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2016 Oakland Raiders thread (1 Viewer)

Yah. Spending money or high draft picks on RBs is not a good move. There's a lot more above average RBs than any other position.

 
massraider said:
And really, shouldn't the advantage of having an insane offensive line not drafting a RB #14 overall?  

#14 is high man.  If we were at 28 or something, I could see it.  Maybe.
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AND let's dare to add the point that this is hopefully the last time in years that we'll have a pick in the top half of the draft.

We'll be drafting in the bottom 8 next year (let me have this moment, please ;) )

 
Looking forward, I'm hoping we find ourselves further back in the draft order next year (which would be indicative of a successful season), and I like a number of 2017 running backs at least as much as I like Elliot (admittedly, I'm far from an Elliot homer). I like the idea of finding a bonafide reliable starter for our back seven with our first round pick this year, shoring up an immediate and glaring need, and then rolling the dice next year on a McCaffrey/Fournette/Cook/Chubb.

Maybe it's because of where we've come from over the last few decades, but Reggie has earned my trust. Whether we go with Elliot/Hargreaves/Lawson/etc. this year, I feel eerily comfortable with the direction of the franchise and will have a hard time trying to find a bone to pick with any of his decisions for the foreseeable future.

Edit: Ha, same line of thought Joey. Finding ourselves in the back half of the draft for the first time in over a decade would be a victory in of itself.

 
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The only D-linemen I am interested at #14 are Rankins and Lawson (assuming Buckner and Bosa gone).  Knowing where Mario stands is a big part of it.  Otherwise, I want a corner.

 
Hankmoody said:
We've been brainwashed by this whole RB devalued thing.  RB is devalued because all the good RB's are playing other positions.

1.  Up until 15 years ago, the best athletes all played RB.  As spread QB's became more mainstream, the best athletes started playing QB.  This is the biggest drain on talent at RB.  Braxton Miller is the poster boy for this.  That guy would have never been recruited as a QB in the 90s, and his HS coach probably would have encouraged him, if not outright required him, to switch to RB (or something else, but his skillset at the time screamed RB).  Those guys just weren't accepted at QB.  Now they are funneled there.

2.  The position ages horribly in the NFL, and now career management is filtering down to the highschool/junior high levels.  Everyone knows RB's only get one second contract, they never get a 3rd big one.  Shaun Alexander is probably to thank here, because his slide was sooooo precipitous and soooo visible.  So many great athletes that would have loved to fill in at RB when that stud moved to QB now don't want to.  They play CB, S, LB because they know they can play longer and make more. 

3.  And now the rolling stone is gathering moss.  Best athletes aren't playing RB.  Second best athletes aren't playing RB.  Someone has to play RB though.  RB has become the new OL.  Used to be the last guys picked played OL.  The worst (as in less ridiculously great) athletes, the kids that couldn't run.  Derrick Henry.  6'3" 245 that guy in the 90's wouldn't ever have been allowed to play RB because Braxton Miller and Deshawn Watson would be.  Henry would be playing TE or OL/DL.  We've seen very little special talent at RB come out lately because of this slotting.

When a great talent comes along he's worth the investment.  You don't think if Marshall Faulk or LT were in this draft they would be worth a top 5 pick?  You don't think Jim Brown would pay dividends as the #1 pick to the Titans sans Murray?  It will be interested to see what happens the next few years, because we have a significant RB pipeline coming.

I do agree that the average RB we're getting today aren't worth the investment.  The NFL doesn't subscribe to the "someone has to" mantra above.  They'll just figure something else out.  NEP sets the bar here but a lot of teams are following suit.  But if Elliott ended up in New England, they would make the investment pay off in spades.
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Miles Jack is a perfect example of this. He could be an excellent RB at the NFL level.

 
massraider said:
Doug Martin, Chris Ivory, and Forte all available, and only cost money.  Not even big money.  And that's every year in free agency.  In the draft, some 3rd or 4th round back is going to make a Pro Bowl.  Let's get that guy.  
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Bolded is untrue. Forte is overcooked. Martin and Ivory (who have set the market for Murray next year, assuming Lat has a big 2016) signed for $7mm per.

The #14 pick last year signed for:  4 years, $10.9M; $6.2M signing bonus (plus a 5th year team option)

Zeke has the skillset of a young Edgerrin. And the experience to immediately contribute in 2016 and take the reins fully in 2017. He is better than Lat right now and would be a (relatively) cheap foundation back for us for the next five years.

If a different BPA according to Reggie's board falls to #14, then fine, but if Zeke is the BPA, he is an easy pick, because it's also a need for this team. There are 3rd-5th round CBs and Ss that make the pro bowl. Let's sign the AZ safeties and then get those guys.

 
LawFitz said:
Bolded is untrue. Forte is overcooked. Martin and Ivory (who have set the market for Murray next year, assuming Lat has a big 2016) signed for $7mm per.

The #14 pick last year signed for:  4 years, $10.9M; $6.2M signing bonus (plus a 5th year team option)

Zeke has the skillset of a young Edgerrin. And the experience to immediately contribute in 2016 and take the reins fully in 2017. He is better than Lat right now and would be a (relatively) cheap foundation back for us for the next five years.

If a different BPA according to Reggie's board falls to #14, then fine, but if Zeke is the BPA, he is an easy pick, because it's also a need for this team. There are 3rd-5th round CBs and Ss that make the pro bowl. Let's sign the AZ safeties and then get those guys.
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I agree with pretty much everything you said except that it is a need for the Raiders.  A game changing RB is a luxury not a glaring need.  Defense is still the glaring need and with the moves they made this offseason they now have the luxury of finding the BPA from CB, DE, DT or ILB and that guy that will help the team more than a guy like Elliott.

 
Take BPA. BPA regardless of need is how the good NFL teams build long term success. FA is what you use to fill need. 

I am happy with Murray as our RB. I would be happy with taking another if it was the BPA. I would be happy with any position as long as it is BPA. 

BPA is how the Packers end up with Rodgers while they still had Favre. Don't go chasing players in the draft because of need, at least not the first few rounds, that is for sure.

 
The Raiders have put themselves in position to draft the BPA, and I have no problem with them taking Elliott if they view him as the BPA,  I just think that the BPA will be at a position other than RB.

And I'd wager that Reggie agrees.

 
LawFitz said:
Bolded is untrue. Forte is overcooked. Martin and Ivory (who have set the market for Murray next year, assuming Lat has a big 2016) signed for $7mm per.

The #14 pick last year signed for:  4 years, $10.9M; $6.2M signing bonus (plus a 5th year team option)

Zeke has the skillset of a young Edgerrin. And the experience to immediately contribute in 2016 and take the reins fully in 2017. He is better than Lat right now and would be a (relatively) cheap foundation back for us for the next five years.
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No, it is true.  7 mill a year isn't big money.  

Big money is what QB, DL, and CB get in free agency.  The fact that you believe 7 mill is big money proves how undervalued RBs are, and how cheap they are.  7 mill is a LOT for a RB.  If we have to go into free agency to get a RB, we might pay 7 mill a year.  If we go and get a CB or a pass rusher, it's 10+ mill to get one.  

 
massraider said:
Or Marcus Peters instead of Melvin Gordon.  You can cherry pick examples form both sides.  
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Peters was taken after Gordon.  So it kind of makes my point.  Take the RB due to need, missed on the better player.  An even better example from the Calvin draft was La'Ron Landry over AP.  Or even more on point, the Vikings drafting AP over pretty much everyone else on the board.  They had Chester Taylor that year and everyone was riding his jock about how he was "fine" and they didn't need an RB and should have drafted a different position they needed more.  They ended up with a guy that changed how teams had to defend that offense.

If we get a chance at a guy like that, we HAVE to take it.

I don't think Elliott will actually be there, so it's kind of moot, but I will never stop touting BPA regardless of position over need every time. 

Enough of this nonsense back and forth, I'm going to bask in the optimism that's finally here (and justified) and get stoked for the draft.

 
Chadstroma said:
Take BPA. BPA regardless of need is how the good NFL teams build long term success. FA is what you use to fill need. 

I am happy with Murray as our RB. I would be happy with taking another if it was the BPA. I would be happy with any position as long as it is BPA. 

BPA is how the Packers end up with Rodgers while they still had Favre. Don't go chasing players in the draft because of need, at least not the first few rounds, that is for sure.
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BPA should be the rule.  But it doesn't exist in a vacuum.  If Wentz is there at #14, we ain't taking him.  

 
I'm really hoping both QBs, Elliott, and a WR go in front of us.  That would make me happy.

I must admit, the idea of adding Elliott to that line is pretty great.  But should we be more excited to see Murray behind that line?

 
massraider said:
No, it is true.  7 mill a year isn't big money.  

Big money is what QB, DL, and CB get in free agency.  The fact that you believe 7 mill is big money proves how undervalued RBs are, and how cheap they are.  7 mill is a LOT for a RB.  If we have to go into free agency to get a RB, we might pay 7 mill a year.  If we go and get a CB or a pass rusher, it's 10+ mill to get one.  
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$7mm for slightly above average RBs (Ivory/Martin) in their prime. How much would Forte have gone for if this were four years earlier in his career? How about Edge? Or Shaun Alexander? I won't mention HOFers like AP/LT2 because I don't think Elliott is in their class, but I do believe he's in the same category (talent-wise) as Forte/Edge/SAlex. 

Yes, elite RBs still cost less than elite CBs, so if there is a CB on the board that is BPA at 14, then go for it. But if we're grabbing a guy who's going to be slightly above a JAG just because we have a "need" at CB (we really don't with Smith/Amerson/Carrie), then it's a mistake IMO.

 
tangfoot said:
I would be shocked if the Raiders have Wentz at #14 on their board.
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I have to think one/both of these QBs are top 15 on most boards.  There's a group of about 20 prospects that are all in a mix after your Bosa/Ramsey/Jack/Buckner/Tunsil/Elliott types.

 
massraider said:
I have to think one/both of these QBs are top 15 on most boards.  There's a group of about 20 prospects that are all in a mix after your Bosa/Ramsey/Jack/Buckner/Tunsil/Elliott types.
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But not to a team that already has "the answer" at that position.  Those boards aren't made in a vacuum.

 
While I highly doubt a guys like Hargreaves or Mackensie Alexander slip to us at 14, I can see LBs/DE/DT/CBs like Reggie Ragland, Spence, Sheldon Rankins, Nkemdiche, Buckner, Reed, Apple, Robinson, and Floyd being there. 

I can't decide whether any of these guys is better or worse than Elliott -- RB is not a need, but he is ready to play immediately in the NFL, brings a one-cut, downhill, physical style runner who can get those short yards and doesn't go down on first contact who can complement Murray well.

If Elliott is there for us, is he actually a safer pick than any of the guys I mentioned, or anyone else you think will be there and that the Raiders should consider at #14

 
Sitting at 14 with the Rams directly behind us and the QB-needy Bills and Jets at 19 and 20 also opens up some possibilities. If two of the top three QBs get taken ahead of us, I'd be on the phone with those three teams trying to get one of them to trade up to our spot for that last QB.

 
tangfoot said:
I would be shocked if the Raiders have Wentz at #14 on their board.
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As much as BPA- I think QB, P and K are the exceptions for the rule. QB in as much as if you have a young franchise QB you can skip and P and K should be self explanatory. So, yes, it does not exist in a complete vacuum. Further, it is not just pure talent but scheme and value of position that is taking into consideration. That is part of the BPA in my view and very different from drafting based on needs.

 
Really, I wonder if the team couldn't improve its offense with a player like this.  The team received no real output from Reece, Jones, Streater, and Helu.  

That's four players that were healthy (maybe not Helu) that are all replaceable.  That's a lot of skill position players to not get much from.  And free agency doesn't have much left.  

I was hot for Phillip Dorsett last year, and love a Pharoh Cooper or Bralon Addison this year.  The team can use a backup or three that adds another dimension.  I'm not even taking about KR, let's just give DeBose that roster spot to try and keep it simple.  

Streater to me, was beaten out at the position he can play, which is outside.  The team had three better guys that stayed healthy all year.  Holmes beat him out.  Strater can't play slot.  Roberts was only guy who did regularly, although Cooper did it a ton.  

Think we going to see a lot of new faces at skill position in the later rounds/UDFA.

 
Chadstroma said:
As much as BPA- I think QB, P and K are the exceptions for the rule. QB in as much as if you have a young franchise QB you can skip and P and K should be self explanatory. So, yes, it does not exist in a complete vacuum. Further, it is not just pure talent but scheme and value of position that is taking into consideration. That is part of the BPA in my view and very different from drafting based on needs.
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When you break down positional value it also is not in a vacuum.  Who is already on the roster along with their age and contract status are part of that calculus.  So you can never really move the BPA needle too far away from team need.  

DBs and an MLB seem like the biggest team needs (a good DE would help make up for lacking either) which is good because I think that will line up well with BPA in this draft.

 
I love seeing this thread bumped to the top of the page but is it only me that's disappointed every time the new post isn't about a new safety we've signed.

:)

Love massraiders post about Helu and Streater not really contributing much. I agree that we should see some skill position "values" drafted late in this year's draft.

But I do think that Jones actually had a nice spark whenever I remember him entering the game.

And maybe I have rose colored homer goggles on, but Reese can do no wrong for me. Whenever he makes a nice catch out of the backfield for a screen that gets 7 yards, I always wonder why we don't mix him in a little bit more since he always seems to produce when called upon.

 
joey said:
I love seeing this thread bumped to the top of the page but is it only me that's disappointed every time the new post isn't about a new safety we've signed.

:)

Love massraiders post about Helu and Streater not really contributing much. I agree that we should see some skill position "values" drafted late in this year's draft.

But I do think that Jones actually had a nice spark whenever I remember him entering the game.

And maybe I have rose colored homer goggles on, but Reese can do no wrong for me. Whenever he makes a nice catch out of the backfield for a screen that gets 7 yards, I always wonder why we don't mix him in a little bit more since he always seems to produce when called upon.
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It looks like Oakland is paying Reece $2.6 million this year and he has a $3.5 million cap hit.  Seems like a lot for a guy who, IIRC, has a 4 game suspension coming up and looked like they were phasing out in favor of Jamize Olawale.

 
Chaka said:
It looks like Oakland is paying Reece $2.6 million this year and he has a $3.5 million cap hit.  Seems like a lot for a guy who, IIRC, has a 4 game suspension coming up and looked like they were phasing out in favor of Jamize Olawale.
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Both you and joey make interesting posts. Like joey, I think Reece has been long underutilized, and has proven himself both a reliable (arguably above average) starter, and as a productive situational player. But no question the team has given Olawale more chances to get involved, and he brings a similar size (both are 6'1 but I think Olawale is about 10lbs lighter) and skill set (hard nosed running, elusiveness and speed, and great hands out of the backfield). 

With Olawale 4 years younger, and with Reese's relatively higher wallet hit (Olawale's 2016 salary is $1.6M [base+roster bonus] with a cap hit of $2.2M), may make sense to take a Pete Carroll/John Schneider next man up approach and be comfortable with letting very solid players who are getting past prime go in favor of reallocating that money better and ride the younger, similar product. 

FWIW, I think Reece only will sit out 3 games this season, as one of the four games was served in 2015 

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Both you and joey make interesting posts. Like joey, I think Reece has been long underutilized, and has proven himself both a reliable (arguably above average) starter, and as a productive situational player. But no question the team has given Olawale more chances to get involved, and he brings a similar size (both are 6'1 but I think Olawale is about 10lbs lighter) and skill set (hard nosed running, elusiveness and speed, and great hands out of the backfield). 

With Olawale 4 years younger, and with Reese's relatively higher wallet hit (Olawale's 2016 salary is $1.6M [base+roster bonus] with a cap hit of $2.2M), may make sense to take a Pete Carroll/John Schneider next man up approach and be comfortable with letting very solid players who are getting past prime go in favor of reallocating that money better and ride the younger, similar product. 

FWIW, I think Reece only will sit out 3 games this season, as one of the four games was served in 2015 
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They may be holding onto Reece, obviously because he is a very solid backup option if something happens to Latavius, but also because they may need to make the minimum cap spending limit.  Not sure where that stands but that was my initial thought.

 
Chaka said:
They may be holding onto Reece, obviously because he is a very solid backup option if something happens to Latavius, but also because they may need to make the minimum cap spending limit.  Not sure where that stands but that was my initial thought.
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Any player I think they might cut, like Helu, or SeaBass, or Reece, week 1 is the deadline.  They don't need that cap room now, so it makes  no sense to cut them.  

If the plan is to have Olawale be the only FB, or for Tavecchio to take over at kicker, you hang on to the vet until the last minute, and then cut him.  If Olawale gets injured, you have Reece.  If they gain that cap room right before the season, they can use it to extend Amerson or Latavius, or roll it over.  Hang onto them until you SURE you don't need them.

 
There's also the line of thought that you release those kinds of vets EARLY because they're respected, long time members of the team and "deserve" an early release to have more time to find another gig.

who knows. Just saying....

 
LawFitz said:
Dang, OG Coop is struggling...

http://www.mercurynews.com/raiders/ci_29656550/former-raider-struggles-keep-his-mind-right

The quote above scares the #### out of me with regards to the future of this league.
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Not surprising. Just this week the NFL admitted there is a relationship between football and CTE. http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/14982032/nfl-admission-football-lead-brain-disease-came-amid-new-science-suggesting-sports-related-trauma-becoming-more-common

The pool of future NFL players just shrunk dramatically. People who ##### and moan about trying to make the game safer are clueless. The game we know must change or die. 

Back to your regularly scheduled programing. 

 
Dunno where he is projected to go or how his recovery is going but how do you chaps feel about Reggie going after RB Jonathan Williams 

 
LawFitz said:
I knew there was a reason I didn't care for Hargreaves and Jackson...

http://nfldraftreport.sportsblog.com/posts/14394009/the-nfl-draft-report-s--by-the-numbers--series---before-an-nfl-general-manager-drafts-a-cornerback-in-the-first-round--they-might-want-to-check-out-these-numbers.html

Based on these analytics, I want nothing to do with those two Phillip Buchanon / Fabian Washington wannabes.

Looks like Eli Apple is the value CB in this draft. Hope we can get him in rd 2.
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That guy put a lot of effort into DB draft history only to exclude guys like Deion Sanders and Charles Woodson presumably because they weren't top three picks (Deion was 5th and Woodson was 4th).  Kind of demonstrates the silliness of arbitrary cut-off points.

Alexander still seems like a pretty good player according to that analysis.

 
Chaka said:
That guy put a lot of effort into DB draft history only to exclude guys like Deion Sanders and Charles Woodson presumably because they weren't top three picks (Deion was 5th and Woodson was 4th).  Kind of demonstrates the silliness of arbitrary cut-off points.

Alexander still seems like a pretty good player according to that analysis.
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So he compares each player to each other, but where's the cutoff numbers, the historic data that tells us these numbers are bad vs. player X from yesteryear?  How do these numbers compare to Hayden, or Marcus Peters, Richard Marshall?

If I'm seeing data that says: these numbers are the ones put up by bust CBs, and these numbers are the ones put up by good CBs, then that's great.  Like FORCE data for pass rushers:  http://playmakermentality.com/2016-force-players  This uses athletic data to try and forecast which pass rushers don't have the athletic ability to be true edge rushers.  It's pretty impressive, historically.  

 
Mayowa and Autry are great examples of Reggie Mac's scouting talent. Dude is loading our roster with hits at the front and back of the draft, free agency and waiver wire. Big Mac has been a revelation. Props to Mark for hiring the man and for sticking by him when so many were calling for his head a couple years ago.

 
LawFitz said:
Mayowa and Autry are great examples of Reggie Mac's scouting talent. Dude is loading our roster with hits at the front and back of the draft, free agency and waiver wire. Big Mac has been a revelation. Props to Mark for hiring the man and for sticking by him when so many were calling for his head a couple years ago.from the date of his hiring through September 2015.
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LawFitz said:
I knew there was a reason I didn't care for Hargreaves and Jackson...

http://nfldraftreport.sportsblog.com/posts/14394009/the-nfl-draft-report-s--by-the-numbers--series---before-an-nfl-general-manager-drafts-a-cornerback-in-the-first-round--they-might-want-to-check-out-these-numbers.html

Based on these analytics, I want nothing to do with those two Phillip Buchanon / Fabian Washington wannabes.

Looks like Eli Apple is the value CB in this draft. Hope we can get him in rd 2.
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I don't get the love for Apple. I watched two game tapes and he doesn't make a single play. Honestly. Piss poor tackler and his cover skills are lacking. Big pass IMO.

 
Chaka said:
the date of his hiring through September 2015.
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I don't think that's true.

I think the big turning point was the 2014 draft. There were plenty of people that thought he absolutely killed it in that draft including myself. I was even higher than most on their draft because I thought McGill was an interesting prospect with a lot of upside even though he hasn't quite panned out. 

It's a good reminder to those people that are tempted to rush in and say in April nobody knows if you had a good draft until years later blah, blah,blah. Everyone thought Mack/Carr/Jackson/Ellis was great from the day after the draft. That's when I remember the criticism of the franchise(at least from outside the fan base) slowing to a trickle. The next FA period they signed Hudson and I kind of felt anyone that was paying attention couldn't be critical of the direction they were going.

That first wave of FA was a bit of a trainwreck so he got heat up until April 2014.

 
BoltBacker said:
I don't think that's true.

I think the big turning point was the 2014 draft. There were plenty of people that thought he absolutely killed it in that draft including myself. I was even higher than most on their draft because I thought McGill was an interesting prospect with a lot of upside even though he hasn't quite panned out. 

It's a good reminder to those people that are tempted to rush in and say in April nobody knows if you had a good draft until years later blah, blah,blah. Everyone thought Mack/Carr/Jackson/Ellis was great from the day after the draft. That's when I remember the criticism of the franchise(at least from outside the fan base) slowing to a trickle. The next FA period they signed Hudson and I kind of felt anyone that was paying attention couldn't be critical of the direction they were going.

That first wave of FA was a bit of a trainwreck so he got heat up until April 2014.
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Okay maybe it was only Raiderfan32904

 
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