte Carroo - WR - Rutgers
10. Pharoh Cooper -WR - South Carolina
11. Devontae Booker - RB - Utah
12. Tyler Boyd - WR - Pittsburgh
Mike Williams goes to #3 immediately if he declares, IMO.
1. Ezekiel Elliott - RB - Ohio State
2. Laquon Treadwell - WR - Ole Miss
3. Corey Coleman - WR - Baylor
4. Josh Doctson - WR - TCU
5. Michael Thomas - WR - Ohio State
6. Derrick Henry - RB - Alabama
7. Will Fuller - WR - Notre Dame
8. Alex Collins - RB - Arkansas
9. Leonte Carroo - WR - Rutgers
10. Pharoh Cooper -WR - South Carolina
11. Devontae Booker - RB - Utah
12. Tyler Boyd - WR - Pittsburgh
Mike Williams goes to #3 immediately if he declares, IMO.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm far from a Boyd lover but think you've got him way way too low here. He's not a dynamo physically but he's got a great feel for the position. Kinda like Keenan Allenbud29 said:
Milkman
Footballguy
I'm not ready to put up any rankings but the limited tape I've seen of Mike Williams I might rank him as the #1 WR in this class if he declares. Tape looks really good. I don't know why he wouldn't declare he's going to be drafted in the 1st round unless he bombs the combine.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Milkman
Footballguy
It looks like Mike Williams is going back to school. I'm surprised myself with the injury scare he just went through.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
A lot if RBs were 3 down players in college. Elliott isn't guaranteed 3 down work in the NFL, it depends on the coach. Some coaches play RBBC come hell or high water.
cstu
Footballguy
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
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Spike
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
So I'm sure some of us have different rounds and amount teams in our drafts but a very rough Top 50 would give us a 12 team, 4 round draft plus two extras. Let's just get the names in place then we can adjust where on the list they are. Is there any viable players that were missed? Is there any players who shouldn't be on the list for a concrete reason (ie; stayed in school, aren't even likely to get drafted, etc)?
* The colors are mostly just for me but
Red=Didn't Look Good or Worse Than Expected
Blue=What I Expected or Average
Green=Impressive
Black=Yet to Watch
? = I'm Not Sure Yet
1) Treadwell - WR
2) Elliot - RB
3) Doctson - WR
4) Coleman - WR
5) Fuller - WR
6) Henry - RB
7) Collins - RB
8) Thomas - WR
9) Howard - RB
10) Lawler - WR
11) Booker - RB
12) Caroo - WR
13) Perkins - RB
14) Boyd - WR
15) Sterling Shepard - WR
16) Goff - QB
17) Lynch - QB
18) Braxton Miller ? - WR
19) Wentz -QB
20) Cook - QB
21) Garrett ? - WR
22) Pharoh Cooper - WR
23) Nick Vannett - TE
24) Kenneth Dixon - RB
25) De'Runnya Wilson - ? WR
26) Aaron Burbridge - WR
27) Kenyon Drake - RB
28) Jonathan Williams - RB
29) Austin Hooper - TE
30) Travin Dural - WR
31) Prosise ? - RB
32) Hunter Sharp - WR
33) KJ Maye - WR
34) Jacoby Brissett - QB
35) Tajae Sharp - WR
36) Cardale Jones - QB
37) Jalen Marshall - WR
38) Rashard Higgins - WR
39) Hunter Henry - TE
40) Thomas Duarte - WR
41) Dak Prescott - QB
42) Tre Madden - RB
43) Aaron Green - RB
44) Hackenberg - QB
45) Cody Kessler - QB
46) James Connor - RB
47) DJ Foster - RB
48) Chris Moore - WR
49) Josh Ferguson - RB
50) Kelvin Taylor - RB
Others:
Devon Cajuste - WR (TE)
Chris Brown - WR
Red=Didn't Look Good or Worse Than Expected
Blue=What I Expected or Average
Green=Impressive
Black=Yet to Watch
? = I'm Not Sure Yet
1) Treadwell - WR
2) Elliot - RB
3) Doctson - WR
4) Coleman - WR
5) Fuller - WR
6) Henry - RB
7) Collins - RB
8) Thomas - WR
9) Howard - RB
10) Lawler - WR
11) Booker - RB
12) Caroo - WR
13) Perkins - RB
14) Boyd - WR
15) Sterling Shepard - WR
16) Goff - QB
17) Lynch - QB
18) Braxton Miller ? - WR
19) Wentz -QB
20) Cook - QB
21) Garrett ? - WR
22) Pharoh Cooper - WR
23) Nick Vannett - TE
24) Kenneth Dixon - RB
25) De'Runnya Wilson - ? WR
26) Aaron Burbridge - WR
27) Kenyon Drake - RB
28) Jonathan Williams - RB
29) Austin Hooper - TE
30) Travin Dural - WR
31) Prosise ? - RB
32) Hunter Sharp - WR
33) KJ Maye - WR
34) Jacoby Brissett - QB
35) Tajae Sharp - WR
36) Cardale Jones - QB
37) Jalen Marshall - WR
38) Rashard Higgins - WR
39) Hunter Henry - TE
40) Thomas Duarte - WR
41) Dak Prescott - QB
42) Tre Madden - RB
43) Aaron Green - RB
44) Hackenberg - QB
45) Cody Kessler - QB
46) James Connor - RB
47) DJ Foster - RB
48) Chris Moore - WR
49) Josh Ferguson - RB
50) Kelvin Taylor - RB
Others:
Devon Cajuste - WR (TE)
Chris Brown - WR
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Borden
Footballguy
I'm having a tough time with where to put Braxton Miller. I would want to put him pretty high (mid to low teens) in my FF draft rankings but there's 3 things that really hold him back. 1) He's pretty old (turned 23 in Nov) which isn't a major issue alone but with his 2) his lack refinement at WR, I have to wonder hold long before he is an every down player. Finally, 3) he isn't that great at reading the defense and knowing where to go. I understand that this is his first year at WR and even then they had him doing all kinds of other work but he was a 3 year starter for a major school at QB. He should be better at knowing where to go.
One other thing that bother me, and usually I try not to concern myself with this, is how will the team that drafts him view him? Are they going to force him to learn how to play WR or are they just going to use him as a gimmick player?
The talent is there but I'm not sure where to put him.
One other thing that bother me, and usually I try not to concern myself with this, is how will the team that drafts him view him? Are they going to force him to learn how to play WR or are they just going to use him as a gimmick player?
The talent is there but I'm not sure where to put him.
ZWK
Footballguy
I like him a lot. He was the most productive receiver in college football this year, in the 8 games that he played. Here is what I said about him in December:
Here is how some of his stats compare with other top WRs in this class and the previous two.
Carroo also has reasonably good size and speed (estimated by nfldraftscout at 6'0", 205 lb., 4.49 40).
