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2016 FBG PDSL1 Discussion thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BassNBrew
- Start date
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
A Rex Ryan offense is usually good for 500+ rushes. Let's go ahead and give 100 of those to T-Mobile right off the bat - that leaves 400 to go around.
Best case for Shady owners is that Karlos is a flash in the pan, and Shady again serves as the workhorse with 225 carries and 40+ catches. That's a foundation for a top-10 season barring injury.
A more pessimistic (and hey, maybe even more realistic) scenario is that Karlos is pretty darn good and those carries get split right down the middle. Assuming 50 carries to other guys, that'd leave a 175-175 split - plus maybe 25-30 catches - which for a lot of other NFL RB1s would be pretty close to a full workload.
In order to really supplant Shady (again, barring injury), Karlos probably has to have something like top-15 NFL RB talent. But if he really had top-15 talent, it's extremely unlikely that he'd have gone off the NFL draft board behind 154 other guys less than twelve months ago.
I'm willing to back the collective wisdom of NFL scouting departments and say there's a pretty small chance the worst-case scenario comes to pass here.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
4.16 (64) - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB6: Hoped he might slip this far but hadn't counted on it. I like the hookup connection with Brown.
5.01 (65) - Julius Thomas, JAC TE10: Wanted a TE here and Thomas will do.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Last edited by a moderator:
FUBAR
Footballguy
Brown played well last year and I think he's a player on the rise. I had thought he was inconsistent, a big play guy but looking back at 2015, he was remarkably consistent. Never scoring less than 9.2 pts except against Seattle. The only real concern there is his geriatric QB.
Ebron was the last TE I liked remaining. He seems like he could break out, especially as they attempt to replace Calvin in presumably a committee approach. EE should get his share of extra looks. While he wasn't the TE I was targeting (was hoping ASJ would fall), he'll suffice as TE1 (TE15 taken).
It strikes me as somewhat interesting that Fresh Price took Gates and Green. Nice committee there, is he a Chargers fan? (yes I know Green is a Steeler now)
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
This is like a Bizarro World version of a Survivor League draft for me. Normally at this stage in my drafts I have at least two 23-year-olds with about 10 games of NFL experience and haven't even sniffed anyone over the age of 30.
Romo ranks 7th among all starters in ANY/A over the past five years, and he's not nearly the injury risk the Internet makes fun of him for being (last year was the first time in that span he didn't start 15+ games). Having AlMo as a reliable backfield option should take some pressure off of him this season.
Hill has one outstanding season and one mediocre one on his resume. If I win the coin flip as to which one he'll put up in '16, I've got myself a top-10 RB at a low-end RB2 price. If not, meh, that's why we go 20 rounds deep in these things.
Fresh Prince of Bel Nor
Footballguy
Yes, I am a Chargers fan, but I like to think it doesn't influence how I draft. I was actually hoping for one of the four TEs that were taken just before I was up (Walker, Fleener, Kelce & Ertz). Green has a lot of upside in that offense, but still would have preferred one of the more proven ones from that TE run.
I do find Gates ending up on a lot of my teams so far...he is usually there right around the 10/11 turn in early MFL10s, which I can't pass up at that point. I know the cliff is coming, but when he is healthy, he remains a prime target in what should be a good offense. But yes, between Rivers, Gates and Green, this is a very Chargery start for me.
I love your Murray at 4.10, BTW. He is one of the more undervalued players in these early drafts IMO. I know he was not good last year, but he will get all the touches he can handle, including the goal line and passing down work.
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
1.01 (01) - Antonio Brown, PIT WR1: I loathe picking from the #1 slot. That said, I think this is the safest pick with the highest floor.
2.16 (32) - Kelvin Benjamin, CAR WR20: Really like Benjamins upside here.
3.01 (33) - Ezekiel Elliott, (R) RB9: Elliott will be a top 10 RB this year. No top 10 RB will be available at my next pick so I swung for the fences here.
4.16 (64) - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB6: Hoped he might slip this far but hadn't counted on it. I like the hookup connection with Brown.
5.01 (65) - Julius Thomas, JAC TE10: Wanted a TE here and Thomas will do.
6.16 (96) - Tyler Lockett, SEA WR39: Capable 3rd WR
7.01 (97) - Derrick Henry, (R) RB28: No reasonable excuse to go in this direction, but I did.
(BTW, the last 6 picks were all pre-drafted and every one was my first choice in each rounds queue. Just strange, usually get sniped on someone.....)
2.16 (32) - Kelvin Benjamin, CAR WR20: Really like Benjamins upside here.
3.01 (33) - Ezekiel Elliott, (R) RB9: Elliott will be a top 10 RB this year. No top 10 RB will be available at my next pick so I swung for the fences here.
4.16 (64) - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB6: Hoped he might slip this far but hadn't counted on it. I like the hookup connection with Brown.
5.01 (65) - Julius Thomas, JAC TE10: Wanted a TE here and Thomas will do.
6.16 (96) - Tyler Lockett, SEA WR39: Capable 3rd WR
7.01 (97) - Derrick Henry, (R) RB28: No reasonable excuse to go in this direction, but I did.
(BTW, the last 6 picks were all pre-drafted and every one was my first choice in each rounds queue. Just strange, usually get sniped on someone.....)
I wasn't going to be upset with Evans if AJ Green got taken before my turn. Buying guys coming off low TD years is the smart move. Their ADP suffers too much for such an unpredictable stat. DT however I am less comfortable with. He didn't look so good and has no QB. I'd have taken Alshon.
Yeah, seemed like a pretty crazy reach to me. He went 5.03 in my WSL league. Quite the gamble.
Here's my contribution to the running commentary:
1.13 WR9 AJ Green - Hue Jackson, Jones, and Sanu are gone so I expect more passes and for AJ Green and Eifert to be the key recipients. I was yet again unable to land Eifert in round 3. So disappoint.
2.04 RB6 Doug Martin - couldn't pass on the value. Same system, age 27, finished top 3 last year. I expect this offense to take a step forward. I don't think he's a top 6 RB talent, but I do think he's a top 6 fantasy commodity.
3.13 TE8 Coby Fleener - like Martin, not a huge fan of his talent, but I can't ignore the situation. Ben Watson tore it up last year at age 35. His primary competition for targets is the very mediocre Cooks. I think Fleener at least justifies his ADP, with a good shot at top 3 in this format (2ppr TE).
4.04 WR27 Eric Decker - I love Decker and I love Gailey. He'll be productive no matter the QB. WR27 is a steal for him.
5.13 WR35 Allen Hurns - another guy that seems to be a steal. I really wanted Michael Floyd, but I can't complain with Hurns. I expect them to run a lot more this year so his targets and TDs might suffer, but he wasn't healthy last year so there will be some balancing. Even if his numbers take a dip, WR35 is still easily attainable.
6.04 QB12 Carson Palmer - I almost took him at 5.13. Was really torn between the values of him and Hurns. Can't believe he slipped to 12th. His WR trio is back and he won't be saddled with Chris Johnson getting all the carries, so this offense should actually get better.
4.13. Crabtree. I saw a huge dropoff at this point to the next guys but maybe I should have gone RB in Forte instead now. Will have to piece RB together now
5.4 Gordon. I really should have taken Forte instead and missed up my order with pre-selects. I needed a RB and he offers chance to improve in year 2
6.13. Stafford. I had a choice of 3 guys here and am great with waiting on QB because of it. Could have come back with Ryan/Eli also with next pick to make a nice duo but I have other guys I like that might be had later
7.4 DeSean. Just saw value at this point in time Ryan was my next pre-select and a few other guys still not picked in here that I thought brought value.
WR core looking pretty nice to this point. Happy with TE and know there is guys I can get to make a nice backup and QB is off to a good start. Just RB will be an issue but we will see. I wont be getting Henry in the 8th like the WSL's.
FUBAR
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
QB: Aaron Rodgers (3.07)
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
Wasn't sure where to go in the 7th after DeSean was taken. Considered a couple receivers I don't like too much at this point and one should drop. Considered three backs here including Duke (obviously) and decided his receiving ability made him an ideal RB3.
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
Wasn't sure where to go in the 7th after DeSean was taken. Considered a couple receivers I don't like too much at this point and one should drop. Considered three backs here including Duke (obviously) and decided his receiving ability made him an ideal RB3.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I don't trust Martin enough to pay RB6 prices and think Fleener would still have been there for you in the 4th, but the rest of your team is great value. Heck of a start here and really makes me wish I'd passed over a 2nd RB to grab a Hurns type in the 5th.FF Ninja said:
rzrback77
Footballguy
Team Holloway (thus far)
QB - D. Brees (QB9) 5.12 - thinking I will be drafting Brees a lot in 2016
QB - Mariota 8.5 (QB22) - risk about to jump up
RB - TJ Yeldon 6.5 (RB23) - solid rookie season and he catches better than the other JAG
RB - T.Riddick 7.12 (RB32) - caught 80 passes in 2015 and Calvin is gone
WR - M. Evans 1.12 (WR8) - was all set on taking Dez Bryant, even with his attitude and felt like settling for Evans, considered A. J. Green
WR - D. Thomas 2.4 (WR13) - was hoping one of Miller or Martin fell (FFNinja took him on pick ahead) and just could not pull the trigger on Freeman, so went WR-WR start. Most of y'all didn't like this pick and I guess it is iffy because of quarterback and drops, but I like him here.
WR - Ftizgerald WR28) - believer in Fitz as long as Palmer is the quarterback and I think they both have another great season this year
TE - Zach Ertz (TE7) - I think Ertz should easily be the Eagles #2 in targets. Would have taken D. Walker ahead of him but Bass got him first (second time he got my pick)
QB - D. Brees (QB9) 5.12 - thinking I will be drafting Brees a lot in 2016
QB - Mariota 8.5 (QB22) - risk about to jump up
RB - TJ Yeldon 6.5 (RB23) - solid rookie season and he catches better than the other JAG
RB - T.Riddick 7.12 (RB32) - caught 80 passes in 2015 and Calvin is gone
WR - M. Evans 1.12 (WR8) - was all set on taking Dez Bryant, even with his attitude and felt like settling for Evans, considered A. J. Green
WR - D. Thomas 2.4 (WR13) - was hoping one of Miller or Martin fell (FFNinja took him on pick ahead) and just could not pull the trigger on Freeman, so went WR-WR start. Most of y'all didn't like this pick and I guess it is iffy because of quarterback and drops, but I like him here.
WR - Ftizgerald WR28) - believer in Fitz as long as Palmer is the quarterback and I think they both have another great season this year
TE - Zach Ertz (TE7) - I think Ertz should easily be the Eagles #2 in targets. Would have taken D. Walker ahead of him but Bass got him first (second time he got my pick)
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Team Bass
QB - Luck (4.6) Feels like a huge steal at 4.6. He went at the 1/2 turn last year. What really changed? Easy division that lacks defense, lots of weapons, another year of experience.
RB - Freeman (2.6) Probably chasing last years points. Still he was dominant last year and will be good even with a drop off.
RB - Langford (6.6) Not sold on this pick but I think he starts. Carey had years to grab the back up role and didn't cement it. I think he will have a good opportunity to collect recpts.
RB - Matthews (7.11) Didn't want to go RB here but Matthews was to big of a value to pass up. Should be in his prime this year and Pilly should score a bunch. If he slide this late I will draft him a lot. Heck, I think he went earlier in the WSLs when Murray was still a factor.
WR - Dez Bryant (1.11) Eventually he'll live up to his billing.
WR - Floyd (5.11) I'm a little uneasy about this pick. Seems like a knucklehead but he was the best WR in Arizona during towards the end of the year.
WR - Dorsett (8.6) Really wanted Bennett here but Ref sniped me. I like explosive WR3s in this format. With 20 rounds I don't need steady at this spot
TE - Walker (3.11) Based on last year's stats he should have been drafted in the first round. He quietly out Gronked Gronk.
Feel pretty confident that I can ride these guys to success. Just need to fill in some backups
QB - Luck (4.6) Feels like a huge steal at 4.6. He went at the 1/2 turn last year. What really changed? Easy division that lacks defense, lots of weapons, another year of experience.
RB - Freeman (2.6) Probably chasing last years points. Still he was dominant last year and will be good even with a drop off.
RB - Langford (6.6) Not sold on this pick but I think he starts. Carey had years to grab the back up role and didn't cement it. I think he will have a good opportunity to collect recpts.
RB - Matthews (7.11) Didn't want to go RB here but Matthews was to big of a value to pass up. Should be in his prime this year and Pilly should score a bunch. If he slide this late I will draft him a lot. Heck, I think he went earlier in the WSLs when Murray was still a factor.
WR - Dez Bryant (1.11) Eventually he'll live up to his billing.
WR - Floyd (5.11) I'm a little uneasy about this pick. Seems like a knucklehead but he was the best WR in Arizona during towards the end of the year.
WR - Dorsett (8.6) Really wanted Bennett here but Ref sniped me. I like explosive WR3s in this format. With 20 rounds I don't need steady at this spot
TE - Walker (3.11) Based on last year's stats he should have been drafted in the first round. He quietly out Gronked Gronk.
Feel pretty confident that I can ride these guys to success. Just need to fill in some backups
Hmm, maybe, but none of those guys behind me had TEs. I saw a steep drop off between him and the next guy (solely due to volume), plus I had my eye on Decker in the 4th.
While I am not a huge Doug fan, I don't see why people are still gun shy about this guy. He admitted he let himself get out of shape after his rookie year and rededicated himself last year. Seemed like he learned his lesson. Also, the team was total crap around him until Koetter showed up and righted the ship. I think he's one of the safest bets at the position. I mean, look at the guys around him - so many question marks. I just don't trust Peterson at his age, Freeman seemed flukey to me, Charles is coming off injury with 2 competent guys behind him, Elliott is a rookie, Ingram's always hurt, Lacy we all know the story, Rawls only really played 6 meaningful games last year... I was planning to punt RB so I wanted one solid guy. Was able to snag Sims as insurance, which was an unexpected bonus.
Romo is solid, but you better pair him with someone in round 7 because he does seem to be getting fragile with age. Back injuries are worrisome. I don't like to grab QBs early in best ball leagues, so I see Romo as a good QB1.
Those two RBs both seem like good value. I worry about Hill, though. The guy's measurables were terrible making me think his rookie year was the fluke, but he'll still get touches and goal line carries. The loss of Hue Jackson is the real kicker, though. I'm not sure what to make of promoting a career QB coach to OC. I expect more passes and less running plays, but I won't be shocked if the whole offense takes a dive. Seems like the kind of under the radar change that we could look back on and say "how did we not see that red flag?" And I say this as a guy who drafted AJ Green.
I'm not a big Hopkins fans, but hard to argue against him after last year's numbers. 192 targets will be hard to match, but he seems like a really safe bet to remain near the top in this format. The Oz has to be at least as good as Hoyer. Hilton was probably a steal. Luck has to rebound, right?
Can't say much about Olsen at TE2. Safe pick which should allow you to punt drafting a backup until pretty late.
Just curious, why do you typically prefer young players in this format and avoid veterans?
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Short answer: I'm not playing for sixth place. Bass evaluated a few years' worth of these leagues and found that "floor" really didn't matter much - the highest-scoring teams overall tended to be the ones finishing at the top. I like to take big swings in the hopes of being one of those highest-scoring teams, even if it means flaming out in September if I don't call my shots.
Also, this far ahead of the season, I generally find high-risk, high-upside guys go at something resembling fair value (as opposed to my money league drafts in August where, after tearing up training camp, getting talked up by Bill Simmons, etc., they often get drafted closer to their ceiling).
So, naturally, I fully expect this team to take home the title while the rest of my teams are skydiving without a parachute.
FUBAR
Footballguy
QB: Aaron Rodgers (3.07), Alex Smith (8.10)
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
I probably went too high on both QBs but they score higher than any other position so getting a good stable here is important. Smith is always undervalued due to a perceived lack of upside. I wouldn't want him as my starter but as the backup in case Rodgers were to be injured or just have a bad game or two? He'll suffice nicely.
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
I probably went too high on both QBs but they score higher than any other position so getting a good stable here is important. Smith is always undervalued due to a perceived lack of upside. I wouldn't want him as my starter but as the backup in case Rodgers were to be injured or just have a bad game or two? He'll suffice nicely.
Fresh Prince of Bel Nor
Footballguy
Fleener was not going to make it back to you. I was bummed that I had to settle for Green. Green and Fleener may have similar upside, but I see Fleener's floor being much higher as Brees's track record with using his TE's is long and impressive.
I love the Sims pick BTW. I struggled with taking either him or Snead with my last pick. Ended up with Snead, obviously, but regret it a little.
Oh, I agree that you need to score a lot of points, but I don't think rookies are the way to do that. They feel very expensive in these leagues when people are buying guys on the hope they land in the best situation possible.Short answer: I'm not playing for sixth place. Bass evaluated a few years' worth of these leagues and found that "floor" really didn't matter much - the highest-scoring teams overall tended to be the ones finishing at the top. I like to take big swings in the hopes of being one of those highest-scoring teams, even if it means flaming out in September if I don't call my shots.
Also, this far ahead of the season, I generally find high-risk, high-upside guys go at something resembling fair value (as opposed to my money league drafts in August where, after tearing up training camp, getting talked up by Bill Simmons, etc., they often get drafted closer to their ceiling).
So, naturally, I fully expect this team to take home the title while the rest of my teams are skydiving without a parachute.
I'm not really a fan of full point PPR, but this format really makes it easy to get lucky and find a true difference maker late in the game. I recall Sproles carrying me his first year in NO and Welker being huge after a down year due to coming back early from an ACL tear. Woodhead probably carried a lot of people last year. Fitzgerald was likely a bargain difference maker, too.
Well, that's good to hear. I like Green's talent more than Fleener, but I just don't like his situation nearly as much. I got lucky and drafted Green before free agency in WSL2... got him dirt cheap at 8.12. Somebody else got Fleener at 9.14
Hindsight is a #####!I don't like Sims as a player, but hard to argue with all the targets he gets in full point ppr and I couldn't pass up the insurance of pairing him with Dougie.
Nah, Rodgers in the 3rd is a steal. I don't draft my QBs early in these leagues, but if he fell to me at 3.13 I'd have been obligated to take him.
Was a little surprised to see John Brown go before Michael Floyd. Floyd got sniped from me in WSL and I felt very defeated when I had to settle for John Brown. Floyd went 2 picks ahead of me in this league, too. Damn it.
FUBAR
Footballguy
It was a toss up IMO. I couldn't say someone taking Floyd first would be wrong, but over four years Floyd has one 1k season and one season over 60 receptions despite not missing much time and a lower reception rate. I don't remember how much of that is injury. I know it's a minority opinion when I say Brown will be the better receiver going forward, but there it is.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I think we're in violent agreement, then. I rarely draft rookies in the SL ... very rarely ... as in "picked two or three of them in my entire history in these leagues" rarely.
But I tend to be hugely overweight the second- and third-year guys who flashed in limited usage the year before, find themselves moving up the depth chart due to FA, are forgotten combine warriors from a couple years back, etc. Hell, just take a look at my final roster from WSL2 this year ...
3.07 - Cam Newton, QB CAR | QB1
8.10 - Tyrod Taylor, QB BUF | QB23
1.07 - Todd Gurley, RB LA | RB2
4.10 - Eddie Lacy, RB GB | RB15
9.07 - Javorious Allen, RB BAL | RB40
14.10 - David Cobb, RB TEN | RB53
2.10 - Brandin Cooks, WR NO | WR18
6.10 - DeSean Jackson, WR WAS | WR40
7.07 - Stefon Diggs, WR MIN | WR47
10.10 - Markus Wheaton, WR PIT | WR60
12.10 - Jermaine Kearse, WR SEA | WR69
16.10 - Seth Roberts, WR OAK | WR81
20.10 - Leonte Carroo, WR ROOK | WR104
5.07 - Julius Thomas, TE JAX | TE9
11.07 - Jordan Cameron, TE MIA | TE25
19.07 - Jace Amaro, TE NYJ | TE35
Very representative of my usual SL squad ... some "up and comers" and some "post-hype sleepers", but pretty sure there's not a single guy over age 30. Lots of guys who could be five rounds higher in August ADP, or could be going undrafted. Go big or go home.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I like the philosophy. Personally, I just look for value and usually want a few cornerstones to rely upon. But my WSL1 team reflects your plan for the most part (albeit with a couple rookies and a couple 30 year olds, but plenty of upside risk)Very representative of my usual SL squad ... some "up and comers" and some "post-hype sleepers", but pretty sure there's not a single guy over age 30. Lots of guys who could be five rounds higher in August ADP, or could be going undrafted. Go big or go home.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Tyrod Taylor
RB: TJ Yeldon, Rashad Jennings
RB: Dion Lewis, Bilal Powell
WR: Mike Evans, Justin Hunter, Pharoh Cooper
WR: Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills
WR: Reuben Randle, Tyler Boyd
TE: Gary Barnidge, Ladarius Green, Dwayne Allen
PK: Dan Bailey, Travis Coons
Def: Rams, Lions
It was the majority opinion this time last year. Everybody loved Smokey. But Floyd was going to be the starter until he dislocated his finger, missed all the preseason games, and was slowly worked back into the lineup. His production in the second half of the season leads me to believe he's going to have a big 2016.
As for explaining his lone 1k season, it's pretty easy... as a rookie he was the 3rd WR. Can't expect much there. Then he hit 1k in his second season. Then his third season was probably the worst mess at QB I've ever seen, including the Rams last year. Last year he essentially missed 4 games (first 2 games only had 2 target, missed a game due to hamstring, then played limited snaps the next week as he was eased back in). I'm not giving him a pass on week 3 - he only had 1 rec but he did get 5 targets, or week 17 where the whole team mailed it in, again only 1 rec. So including those two duds and eliminating the legitimate injured games, he had 12 games for 50/817/6. Needless to say I'm expecting a big 2016. I just couldn't pass on Decker in the 4th round for him when I thought he might slip to me in the 5th. =/
Yeah, I'm in that one with you. Loved your hashtag commentary on the draft list. I wanted Kearse. Thought he'd find a new home with more targets. You definitely got a steal with Wheaton due to the Bryant suspension.I think we're in violent agreement, then. I rarely draft rookies in the SL ... very rarely ... as in "picked two or three of them in my entire history in these leagues" rarely.
But I tend to be hugely overweight the second- and third-year guys who flashed in limited usage the year before, find themselves moving up the depth chart due to FA, are forgotten combine warriors from a couple years back, etc. Hell, just take a look at my final roster from WSL2 this year ...
3.07 - Cam Newton, QB CAR | QB1
8.10 - Tyrod Taylor, QB BUF | QB23
1.07 - Todd Gurley, RB LA | RB2
4.10 - Eddie Lacy, RB GB | RB15
9.07 - Javorious Allen, RB BAL | RB40
14.10 - David Cobb, RB TEN | RB53
2.10 - Brandin Cooks, WR NO | WR18
6.10 - DeSean Jackson, WR WAS | WR40
7.07 - Stefon Diggs, WR MIN | WR47
10.10 - Markus Wheaton, WR PIT | WR60
12.10 - Jermaine Kearse, WR SEA | WR69
16.10 - Seth Roberts, WR OAK | WR81
20.10 - Leonte Carroo, WR ROOK | WR104
5.07 - Julius Thomas, TE JAX | TE9
11.07 - Jordan Cameron, TE MIA | TE25
19.07 - Jace Amaro, TE NYJ | TE35
Very representative of my usual SL squad ... some "up and comers" and some "post-hype sleepers", but pretty sure there's not a single guy over age 30. Lots of guys who could be five rounds higher in August ADP, or could be going undrafted. Go big or go home.
I'm a big fan of the post-hype picks, but I also love me some forgotten vets. Especially 30-32 year old WRs. They get no love here.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
So upthread Ninja wrote: "Romo is solid, but you better pair him with someone in round 7 because he does seem to be getting fragile with age." Little did he know I'd already done just that 12 hours earlier. WHO'S THE NINJA NOW, B###?
Seriously, though, I really like my QB combo. Not flashy, not sexy, but plenty of fantasy points. And Eli hasn't missed a game since his rookie season, so the perfect answer to whatever durability worries Romo might inspire.
Benjamin went WR51 on average on the WSLs when there was still some chance he'd be back in the Cleveland garbage fire in 2016. Now he's got far and away the best QB of his career, on a WR corps that doesn't have much beyond Allen, in an offense that puts up plenty of yards and points. I don't know what that should mean as an ADP bump, but I'm pretty sure it should be more than four spots.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
part of me kind of thinks even though Benjamin moved to a better team, qb, offense, etc......that it may not necessarily translate into better fantasy stats than he put up last year....
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I'm in this camp. Could have gone from 1st/2nd in the pecking order to 5th (behind Woodwead, Gates, Allen, SJohn)
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Fair point, but then again Benjamin finished WR27 last year - so I'd be thrilled if all he did was repeat last year's numbers. And Woodhead, Gates and Stevie are gonna be a combined 97 years old this season, so just because Benji's behind them in the pecking order on Week 1 doesn't mean it'll be the case all year.
FWIW, I think he's a very average NFL WR and the Chargers made the classic mistake of overpaying a guy based on one career year, but if he's still going in this range come summer he'll be on a lot of my teams.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
kinda what I was saying....so yeah you should be thrilled cause he may indeed struggle to provide that type of production again....as you mentioned it may have been his "career year" so if you will draft him a bunch this summer based on him continuing that pace, you may be disappointed....on a lot of your teams...personally he is on my "avoid" list at this price because of the change in teams....his value to me has actually decreased by going to a better "real football" situation....as with the Chargers making the classic mistake, I think many fantasy owners will do the same....
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
8.16 (128) - Jay Ajayi, MIA RB36: Felt a need to strengthen this position a little bit.
9.01 (129) - Clive Walford, OAK TE19: I'm high on Walford this year and not fond of other TE options that might be available later.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
2.02 Cam Newton QB1 CAR
1.15 David Johnson RB4 ARZ
3.15 CJ Anderson RB13 DEN
4.02 Doug Baldwin WR26 SEA
5.15 Marvin Jones WR36 DET
7.15 Tavon Austin WR42 LAR
6.02 Gary Barnidge TE14 CLE
8.02 Martellus Bennett TE17 NE
At the 5-6 turn I bought in to the line of thinking that Marvin is in a pretty sweet spot. High volume passing offense that should see him have the opportunity to put up some fantasy numbers. Talent is there and think his opportunity has improved. Was pretty happy to see Barnidge still around as TE14 so that was pretty easy. Fresh Prince picking behind me already had two TE's on board, so I knew I would have my choice at second pick of turn. I'm not as high on Ebron as those thinking cause CJ left his numbers get more love. Was glad to see Rene take ASJ as well.
7-8 turn allowed me to go pretty much any direction. Austin seems to be a little underrated in these IMO so he has found his way on to some of my teams. Not gonna say the H word/name but kind like what might be brewing at TE in NE again. I feel for pretty limited investment I have a decent combo so far at TE.
So far I liked duckboys picks of jordy/eifert where he got them, like bass getting luck there, liked ruffrody's 4-5 turn, thought broncos had a nice pick with Forte where he got him, I really wanted Hurns in the 5th but ninja swiped him two picks before my Jones pick....
1.15 David Johnson RB4 ARZ
3.15 CJ Anderson RB13 DEN
4.02 Doug Baldwin WR26 SEA
5.15 Marvin Jones WR36 DET
7.15 Tavon Austin WR42 LAR
6.02 Gary Barnidge TE14 CLE
8.02 Martellus Bennett TE17 NE
At the 5-6 turn I bought in to the line of thinking that Marvin is in a pretty sweet spot. High volume passing offense that should see him have the opportunity to put up some fantasy numbers. Talent is there and think his opportunity has improved. Was pretty happy to see Barnidge still around as TE14 so that was pretty easy. Fresh Prince picking behind me already had two TE's on board, so I knew I would have my choice at second pick of turn. I'm not as high on Ebron as those thinking cause CJ left his numbers get more love. Was glad to see Rene take ASJ as well.
7-8 turn allowed me to go pretty much any direction. Austin seems to be a little underrated in these IMO so he has found his way on to some of my teams. Not gonna say the H word/name but kind like what might be brewing at TE in NE again. I feel for pretty limited investment I have a decent combo so far at TE.
So far I liked duckboys picks of jordy/eifert where he got them, like bass getting luck there, liked ruffrody's 4-5 turn, thought broncos had a nice pick with Forte where he got him, I really wanted Hurns in the 5th but ninja swiped him two picks before my Jones pick....
FUBAR
Footballguy
QB: Aaron Rodgers (3.07), Alex Smith (8.10)
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07), Markus Wheaton (9.07)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
I love it when a plan comes together.
honestly I didn't think Wheaton was going to fall to the 9th (heck, he was taken in the 7th in W1 and 10th in W2 before Bryant's suspension). But I'm glad to have him here.
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07), Markus Wheaton (9.07)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
I love it when a plan comes together.
honestly I didn't think Wheaton was going to fall to the 9th (heck, he was taken in the 7th in W1 and 10th in W2 before Bryant's suspension). But I'm glad to have him here.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I gave serious thought to Wheaton myself at 9.05 (got him in the 10th in WSL2 and that was before Bryant's suspension). Only thing that kept me from pulling the trigger on him is the suspicion that Tomlin will be using Ladarius, who is a genuine physical freak, split out as a psuedo-WR much more than Heath was, which could put a hard ceiling on Wheaton's targets.
No doubt the middle of the 9th could be crazy value for the likely #2 WR in a pass-happy offense, though.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
it was between him and Bennett for me as well....just thought with Bell back, Green in town, DHB resigned, etc., it might not be all there....not sold on him just yet....but it is for sure worth a look.....
Ah yes, I probably should have glanced at the draft board in which case I would have said, "good job pairing him with the steady but unspectacular Eli." It makes for a combo that won't carry you to a title, but it won't cost you one, either.So upthread Ninja wrote: "Romo is solid, but you better pair him with someone in round 7 because he does seem to be getting fragile with age." Little did he know I'd already done just that 12 hours earlier. WHO'S THE NINJA NOW, B###?
Seriously, though, I really like my QB combo. Not flashy, not sexy, but plenty of fantasy points. And Eli hasn't missed a game since his rookie season, so the perfect answer to whatever durability worries Romo might inspire.
Benjamin went WR51 on average on the WSLs when there was still some chance he'd be back in the Cleveland garbage fire in 2016. Now he's got far and away the best QB of his career, on a WR corps that doesn't have much beyond Allen, in an offense that puts up plenty of yards and points. I don't know what that should mean as an ADP bump, but I'm pretty sure it should be more than four spots.
Benjamin at WR47 was likely a good value, but probably not quite a steal. Things really broke his way last year - I seriously doubt he gets 125 targets this coming year, but that should be somewhat offset by Rivers' accuracy on the targets he does get. Floyd played 15 games last year and only got 69 targets despite Allen missing half the season.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'll agree with the uncertainty about Wheaton. I'm not expecting big stats for the season but a few big games is almost a certainty IMO.FUBAR said:QB: Aaron Rodgers (3.07), Alex Smith (8.10)
RB: Todd Gurley (1.07), DeMarco Murray (4.10), Duke Johnson (7.07)
WR: Brandon Marshall (2.10), John Brown (5.07), Markus Wheaton (9.07), Mike Wallace (10.10)
TE: Eric Ebron (6.10)
K:
DEF:
I love it when a plan comes together.
Wallace is a hard guy to judge. I think he can be very good with Flacco throwing the rock, Joe is easily the best deep passer MW has played with recently. I figure the two Ws will make a nice WR3BC.
rzrback77
Footballguy
I think that Benjamin and Wheaton are both excellent picks at this point in the draft. Wheaton could get more targets with Bryant suspended and he could produce better than in the past, but even if he just matches past production, he will score for you some weeks and as a deep target with Roethlisberger as his quarterback, he is likely to have a few really good weeks and post a high score.
Benjamin is similar on the Chargers roster. Yes, he will definitely be after Allen and Rivers loves Gates in the red zone, but Benjamin is another nice deep target and probably the best at that role on the Chargers. Neither Allen nor Gates has been the model of health and Gates is getting older, so Benjamin's targets could match last year and if they do, his production should be close to last year and far outperform his ADP here. The biggest concern is S. Johnson and whether he can stay healthy and productive. Over the past three seasons, he has missed four, three and six games and in his two seasons with the Chargers, he has averaged only 57 targets, 40 catches, 466 yards and 3 TDs.
Benjamin is similar on the Chargers roster. Yes, he will definitely be after Allen and Rivers loves Gates in the red zone, but Benjamin is another nice deep target and probably the best at that role on the Chargers. Neither Allen nor Gates has been the model of health and Gates is getting older, so Benjamin's targets could match last year and if they do, his production should be close to last year and far outperform his ADP here. The biggest concern is S. Johnson and whether he can stay healthy and productive. Over the past three seasons, he has missed four, three and six games and in his two seasons with the Chargers, he has averaged only 57 targets, 40 catches, 466 yards and 3 TDs.
rzrback77
Footballguy
I was confounded by Wallace's play in Minnesota. He played much better in Miami than given credit for. But ever since he left there, he has not produced. He does have the potential to regain some of his high ypc that he had earlier in his career with Roethlisberger. Flacco, as you said, has a good arm and is reasonably accurate on deep balls, so he could again take a step forward. Another good selection, particularly in best ball format.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Wallace sucks and is a POS....how he has a job after his press conference with Gibson is beyond me.....i realize somebody will always give these guys a chance and in his case think they can rekindle whatever small flame he had in PIT.....but Wallace is all about Wallace and he'll burn this bridge too and eventually find something wrong with Flacco and company....some things you can count on.....means nothing in fantasy I know, but I wish nothing but bad karma to any fantasy team that drafts this POS....
FUBAR
Footballguy
FWIW, I don't like the guy either but that doesn't factor in much in these drafts.
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
1.01 (01) - Antonio Brown, PIT WR1
2.16 (32) - Kelvin Benjamin, CAR WR20
3.01 (33) - Ezekiel Elliott, (R) RB9
4.16 (64) - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB6
5.01 (65) - Julius Thomas, JAC TE10
6.16 (96) - Tyler Lockett, SEA WR39
7.01 (97) - Derrick Henry, (R) RB28
8.16 (128) - Jay Ajayi, MIA RB36
9.01 (129) - Clive Walford, OAK TE19
10.16 (160) - Danny Amendola, NE WR60
11.01 (161) - Colin Kaepernick, SF/DEN/?? QB29
2.16 (32) - Kelvin Benjamin, CAR WR20
3.01 (33) - Ezekiel Elliott, (R) RB9
4.16 (64) - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB6
5.01 (65) - Julius Thomas, JAC TE10
6.16 (96) - Tyler Lockett, SEA WR39
7.01 (97) - Derrick Henry, (R) RB28
8.16 (128) - Jay Ajayi, MIA RB36
9.01 (129) - Clive Walford, OAK TE19
10.16 (160) - Danny Amendola, NE WR60
11.01 (161) - Colin Kaepernick, SF/DEN/?? QB29
